United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 20 - Nov. 3
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
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June 5, 2018 |
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The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected three candidates to serve in the U.S. House, one from each of the state's three congressional districts.
Partisan breakdown
Heading into the November 6 election, the Democratic Party held two of the three congressional seats from New Mexico.
| Members of the U.S. House from New Mexico -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 2 | 3 | |
| Republican Party | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 3 | 3 | |
Incumbents
Heading into the 2018 election, the incumbents for the three congressional districts were:
| Name | Party | District |
|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lujan Grisham |  Democratic |
1 |
| Steve Pearce |  Republican |
2 |
| Ben Ray Lujan | Democratic |
3 |
2016 Pivot Counties
New Mexico features three congressional districts that, based on boundaries adopted after the 2010 census, intersected with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.
The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. Heading into the 2018 elections, the partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties was more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that had at least one Pivot County, 63 percent were held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[1]
Candidates
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District 1
General election
General election candidates
- Debra Haaland (Democratic Party) ✔
- Janice Arnold-Jones (Republican Party)
- Lloyd Princeton (Libertarian Party)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Did not make the ballot:
Republican primary candidates
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
Libertarian
District 2
General election
General election candidates
- Xochitl Torres Small (Democratic Party) ✔
- Yvette Herrell (Republican Party)
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
Did not make the ballot:
Republican primary candidates
Did not make the ballot:
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
District 3
General election
General election candidates
- Ben Ray Luján (Incumbent) (Democratic Party) ✔
- Jerald Steve McFall (Republican Party)
- Christopher Manning (Libertarian Party)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
- Ben Ray Luján (Incumbent) ✔
Republican primary candidates
Libertarians
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. House wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[4] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[5] | -48 | D | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[6] | -48 | D | |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
- U.S. House primaries, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Seattle Times, "Congressional race in New Mexico gets Libertarian candidate," January 8, 2018
- ↑ KRWG, "The Full List: New Mexico Major Party Candidates," February 13, 2018
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
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