As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
People have a misimpression regarding how world peak oil can be expected to behave. The world economy has continued to grow, but now it is beginning to move in the direction of contraction due to an inadequate supply of crude oil. In fact, it is not just an inadequate crude oil supply, but also an inadequate supply of coal (per person) and an inadequate supply of uranium.
We know that when a boat changes direction, this causes turbulence in the water. This is similar to the problems we are currently seeing in the world economy. Physics dictates that the economy needs to shrink in size to match its energy resources, but no country wants to be a part of this shrinkage. This indirectly leads to major changes in elected leadership and to increased interest in war-like behavior. Strangely enough, it also seems to lead to higher long-term interest rates, as well.
In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall.
[1] I expect that the general trend in 2025 will be toward world recession.
With less oil (and coal and uranium) relative to population, the world can be expected to produce fewer goods and services per person. In some sense, people will generally become poorer. For example, fewer people will be able to afford new cars or new homes.
This trend toward lower purchasing-power tends to be concentrated in certain groups such as young people, farmers, and recent immigrants. As a result, older people who are well-off or firmly established may be able to mostly ignore this issue.
While the shift toward a poorer world has partially been hidden, it has been a huge factor in allowing Donald Trump to be voted back into power. Major shifts in leadership are taking place elsewhere, as well, as an increasing share of citizens become unhappy with the current situation.
[2] Many governments will try to hide recessionary tendencies by issuing more debt to stimulate their economies.
In the past, adding debt was found to be effective way of stimulating the world economy because energy supplies supporting the world economy were not seriously constrained. It was possible to add new energy supplies, quite inexpensively. The combination of additional inexpensive energy supplies and additional “demand” (provided by the added debt) allowed the total quantity of goods and services produced to be increased. Once energy supplies started to become seriously constrained (about 2023), this technique started to work far less well. If energy production is constrained, the likely impact of added debt will be added inflation.
The problem is that if added government debt doesn’t really add inexpensive energy, it will instead create more purchasing power relative to the same number, or a smaller number, of finished goods and services available. I believe that in 2025, we are heading into a situation where ramping up governmental debt will mostly lead to inflation in the cost of finished goods and services.
[3] Energy prices are likely to remain too low for fossil fuel and uranium producers to raise investments from their current low levels.
Recession and low prices tend to go together. While there may be occasional spikes in oil and other energy prices, 2025 is likely to bring oil and other energy prices that are, on average, no higher than those of 2024, adjusted for the overall increase in prices due to inflation. With generally low prices, producers will cut back on new investment. This will cause production to fall further.
[4] I expect “gluts” of many energy-related items in 2025.
Gluts are related to recession and low prices for producers. The underlying problem is that a significant share of the population finds that finished goods, made with energy products and investment at current interest rates, are too expensive to buy.
Even farmers are affected by low prices, just as they were back at the time of the Great Depression. We can think of food as an energy product that is eaten by people. Farmers find that their return on farm investment is too low, and that their implied wages are low. Low income for farmers around the world feeds back through the system as low buying power for new farm equipment, and for buying goods and services in general.
In 2025, I expect there will be a glut of crude oil due to a lack of purchasing power of many poor people around the world. My forecast is similar to the forecast of the IEA that predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025. Also, a December 2024 article in mining.com says, “A glut of coal in China is set to push falling prices even lower.”
Even wind turbines and solar panels can reach an oversupply point. According to one article, number of Chine solar panel builders seems to be far too high for world demand, leading to a potential shake out. As the share of wind and solar power added to the electric grid increases, the frequency of low or negative payment for wholesale electric power increases. This makes adding more wind turbines and solar panels problematic, after a certain point. We don’t yet have a cost-effective way of storing intermittent electricity for months on end. This seems to be part of the reason why there recently were no bidders for producing more offshore wind power in Denmark.
[5] I expect long-term interest rates to remain high. This will be a problem for new investments of all kinds and for governmental borrowing.
In Section 2 of this post, I tried to explain that a peak-oil impact is likely to be inflation. This occurs because ramping up debt to try to stimulate the economy no longer works to get additional cheap energy products from the ground. Instead of getting as many finished goods and services as hoped for, the added debt tends to produce inflation instead.
I believe that we are reaching a stage of fossil-fuel depletion where it is becoming increasingly difficult to ramp up production, even with added investment. Because of the added debt added in an attempt to work around depletion, inflation in the price of finished goods and services can be expected. Investors are beginning to see long-term inflation as a likely problem. As a result, they are starting to demand higher long-term interest rates to compensate for the expected decrease in buying power.
Figure 2 shows that US long-term interest rates have varied widely. There was a period of generally dropping long-term interest rates from 1981 to 2020. Starting in late 2020, interest rates began to rise; in 2023 and 2024 they have been in the 4% to 5% range. These relatively high rates are occurring because lenders are demanding higher long-term interest rates in response to higher inflation rates.
Because of inflationary pressures, I expect that long-term interest rates will tend to stay at today’s high level in 2025; they may even rise further. These continued high interest rates will become a problem for many families wanting to purchase a home because US home mortgage rates rise and fall with US 10-year interest rates. Often families are faced with both high home prices and high interest rates. This combination makes mortgage costs a problem for many families.
Governments are also adversely affected. They tend to hold large amounts of debt that they have accumulated over a period or years. Up until 2020, much of this added debt often was at a very low interest rate. As more long-term debt at higher interest rates is added, annual interest rate payments tend to rise rapidly. This can cause a need to raise taxes. Japan, especially, would be affected by higher interest rates because of its high level of government debt, relative to GDP.
Higher interest rates will also raise costs for citizens trying to finance the purchase of homes, and for investors wanting to build wind turbines or solar panels. In fact, investment in any kind of factory, pipelines, or electricity transmission will tend to become more expensive.
In a sense, we seem to be seeing the peak oil problem shifting in a way that affects interest rates and the economy in general. Either higher interest rates or higher oil prices will tend to push the economy toward recession. We tend to look for rising prices to signal an oil supply problem, but perhaps that only works when there is excessive demand. If the problem is really inadequate oil supply, perhaps we should look for higher long-term interest rates, instead.
[6] Industry around the world is likely to be hit especially hard by recessionary tendencies.
Industry requires investment. Higher interest rates make new industrial investment more expensive. Industry is also a heavy user of energy products. Putting these observations together, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if new industrial investment is one of the first places to be cut back because of peak oil supply.
The original 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. The variables in this model were recently recalibrated in the article, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model.” Based on the detailed data given in the endnotes to the article, I calculated the expected industrialization per capita shown in Figure 3.
Based on Figure 3, this model shows that industrialization per person reached a peak in 2017. Peak industrialization (total, not per capita) occurred in 2018, which coincides with peak crude oil extraction (not per capita).
The model seems to suggest that after an inflection point in 2023 (that is 2024 and after), industrialization will start to fall more steeply. The model shows a decrease in production per capita of 4.1% in 2024 and of 5.3% in 2025. Such decreases would push the world economy toward recession.
The model suggests that people, on average, are getting poorer in terms of the quantity of goods and services they can afford to buy. New cars, motorcycles, and homes are becoming less affordable. Heavily industrialized countries, such as China, South Korea, and Germany are likely to be especially affected by headwinds to industrialization. I expect that the economic problems in these countries will continue and are likely to worsen in 2025.
[7] The US has tried to isolate itself from this nearly worldwide recession. I expect that during 2025, the US will increasingly slip into recession, as well.
There are several reasons for this belief:
(a) The US is heavily dependent upon imports of raw material. China is restricting exports of critical minerals used by the US. This will make it very difficult or impossible to ramp up high tech industries as planned.
(b) The US is heavily dependent on Russia for supplies of enriched uranium. Any plan for added nuclear electricity needs to consider where the uranium to power these plants will come from. It also needs to consider how this uranium will be enriched to the required concentration of uranium-235.
(c) If the US can ramp up crude oil and natural gas production, this can perhaps counter this trend toward US and world recession. Unfortunately, recent US oil supply has not been ramping up; instead its production has been fairly flat. Natural gas production has actually been lower since February 2024. Plans have been made to rapidly ramp up US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but these plans cannot work if the US natural gas supply is already decreasing.
(d) The US government has had an advantage in borrowing because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, the US is, in some sense, the first borrower, pulling the rest of the world along. The US, by making its short term interest rates higher than those of many other countries, was able to largely escape recession 2023 and 2024. Additional investment was attracted to the US by these higher interest rates. But the US cannot follow this strategy indefinitely. For one thing, a high US dollar handicaps exports. For another, interest costs on government debt become burdensome.
(e) Donald Trump has plans to close inefficient parts of government. These changes, if enacted, will reduce “demand” within the economy because workers in these sectors will lose their jobs. Over the longer term, these changes might be beneficial, but over the short term, they are likely to be recessionary.
(f) It is difficult for the US to do much better than the rest of the world. If the rest of the world is in recession, the US will tend to head in that direction, as well.
[8] I expect more conflict in 2025, but today’s wars will not look much like World War I or World War II.
Today, not many countries are able to build huge fleets of fighter airplanes. Even building drones and bombs seems to require supply lines that extend around the world. So, instead, wars are being fought in non-military ways, such as with sanctions and tariffs.
I expect that this trend away from direct military conflict will continue, with more novel approaches such as internet interference and stealth damage to infrastructure taking place instead.
I do not expect that nuclear bombs will be used, even when there is direct conflict between powerful adversaries. For one thing, uranium in these bombs is needed for other purposes. For another, there is too much chance of retaliation.
[9] I expect many types of capital gains will be low in 2025.
The situation we are facing now is the opposite of the drop in long-term interest rates observed between 1981 and 2020, in Figure (2), above. This historical drop in interest rates made it possible for businesses to more easily finance new investments. It also made it possible for individual citizens to be able to afford more homes and cars. It should not be surprising that this period has been a time of rising stock market prices, especially in the United States.
The world’s economic problem is that it no longer has the tailwind of falling long-term interest rates. Instead, rising long-term interest rates are becoming a headwind. Home prices are un-affordably high for most potential buyers at today’s interest rates. A similar problem faces those hoping to purchase agricultural equipment and farmland at today’s high prices and high interest rates.
We should not be surprised if home and farm prices stabilize and begin to fall. Prices of shares of stock are likely to encounter similar headwinds. Prices of derivative investments may perform even worse than the shares themselves.
Recently, a great deal of the strength of the US market has been in a few stocks. Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to very quickly provide a lot of benefit to the stock market as a whole for this to change. I cannot imagine this happening. With the US slipping toward recession, I expect that the US stock market will at best plateau in 2025.
[10] With less energy available and higher interest rates on government debt, I expect to see more government organizations disbanding.
It takes energy, directly and indirectly, to operate any kind of governmental organization. Eliminating governmental organizations is one way of saving energy. This is what happened when the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. I would think that parallel kinds of changes could start happening in the next few years, in many parts of the world.
At some time, perhaps as soon as 2025, the European Union could collapse. If things are going badly for many member countries, they will be less willing to support the European Union with their tax revenues. Other organizations that seem like they could be in peril include NATO and the World Trade Organization.
In some ways, such shrinkage would be in parallel with Trump’s plan for eliminating unnecessary governmental organizations within the United States. All these organizations require energy; cutting their number would go some way toward reducing crude oil and other energy consumption.
[11] It is possible that the world economy will eventually get itself out of its apparent trend toward recession, but I am afraid this will happen long after 2025.
We know that the world economy tends to operate in cycles. We would like to believe that the apparent current down-cycle is just temporary, but we can’t know this for sure. Physics tells us that we need energy supplies of the right kind for any action that contributes to GDP. Running short of energy supplies is therefore a very worrisome condition.
We also know that there are major inefficiencies in current approaches. For example, oil extraction leaves much of the oil resource in place. In theory, AI could greatly improve extraction techniques.
We also know that uranium consumption is terribly inefficient. M. King Hubbert thought that nuclear energy using uranium had amazing potential, but most of this potential remains untapped. Perhaps AI could help in this regard, also. If nothing else, perhaps recycling spent fuel could be made less expensive and problematic.
We can’t know what lies ahead. There may be a “religious” ending to our current predicament that we are discounting that is actually the “right story.” Or there may be a “technofix” solution that allows us to avert collapse or catastrophe. But for now, how the current down-cycle will end remains a major cause for concern.
Excerpt from ” Tumbling Tide ” author Peter Goodchild .
