As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
People have a misimpression regarding how world peak oil can be expected to behave. The world economy has continued to grow, but now it is beginning to move in the direction of contraction due to an inadequate supply of crude oil. In fact, it is not just an inadequate crude oil supply, but also an inadequate supply of coal (per person) and an inadequate supply of uranium.
We know that when a boat changes direction, this causes turbulence in the water. This is similar to the problems we are currently seeing in the world economy. Physics dictates that the economy needs to shrink in size to match its energy resources, but no country wants to be a part of this shrinkage. This indirectly leads to major changes in elected leadership and to increased interest in war-like behavior. Strangely enough, it also seems to lead to higher long-term interest rates, as well.
In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall.
[1] I expect that the general trend in 2025 will be toward world recession.
With less oil (and coal and uranium) relative to population, the world can be expected to produce fewer goods and services per person. In some sense, people will generally become poorer. For example, fewer people will be able to afford new cars or new homes.
This trend toward lower purchasing-power tends to be concentrated in certain groups such as young people, farmers, and recent immigrants. As a result, older people who are well-off or firmly established may be able to mostly ignore this issue.
While the shift toward a poorer world has partially been hidden, it has been a huge factor in allowing Donald Trump to be voted back into power. Major shifts in leadership are taking place elsewhere, as well, as an increasing share of citizens become unhappy with the current situation.
[2] Many governments will try to hide recessionary tendencies by issuing more debt to stimulate their economies.
In the past, adding debt was found to be effective way of stimulating the world economy because energy supplies supporting the world economy were not seriously constrained. It was possible to add new energy supplies, quite inexpensively. The combination of additional inexpensive energy supplies and additional “demand” (provided by the added debt) allowed the total quantity of goods and services produced to be increased. Once energy supplies started to become seriously constrained (about 2023), this technique started to work far less well. If energy production is constrained, the likely impact of added debt will be added inflation.
The problem is that if added government debt doesn’t really add inexpensive energy, it will instead create more purchasing power relative to the same number, or a smaller number, of finished goods and services available. I believe that in 2025, we are heading into a situation where ramping up governmental debt will mostly lead to inflation in the cost of finished goods and services.
[3] Energy prices are likely to remain too low for fossil fuel and uranium producers to raise investments from their current low levels.
Recession and low prices tend to go together. While there may be occasional spikes in oil and other energy prices, 2025 is likely to bring oil and other energy prices that are, on average, no higher than those of 2024, adjusted for the overall increase in prices due to inflation. With generally low prices, producers will cut back on new investment. This will cause production to fall further.
[4] I expect “gluts” of many energy-related items in 2025.
Gluts are related to recession and low prices for producers. The underlying problem is that a significant share of the population finds that finished goods, made with energy products and investment at current interest rates, are too expensive to buy.
Even farmers are affected by low prices, just as they were back at the time of the Great Depression. We can think of food as an energy product that is eaten by people. Farmers find that their return on farm investment is too low, and that their implied wages are low. Low income for farmers around the world feeds back through the system as low buying power for new farm equipment, and for buying goods and services in general.
In 2025, I expect there will be a glut of crude oil due to a lack of purchasing power of many poor people around the world. My forecast is similar to the forecast of the IEA that predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025. Also, a December 2024 article in mining.com says, “A glut of coal in China is set to push falling prices even lower.”
Even wind turbines and solar panels can reach an oversupply point. According to one article, number of Chine solar panel builders seems to be far too high for world demand, leading to a potential shake out. As the share of wind and solar power added to the electric grid increases, the frequency of low or negative payment for wholesale electric power increases. This makes adding more wind turbines and solar panels problematic, after a certain point. We don’t yet have a cost-effective way of storing intermittent electricity for months on end. This seems to be part of the reason why there recently were no bidders for producing more offshore wind power in Denmark.
[5] I expect long-term interest rates to remain high. This will be a problem for new investments of all kinds and for governmental borrowing.
In Section 2 of this post, I tried to explain that a peak-oil impact is likely to be inflation. This occurs because ramping up debt to try to stimulate the economy no longer works to get additional cheap energy products from the ground. Instead of getting as many finished goods and services as hoped for, the added debt tends to produce inflation instead.
I believe that we are reaching a stage of fossil-fuel depletion where it is becoming increasingly difficult to ramp up production, even with added investment. Because of the added debt added in an attempt to work around depletion, inflation in the price of finished goods and services can be expected. Investors are beginning to see long-term inflation as a likely problem. As a result, they are starting to demand higher long-term interest rates to compensate for the expected decrease in buying power.
Figure 2 shows that US long-term interest rates have varied widely. There was a period of generally dropping long-term interest rates from 1981 to 2020. Starting in late 2020, interest rates began to rise; in 2023 and 2024 they have been in the 4% to 5% range. These relatively high rates are occurring because lenders are demanding higher long-term interest rates in response to higher inflation rates.
