Risks

Central banks have been pursuing an expansionary monetary policy since before the pandemic, although the health and economic crisis of COVID-19 has boosted asset purchase programmes. After the Great Recession, a new phase began, characterised by low interest rates and liquidity injections. These policies spilled over into financial markets and are leading to higher inflation. These policies stabilised the situation in the short term, but if they continue indefinitely there is a risk of debt overhang, investment mistakes and high inflation in the future. The aim of this article is to analyse monetary policy developments from the Great Recession to the COVID-19 crisis. Correlations between different macroeconomic variables will be shown through IBM SPSS Statistics. For this purpose, bi-variate correlations were used. For the predictions and confidence of the model data, Tableau Desktop Edition was used, which in turn was used for the generation of the graphs. There is a strong correla...

Fraud is one of the most harmful phenomena, because it leads to collapse of organizations, causes economic downfall of countries, and destroys faith in a country’s capital markets. The impact of fraud is complex and has varying degrees depending on political and financial institutional structures of a country. In this paper, we investigate the combined effect of economic and non-economic variables on fraud using a sample of 41 developed, in transition, and developing European countries. The data cover the period July 2014–December 2020. Panel data techniques of pooled estimation and the dynamic panel data/generalized method of moments (DPD/GMM) is used, keeping in view the endogeneity perspective. Nevertheless, two-way impacts of fixed effect model estimation—cross-sectional and time-based (panel) effects (alternatively)—are used for analyzing the relationship among the given variables, based on Hausman specification test results. Empirical results of panel data extended REM and FEM...

Background. The aim of this study was to explore difficulties at work from anaesthetists' own perspective and to examine how anaesthetists handle and cope with situations that are perceived as difficult and potentially stressful. Methods. Two sets of interviews were conducted with 19 specialist anaesthetists in Sweden. The first set of interviews aimed at finding how the anaesthetists experienced difficulties at work. It consisted of in-depth interviews based on one open-ended question. We analysed the interviews with a phenomenological method, looking for themes in anaesthetists' descriptions of difficulties at work. In the second set, the interviews were semi-structured with open-ended questions, based on themes found in the first interview set. These interviews aimed at exploring how the interviewees described their ways of handling difficulties and how they coped with potentially stressful situations. Results. Analysis of the first set of interviews resulted in five themes, describing how the anaesthetists experienced difficulties at work. All interviewees talked about difficulties related to more than one of the themes. The second set of interviews revealed two main categories of ways of handling difficulties. First, problem solving consisted of descriptions of methods for handling difficult situations which aimed at solving problems, and second, coping strategies described ways of appraising potentially stressful situations that minimized stress, despite the problem not being solved. Conclusions. The anaesthetists interviewed in this study maintained that they enjoyed work and could see no external obstacles to doing a good job. They had arrived at a reconciliation of their work with its inherent difficulties and problems. Getting access to their coping strategies might help young anaesthetists to come to terms with their work.

The main objective of this study is to analyse consumers’ behavioural intentions to use cardless banking technology in Malaysia. The intentions to use this technology are evaluated through an extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework. The data were collected from 447 Maybank and Hong Leong Bank customers in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur. The results show that self-efficacy (SE) had a positive impact on the perceived ease of use (PEOU), while perceived risk (PR) had a negative impact on perceived usefulness (PU) and intention to use (IU) cardless banking. Next, the perceived ease of use (PEOU) had a positive impact on perceived usefulness (PU). The results further support the idea that perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU) had the strongest impacts on intention to use (IU). The practical implications of this study suggest that developers of cardless banking technology should introduce secure, less complicated, and easily accessible technology to improve co...

El objetivo del presente estudio fue indagar las prácticas de cuidado y de riesgo que se despliegan en escenarios nocturnos de presencia masiva de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Asimismo, se indagaron los motivos percibidos para el consumo de sustancias psicoactivas. Para ello se entrevistó a 16 jóvenes de entre 21 a 35 años de edad. Los datos fueron analizados siguiendo la propuesta de la teoría fundamentada y con el soporte del programa Atlas.Ti. Se analizaron prácticas individuales, prácticas grupales, y a nivel del entorno. Entre las prácticas de riesgo se mencionaron con frecuencia la disponibilidad de las sustancias, la ingesta excesiva y las mezclas. Respecto de las prácticas de cuidado, se destacó el valor del grupo al mantenerse todos juntos y brindar ayuda a sus miembros. Se discuten las implicancias prácticas de estos resultados, y se presentan las limitaciones y líneas futuras de investigación.