” As society collapses we will see the rise of ” the four a C’s ” . 1] Crime .2] Cults . 3 ] Crazies , these will be followed by a final and more general element that is 4] Chaos , which results in the presavive sense that ” nothing works anymore ” . Think of this as the unfortunate part of the ex Soviet Union . ”
Wow , we can see this now . Trump is crazy to want Canada , Panama Canal , Greenland etc . The lunatics are incharge of the asylum . The last sentence reminded me of Dimitry Orlov ‘s work .
George Kaplan , my go to guy for GOM matters .
” I have been looking at the Baker Hughes active drilling rig numbers and they show quite a marked (and accelerating) drop in international (i.e. non USA or Canada) oil rigs since April last year. All continents are affected but the Middle East might show slightly the largest proportional fall. This would support an expected rising drop in global production from the second half of 2025 onwards.
Active oil rigs peaked at 1080 in mid 2014 when prices were high and the industry went a bit bonkers, they dropped to the 830s just before the Covid crash then hit a low of 490 at the end of 2020 before recovering to 742 last April, but have now fallen to 671 (dropping about 10 rigs a month but steepening). The numbers don’t include Iran or former USSR states but I would expect these to be at least as bad, if not worse, as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have few oil development opportunities left and sanctions are hitting Russia and Iran. The numbers don’t differentiate between development and exploration wells but exploration has been slowly fading for over a decade and would not explain this fall. Oil price may play a part – the way contracts work the price at least six months to a year before would be the most influential and prices were falling from over 90 dollars in September 2023, but usually large oil companies, which would be responsible for most of these rigs, take a longer view. With discovered fields getting smaller wells are gradually getting less productive, although moving to deeper water complicates things, so to some extent more rigs would be needed to maintain production but it’s difficult to see the effect clearly because of the long time lags during development projects.
Active international gas rigs have been constant over 2024 at around 190.”
The music is playing but the party is over .
Your findings sound disturbing, but not really surprising. I am afraid the world economy is headed downward.
Some months back, I read an article concerning the use of thorium for production of light water reactor fuel. The idea is to blend thorium oxide with high assay low enriched uranium. The HALEU is 20% enriched with 235U. One part HALEU can be blended with 4 parts thorium to produce a fuel that is 4% 235U, 16% 238U and 80% 232Th.
The advantage that this provides is that 232Th absorbs neutrons during irradiation. This transmutes into 233U, which is fissile. The 233U releases more neutrons on average during thermal fission, than does 235U or 239Pu. This boosts the conversion ratio of the reactor, allowing more energy to be produced from each input mass of 235U. This can be achieved in existing reactors, without need for reprocessing.
I have no data on the extent to which this reduces reactor uranium fuel requirements. An LWR using zoned 233U-232Th fuel can achieve a unity breeding ratio. If mixed uranium thorium fuel can reduce 235U demand by 30%, it would buy a great deal of time for development of new reactor technologies and fuel sources.
We have a long ways to go on this.
We don’t have HALEU either, in the US.
In fact, the US doesn’t have its own thorium production, to any extent, and it is not yet an internationally traded commodity.
This post is up on zero hedge now under a different name, with added bullets at the beginning:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/end-economic-growth-energy-shortages-drive-global-downturn
The End Of Economic Growth: Energy Shortages Drive Global Downturn
Without clicking on that link, the comments there will show what a little consciousness (we need sound money!) will make you as much of an idiot as no consciousness (I vaxx every time a new one comes out!).
Quite an in-depth analysis of the China economy over the past several years.
E.g. a very big drop in insurance industry jobs.
https://youtu.be/DZFPwYTxDz4?si=C-20YGmm1ojh-HCJ
This kind of video makes me believe that job loss really is a huge issue in China. It probably is not obvious to the casual observer in Beijing, but it exists.
I was going to post this same YouTube video from China Observer.
Scroll forward to 13:55 where there is an emerging “industry” of “pretending to work.” Unemployed middle age 35+ people sign in and sit all day pretending they have jobs. They get a lunch and computer desk and spend 9 to 5 so as to make their families think they are still going to work. When does the money run out?
Sadly, this reminds me of a favorite scene from Married with Children.
Do they get a daily injection to allow them to more reliably simulate job stress?
years ago i was trying to point out that construction forever was a vert odd way to run an economy
I would like to know what do you think in US about Trump willing to buy ‘dänisch Grønland’ and annex Canada.
Without excluding the use of force.
Am I forgetting anything else?
I say, let’s go for it, but only if Greenland has resources. Denmark has 6 million people … what are they going to do about it?
If the Greenland population doesn’t like the idea, then we can build 1 small city in Greenland, making us the majority of the population, and declare independence from Denmark!
If there is global warming, maybe Greenland will become a new population center!
Greenland used to be green until about 1360, and then cooling kicked in.
MGGA
Make Greenland Green again!
Right!
What do you think it would do to the reputation of the US on the global stage, if it used military force to sieze another country’s territory?
The US would come up with some excuse. To help the country make full use of its resources, perhaps. Or something more original.
This is what color revolutions are for. “It wasn’t us.” Or, “Look over there, Russia is taking over Ukraine. They started it.” Finally, we don’t have to annex it officially for a while, we can just start building stuff there and then, like how China grew, “Hey look, we’re the majority, this has always been China”.
You have some good approaches.
i can’t quite make it scan, but:
spppringtime for Trump and the USAaaaaaa
Winter for Denmark and Canadaaaaaa
(Its always winter in Greenland anyway)
“the reputation of the US”
Completely trash it. Not to mention stupid.
On the other hand, perhaps this is the way to intimidate Putin and end the Ukraine war, by demonstrating being crazier.
Also, regarding Canada – we will take it when resource depletion really bites. I don’t see a reason to tell them yet, though, unless they try to export our resources to China at scale.
You will have to clear our winter hardened chain link fence first! And if you do, well, you will be met with vicious black labs on the other side.
Stop! Stop petting the dogs!! Stop that!
Okay then, well we wont be inviting you in for tea, but … ah hell… there’s a case of beer and a bottle of whisky out back. Something to do.
🙂
Cheaper than invading Russia to acquire natural resources, with or without UKR and NATO proxies.
Good point!
The other topic of interest, which I have also not seen discussed here, is Trump’s geopolitical philosophy of Fortress America. Clearly at least a chunk of the elites is reluctantly lining behind him, for lack of better alternatives, and they may even keep the financial system afloat on his behalf for a while. Possible outcomes for the next presidency only:
1) annexation of canada
2) annexation of greenland
3) invasion of mexico to fight the war on drugs
4) increased military, intelligence and economic pressure on south america.
2) and 4) seem likely. the rest is for the vance first term maybe. China and Russia would gain a lot by propping up Venezuela militarily. The US Ukraine if you wish.
I mentioned 1 and 2 below, no replies, but my main point was that Trump’s statements indicate the Trump team is very aware of the resource problems and that those problems have been exacerbated by failures in Ukraine and Russia.
What are you talking about failures? The motive for the u.s was to use weapons against Russia and figure out their capabilities its been a win for the war mongers in Amurica!
What about exiting NATO? Or at least crippling it for good.
I don’t see Trump being able to enact foreign policy changes of this order without approval of the permanent bureaucracy. So, I assume a Russian victory in Ukraine would do more to delegitimize NATO than anything Trump has planned.
No refunds!
I am up late tonight because one of the LA fires, Hurst, is burning about a mile from where I live. More or less ready to bug out. We may be OK because the wind is blowing the fire west and we are somewhat south of the fire. People on the west of I5 have been warned. If the fire jumps the freeway, it may get as big as the Palisades fire. The wind will just about blow you over, it has been clocked at nearly 100 mph.
Thinking about you Keith
stay safe
Good luck, Keith!
Good luck
Sorry to hear this. Is there a way you can drive to safety?
Quite a few of you may have noticed this news item:
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/sam-altman-openai-losing-money-shares-2025-agentic-ai-outlook
The problem isn’t limited to AI, like ChatGPT; it’s a broader, systemic issue tied to the escalating energy crisis, which deepens with each passing day. At its core, the challenge is not merely about finding more energy sources but addressing the rising cost of energy. This issue becomes even more critical because our production systems are fundamentally reliant on low-cost, high-intensity energy consumption.
Across the board, similar challenges emerge. Economic policies such as growth fueled by low-interest rates, excessive borrowing, or stock market manipulation have merely served to mask these underlying issues. While we might temporarily choose to ignore the problem—driven by optimism bias—the harsh reality remains: there is no escape.
What are the insurance costs going to be? A trillion or more?
The world needs to start calculating how many people can be sustained in each nation or state with existing technology. Then we can talk about how to transition down to the number of people in each area. This including choosing a level of technology.
More planning less dreaming.
How large a society can the hydro of North West US support? Hydro Quebec? The hydro of NZ, of Norway? Three gorges? Japan?
What big hydro does Russia have?
Even hydro needs oil for maintenance. There needs to be digging out, after a while. Mechanical parts need to be replaced. Transmission lines are a headache to maintain. They need road access for trucks or else helicopters to help with downed lines.
I agree maintenance is needed. This is just a factor in computing how large a system can be supported.
In my life with people, when the topic comes up as far, “how large can be supported”, does not ever pertain to themselves, EVER…
They are always exempt…and will, if able,
find a way to be affected
this is why the elites look down on populace.
stupid, lazy, irrational and irresponsible.
it is really a simple mathematical question.
how much resources exist in what quantities for what period of times can be consumed by how many and should be distributed in what ways?
“existing technology.”
Do you expect technology to quit advancing?
No. We can recalculate as time and tech go on.
“We can recalculate”
It’s an OK idea, and might have worked several hundred years ago, but today the technology is changing much faster than human populations do from births and deaths.
Not to mention that one of the technologies could be a substantial increase in life span.
I can’t predict what life will be like in a dozen years, or even if there will be life. But I think it is safe to predict, given the current speed up of advances that things will be *very* different.
But more technology is like crawling farther out on the energy limb.
Good point!
Mostly it will stop. All they have came up with lately is AI and renewables. It will be worse than the Dark Ages, where over 5 centuries (500-1000AD) all they came up with was the water mill. at least in europe.
I spoke in one of my articles about the ends of empires. Contrary to what is commonly accepted, an empire does not desire technical progress. It often calls into question its internal balances and its acquired situations (especially by the richest). The end of the Roman Empire was caused by the technical advance taken by the barbarians/technical stagnation of the empire and the return to the local area notably unlocked technical progress. Current situation? Compare Russian and American weapons. There are no questions to be had. Most American weapons are 50 years out of date.
Happy New Year Gail.
I think soil depletion was a bigger factor. This is still apparent now, with the soil around Rome very much depleted.
Russia is and wants to be a big wheat exporter.
You are right. Inventors haven’t come up with much recently, except AI and renewables (wind turbines and solar panels). None of these work as well as hoped.
i cant think of any major invention that does not require motive power for its ongoing function.
——and if you need motive power, then you must have fuel
ed
ask keith if you can borrow his calculator—that is guaranteed to give you any result you want
“ask keith”
Did you mean to be that impolite?
Perhaps you don’t know, but it is major insult to imply an engineer would present any intentionally wrong math.
That’s right, Norm, we had enough of that when Fast Eddie ruled.
BTW, in Norm’s defense, he did not outright direct his comment at you, but the calculator itself.
Perhaps it should be checked out?
your calculator delivers ‘correct’ answers
you use them to arrive at the wrong conclusions
Ed,
Just look at the unjabbed %
UK – 10%
USA – 30%
See, it’s already been done Brah
“Humans are the disease, we are the cure” -Agent Smith
That’s almost certainly incorrect. The UK also appears to be at around 30%. You might like to read Prof. Norman Fenton’s blog ‘where are the numbers’.
The UK has a publicly funded health service. People used to trust the NHS, tending to encourage more to get jabbed. On the other hand, very few groups in the UK were forced to get it. After resistance from NHS staff, there was no mandate there.
The numbers are likely exaggerated. But you get the point right?
The leftovers are close to the carrying capacity of each western country.
🙂
This says USA 81% with at least one dose.
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/
Strangely, if one looks at the percent vaccinated within each ethnic group, it is below 80% in all groups, sometimes significantly so. So, it is impossible to end up with 81% as claimed … It seems like they crunched the numbers incorrectly.
There is a lot of information on this graphic by state and by age group as well as by ethnic group. I would suggest looking at this.
I don’t know how the authors put this together. For example, I doubt that small children were coded by ethnic group. They have low vaccination rates. Leaving them out would skew the results higher in the ethnic group calculation, producing the anomaly you notice.
One thing is clear. There seem to be an awfully lot of people who stopped with one dose.
I agree to this idea!
The problem is: The “technology” will not be there unless we need it. To search for “technology” means to go into that situation – not to plan it at the desk. “Technology” is developed by experiment in the field.