Because of inflationary pressures, I expect that long-term interest rates will tend to stay at today’s high level in 2025; they may even rise further. These continued high interest rates will become a problem for many families wanting to purchase a home because US home mortgage rates rise and fall with US 10-year interest rates. Often families are faced with both high home prices and high interest rates. This combination makes mortgage costs a problem for many families.
Governments are also adversely affected. They tend to hold large amounts of debt that they have accumulated over a period or years. Up until 2020, much of this added debt often was at a very low interest rate. As more long-term debt at higher interest rates is added, annual interest rate payments tend to rise rapidly. This can cause a need to raise taxes. Japan, especially, would be affected by higher interest rates because of its high level of government debt, relative to GDP.
Higher interest rates will also raise costs for citizens trying to finance the purchase of homes, and for investors wanting to build wind turbines or solar panels. In fact, investment in any kind of factory, pipelines, or electricity transmission will tend to become more expensive.
In a sense, we seem to be seeing the peak oil problem shifting in a way that affects interest rates and the economy in general. Either higher interest rates or higher oil prices will tend to push the economy toward recession. We tend to look for rising prices to signal an oil supply problem, but perhaps that only works when there is excessive demand. If the problem is really inadequate oil supply, perhaps we should look for higher long-term interest rates, instead.
[6] Industry around the world is likely to be hit especially hard by recessionary tendencies.
Industry requires investment. Higher interest rates make new industrial investment more expensive. Industry is also a heavy user of energy products. Putting these observations together, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if new industrial investment is one of the first places to be cut back because of peak oil supply.
The original 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. The variables in this model were recently recalibrated in the article, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model.” Based on the detailed data given in the endnotes to the article, I calculated the expected industrialization per capita shown in Figure 3.
Based on Figure 3, this model shows that industrialization per person reached a peak in 2017. Peak industrialization (total, not per capita) occurred in 2018, which coincides with peak crude oil extraction (not per capita).
The model seems to suggest that after an inflection point in 2023 (that is 2024 and after), industrialization will start to fall more steeply. The model shows a decrease in production per capita of 4.1% in 2024 and of 5.3% in 2025. Such decreases would push the world economy toward recession.
The model suggests that people, on average, are getting poorer in terms of the quantity of goods and services they can afford to buy. New cars, motorcycles, and homes are becoming less affordable. Heavily industrialized countries, such as China, South Korea, and Germany are likely to be especially affected by headwinds to industrialization. I expect that the economic problems in these countries will continue and are likely to worsen in 2025.
[7] The US has tried to isolate itself from this nearly worldwide recession. I expect that during 2025, the US will increasingly slip into recession, as well.
There are several reasons for this belief:
(a) The US is heavily dependent upon imports of raw material. China is restricting exports of critical minerals used by the US. This will make it very difficult or impossible to ramp up high tech industries as planned.
(b) The US is heavily dependent on Russia for supplies of enriched uranium. Any plan for added nuclear electricity needs to consider where the uranium to power these plants will come from. It also needs to consider how this uranium will be enriched to the required concentration of uranium-235.
(c) If the US can ramp up crude oil and natural gas production, this can perhaps counter this trend toward US and world recession. Unfortunately, recent US oil supply has not been ramping up; instead its production has been fairly flat. Natural gas production has actually been lower since February 2024. Plans have been made to rapidly ramp up US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but these plans cannot work if the US natural gas supply is already decreasing.
(d) The US government has had an advantage in borrowing because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, the US is, in some sense, the first borrower, pulling the rest of the world along. The US, by making its short term interest rates higher than those of many other countries, was able to largely escape recession 2023 and 2024. Additional investment was attracted to the US by these higher interest rates. But the US cannot follow this strategy indefinitely. For one thing, a high US dollar handicaps exports. For another, interest costs on government debt become burdensome.
(e) Donald Trump has plans to close inefficient parts of government. These changes, if enacted, will reduce “demand” within the economy because workers in these sectors will lose their jobs. Over the longer term, these changes might be beneficial, but over the short term, they are likely to be recessionary.
(f) It is difficult for the US to do much better than the rest of the world. If the rest of the world is in recession, the US will tend to head in that direction, as well.
[8] I expect more conflict in 2025, but today’s wars will not look much like World War I or World War II.
Today, not many countries are able to build huge fleets of fighter airplanes. Even building drones and bombs seems to require supply lines that extend around the world. So, instead, wars are being fought in non-military ways, such as with sanctions and tariffs.
I expect that this trend away from direct military conflict will continue, with more novel approaches such as internet interference and stealth damage to infrastructure taking place instead.