Abstract—The Internet and web applications are playing very important role in our today‘s modern day life. Several activities of our daily life like browsing, online shopping and booking of travel tickets are becoming easier by the use of web applications. Most of the web applications use the database as a back-end to store critical information such as user credentials, financial and payment information, company statistics etc. An SQL injection attack targets web applications that are database-driven. This is done by including portions of SQL statements in a web form entry field in an attempt to get the website to pass a newly formed rogue SQL command to the database. Multiple client side and server side vulnerabilities like SQL injection and cross site scripting are discovered and exploited by malicious users. The principle of basic SQL injection is to take advantage of insecure code on a system connected to the internet in order to pass commands directly to a database and to then ...

Without prejudice to the recognition of the actual and positive efforts and results in the Rwandan agricultural sector, this paper questions the sustainability of a number of policies, provide ‘food for thoughts’, and share innovative tracks opened by various stakeholders.

This article was published in the 4th edition of Afrique Durable 2030 (pp.135-149) by the Think & Do tank Africa 21. The full (bilingual french-english) publication is accessible on its platform - here: http://www.africa21.org/4eme-numero-dafrique-durable-2030-lagriculture-africaine-les-defis-de-nourrir-la-population-developper-leconomie-et-preserver-lenvironnement/

Over the last decade there have been further developments in our knowledge of the risks and benefits of benzodiazepines, and of the risks and benefits of alternatives to benzodiazepines. Representatives drawn from the Psychopharmacology Special Interest Group of the Royal College of Psychiatrists and the British Association for Psychopharmacology together examined these developments, and have provided this joint statement with recommendations for clinical practice. The working group was mindful of widespread concerns about benzodiazepines and related anxiolytic

Diffusions are widely used in finance due to their tractability. Driftless diffusions are needed to describe ratios of asset prices under a martingale measure. We provide a simple example of a tractable driftless diffusion which also has a bounded state space.

This paper explores the potential to converge the theory of political ecology with the environmental justice discipline as means to promote more effective civil society actions against macroeconomic risks, whilst analysing the case of South Africa. Such a convergence could result in mutual benefit for both arenas that already share a commitment towards justice. Whilst political ecology has focused on theoretical perspectives, which are mostly applied in rural areas, and examined justice in a larger macroeconomic framework, environmental justice has been confined to an empirical focus at a local urban level, which is unable to link local struggles to larger political economic frameworks. Additionally, both arenas generally view civil society as coherent entities that act against the state and industry. Both disciplines should re-evaluate geographic scales and reconfigure romanticised understandings of civil society actions in order to attain justice.

The Bank of Municipalities in Turkey has a unique hybrid form in which infrastructural and superstructural investments of municipalities are financed and fullfilled. After 1980's in line with Turk ey's development and integration to neo-liberal based global economy, it is needed to reorganize The Bank of Municipalities. This change has been shaped by economic realities and necessities of neo-liberal economic model which has been adopted since 1980's. The emergence of The Bank of Municipalities as a problem in political arena, predominantly is the result of the pressure of international economic institutions, Fort that reason all the actors and factors that forced the transformation of The Bank of Municipalities with its all dimensions must be taken into account under the framework of systematic policy analysis. In this work, it is analysed that the changing policies about the role of The Bank of Municipalities in the area of financing local authorities. This process has been leading by the conception of " New Public Management ". Policy analysis of changing role of The Bank of Municipalities will be conducted within the framework of Laswell's " Stages Model of Public Policy Analysis ". In the road to the membership of European Union; within the framework of regional development and governance model in which local administration autonomy has been increasing, the more effective role of 'The Bank of Municipalities' and its relation with structural, organizati onal and functional recommendations will be presented systematically in the light of the paper findings. Keywords: the bank of monicipalities, reorganization policies, stages analysis model, opportunuties and risks .