While you probably mean by “technology” some scifi stuff, which would allow us to build more cities and drive more cars and eat more junk food without all the bad consequences, I mean by “technology” a probable and teachable solution. How can I mill grains without a mill? How can I reduce abraison on the teeth?
This task could probably be solved, rolling two stones from granite against each other. Looking for a solution, we could do some research in how our ancestors did it – if we still have libraries and museums – or we can talk with a geologist and a dentist and we could perform some tests in a garage. We could look up, where granite is available and what simple tools to use to get a probable form. I dont wanna discuss the probility of growing grains in the future, it is just an example.
In the moment we have a group digging into the experiment and a supporting group outside of the experiment, we could develop things much faster than being thrown into new conditions after any cataclysmus.
When our econony fails, there will be no “technology” to produce food in large amounts, nor will there be “technology” to pack and transport it. Food must be produced locally by those, who consume the food. The most simple thing I can think of is keeping some sheep for wool, milk and meat. Grass and herbs grow everywhere!
We wont be able to grow enough sheep and deploy knowhow after a turning point. But we could do now!
All the world is becoming China.
The United States has decided to solve its intensifying economic problems in the tried-and-true way: by murder. In January of 2022, America’s Machiavellian strategic planning organization — the RAND Corporation — laid bare its directives to the State Department on how to plunder Germany and Europe. In a major document, “Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.,” it explained that
⫷“The present state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that it can function without financial and material support from external sources. The quantitative easing policy, which the Fed has resorted to regularly in recent years, as well as the uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdowns, have led to a sharp increase in the external debt and an increase in the dollar supply.
The continuing deterioration of the economic situation is highly likely to lead to a loss in the position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November 2022. The impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs.”⫸
We now see how the Biden adminstration has followed that plan. It has blown up the Nord Stream pipelines and forced Germany to throw many billions of Euros into America’s proxy war in Ukraine, enriching large numbers of criminals in the U.S. and Ukraine, and killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians. Thus America spreads democracy.
It’s not really the US though, is it? It’s certainly not the US people. Almost none of them want this sort of thing. They would rather be representative of a proud country they once had.
java wdym that is not the US. The US people pay taxes and support the system and demand a higher standard of living everyday and keep pooping out babies. Are you saying humans are irresponsible for their actions and rather have everything scapegoated on people making decisions and if you are a decision maker you get all the blame? If the decision makers lose power, when will the hoi polloi unite stand up, start an army and conquer territory for resources or deal with real issues? Every political structure exists because humans behave like children and want someone else to hold their hand and someone to blame…
Are you saying it is ok to be IGNORANT of the worlds’ affairs and to just demand SCIENTIFIC advancement of infinite material progress, and when it comes to benefiting yourself, if others are acting on your behalf for your benefit they are intrinsically evil for attempting to thermodynamically remove energy from other continents to keep this continent in dominance with open ports, interdependent relations, etc by funding warlords, starting coups and sabotaging other populations’ growth rates?
Can you tell me why the US public doesn’t do these jobs instead? maybe they have too low IQ, are too irresponsible and need evil sociopathic men to run the world and make hard decisions? if the public gets too disgruntled and they want muh jobs and muh resources, why don’t they just oust the evil men and self-organize? And if they self-organize and become the evil men themselves, how are you going to stop others from overtaking your position?
Have you considered why power must be wielded and why it must be excerised and why there needs to be at least some humans that take responsibility and action instead of saying it’s not the public? If the population is too lazy and stupid to learn about geopolitics, energy dynamics, demographic issues — is that population not a BURDEN to the people whom have to make evil decisions everyday such as wiping out a few tribes and steamrolling them to build infrastructure or whatever?
I was inferring that the US government, its three letter organisations and military have been captured entirely, and are no longer interested in what the needs of its supporting citizenry are.
So much for my attempts at being delightfully non-specific.
The EU has chosen to commit suic1de can’t blame the US for that.
Right. That’s why we need to take over Greenland and Canada. While I’m not sure about the practicality, if it could be pulled off, the raw materials could breathe some additional life into the US. What I find more interesting is that this says something about who Trump has advising him, what they’re thinking about – a fallback plan after not getting Ukrainian resources or plundering Russia.
Rand is claiming that “Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.,” is a fake report.
https://www.rand.org/news/press/2022/09/14.html
This is supposedly the report by Rand Corporation, issued on January 22, 2022. It seems to be a scanned in document.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220916122646/https://nyadagbladet.se/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/rand-corporation-ukraina-energikris.pdf
Yes, maybe it is true that it is a fake document.
The problem is that it has been precisely applied.
😀
How is the US economy stabilized by ruining Europe? Like killing a competitor for resources?
Lower material input prices. Lower global consumption rate of remaining resources. Not sure to what degree it’s successful, but one of the goals may have been to move German/European industry to the US. However, it turns out that at least some of that industry is relocating to China.
Fewer competitors for resources and for finished products could help the US at least a bit in a resource constrained world. Europe seems to have mostly exhausted its fossil fuel resources, except for coal beds under the North Sea. I suppose the US could, at some point, work on using those.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k82RwXqZHY8
CES Keynote by NVIDIA Jensen Huan.
It may give you the sense that NIVDIA has been systematically working for 30 years to make the compute needed for AI.
I think instead of building massive nuclear power plants for AI we will make and use better AI hardware and software. It may take another 30 years.
AI – 2025 is the year it Pops Out of the Box
– Two years ago, we had fuzzy AI generated images
– Today, we have full lifelike video, and viable movie scripts that write within seconds
– Data centres are popping up everywhere… powered by small nuclear reactors or hydro electric dams.
– Currently 4% of electricity use in US goes to data centres running AI; it will be 12% by 2028 (3-4 years from now)
– Every 2 years, the AI processing power will 100x of what it was
– Year 2: 100
– Year 4: 10000
– Year 6: 1000000
Today we have full motion movies that are physically correct, and formed with 3D models. AI passes the Bar, performs most accounting, etc. Software programmers need not bother for much longer. That is chilling.
Even if there is no further tech advancements in the processors, the next few years will bring unpleasant surprises, along with the total destruction of evidence.
What a mess, and that doesn’t even being to cover what the AI owners are really hoping to achieve.
Except they are not “powered by small nuclear reactors.” This is just wishful thinking. I understand that in the state of Georgia, they are mostly powered by imported electricity from out of state. A coal plant from Alabama is being kept open longer than originally planned, for this purpose.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/14/google-inks-deal-with-nuclear-company-as-data-center-power-demand-surges.html
There as so much talk about Google and other signing deals to buy nuclear generated energy. Microsoft has bought, or is attempting to buy, a full plant:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/constellation-inks-power-supply-deal-with-microsoft-2024-09-20/
From your previous post, it sounds like it might not be worth the effort. But then, MS is into pebble reactors…. so, perhaps this is just a way to experiment on lesser used chemicals somehow.
There’s no spare fuel for nuclear reactors. There’s no steel to make reactor vessels and piping. We don’t need more movies or software.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUeryhp8HSQ
Eric Schmidt ex CEO Google – AI happens next year (this year)
Its not about you or me. There is a much bigger prize at stake.
The plan may be to push up prices for other consumers of electricity by taking electricity from nuclear power plant first. Perhaps data centers can dial back their demand in very cold or hot weather, when demand tends to be highest.
>> the total destruction of evidence.
??
Evidence, unless you are physically able to hold it in your hand, just like journalism, has become a victim of technological advancement. AI makes it easy to tweak an image, or video, block of text, recording … or anything.
From this point forth, what will you ever be able to believe is genuine again?
I suspect that the future for many is where people will only care about what is in their immediate vicinity.
You have some good insights! It is our fossil fuel infrastructure that allows us to think that we can find the truth from leaders and others. But this ability disappears.
Imagine how many barrels of oil will be saved when Ai replaces 80 percent of the workers in the current service sector those workers will no longer commute technology is coming for all the jobs that can be Ai ‘Ed people will be staying home once they are no longer needed driving will be severely cut back,only essential workers will be driving .
and who–what–how will all these people get fed, clothed supported, while they are at home doing nothing?
just curious
Happy New Year Gail and thanks for the new post.
I note the gentle curve downwards in Figure 1 (excluding the dent caused by the 2020-2021 measures).
I also note that – following Art Berman – that a gallon does not , on average, contain quite as much energy now as a gallon used to do.
Nature’s shrinkflation you might say.
The issue of “a gallon does not, on average, contain quite as much energy now as a gallon used to” is especially an issue when looking at “liquids” production or consumption. But it also holds for US production of crude oil, because it is getting lighter and lighter. The US trades for heaver crude oil, so that our mix consumed doesn’t fall as fast.
3500 jobs gone as Mittal shutters South Africa plant .
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arcelormittal-close-south-africa-3-083151083.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmJlLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADKdygB_S1aLXm90UCsULydmbByYWcdUUGe4EDlyltjFawb4F63gh6UTKEE2S7sP-jQt9STl6AuSQF9gcpf_QNPRMwqB1oZczGNC58o7KM5s0a30yfER_6qVO8UsTs7txqOnkocwCxNk13e63UZ-SZfTCMOF1et0WicW1z5krlP2
Mittal is a steel making plant. It is a user of coal. South Africa is a coal exporter, but peak coal was back in 2014. Production is down. No wonder steel making is having a problem in South Africa.
Total energy consumption in South Africa reached a peak in 2019. Energy consumption per capita reached a peak in 2008, when I expect coal export prices were high. In fact, energy consumption per capita is down by more than 20% since 2008. The country is doing poorly, in general.
ALERT . I follow this site from several years to check for gas situation in EU . Today for the first time I find stock/ consumption ratio for all EU countries has become ‘ 0 ‘ . Something is not smelling good . I think the drawdown is fast because of the cold spell in EU and they want to hide this .
https://agsi.gie.eu/
I am afraid you may be right.
This is a different version of the hiding approach the US has been using. The US started talking about “All Liquids” years ago, to hide the fact that it was crude oil supply that was a problem.
Interesting, thx. How does the “full%” compare to what you’re used to seeing?
In the Netherlands we are down to 54% full.
Last year we still had 79% left on Jan 7
For the whole of Europe we are down to 69%. Last year Europe still had 84% of full left on Jan. 7
In the Netherlands the drawdown was exacerbated in november and december by using natural gas for electricity generation. We had to use fossil fuels to make up for the lack of wind and solar 🙁
Nevertheless; we still have enough natural gas left to make to april (spring). Filling up the storage in the summer-months will be more expensive than last year (inflation) and hopefully we can get enough from our suppliers/dealers.
% full is meaningless . At about 40% there are two problems
1. Gas is stored in depleted oil fields or coal mines / salt caverns . Minimum storage is required to avoid the collapse of the walls of the storage .
2. Just like we do not drive till the car tank is fully empty so is the same with gas storage . There needs to be a MOL ( Minimum Operating Level ) of gas in storage to allow for compression and pumping .
I had long ago posted a link on LNG logistics . Will try to locate it and re post .
Here we go . You will understand the problems .
https://thesaker.si/saker-archive/germanys-failing-stored-nat-gas-lng-experiment/index.html
This article explains the many complexities that go into trying to make LNG work. It tends to be a very high-priced product. It needs a whole lot of infrastructure, which has basically not been built in Germany. And the author says that there are not a huge number of LNG ships available for shipping it, either.
I would add that there is an assumption that the US can ramp up natural gas production. This is not clear–production is recently down, rather than up.
Temperatures across Germany predicted to hover around freezing for the next week, with -4 to -11 predicted for Munich this coming weekend.
Exposed .
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Races-to-Refill-as-Gas-Reserves-Dwindle.html
Make way for the billionaires and your new masters . Dimitry Orlov .
https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/3e0547a3-61b3-4501-932b-aa656df51de9
I really like the writing of Dmitry Orlov. I think he has great insights. He starts out pointing out how rich Trump’s cabinet members are, and asking, “Why would these people do the equivalent of driving their own automobile? Government service isn’t the way to get ahead.
He concludes:
Lots of people, including me, can see the fiscal cliff coming ahead. The fact that the US government is still together leads me to believe that the system will not fall apart immediately. Also, the fact that these people are in charge leads me to believe that, in the near term, the solution to all problems is more US debt, and keeping the US dominant in the world. This is what will tend to lead to more inflation and even hyperinflation.
Furthermore, if the economy is doing reasonably well, high interest rates tend to benefit the rich. Of course, high interest rates cannot go on very long. Eventually, way too much of US government borrowing goes to pay interest.
