New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik (R)
 
56.1
 
131,981
Image of Tedra Cobb
Tedra Cobb (D)
 
42.4
 
99,791
Image of Lynn Kahn
Lynn Kahn (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.5
 
3,437

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 235,209
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2020 →
← 2016
New York's 21st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 12, 2018
Primary: June 26, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Elise Stefanik (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+4
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New York's 21st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
New York elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 21st Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Elise Stefanik (R), who was first elected in 2014.

New York's 21st Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state and includes Clinton, Franklin, St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, Hamilton, Essex, Warren, Washington and Fulton counties and parts of Saratoga and Herkimer counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik (R)
 
56.1
 
131,981
Image of Tedra Cobb
Tedra Cobb (D)
 
42.4
 
99,791
Image of Lynn Kahn
Lynn Kahn (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.5
 
3,437

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 235,209
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Political party key:
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
Darkred.png Conservative Party
Begins.png Green Party
Darkpurple.png Independence Party
Blueslashed.png Reform Party
Cyanslashed.png Tax Revolt Party
Women's Equality Party Women's Equality Party
Darkgreen.png Working Families Party

Fusion voting candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tedra Cobb
Tedra Cobb
 
55.7
 
10,853
Image of Katie Wilson
Katie Wilson
 
12.1
 
2,356
Image of Dylan Ratigan
Dylan Ratigan
 
11.9
 
2,313
Image of Emily Martz
Emily Martz
 
11.1
 
2,165
Image of Patrick Nelson
Patrick Nelson
 
9.2
 
1,802

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 19,489
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 21

Candidate
✔
Image of Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Candidates

General election

Political party key:
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
Darkred.png Conservative Party
Begins.png Green Party
Darkpurple.png Independence Party
Blueslashed.png Reform Party
Cyanslashed.png Tax Revolt Party
Women's Equality Party Women's Equality Party
Darkgreen.png Working Families Party

General election candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Fusion voting candidates

Primary election

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Democratic primary)
See also: New York's 21st Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:


Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:


Green Party Green Party

Libertarian Party Libertarians


Grey.png Independents


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 21st Congressional District the 207th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.21. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.21 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Elise Stefanik Republican Party $2,808,067 $2,998,028 $352,229 As of December 31, 2018
Tedra Cobb Democratic Party $1,547,984 $1,508,662 $39,321 As of December 31, 2018
Lynn Kahn Green Party $5,838 $6,807 $149 As of December 6, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Elise Stefanik (R) defeated Mike Derrick (D) and Matt Funiciello (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced any opposition in the primaries on June 28, 2016.[6][7]

U.S. House, New York District 21 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngElise Stefanik Incumbent 65.3% 177,886
     Democratic Mike Derrick 30.2% 82,161
     Green Matt Funiciello 4.6% 12,452
Total Votes 272,499
Source: New York Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 21st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 21st Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Elise Stefanik (R) defeated Aaron Woolf (D) and Matt Funiciello (Green) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 21 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngElise Stefanik 55.1% 96,226
     Democratic Aaron Woolf 33.8% 59,063
     Green Matt Funiciello 11% 19,238
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 141
Total Votes 174,668
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[8]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[12]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[13][14]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New York heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the New York State Legislature. They had a 104-41 majority in the state Assembly and a 32-31 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • New York was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: New York elections, 2018

New York held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New York
 New YorkU.S.
Total population:19,747,183316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):47,1263,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:64.6%73.6%
Black/African American:15.6%12.6%
Asian:8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:18.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:34.2%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$59,269$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New York.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New York's three largest cities were New York (pop. est. 8,622,698), Hempstead (pop. est. 774,959), and Brookhaven (pop. est. 486,170).[16][17]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New York from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the New York State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New York every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 59.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 36.5% 22.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 63.3% Republican Party Mitt Romney 35.2% 28.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 62.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 26.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 58.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.1% 18.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 60.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 35.2% 25.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New York from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 70.7% Republican Party Wendy Long 27.1% 43.6%
2012 Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand 67.6% Republican Party Wendy Long 24.7% 42.9%
2010 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 64.0% Republican Party Jay Townsend 31.1% 32.9%
2008 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 67.0% Republican Party John Spencer 31.0% 36.0%
2004 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 71.2% Republican Party Howard Mills 24.2% 47.0%
2000 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.3% Republican Party Rick Lazio 43.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New York.

Election results (Governor), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Andrew Cuomo 50.3% Republican Party Rob Astorino 40.3% 10.0%
2010 Democratic Party Andrew Cuomo 61.0% Republican Party Carl Paladino 32.5% 28.5%
2006 Democratic Party Eliot Spitzer 65.3% Republican Party John Faso 27.1% 38.2%
2002 Republican Party George Pataki 49.4% Democratic Party Carl McCall 33.5% 15.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New York in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New York 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 9 33.3% Democratic Party 18 66.7% D+7
2014 Republican Party 9 33.3% Democratic Party 18 66.7% D+7
2012 Republican Party 6 22.2% Democratic Party 21 77.8% D+15
2010 Republican Party 8 27.6% Democratic Party 21 72.4% D+13
2008 Republican Party 3 10.3% Democratic Party 26 89.6% D+23
2006 Republican Party 6 20.7% Democratic Party 23 79.3% D+17
2004 Republican Party 9 31.0% Democratic Party 20 69.0% D+9
2002 Republican Party 10 34.5% Democratic Party 19 65.5% D+9
2000 Republican Party 12 38.7% Democratic Party 19 61.3% D+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New York Party Control: 1992-2024
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D
Assembly D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ Chris Schmidt for Congress, "Home," accessed October 24, 2017
  3. ↑ Steve Krieg for Congress, "Home," accessed October 24, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  7. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016
  8. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  12. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  15. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  16. ↑ New York Demographics, "New York Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  17. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts New York," accessed September 4, 2018
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New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (18)
Republican Party (10)

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