I do not expect that nuclear bombs will be used, even when there is direct conflict between powerful adversaries. For one thing, uranium in these bombs is needed for other purposes. For another, there is too much chance of retaliation.
[9] I expect many types of capital gains will be low in 2025.
The situation we are facing now is the opposite of the drop in long-term interest rates observed between 1981 and 2020, in Figure (2), above. This historical drop in interest rates made it possible for businesses to more easily finance new investments. It also made it possible for individual citizens to be able to afford more homes and cars. It should not be surprising that this period has been a time of rising stock market prices, especially in the United States.
The world’s economic problem is that it no longer has the tailwind of falling long-term interest rates. Instead, rising long-term interest rates are becoming a headwind. Home prices are un-affordably high for most potential buyers at today’s interest rates. A similar problem faces those hoping to purchase agricultural equipment and farmland at today’s high prices and high interest rates.
We should not be surprised if home and farm prices stabilize and begin to fall. Prices of shares of stock are likely to encounter similar headwinds. Prices of derivative investments may perform even worse than the shares themselves.
Recently, a great deal of the strength of the US market has been in a few stocks. Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to very quickly provide a lot of benefit to the stock market as a whole for this to change. I cannot imagine this happening. With the US slipping toward recession, I expect that the US stock market will at best plateau in 2025.
[10] With less energy available and higher interest rates on government debt, I expect to see more government organizations disbanding.
It takes energy, directly and indirectly, to operate any kind of governmental organization. Eliminating governmental organizations is one way of saving energy. This is what happened when the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. I would think that parallel kinds of changes could start happening in the next few years, in many parts of the world.
At some time, perhaps as soon as 2025, the European Union could collapse. If things are going badly for many member countries, they will be less willing to support the European Union with their tax revenues. Other organizations that seem like they could be in peril include NATO and the World Trade Organization.
In some ways, such shrinkage would be in parallel with Trump’s plan for eliminating unnecessary governmental organizations within the United States. All these organizations require energy; cutting their number would go some way toward reducing crude oil and other energy consumption.
[11] It is possible that the world economy will eventually get itself out of its apparent trend toward recession, but I am afraid this will happen long after 2025.
We know that the world economy tends to operate in cycles. We would like to believe that the apparent current down-cycle is just temporary, but we can’t know this for sure. Physics tells us that we need energy supplies of the right kind for any action that contributes to GDP. Running short of energy supplies is therefore a very worrisome condition.
We also know that there are major inefficiencies in current approaches. For example, oil extraction leaves much of the oil resource in place. In theory, AI could greatly improve extraction techniques.
We also know that uranium consumption is terribly inefficient. M. King Hubbert thought that nuclear energy using uranium had amazing potential, but most of this potential remains untapped. Perhaps AI could help in this regard, also. If nothing else, perhaps recycling spent fuel could be made less expensive and problematic.
We can’t know what lies ahead. There may be a “religious” ending to our current predicament that we are discounting that is actually the “right story.” Or there may be a “technofix” solution that allows us to avert collapse or catastrophe. But for now, how the current down-cycle will end remains a major cause for concern.
Flying below the radar .
” India . FX reserves fell from $704 billion in Sept 2024 to $627 in Jan 15th 2025. What happened to $70 billion in just 4 months? It was spent by the Central Bank to buy dollars in the market to prevent devaluation but still the rupee went from Rs 79 to Rs 86 against the dollar. Now the Central Bank has quit interfering, it was futile. $627 billion might seem like a lot but India has a trade deficit of about $25 billion PER MONTH and this was when it was getting cheap oil from Russia. How cheap? So cheap that the share of Russian imports from 1% to 38%. Now with the new Trump sanctions it has placed emergency orders with the ME for 8 million barrels for immediate delivery and asked for tenders for 20 million barrels for future delivery. India depends for 90% of its oil requirements. I will not comment on the domestic politics because that is explosive. This is like a bug looking for a windshield to crash.
P,S ; Russian oil was coming at $50-55 and now the price is $80. Imports are about 4-4.5 mbpd.
Eating grapes grown in South Africa , imported and packed and Germany and delivered to a food store in Belgium . Ridiculous . As I posted in response to drb ” I will ride the tiger till possible ” . 😂
Grape season has come and gone here, there is only a large red grape priced now at close to meat ($3.9/kg), of course coming from Iran. during peak season there is an amazing selection of grapes. we will soon kiss goodbye (all of us) to southern hemisphere fruit. the late freeze this spring in Russia has also decimated the pear crop, which have jumped 50%+ in price. that leaves abundant citrus from Uzbekistan, kiwi and apples, and persimmons, but my two favorite winter fruits are gone. the mangoes are good but finding ripe ones is a chore, and the avocadoes have a long way to go to reach the consistency of US avocado. drinking a lot of clabbered raw milk to keep my electrolytes up. things will improve a bit once the INSTC becomes fully operational.
grape exporters are exporting their water resources
Does anyone think Tulsi Gabbard will be confirmed by the senate? I’m guessing no.