Commentary on Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century: a discussion and Call to Action on Global Catastrophic Risks (2020) arising from a roundtable of the Commission for the Human Future.
Risks? Threats? Challenges? Goals?
Initiatives articulating global threats, risks, challenges and goals?
How many global threats, risks, challenges and goals merit recognition?
Habitual use of a 10-fold strategic framework?
Systemic perspective potentially implied by "Ten Commandments"?
Eliciting a 10-fold systemic framework
Experimental animations in 3D of 10-fold configurations of strategic dimensions
Strategic comprehension and dimensional compactification
Application to insights offered by the Club of Rome
Reconciling disparate strategic frameworks

Bahan uji (obat) yang akan dimanfaatkan pada manusia harus lolos dari pengujian di laboratorium secara tuntas dan dilanjutkan dengan penelitian pada hewan percobaan untuk mengetahui kelayakan dan keamanannya. Hewan percobaan diperlukan untuk mengamati dan mengkaji seluruh reaksi dan interaksi bahan uji yang diberikan, serta dampak yang dihasilkan secara utuh dan mendalam. Kelayakan penggunaan hewan percobaan pada penelitian harus dikaji dengan membandingkan risiko yang dialami hewan percobaan dengan manfaat yang akan diperoleh untuk manusia. Setiap penelitian yang menggunakan hewan percobaan secara etis harus menerapkan prinsip umum etika penelitian kesehatan dan prinsip 3 R yaitu: replacement, reduction, dan refinement. Perlakuan terhadap hewan percobaan perlu dituangkan secara rinci dalam protokol penelitian sebagai pengganti informed consent pada subjek manusia. J Indon Med Assoc. 2013;63:112-6 Kata kunci: hewan percobaan, etika penelitian, risiko, manfaat Korespondensi: Endi Ridwan,

The effective operation of national innovation systems can be a source of many opportunities, but it cannot be forgotten that innovation in itself may mean limiting but also generating various types of risks for the functioning of the local market. The main aim of the article is to present the concept and classification of national innovation systems in the world and to try to answer whether the type of NIS determines the level of innovation of the economies of the European Union countries. The following research thesis was formulated in the study: the type of National Innovation System determines a certain level of innovation in the economy of an European Union country, i.e., in countries belonging to a developed NIS, the level of innovation of the economy is higher than in countries belonging to developing systems. The results of the analysis confirm the research thesis. In the empirical part, the level of innovation in the European Union countries was assessed using the synthetic...

Over the last decade there have been further developments in our knowledge of the risks and benefits of benzodiazepines, and of the risks and benefits of alternatives to benzodiazepines. Representatives drawn from the Psychopharmacology Special Interest Group of the Royal College of Psychiatrists and the British Association for Psychopharmacology together examined these developments, and have provided this joint statement with recommendations for clinical practice. The working group was mindful of widespread concerns about benzodiazepines and related anxiolytic

Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

E-procurement is constantly receiving lot of attention from industries, and government agencies. Analysts believe that utilization of e-procurement can lead to enormous cost saving and efficiency in procurement process. Though, e-procurement has benefited the global business tremendously, its expected growth rate has been moving downwards. The present study explores how the benefits and risks associated to e-procurement affect the e-procurement implementation. The differences and similarities among firms in different setting are also investigated. By using Swedish and Indian firms, the results show that cost benefit is the main driver for companies to implement e-procurement. The problems of implementation and integration of existing infrastructure are holding back companies from implementing e-procurement. But benefits are overpowering risks and companies are moving toward more aggressive strategic approach of implementing e-procurement. Finally, e-procurement is typically used for buying indirect material and the buyer side model is most dominated in industry.

The purpose of this article is to briefly review the opportunities that social media present to counselors and psychologists. Particular attention was given to understanding some of the more important common risks inherent in social media and the potential ethical dilemmas which may arise for counselors and psychologists who embrace them in their practice. Key considerations of issues pertinent to an online presence such as multiple relationships, visibility and privacy, maintaining ethical principles and professional boundaries are being discussed.

