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2024 United States presidential election in Maine

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2024 United States presidential election in Maine

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 3 1
Popular vote 435,652 377,977
Percentage 52.40% 45.46%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] The state uses ranked-choice voting.

Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020.

Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election.

Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 60,018 82.8% 24
Dean Phillips 4,623 6.4%
Other candidates 480 0.7%
Blank ballots 7,359 10.2%
Total: 72,480 100% 24 8 32

Republican primary

[edit]

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Republican primary, March 5, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 79,034 71.92% 20 0 20
Nikki Haley 27,912 25.40% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 1,191 1.08% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 440 0.40% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 299 0.27% 0 0 0
Blank ballots 1,022 0.93% 0 0 0
Total: 109,898 100.00% 20 0 20


Attempted disqualification of Trump

[edit]

Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary.[4] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[5] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court,[6] and the appeal was dismissed on January 24.[7] On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson[8] that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not.[9] The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.[10]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking (1st) Ranking (2nd) Ranking (statewide) As of
The Economist[11] Safe D Likely R Likely D September 5, 2024
Cook Political Report[12] Safe D Likely R Likely D August 27, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] Safe D Likely R Safe D November 4, 2024
CNalysis[14] Safe D Very Likely R Solid D November 4, 2024
538[15] Safe D Likely R Likely D July 15, 2024
CNN[16] Safe D Lean R Safe D January 14, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D Likely R Likely D June 29, 2023
Inside Elections[18] Safe D Lean R Likely D April 26, 2023
NBC News[19] Safe D Likely R Likely D October 6, 2024
YouGov[20] Safe D Tossup Safe D November 1, 2024
Split Ticket[21] Safe D Likely R Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 58% 41% 1%
University of New Hampshire[23] July 23–25, 2024 1,445 (LV) ± 2.6% 54% 45% 1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[24] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,485 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 41% 1% 1% 1% 4%[b]
SurveyUSA[25][A] October 24–29, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 43% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Pan Atlantic Research[26] September 5–15, 2024 812 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 41% 1% 1% 1% 6%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 55% 38% 2% 0% 1% 1% 3%
University of New Hampshire[23] July 23–25, 2024 1,445 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 40% 4% 1% 1% 1% 5%[b]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[27][B] April 13–21, 2024 350 (LV) 45% 46% 9%
Pan Atlantic Research[28] February 6–14, 2024 791 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 38% 30%[c]
Digital Research[29] October 3 – November 2, 2023 614 (RV) ± 3.9% 36% 35% 29%[d]
Emerson College[30] September 19–20, 2022 1,164 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 40% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Digital Research[31] April 8–30, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 1 40% 41% 10% 1% 6% 2%
2 41% 41% 11% 1% 6% Elim
3 41% 42% 11% Elim 6% Elim
4 42% 43% 15% Elim Elim Elim
5 51% 49% Elim Elim Elim Elim
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[27][B] April 13–21, 2024 350 (LV) 35% 53% 12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[27][B] April 13–21, 2024 350 (LV) 43% 37% 20%


Maine's 1st congressional district

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research[26] September 5–15, 2024 414 (LV) 58% 32% 10%
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 476 (LV) 64% 36%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[24] October 29 – November 2, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 60% 36% 0% 1% 1% 2%[b]
SurveyUSA[25][A] October 24–29, 2024 482 (LV) 58% 37% 1% 1% 0% 3%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 476 (LV) 62% 33% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2%[b]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research[28] February 6–14, 2024 791 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 31% 31%[e]
Digital Research[29] October 3 – November 2, 2023 307 (RV) 43% 27% 30%