I think she will make it just like Hegseth . For the moment at least DJT is on the roll .
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/01/23/congress/gabbard-senate-hearing-00200248
It’s an even toss. Every other true reformist has been kicked out, but it is also true that the guys Norman likes are being routed. Mette Fredricksen is the most masculine of the bunch.
naked greed—you can never satisfy greed
it’s 1938 again—give him what he wants, and he will be satisfied
watch him gather round only those who owe their lives and living to him
people who will do exactly what he orders them to do—no matter what.
release your own private army of convicted thugs who will obey—because they owe their lives to him.
ignore me—i’m a nobody from nowhere.
people far cleverer than me are flashing red warning lights—i find it fascinating on here that gullibility is flourishing.
unaware that you are witnessing what actually happens to a species at the tipping point of energy decline.—they promise themselves it isnt happening.—and gullible fools wnat to believe. they cant face reality either.
just as i said it would.
yep, 1938 was not peak coal for germany, it was PEAK NAKED GREED! Keep the insights coming granpa. we are going to rewrite the history of world resources. it’s all about holding hands around the fire.
yup
1938 was greed—as was the expansion of the British Empire from the 1700s onwards.
and numerous others.—all ok as long as cheap fuel was there in abundance.
The USA is living at the end of its empire—not easy to live through.—hence the current situation there
it was viable as long as fuel was available—now it isnt, so i watch the trivialities of blame apportioned to this politician or that—when we all suffer from the same affliction.
self delusion is fascinating to watch.
its critical the rember that the average person will do anything to preserve their comfortable status quo
bear that in mind—and trumps posturing and agression starts to make sense
What would DJT want?
Money? Well he lives very well in FL. Has a mansion in DC and no longer needs to fly in a 757 but has moved up to a 747 with transports moving his limousines to various locations. Drivers are of course included. Suspect Melania doesn’t have to dust.
A beautiful wife? Well three at last count, all very attractive which some think is a trait for overall fitness, children with all of them.
Children? Well 5 of those.
Grandchildren? Well, ten of those.
Job after retirement from real estate: seems twice as President of US. Told it has an adequate pension program, probably has healthcare supplemental to Medicare.
I doubt he is very greedy at all. Perhaps he wants to be remembered as one of the great Presidents of the US.
Yes, he is already wealthy in many, many ways. He has faced reality in the attempts made to kill him as well as the lawfare. He is one tough guy.
Like him or not, he will go down in the history books and he will be judged by historians. He got to a place where he will be worth taking time to judge.
I hope it all works; your ideas are far too bleak for me.
Dennis L.
I think Norm is trying to establish the maximum koumbaya principle.
major conflicts always start with the pride of one man—check your history books
greed cannot be satisfied
history confirms that
Musk confirms that—he sees himself as the first $trillionaire—can anyone dispute that?
Rockefeller was another prime example, he wanted control of ALL the world’s oil, for no better reason than he could—it’s an inner thing, rather than actual need.
If Germany had ”won” WW2—they would have expanded until they ran into Japan comining the other way—human drive.
Trump cannot use the military to invade, so he uses commercial threats.
“greed cannot be satisfied”
If you look at it from evolutionary psychology and selection for the drive needed to obtain wealth (and be able to feed your children through the famines) there is no reason for greed, in the sense for desiring wealth, to have an upper limit.
Reality and life span limit wealth. It will be interesting to see what immortals do.
keith—you are using the ethos of the hunter-gatherer society—that falls apart when you bring money into the equation…which is what the human species has done—
money is a call on stored energy, most people want to have a store of energy in reserve…that is normal–it is why we have banks.
..with musk et al—that inclination is magnified out of all reasonable proportion.—simply because it is possible to do that, through our commercial environment.
The entire world.
exactly
so many in history have sought world domination
there are many ways to imagine doing it
Hegseth has been put in charge of the military
time to start asking if American soldiers will obey illegal orders
‘cos thats the way things are headed folks
just like i said they would
What illegal orders do you have in mind? Enforcement of dubious injections as a condition of employment?
extend your thought processes a bit wider
ive been warning for years that the donny will collect around him only those loyal. to hem personally.
laugh all you want
while you can
I am actually struck by the variety of viewpoints. Hegseth yes, but also Gabbard.
But then of course those who dislike Hegseth don’t like her either.
This would be an absolute first in the history of the USA. It never, ever happened that a president issued illegal orders, to soldiers or others. Take for example Biden’s dealings with regard to Burisma, hookers, drugs and his son. This is the ultra-scrupolous behavior Trump ought to aspire to.
biden dealing with hookers??—thats a first, sources please?