The literature review and the findings of the interviews point very clearly to the fact that internal audit in the majority of organisations taking part in this study is already playing a very positive and constructive, albeit limited, role in mergers and acquisitions and to a lesser degree in divestitures. Further exploration of such a role highlighted a desire by internal audit to become more associated with these activities at an earlier stage in the process. As to divestitures, the small number of organisations where internal audit is involved in the different divestiture stages may reflect less internal auditors' disinterest in the process than the limited extent of divestiture activity from the sample companies.

Animal welfare has been more and more widely accepted as a scientific discipline during the last 25 years and our knowledge of animal functioning, including the extent to which they are sentient, has increased. One result of this has been that the public have demanded more legislation to protect animals and this has been passed in increasing numbers of countries but there are still many countries that do not have adequate laws protecting animals. One of the keys ways to improve animal welfare in the long term is for all those who use or have responsibility for animals to receive adequate education and training about the biological functioning of those animals, including ways in which their welfare might be made better or worse. To date, retailers' codes of practice have had the major effect on the welfare of farm animals although both laws and codes are needed. Further scientific studies of animal welfare are also needed but it is important to develop better methodologies for the enforcement of laws and codes and to provide adequate manpower to do this. Where the impact of different factors on animal health, or any other aspect of animal welfare, is being reviewed, careful analysis should involve not only risks but also benefits. Legislators are not just risk managers and a balance has to be struck between risks and benefits in every area of legislation.

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Comment le dossier des V(r)TH a hérité du conflit des OGM
Francis Chateauraynaud (GSPR-EHESS) Version du 26 février 2018
Le vote de la loi française de 2008 sur les OGM, transposition tardive et intensément débattue de la directive européenne de 2001, avait réussi à faire bifurquer, sans le clore définitivement, un conflit historique. Le cas des OGM n'a pas de véritable précédent et a durablement marqué les politiques du risque, au croisement des biotechnologies, de l'agriculture et de l'environnement, sur plusieurs échelles d'action et de jugement – de la parcelle aux arènes internationales. En France, fin 2008, la plupart des observateurs tablaient sur une période de calme relatif, fondée sur le compromis instauré par la loi et dont le concept de coexistence, forgé un peu plus tôt à l'échelle européenne, formulait le principe 2. Si, comme dans d'autres domaines, les conflits autour des biotechnologies passent par des périodes de silence, ou de faible intensité, ils ne sont jamais complètement éteints. Sans redéployer l'histoire mouvementée des OGM, marquée par plusieurs phases de mobilisations 3 , il faut d'abord rappeler que ce dossier a surtout pris la forme d'un conflit autour des modèles agricoles, transformant les rapports de forces et de légitimités entre les acteurs, en laissant des traces profondes dans de multiples champs d'expertise. S'il a produit des innovations notables en matière d'évaluation des risques –dont la création du Haut Conseil des Biotechnologies–, le dossier des OGM a mis durablement l'ensemble du système d'expertise « sous pression ». Et tout indique que ce n'est pas fini. Les croisements de plus en plus fréquents entre les alertes sanitaires relatives aux pesticides ou aux herbicides, et les enjeux agronomiques, économiques et juridiques liés aux différents modèles 1 Ce texte a servi de base à la contribution au rapport d'évaluation de l'ANSES, Risques et bénéfices liés à l'utilisation des variétés rendues tolérantes aux herbicides non-transgéniques cultivées en France (rapport final prévu dont la sortie publique est prévue pour octobre 2018). Cette expertise collective a été menée suite à la saisine du 4 mars 2015 par la ministre de l'Ecologie, Ségolène Royal. Cette saisine faisait suite à un amendement introduit dans les discussions de la loi sur la biodiversité. Selon la ministre qui défendait l'amendement : « Le problème existe puisque ces plantes sont quasiment des OGM, sans moratoire cependant. J'ai saisi l'Anses le 4 mars dernier avec le ministre de l'agriculture-je peux vous communiquer la lettre de mission. Votre amendement pourrait accélérer ce dossier, en montrant la volonté du législateur de faire la lumière sur le sujet ».

In North America, chemical engineering undergraduate curricula do not usually contain compulsory courses dedicated to project management. Yet, early in their careers, chemical engineers are frequently assessed based on their abilities to completely solve an industrial plant problem. The complete solution involves much more than just technical calculations. Issues such as scheduling, scope, quality, safety and costs must always be addressed. In this article, the ingredients of three lecture hours of material dedicated to introducing chemical engineering students to the important area of project management are described.

