The Phillies made a big acquisition to their rotation, announcing they’ve acquired Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. It’s a two-for-two trade sending Luzardo and minor league catcher Paul McIntosh to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba and outfield prospect Emaarion Boyd.
Luzardo, 27, is coming off something of a lost season but was among the most coveted starters available on the trade market as recently as last winter. The southpaw made just 12 starts in 2024 due to a lumbar stress reaction and struggled when he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 5.00 ERA (91 ERA+) in 66 2/3 innings of work. While Luzardo maintained a solid 8% walk rate, his 21.2% strikeout rate was far below his career norms and his fastball velocity was more than a tick below where it was in 2023.
Even with those warts, however, it’s easy to see why Luzardo would be an attractive addition to the rotation for the Phillies. In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.
While there’s no guarantee Luzardo will be able to recapture that ace-level production he flashed prior to his injured 2024 season, the Phillies won’t need to rely on him for front-end production. Instead, Luzardo joins an incredibly deep Phillies rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez. Even a fully healthy and effective Luzardo would slot in as the #2 starter in that rotation between Wheeler and Nola, and even if the southpaw merely pitches to the peripherals (4.23 FIP, 4.33 SIERA) he posted during his injury-marred 2024 campaign he’d be a noticeable upgrade over Taijuan Walker, who pitched to an ugly 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work this past season.
The Phillies have been known to have interest in adding rotation help this winter, though that was generally expected to come in the form of a depth piece who could pitch out of the bullpen or give Walker competition for the fifth starter spot, not unlike the club’s signing of right-hander Spencer Turnbull last winter. The acquisition of a player with Luzardo’s talent and pedigree obviously goes well beyond that, however, and surely pushes Walker into a long relief role to open the season assuming the rest of the rotation is healthy.
Adding Luzardo also eases the club’s long-term need for rotation help, as he’s under team control for the next two seasons. With Suarez scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, it’s possible that the addition of Luzardo allows the Phillies to rely on some combination of Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter to round out their 2026 rotation. That would push the need for an additional starter off to the 2026-27 offseason, at which point both Walker and Luzardo himself will be eligible for free agency.
For now, though, Luzardo is a cost-controlled addition to the Phillies’ rotation who figures to raise the group’s already impressive ceiling considerably. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Luzardo for an arbitration salary of just $6MM in 2025, a figure that pushes the Phillies’ payroll to the $285MM range and their luxury tax payroll up to $304MM per RosterResource. Notably, that pushes them past the highest $301MM tax threshold for next season, at which point the club is taxed at a 110% rate on any overages beyond $301MM in addition to their highest pick in the 2026 draft being pushed back ten spots.
In terms of the actual financial cost, then, bringing Luzardo into the fold figures to cost the Phillies something closer to $10.5MM between the southpaw’s salary and the tax bill that comes with it. It’s an unprecedented level of spending for the Phillies, and it’s not clear how much more room the club will have to manuever as it seeks to make further upgrades. Perhaps that’s why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested the club was unlikely to make further major additions earlier this week, with a swingman for the pitching staff and a bench piece for the lineup highlighted as the club’s remaining priorities. The addition of Luzardo likely eliminates the need for a swingman by pushing Walker into that role, of course.
For the Marlins, the prize in this deal is Caba. Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s #81 prospect in the game and #54 at Baseball America, Caba just celebrated his 19th birthday earlier this month and looked solid in complex league play this year with a .254/.427/.335 slash line. While he offered little power, he walked more than he struck out and stole 37 bases in 45 attempts across 225 plate appearances at the level. Caba was promoted to Single-A down the stretch and struggled badly with a .179/.304/.190 slash line in 115 trips to the plate, though he still recorded more walks (16) than strikeouts (15). While he’s roundly projected for below-average power by prospecting services, he’s regarded as having the potential to be a special defender at shortstop and his impressive knack for plate discipline should give him a solid offensive floor.
Boyd, meanwhile, was the Phillies’ 11th-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 21-year-old hit just .239/.317/.331 in 400 trips to the plate at the High-A level in 2024, though he’s stolen 83 bases over the past two seasons due to elite speed and is regarded as a potentially plus defender in center field due to his wheels. That was enough to make him the #23 prospect in the Phillies organization, according to Pipeline. That said, Boyd currently offers minimal power and has a below average hit tool, though his contact-heavy approach and potential to grow into a little more power as he physically matures is enough to keep him on the radar as a potential big league contributor.
Also in the deal is McIntosh, who joins Luzardo in heading from Miami to Philadelphia. The 26-year-old isn’t considered to be much of a prospect, having been selected by the Marlins in the 34th round of the 2018 draft. He slashed .246/.340/.385 in 117 games with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Pensacola this past season. For the Phillies, McIntosh should offer a solid glove-first option behind the plate to help guide the club’s young pitchers in the upper minors and perhaps provide some depth behind the club’s big league catching corps.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Phillies were acquiring Luzardo. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald was first to report that Miami was acquiring Caba and Boyd. Matt Gelb of the Athletic had McIntosh’s inclusion.
raysfan03
Wow
tom brunanskys black sock
Owen Wilson, I love your work. You’re great in Bottle Rocket!
DarkSide830
waow
TrillionaireTeamOperator
The Minus Man is Wilson’s least known and most underrated flick.
tom brunanskys black sock
@trillions
Actually just rewatched that, for the first time since probably shortly after it was released, a couple months back and I couldn’t agree more. Alanis Morisette is also really good in it!
tom brunanskys black sock
* Sheryl crow lol
TrillionaireTeamOperator
OH right Sheryl Crow acted in that randomly!
Yeah it was one of those random blockbuster finds. I don’t think Wilson was famous yet- I recognized Crow and couldn’t believe it was her just, ya know, acting in a movie.
But yeah- a fun, small, effective little thriller.
I loved stumbling across those on the shelves of blockbuster.
Different era.
Baseballisthebest
Well, that’s ironic.
Buckner
Marlins get… who??
tom brunanskys black sock
@ BuckBuck
They got Pat Rapp and Bret Barberie
Buckner
@tom brunanskys black sock — Maybe they can coax Jeff Conine out of them too. He’s not 60 yet.
Rsox
To be fair Pat Rapp and Brett Barberie represent upgrades to the current roster, add Bob Natal, Darrell Whitmore, and Nigel Wilson and the Marlins can call it a successful offseason
Unclemike1526
Yeah well with Hoyer they were talking about Caissie and Triantos and with Dombrowski the prize was #81 prospect. Unfortunately that says more about Hoyer than anything else as he was probably willing to do it. Which is why he shouldn’t be allowed to trade any more top prospects without permission. He probably would have done it so thanks to the Phillies.
Dogbone
@unc
I agree to a degree. Including Smith was a completely boneheaded move. An apparent lack of creativity on the part of the FO. As well as a vast overpay for one guaranteed year of Tucker.
And I say that with the realization that Tucker is probably a top 10 player in the game.
phillyphan81
Saba is a legit prospect
Unclemike1526
The point was with the Cubs they were asking for like the 30th and 50th top 100 prospects and with Dombrowski they took 81 and a prayer, Which by the way was the realistic goal for a P who’s been injured most of his career, But Hoyer was probably dumb and desperate enough to save his job to do it. Why you should never have a POBO who is in his last year of his contract pulling the strings. Either re sign him or get rid of him before he can do any long term damage, Which he already has by the way.
Dogbone
A legit prospect, without power, hummm?
Cat Mando
Plus the Phils have 3 ss prospects above him.
kgcubs
Aloha uncle agreed!
I was so worried that Hoyer was going to give Miami Caissie or Triantos with Rojas. Just something stupid to stay “relevant” in this off season cycle.
And again, I’m not against trading away top prospects but it better be well thought out with a plan and long term benefit for our Cubs.
There’s still no guarantees Tucker signs an extension or resigns via free agency. I’m amazed at all the Cub fans who say they don’t care if Tucker doesn’t come back after 2025, it doesn’t matter so much talent was given away for a rental. They, needed this now to look forward to watching in 2025. But they aren’t looking ahead, pass 2025. I think there’s a way to do both. We’ll see how it goes after Roki’s decision. Mahalo
Unclemike1526
Well the Cubs should be doing business as usual and with Roki he should be considered the cherry on top of the Sundae, Fine if you get him but the finished product should be good without him, Awesome with him. Sign Tanner Scott and Walker Buehler. It would only take money, And no top prospects. Roki would be awesome and maybe you can even think about dealing Steele to get some prospects back. Steele is fantastic, Don’t get me wrong, But he was a late bloomer and won’t hit FA until his early 30’s. So not a lot of wear and tear but high end. Maybe even flip him for Cease. Just spitballing. Roki-Tallion-Shota-Cease-Boyd-Buehler-Assad-Brown-Wicks-Killian-Horton-Birdsell-Noland. You can still go like 10 deep and have options. I can live with that. Present and future. Then re sign Cease hopefully. Better odds than Tucker.
bwmiller79
I agree, I like Caba, he has to be the player of interest for the Marlins. But in all honesty, it’s a good trade for the Phillies.