It’s amazing what you are able to see from your little perch in a small island off Europe. Illegal orders? wow! to soldiers? we are talking about the most moral army in the world, or maybe second.
My question ? What army ? The LGBTQ gang marching in stilettos ? The killing rate is so high NATO would not last a week in a field war . Nuclear ? Now that is something I can only pray does not happen .
Only the Salvation Army is more moral.
A GI before he goes to sleep asks himself two questions. How moral was I today? How can I be more moral tomorrow?
all stuff we would not be privy to, where it not for Norm’s amazing hindsight.
“If it’s illegal we can do it immediately. If it’s unconstitutional it takes a little longer”
– attributed to Henry K.
Excellent example of the use of wrestling style “promos” to prime audiences for the drama of Kayfabe. The difference is the electorate still trusts the process and is mostly ignorant of elaborate stagecraft and propaganda including shared enemies, the heel and the face archetypes used to bamboozle voters in both venues.
Video of Trump taking down WWF Vince McMahon.
https://youtu.be/jkghtyxZ6rc?si=JQsTFEeM8PwCJ6LF
https://coronacircus.com/2020/06/02/welcome-to-kayfabe/
The emotions on both Sides show how akin to Wrestling it all is.
spit shine your crystal ball soothsayer
training references to the Tuskegee airmen have been removed,
all i do is call up available information without hysteria—-dismissing it is your prerogative.
its what i base my forecasts on, so far i havent done too badly—can’t be right all the time.
Today is the last day
Trump finally changed the name of the highest mountain in North America back to McKinley, from Denali.
He should have done it during his first stint.
Denali is some eskimo word. (I don’t use terms like inuit.) What stake the eskimos, the indians, etc have in civilization? None.
They do not have a stake and they should be thankful that they were not treated like the Ainus and the Okinawans under Japanese rule. (Virtually all ainus now at least have some Japanese ancestors, and the battle of Okinawa mostly wiped out pure Okinawans)
I do not like naming things after the deities of some primitive tribes. They are unpronounceable, and make astronomy a farce. That is the result of sensitivism. All the ridiculous names of astronomy should be renamed into names civilized peopled could pronounce.
Is this report by ReMix news true:
https://rmx.news/article/gazprom-in-turmoil-forced-to-hike-prices-on-russians-in-the-middle-of-winter/
Gazprom in turmoil, forced to hike prices on Russians in the middle of winter
Gas in Russia used to be cheap, but everything changed after the invasion of Ukraine
Can’t tell you one way or another because here everyone heats with wood. will report.
Young couple here just bought 12 acres of forested land to build and I asked the husband if they are putting a woodstove in the basement. He says no with a frown they are going with gas fireplace. He gew up in a rural area and introduced his new wife to huntimg whitetail deer. His wifes parents are suburbanites who are helping with the design process.
Agree with you , Replenish . City dwellers think gas heating is a birthright however it is different in the rural areas . In Hungary it was wood and in Belgium it is propane tanks . I see them everywhere . Energy illiteracy or energy ignorance ? Helpless or hopeless ? Seeking answers since 2005 .
So from the article gas did not increase 2015-2022, and now it has increased 37%. It is not clear what costs are because they are given in rubles per cft per 100 km. I do not know what to make of the 100 km. I can certainly say that in the last 18 months gas has kept pace with diesel, no more no less. The article laments the loss of economic growth, which was 4% last year and will be 2% in the next 24 months. well, at least there is growth. and most of the growth has been in the lowest salaries. worse comes to worse, Russians will have to stop heating their homes to 27C, and wear a sweater.
drb , I agree with you . I was in Budapest when the Berlin wall fell down . Russian gas and Ukrainian wheat was still flowing in East Europe . We use to open our windows when outside was snowing , heating was so cheap . Kenyer ( bread ) was so cheap the kids use to buy it , wet it and convert it into a football to play with . The stories I could tell but sigh ,— rust , depletion and aging don’t sleep and don’t spare . 😢
How China’s New AI Model DeepSeek Is Threatening U.S. Dominance
I will be flying home on Monday (getting home the same day I leave). It will be a few days after that before I can get a new post up.
Safe Journey home Gail!
Would like to hear your impressions from the trip if you would care to give them.
I don’t know why your video link isn’t showing up (at least for me, with this crumby internet service).
This is another view of DeepSeek.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/chinas-deepseek-bombshell-rocks-trumps-500b-ai-boondoggle/
What you say suggests it doesn’t work very well. But if it works well enough for certain applications, it may remove market share for US AI applications.