Online banking and other e-banking modes are a very convenient way to banking in terms of speed, convenience and delivery costs, but they have brought many risks alongside them. Online banking has created a new risk orientation and even new forms of risk. Technology plays an important role as both a source and a tool for risk control. The purpose of this research is to identify the security situation of the e-banking application and to analyze the risks and attacks that could occur to the customers that, although it's an ebanking application attacks could happen. Several mitigations were mentioned to overcome attacks like, access control is to mitigate eavesdropping this means that, restricting access to sensitive data is mandatory. Another way to mitigate is, update and patch which is for SQL injection meaning, it's vital to apply patches and updates when it's available. These attacks may attack the whole application or target an individual where private information is stolen or changed. This research also shows how to apply several more different protections measures to protect oneself and organization from being targets of cybercrime.

Canned foods and beverages constitute a major part of the global food supply. Consumers expect canned foods and beverages to maintain their flavour, texture and colour and be free of illness-causing pathogens. This is generally accomplished by coating can interiors with protective resins. With recent calls for the removal of commonly used epoxy resins, an understanding of the availability, technological feasibility and health profiles of alternative coating options is needed. Some of this information is publicly available but more research and dialogue are needed in order to make informed decisions about coating alternatives' technological feasibility, risks and benefits.

This paper focuses on analyzing the contribution of Environmental Scanning System to the risk management of the export operations of SME. From a methodological point of view, we have mobilized a theoretical exploration based on a meta-analysis research concerning the risks faced by SME exporters and the efficient role to set up the Environmental Scanning System for these business units. The results of this research allow us to determine the benefits of this Environmental scanning on these companies. Résumé Ce papier a pour objectif d'analyser la contribution du système de la veille stratégique au management de risques des PME exportatrices. Sur le plan méthodologique, nous avons mobilisé une exploration théorique des travaux de recherche portant sur les risques en PME exportatrices et le rôle actif de la mise en place d'un système de veille dans lesdites PME. Les résultats de cette recherche nous ont permis de déterminer les apports de la veille stratégique au sein de ces entreprises.

In 1984, Charles Perrow (CP) released a landmark book entitled Normal Accident (NA), in which he defended the argument of the inevitability of accident in certain type of high risk systems. The aim of this paper is, thirty years after the book’s publication, to reconsider this book and offer a new interpretation. Indeed, in hindsight, the message of the book seems today as compelling as ever. Accidents and catastrophes have continued to occur over the last three decades. However, the technological determinism of the book has been criticised and shown to be too restricted to account for the social nature of these phenomena. In opposition to his structuralist view, some authors have argued an extended socio-technological model of the normality of accidents. Indeed, Charles Perrow himself  often complained about the misuse of his own technological rational to interpret accidents. Consequently, he has regularly used instead a wider, macro-social, critical and power view of organisations and society to interpret accidents. This second posture was clearly in the background of the 1984 book, but has often been neglected, unnoticed or overlooked by commentators, proponents and critics.  This paper aims to highlight this second underlying message of the book. This second message could arguably be today, in retrospect, the book’s most valuable and compelling contribution to our understanding of accidents and safety and a basis for contemporary research.

The development of video games can be traced back to the 80s of the last century. The final phase of the gaming industry's development brought with it another phenomenone-sport. "Electronic sport" presupposes playing video games in a competitive setting, with emphasis on increased "institutionalization" of gaming activity through the organization of e-sports teams and official international competitions. In order to define esports, it's important to note that not every activity of playing video games can be described as e-sport, but every e-sport is essentially playing video games. The interest for the phenomenon of electronic sport has increased over the past several years in all social sciences, including sociology. This paper aims to present several dimensions of the "electronic sport" phenomenon, review the existing research in this field, compare various aspects of e-sports and "traditional" sports, and discuss the formation of new subcultural group gathered around video games. The key task of this paper is to examine the distance between e-sports and "traditional" sport and frame the socioeconomic scale of the phenomenon.