Got a decent MLB ready SP with upside for a good prospect.
Marlins might have done better letting Luzardo throw the first half of ’25. The fact that they have a number of good pitching prospects on the farm makes it a good deal for Miami, opens up a spot in the rotation and Caba is a nice player. Didn’t get greedy, got a good one. Miami on the rise with this trade
websoulsurfer
How much power did Ozzie Smith have? Or Andrelton Simmons?
websoulsurfer
The Phillies had 3 people on the depth chart above him at SS, Turner, Stott, and Miller. not 3 prospects. In terms of prospects, only Aidan Miller was above him as a SS.
websoulsurfer
Cubs were being asked for those guys until Luzardo’s medicals were rejected by the Cubs. Then the Marlins had to pivot and they got a really good SS prospect, just one that is 3 years away from playing in the majors.
Cat Mando
websoulsurfer
looking at the top 30 prospects on the Phillies site…….
Miller #1, Saltiban 2b/ss #8, Rincon #9. Caba?
towinagain
Kudos to the Phillies. All these moves the Padres should make.
Padres haven’t done a thing thanks to stingy ownership.
murphy8
Actually it’s because their owner just unexpectedly died and they don’t have a tv deal but sure, sure
LFGSD619
@murphy8 It wasn’t unexpectedly.
3 finger split
So buy the team and show everybody how it’s done.
The question I have for you is…who are you going to trade to get a question mark pitcher back?
The Marlins are rebuilding and you would think they would want to keep their pitching unless of course they don’t think he will be back to his prior performance level.
deweybelongsinthehall
Anyone know his home and road splits? I always worry about a pitcher going from a big park to a bandbox.
Baseballisthebest
3 finger, I was actually surprised that any team would give up a top prospect for a pitcher that has been injured as much as Luzardo and just mediocre when healthy.
JoeBrady
I always worry about a pitcher going from a big park to a bandbox.
========================
That would be my concern as well. I think his road ERA is maybe 4.57. Miami and Oakland are nice places in which to pitch.
Brew88
Brother of Peter, John Seidler, will take over as owner Chairman, with no change. Padres are in great shape, especially for a mid market team. Lack of moves this off season is only due to awaiting decision by Roki Sasaki, after which all the dominos will fall.
KnicksFanCavsFan
@Brew
By January 15, it’s likely that there aren’t any more options left.
kevnames42
@brew88 why would they need to wait for Sasaki to pick? He’s only gonna cost as much as the international spending pool allows. Will hardly affect their payroll
towinagain
Exactly.
towinagain
@brew there will be no dominoes left to fall.
Sasaki shouldn’t factor into spending.
Brew88
@towinagain. There are finite resources with every team, except maybe 3. Your team is not one of those three and never was.
It’s not about adding to payroll with Roki, he’ll be league minimum, it’s about building a roster. Adding Roki goes a long way towards setting up the SP rotation for years. If they get him they have more flexibility to trade other guys ( maybe Cease) to fill holes at C, DH, LF, SP with more years of control etc… They can’t trade Cease now, because they will really need him if Roki goes elsewhere.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Bendix told Sherman, “I got you a ‘Star’”.
Bart Harley Jarvis
This move by the Phillies, coinciding with The Jesus Lizard reunion tour, is big news!
rollingstone.com/music/music-news/the-jesus-lizard…
roob
A steal for Philly!
tigers182
Thankfully, somebody is doing something
Blue Baron
tigers: Have you been asleep? Teams have been making moves every day this past week.
tom brunanskys black sock
Sometimes the moves not made yield the greatest positives.
ray1
Glad that the Cubs didn’t give up too much.
murphy8
Hopefully this was sarcastic..
rondon
Why? The rumors were they wanted Cassie, arguably their top outfield prospect. For a guy, regardless of talent, is an injury waiting to happen and they already signed Boyd- another injury risk.
Eric Olson 2
The Cubs sent their top three prospects to the Marlins for One Leg Jake Grufter, he’s the Phillies top 4,843 prospect of the Phillies. Even though he’s only got one leg, he’s a speedster on the base paths. His unique fielding style is of Gold Glove caliber quality even though he has no arms or Hands, he is still able to twist his body towards the ball, scopes up the ball with his chest then arch his back as far back as he can to a unnatural position backward and with quick throw to first
gbs42
Grufter might be the first Cubs player who wasn’t all there since Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown, unless you count Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams and his mental lapses
JV
Dombrowski never sits on his hands! If Luzardo’s back is better…should be a great deal!
Boz32
The guy was a Phillies killer in 22 and 23.
HopefulTwinsFan
Phillies have one of the most underrated rotation in baseball. I didn’t see this move coming.
Dave Dombrowski’s been busy. Wonder if they’re planning to move a rotation piece and an outfielder in the coming days with this and the Kepler acquisition.
WadeBoggsWildRide
Hopeful – They can afford to keep OF and SP depth.
Poolhalljunkies
You feel THAT rotation is underrated?? I think most recognize them as maybe the best along with Seattle and a couple others
stevetampa
Yes. The rotation was highly rated even before the Luzardo acquisition.
Johnny Devil
Nola numbers after the all-star game were brutal and Suarez was a nightmare. Sanchez is the number 2 and he got his money not Suarez. Hopefully this kid is healthy, Suarez and his aching back can be dealt.
RichieofAshburn
Could be Ranger becomes trade bait
AaronJudgeMVP29
Damn, didn’t predict an in division trade.
Lindor's Bodyguard
* Marlins are an exception to the usual meaning of trading in division.
case
In division doesn’t matter too much if the plan is to be terrible forever. They had a real playoff scare a few years back but fortunately ownership was able to shake up the front office and get them back on track.
This one belongs to the Reds
Successful teams with good GMs always have a plan and work to make their team better. Others sit on their hands, have no plan, and make moves out of desperation.
Baseballisthebest
Meaning the Reds as the latter?
rondon
I agree, but this isn’t really a plan per se.. It’s more of a hope. You can’t really plan for a guy with an injury history like his.
dazedatnoon
5 teams are going for it, the rest…..not so much
This one belongs to the Reds
Well, they also have the resources to go for it more than most people.
That being said, you don’t have to always spend a ton to make improvements if you are smart.
Psychguy
Pirates owner has the resources, but never really players to the FA market.
This one belongs to the Reds
Well, they only have the minimum local TV deal compared to hundreds of millions that those guys have, so they can’t play much.
Never Remember
They could actually spend their own money rather than pocketing the hundreds of millions in profits hidden by not having to open their financial books
Psychguy
The owner is worth $1.1 billion dollars. He can’t afford some top FA? Why?
VonPurpleHayes
This was a trade. Literally every team had the resources to do this.
This one belongs to the Reds
Reading is a skill. Psych was talking about the FA market not trades.
But yes, anyone could have made this deal.
VonPurpleHayes
No need to get snarky. Politeness is a skill. Complaining about resources on a thread discussing a trade is confusing.
fjmendez
And surprisingly the Sacramento A’s are one of those 5 teams
This one belongs to the Reds
They have to increase payroll from a number that couldn’t get any lower.
Johnny Devil
The Phillies have their fingers crossed 3 guys are healthy and can rebound. As a Phillies fan Dumbrowski is testing my faith.
Bart Harley Jarvis
I know, he is like, so dumb.
VonPurpleHayes
Caba is a great prospect. So that stings from the Phillies perspective. I’m not big on Boyd. Seems like a good trade for both teams.
stevetampa
Caba is a solid prospect who is also trending up. Luzardo’s FB was a full tick less in 2024 than in 2022-2023 when he had success. Unsurprisingly his strikeout rate also plummeted this past season. Agree, if he returns to 2022-2023 form, it will be a great deal for the Phillies. That’s a big if considering injuries to his elbow and back in 2024, the latter of which kept him out for months. No recency bias here.
CarverAndrews
I can be something of a prospect hugger, and I hate dealing from the top of the farm. Really liked Caba a lot and did not want to give him up. But the job of the GM is to make these tough choices, and of the top guns he was the guy to let go. Probably three years away, and a good system replaces these guys over time.
It really comes down to Luzardo – will he be healthy and effective. If so, a solid move for the Phils and we can expect more shuffling.to come.
Baseballisthebest
Dombrowski has an M.O. Trade all prospects that are not an immediate help to big league squad to get players that are or at least can be. This trade fits that M.O. to a T.
Caba is the best SS prospect on defense that I have seen in 30+ years, but he is in low A so can’t help the big league squad in 2025. So future HOF exec Dombrowski says bye bye.
Will Luzardo be enough to get Phillies over the hump and into the WS? Doubtful unless the defensive nightmares at 3B and in RF are traded too.
But then it’s December and there are 192 FA still on the market and trades to be made.
Dogbone
@Baseballis:
Dombrowski’s M O, also should definitely include: Spend, SPend, SPENd, and SPEND MORE.
CarverAndrews
But let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good mythology…
websoulsurfer
Dogbone, including spending prospects,
Johnny Devil
Turner is a Phillie until he’s 40 my friend, his contract says caba bye bye.
websoulsurfer
Johnny, a Phillie, not a SS.