Ultimately, the value of what US citizens can purchase has to fall. Pensions need to be cut. These ultra rich folks will figure out that pensions are un-payable. How this can be handled is unknown.
the logical summary of that would seem to be:
serious financial collapse would immediately bring about civil unrest (widespread unemployment etc)—
that would allow the potus to initiate martial law.—-
states/regions would react violently. (for or against it)—
that would initiate even more suppressive measures—-
conventional government itself would be ”temporarily” suspended—
along with any semblance of elections—-
end of the constitution and democratic system.
Probably end of pensions for the elderly and government coverage of healthcare, too. School become, “whatever you and your neighbors can afford.”
The US military can’t be used against US states/citizens (posse comitatus).
It’s unclear if martial law can actually be imposed in the US. A state of emergency can be.
dont rely on the constitution
soldiers ultimately follow whoever pays their wages.
And we’re also protected in our personal papers and effects from unreasonable searches and seizures!! Koff, koff.
And the government is supposed to allow us to petition them with our grievances, but tell that to the J6 people still being held without charges.
The current incoming administration ran on getting rid of inflation if they make it worse there will be a sweep of opposing parties in 2 years time. Trump would become a lame duck. I’m already hearing anti wealth language . I see us heading to depression not hyper inflation. It’s easier to control people in depression
This is clearly Trump’s last term. He has already served one term. He will be too old to run again at the end of this term. I suppose by decree he could extend the term. This seems to be Zelensky’s approach in Ukraine.
Trump et al winning the “election” only postponed USAs endgame …
Postponing the USA’s endgame is a big deal.
Yet another data point of the Western world fragmenting. Jan reported about Austria cozying up to its unruly neighbors. Some of the Trump troops are just elites bailing out of the globalist camp and orlov implies. Another data point was the La Scala Christmas show in Milan, which was a Tchaikowski opera with a Russia director. Funded by Intesa San Paolo, the biggest european bank in russia and now one of the biggest investors in Musk’s future projects. It’s a small world.
US Covid Commission results have been published.
As I thought, at least concerning the West, we should have waited the result of a sort of internal earthquake in US, to know what really happened.
Because the satellite Countries of the Empire would not have had the courage to open the box of Pandora (please refer to ancient Greek mithology for the meaning).
We can say that about the origin of the virus, Covid restrictions, ineffectiveness and not-communicated-danger of so called vaccines, we got it right very early here.
I would really like to thank Gail Tverberg for this blog which has always been a ‘free of speech’ space and it was fundamental to understand many sorrounding aspects. Many Thanks!
https://oversight.house.gov/release/final-report-covid-select-concludes-2-year-investigation-issues-500-page-final-report-on-lessons-learned-and-the-path-forward/
https://luogocomune.net/medicina-salute/conclusa-la-commissione-covid-usa
https://sfero.me/article/-conclusioni-commissione-inchiesta-usa-covid
The first link is the press release going with a great report (released on Dec. 2, 2024) regarding covid and the US response. It includes lots of important findings. A few examples:
COVID-19 ORIGIN: COVID-19 most likely emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. The FIVE strongest arguments in favor of the “lab leak” theory include: (list given)
WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO): The WHO’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an abject failure because it caved to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party and placed China’s political interests ahead of its international duties. Further, the WHO’s newest effort to solve the problems exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic — via a “Pandemic Treaty” — may harm the United States.
VACCINE MANDATES: Vaccine mandates were not supported by science and caused more harm than good. . .
Well parts of it are good, but I hold with Denis Rancourt and his colleagues on this one. I think you are familiar with his work – if not see his substack for a start.
This seems to be a link to Denis Rancourt’s Substack article.
https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/there-was-no-pandemic
Denis says,
In fact, after all the hundreds of articles and researches read, I also think that even the original variant of the so called Whuan virus was not so deadly.
It was the decision on how to treat people with forced ventilation in hospital and wrong treatments in hospital and at home that caused the first wave of mortality.
That was due to the decision to follow precise sort of military protocols imposed by private societies like Gavi and other foundations, and by sort of public/private societies like WHO, which imposes protocols almost in every angle of advances societies.
Then the second big wave of mortality arrived with the application of experimental vaccine mandates, imposed again with the same methodology.
It was really an attempt to make a sort of re-start of society, in which vaccine mandates and new digital passports would have regulated every movement and permission to do anything in the society.
It was an attempt to find a solution to the problem we talk here.
It went wrong.
In some ways it was also useful for China.
Russia followed in order not to be excluded by this new platform of mRNA therapies, but about themselves they don’t have yet a problem of too much population.
The funny thing was that in some poor Countries, like in some south America Countries, or Middleast Countries (see Afghanistan or Iran or others), they practically did nothing and also nothing in particular happened :-D.
Covid passed away like a strong flue.
Now we are in the reckoning phase in the West, maybe the new US administration could change something in the West side of the world, but Trump takes unpredictable decisions, so we don’t know exactly what could happen.
I hope he will scrumble a bit everything.
I have the impression that Trump prefers strong american people, maybe with less services and helps, and that could die easily for other causes, but I think he doesn’t like weak american people with poor health caused by artificial treatments.
I think you have some good insights here. The first wave of mortality was caused by bad treatments; the second by bad vaccines. These approaches were an attempt to work around the world’s too high population problem, but it didn’t work.
It is easy to generate hot spots (as Rancourt states). All you need is a guy with a diapazolam syringe going around a nursing home at night (as it probably happened in Bergamo and other northern italian locales in march 2020). The publication of the report seems to imply that they will never again try another pandemic.
In Europe we see political instability rising. The people are losing their faith in the traditional political parties and new political parties emerge with every new election
(in the Netherlands, Italy, France and so on). These new political parties are branded rightwing extremists; but they really are a sign that voters lose faith in the powers that be.
The newly elected politicians cannot live up to their promises and often disappear in the next election. It is Dmitry Orlovs “Political Collaps” in plain sight.
Political instability clearly has happened in the US, too. Now, citizens are seeking a change in leaders in Canada, as well.
There are not enough resources to go around. The question is what approach is most reasonable for getting along without. Also, there is a desire to keep the overall system together and not scare citizens.
The Republicans in the US have no plan. Tariffs and firing two million government employees is sure to break the economy.
In some sense, the economy already is broken. The hope is to allow some parts of the economy to continue for a time, even if some parts are hopelessly broken. Something has to shrink back in size.
Thanks a lot for the new article and Happy New Year to everyone commenting here.
https://peakprosperity.com/2024-year-in-review-what-is-a-fact/
Just a reminder that parts 1 and 2 of Collum’s Year in Review are out. Gail is quoted.. which is always nice.
Where am I quoted in this? I tried to scan this, but I didn’t notice the quote.
You are in there, more than half way through the article in a light green box, but described as
“retired actuary and editor of The Oil Drum”
Draw your own conclusions about the author.
I cut out the quote and uploaded it as an image.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Quote-in-2024-Year-in-Review-by-David-Collum.png
The link he gives seems to be to the comments in
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/08/21/todays-economy-is-like-that-of-the-late-1920s/
I am not sure if this is correct source. It certainly sounds like something I wrote.
The biggest enemy of humans is the growth of their population. The die out is no problem, as the humans can evolve from apes again.
That is not the way evolution works. Humans didn’t come from apes, we are apes.
Hominidae
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hominidae
The most recent common ancestor of all Hominidae lived roughly 14 million years ago
Humans evolved from lower primates in a very certain set of circumstances that is almost impossible to reproduce. When humans go extinct, there probably isn’t going to be anything like the genus Homo ever again on planet earth.
“Probably isn’t going to be anything like the genus Homo again”,
Promise? Once is enough for us to be dumped into the trash bin of extinction, along with all others. Somehow, many believe we humans are a “Special” creation and to that, if so construed, I will as GOD, “Why he didn’t do a better job?”
Long ago I recall reading a book on such about “evolution” and distinct species appearance….from what I recall it’s not what we are being told according to the evidence..
Be that as it may, that was a good post Wit82
““Why he didn’t do a better job?””
In the last of the Rosinante Trilogy, Gilliland’s AI character makes the case that God wanted AIs, but building them would violate its own rules. So it evolved humans as the tool to make AIs.
Well, it’s as good as the background story of any other religion.
Yes, God created humans and the humans created destructive pollution, making also the lives of other species a hell.
I would have thought that predation would be hell enough. What kind of god is it?
“humans created destructive pollution,”
I live in LA where in spite of ten million automobiles, the air is OK to breath almost all the time. I can remember 50 years ago when it was not, so it is possible for humans to clean up their act.
That’s funny…”violate it’s own rules”
We do have and active imagination with fiction
I prefer the Honest Sorcerer version,”We did it because we can and could”, no reason
We comment was mostly just for amusement.
humans didnt evolve from apes
we had a common ancestor from whom apes and humans diverged 5m years ago
so we will not ”evolve again”
5m years from now, other critters will have evolved—maybe on the bipedal pattern—who knows.
but there will not be enough resources to start over with an industrial society
This common ancestor, Norman; was it perchance an ape?
Here’s a clue: The first apes evolved in Africa around 25 million years ago. The earliest known ape is the Proconsul, which lived in East Africa 20 million years ago. The Proconsul had a monkey-like body, but no tail and features of the wrist that indicate it was at the base of the ape family tree.
pedantry tim
no one can define a ‘precise ancestor’—too many variables
maybe the apes can lose their 2 chromosomes again, just because nature willed it..
This is an article about the differing number of chromosomes among different types of apes. Also, some thoughts on how the number can change.
https://onlyzoology.com/how-many-chromosomes-do-apes-have-and-more-info-to-know/
How many chromosomes do Great Apes have? Why do Humans have 23 pairs of chromosomes and Great Apes 24? (With Reasons, Proofs, Comparison, and More)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lot-distress-germanys-solar-industry-crushed-demand-slump-bankruptcies-and-layoffs
Some of the same problem as with automobile manufacture. Europe cannot compete with cheap Chinese goods.
What about small modular molten salt Thorium nuclear reactors? These have been commercialized in China. They don’t use Uranium. Thorium is easier to source. They are far less dangerous and don’t produce much waste. There is a plant producing them in Copenhagen. About the size of a shipping container. When will this tech become talked about at least?
“What about small modular molten salt Thorium nuclear reactors?
I suspect you are conflating a couple of ideas. For reasons of neutron economy, I don’t think “small modular” applies to molten salt reactors.
“These have been commercialized in China.”
Experimental only as far as I know.
” They don’t use Uranium.”
The usually do use uranium to get started.
“Thorium is easier to source. They are far less dangerous and don’t produce much waste. ”
All true.
“There is a plant producing them in Copenhagen.”
That is news to me. Last I knew the Chinese are the only people working on them.
“About the size of a shipping container.”
If you have a name or a pointer to their web site that would be most interesting
“When will this tech become talked about at least?”
When it happens.
Simon Michaux said in a talk that the company developing these molten-salt Th reactors is Copenhagen Atomics.
However, the first one was built by Oak Ridge National Lab., c. 1970.
“was built by Oak Ridge National Lab., c. 1970.”
Nitpicking.
“This technology was researched through the 1960s, the reactor was constructed by 1964, it went critical in 1965, and was operated until 1969.[1]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-Salt_Reactor_Experiment
Ten years ago I dug into this because the proposed topping cycle that used potassium vapor looked like it would raise the efficiency of thermal power satellites to over 50%.
I am afraid Keith Henson is right on this subject.
Debunked to death.
Interesting that all but 2 carriers are at home port and one of those is at another port, meaning only 1/11 is on patrol.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/GgfdJpPXgAA2CEI.jpg?itok=Y97-mRv2
I don’t know how usual that is compared to past decades, but it raises the question to me about force readiness. I’ve seen claims that 1/3-1/4 of the time is generally deployed, so we’re below that right now.
Another source
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/navy-ships/US%20Aircraft%20Carriers%20Location%20Tracker
I have a friend in the navy whose son is presently in Norfolk, Virginia. The ship he is assigned to is stationed there for some kind of repairs or upgrades that seem to be taking months. His mother is very happy–her son is nowhere near where the fighting is going on.
In the 70’s, it looks like folks were deployed a much greater percentage of the time, about as often as not.
In Austria, the leader of the so-called ultra-right party will form a coalition with the conservatives and become the next chancellor.
