California's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House California District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom McClintock
Tom McClintock (R)
 
54.1
 
184,401
Image of Jessica Morse
Jessica Morse (D)
 
45.9
 
156,253

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 340,654
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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California's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Tom McClintock (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+10
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
California's 4th Congressional District
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California elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Tom McClintock (R), who was first elected in 2008.

California's 4th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes the counties of Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Mariposa and Tuolumne. It also contains portions of Fresno, Madera, Nevada and Placer counties.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 4

Incumbent Tom McClintock defeated Jessica Morse in the general election for U.S. House California District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom McClintock
Tom McClintock (R)
 
54.1
 
184,401
Image of Jessica Morse
Jessica Morse (D)
 
45.9
 
156,253

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 340,654
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 4

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 4 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom McClintock
Tom McClintock (R)
 
51.8
 
109,679
✔
Image of Jessica Morse
Jessica Morse (D)
 
20.3
 
42,942
Image of Regina Bateson
Regina Bateson (D)
 
12.4
 
26,303
Image of Mitchell White
Mitchell White (R)
 
6.8
 
14,433
Image of Roza Calderon
Roza Calderon (D)
 
6.4
 
13,621
Image of Robert Lawton
Robert Lawton (D)
 
2.2
 
4,593

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 211,571
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 4th Congressional District the 131st most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[3]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
California's 4th Congressional District , 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Tom McClintock (R) Jessica Morse (D)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Clarity Campaign Labs
(October 15-16, 2018)		Jessica Morse for Congress 49%45%6%+/-3.4840
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Race background

California's 4th District was added to the list of the DCCC's targets in November 2017.[4]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tom McClintock Republican Party $1,749,597 $1,800,347 $224,826 As of December 31, 2018
Jessica Morse Democratic Party $3,813,237 $3,711,060 $102,177 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: California's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Tom McClintock (R) defeated Bob Derlet (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. McClintock and Derlet defeated Sean White (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[5][6]

U.S. House, California District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom McClintock Incumbent 62.7% 220,133
     Democratic Bob Derlet 37.3% 130,845
Total Votes 350,978
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 4 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom McClintock Incumbent 61.5% 135,626
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBob Derlet 27.5% 60,574
     Democratic Sean White 11.1% 24,460
Total Votes 220,660
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom McClintock (R) defeated Art Moore (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom McClintock Incumbent 60% 126,784
     Republican Art Moore 40% 84,350
Total Votes 211,134
Source: California Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.

2018 elections

See also: California elections, 2018

California held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for California
 CaliforniaU.S.
Total population:38,993,940316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):155,7793,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:61.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.9%12.6%
Asian:13.7%5.1%
Native American:0.7%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:31.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,818$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[9][10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 61.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 31.6% 30.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.1% 23.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.1% Republican Party John McCain 37% 24.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.4% 10%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 53.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 41.7% 11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Kamala Harris 61.6% Democratic Party Loretta Sanchez 38.4% 23.2%
2012 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 62.5% Republican Party Elizabeth Emken 37.5% 25%
2010 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 52.2% Republican Party Carly Fiorina 42.2% 10%
2006 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 59.5% Republican Party Richard Mountjoy 35.1% 24.4%
2004 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 57.8% Republican Party Bill Jones 37.8% 20%
2000 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 55.9% Republican Party Tom Campbell 36.6% 19.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.

Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 60% Republican Party Neel Kashkari 40% 20%
2010 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 53.8% Republican Party Meg Whitman 40.9% 12.9%
2006 Republican Party Arnold Schwarzenegger 55.9% Democratic Party Phil Angelides 39.0% 16.9%
2002 Democratic Party Gray Davis 47.3% Republican Party Bill Simon 42.4% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016
Year Democrats Democrats (%) Republicans Republicans (%) Balance of power
2016 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2014 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2012 Democratic Party 38 71.7% Republican Party 15 28.3% D+23
2010 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2008 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2006 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2004 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2002 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2000 Democratic Party 32 61.5% Republican Party 20 38.5% D+12

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D S R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ The Washington Post, "After massive rejection of Trumpism, Democrats expand offensive to take back House," November 9, 2017
  5. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  6. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
  10. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
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California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Laphonza Butler (D)
Alex Padilla (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (42)
Republican Party (12)

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