Seahawks19081
Turner is the second baseman of the future there. I think if Stott returns to form this year, they make that switch the year after. Stott is a better player defensively than Trea is.
Seahawks19081
He’s definitely a solid prospect, but he’s blocked at the big league level, especially is Stott can return to form this season. I also wonder what they do with Walker now, will just release him and eat that money or trade him for a low level prospect?
Trotski
Seems like the definition of a slap dick prospect. (Thank you Blake Snell for that one!) 5’9” SS with a great glove and bat-to-ball skills but a long way away (19 years old) and probably no power to speak of.
stevetampa
I would say there is a limited ceiling there. Whatever the case, not a player that was going to help the big club the next two seasons.
htbnm57
If they trade Walker they’ll need to eat 90% of the salary and maybe get a Single A Lottery Pick.
Seahawks19081
At this point, I feel most Phillies fans would be ok with that, I know I would. After thinking about that, I could see Ranger being the odd man out. They would at least get something for him.
billysbballz
These are the exact types of prospects and players that is needed in baseball today. Guys that don’t strike out, that get on base and steal bases, athletic and play great defense.
DakotaJoe
Walker will still get an opportunity if he improves, but the Phillies aren’t expecting anything from him at this point.
Johnny Devil
Von purple I like this trade for several reasons., foremost it eliminates any chance walker will return to the rotation. Hopefully this kid is healthy and will knock Suarez a few notches down the rotation also.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
Jesus is rising in Philly
Yankee Clipper
And at Christmas time too! Is there anything more appropriate?!
Jason Hanselman
If it was Easter?
Yankee Clipper
Ah, I see what you did there…. AND I LIKE IT!
dasit
inquirer headline: son of god appears in citizens bank park to chorus of boos
SFBay314
IN THE DIVISION!? and that is the return?
10centBeerNight
Great move by DD. Stearns, AA – your move
braveshomer
AA standing pat…Braves will be 3rd in division is my prediction smh
getrealgone2
Your name checks out.
stevetampa
That’s excellent. Thank you for that.
Chicken In Philly?
They can return to health and be playoff contenders. Obviously pitching will be something to be concerned about, but they don’t need to make huge moves. They’ve locked up their core.
JoeBrady
Chicken In Philly?
They can return to health and be playoff contenders.
===================
Going into the off-season, I had them rated above Philly.
They finished 6 back with injuries to Albies, Riley, Acuna, Murphy, and Strider. All 5 of those guys were AS’s in 2023.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
When will Acuna and Strider return and what will they look like could be the difference between first and third place.
Murphy, Albies and Riley should all be fine.
Outfieldflyrule??
Acuña’s season after his last knee injury was a lot closer to ‘averagey’ than it was to ‘Ronald-like’. No one knows what to expect from Strider. Seems like a good year to reset under the luxury tax for the Bravos.
braveshomer
Exactly @Outfield…No one should have high expectations for those 2 especially Acuna rehabbing another Acl tear. Either you keep adding talent and keep it moving or have a mini reset. Looks to be a mini reset to me.
Baseball Babe
Except Albies get hurt every year.
Skyrider123
Braves made the playoffs with castoffs and rejects last season. A healthy Riley, Albies, Murphy and the return of Acuna and Strider will be huge. AA normally strikes early, but he has something brewing. Braves and Phillies so far have better pitching. Mets finish 3rd with that pitching staff.
getrealgone2
Exactly.
Outfieldflyrule??
Braves will need to hold off the Nats for third place. Then the improved Cubs, Reds and Giants for an October spot.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Yup. Don’t follow a plan. Let’s just react to everything the Phillies do.
getrealgone2
These clowns that think the Braves should have their roster set before xmas are hilarious. Also, like you said, reacting to whatever some other teams does. Bozos the lot of them.
braveshomer
Have you not seen how AA operates? Yes, in fact most his big moves are before Xmas as it so happens. I didn’t say they wouldn’t make the playoffs but just finish 3rd if we’re replacing Max Fried with Bryce Elder in the rotation and waiting for our 2 best players to return mid-season. Available players are flying off the board in case you haven’t noticed….Only Bozo around is you who comes on here just to call people clowns and bozos constantly smh.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Replacing Fried with Strider. Replacing Laureano with Acuna.
getrealgone2
Well, just off the top of my head the Olson trade happened in March. The Sale trade wasn’t until December 30th. Also, who the hell said they were replacing the oft injured Fried with Elder? You act as if that is set in stone. Burnes, Sasaki, Flaherty, Buehler, Gibson, Verlander, Scherzer, Quintana, and Heaney haven’t signed. That’s just starting pitchers. So no, players aren’t flying off the board. If you actually paid attention to the team. You’d have known that Strider just did an interview where he said he’s on track to start pitching in spring training games. He didn’t need a full year, but closer to 9 months to recover. So, barring any setbacks he’ll be ready close to opening day and not mid season. The bottom line is you are indeed a bozo. Who just spouts off his mouth with out any facts or knowledge. As I said above your name is appropriate.
differentbears
The Olson trade happened in March because the MLB lockout last over three months.
ChipperChop
Lockout or no lockout there is zero chance the Olson trade happens before Christmas because of AA waiting on Freddie to make up his mind. That was his point.
differentbears
It literally happened right after the lockout ended. Which means they had it all but lined up before the lockout began.
Freddie was gone in December if not for the lockout. Atlanta clearly decided to move on, and the lockout masked this for months. As soon as it ended, the Braves were finishing up the trade for their new 1B.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Finally. This Luzardo trade sweepstakes was one for the books- glad he’s finally been cashed in as a trade chip. Now lets see what he can do on a larger market club and with his injuries theoretically all healed up.
Vergil9000
Man, the NL move different. The AL is scared to do intra-division trades let alone in conference LOL
Veejh
Miami kind of doesn’t count
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Yeah Miami is more of like, a Quadruple-A club that is constantly developing quality players to go play in the big leagues via trade, once they become too valuable or too expensive to carry or hold on to with nothing else to show for it.
They’re kinda the 2010’s and 2020’s version of what the 90’s and early 00’s Oakland Athletics were.
tom brunanskys black sock
“Conference” lol
cheapseater
Billy Beane used to trade within the AL West a ton.
jdgoat
That seems like a very light return, especially for an inter-division trade. Miami has a lot riding on an 18 year old kid.
solaris602
The most important factor there is he isn’t making anything. League minimum trumps production.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I agree and I think two things happened:
1) Luzardo’s stock plummeted thanks to injury, meaning Miami waited too long to fully capitalize on him as a trade chip and
2) Miami must think that it was not worth it to hang onto him and hope for a rebound while paying his salary themselves, so this turned from a prospect haul situation into an almost purely salary dump of a trade.
Unclemike1526
And Hoyer wasn’t QUITE stupid enough to pay what they wanted for his all LH starting pitching staff he dreams of. Or Ricketts has put a muzzle on him that requires Ricketts seal of approval for trades of any more Top prospects.
nicksc10
Phillies and Mets gonna battle for the NL East Crown. Should be fun.
Anthony maresca
Mets are not going anywhere with that pitching!!! They need 2 top starters, 1B, 2B as you’re fooling yourself if Soto is the answer.
Ma4170
Mets will add at least one more sp
Baseballisthebest
Mets already added one top starter by having Senga returning. He was top 5 in baseball in 2023. Now they just need 1 more.
I don’t get people thinking Cohen would spend $750 million on Soto and then not improve the pitching staff. 2 of the top 4 FA starters are still on the board plus Manaea and Cookie are still out there.
No Hari Kari yet my Mets fan friends.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
I am a NYM fan and If I am Stearns I wouldn’t plan on Senga as throwing significant innings after a 1 year layoff and his results may just be average.
Maybe 85 IP
Stearns knows he has a lot of work to do.
Every offseason has its own dynamic.
He might be surprised how the offseason has evolved so far and has some slight regret about some players already signed. Every GM is dealing with similar concerns but Cohen $ does raise expectations
Baseballisthebest
Why? Senga was ready to go in September but Stearns decided to hold him out. Why would his results be any different? He is healthy now.
Senga will go 25-30 starts depending on whether they go with a 5 or 6 man rotation.
Mendoza has said they expect him to throw a full season.
websoulsurfer
Mendoza talked about Senga being 100% and fronting the Mets rotation during the interviews at the Winter Meetings. I will go with his thoughts on that. Thinking the Mets are counting on 160-180 IP from him.
VonPurpleHayes
Do not sleep on the Braves. I have the Mets in 3rd right now, but another move changes that.
nicksc10
Braves haven’t done anything to improve and lost several key players. I have them 3rd by a wide margin right now.
VonPurpleHayes
They improve just by getting healthy. They lost a bunch of key players to injury last year.
blindsided789
Braves will improve by having a large chunk of their starting lineup return from major injuries. Acuna, Albies, Riley, Murphy all missed significant time. Will also have Strider back. Would like to see upgrades at LF and SS though, along with a SP. Rotation as of right now is headed by Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach and Strider when he returns which is a pretty good top 4 but could use one or two more depth starters for sure.