Una empresa del sector metalmecánico de origen Colombiano presentaba constantes fallas en el proceso de recepción y entrega interna de materias primas importadas, para lo cual se decide reunir a un equipo interdisciplinario interno en la compañía para desarrollar e implementar la metodología de Análisis de Modo de Falla y Efecto (AMFE), para evaluar el proceso, detectar sus debilidades más grandes, y entender cuáles son los principales puntos de control para atacar los riesgos con mayor probabilidad de materializarse.

A Colombian company from the metalworking sector had constant failures in the process of receiving and intern delivery of imported raw materials, for which it was decided to bring together an internal interdisciplinary team from the company to develop and implement the methodology of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), to evaluate the process, detect its greatest weaknesses, and understand which are the main control points to attack the risks that are most likely to materialize.

Géopolitique Russe Contemporaine

Géopolitique : qu'est-ce que l'Otan et pourquoi la Russie ne lui fait-elle pas confiance ? Qu'elle est la politique stratégique de défense de Vladimir Poutine ?  Un véritable enjeu de guerre civilisationnelle se déroule au centre de l'Europe, bien loin des caricatures occidentales. Le président Poutine affirme que les puissances occidentales utilisent l'alliance pour encercler la Russie et il souhaite que l'OTAN cesse ses activités militaires en Europe de l'Est et cela est vrai, cette stratégie militaire des USA est réelle et met en péril la stabilité et la sécurité de toute l'Europe. Les États-Unis ont rompu un accord qu'ils avaient signé en 1990 selon lequel l'Otan ne s'étendrait pas vers l'est, l'accord en question ne fut jamais respecté.

Les USA sauveurs du monde occidental ?

En dehors de la déstabilisation américaine en Europe au sens politique, géopolitique et militaire, impliquant une guerre programmée avec la Russie, basée sur une réalité scénarisée, mensongère, trompeuse, et dangereuse pour l'humanité, nous sommes en droit de nous demander aussi si le retrait des troupes de l'OTAn de l'Afghanistan n'est pas une façon détournée et déguisée d'armer une armée terroriste  dans le but d'exporter une guerre totale en Centre Asie dans le futur.

Permettez-moi de vous citer cet excellent article :