I didn’t say that DeepSeek is bad. On the contrary, the video I shared also explains that DeepSeek is quite good. However, it may not be very effective in criticizing certain issues related to the Chinese government and China’s actions, and it might act with bias in this regard. That’s what I mentioned.
But the most important issue is how long these things will take. I don’t think it will last for a very long time.
It must also be stated that, in an environment where scientific research has become so deeply corrupted, I remain uncertain about the extent to which artificial intelligence can provide meaningful solutions.
Rosenberg, A. (2015, October 22). Corporate Counterfeit Science: Both Wrong and Dangerous. Union of Concerned Scientists Blog.
https://blog.ucsusa.org/andrew-rosenberg/corporate-counterfeit-science-both-wrong-and-dangerous-152/
Brainard, J. (2023, May 9). Fake Scientific Papers Are Alarmingly Common. Science.
https://www.science.org/content/article/fake-scientific-papers-are-alarmingly-common
Morreim, E. H. (2021, July 1). Corporations, High-Stakes Biomedical Research, and Research Misconduct: Yes They Can (and Sometimes Do). Journal of Law and the Biosciences, 8(1), lsab014.
https://academic.oup.com/jlb/article/8/1/lsab014/6312437?login=false
it can’t
but you cant separate keith from his calculator
‘Dam for a dam’: India, China edge towards a Himalayan water war
24 Jan 2025
Despite local protests, India is building a giant hydro dam on the Siang River to counter a Chinese dam – the world’s largest – upstream in Tibet. Millions of people in India and Bangladesh could be hurt.
The new mega-dam in Medog county over the Yarlung Zangbo will dwarf even the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydro dam, in central China. Beijing says that the project will be vital in meeting its net-zero emissions goal by 2060, and Chinese news agencies reported that the dam will cost $137bn. There is no immediate clarity on how many people will be displaced on the Chinese side.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/1/24/dam-for-a-dam-india-china-edge-towards-a-himalayan-water-war
Hydroelectric dams tend to take water supply away from one country and give it to another. Needless to say, this tends to be contentious. I would not be surprised about a water war.
I asked this question to DeekSeek, and it responded in detail as follows: “Sorry, I’m not sure how to approach this type of question yet. Let’s chat about math, coding, and logic problems instead!” I asked a few times and got similar answers, but maybe I couldn’t quite phrase the question correctly.
I had asked about the negative impacts of this dam and China’s approach.
I fo not know of China’s ability to build a dam but I know India does not have the ability to build a dam in the region . I have been to Arunachal Pradesh . It’s infra is ‘zero’ . Roads have to be built , cement and steel etc to be transported from Calcutta , manpower etc . This is just jaw boning from India of that I can confirm . Relax .
Interesting point!
Water shortage emerges as top environmental risk for India and the world over next two years
21 Jan 2025
Number of countries identifying water supply shortages as a top-five risk has surged from seven in 2024 to 27 in 2025
The 20th edition of the WEF’s annual Global Risks Report identifies India alongside Mexico, Morocco, Tunisia, and Uzbekistan as the five countries where water supply crises rank as the top immediate or short-term risks.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/water/water-shortage-emerges-as-top-environmental-risk-for-india-and-the-world-over-next-two-years
The Biggest Threats Facing the World in the Next Decade (According to the World Economic Forum)
1. Extreme weather events
2. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
3. Critical changes to Earth systems
4. Natural resource shortages
5. Adverse outcomes of AI technologies
6. Pollution
7. Involuntary migration and displacement
8. Misinformation and disinformation
9. Societal polarization
10. Inequality
https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/
The ranking in the visual reflects the differences in risk perceptions among various groups (civil society, international organizations, academia, government, and the private sector) and may vary accordingly.
you forgot greed
greed that takes over when the balance of world commerce is spinning out of control.
the greed that gives you a 400x $ billionaire—wanting more.
the greed that infects everyone it touches—that they too can hare in it—capitalism makes more of everything…..except that there is no infinite growth, so the gullible vote for more of the same.
it makes for interesting observation
Breaking down Trump’s executive order on Crypto
Trump signs order to declassify JFK, MLK and RFK assassination files
I wonder what will come out of this. I cannot watch YouTube videos on this internet service, but we have all seen allegations that these were “inside jobs.”
I’m amazed he didnt open files on WTC and the moonlandings
he obviously hasn’t been on OFW lately
Denmark in ‘crisis mode’ after ‘horrendous’ phone call from Trump demanding to buy Greenland
24 January 2025
US president spoke to Danish premier for 45 minutes last week and made clear he wanted to place Greenland under American control
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/01/24/denmark-crisis-horrendous-phone-call-trump-buy-greenland/
Perhaps Trump is working on yet another crisis, that will push down oil demand for some part of the world, and allow the US get a bigger share of the total.
The year 1970 was peak US oil supply. It did nothing to dent world oil supply.