Can you name what several key players you are referring to that they lost? Fried and Morton are the only 2 significant names I’m seeing.
nicksc10
Darnaud, Soler, Minter, Jiminez out for the season. They will also be without Acuna and Strider for the first couple months. Even when healthy last season they regressed quite a bit offensively.
blindsided789
Soler was a deadline pickup and they already have a DH so I don’t consider that a significant loss considering he is a negative on defense. D’arnaud stings a little but they obviously considered him too expensive and aging for a backup catcher. Minter is technically not lost yet but he did have surgery and missed time last year so health is a question for him as well as where he ends up signing. Jimenez hurts also but relievers are pretty volatile in general so it seems they’re stocking up on as many high upside arms as possible to find lightning in a bottle. Also plenty of time to still make moves.
I believe you’re exaggerating the amount of time Acuna and Strider will be missing as well to start the season. There are no specifics but all we’ve heard is the start of the season depending on how their recovery continues to go, certainly not set in stone they will miss “the first couple months”.
Offense was down from the record 2023 year but I think that is partly why they moved on from their hitting coach.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
As a NYM I never underestimate ATL.
They are well managed.
Always dangerous
Skyrider123
Braves and Phillies are far surperior on pitching alone. The east will be a 3 team race again.
whyhayzee
Hey Zeus, welcome to the top of the mountain.
Heels On The Field
WHY?
Who thinks the Phillies need pitching? Who are these people?
Unless Luzardo hits in the playoffs like Ohtani hits in the regular season this is stupid. He dealt their SS prospect. Not for a Center Fielder, but another pitcher.
Is the goal to win the World Series or win the most regular season games?
tom brunanskys black sock
Every team needs pitching. Always.
Heels On The Field
How come no pitcher can get paid half of $789 million?
When one does there will be a hitter getting paid $900 million.
FIGURE…IT…OUT.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
Because the pitching motion is unnatural and in order to compete in modern MLB your average velocity has to be close to 95MPH and that can do a lot of damage to shoulders, elbows, tendons over a lot of innings
You have to plan to have extra depth of pitchers and spread the money out to hedge your risk
VonPurpleHayes
The Phillies had the worst performance out of the 5th starting spot last year. The worst in the league.
This changes that. It was absolutely a need.
Heels On The Field
The Phillies had the best pitching in MLB in 2011, the best five man starting staff. They won the most games in their history (102) and were out in the first round.
Final score of Game 5:
Cardinals One, Phillies Zero. Doc Halladay on the mound for the Phillies.
Phillies couldn’t score runs in the regular season – as expected – just like 2010.
Don’t fix the lineup,, add more pitching. Add even more pitching, and more pitching. Still no World Series dance.
You need THREE starters in the playoffs. THREE.
If you can’t hit you can’t win.
VonPurpleHayes
They had the 8th best offense last year and still lost in the 2nd round (which was their 1st series). They just chase too much. They need more guys who walk.
Improving pitching doesn’t have anything to do with the offense. Signing Kepler hopefully helps there, but it’s not super exciting.
chuckhoffner
You may only need three SP in the playoffs, with an occasional start from a 4th SP, but having a semi-competent 5th SP during the season, in theory, leads to less IP on the bullpen, keeping them slightly fresher for the playoffs. Also could play a role in being a division winner vs a WC, and seeding.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
In a short series what you are saying is you need to get your hits with RISP, your overall batting average can be ordinary.
Barry Bonds got criticized for years about his results in the playoffs but towards the end of his career he got better.
I’m not a sports psychologist but I believe the elite offseason players in every sport can manage their emotions, breathing and focus to execute in critical situations in a game You often hear the term players can “slow the game down”
Players like Michael Jordan, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Cool Montana and Stephen Curry were able to do that on a consistent basis
WadeBoggsWildRide
Heels isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer.
CarverAndrews
Nor the sharpest spoon either.
darylict
Taijuan just became a very expensive swingman….and I’m ok with that!
wmurphy24
If Taijuan doesn’t do well to start the year, I am hopeful we don’t waste the roster spot any longer.
VonPurpleHayes
This kicks him out of the rotation.
htbnm57
They’ll try and trade him by eating 90%+ of his salary for a lottery pick from Single A . If no one bites they’ll release him unless he has a spectacular Spring and then he’d be long reliever
stevetampa
Taijuan is now your swing guy. Which means he is the long guy on OD.
stymeedone
No, it means Walker is the injury replacement for Luzardo in the opening day rotation.
stevetampa
Injury replacement? What does that even mean? TWalker is either on the OD roster or he isn’t
Baseballisthebest
It means you should expect Luzardo to ne injured sooner rather than later.
Johnny Devil
Wrong
Baseballisthebest
Jd,
Who? About what?
kodion
Luzardo might slot in there initially, to some extent because of the money, maybe. Sure could do worse depth-wise
some guy
Maybe Walker is a salary dump somewhere together below the tax bracket
Ranger Danger19
They are going to send Billy the Marlin out in the next deal.
Swingandamiss
The medicals were no bueno per Cubs. Probably lowered the asking price some. Still got a good prospect. The worst kind of pitching is unavailable pitching. Dangerous way to enter the season
WadeBoggsWildRide
Be interesting to see what those medical issues are if/when they get leaked.
solaris602
Cubs should thank PHI for preventing them from making a huge mistake. Luzardo’s baggage contains a LOT of IFs, and the last thing CHC needs is another Drew Smyly.
fearthecub
Or Wade Miley.
wvsteve
DD is a fans dream as POBO
kodion
Is he going to start full-time?
Rest of the rotation is better if they are all good to go. Makes him a starter-depth/reliever …and raises the Phillies’ floor either way
Salzilla
Um, Jesus Luzardo would be #3 on that team.
Camikey
Maybe even #2… Luzardo was really, really good in 2023.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Camikey
Nola has averaged 194 innings over past four years.
Luzardo has averaged 110 innings over past four years.
Luzardo enters as the number five, merely an easy upgrade on Walker.
kodion
Not in my books. He COULD get there quickly, by the end of ST if things go his way, but he has to beat out Suárez AND Sánchez just to get into that conversation. And that might be shortchanging Taillon, too
kodion
Brain cramp: Walker. No idea how that wire got crossed
Salzilla
Tallion plays elsewhere. You mean Taijuan of the over 7 era? Because he gets the boot here.
Neither Ranger or Cristopher have the pedigree of Luzardo. 2023 showed what he could be without injuries and mechanical issues. He’s a borderline ace. This is a fantastic move for Philadelphia.
VonPurpleHayes
They’re kind of tied together due to signing in free agency at the same time. Both overpaid. Both duds.
CarverAndrews
If Ranger is healthy, then Luzardo is a #5 in that rotation.
Ma4170
A 5 with the potential to be their 3 if actually healthy
VonPurpleHayes
Sanchez is criminally underrated. He’s the true #2. Nola is a great #3. Jesus isa #4 at best, but #5 if Ranger is right. This is a fantastic rotation.
Ma4170
I like Ranger, but I dont see where he’s better than 2022-23 Luzardo, or hasnt shown it for more than stretches of a couple of months.
Sanchez is interesting bc he relies on soft contact and doesn’t miss a lot of bats. Hope he can sustain it.
websoulsurfer
In 2021 Luzardo made 18 starts. In 2022, Luzardo made 18 starts. In 2024 Luzardo made 12 starts. He had an ERA as a starter of 5 or above in 2 of those seasons. Total- a 4.47 ERA in those 4 seasons as a starter.
What the Phillies are banking on is Luzardo being the 2023 version, not the version in those other 3 seasons out of the last 4. Not the greatest of odds, but may the odds be ever in your favor.
Even if he is the starter from the other 3 seasons, he is a good #5 starter and as bad as Walker was, they need that.
VonPurpleHayes
He’s their 5th starter. Walker becomes an emergency backup.
rememberthecoop
That’s one heck of a 5th starter Von, if you consider his upside. I was hoping my Cubs would get him but apparently Hoyer couldn’t seal the deal. Now he’ll go back to his long winter nap.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Coop
Steele is lefty
Shota is lefty
Boyd is lefty
Taillon is righty
Assad is righty
Horton by end of season
Liked the Tucker and Belli deals
Would not have given up Caissie, Horton or Ballesteros for Luzardo. Even Triantos can replace Shaw if Shaw gets injured.
That leaves only Kevin Alcantara to trade and he can replace PCS in event of injury.
Glad Cubs passed on Luzardo even though this deal looks good for Phillies. Phillies gave up two guys with 60-70 speed and they still have Crawford.
Cubs need to spend the Belli savings to get two backend relievers.
websoulsurfer
Seemed to me that the Cubs biggest need was in the pen. But then who am I.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
I realize most PHI fans don’t care about Taijuans psyche going into 2025 spring training but he probably needs to be quiet and suck it up short term BUT behind the scenes he will be trying to get his agent to increase the probability of a trade to another team before the end of Spring Training. If his emotions/pride comes out publicly it could be a distraction to the team. Most players probably won’t be affected even if some have empathy for his situation. If he is healthy and pitches better, some team will take him at near full price
Unclemike1526
I don’t think PHI fans care about ANYBODIES Psyche. Having booed Mike Schmidt for years and even Santa Claus, How does Walker rate a break? C’mon
cpdpoet
Goodsir, please do 5mins of research about the whole booing santa thing. And you’ll never bring it up again.
