United States Senate elections, 2012
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 6, 2012. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for election with the addition of special elections to fill vacancies that occurred in the 112th United States Congress.
Nate Silver of the New York Times called the Senate battle a tossup for partisan control.[1] An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election.[2] Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report wrote in October 2012 that the Senate race "couldn't be more volatile."[3] According to The Washington Post, more than half of the 33 races were expected to be competitive which was "more than any recent election."[4]
The Democratic Party successfully defended 22 of 23 seats on election night -- the most held by either party since 1964.[5] With Republican candidates winning only eight seats, this was the worst performance by a major party since the 1950s.[6]
Partisan breakdown
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Republican Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
The 33 Class 1 U.S. Senate seats were up for election in 2012. Of those 33 seats, 23 were previously held by Democrats and 10 by Republican senators. Thus, Democrats needed to win 21 seats to retain their majority while the GOP needed to win 14 seats to win back the chamber.
Overall, Republicans needed a net gain of four seats on election night to wrest control of the chamber. According to Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "When the cycle started no one gave Democrats a shot a holding the majority." Rob Jesmer, executive director of the Republican Senatorial Committee was hopeful about Republican chances. "There's very good movement across the board," he said.[7]
Margin of victory
There were a total of 33 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:
- The fewest votes were in Wyoming, with only 244,445 total votes.
- The most votes were in California, with 12,578,511
- The average margin of victory was 20 percent.
- The smallest margin of victory, where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp defeated Rick Berg (R) by 0.9 percent.
- The largest margin of victory was in Wyoming, where Republican John Barrasso defeated Tim Chesnut (D) by 54.1%
- 11 races had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent. Of those 11 races, 9 were Democratic winners while 2 were Republican.
| Margin of Victory in 2012 United States Senate Races | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Winner | Margin of Victory | Total Votes | Top Opponent | ||||
| North Dakota |  Heidi Heitkamp |
0.9% | 319,738 | Rick Berg | ||||
| Nevada |  Dean Heller |
1.2% | 997,805 | Shelley Berkely | ||||
| Arizona | Jeff Flake |
3% | 2,243,422 | Richard Carmona | ||||
| Montana | Jon Tester |
3.7% | 486,066 | Denny Rehberg | ||||
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin |
5.6% | 2,999,757 | Tommy Thompson | ||||
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich |
5.7% | 775,176 | Heather Wilson | ||||
| Indiana | Joe Donnelly |
5.8% | 2,560,102 | Richard Mourdock | ||||
| Virginia | Timothy M. Kaine |
5.9% | 3,802,196 | George F. Allen | ||||
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown |
6% | 5,449,018 | Josh Mandel | ||||
| Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren |
7.5% | 3,184,196 | Scott Brown | ||||
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey, Jr. |
9.1% | 5,627,422 | Tom Smith | ||||
| Connecticut | Christopher Murphy |
12.1% | 1,503,168 | Linda McMahon | ||||
| Florida | Bill Nelson |
13% | 8,189,946 | Connie Mack | ||||
| Nebraska | Deb Fischer |
15.5% | 788,572 | Bob Kerrey | ||||
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill |
15.7% | 2,725,752 | Todd Akin | ||||
| Texas | Ted Cruz |
15.8% | 7,864,822 | Paul Sadler | ||||
| Mississippi | Roger Wicker |
16.6% | 1,241,568 | Albert N. Gore, Jr. | ||||
| New Jersey | Robert Menendez |
19.5% | 3,366,604 | Joe Kyrillos | ||||
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow |
20.8% | 4,652,849 | Pete Hoekstra | ||||
| Washington | Maria Cantwell |
20.9% | 3,069,417 | Michael Baumgartner | ||||
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin III |
23.9% | 647,521 | John R. Raese | ||||
| Hawaii | Mazie Hirono |
24.8% | 437,082 | Linda Lingle | ||||
| California | Dianne Feinstein |
25% | 12,578,511 | Elizabeth Emken | ||||
| Maryland | Ben Cardin |
29.7% | 2,630,840 | Dan Bongino | ||||
| Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse |
29.8% | 418,189 | B. Barrett Hinckley, III | ||||
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar |
34.7% | 2,843,207 | Kurt Bills | ||||
| Tennessee | Bob Corker |
34.7% | 2,304,961 | Mark E. Clayton | ||||
| Utah | Orrin G. Hatch |
35.6% | 999,728 | Scott Howell | ||||
| Delaware | Thomas Carper |
37.9% | 379,347 | Kevin Wade | ||||
| Maine |  Angus King |
38.3% | 724,720 | Cynthia Dill | ||||
| New York | Kirsten Gillibrand |
42.9% | 7,116,628 | Wendy Long | ||||
| Vermont | Bernie Sanders |
46.1% | 292,510 | John MacGovern | ||||
| Wyoming | John Barrasso |
54.1% | 244,445 | Tim Chesnut | ||||
Retiring incumbents
Ballotpedia staff counted 10 total current incumbents who did not run for re-election in the 2012 elections.