The years 1973-1974 were the initial years with the price spikes. They did practically nothing to reduce world oil supply.
Paulson raised US interest rates to 18%, in the years leading up to 1981. This pushed the whole world into recession. It got the world to work even harder in moving oil uses to cheaper types of energy (coal, natural gas, uranium). This did temporarily reduce oil use.
2008 was the time of the Great Recession. This reduced the GDP growth rate of Western economies in subsequent years. It helped keep oil use down, indirectly.
2020 was the year the response to Covid began. People started working from home more, and traveling less on International flights. This is when the big drop in oil consumption (per capita) began.
Maybe Trump is working on a different kind of crisis that will seen more oil to the US, and less to other parts of the world.
Yes, It maybe the United States is facing more challenges in energy than ever before.This seems like a more plausible scenario to me.
If you are not absolutely horrified about what’s going on these days in Canada, then you have not been paying attention.
======
A prominent expert is warning the public that the Canadian government is now euthanizing mentally ill and disabled citizens as part of a “eugenics” agenda that has been thinly disguised as “assisted suicide.”
The chilling warning was issued by Kelsi Sheren, a military veteran-turned-anti-euthanasia activist.
Specifically, Sheren is sounding the alarm about Canada’s taxpayer-funded Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) program.
During a whistleblowing new interview with Triggernometry, Sheren said:
“MAiD is medical assistance in dying, but let’s call it what it is.
“It’s eugenics. It’s not MAiD. It’s eugenics.
“And the reason I say that so emphatically is because the statistics around who is using medical assistance and dying versus who is being euthanized are radically different.”
MAiD was originally launched by the Canadian government in 2016 to help terminally ill patients end their suffering.
However, Sheren is among several experts warning that MAiD has morphed into something more sinister.
The “assisted suicide” program has now become a system that increasingly targets people with mental health challenges, disabilities, and other non-terminal conditions.
Essentially, the citizens targeted for euthanasia are those requiring long-term care who are considered a burden on Canada’s taxpayer-funded socialized healthcare system.
“We had a girl in British Columbia last year… walked into Vancouver hospital,” Sheren continues.
“She was suicidal…
“She was met by the doctors who told her she couldn’t see psychiatrists for six months…
“And then she was then sat down while the nurse put her hand on her knee and said, ‘Have you heard of MAID?’ to a vulnerable person who just expressed that she was suicidal.”
Sheren asserts that this practice is the same eugenics program pioneered by the Nazis.
The controversial historical practice aims to “improve” society by controlling who gets to live or reproduce.
Eugenics was even popular among American progressives until it became taboo following World War Two.
“This is a movement to remove the vulnerable, disabled, liabilities, burdens on society, full stop,” Sheren notes.
“That’s what this is,” she emphasizes.
“This is not compassion and care dying with dignity or empathy.
“This is, let’s remove the problems from society.”
“We are turning healthcare practitioners who went into the practice to help people,” Sheren adds.
“We are turning them into everyday serial killers.
“And there is a moral issue to that, that those doctors, those family members, were not like, not ready, not trained to handle at all.”
This is a huge change compared to what we are used to.
But the response to covid seemed to ramp up deaths in the elderly in nursing homes. The use of respirators with wrong settings and heavy sedation were problems, even before the vaccine came along.
Any person looking at the data can see that we are running into a “too much population for resources” problem. Hence, ending one’s own life is not viewed as negatively as in the past.
I’ve read that old Eskimos would go out adrift on an ice floe when they became a burden, some tribes (was it Africa?) would leave an old person under a tree with some bananas and then keep traveling, and that some native american tribes would kill babies to manage the population against food supply.
This has been clear for a while. There were other reports prior, one was even posted here. The fleeing Pravy Sektor guys will find themselves right at home in Canada.
Tim,
Into the flood again,
same old s*** it was back then..
In reply to a few comments, Art Berman denies that his views have changed …
https://www.artberman.com/blog/lazy-thinking-how-memes-get-oil-all-wrong/
IMO this guy found out how to get paid being an opinionated expert crank. When he made disparaging comments about Gail saying that she is probably not qualified on these issues I tuned him out.
Berman has always confused me. Isnt he saying that …. the earth is swimming in oil, but its getting harder to get to? I always thought that was his position. Did that change?
Sure… We keep adding more oil to the proven reserves, but if it’s 5 km below ice floes, then it really doesn’t count?
Mr George Kaplan on the Berman post . Art is getting a lot of flak on his post .
” Some thoughts on Art Berman’s latest blog.