Best wishes….
-society
Bart Harley Jarvis
@cpdpoet,
Target acquired and destroyed. Nicely done, sir.
Unclemike1526
My bad. Was it the Easter Bunny?
Bart Harley Jarvis
I believe it was Punxsutawney Phil, and we merely showed him ill will.
MoneyBallJustWorks
another Jays rumored target gone. can someone check on Atkins and make sure he is still breathing.
BigRedMachine
Atkins is vacationing with Jerry Dipoto.
MoneyBallJustWorks
well that must be fun. one who only wants to trade, and the other who is afraid to make any move not for a minor leaguer or from the Cleveland org.
guess they can talk about their time with the Indians org.
stevetampa
Phillies also receiving a minor league catcher apparently
johncoltrane
Marlins piling up prospects
chemfinancing
*rolls eyes*
Salzilla
Very good by the Phillies, but surprised to see this type of trade in division.
ruthlesslyabsurd
The Marlins are getting some great names back. And I literally mean great names, not necessarily talents
cpdpoet
Thank you for my 1st belly laugh of the day…
BEISBALL
Wow,, they trade Jesus at Christmas, there must be nothing worse than that, the marlins are a Judas organisation..
WadeBoggsWildRide
Hahaha! If his mother’s name is Mary the Marlins are going to be in serious trouble!
dankyank
While acknowledging that a healthy Luzardo is a clear improvement over Walker, this was a clear buy low move given the former’s lengthy injury history and poor performance in 2024.
Dombrowski has been working quietly in the background, gradually rebuilding the farm system so I’m guessing they consider this route preferable to crossing another luxury tax threshold and risking further penalties. Otherwise, there were far more durable arms on the free agent market.
bumpy93
as a Phil’s fan I love this move! Caba is that “lottery ticket” for the Marlins. I know a lot of people in the organization and fans didn’t want to lose caba but you gotta make this deal if you’re the Phillies and even the Marlins.
I think this move will set up a ranger Suarez trade in the near future IMO. Ranger just hired Boras as his agent and iirc he is also a free agent after this year (maybe after 2026). The Phil’s weren’t going to resign him long-term IMO to a massive deal. so ranger and casty might be a package the Phil’s will try to throw at people for something. Plus this might allow the Phil’s to flat out release Tajuan walker
CarverAndrews
Ranger is a FA after this season, and yes, he is the guy that is going to be on the block at the deadline if Painter does what everyone thinks that he should do.
We can be certain that DD explored extension ideas with Ranger’s agent before but they were far off. Now that he has Boras, they know that they are not going to get the discount and given the back history they don’t want to extend him at peak value. I love Ranger out there but they can only afford so many FA type deals in that rotation.
The only way that Ranger comes back is if he is still fighting his health and needs a pillow deal after this season.
WadeBoggsWildRide
Keep Taijuan for depth since you’re paying him anyway. With no Taijuan and no Ranger who starts in Ranger’s spot?
wmurphy24
I rather we would spend money than prospects, but this move has potential to make the team better. It will be interesting to see if another move involving a starter for an outfielder is next. Wish it could have been for Kyle Tucker.
cheapseater
It’s an overpay for the Phillies but not a terrible one. Just hope they check the physicals before announcing this. Caba’s *floor* seems to be the second coming of Freddy Galvis.
Fernando P
Counting on Luzardo as a #2 seems very optimistic. It’s based on ONE season where he has a better WAR than Nola. That one season is the only Luzardo season that beats any of the last 8 seasons from Nola.
VonPurpleHayes
They’re using him as a #5, not a #2.
Strunk Flugget
Glad the Cubs didn’t do something stupid like trade Nico or Suzuki for this guy.
Goose
I know Caba is being touted as the next big thing but he is 19 and who knows. A lot of teams were tied to Luzardo. If the Phillies got him for that price what were the other teams offering?
AToweringFlyBall
Christopher Sanchez is the #2 starter on this team and the most underrated starters in baseball. His changeup is one of the best in the league. The writers on this site continually don’t know jack about the Phillies.
Hopefully, the Phillies just cut Walker to alleviate the headache.
Bnickles127
Dombrowski just made his ask of Gilbert or Kirby for bohm look that much more outrageous. Nice get by Phillies tho
ctbronx7
Good!! Now, find a place to dump Taijuan Walker.
Another good lefty will keep Soto in line.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
I agree with your second point being a critical point of the trade.
Your first comment I don’t agree it is necessary at all OR if they do there’s no rush. Take your time and make your best deal.
whyhayzee
I love how everyone here has already figured what’s going to happen before it even happens.
rememberthecoop
Wait, you’re not clairvoyant?
whyhayzee
No I’m not and don’t call me Clare!
Flanster
As the saying goes, “you can never have too much pitching”
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
The rich teams keep getting richer, plucking and scavenging the talent from low budget clubs.
dazedatnoon
Seems like a steal for the Phillies.
Hopefully Getz holds onto Robert if injury concerns squash trade value for him like it did here.
Poolhalljunkies
Funny how this starts with jj bleday
JoeBrady
A lot of unknowns.
Caba seems like a legit talent, but virtually every player needs to go deep occasionally. He’s only 19, so he has time, but needs to develop 10-12 HR power.
Luzardo is very off/on. A career 4.29 ERA, with a road ERA of 4.75, but with decent+ results in Philly.
I think Miami will like this long-term, and had to trade Luzardo no matter what. Philly needed a #5, but I am not sure they needed one this good. A lot will depend on health.
websoulsurfer
Joe, I think you hit on a couple of important points. Caba is a legit prospect. He is expected to hit for average 55 FV and he is a great defensive SS with a 70-80 FV depending on if you are looking at MLB Pipeline or BA. Especially for one so young. He played all of last season at 18 years old, only turning 19 on December 6th.
He does need to develop some power, at least double digits to stick as a starter and not a glove only SS in the majors. What he does well at the plate is high contact rates and take a walk. He has more walks than strike outs as a pro. He reminds me a lot of Orlando Arcia’s overall game at that age with better defense. Caba is so polished at SS for an 18-year-old.
3 of Luzardo’s last 4 seasons have been injury filled. Only in 2023 did he start more than 18 games and in 2024 he had both elbow issues that put him on the IL, especially scary for a guy that has already had one TJ surgery, and stress fractures plural in his back. “Stress Reactions” means stress fractures that don’t reach the surface of the bone.
If healthy, Luzardo is one of the better LHP in the league. Can the Phillies count on him being healthy? If he has an injury again in 2025, he will still be a solid #5 for however many starts he is able to make. The latter is what my bet would be for him. He is a better version of Walker until Painter, Abel, or Johnson is able to step into that position in the rotation.
I agree that Miami is going to like this trade down the road. The best defensive SS prospect in a generation and the fastest player in pro ball for Luzardo. Miami’s A ball teams are going to be exciting next season with Head and Boyd also playing there. Two 80 speed guys on the basepaths.
WadeBoggsWildRide
Your comment was a better read than the article.
websoulsurfer
Thanks. That is scary, but thanks.
WadeBoggsWildRide
Not a bad article either!
CarverAndrews
All of this “dump Walker, or cut him” nonsense is foolish. He is a sunk cost, so unless you are able to clear a notable portion of his salary via trade then just bring him to camp and hope that the rehab program helped. They are not planning to plug him into the rotation, but can use him as a swingman if he is effective at all. The guy was actually a solid pitcher before and could still be an effective #5 for someone if healthy.
It is a bad contract – so what, it happens, Unless he is a clubhouse cancer you try to get at least some return given the two years left.
dmbphils27
A tough part of this is he’s actually a good dude and accepts responsibility. Far from a clubhouse cancer
mlb fan
The HOF bound “Dom” does it again.
just_thinkin
Pretty weak return
darkhorses2010
Whenever I read “The Marlins” are rebuilding I remember long ago Bob Dylan was building a house in California, and as it went up he had it torn down and built again with a new design, and then did it again and again.
So, ok, the Marlins are rebuilding.
rememberthecoop
That’s an interesting story & an appropriate analogy.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
So you’re saying MIA should ask Bob Dylan for a loan
Its extra expensive to build a house from scratch 3 times
That’s the Point of the story Isn’t It Or maybe I missed it? 😉 Sorry
If you’re not a billionaire be happy with the second design.
MIA management could have given Kim Ng a decent raise and allowed her to continue in the same role and maybe she would have stayed around.
Derek Jeter got frustrated and bailed out some years prior
mad1
A Number 5 starter
Philly 6
That’s Hall of Famer Dave Dombrowski…
Old York
Why?
Doron
Luzardo has #2-#1 Potential, if only he could stay healthy.
He is a gamble, and I wish him well, unless he is pitching against the Yankees.
