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Presidential election in Vermont, 2016

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General election in Vermont
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton
Electoral votes: 3
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Bernie Sanders
Republican Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Vermont
  U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Other state executives
Vermont State Senate
Vermont House of Representatives
Vermont judicial elections
Vermont local judicial elections
State ballot measures
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Vermont held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 1, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Hillary Clinton won Vermont in the general election.
  • In 2016, Vermont had three electoral votes, which was 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.1 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Vermont cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 60 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Vermont supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 70 to 26.67 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Vermont took place on March 1, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 85.17 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 32.3 percent.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Vermont secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Vermont

    CheckedBoxOffset.jpg Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (Independent)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Gloria Estela La Riva/Eugene Puryear (Liberty Union)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Vermont, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 56.7% 178,573 3
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 30.3% 95,369 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.2% 10,078 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 2.1% 6,758 0
         Independent Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.3% 1,063 0
         Liberty Union Gloria Estela La Riva/Eugene Puryear 0.1% 327 0
         - Write-in votes 7.3% 22,899 0
    Total Votes 315,067 3
    Election results via: Vermont Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Vermont's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Vermont, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Vermont participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Vermont voted for the winning presidential candidate 60 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Vermont voted Democratic 26.67 percent of the time and Republican 70 percent of the time.

    Third party votes

    In 1912, Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.[3]

    Presidential election voting record in Vermont, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Vermont, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 66.6% 199,239 3
         Republican Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 31% 92,698 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.2% 3,487 0
         N/A Write-ins 0.5% 1,427 0
         Justice Ross Anderson/Luis Rodriguez 0.4% 1,128 0
         Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio 0.2% 695 0
         Write-in Jill Stein 0.2% 594 0
    Total Votes 299,268 3
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Virgil Goode and Roseanne Barr.[5]

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Vermont, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden 67.6% 219,262 3
         Republican John McCain/Sarah Palin 30.5% 98,974 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 1% 3,339 0
         N/A Write-ins 0.4% 1,398 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 1,067 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.2% 500 0
    Total Votes 324,540 3
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Roger Calero, Gloria LaRiva, Brian Moore and Cynthia McKinney.[6]

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Vermont electors

    In 2016, Vermont had three electoral votes. Vermont's share of electoral votes represented 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 1.1 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republican electors in Vermont were selected at state party conventions.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[7][8]

    Vermont was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Vermont elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Vermont covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Bernie Sanders
    • Poll leader: Bernie Sanders
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Barack Obama
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 16
    • Total delegates at stake: 26
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 16
    • Total delegates at stake: 16

    Democrats

    Bernie Sanders won Vermont's 2016 Democratic presidential primary.[9] Polls conducted in February 2016 showed that Sanders had overwhelming support in his home state and it was no surprise that he swept the state’s Democratic presidential primary on Super Tuesday. In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling February 14-16, 2016, 86 percent of participants supported Sanders, the state’s junior senator. Hillary Clinton polled at 10 percent. A Castleton University poll conducted February 3-17, 2016, showed Sanders with 83 percent support and Clinton with 9 percent.[10]

    Super Tuesday exit polls conducted by CNN showed overwhelming support for Sanders among liberal and moderate Democrats in Vermont and among all age groups. Sanders had significant support from Vermont's youngest voters. Ninety-five percent of Democratic voters age 17-29 voted for Sanders.[11]

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won Vermont's Republican primary. John Kasich finished a close second.[12] A Vermont Public Radio poll released on February 22, 2016, showed Donald Trump leading with 33 percent, and Marco Rubio and John Kasich tied for second with 14 percent each. Kasich made a late push in Vermont when he held a town hall in Colchester, Vermont, on Saturday, February 20, 2016, while Republican primary voters cast ballots in South Carolina.[13]

    Republican primary exit polls conducted by CNN showed that Trump won 34 percent of men and 31 percent of women; Kasich had the support of 32 percent of men and 30 percent of women. At 30 percent, Marco Rubio had the most support among voters in the 17-44 age bracket. Trump was the choice of voters 45 and over, winning 34 percent. Kasich had the support of 34 percent of voters with incomes over $50,000 and Trump had the support of 34 percent of voters with incomes under $50,000. Kasich was popular with Independent voters, winning 34 percent of their votes. Trump had the support of 25 percent of Independent voters.[14]

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Vermont Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngBernie Sanders 85.7% 115,900 16
    Hillary Clinton 13.6% 18,338 0
    Martin O'Malley 0.2% 282 0
    Roque De La Fuente 0.1% 80 0
    Other 0.2% 238 0
    Spoiled votes 0.1% 158 0
    Blank votes 0.2% 260
    Totals 135,256 16
    Source: Vermont Secretary of State and CNN

    Republicans

    Vermont Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 32.3% 19,974 8
    John Kasich 30% 18,534 8
    Marco Rubio 19.1% 11,781 0
    Ted Cruz 9.6% 5,932 0
    Ben Carson 4.1% 2,551 0
    Jeb Bush 1.8% 1,106 0
    Rand Paul 0.7% 423 0
    Chris Christie 0.6% 361 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.3% 212 0
    Rick Santorum 0.3% 164 0
    Other 0.6% 390 0
    Spoiled votes 0.2% 137 0
    Blank votes 0.3% 191 0
    Totals 61,756 16
    Source: Vermont Secretary of State and CNN

    Candidate list

    Democrats[15]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[15]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz


    Carly Fiorina
    John Kasich
    Rand Paul


    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Vermont)
    Poll Bernie Sanders Hillary ClintonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Castleton University
    February 3-17, 2016    		83%9%8%+/-6.09258
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		86%10%4%+/-3.7693
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Vermont)
    Poll Donald Trump Marco RubioTed CruzJohn KasichBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Castleton University
    February 3-17, 2016    		32%17%11%10%3%27%+/-9.01118
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Vermont had 26 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 16 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[16][17]

    10 party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[16][18]

    Vermont superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Vermont, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Vermont had 16 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, three were district-level delegates (all for the state's single congressional district). District-level delegates were allocated proportionally; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the statewide vote in order to be eligible to receive any district delegates. If a candidate received more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he or she received all of the state's district delegates.[19][20]

    Of the remaining 13 delegates, 10 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated proportionally; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the statewide vote in order to be eligible to receive any of the state's at-large delegates. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he or she received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[19][20]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Vermont, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Vermont, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Vermont presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 10 Democratic wins
    • 22 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D

    State profile

    Demographic data for Vermont
     VermontU.S.
    Total population:626,088316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):9,2173,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:94.9%73.6%
    Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:1.9%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:1.7%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:91.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:36%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$55,176$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Vermont.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Vermont

    Vermont voted for the Democratic candidate in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Vermont, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[21]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Vermont had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Vermont coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
    4. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    5. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    6. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    7. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    8. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    9. ↑ The New York Times, "Vermont Primary Results," March 1, 2016
    10. ↑ RealClear Politics, “Vermont Democratic Presidential Primary,” March 1, 2016
    11. ↑ CNN, "Vermont Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    12. ↑ The New York Times, "Vermont Republican Primary," March 1, 2016
    13. ↑ Burlington Free Press, "Bernie Sanders with huge Vermont polling lead," February 22, 2016
    14. ↑ CNN, "Vermont Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Vermont Secretary of State, "Qualified Candidates for the Vermont Presidential Primary- March 1, 2016," accessed January 12, 2016
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    17. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    18. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    21. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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