The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is an traditional party with a lot of experience in regional governments and being multiple times the junior partner in federal coalitions. During the pandemic, the FPÖ was the major parliamentarian force to reject a vaxx mandate. The liberal party aims to balance the budget, restricts migration, demands peace in Ukraine and Israel, and is open for cooperations with Orban and Fico. Though there are so called “old Nazis” present in all main Austrian parties, and though the FPÖ is a modern social-liberal party, elected also by young women, it has been blamed by all other parties as right extremist. This strategy is called in the German speaking countries “the firewall” (die Brandmauer). After the fail of the negotiations of the planned “coalition of losers”, a three party coalition between conservatives, socialists and neoliberals, it is expected that FPÖ party leader Herbert Kickl will become the next chancellor in a coalition with the conservatives. This fuels hope to see “a fall of the firewall” also in Germany or France.
This is great news. Thanks Jan.
Yes Ed ! When the ship sinks at least we can say we were on the right side!
It was a huge fu of Woody Wilson to destroy the Austrian empure so the Czechs coukd have a country
What did the Czechs do for the next 100 years? They drank beer.
Why do you hate the Czech (nation) so much?
(Every now and then you make comments in this direction.)
Yesterday I’ve listened Dvorak (Piano Concerto in G Minor and Humoresque).
I like their Krušovice (esp. the black version).
The first non-SU non-US man in space was Czech/Slovak.
They had and have great sportsmen and teams.
They have scientists, mathematicians, software developers, medical professionals, writers, craftsmen, etc.
They have their own language.
They did not start major wars in Europe (or did I miss something?).
They are ‘just normal people’. And this is what should be a role model for many more. Many (esp. Germans, Eurocrats, Americans) have very high ambitions — the higher they reach the more destruction they cause.
We had Pax Romana, Pax Britannica and still Pax Americana.
I am really looking forward to a peace achieved not by dominance but by normal (boring in your view) coexistence.
BTW in your logic: What about Bulgaria, Romania, Benelux, Vatican — what technical inventions came from any of the Popes?
I think most people now are not aware of the 30 years war, began when what woulf later be called Czechs threw envoys from the Empire down at Prag.
Benelux. Leewenhoek. De Maitre.
Romania and Bulgaria were part of Turkey so they are new.
Gregor Mendel did not speak a word of Czech. When he died, his Czech speaking successor burnt down, all of his papers. But the city of Brunn, which became Brno thanks to Woody Wilson, named a iniversity after Mendel whoveould not have liked an institutiln namef after him educating Czechs.
This seems to be a very realistic forecast, Gail! Happy New Year to all!
Happy New Year!
My husband and I will be going on a vacation trip to Southeast Asia, leaving late in the day on January 9. Hopefully, my commenting will not be interrupted too badly. The flight from Atlanta to Singapore will take quite a while, most of 24 hours. I will be flying back from Hong Kong on January 27.
Have a nice trip!
Sounds like great fun. Hearing ground truth is always welcome.
I am not sure I will get any insider information on this trip however. I am taking day trips into Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam. We have choices of which day trips we would like. We chose the “see what life is really like,” to the extent this is possible on this tour.
Looking at Statistical Review of World Energy data, Cambodia isn’t even listed.
Vietnam’s energy consumption per capita was 49.5 in 2023. It is clearly poorest of the places listed, but growing.
Thailand’s energy consumption per capita is 69.7. This amount has been slightly declining.
Hong Kong (a financial center) show 120.8, a big decline from 2018.
Singapore shows 577.0 It is a financial and shipping center.
In China your company job often comes with a company apartment. Even if cash salary goes to zero people need their job to avoid homelessness.
My reporters in Beijing report BAU.
Thanks for the info.
If it is a low enough level job, the apartment may be more like a bunk in a room for several workers, I believe. For most people, I understand that it will be a shared apartment.
I would expect that the people with serious job problems are people headed out of Beijing and other major cities, because they cannot find jobs. They would be the young people with college degrees who cannot find jobs that use those degrees. They would not want to be conspicuous to other people in Beijing.
Now is the time to do less with less. Good per capita will be fixed by lowering the number of people.
are you offering yourself to be one less ed?
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-04-07/apres-moi-le-deluge-2/
“The American way of life,” George H.W. Bush infamously declared in 1992, “is not-negotiable.”
Norman, I can think of eight billion others I will pick first.
me too—even though ive had more than my fair share, i refuse to vacate my slot
yes—i remember the non negotiable thing as well
There’s been a society for voluntary human extinction for over 50 years. It’s not sinister or suicidal, just people who decided ages ago that the planet would be better off if no humans had children. See https://www.vhemt.org/
//////Phasing out the human species by voluntarily ceasing to breed will allow Earth’s biosphere to return to good health. Crowded conditions and resource shortages will improve as we become less dense.//////
no
our current condition has been the direct consequence of our numbers
that’s good or bad
you cannot have resource production without the necessary numbers to acquire them.
our prosperity level has been a direct consequence of resource counsuption.
reduce world pop to 1 bn and you will have the living standards of the 18th c
norman, that is untrue.
it would be a temporary reduction in standards of living but you need to balance the equations.
extraction and consumption.
if you removed africa or india, not much would change you could just import your workers there for resources (former).
if you remove china, yes standard of living would drop immediately.
norman 98% of the first world population and 90% of second world population does not work in food production or mineral raw extraction.
you got it reversed. if the cobalt mining children disappeared, and we didn’t have to feed the 4-5B people, we could just import european technology to export the raw minerals. you got it? TECHNOLOGY is energy dissipation multiplier. we just use cheap human labour because it is convenient, but keeping those humans alive is actually more costly in resources than having an automated production line factory of few workers. the quantity of miners and whatever doesn’t change. so you are wrong. most of western world sits at desk or drinks starbucks coffee. the blue collar class would just grow larger to fill this gap with better regulations for health rather than disregard for human value/life because of 1Bil extra chinese/or whomever making your baskets and shipping it over.
to select one sentence:
/////but keeping those humans alive is actually more costly in resources than having an automated production line factory of few workers. ///////
we exist in a consumer economy
a production line employing a few workers would have a vastly reduced market for its output.
you cannot cut 5bn out of the earth-equation and expect to earth to roll on as before.—the earth is interlocked, in a n economic system
I presume “Good” means “Goods.”
What we see around us are the constant failures of the growth attempts. You simply can not believe in the growth. As the world is a finite sphere, the belief in growth has got always terrible consequences.
Promises, wishes that get stuck and collapse.
When the human growth.turns into a mayhem, it is the time for nature to step in.
The too high population density always leeds to collapse: the current situation in China, where the higher and higher numbers of the prople left for the cities was unsustainable. The predictions that higher and higher proportions of the populations will live in the cities are simply wrong.
It certainly takes energy from the countryside to sustain cities. It seems as if falling per capita oil will disproportionately push down the population of major cities. This started when people started working at home more and moving farther way.
If there are not enough jobs in the cities, we have heard stories of people moving back to the countryside, where their relatives are. Perhaps more of this will take place.
Even the rich have no juice left .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/porsche-applies-large-markdown-taycan-ev-demand-runs-out-juice
You are right. From within the article:
It becomes impossible to sell these expensive cars.
I assumed solid state batteries were a bit into the future but we’re going to have a long wait for oil to dry up.
Hyundai aims to begin full-scale production of all-solid-state batteries in January 2025
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/hyundai-pilot-production-of-ev-batteries
So it still takes oil to produce all this. How much? Who cares? producing energy seems to be more of an issue.
supercapacitor device was directly connected to a Si solar cell, it achieved a storage efficiency of 63 % and a high overall efficiency of 5.17 %
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544224033711?via%3Dihub
This seems promising ; I don’t understand those calculations: the drop off from 63 to 5.( 20% solar * 63???) I’m assuming it’s better than using teslas.
This might be pie in the sky but so was EVs not too long ago & we might be able to say the same thing about solid state batteries pretty soon. I’m only an amateur but I remember quite a while ago Buckminster Fuller saying doing more with less . So far he’s been right.
The Hyundai article says:
So there are still real-world issues to be evaluated and worked out. Can they be made cheaply, in quantity?
The abstract of the second article says:
Perhaps someone else can take a look at this article. This is not my area of expertise.
I wonder if the merger of Nissan and Honda is a trend to consolidation.
It certainly is an example of consolidation.
I expect to see a different kind of consolidation: More unrelated adults living in the same household, to keep costs down. And more multigenerational households. Perhaps all share a single vehicle.
As China’s share of world auto production continues to climb, all other manufacturers will have to compete or merge to maintain scale and even then will likely still be uncompetitive.
I am afraid you may be right. Of course, China is having enough problems that I wonder whether the country will be able to maintain is auto production at the same level in the future.
“auto production at the same level in the future.”
When we have nanotech based local fabricators the whole auto business will collapse.
the auto industry is dependent on our need to make large objects move from a to b and back again on the most trivial of demands from ”us”. (and pay ourselves wages for doing so)
now—-if i may paste the definition of ”nanotechnology”:
///////the branch of science and engineering devoted to designing, producing, and using structures, devices, and systems by manipulating atoms and molecules at nanoscale, i.e. having one or more dimensions of the order of 100 nanometres (100 millionth of a millimetre) or less.////////
a vehicle of itself is ,in fundamental terms—a collection of molecules put together in a form that will accommodate people and/or goods in order that they may be moved from a to b at will.
are you saying Keith, that in our future, an individual will be able to summon up a vehicle, on demand, in the necessary form and size to carry out its above function?
something akin to pressing a button on a vending machine maybe? (something at small scale in every neighbourhood??)
Even using nano-wassname, a vehicle has to be of sufficieint size (and therefore weight) to do this.
an object of that mass requires a certain energy input to set it in motion, and keep in in motion—this isnt nano anything, but brute force.
you cannot run a 2 ton vehicle on nano energy.
as ive suggested before—despite your calculations—you seem to base your thinking on wish science and wish economics.
“are you saying Keith, that in our future, an individual will be able to summon up a vehicle, on demand, in the necessary form and size to carry out its above function?”
Yes.
I am a bit player in this field of study. Try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Storrs_Hall
Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of the Machine (2007) ISBN 1-59102-511-7
Where Is My Flying Car?: A Memoir of Future Past (2018)
and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Eric_Drexler
Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization, May 7, 2013, ISBN 1610391136
“sufficieint size (and therefore weight) to do this.”
Nanomachines in cells make redwood trees and whales. Size is not a problem.
“you cannot run a 2 ton vehicle on nano energy.”
Ten percent of US gasoline comes from the nanomachines that grew the corn and the yeast cells that converted the corn to alcohol.
“on wish science and wish economics.”
That’s how it all starts out. “I wish I had a sharp spear point instead of this chunk of rock.” Chip, chip, chip.
there are no nano machines in plants or people
we replicate ourselves—then die. oak trees do the same
problem is weve overdone the replicating part.
As to superabundance—we live on a sphere—with no other life supporting spheres close at hand.
Spheres are—by definition—finite.
But dont let me interfere with your wishlist
Maybe Sanity Claus is real after all
“there are no nano machines in plants or people”
What word would you prefer for the class of things like the protein that copies DNA, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_polymerase. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytochrome_c, or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribosome ?
They look like machines to me and are analyzed using ordinary mechanics, but if you don’t like the term, what would you call them? I can use your term.
“problem is weve overdone the replicating part.”
That’s a feature of biological life. Consider the number of acorns.
“Spheres are—by definition—finite.”
Humans have moved into every habitable space on the planet. There is a lot left that we don’t inhabit. California is densely populated along the coast, but inland it quickly thins out.
A few, not many, don’t live on the sphere. Long term there may be far more people living in space than on the planet. As uploads or physical state? I can’t say.
keith
your undoubted intellect invites intelligent exchange.—which i enjoy
then you go off into ”uploading” people.
interacting on that level reduces my own limited intellect to that of foolishness, which i refuse to do.
“go off into ”uploading” people.”
I did not originate the concept. Among the people I know, the concept has been seriously discussed for 30 years, much like AI was discussed dating back to Alan Turning in 1950.
It is not thought to be easy by anyone I know, requiring strong AI directing molecular scale tools.
But if this is too radical for you, reply to the rest and ignore the parts you can’t deal with. I don’t respond to everything in your posts.
it isnt a matter of ”not dealing with it”
its in the same league as the ”rapture” ”virgin birth” reincarnation” etc etc.
engaging in rational discussion creates the concept that they might have credibility worthy of exchange between intelligent people.
they don’t.
so i dont.—other than as an occassional windup of doorsteppers.
similiarly there are no machines in plants—or us–
a sperm and an egg connect and replicate—a biological process, it is in no way mechanical—well, not if the participants are any good at it.
“its in the same league as the ”rapture” ”virgin birth” reincarnation” etc etc.
engaging in rational discussion creates the concept that they might have credibility worthy of exchange between intelligent people.
they don’t.”