Camden453
Phillies gave Caba a 3m signing bonus. He’s the #72 overall prospect on fangraphs. He’s a 50 FV prospect and Phillies #3 prospect
To give that up for Luzardo is not the best use of prospect capital. It’s too high injury risk plus there’s mechanics and consistency issues. He’s 27 now. Is he going to lose a little velo and stuff?
Not a good trade for the Phillies
It’s not that you’re losing Caba it’s that you could have used that prospect piece in a deadline deal or for something more dependable
They’re falling into the “have to have five aces” trap. They didn’t need another high end guy, just someone dependable and consistent
dankyank
With all due respect, Caba is an 18yo who struggled in A ball. His potential notwithstanding, he’s still got a ways to go.
Signing a free agent would have meant crossing another luxury tax threshold, with heightened penalties in regards to the draft and international signings. Viewed in that light, trading Caba is a lesser hit to the farm system.
Personally, I don’t think Luzardo is a very good bet to stay healthy. However, it’s an attempt to balance dual objectives of incrementally rebuilding the minors and improving the 2025 team.
Baseballisthebest
Dank, 18 year old players are usually not in A ball. There were only 2 others across baseball.
Caba struggled with the bat. He has a 70-80 FV with the glove. His range is off the charts. His footwork is MLB ready. He is the best defensive shortstop prospect I have seen in at least 2 decades. The last one I saw even close was Andrelton Simmons and he graded a 65 FV. Now Caba just needs to learn to hit higher level pitching and everyone I have read believes he will.
VonPurpleHayes
I disagree. Phillies have a Turner/Stott blocking Caba. Caba is super young and has no power to speak of yet. You’re crossing your fingers that that develops. Phils traded him for a high-upside starter with 2 years of control. I like it for Philly. I like the gamble for the Marlins.
Dumpster Divin Theo
You can say that again
VonPurpleHayes
I disagree. Phillies have a Turner/Stott blocking Caba. Caba is super young and has no power to speak of yet. You’re crossing your fingers that that develops. Phils traded him for a high-upside starter with 2 years of control. I like it for Philly. I like it for the Fish.
Dumpster Divin Theo
Spoken like a Camden fan. Enjoy another first round exit, least the Phils are trying, knowing they have a full and cranky house to please. Even if it doesn’t quite work out, at least they’re trying. Meanwhile the Os supporters twist themselves into a pretzel, this guy’s useful but he’s worth a #67 prospect, not a #53 prospect. Geez, live a little.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
If you as a GM believe in the philosophy Good Pitching CAN beat (But Not Always) a Good Hitting team like LAD
Plus IF a significant injury occurs (Wheeler and Nola have a lot of mileage on their arms – You never know? Some insurance) you are better off having extra depth so you don’t get ripped off in a trade in midseason
PCA Ballin’
Starlyn and Emaarion are definitely MLB ready bats…. Good thing cubs didnt pull the trigger with Caissie or Triantos
Camden453
Plus you’re trading a key prospect piece for an intradivision guy. Everyone has seen him tons. The Mets, the Braves. He’s much easier to hit the more you face him
A lot of the reason the Mets beat the Phillies in the NLDS is they’ve seen Wheeler, Nola and the rest of the Phillies pitchers so much over the years
Meanwhile the Mets had all new guys. Severino, Manaea, Quintana.
Everyone in the division has seen Luzardo. You’re better off using Caba on something else
Ragnarok
The Mets really blasted wheeler in those 7 shutout innings in the postseason!
The Phillies bullpen was terrible in that series and the biggest difference.
Camden453
Yeah and the Mets have seen that bullpen so much over the years. And Nola and Suarez
VonPurpleHayes
So you’re suggesting the Phils cut ties with Wheeler because everyone in the division has seen him? The Mets shouldn’t have signed Soto because he spent years on the Nats.
This is officially the worst take.
Ragnarok
Horrendously bad.
Estevez, Strahm, and Hoffman are REAL longtime Phillies too lol.
The_Porcupine
Solid get by the phils. Might have rather used that type of prospect for someone with less questions about health, but luzardo is a solid get if healthy. Worth the risk as the phils dont need to rely on him as a top of the rotation guy.
Big whiffa
Could not have got much more for that prospect haul. Great trade by phils !
Domingo111
I think it is good that they are going into a full rebuild.
It seems the Plan is to get hit tool first hitters although many of them have limited power. Kim NG already started that process and the new regime continues that approach.
That is a contrast to earlier years when they went with toolsy guys who can’t hit.
We will see if that works but maybe they can pull off being like the guardians.
chemfinancing
The poor Marlins seem like the runt of the pack when considering MLB front offices and organizational integrity. And that’s including Athletics and White Sox
HalosHeavenJJ
Didn’t see this coming. Initially I thought Miami sold low but the return is sensible.
Not as good as had Luzardo been good for a couple months. Bit better then if he gets hurt again
Big whiffa
The walk rate is promising. Not a fan of contact over power especially when the batting ave is south of 250. He has a low probability of mlb success imo
TheGreatGagsby
Never heard anyone refer to McIntosh as “glove first” before.
formerlyz
Ya that’s weird, he can hit, but if he could defend behind the plate(which he improved on the last 2 years), he’d have been in the big leagues this last year already
chemfinancing
How many middle infielders do the Marlins need?
Baseballisthebest
As many as they can get. SS are usually the best athletes on the field and can be easily moved to other positions. Almost impossible to move other positions to SS.
chemfinancing
I’m sorry I just can’t take them seriously
websoulsurfer
Caba just turned 19 a few days ago and is 2-3 years away from making it to Miami, so stockpile as many of that type of prospect as you can. If you have 3 like him, you are almost guaranteed to hit on one of them.
O'sSayCanYouSee
The return for Marlins seems light. In a market that is starved for pitching, I would have thought they would have gotten more. Shrug.
Rexhudler86
@o’s. That’s what the orioles gave up for Trevor richards. Maybe it was even more because norby was rated high.
O'sSayCanYouSee
I feel like Luzardo is a better pitcher than Rogers, and the Orioles gave up more to get the lesser arm. Time will tell.
Ragnarok
Caba is a better prospect than norby. Norby can not play defense and has huge K issues.
If he can avoid the swing and miss getting too bad—Norby could be a 2nd division regular. Caba has a high floor with his glove and speed. Farther off obviously.
I think most around the game had knocked Norby’s grade down after seeing his K issues spike in AAA.
Ragnarok
FanGraphs really was down on Norby right before the trade. They had knocked him down to 17th in the O’s system.
“Graduation TLDR: Norby is a below-average 2B defender without the contact/power combination typical of a LF, his other position. He’s K’d at a scary rate in 2024 and looks like a lower-end role player”
O'sSayCanYouSee
Ragnarok — I guess I’m seeing it like, 4 months ago, the Fish wanted MLB ready talent for fringe MLB pitcher.
Now, a TOR (* if healthy), and they are looking for far off talent, below Single A.
Seems like different perspectives from the same group. Not so much the “quality” (which is always one half tea-leaf reading) rather the “proximity” of the players.
NattyLites
You’re an orioles fan why are you shrugging?
AC Surf Baseball
Caba is a good prospect, recognizes pitches and doesn’t chase out of the zone. Impressive for a 19 year old and projects to stick at SS. Boyd is one of the fastest players in professional baseball, majors or minors. The Marlins are several years away so I’m not surprised they went with teenage prospects they can develop.
Rexhudler86
@ac both are single a. Not really blowing the league apart with numbers. Caba has a good k/bb ratio and a 19 yr old. Both have speed but the batting average should be higher it’s going to plummet when they jump to double a.
Baseballisthebest
Caba only played a few games in A ball. Wait until you get to watch him play.
Big whiffa
I don’t understand why the marlins traded him for that return ? Why not see if he bounces back first 1/2 of season and trade him closer to deadline ?
Seems like more of a salary dump by a poorly ran franchise
JoeBrady
If he is hurt, then the return is -0-.
chemfinancing
Not sure it’s a light return I just probably won’t have been going for that if I was MIA
Cambo
Well, hello Dave Dombrowski of old. Love this addition to the rotation and the Phillies pitching lab has a way with left handers and helping them find their full potential. It allows the Phillies to avoid a Ranger bidding war in FA as well. Not sure if Topper will fight for Taijuan to get some starts but at least this lessens those potential starts. I still say send him to the A’s for free.
AC Surf Baseball
The Phillies FO, scouts and pitching coaches have done wonders with our left handed pitchers. Just look at how they developed Ranger Suarez & Christopher Sanchez. This is a great move for a Phillies club that has been mostly quiet this winter. Luzardo should occupy the 5th starters slot come opening day, but wouldn’t be surprised to see them stretch him out in the spring to add length to the bullpen until he proves he’s healthy and effective enough to pitch every 5th day. As far as the return for the Marlins, they are getting an excellent SS prospect, disciplined beyond his years at the plate. If he develops pop, watch out because he will probably stick at SS. Boyd was a major disappointment at the plate last year down at Lakewood, but he was ranked as the fastest player in the Phillies farm system. He has wheels, hopefully they can unlock something in his hit tool.
