What’s going to win Best Ongoing Game at The Game Awards?

One issue with handing out annual awards for games, and naming a game of the year, is that some of the most played games on the planet don’t slot neatly into an annual schedule at all. Many are enjoyed well past their year of release; in fact, many don’t reach their peak of quality or audience size until years later. These include games designed and engineered to be a perpetual “live service,” like Fortnite, but aren’t limited to that category. In the age of the patch, almost any video game can be a living, evolving thing, and newness isn’t the sole preserve of new releases. What if the best game you played all year actually came out years ago?

At Polygon, our solution to this is simply to expand eligibility for our game of the year rankings to include expansion packs and any game that has had a substantial update that year. But Geoff Keighley’s The Game Awards handles things differently. Eligibility for its top prize, Game of the Year — as well as for most other categories — is strictly defined by release date. Expansion packs and downloadable add-ons aren’t eligible, either.

In order to recognize this huge part of gaming culture, in 2017, The Game Awards created the Best Ongoing Game category. In TGA’s slightly clunky language, this category rewards “outstanding development of ongoing content that evolves the player experience over time.”

As you might expect, this category is pretty stable, with many of the same names cropping up year after year. In the seven years since it’s been awarded, only five games have won; Fortnite and Final Fantasy 14 have each won twice. In fact, only 13 games have ever been nominated for this award. For the last three years, four of the five nominees have been the same: Apex Legends, Final Fantasy 14, Fortnite, and Genshin Impact.

This should make the award incredibly easy to predict by selecting from these and a few other live-service top dogs, like Destiny 2. But there are a couple of factors that can mix it up. One is that an expansion pack for any game, even a single-player role-playing game, can push it into this category. Another is that the judges sometimes like to reward a game that has seen a lot of improvement that year — hence No Man’s Sky’s nomination in 2018 and win in 2020. Both of these factors combined to help Cyberpunk 2077 beat all the usual live-service suspects and win the Ongoing Game award last year.

On top of that, 2024 looks like it might mark a changing of the guard in this category, with some perennial favorites on shakier ground than usual — or just getting a bit boring. In fact, we’re sticking our necks out and saying that, for the first time ever, no nominees will carry over from 2023. Here’s our ranking of the five likely nominees, followed by some other contenders.

Why it could win: With a 94 Metascore, Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree tops Metacritic’s list of best games in 2024; it’s a universally acclaimed extension of FromSoftware’s universally acclaimed game, itself a Game of the Year winner in 2022. The voting jury is sure to want to show it some love somewhere, and Ongoing Game is the only place to do it. A lock for a nomination.

Weaknesses: There’s a sense that Elden Ring doesn’t really belong in this category — and, unlike Cyberpunk 2077, it doesn’t have that “most improved” sentiment to back it up, since it was brilliant to begin with.

Why it could win: Diablo 4 didn’t make a big splash at TGA on its launch last year, scoring just two nominations (for Best Multiplayer and Innovation in Accessibility). But it has two strings to its bow this year. One is a big expansion, Vessel of Hatred, launching on Oct. 8. The other is Loot Reborn, the complete overhaul of its loot systems (among other things) that was a resounding hit with the community and critics in May, granting it that “most improved” buzz. On top of that, Diablo 4 is comfortable in this category; a live-service game through and through that can be expected to compete for this award for years to come.

Weaknesses: If Vessel of Hatred disappoints in any way, it could erase the goodwill from Loot Reborn. And… it’s not Elden Ring.

Why it could win: Players of ConcernedApe’s adored and hugely influential life sim have been bowled over by the amount of effort and content that went into the 2016 game’s 1.6 update this year — especially considering it was put together by a (mostly) solo developer who’s still working on his follow-up, Haunted Chocolatier. A well-timed console and mobile release for the patch on Nov. 4 will refresh judges’ minds about it at exactly the right moment.

Weaknesses: Although there’s lots to love in the update, it’s more the kind of patch that reminds you why you loved a game in the first place, rather than revolutionizing it.

Why it could win: Destiny 2 has been nominated for Ongoing Game five times out of seven; it should never be counted out of contention for this award. It also had an extremely well-received expansion this year — perhaps the best ever — in the form of The Final Shape, which has an 89 Metascore.

Weaknesses: It’s been a rocky year for Destiny 2 in other ways, with layoffs at the studio and a slow pace of updates worrying the community, although a new road map plan for the future seems to have won players back around.

Why it could win: It would be a nice valedictory touch for World of Warcraft to be nominated in this, its 20th anniversary year. And it would be deserved, with a very well-received expansion (The War Within) following 12 months of inventive, risk-taking updates in both the modern game and WoW Classic. If there were ever a time for WoW to steal Final Fantasy 14’s spot among the nominees, it’s now.

Weaknesses: WoW’s age definitely counts against it — FF14, though no spring chicken itself, probably has more active players among the voting jury.

Fortnite: It would be quite something for Fortnite to miss a nomination for the first time since its first win in 2018. It’s one of the most consistently updated, constantly evolving games in the world, with a massive community. But the last 12 months have been quiet, especially compared to the sensation that was 2023’s Fortnite OG.

Genshin Impact: HoYoverse’s three-time nominee is a consistent contender in this category, but there’s a sense that its limelight has been stolen by new releases like Wuthering Waves and HoYoverse’s own Zenless Zone Zero.

Final Fantasy 14: With four nominations and two wins under its belt, Square Enix’s MMO is a heavyweight in this category. But the reception for latest expansion Dawntrail was a bit soft (79 Metascore), and for the first time in a few years, it can’t necessarily claim to be the leading MMO.

Apex Legends: A five-time nominee with a huge community and more cred with critics than the populist Fortnite, Apex Legends is always strong. But it’s had a tough year — Respawn had to walk back unpopular battle pass changes and continues to struggle with cheating.

Starfield: It’s an outside bet, but if Starfield’s first expansion Shattered Space turns around the game’s underwhelming reputation, it could propel it to a nomination. We’ll find out on its release on Sep. 30.