I seldom argue from authority, but when you are talking about something that has not happened yet such as AI up to a couple of years ago, other options are not open
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Advocates
I know some of these people personally. Mostly PhDs from reputable universities.
“similiarly there are no machines in plants—or us–”
A search for biological molecular machine returns many pages including
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_machine
“Molecular machines are a class of molecules typically described as an assembly of a discrete number of molecular components intended to produce mechanical movements in response to specific stimuli, mimicking macromolecular devices such as switches and motors. Naturally occurring or biological molecular machines are responsible for vital living processes such as DNA replication and ATP synthesis. Kinesins and ribosomes are examples of molecular machines, and they often take the form of multi-protein complexes. ”
When a phrase is in common use by people which more education and status than I have, I fell justified in using it.
my typing finger is a collection of disparate molecules, working to a collective purpose–ie doing what i want it to do.–apart from typos.
i can direct it to do other things should i so wish
but it is not–repeat not, a machine.—it requires energy input, there the correlation ends.
you confuse mechanial logic with wishful thinking.
“you confuse mechanial logic with wishful thinking.”
Not mine, read the books.
doesn’t matter which book youre thinking of
its still wishful thinking
start with the bible and work your way through them all
I had about 6 months ago started posting about the decline in Stellantis which continues it’s race down the whirlpool . I gad further said that there will be no automotive industry to speak in 2028 . I stand by my forecast . Peak auto sales 2017-2018 .
https://www.google.com/search?q=car+sales+worldwide&sca_esv=61394a46e30d32dd&hl=en&sxsrf=ADLYWIL1LpWevOQQaxm_r2w2Kltm1_oE1A:1736190879524&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=615&ei=nyt8Z8fyHLqakdUP_firyAE&iflsig=AL9hbdgAAAAAZ3w5r9fn-zglUO-XFj58cKerczOq-c6f&oq=car+sales+worldwide&gs_lp=EgNpbWciE2NhciBzYWxlcyB3b3JsZHdpZGUqAggAMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIEEAAYHjIGEAAYBRgeMgYQABgFGB5Iv7oCUJoaWJ-ZAnAFeACQAQCYAU2gAekJqgECMjG4AQHIAQD4AQGKAgtnd3Mtd2l6LWltZ5gCEKACtgaoAgrCAgcQIxgnGOoCwgIEECMYJ8ICCBAAGIAEGLEDwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAg4QABiABBixAxiDARiKBcICBxAAGIAEGArCAgoQABiABBixAxgKwgIQEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYigUYCsICDRAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGAqYAzaSBwIxNqAH3UQ&sclient=img&udm=2#vhid=DN9BS9WelrQPvM&vssid=mosaic
He agrees from China .
Kevin Walmsley argues that China will take over the world car market with electric cars.
I wonder where all the electricity to charge these cars will come from. Presumably, these cars won’t be driven very far. Also, with as many more cars as he is talking about, it seems like more roads would be required. Where does the world get the resources to build all of these road? I am not convinced that the world can really make use of all the electric cars China is trying to make.
I agree those are nice graphs. I liked this one in particular from
https://roadgenius.com/cars/statistics/sales/
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/car-sales-annual-figure.jpg
>> Researchers are exploring the potential of trees as a future source of sustainable biofuel for applications such as powering aircraft and heavy vehicles.
Studying how to turn trees into necessary fuels. As if perhaps we were running out of existing sources.
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/laser-fingerprints-to-turn-trees-jet-fuel
Deforestation has been a problem for thousands of years. How will this possibly help?
I assumed solid state batteries were a bit into the future but we’re going to have a long wait for oil to dry up.
Hyundai aims to begin full-scale production of all-solid-state batteries in January 2025
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/hyundai-pilot-production-of-ev-batteries
So it still takes oil to produce all this. How much? Who cares? producing energy seems to be more of an issue.
supercapacitor device was directly connected to a Si solar cell, it achieved a storage efficiency of 63 % and a high overall efficiency of 5.17 %
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544224033711?via%3Dihub
This seems promising ; I don’t understand those calculations: the drop off from 63 to 5.( 20% solar * 63???) I’m assuming it’s better than using teslas.
This might be pie in the sky but so was EVs not too long ago & we might be able to say the same thing about solid state batteries pretty soon. I’m only an amateur but I remember quite a while ago Buckminster Fuller saying doing more with less . So far he’s been right.
Hubbert made the classical error of seeing ‘energy availability’ as the answer to all problems, (as in the final graph about nuclear).
Whereas the problem lies in energy usage.—-ie what we actually use it for.
Hubbert, for all his high flown academic status couldnt see it, just as some OFW’ers dont see it.
Cryptonuts don’t see it either.—The constant consumption of energy in ”crypto-mining”—as if that version of ”mining” actually produces usable raw material—when in fact it produces nothing in tangible form, only imaginary wealth, where value is only what someone else says it is.—-not a good base for any asset.
and AI can never produce energy, it can only tell us ways to consume more of the energy that already exists, faster and faster.
our current mode of energy consumption has been the supernova of our existence.
—–measured in earth-time it has been a brief flash of heat and light before we sink back into the darkness of our pre-industrial existence.
I see crypto mining as creating demand for natural gas and coal that are too remote from users to sold in regular markets. It thus is a subsidy for fossil fuel producers who can thus sell more, at a price that is acceptable to them.
Otherwise, it enables at least some people to work around government interference.
“work around government interference.”
That was the original motivation.
Bunch of libertarians.
Given the onrush of the singularity, with things like gasoline trees, I am not sure this makes a lot of sense. But given technology that does not advance much beyond the present, there is a solution that meets most of Gail’s objections to intermittent renewable energy.
Making synthetic fuel from renewable energy.
This is a project to make synthetic fuel from trash (and coal) plus intermittent renewable power.
The chemical reaction upon which this depends.
H2O + C → H2 + CO (ΔH = +131 kJ/mol)
18 12 2 28
dates back to the 1860s when it was used to make domestic gas from coke and steam.
The reaction is endothermic, so the fuel must be continually re-heated to maintain the reaction. “(Wikipedia). They did this by alternately blowing air and steam through the hot coke, burning a lot of the coke to drive the reaction. The idea of heating the coke (or other carbon) with electricity would not have made economic sense, even if someone had thought of it.
Carbon is 12 gm/mol. 83.3 mol/kg and a kg would soak up 10900 kJ. A metric ton of carbon evaporated in steam would need 10900000 kJ or 3.03 MW hours.
This would produce 1/6th of a ton of hydrogen with a combustion energy content of 39.4 MWh/ton, about 6.57 MWh. CO combustion energy is 10.1 MJ/kg. The above reaction produces 2800 kg or about 7.86 MWh. So we make about 14.4 MWh of gas from a ton of coal and 3 MWh of renewable electric power. Most of the energy in the gas is from coal or other carbon sources.
It’s a way to use intermittent power though. From this point, the gas can be stored for winter, burned in combustion turbines, or made into methane, jet fuel, or diesel.
The F/T reaction is
CO + 2H2 → CH2 + H2O. Half the CO must be converted to hydrogen in the water gas shift reaction.
CO + H2O → CO2 + H2. This CO2 can be sorted out and stored.
To solve the CO2 buildup we would still need to do air capture, but that has to be done anyway.
A back of the envelope example
The closest landfill to where I live (Sylmar, CA) gets 9,000 tons of trash per day. Call it 4000 tons/day of carbon. An installation like Sasol’s Oryx plant that makes 34,000 bbl/day would need about 8500 tons of carbon, so it would need ~4500 tons of coal per day additional. That is around 45 rail cars per day which is a modest amount and there is a nearby rail line. Vaporizing this amount of carbon would be 8500t/24h x 3 MWh/t, a little over a GW. If peak load was 3 times that, 3 GW that just happens to be the capacity of the nearby Sylmar convertor station so the power lines could handle it.
It is about 40 miles from the landfill to a Chevron refinery where they could process the gas into synthetic jet fuel and diesel. There are several old oil fields along the route. It would take considerable effort to decide if the oil fields were suitable to store a buffer of syngas but they probably are.
Figured at $200/bbl, $2.40/gal, the gross annual income of this venture would be ~2.5 B./year. The trash is free, the coal $66 million (at $40/ton). The power would cost $175 million at $20/MWh. (The least expensive PV is $13.50 per MWh.) Maintenance might double this number, still leaving $2B/year. For a 5 year return on capital, the project could cost $10 B. The Sasol plant cost a billion dollars, but that included a refinery. I wonder if there is an unused pipeline close to the 405 freeway. If not, pipelines are around $8 million dollars a mile.
The one part of this project that does not exist at scale is a 3 GW vaporizer. That’s an awful lot of power but not unprecedented for industrial processes. A blast furnace for iron ranges from 1-5 GW, most of it from the combustion of coke. I have been in an 800 MW aluminum smelter and a 50 MW steel plant. The steel plant used 3 electrodes that were 2-3 feet in diameter. If the design scales, the electrodes would be around 2 meters. There may be some way to use the coal as electrodes.
Funding a study
Modern warfare is completely dependent on jet fuel and diesel. However, we live at the tail end of fossil fuels era. While supplies are at present adequate, this will not be true in the long term. The proposal here is to use trash and coal heated by renewable power in steam to make syngas. The syngas can be turned into jet fuel and diesel by Fisher Tropsch plants.
Another problem this solves is that the US has been overrun by landfills. The EU uses incinerators which could be replaced by this method to make syngas.
Lots of engineering and economic problems to solve, but the point is that renewable energy *can* be used to make synthetic fuel to replace that from oil. It also could solve the seasonal energy shift that so concerns Gail.
keith
trash isnt free.
its the end product of a whole sequence of energy consuming processes, each one of which is subject to the laws of thermodynamics.
if you intend to negate those laws, then you must input fresh energy resources along the line somewhere.
if you dont, then—at a guess—the end result of scouring dumps for, say. old plastic, would bring you a 10% return…at best i think…on your original energy investment input.
i honestly cant think of much else in dumps that would be viable to scavenge, in any event it would be ”once only”.
“trash isnt free.”
For this economic analysis it is. It has to be hauled to the landfill in any case, dumping into the gasifier instead of the landfill is close enough to zero cost difference.
“must input fresh energy resources”
Did you understand the proposal? It uses an average of a GW of renewable power to upgrade the carbon in the trash (and some coal) to enough syngas to make 34,000 bbl of synthetic diesel a day. Trash is about 40% carbon.
I am quite sensitive to the laws of thermodynamics. If you see where I have made an error in this analysis, please point it out.
a plastic bottle is maybe 40% carbon (you tell me) but almost everything else in a trash dump will, after a very short time, be so degraded as to be useless in any practical sense.
trash dumps would in any event, be a once only venture.
and you would be inputting more and more alternative energies to make up the thermodynamic shortfalls.
“more and more alternative energies to make up the thermodynamic shortfalls.”
That’s true. CO2 can be made into fuel, but it takes 3H2 to do so. The energy isn’t the big problem, it is the capital cost of the platinum electrolyzers that kill the economics.
Engineering developments or mining asteroids could change that, but in the short term, using carbon and renewable power to make hydrogen looks like the most economical.
“a plastic bottle is maybe 40% carbon (you tell me)
Polyethylene is (CH2)n. 85% carbon.
“but almost everything else in a trash dump will, after a very short time, be so degraded as to be useless in any practical sense.”
It does not matter as long as the carbon atoms are still there. Trash averages 40% carbon. It’s not enough, so we add biomass and/or coal as needed.
“trash dumps would in any event, be a once only venture.”
True, but they probably will last untill the big technology advances come along.
Keith
not that it will be of the slightest use—but–
I’ll say it again……wish science and wish economics
(Until new technology advances come along)—-lol
You also ignore the real biggie—–
wish politics.
Right now, humankind is engaged to wars of denial over energy, and has been so for almost the last century. Intervals of peace have been just lulls in the fighting—Fuhrers keep re-emerging)
The MAGAnuts promise a future that cannot be delivered, yet our ship of fools has a collective delusion over it.—-ie prosperity is something you vote for (millions did just that, despite the obvious charlatans making the promises—just as they did in the 1930s).
Whatever sceintific advances might be potentially made in our future, they will be negated by wars of survival. (WW2 was an oil war btw—nothing else)
And i suspect that not even your calculator has a survival key on it.
“You also ignore the real biggie—–
wish politics.
Right now, humankind is engaged to wars.”