Pascal Samama Le 26/08/2021 à 10:28
Les Talibans ont récupéré le matériel militaire laissé par les Américains et ceux de l'armée afghane
Les Talibans ont récupéré le matériel militaire laissé par les Américains et ceux de l'armée afghane - JAVED TANVEER
Les talibans disposent de véhicules blindés, d'avions, d'hélicoptères, de drones et d'armes modernes livrés par les Américains jusqu'en juin dernier. Les experts cherchent à connaitre le montant de la facture payée par les Etats-Unis pour équiper l'armée afghane.
Les Talibans disposent d'une puissance militaire imposante, c'est un fait. L'armée américaine leur a laissé un énorme arsenal, celui de leurs troupes, mais aussi les équipements donnés par les Etats-Unis à l'armée afghane. Les livraisons d'armements se sont même poursuivies jusqu'à l'été. Dans un rapport, le Sigar (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), un organisme officiel américain de surveillance, évalue à 212 millions de dollars le matériel livré en seulement deux mois, soit entre le 30 avril au 30 juin 2021.
Dans cette liste, des munitions de différents calibres (du 5.56 pour fusils d'assaut à des roquettes de 70 mm) pour 28,3 millions de dollars, des vêtements militaires pour 3,6 millions de dollars, des pièces détachées (moteurs diesel et transmissions hydrauliques, 5,48 millions de dollars), mais aussi des véhicules blindés et des avions de combat.
Avant l'été, les Etats-Unis ont livré à l'armée afghane six A-29 Tucano, des avions destinés à la lutte antiguérilla et à la formation des pilotes (133,51 millions de dollars), ainsi que 174 blindés légers M1151 Humvee (41,5 millions de dollars).
Parmi le matériel américain flambant neuf récupéré par les Talibans, 6 avions A-29 Tucano et 174 blindés Humvee
Parmi le matériel américain flambant neuf récupéré par les Talibans, 6 avions A-29 Tucano et 174 blindés Humvee © Sigar
Ce montant est néanmoins une goutte d'eau dans les dépenses américaines pour équiper l'armée afghane. Pour la moderniser et la former, les Etats-Unis auraient dépensé 83 milliards de dollars en vingt ans.
Dans son dernier rapport qui fait le bilan sur 20 ans de présence en Afghanistan, John F. Sopko, patron du Sigar nommé par Barack Obama en 2012, estime que chaque année, 300 millions de dollars ont été empochés par le gouvernement afghan pour financer "une armée fantôme" et "en gonflant les salaires de l'armée nationale afghane et d'autres forces".
Le nombre de fusils de combat, d'armes de poing, d'explosifs et de munitions est difficilement quantifiable. Sur des images postées sur les réseaux sociaux, les forces talibanes exhibent sur les réseaux sociaux et face aux médias des armes automatiques, M4 et M16, fusils de snipers de type M24 SWS (pour Sniper Weapon System). Pour le matériel lourd, nombre d'experts tentent d'évaluer les dépenses américaines pour créer une armée afghane des plus modernes.
Selon le blog spécialisé Oryxspioenkop.com, les talibans auraient au total mis la main sur 2082 Humvee, une cinquantaine de canons ou mortiers lourds, 60 chars légers, 12 chars lourds, deux avions, 24 hélicoptères, dont 4 "Black Hawk" et 8 MD 530F ainsi que sept drones Boeing ScanEagle.
Cet inventaire a été établi à partir d'images et de vidéos diffusées par les médias et les talibans.
"Par conséquent, le nombre d'avions capturés est sans aucun doute plus élevé", indique Oryxspioenko en précisant que "tous les aéronefs ne sont pas opérationnels. Le nombre d'avions capturés par les talibans ne se traduit donc pas par une flotte opérationnelle".
C'est le cas des d'hélicoptères russes Mi-17 Hip achetés par les Etats-Unis parce que moins cher et plus facile à piloter que les UH-60 Black Hawk. L'armée afghane en aurait une centaine dévoile un article du Guardian.
Mais "cette flotte nécessite des réparations, de l'entretien et un approvisionnement en pièces détachées. Une grande partie de la flotte pourrait déjà être clouée au sol", précise Alexander Mikheev, directeur général de Rosoboronexport, à l'agence de presse Interfax.
Les Afghans disposent toutefois des compétences nécessaires pour piloter et entretenir les aéronefs abandonnés. Pour préparer leur départ, les Américains ont formé des spécialistes dans les différents domaines. Entre 2015 et 2020, une unité de formation de l'US Air Force a formé pilotes et techniciens sur les A-29 Tucano. Désormais autonomes, ils ont pris le relais pour former à leur tour, indique le site américain Military.com.
1000 milliards de dollars
Le matériel n'est pas si vétuste qu'on peut le penser. Dans son dernier rapport qui fait le bilan sur 20 ans de présence en Afghanistan, le Sigar précise que chaque année, un tiers du matériel était remplacé.
Autant d'éléments qui donnent une idée de la complexité d'évaluer avec précision les dépenses américaines en deux décennies. Depuis l'annonce du retrait des troupes américaines, beaucoup tentent de savoir combien la présence américaine a couté. Comme le rapport Le Figaro, le Département américain de la Défense évalue à 778 milliards de dollars les dépenses militaires engagées entre octobre 2001 et septembre 2019.
SUR LE MÊME SUJET
La Russie va livrer armes et hélicoptères aux pays frontaliers de l'Afghanistan
Dans une étude réalisée en 2019, le Watson Institute de la Brown University de Rhode Island estime que l'intervention militaire américaine a au total couté 978 milliards de dollars, un chiffre plus proche des 1000 milliards dévoilés par Joe Biden le 16 août. Un montant colossal qui a servi a aussi permis de faire tourner l'industrie américaine de la défense, quoi qu'il en coûte.
Pascal Samama
https://twitter.com/PascalSamama
Pascal Samama Journaliste BFM Éco

Governments and private investors are increasingly becoming aware of the marketing power and the importance of seismic safety of old cores of their cities. Hereby the interest in preserving the original look and often even the original, but improved construction of the buildings becomes imperative and a demanding task for engineers and project managers. The main goal of project management is controlling the outcome of a project through control of elements like quality of the final product, costs and time, whereas practice shows that these types of projects very often overrun cost and time limits. Therefore these are the main research questions: Can construction projects on strengthening and preserving existing buildings be successfully governed with existing risk management tools? If not, how can we improve the existing risk management tools? In this paper development of a new risk breakdown structure for construction projects on existing and historical buildings is presented. The risk breakdown structure is developed based on previous project experiences and in collaboration with a series of experts.

