鐃緒申For a long time, Saudi Arabia has been a "state" run by the Saud royal family as a family business. The Saud family has maintained a tacit agreement with the Wahhabis, a strict Islamic sect, to enforce their social norms, but by importing everything but sand and oil, backed by huge oil revenues, and by hiring foreign labor to provide a simple workforce, the Sauds have provided a super-welfare state that does not require its citizens to work or pay taxes, and does not allow the Sauds to meddle in its politics. They have maintained an unspoken contract. In recent years, however, reforms have become necessary due to (1) the slump in oil prices, (2) the population growth, which has increased sevenfold in half a century to over 30 million, and (3) the generational change of aging leaders.
鐃緒申The current crown prince, MBS, is trying to change the dependence on oil with regard to (1) and (2), diversify the economy, and promote measures to provide employment to the people and require them to work and pay taxes. If the monopoly of the royal family is not compromised, it will not be able to withstand the pressure of democratization in the future. With regard to point (3), the current king's generation had a smooth succession to the throne because the power was transferred among many brothers, and there was also a soundness derived from the council system that allowed incompetence to be disqualified, as in the case of the second Saud. Perhaps because MBS has only one cousin and he is young, he has a tendency to be unnecessarily violent, which may lead to a backlash. For example, he has detained and killed Khashoggi and many other critics in domestic affairs, and in foreign affairs, he has cut diplomatic ties with Iran and Qatar, and made a speech to the Iranian dissident group MKO as a former intelligence chief. Moreover, since 2003, the government has intervened in the Yemeni civil war, mistakenly bombing civilian facilities and sacrificing many children in a food crisis, which has damaged the legitimacy of the Saud family, which holds the holy city of Mecca and Medina and considers itself the guardian of Islam.
鐃緒申Not only is MBS's "reform" unlikely to succeed at present, but his ambition to win in Yemen, a country where even Nasser failed, also shows that he, like former Prime Minister Hariri Lebanon, wears shoes that are too big for him, and that is why he will eventually stumble into reality.
鐃緒申The current crown prince, MBS, is trying to change the dependence on oil with regard to (1) and (2), diversify the economy, and promote measures to provide employment to the people and require them to work and pay taxes. If the monopoly of the royal family is not compromised, it will not be able to withstand the pressure of democratization in the future. With regard to point (3), the current king's generation had a smooth succession to the throne because the power was transferred among many brothers, and there was also a soundness derived from the council system that allowed incompetence to be disqualified, as in the case of the second Saud. Perhaps because MBS has only one cousin and he is young, he has a tendency to be unnecessarily violent, which may lead to a backlash. For example, he has detained and killed Khashoggi and many other critics in domestic affairs, and in foreign affairs, he has cut diplomatic ties with Iran and Qatar, and made a speech to the Iranian dissident group MKO as a former intelligence chief. Moreover, since 2003, the government has intervened in the Yemeni civil war, mistakenly bombing civilian facilities and sacrificing many children in a food crisis, which has damaged the legitimacy of the Saud family, which holds the holy city of Mecca and Medina and considers itself the guardian of Islam.
鐃緒申Not only is MBS's "reform" unlikely to succeed at present, but his ambition to win in Yemen, a country where even Nasser failed, also shows that he, like former Prime Minister Hariri Lebanon, wears shoes that are too big for him, and that is why he will eventually stumble into reality.
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