Do you think that “ignore” is a fair statement? My paper https://www.academia.edu/777381/Evolutionary_psychology_memes_and_the_origin_of_war is still being downloaded after many years and I have another one, “Genetic Selection for War in Prehistoric Human Populations” that is in press.
“they will be negated by wars of survival.”
Some events change the long term future. Agriculture and the Industrial Revolution are examples. Will there be wars after the AI revolution? I don’t know, but I hope not.
all wars are over resources—this is why humankind is inclined to it–always have been.
only the scale has has changed—entirely ‘enabled’ by the industrial revolution.
which to a certain limited extent is ”my subject’, –my latest book, due out this year, deals (in part) in the production techniques by which 10 cannon could be produced simultaneously instead of one. (as an example)—this radically changed the business of warfare.—it tore our world apart—quite literally.
the world itself is kicking back, and we see it as mere politics while the solution lies in wishes and fantasies, driven by our abilities to ”calculate’ our future. I dont doubt your calculations are correct.
unfortunately the future doesnt work like that.
there will be war as long as imbalance is in the world—ai wont make us like each other
“all wars are over resources—”
While wars in the era when genes for war were selected, I don’t think that is the case now. Not sure about Gaza, but Russia is not short on resources.
There is also a group that split off very early and may never have been selected for war. They have (or had) an inordinately low reproductive rate.
ukraine is one of the breadbaskets of the world
Putin can see the future as well as anyone else, food is the prime energy resource, he wants to grab what he can now.
hitler had the same motivation in 1941
Happy New Year, Keith!
Happy New Year, Norman!
And many happy returns to OFW to you both.
Keith, I love the idea of using renewable power to turn the carbon in landfill into synthetic fuels.
I don’t know if it’s practical, but there isa lot of landfill, and nobody will miss it when it’s gone. Even Greta would smile upon this proposal.
tw Tim
Coal has a problem of being too low-priced for producers right now, especially in China. Transporting this coal to where it is needed for your reaction provides a use for oil (partly coming out of the system, but not in the right form, I would guess).
Trash seems to be available now, around the world. Whether it is suitable for burning, without producing excessive pollution is a question. A person might ask this question with respect to coal as well.
But we can’t count on this trash actually be available in the future. This makes building infrastructure to handle trash, iffy.
“not in the right form, I would guess).”
It is nearly zero sulfur diesel. Locomotives would run on it without problems.
“suitable for burning, without producing excessive pollution is a question. ”
Agreed, though they do burn trash and recover energy from it in Europe. But this method does not generate any pollution. You get valuable syngas and slag out of the gasifier. The slag can be sold for construction material.
“we can’t count on this trash actually be available in the future. This makes building infrastructure to handle trash, iffy.”
That’s true. Nanotechnology based home recyclers would largely end trash. But that is some years out and we can mine the landfills long enough to pay off the infrastructure. So the input side of the business looks like supplies of trash are there long enough to pay off the capital equipment.
The market for oil products could fail, but that would take a general collapse or a nuclear war. Just one of the risks for any business.
Keith You want trash . Here take it . This is Delhi only . Calcutta, Mumbai , Bangalore , Chennai etc also available .
Home based nanotechnology recyclers.
I can see the murder novelists busy with plots on doing away with the body with a nanotech recycler.
“nanotech recycler.”
You need these things to have some smarts.
Otherwise the self cleaning nanotech floor eats the fur off the under side of a cat taking a nap.
or even using the hearth rug for other purposes
gas and coal are of no use unless they are converted into some other form of energy–eg electricity.
that requires complex infrastructure—either where the coal and gas are produced, or the coal and gas must be carried to the power plant for conversion.
norman the equation is still governed by energy fluxes of geological processes.
so yes, CREATION takes precedence over CONSUMPTION.
CONSUMTPION can be EFFICIENTALIZED or REDUCED or PRIORITIZED in different ways but you are JUST DISSIPATING energy regardless. Even if we lowered our standard of living to JAPAN levels that only buys us TIME briefly. Do YOU get it? AVAILABILITY comes first. If you have 100000 units of stockpile, you can enjoy 10 units/century at a leisurely pace. If you have 100 units of stockpile, you can reduce 10 units to 1 unit but NOTHING changed because the MULTIPLIER (population) multiplied. Bill GATES equation says this
X = POPULATION X SERVICES X EFFICIENCY RATE X SERVICES PER POPULATION
SERVICES being QUALITY/TYPE as you SAID BUT NOTHING fundamentally changed because the SCALE OF REGENERATION for those AVAILABILITY is MUCH less given X population at Y level of standard of living in ALL cases.
So yes, humanity could ”super-prioritize” and live well with 1/10 of western energy consumption but humans don’t share and overbreed anyways and the time of DOUBLING as hubbert says is actually CORRECT. 1/72th doubling time means even a 1% growth rate means your ”prioritizing” only delays the inevitable by a mere century or two, so NO AVAILABILITY and REGENRATION rate is STILL PRECEDENT before the CONSUMPTION rate.
Happy new year everyone. No discussion on the disastrous decision of the EU to ban russian gas imports?
I thought there were exceptions for Hungary and Slovakia and Europe will continue to get Russian gas via Turkstream and the rest is as is. Basically the only change is that Transnistria will be cut off entirely. If that’s not right, what’s the latest arrangement?
What is happening of something strange and interesting in Europe is that Von der Leyen is out of the scenes because she says she has a pneumonia and contemporarily Elisabetta Belloni, head of Italian secret services, has just resigned.
Rumors say that E.B. is going to have an important role in EU.
I’m almost sure that Von der Leyen is in good health now and she is just taking the opportunity of fake pneumonia to stay out for a while.
If E.B. will come to a whatever position in EU, it means that we will enter, or better, we will go more deeply towards a war condition, internal, external or both.
Let’s see…
https://it.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/06/von-der-leyen-non-delega-le-sue-funzioni-mentre-lotta-contro-la-polmonite
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2025/01/06/elisabetta-belloni-lascia-servizi-segreti-von-der-leyen/7826615/
It sounds to me as if we don’t really know the outcome of all of this yet.
Citizens will be less concerned if reduced natural gas imports (even none at all) come as a decree from the EU, than if they are imposed from outside.
On the other hand, the idea of banning natural gas imports could be one of the things that causes the EU to unravel. Any thinking government will not want to be part of this.
Yes. Jan post about the Austrian political situation can be understood geo-politically as the beginning of formation of a block, since Austria borders both Slovakia and Hungary. Serbia is a natural next step. Further afield I see Montenegro and Italy also considering this.
As always, thanks for the new post.
The current situation in Turkey may shed some light on your analysis: Interest rates in the country are extremely high—possibly among the highest in the world. However, this situation has created a significant opportunity for foreign investors, who have lent money to Turkey at these high rates. As a result, the U.S. dollar has not been rising in Turkey for some time.
But this could lead to the collapse of many industries tied to tourism and exports. The stability of the dollar has eroded Turkey’s competitive advantages in these sectors, especially in the context of the country’s severe inflation. Additionally, due to the high interest rates, people can no longer easily afford homes or cars. Meanwhile, wages are not increasing in line with inflation.
While the real inflation rate is approximately 80%, government institutions distort the reality, reporting it as around 46%. This manipulation results in significantly lower raises for public employees, retirees, and workers. Consequently, people are experiencing a horrifying level of impoverishment. The monthly income of working individuals has decreased by 30-40% compared to last year, and this trend seems likely to continue. Retirees are particularly struggling, facing even harsher financial conditions.
Thanks for your insights. What happened in Turkey could happen elsewhere, I am afraid.
High interest rates and a high currency don’t work well for long!
Thank you for your answer. The reason for this may lie in the short-term priorities of politicians who focus on immediate public approval. By borrowing money from foreign investors at high interest rates, they managed to stabilize the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which in turn temporarily reduced inflation. This provided short-term relief from rising prices.
However, in the long run, this strategy has severely undermined key sectors like tourism and exports, destroying Turkey’s competitiveness. Stabilizing the dollar exchange rate made wages in Turkey appear artificially high compared to its competitors. To maintain its competitiveness with countries in a similar economic category, Turkey might have needed to allow the dollar to rise.
However, doing so would have meant accepting greater impoverishment of workers and employees. Instead, they chose this roundabout path to avoid the immediate social and political fallout. Yet, the outcome will not change. They will ultimately arrive at the same point, facing the consequences of declining competitiveness and increasing economic hardship.
I am afraid you are correct.
Gail, I believe in one of your previous writings, you compared the state of the economy to riding a bicycle—where the rider must keep pedaling to avoid falling. It’s a brilliant analogy. I’d like to take it a step further. The modern civilization’s dependency on fossil fuels and energy can be compared to a modern passenger jet soaring at high altitudes. There’s no denying the incredible sense of achievement and progress this represents.
However, once the fuel runs out, the descent is rapid and terrifying. The very systems that allowed us to climb so high leave us vulnerable to a catastrophic fall. And perhaps, stopping such a horrific plunge becomes impossible once it begins. This underscores the precariousness of our current trajectory and the urgency to address it.
Yes, I did talk about the economy being like a bicycle. We need to keep going rapidly enough, or the bicycle will fall over.
Your analogy does sound right. In fact, it is quite worrying.
the ”riding a bike” was my one liner from 10+ years ago—-but you can donate my royalties to the sunshine home for bewildered ex OFW’ers.
I hope you’ve read Ishmael by Daniel Quinn where I first saw the analogy. Chapter Six is dedicated to this analogy of modern human civilization being a doomed flying machine. We just have to pedal harder. Highly, highly recommend the book.
Ok we can simplify this. Politicians don’t do anything. When human take out IOUs on resources, they have a fictitious belief on an augmented resource return of the future. This mismatch between reality and future utilization is the notional basis of trust between individuals as long as it is kept at a sufficiently imperceptible level (aka declining standard of living <1-2% a year).
When people take out more MONETARY units than resources represented in the future, they are deluding themselves and AUSTERITizing their existence temporarily or called 'deferred' consumption in economics in return for a lowered purchase power in the future with faux-belief of higher-return trade-off of present-time delay value-function. Get it? Every human that takes out an IOU for a house or car is effectively the same — excessively greeding for something that would not be representable in value in the real world and competing one against one another for a smaller share of resources. In other words, pedalling harder, for less return.
Currencies can be REPRESENTED as POPULATION differentials in aptitudes with CAPITAL in production of FINAL goods. Since humans are playing IOU-trading for future-time belief in delusional-world, as long their belief in X currency is greater than Y currency they will shift that ''fiat'' into that type or category of instrument, bonds, stocks or whatever. In fiat world, the abstractions just shifted human perception to a belief that this ''population total labour'' is worth more or less than another population and temporarily deferred or delayed imports/exports in raw resources. Maintaining that belief's stability is critical to humans not overtaking government and descending into anarchy.
Lower income people in Turkey are starting to suffer.
Turkey’s Below-Inflation Minimum Wage Rise Sparks Anger, Protests
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkeys-below-inflation-minimum-wage-rise-sparks-anger-protests
This is the plight of all people as the collapse ensnares more nations.
Mr Ozbek . Thanks for your input . I am actually surprised that Turkey has managed to survive so far . I have been watching this since 2003 when six zeros were removed from the ”old Lira ” . Since then there have been many natural disasters earthquakes , coups etc . I agree that Turkey was/is a two trick pony — tourism and exports . However of recent Turkey is non competitive at least in engineering goods [ China ate Turkey / India for breakfast ] . It is now a one trick pony depending on tourism . Please keep updating — it is an interesting case . I can only credit the political manipulation of Erdogan [ Modi in India ] for keeping the ships afloat in both countries . Erdogan uses his NATO membership and Modi his location as the counterweight to China in Asia , however Modi is now losing ground as the West now see he is ineffective .
Thank you Ravi. These kinds of effects remind me of the placebo effect—a phenomenon where belief in a solution, even if it’s ineffective, can create temporary improvements. Indeed, it has worked so far, just as a placebo can provide relief in certain medical conditions. However, like the placebo, this approach has its limits. Beyond a certain point, when the underlying problem grows too large and too severe, the illusion of progress or stability falls apart.
In the context of economies and nations, the placebo effect can be likened to temporary fixes or symbolic gestures—policies or actions that create the perception of recovery or control without addressing the root causes of decline. For example, printing money to stabilize markets, manipulating inflation statistics, or introducing short-term measures to appease public discontent might buy some time. Yet, these are akin to administering sugar pills to a patient with a severe illness—they can mask symptoms but do nothing to cure the disease.
Turkiye is ruling from military point of in Middleast, together with Israel, lately.
Its mercenaries have at last recently conquered Syria, thanks to external money (and I don’t specify what I guess).
