Upswing
Upswing
Upswing
Every hand in poker can be placed into one of four categories. Once you
know which category your hand is in, you will know how to play it
profitably.
These are hands that we are simply done with. These hands are too
weak, and it is very likely our opponent will have a playable hand. We
give these hands up to any immediate action.
If the action checks through, then these hands may become Category
3 hands that would then bluff. As the Category 2 hands become Category
1 value bets, they need bluffs to balance them out. Category 4 hands fit in
nicely to these situations.
While it may sound "simple," it's actually incredibly important that you
understand the theory behind these categories to allow you to make the
correct decisions about which hands fit into what category.
100% of our decisions in poker are made by using this simple strategy. If
you can understand how these categories work and how to properly rank
and place hands, then you will be a very strong poker player (and a rich
one at that!).
The categories are easy to understand... but ranking hands is a bit more
tricky. There are many different situations in poker. Here are some
general guidelines on how to play a hand in a certain category.
A very strong hand. (On the flop) A strong top pair, overpair, two pair,
three of a kind, straights, flushes & full houses.
Qualifies if you can bet the current street and also value bet all
remaining streets.
You expect to be called by a worse hand often enough to make all
subsequent bets profitable.
In other words, a hand is a value bet if it is a very likely winner when you
bet the river and are called.
On the current street (oftentimes the flop), many middle pairs or even
weak top pair hands just don't make sense as a bet.
The idea here is to just make it to the next street as cheaply as
possible, then reevaluate your situation.
In some situations, if your opponent checks back or checks to you on
the next street your hand will now be good enough to be
recategorized as a Category 1 valuebet.
In most situations you will have to either keep checking or just end the
hand by checking back the river and taking it to showdown.
Here's a trick I use if I'm struggling to decide whether to place a hand in
this category or Category 1...
I ask myself "If I bet my hand on this street, as well as all subsequent
streets, and my opponent decides to call on the river, do I think I will have
the best hand at showdown?"
In these examples, the answer will be no if your hand gets to the river
unimproved.
On the flop, these hands should have a chance to improve to the best
hand on the turn or river. On the turn, it is not as important that they
are drawing to the best hand.
Straight draws, flush draws, and gutshots all make great semibluffs.
It is critical that you choose these hands wisely as we are only going
to win this pot if our opponent folds or we improve, both of which can
be tricky.
The best rule of thumb for semibluffing is this: The earlier on in a hand
you are, the more drawing power your bluff should have.
For instance [76s] is a great preflop "bluff" because it will often improve to
a hand that could potentially win at showdown.
[QT] would make a good flop bluff on [983], whereas [Q7] would likely be
too weak to bluff this early in the hand.
If say the flop checks through on [983], the turn was a [5], and our
opponent checked again, [Q7] would be a ripe bluffing opportunity.
On the river your hand doesn't matter. The river is different from every
other street in poker, as there is no more equity. In the purest sense,
when you bet the river you are either bluffing or valuebetting – your hand
cannot improve.
The idea is to pick hands that make sense as bluffs. If the board is [KQ6-
][9][8] and you held [A2] and the action checked all the way down to you,
there is a very good chance your hand is not good. Your opponent would
likely play [22-55, 6x, or a better ace high] for a check three times. Your
hand will either chop the pot or lose at showdown. Bluffing with [A2]
makes sense as its purpose is to fold out stronger hands that would
beat it at showdown.
Examples:
Category 4 (Our hands that totally whiffed the board – they just
suck)
We want nothing to do with these hands.
They have a marginal chance to win the pot with a bet right now and
an even worse chance to make the best hand when called.
These hands are just total misses.
It is smart to pick your very worst hands to check/giveup with.
The most important thing to realize about these hands is that as your
opponent takes a more passive line, likely indicating that they also do not
have a particularly strong hand, these hands can rank up and become
bluffs later on.
Category 4 hands will oftentimes be bad ace highs, very weak pairs, or
hands with a very weak or no draw at all.
Examples: On [KQ6] On [Jh8h4h]
Hand Rankings
Remember, what we're doing is categorizing our hands and playing them
accordingly.
This can affect how you play your hand on different streets and can help
you make decisions that would previously have been tough to make.
We raise and get a caller. Let's look at how the rankings of these hands
change from an absolute to a relative scale preflop and on the flop.
We have the following range postflop after RFI and one player has called:
[KK,TT,77,AKs,ATs,A8s,QJs,98s]
2. KK
3. tt
4. A8
5. 77
6. AKs
7. ATs
8. QJs
To put these into perspective with the four categories we talked about
earlier, here's how we'd rank them...
1. (Valuebet) [98, KK, TT]
2. (Medium Strength) [77, A8]
3. (Bluff) [QJs]
[77, A8]
...are the middling portion of our range. These hands are decent, but they
are not good enough to want to play a large pot. These hands are played
passively.
...is a better hand to bluff with as its value to improve to a pair is similar
to that of
[AKs, ATs];
However, any one of the remaining tens in the deck would make
[QJs]
... the nut straight. Decide what hands have the most chance to win
that have low absolute ranking and use these hands as your bluffs.
[AKs, ATs];
...are your weakest hands. Whenever you have your weakest hand in
holdem, it's fine to concede the pot to your opponent. Besides, you
will have so many stronger hands in this spot anyway. You don't have to
fight tooth and nail for every pot.
Even when pots are small and seemingly unimportant, you
should still figure out the categories so that you can guide yourself into
making the best possible profitable decisions.