Big whiffa
Dude hit below 200 in A ball and has no power. You can have 3 tools but if the 2 you are missing is hitting and power he has no chance in bigs
Baseballisthebest
He was in A ball for 26 games at 18 years old. There were only 2 other 18 year old players in A ball last year.
Big whiffa
Ok, he hit less than 225 on the season and is a bat over power hitter. Why sell so low ?
The Saber-toothed Superfife
A total Dom move.
International signings always appear at the top of the prospect list when first drafted, then they drop like flies……
Luzardo will probably shape right up.
Dumpster Divin Theo
No Cub no Os. Sleepwalkin
BITA
Solid trade all around. Caba is a good prospect but probably the best prospect Philly could afford to lose. Their other top guys all have future roles with the club planned out. Luzardo has upside and the Phillies still have Walker for depth. I like the deal for both teams.
Ragnarok
They’re definitely looking for a way to dump off what they can of Walker’s money.
HawaiiPhil2020
Maybe walker /bohm/ mick Abel /griff Mcgarry for Nolan arenado. Solves 3b for both & salary swap & cardinals get 2 pitchers Phil’s can’t seem to move forward. Cards will sign bohm & he will love stl
CarverAndrews
How does this really help the Phillies?
They swap Bohm for Arenado…Bohm is cheaper by a lot, and here for two years which fits the Aidan Miller timeline. Arenado WAS great, but is arguably on the hard downslope and we would be on the hook for three years. Plus we give you Abel (who the Phils still value highly), and McGarry who is a high upside lottery ticket.
And we are still on the hook for more money overall even with unloading Taj.
If Arenado finds the fountain of youth then sure – let’s do it. But it is hard to find many examples of an aging hitter with two straight seasons of that kind of sudden dropoff that find a few more years of quality hitting again.
In essence – Phils on the hook for more money overall and at best swap out 3B performance while giving away a top prospect and a lottery ticket for the privilege. In addition to the fact that Taj can still be a useful arm in a rotation or a long man if healthy.
BITA
Not that I think the trade proposal makes sense but if you want an example of a guy bouncing back at age 34 after 2 sub par seasons that would be Arenados former teammate Goldschmidt who won the MVP at age 34.
CarverAndrews
I am sure that there are a few examples, but that does not fit at all. Goldy merely went from two very good seasons (with MVP votes in each one) to an elite MVP season.
Arenado has two straight league average hitting seasons, with all of the metrics way down and a deep drop from before. I love the guy and would not count him out from something of a bounceback and he can still field at an above average level but it is rare that the bat comes back that far, in that age grouping, when the bat speed is that far down.
BITA
Goldschmidt raised hid OPS 100 points for his age 34 season, the same season Arenado is heading into. Let’s not pretend Arenado is washed up that narrative is tired and old.
CarverAndrews
Who is pretending??
Take a good look for yourself at the trends. Goldy went from an elite .880 OPS range to a one season .980 awesomely elite range. Big drop the next season, and the season after that he was league average as a hitter.
Now look at Arenado and his general range of performance and age, and then watch what is going on at the plate (bat speed and pitch recognition). Again, I love the guy and he is one hell of a competitor and it would not surprise me if he bounced back and had a couple of “solid” years left at the plate – but not at all what he was before. His power and contact and pitch recognition are way down and it takes a lot of work to extend that out once you have to adjust to the aging curve.
BITA
Pitch recognition is his problem you are right about that. But thats not a problem related to age at all. That can be fixed with good coaching.
If he raises his OPS 100 points like Goldschmidt did he will be an all star and worth more than his salary.
CarverAndrews
Learn about how the reflexes dip in that early to mid-thirties range (and then another in the 40’s, and so on). All of a sudden one cannot adjust the same way as before, so you tend to cheat a bit. You need to guess fastball more often, as you can no longer catch up to it the same way. You narrow the zone more, and guess more often and sometimes you cheat with the early weight shift. And then you basically become a bad pitch hitter, instead of a stud. Happens to all of them at some point. There are adjustments but it isn’t easy.
You are basically assuming magical thinking will occur.
BITA
Did Goldschmidts reflexes dip at that age or did he win the MVP?
CarverAndrews
OK you are like attempting to communicate with most of the commenters on here. Message board heroes that probably never stepped on a ballfield beyond LL level.
Take care.
BITA
What i said is true. The same age where you say he’s washed up is the same age Goldschmidt won an MVP.
The reality is nobody knows. We can’t predict the future.
CarverAndrews
Ahem – you are the one that was declaring that Arenado would become a different hitter despite his last two seasons of much lower production and the eye test – hence you were the one predicting the future against form.
And each individual is somewhat different…there is a range of ages when the downturn happens. What they know is that it happens suddenly. Goldy appears to have had it a few years later; Arenado in his early to mid-30s.
My point has been that I am not guying the guy based upon optimism against the norms…I would pay for Arenado based upon the past couple of seasons.
VonPurpleHayes
Why would the Phillies want Arenado who provides less than what you get out of Bohm at the moment?
VonPurpleHayes
Right, but what Goldy did is incredibly rare, and also not sustainable. So he doesn’t really help your case.
BITA
I said he MIGHT be. I didn’t say definitively one way or another you are the one doing that. That’s a fact.
You would pay Arenado based on the past couple seasons? Not 3 seasons just those 2 huh?
Sure
BITA
I think there is a decent chance Arenado has a better 2025 season than Bohm does. I wouldn’t bet on it but decent chance.
The point really is why would the Phillies make a move that might not make them better swapping one guy for the other. And of course they have different sized contracts too.
JoeBrady
The reality is nobody knows. We can’t predict the future.
==========================
Sure you can. I predicted it would get colder in NY in December and it did. Most stuff we do in life involves some predicting. We know players get worse as they age. We just don’t know how much.
HawaiiPhil2020
@carver,
I understand your concerns but I do NOT think the phils value or expect much from abel or mcgarry anymore. Bohm & walker $ is about the same as arenado.
I think the phils are tired of alec bohm and his antics & I know they are tired of walker. Perhaps BOTH pitchers need not be included to get the cards to bite especially since arenado has 6 teams he will accept a trade to and some of those are good with current 3b
websoulsurfer
Arenado’s performance at the plate has dropped less than Goldy’s.
2022 – Goldy 177 OPS+ Arenado 151 OPS+
2024 – Goldy 98 OPS+ Arenado 101 OPS+
Arenado’s SO% is the same as his career average. Goldy’s has gone up 5% since 2022.
BITA
But I just proved with the Goldschmidt example you don’t automatically get worse as you age.
VonPurpleHayes
You pay players based on what you think they can do going forward, not what they did in the past. This is especially true of players on the wrong side of 30. Arenado has no bat anymore. Bohm is a better option. The Phillies would not trade Bohm for a worse player.
VonPurpleHayes
The Phillies are not tired of Bohm and his antics. That’s nonsense made up by the shock jocks in Philly. The Phillies had a desire to change their lineup. Bohm is one of the few tradeable assets. So this false narrative that was already debunked by DD and Thomson started spreading about Bohm.
BITA
The only year that Bohm was better than Arenado was 2024. So for you to say definitely that Bohm is better is silly and stupid. Better deal? Of course but not better.
VonPurpleHayes
That’s what I mean. Of course I’m talking about financial flexibility and roster. For the Phillies specifically, Bohm is a much better option than Arenado. And the idea that the Phillies would just make that random swap is ridiculous. Arenado is an upgrade over Bohm defensively and a downgrade offensively. Over the last 2 seasons Arenado has steadily declined and Bohm has steadily improved. The Phillies would much rather have Bohm than Arenado right now. Bohm is cheaper.
Arenado is the better player overall. I wouldn’t bet on Arenado being better in 2025, but I would bet on Bohm being a better value in 2025.
BITA
Yeah I don’t think it makes any sense for the Phillies to even consider Arenado. Even if Arenado is better he’s still way more expensive.
CarverAndrews
@hawaii – It doesn’t really matter, as there is no reason for the Phils to do this deal unless it unlocks a ton of payroll room that they would prefer to use elsewhere. The Bohm vs. Arenado portion of the discussion has been hashed to death already.
So there would be no reason for the Phils to include other parts as it is. And you completely devalue Abel and McGarry as throw-ins. Now McGarry is certainly a lottery ticket at this point, but he still has a good arm if they can figure out how to have him acquire some command. Abel is different – he is still valued highly despite some rough spots in his development. They like him a lot and he is hardly a throw-in to any deal. Pitcher development is almost never a straight line, and even top prospects are more likely to be unable to clear the final hurdle – but that does not mean that they just throw them away for little to no reason.
The Phillies narrative on how they value Abel especially is a construct of your own mind, not theirs.
raef715
still wonder if they might deal Ranger though.
VonPurpleHayes
I think at the deadline for a bat if all goes well.
stretch123
Opens up another rotation spot to see what the young guys have and adding a solid SS prospect w/ All star potential. I’m ok with this & love the prospect depth now.
