Game of the Year: Which of the 2024 Game Award nominees will win?

This year marks the 10th anniversary of The Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself quite firmly as the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming. It remains promotionally overstuffed to the point that it’s still arguably better known for trailers than awards, but that’s changing. And although its winners tend to be pretty conservative, they are broadly representative of the critical consensus. Its voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media, so the chances are, your favorite publications’ and critics’ picks feed into The Game Awards. (Polygon’s do.)

The top prize of the night is, of course, Game of the Year — and there are clear indicators of what makes a Game of the Year at The Game Awards, based on a decade of data. On Nov. 18, The Game Awards announced the nominees for this and all the other categories, mostly confirming those indicators. Still, it’s a particularly open race in 2024, with no cut-and-dried frontrunner. Below, after crunching numbers and taking temperatures, we pick the likely Game of the Year winner and rank the rest of the six nominees in order of their likeliness to win. We’ll find out if we got it right when the winner is announced at The Game Awards on Dec. 12.

Update (Nov. 18): Now that the nominations have been announced, we’ve replaced our list of predicted nominees with the six actual nominees. How well did we do? We got the top four right, but didn’t call Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree (there was ambiguity over its eligibility, which was only publicly confirmed last week) or Black Myth: Wukong, which we knocked out of our ranking a while back, likely us underestimating the international vote. We’ve also removed the references to all the unlucky dark horses that didn’t make it. For the record, those included Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Helldivers 2, Animal Well, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom.

Why it could win: With a 94 Metascore at time of writing, Team Asobi’s delightful platform game enjoys the strongest critical consensus of any game this year (and rightly so) bar Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree expansion. It’s also technically dazzling, which is historically a strong plus in GOTY consideration.

Weaknesses: Games nominated in the Family category, as Astro Bot is, very rarely break through in the main competition. However, it also scored a nomination in the Action/Adventure category, which has been the source of lots of past winners.

Momentum (holding steady): Astro Bot has united a broad swathe of critics and fans like no other game this year; its quality is self-evident, its vibe is upbeat and totally unproblematic, and few critics are immune to its naked nostalgia appeal. At seven nominations, it’s tied with Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth as the most-nominated game. In a confusing year, it’s looking like the default choice, and the game to beat so far.

Why it could win: The distinctive role-playing games of Atlus’ Studio Zero have been critical darlings for a long time, but Persona 5 (which was nominated for GOTY and won Best RPG in 2017) propelled them to a new level of popularity and acclaim. Now Metaphor is here to ride that wave. With solid game mechanics, strong storytelling, and memorable characters in a favored genre, this could be the moment Atlus’ brand of RPGs outshines genre stalwart Final Fantasy. Despite not having Persona brand recognition, it’s already Atlus’ fastest-selling game, too.

Weaknesses: Despite their rising popularity, Atlus’ games still operate in more of an expanding niche than in the mainstream, and the old-school turn-based combat is a turn-off for some (though you might have said similar about last year’s winner, Baldur’s Gate 3).

Momentum (slightly 📉): Metaphor’s Metascore has settled at an amazing 94, and it’s such a substantial game that most critics who committed to it are still deep in the weeds, discovering the delicious complexities of its late-game battle system. It has six nominations, second only to Astro Bot and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth. But now that public voting enters the mix, its slightly less broad appeal might hurt it.

Why it could win: As a big production from a famous series in a favored genre, with strong story and performance elements and a 90-plus Metacritic rating, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth has no peer this year. The game also benefits from rabid fan support in the PlayStation community (it’s a PS5 exclusive), and it won Most Anticipated in 2023.

Weaknesses: Sales were slightly underwhelming, according to publisher Square Enix itself, and the critical consensus around it is not quite as unanimous as that 92 Metascore would suggest.

Momentum (slightly 📈): After a while where it seemed outmaneuvered by Metaphor: ReFantazio’s recency bias and greater critical cred, Rebirth has bounced back with a strong set of nominations, including in the key Game Direction, Performance, and Narrative categories. It will likely benefit from support in the public vote, too.

Why it could win: In terms of indie darlings, poker roguelike Balatro is right up there with the likes of Animal Well and UFO 50, with a 90 Metascore. It’s also more widely and consistently played — not only is it popular, but the people who like it are probably still playing it, and unlikely to stop before voting. It might be the stickiest game of the year.

Weaknesses: It’s a purely systemic card game with zero narrative elements, something that does not historically go over well at The Game Awards. There’s also a question mark over how broad its international appeal is, an important factor for TGA’s diverse voting jury.

Momentum (slightly 📈): Balatro’s convenient new mobile version has arrived at the perfect moment to remind the jury why they couldn’t stop playing it back in February. And it has overperformed in terms of nominations, with five under its belt — including in Game Direction, where games of its type rarely if ever appear. Not to be ruled out.

Why it could win: Shadow of the Erdtree is a major expansion to the game that won GOTY in 2022. It’s also the single best-reviewed release of the year, still in the top spot on Metacritic’s list, although Astro Bot and Metaphor have since equalized with it. The reverence people have for Elden Ring and the FromSoftware project in general is still a force to be reckoned with.

Weaknesses: It’s an expansion. Its eligibility for Game of the Year came as a surprise to some members of the voting jury — but setting that aside, the perception of it as something additional, rather than a wholly new work, will definitely hold it back.

Momentum (new entry 📈): Erdtree has secured four nominations, including for best Role-Playing Game, and muscled its way far further to the front of the pack that we thought possible for a DLC.

Why it could win: This Chinese action-adventure is a big technical showpiece in a favored genre, and it seems to have strong popular support: In GOTY discussions online, it is one of the two most-mentioned games, alongside FF7 Rebirth. Even though the public vote only counts for 10% of the final vote, these vocal fans are sure to rally around it.

Weaknesses: With an 81 Metascore, Black Myth: Wukong is at the lower end of critical consensus when it comes to Game of the Year nominees. And while it’s a massive seller, much of its audience seems to be in China, which only has a small presence on the visible voting jury. Developer Game Science is politically controversial, which might deter some voters, too.

Momentum (re-entry 📈): Wukong is a true dark horse, overcoming a measure of critical snobbery and to earn China its first GOTY nomination and delight its legion of fans. But that’s probably as far as it’s going — especially when you consider its nomination in the Action category, a genre which rarely prevails in Game of the Year.

The Game Awards winners will be revealed during the show on Dec. 12.