- 5 Democrats
- 4 Republicans
1 Independents
Primary
The following lists displays the dates that each state held United States Senate primaries in 2012.
| This map displays the month of each Congressional primary in 2012 |
 |
|
March
April
May
June
|
July
August
September
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State-by-state breakdown
The following table displays the 33 seats that were up for election, including the winners.
Campaign finance
Republican-leaning organizations spent $135 million on U.S. House races during the 2012 cycle while Democratic organizations spent $89 million.[8]
October 2012
The Campaign Finance Institute released a report detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. From October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 10 Senate races alone. Those races were:[9]
- Virginia: $4.3 million
- Wisconsin: $3.6 million
- Ohio: $3.3 million
- Montana: $1.9 million
- Florida: $1.4 million
- Connecticut: $1.4 million
- Maine: $1.2 million
- Nevada: $1.2 million
- North Dakota: $1.0 million
- Arizona: $1.0 million
Crossroads GPS released seven ads over the course of one week at a cost of $5 million. The states and costs:[10]
- Nevada: $1,096,548
- Indiana: $980,046.71
- Maine: $309,266.73
- Montana: $672,795.36
- North Dakota: $214,002.60
- Virginia: $477,040.14
- Wisconsin: $1,173,169.77
Majority PAC, a super PAC supporting Senate Democrats, reported raising $10.4 million in September and an additional $9.7 million through the middle of October.[11]
Candidates by state
For a list of all candidates who ran for office by state, see this page.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[12]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| November 1, 2012[13] | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| October 4, 2012[14] | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| September 13, 2012[15] | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| August 21, 2012[16] | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| July 12, 2012[17] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| May 31, 2012[18] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| May 10, 2012[19] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| March 22, 2012[20] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| March 1, 2012[21] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| January 26, 2012[22] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| December 22, 2011[23] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| December 1, 2011[24] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Changes by month
October 2012
- From September 13, 2012, to November 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- Pennsylvania went from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
- Michigan went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- Hawaii went from Tossup to Lean Democrat
- Arizona went from Lean Republican to Tossup
- Nebraska went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
September 2012
- From August 31, 2012, to September 13, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- New Mexico went from Tossup to Lean Democrat.
- Connecticut went from Likely Democrat to Tossup
- Indiana went from Lean Republican to Tossup
- Arizona went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
August 2012
- From July 1, 2012, to August 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Missouri went from Tossup to Likely Democrat.
July 2012
- None
May 2012
- From March 1, 2012, to May 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- Indiana went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
- New Jersey went from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
- Washington went from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.
March 2012
- From January 26, 2012, to March 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Maine went from Likely Republican to Tossup.
January 2012
- From December 22, 2011, to January 26, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
December 2011
- From December 1, 2011, to December 22, 2011, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Texas went from Likely Republican to Strong Republican.
Sabato Crystal Ball
Each month the Crystal Ball released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[25]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. Senate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| August 12, 2012[26] | 9 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| April 5, 2012[27] | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| December 1, 2011[28] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
See also
External links
- Politics1.com, "Director of 2012 U.S. Senate Candidates"
- 270towin.com, "2012 Senate Election"
- Roll Call, "2012 Race Rating Map"
- Public Policy Polling, "U.S. Senate 2012"
- Rasmussen Reports, "2012 Senate Balance of Power"
- Roll Call, "Casualty List: 112th Congress
- Open Secrets, "Congressional Races"
Footnotes
- ↑ New York Times, "In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again," August 15, 2012
- ↑ The Hill, "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
- ↑ National Journal, "Mitt Romney Breaks His Losing Streak," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post, "The expanding Congressional battlefield," accessed October 10, 2012
- ↑ Bloomberg, "Senate Democrats: Best Defensive Record Since 1964 — Held 22 of 23," November 10, 2012
- ↑ Salon.com, "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
- ↑ Star Tribune, "Voter ticket-splitting in half-dozen states could decide whether Dems keep Senate or GOP wins," October 13, 2012 (dead link)
- ↑ Huffington Post, "Democratic Super PACs Trim Conservative Advantage In Congressional Races," November 10, 2012
- ↑ Campaign Finance Institute, "10 Senate, 3 House Races Top $1 Million in Spending Over the Past 7 Days Alone," October 12, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call, "Crossroads GPS Announces $5 million ad buy in seven states," October 16, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "With Growing Willingness, Donors Come to Aid of Democratic ‘Super PACs’," October 19, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 23, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 22, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 Senate Ratings," August 12, 2012
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 Senate Ratings," April 5, 2012
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