Just hope they build around Eury & Sandy long term
formerlyz
I liked the potential direction before this return. It’s too light, if Luzardo had 1 year left…
Before this, I’d have said there are only a handful, if that, of bats I’d be interested in potentially signing, and they should sign 1 SP that could give them innings/potentially even be flipped, and 3 bullpen arms (same reason/also to help close games b/c blowing leads every night is still somewhat detrimental to your young starters)…
Everything else would be trades, and I said these guys should have been traded in November 2023, but now, unless you were getting a certain level of return, letting him pitch healthy, and trading him in May would have been the play…b/c this return is far too volatile, and you’re sending him to the Phillies; that last part would be ok, if you’re getting value, but this was a Marlins type of trade, as you know what that means, and that can’t be a thing anymore
2NA
I thought they wanted a major league ready bat?? Come on!!
YaGottaBelieveAgain
DD has to take advantage in opportunities as they come available.
He can’t control the order they do
VonPurpleHayes
This also gives the Phillies an opportunity to trade SP at the deadline for a big bat if they need one. Ranger Suarez may end up being dealt at the deadline since their rotation is pretty deep now.
adshadbolt
Bring back Hoffman or bring in Scott, trade for lane Thomas, add one more arm in the pen and call it an offseason.
Catellanos gets pushed into a part time role, LHP masher. Thomas in CF, Kepler in RF and Marsh in LF. Rojas can mix in or be in milb where he belongs. Keep Bohm he’s cheap and no one wants him, spend the money in the pen.
VonPurpleHayes
None of that is happening. They won’t exceed that last tax tier, and they are close. They just course to fringe improvements.
onthebucks
Ad, 1) Bring back Hoffman and bring in Scott – Yes.
2) Trade for Lane Thomas – No.
3) Trade for center fielder Jake McCarthy – Yes.
4) Castellanos part time – Never.
5) Outfield of Kepler, McCarthy and Castellanos – Possibly.
6) If Phils do make any more outfield additions, they’ll have to figure out what to do with Marsh, Rojas, Wilson and Clemens. McCarthy full time in centerfield is a better choice than Marsh/Rojas. Kepler may need a platoon partner.
7) You keep Bohm, not because he’s cheap, but because he’s a younger all-star third baseman ($8 million) who had significantly better stats in 2024 than Arenado ($35 million) or Bregman ($30.5 million).
Ghost of Orel Hersheiser
Unless Jesus is 100% healthy, Phils paid a steep price.
Ben K
The NL East arms race continues.
I think Sean Manea comes back to the Mets.
But does Stearns feel any pressure to get in on the Burnes bidding now?
YaGottaBelieveAgain
I think this trade will work out well for PHI
A SP who Ks many batters improves your defense when the ball isn’t put in play. A healthy Luzardo takes some pressure off the rest of the staff
DD will definitely look to make strategic substitutions up till Spring Training and then assess the team and again at AS Break/Trade deadline PHI should still be favorites for a Championship run and knock off LAD
The players given up are very young (around age 22) and will take maybe 3 years before they can reach the majors. Despite their potential it is very hard to make a judgement on their future success
I’m sure Stearns has had numerous discussions about Burnes
Burnes is asking for ambitious total money and years probably 7-8 years Except for being LH I think his next 5 years will be better than Fried but it will be close. Hopefully neither pitcher has to miss time due to TJ surgery or similar
Even though NYM starters and bullpen so far won’t scare any batters IF he could add at least 2 pitchers: 1impact SP and 1 impact RP.(like a B- type in terms of salary) NYM should be OK. A few young AAA pitchers should be able to provide some help. Signing 1 of Sasaki or Buehler would really help NYM
Teams that might want to leave a spot open for Sasaki run the risk of missing out on others who sign (or are acquired via trade) between now and the Jan 15-23 window
Sasaki, Buehler, Burnes, Manaea, even Quintana, Junis, Means
Happy to pass on Flaherty
Joe S
Absolutely love this move. Outside of LAD, Philadelphia has best rotation.
FrankRoo
This is all the return they get after failing to get the cubs deal done? Seems like a weak return.
LU
Luxury tax forcing DD into 3 “wait and see” additions. Will Romano, Kepler, and Luzardo even be healthy for any postseason run? Right now the gamble is costing an additional 25 million + luxury tax. Hopefully, elbow, knees, and back will hold up!
johncal25
Glad the Cubs didn’t get him. Wasn’t interested in giving up Triantos or Caissie for two years of Luzardo. The guy has great stuff but he is lefty and injury prone. Would definitely give one of those guys up for S Alcantara though.
Whiskey and leather balls
They traded two years of Luzardo for who? Within the division? And added another piece? Thats well beyond pathetic
GarryHarris
Total Phillies win
KrukHimOut
I’m not about to claim I know anything about the prospects or all that much about Luzardo. But this looks like it could be a really nice addition by the Phillies based on the peripherals.
I don’t care so much if the Phillies bring in big names this off-season. I just want them to obtain useful players. Hopefully Luzardo and Kepler prove to be smart additions.
formerlyz
…well, I take back the good things I said about Bendix…
This is a Jeffrey loria/dan Jennings type of trade
Macintosh can hit, by the way…
But maybe I could see this if Luzardo had 1 year left…maybe…still would be light. Now? This is missing a significant piece
At that point, just let Luzardo showoff healthy until May, and trade him then…should have moved all these people in November 2023, you wait until now, for this? I also was the only one complaining about the realmuto deal, so I’m sure I’ll be in a similar spot now, but man, I don’t get why you would take back people soooo far away from the big leagues, with profiles that don’t scream volatility as loudly
You needed to get quality, and legit assets back for these people, and once again, asset management was nowhere to be found; a 16+ year personification of this organization
websoulsurfer
If Luzardo can stay healthy, this is a great move for the Phillies. He slots in at the back of that rotation and solidifies that spot.
Caba is an exceptional defensive SS, but he just got his first taste of full season ball in 2024 and is 2-3 years away from contributing at the major league level. In other words, the type of prospect that Dombrowski trades from every team he is the GM. MLB Pipeline graded Caba’s defense a 70 and Baseball America was even more bullish on his defensive skills. He makes great contact and rarely strikes out yet can still draw a walk. If he an develop even 10-12 HR power he will be a major league player for a very long time. Just not now, so he is expendable in the Phillies organization who are focused on a WS berth.
For a rebuilding Marlins team, Caba is a perfect fit. About the time Xavier Edwards starts to get expensive in arbitration and is traded away, Caba should be ready to step into his shoes.
YourDreamGM
Fair trade. Boring trade. Prospect sites nailed it so awful for me. All comes down to Philly medical team. If healthy and capable of past years it’s a huge win for them. If not it’s a loss. Traded 2 awesome prospects with everything but power. So keeps them from being awesome. But a gold glove ss for a backend starter is terrible. He really needs to be healthy.
JoeBrady
About right, like it is for many SPs. A vintage Luzardo is a very good pitcher, but a Caba that develops modest power will be a very good SS.
onthebucks
Hopefully, Luzardo can help the Phils. If he’s healthy, it will certainly allow the Phils to either trade or extend Suarez before free agency and trade Walker when the right deal comes along. However, caution should be taken thinking a rotation of Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Suarez and Luzardo is the key to the world series. The Phils once had one of the greatest rotations in the history of baseball – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton, but failed to win a championship. Top shelf pitching is important to winning a championship, but so is dominant hitting and run production. What many fans fail to realize is a great starting rotation may control the opposing team for 6 or 7 innings. After that, a team needs a bullpen that is just as effective as its starting rotation. One weak link in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning can totally undo what the best rotation in baseball has worked hard to accomplish. The same team also needs consistent and substantial hitting and run production. As the Phils have seen in the past 3 seasons, good hitting doesn’t get the job done when it’s inconsistent. For the past 3 seasons, the Phils have had an all-star team of hitters on paper, but the inconsistency of most of the hitters and inability of these players to come through in clutch situations has been the difference between a world championship and elimination in the first round of the playoffs. The addition of Kepler and Luzardo may or may not help the Phils in 2025. Adding them to the current lineup is unlikely to improve the team enough to better the Mets and/or Braves in the NL East, or the Dodgers in the entirety of the NL. The Phils still need a slugging centerfielder and lights out closer. The Philies would also benefit offensively by upgrading the DH position from a full-time DH to a DH-by-committee. As Casey Stengel was fond of saying, “Good pitching always beats good hitting – and vice versa,” The Phils need to heed Stengel’s advice and complement a championship rotation with a championship bullpen and championship offense. The current Phillies team is getting close, but handing out the cigars is still a few key players premature.
energel
aint no one readin all dat
onthebucks
energy, Those who are customary to reading words with more than syllable don’t seem to have any problem!
websoulsurfer
WTH? Maybe use smaller words and a comma or two. Paragraphs really help too. That was totally unreadable.
energel
i like luzardos.
178iq
Warts?
MLBTR needs to hire editors
“Meanwhile” has to START the sentence. It’s not supposed to come in the middle, separated by commas.
“Then” adds nothing to this sentence: “In terms of the actual financial cost, then, bringing Luzardo into the fold figures…” All it does is needlessly clutter an already dense sentence.