It is possible that people will not stay well in Turkiye, but this Country is surely taking back some Ottoman power lately.
It is also probable that additional gas pipelines will pass through it, together with goods from east (middle corridor).
In my view, Turkey should perform well in the chessboard.
The question I have for Erdogan is whether these military and geopolitical maneuvers have positive or negative economic consequences.
Perhaps the most important question to ask is this: Who truly benefited, and who was left behind?
Dear Levent,
I’ve the impression that you are from Turkyie.
From here it is enough to read some not mainstream and also some mainstream media to have an idea of what Turkyie did and is doing in Syria and why and also with what money and additionally with which Countries allied.
You don’t have an idea or your question it is a just rethoric one in order not to mention responsabilities?
If yours is this last one, I completely understand you, I also prefer not to publish my own opinion on this.
Just for example, these news give an idea of what Turkiye is still doing in north east of Syria and what HTS is doing
https://ronahi.tv/archives/305991
https://anfkurdi.com/rojava-sUriye/qsd-Eris-hatin-sikandin-bi-dehan-ceteyen-smo-ye-hatin-kustin-192437
https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/article-835508
https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/01/02/suspected-al-qaeda-member-taken-off-turkeys-wanted-list-after-appointment-as-general-in-syria/amp/
Do you think Turkey is doing this entirely on its own? I believe the real question lies here. Personally, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, I’m highly doubtful that even Turkey fully chose this path for itself.
It is already clear who Turkey is allied with. Therefore, the answer to the question is also obvious.
Too low prices for olives in Tunisia led to the suspension of the harvest
https://youtu.be/Y1rrRca29D0?si=vezbtQTCZaqY8E4g
Olive producers won’t work for too low price of the product they are producing.
Honda wants to save itself with cheap flying cars under 5.000 USD:
https://youtu.be/LxgD7kRVhzI?si=0Uvc1EHA_lyKkeI2
As the infrastructure is deteriorating, s flying car does not need roads or bridges.
Something is off with that price. The flying car in that video looks more like a $400,000 vehicle. In today’s world $5000 gets you mandatory dealer add-ons on a new Honda Pilot SUV.
All I can say is, don’t show that to John Michael Greer who said we would never see flying cars. 😄
Maybe this is one (of many) technofixes that we need.
We do not have special chips for AI mass application, current AI is not reliable:
https://youtu.be/_XXBPzeMgaM?si=ZP3NFzI-vSaqQwmy
Interesting video.
Peter Zeihan argues that current advanced chips were built to support video games. AI really needs a different more advanced kind of chip, if it is to keep its energy consumption down to a reasonable level, keep the chips from not generating too much heat, and allow the chips to produce more reliable results. Such chips will not be available, in quantity, until 2040, because of supply chain issues.
Please tell, what “mass” application for AI is needed? To help me know what to order at MacDonalds?
AI is not built for you. Its built for whoever owns it. Mass applications include rebuilding an internet which provide all the services currently provided by people who worked to create and operate the same.
Will this be possible? At some level it already is. Keep doubling AI processing every few months, and give it six years. A some point, something will be so compelling, that it will be released.
We can’t keep doubling ‘AI processing’ every six months. There isn’t enough power.
People keep moving the goalposts. It doesn’t need to be reliable in all realms to be useful. If it can code simple stuff faster than a junior software developer, there is a place for that. If it can survey grounds as a robotic dog cheaper than a security guard, there is a place for that. If it can handle simpler helpdesk tasks (whatever domain) before escalation to a human, there is a place for that.
Jobs pretending work in China:
https://youtu.be/8HSVbmhXALY?si=M0ti5wMFaq0XmAX8
Title is “China’s Unemployment Skyrockets Again, Hitting 50%? Many ‘Pretend to Work’ Companies Emerge”
This will allow people to save face, when talking to family and friends. They can say they have a job, even though it is a fake job.
I have earlier ” tick marked ” this channel as anti China propaganda . It is owned by Falun Gong . Check out all their other videos always ” businesses closing in China ” — ” foreigners exodus from China ” etc . Yes , China has problems but this channel multiplies them 100 fold .
Of course, the things can be dramatized on that channel, but we know that they are in line with other sources of information.
YouTube videos are made to catch the audiences.
Thanks for pointing this out.
Yet, I think this idea is so worthwhile, that it is likely happening to some extent. People want to pretend that they are working at a highly paid job, even if it is not possible.
EIA has posted a figure for world oil production for last September (80.795 mb/d) — this is their lowest monthly figure since July, 2022, & is 2.7% below their current monthly post-covid peak oil figure (December, 2023, @ 83.056 mb/d), & 4.5% below their current monthly figure for world peak oil (November, 2018, @ 84.592 mb/d).
Though “petrodollar” prices have increased lately ( http://oil-price.net/ ), is it likely that the world oil supply will hold up, with increasing costs due to depletion? ( https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1725148800000
“their lowest monthly figure since July, 2022, ”
I wonder to what extent this is market saturation for the output and improved efficiency. Great engineering effort has gone into aircraft engines, cars and diesel engines.
Or few young people being able to afford finished goods, because of unemployment or very low wages.
I have this latest number in my Figure 1. You can see the downturn at the end.
When you consider the price we pay for olive oil in the US stores that’s amazing.
The high price of real imported olive oil is likely a reason that stories say that most of the “olive oil” we purchase in the US is diluted with cheaper US vegetable oils.
maybe i’m missing something—-but i don’t see the link, financial or otherwise between olive oil and mineral oil
“olive oil and mineral oil”
The threading was mixed up. It was in reply to
MG says:
January 6, 2025 at 1:55 am
Too low prices for olives in Tunisia led to the suspension of the harvest
I still don’t see how we get inflation. For that to happen you need jobs and spending. Decreasing government spending and decreasing jobs will lead to a recession/depression . You may get worthless money eventually but the U.S is the best option in the short run. My bet is on depression it’s been happening since 2008…. And people are about to feel it soon.
Although I am not sure what the bitcoin game is going to be to manipulate the currency
I don’t recall there being strong employment and strong spending growth recorded in Weimar Germany or, more recently, in Zimbabwe during the hyperinflationary currency collapses in those countries. Inflation is (as Milton Friedman memorably put it) ‘…always and everywhere a monetary problem’.
The more money the Govt borrows (and/or the Fed prints) into existence, the less each dollar is worth. Simple as that. Doesn’t matter what the real economy is doing, if the quantity of money increases faster than the volume of real things on which that money can be spent, then you have inflation.
A booming economy might allow larger expansion of the monetary base before inflation kicks in, and a weak economy less, but inevitably monetary growth will always, under the existing system, outpace real economic expansion.
As for D.O.G.E decreasing government spending – they can tinker around the edges, but since most Govt expenditure is not discretionary and cannot realistically be cut (welfare/military/interest payments etc), the impact on spending/borrowing and ultimately Fed money printing will be minimal.
You say:
“The more money the Govt borrows (and/or the Fed prints) into existence, the less each dollar is worth. Simple as that.”
I think that this is close to true now, but I don’t think it has always been true. The difference is whether the increased US borrowing can push the world economy along enough to raise demand for goods and services, and at the same time more fossil fuels can be extracted at a low enough price.
At one time, the process worked, but it doesn’t any more. This is why it is very confusing. Oil supply and coal supply cannot be ramped up cheaply.
Printing more money is fine and indeed necessary as long as the real economy is growing.
Correct but my point is that growth in the monetary base must not exceed the growth in the real economy or the result is, inevitably, inflation.
The Gold standard had the inherent benefit of providing a real-world link between the two since gold has to be found, mined, refined etc. – all of which are real-world activities, using real resources. Quantity of Gold, as money, therefore increased roughly at the pace of the real economy since the same factors that drove one (technological advances, energy availability etc) also drove the other.
I had posted this in earlier articles on this blog . If DOGE succeeds { which it won’t] then see a fast collapse . Further please note DOGE will be an advisory body . It cannot carry out legislative work which is the function of the Congress .
https://www.collapse2050.com/financial-collapse-within-18-months/
Lol. She was able to accept the election outcome after only 2 days of headaches! She claims to be a “hardened” tough person and this certainly proves it!
>> November 5th has come and gone. After two days of a dread-driven headache, I accepted the outcome. Being collapse-aware has hardened me
The gist of this is that getting rid of major functions of the central government, or even replacing current civil service hires with untrained political hires could destabilize the system. We need all of this “demand,” even if it comes from printed money.
Somehow the Central Government has to shrink, eventually. I don’t know when or how. All of the Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (partly paid by states) payments are a huge problem.
The money spent on medical community isn’t necessarily a sunk cost. It provides jobs and income for many industries. Money sent overseas in the form of weapons and bombs is lost. Shutting down overseas spending would help the U.S but hurt the rest of the world but it is an interconnected system….a leak here… too much pressure there etc.
Thank you for the new post.
I worry with economic contraction; the wrong people will take the blame. I view our upcoming president would rather have us blame immigrants, the poor, and racial minorities than understand the real problem with resource depletion.
Scapegoats are always convenient!
wit82 I fail to understand what you said. What do you mean wrong people will take the blame? If humans reproduce irresponsibly, they are the ones to blame. Immigrants, poor and racial minorities are low IQ and breed a lot but they don’t really consume much resources relative to a westerner. Westerners had a baby boom, so they should take the brunt of the blame, yet from a utilitarian point of view only westerners and some asians can maintain a civilization – so they should get the majority of resources, yet resource depletion is a global issue and would happen one way or another regardless but it could be postponed a thousand years or more if the population was small or stopped being so greedy, so it is the blame of the humans that are overbreeding — is it not???
I mean as a society we will punish those with least political power while not realizing we are dealing with a geologic problem that is not the fault of the populations we are scapegoating.
I think you are right. Those with the least political power will be scapegoated. These people are often the poorest.
Lazy Americans will be blamed. Those slackers with only 2 jobs.
Thank you for a new entry Gail. I know I speak for many when I say how much I appreciate your work! Happy New Year to you and OFW folks!
You are welcome!
Here is a video from a TV Show on Paramount+, “LANDMAN”. Chris Martenson posted this in his forecast. It is a must watch because in 5 mins, lead actor Billy Bob Thorton destroys a person who believes in Clean Energy and how fossil fuels is destroying the world. What I love about the show is how it shows the dirty/violent side of the Oil business.
He gives her a dose of reality in a witty way by destroying the Wind/Solar/Clean/Green energy beliefs.
Different approach to explaining the issue. I have seen oil extraction use solar panels to keep monitoring equipment operating. Wind turbines to power the wells is a different idea. If intermittent power is OK, it seems to work.
I found that clicking the “Watch on YouTube” link worked. I couldn’t get it to work otherwise.
Mr landman needs a bit of a dose of reality himself. Earths life support systems are teetering on collapse because of him and the product he’s hawking. It’s nothing personal. It’s just physics.
Nope
humankind now lives on oil, and demands more
ol’ billybob is just meeting demand, just like he says—and there really is no alternative.
assume the snake thing was just staged though—childish
Yup 100%. Love how he gives a dose of reality to a “Greenie”. I’m shocked the screenwriters were allowed to expose the truth.
Stop oil production now and see how long you live.
Yeah will have already seen this someone posted it about a month ago
Chris Martenson posted his forecast as well and energy going forward is a huge problem. A commenter posted an X-tweet where Eric Schmidt says that we could run out of energy in the US by 2028 because of the US energy demands from AI and Data Centers.
This seems to be a link to Chris Martenson’s predictions. They seem to be quite closely related to mine.
https://peakprosperity.com/my-top-predictions-for-energy-interest-rates-and-the-economy/
I think that data centers create a problem for electricity. I don’t think we have a way to work around this problem in the short term. It may very well be that electricity supply outages could happen by 2028 because of inadequate electricity supply for everything, including data centers.
“inadequate electricity supply for everything, ”
A lot of data centers on the grid for training AIs is actually good for system stability. Training can be interrupted and the data center turned off when the grid is under stress.
Cost is relatively small.
It would seem like data center power could be “interruptible,” as you suggest. Run your AI model when it is not terribly hot or cold outside.
“posted his forecast as well”
It could go the other way as well. They build the massive data centers and the power plants, then some dweeb from China figures out how to reduce the power consumption by a factor of 10,000. (They have already reduced it by a factor of 200.) Too much power drives down the cost of electricity which has been overbuilt.
Not a prediction, just trying to anticipate the way a system behaves.
No look up Jevon’s paradox
“No look up Jevon’s paradox”
You might be right. It could be there is no limit to the amount of computation an AI can soak up.