Maine's 2nd congressional district

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Axis Research[32][C] October 17–20, 2024 411 (LV) ± 4.8% 50% 41% 8%[f]
Pan Atlantic Research[26] September 5–15, 2024 398 (LV) 49% 42% 9%
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 432 (LV) 47% 52% 1%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[24] October 29 – November 2, 2024 683 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 44% 1% 1% 1% 5%[b]
SurveyUSA[25][A] October 24–29, 2024 484 (LV) 49% 44% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 432 (LV) 44% 49% 2% 0% 1% 1% 3%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research[28] February 6–14, 2024 791 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 25% 30%[g]
Digital Research[29] October 3 – November 2, 2023 307 (RV) 42% 28% 30%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Maine[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic 435,652 52.40% −0.69%
Republican 377,977 45.46% +1.44%
Green 8,967 1.08% +0.08%
Libertarian 5,286 0.64% −1.09%
Justice For All 2,912 0.35% N/A
Write-in 581 0.07% +0.06%
Total votes 831,375 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Androscoggin 27,019 45.91% 30,605 52.01% 1,223 2.08% -3,586 -6.10% 58,847
Aroostook 12,900 36.18% 22,246 62.40% 507 1.42% -9,346 -26.22% 35,653
Cumberland 127,971 66.42% 59,964 31.12% 4,721 2.46% 68,007 35.30% 192,656
Franklin 7,990 44.80% 9,459 53.03% 387 2.17% -1,469 -8.23% 17,836
Hancock 19,817 54.66% 15,551 42.90% 885 2.44% 4,266 11.76% 36,253
Kennebec 34,585 47.45% 36,589 50.20% 1,712 2.35% -2,004 -2.75% 72,886
Knox 15,076 58.22% 10,262 39.63% 555 2.15% 4,814 18.59% 25,893
Lincoln 13,110 54.62% 10,409 43.37% 484 2.01% 2,701 11.25% 24,003
Oxford 14,765 42.69% 19,228 55.59% 597 1.72% -4,463 -12.90% 34,590
Penobscot 37,945 43.58% 47,438 54.48% 1,690 1.94% -9,493 -10.90% 87,073
Piscataquis 3,510 34.39% 6,487 63.57% 208 2.04% -2,977 -29.18% 10,205
Sagadahoc 13,982 57.17% 9,917 40.55% 557 2.28% 4,065 16.62% 24,456
Somerset 10,134 35.63% 17,826 62.68% 481 1.69% -7,692 -27.05% 28,441
Waldo 12,661 50.38% 11,815 47.02% 654 2.60% 846 3.36% 25,130
Washington 6,763 37.48% 11,001 60.96% 282 1.56% -4,238 -23.48% 18,046
York 71,813 54.22% 58,054 43.83% 2,585 1.95% 13,759 10.39% 132,452
Total 435,652 52.40% 377,977 45.46% 17,746 2.14% 57,675 6.94% 831,375

Analysis

[edit]

A sparsely populated state in New England, Maine is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be moderately blue.

All but two counties swung Republican compared to 2020, and Trump flipped Kennebec County, which he had won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020.[34][35]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b c d e "Another Candidate" with 1%
  3. ^ "Another Candidate" with 21%
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 10%
  5. ^ "Another Candidate" with 23%
  6. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  7. ^ "Another Candidate" with 19%
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bangor Daily News & FairVote
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the NRCC

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  3. ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  4. ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  5. ^ Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  6. ^ "Maine secretary of state appeals superior court ruling in Trump ballot case". newscentermaine.com. January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  7. ^ Donald J. Trump v. Secretary of State et al., 2024 ME 5
  8. ^ 601 U.S. 100 (2024)
  9. ^ "Supreme Court rules states can't kick Trump off the ballot". NBC News. March 4, 2024. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  10. ^ Davis, Emma. "Sec. Bellows withdraws decision to disqualify Trump from ballot following U.S. Supreme Court ruling". Maine Morning Star. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  11. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
  13. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
  14. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
  15. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
  16. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
  17. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
  18. ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
  19. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  20. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  21. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  22. ^ a b c d e f McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (August 21, 2024). "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  23. ^ a b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (July 25, 2024). "Harris Holds Small Lead Over Trump in Maine After Biden Withdraws From Race". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  24. ^ a b c McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Leads Statewide in Maine but Trump Has Small Lead in CD2". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  25. ^ a b c Kobin, Billy (November 1, 2024). "New poll finds Jared Golden and Donald Trump leading Maine's 2nd District". Bangor Daily News.
  26. ^ a b c Cover, Susan (September 18, 2024). "New Maine polls shows Harris leading Trump in race for president". Spectrum News.
  27. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c "The 63rd Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll - February 2024" (PDF). Pan Atlantic Research. February 26, 2024.
  29. ^ a b c Burnett, Traverse (January 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Fall 2023" (PDF).
  30. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 23, 2022). "Maine Poll: Mills Leads LePage by 12; Majority of Voters Concerned Over Lobsters on Unsustainable Seafood "Red List"". Emerson Polling.
  31. ^ Fay, Kevin (June 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Spring 2024" (PDF).
  32. ^ "State Of The Race Maine CD-2". Axis Research. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  33. ^ "U.S. President by County/Town". Maine.gov. December 5, 2024. Retrieved December 22, 2024.
  34. ^ "Maine Election Results". bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  35. ^ "Maine Election Results". bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 13, 2024.