Critique #1 By Aaron Brown Most people don't think about risk. If it's not raining, they don't carry umbrellas. They get in their cars without walking around to check the tires and for hidden obstructions. When things run smoothly, they focus attention elsewhere. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," is their motto. When things do go wrong, it's "who could have imagined…?" Other people always carry umbrellas, don't drive for fear of accidents and worry no matter how well things are going. They're not thinking about risk either. They're merely obsessing about bad things. In the movie For Love of the Game, actor J. K. Simmons's character chides actor Kevin Costner's character for being late. Kevin's character responds, "In 19 years, have I ever not showed?" J. K.'s character has the unarguable answer of worrywarts, "Well, that's true of everyone until the first time they don't show." The first kind of person sometimes slips into the risk management profession and manages the appearance of risk. The second kind sometimes slips in and minimizes risk. But both are opposed to the goals of the profession: transparent reporting of risk and aggressive support for calculated risk taking. Reasoning from Big and Small We have two methods for investigating risk. First is analysis of historical disasters: market crashes, hedge fund blowups, financial institution scandals, etc. Second is analysis of common events-for example, using the distribution of daily price movements to predict future movements. Nassim Taleb's new book, The Black Swan, attacks both of these methods. Taleb argues that historical analysis of rare events is poisoned by the narrative fallacy and that reasoning from everyday experience is an inverse problem. Risk managers rely on ineffective and illogical techniques.That's one of the main claims Nassim Nicholas Taleb makes in his controversial new book, The Black Swan. Specifically,Taleb argues that quants focus on statistical projection from common, ordinary events when unexpected, low-probabilty, high-impact events are what determine most profit and loss. He claims that when quants do consider the tails of the distribution, they overestimate the chance of past shocks repeating and ignore the possibility of unprecedented events. Do his criticisms make sense or are they off base? The following multifaceted article comprises a pair of book reviews (one authored by Aaron Brown and another written by Philippe Jorion), an in-depth interview with Mr.Taleb and a note from the author that further explains his views on risk management.

The work on which this paper is based is important because it sheds light on a tourist’s emotional experiences on holiday, which are central to increase our understanding of tourist behaviour. The importance of investigating perceptions of travel risks has been recognized in a number of different factors, such as psychology, sociology, criminology and marketing. It is often assumed that perceptions of safety and security may influence an individual’s destination choice. The study found that most holidaymakers perceive earthquakes, tsunamis, SARS, terrorist activities and swine flu as risks. The results of the study suggest that safety, peace and stability are major concerns for tourists while choosing their travel destinations.

Este capítulo faz uma abordagem sobre os efeitos da radiação eletromagnética na saúde humana, ressaltando a importância da Geografia, em especial da Geografia da Saúde, e da componente territorial neste tipo de análise. Trata-se de um enfoque que não tem sido realizado pelos geógrafos portugueses e também tem pouca

The WCRP International Programme (World Climate Research Programme) (www.wcrp-climate.org) was created in 1980 under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and of the International Council for Science (ICSU). Since 1993 it has also been sponsored by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) belonging to UNESCO. The WCRP’s two main objectives involve determining to what degree climate can be predicted and to what extent human activity can influence it. The Spanish Committee of the World Climate Research Programme depends
institutionally upon the Secretariat of State for Research, Development and Innovation of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and since 2010 it avails of the physical support of the Spanish Climatology Association (AEC)
(www.aeclim.org).
The Spanish Committee comprises Javier Martín-Vide, as
Chairperson, Mª José Estrela as secretary and Joaquín Meliá, Francisco Valero, José Mª Cuadrat, José Antonio Guijarro, Carlos García-Legaz and Pablo Fernández de Arróyabe as committee members