Berman has got a good few things wrong in his time. He wrote something about incorrect measurement of tank levels which, as someone who has worked at a tank farm, I can say was utter drivel. He’s also not very good when it comes down to. molecules and chemistry. In his latest blog I had some trouble following what he was actually saying. A meme is spread by imitation, whereas some one looking at an oil production bell curve for a well, field, basin, country etc. will conclude that depletion is going on, which limits the maximum production, and it must also apply globally. They don’t need to be influenced by anyone else. Depletion is a fact of life and an observable phenomenon.
Discoveries, and hence reservoir additions, have only gone in cycles as new regions have been opened to exploration and exploitation. It’s questionable whether there are any such left of any significance. Conventional discoveries have been slowly declining this century and a linear trend would put them at zero sometime in the early thirties.
“Technically recoverable” is a meaningless category and just confuses things. For instance there is enough reduced (i.e. “burnable”) carbon in the environment to use up all the oxygen in the air more than ten times but is never going to be burnt and neither is technically recoverable oi.
NGLs are not oil but fall within “total liquids”. They are produced as a byproduct of natural gas and would not be able to power civilisation as it is presently structured.
Overall global production is the sum of local production and is not evenly distributed. There may be large proportions of global reserves that are inaccessible locally because of political (e.g. Venezuela), environmental (e.g. the Arctic) or social (e.g. shale under Paris, reservoir under Bagdad) reasons.
We have a steadily falling EORI, currently averaging about twelve, and a lot lower for frontier discoveries. At about five companies won’t look very hard because the risk of dry holes is too great, with wells costing over a hundred million and the time cost of money maybe trebling that before any subsequent discovery will pay it back.
A better estimate for remaining reserves is probably Rystad, but even it has a large proportion of “undiscovered” in the Middle East. I think this is the only way to reconcile claimed reserves with observed production history. In every audited country reserves decline, but in unaudited OPEC they stay flat. There is no evidence that this “undiscovered” portion is being found or is even being looked for.
I think I got on Art Berman’s “wrong side” when I was editor at the Oil Drum, and Berman was submitting articles for review. I disagreed with some things, and he found this objectionable.
“about incorrect measurement of tank levels which, as someone who has worked at a tank farm, I can say was utter drivel. ”
No kidding. I know about tank gauging because I ran a programming project that used pagers to keep the pumpers informed about the situation in tank levels. (Having a tank overflow cost upwards of half a million in those days, and a gasoline component overflow killed a bunch of people on a freeway that went through that tank farm.)
The tank gauging was the primary input to the accounting model of the refinery. Getting an incorrect tank level would have been as bad as not knowing how much money you had in the bank.
Knowing chemistry is vital if you are trying to make sense in the energy business. If someone does not, I agree, it is hard to take them seriously.
You have it right on memes.
To a first approximation depletion does not matter. Eventually we have to get off oil, but oil so useful IC can’t do without it. So we have to make synthetic fuel. We know how to do that, but getting the cost down is hard. I have been working on this since 2008.
Something about Berman I don’t like. This was confirmed when he blocked Steve St Angelo from SRSroccoreport.com when Steve questioned Art about some of his opinions.
I just read the post and his comments. It seems Art jumped the shark and disavowed everything he’s published for decades, now saying there are 2 trillion barrels of accessible oil at today’s prices and with today’s technology. I can’t take that seriously. I don’t know if he got a tap on the shoulder or if he’s always been a fool or what … maybe the jab got him – he’s always ranting about climate change, after all; his brain must be fried.
Art drops this gem in the comments:
>> I’d recommend not worrying about when peak oil occurs. It’s an abstract concept that doesn’t really affect anything.
We will know it when we see it.
Dennis L.
Peak per capita crude oil hit in 2017. That was the year of the peak number of preschoolers, and probably the peak number of births. It seems to be about the time of peak automobiles per capita.
Peak per capita crude oil preceded the shut downs of 2020 by only a short time. China cut off its acceptance of most recycling effective 1/1/2018. This was effectively shutting down a fairly large industry in China. It also cut back the subsidies that ships carrying goods to the US or Europe could get by sending “recycling” in return.
The world started its shift to shutdown mode about 2017. The financial system has allowed a continuing rise in debt, so it has been hidden. It mainly shows up in unaffordability of housing and vehicles for the younger generation.
Gail, how can that be the case? Peak per capita in 2017? No way.
You yourself, if I recall correctly, showed a peak per capita of ~4 barrels per person per year circa 1970, a drop and then second peak again at ~4 barrels, and then a gradual decline to something like 3.5 in more recent years. I may have gotten the peak barrels wrong (maybe it was 4.2-4.5 or something) but the overall trend is as described.
Also, are you talking USA or global?
PS the second peak I mention was about 1980 and then (per capita) it was all downhill from there …
Now I’m questioning my memory, I could certainly be wrong.
I looked at the Statistical Review of World Energy, at the extraction of crude oil.
On a world basis, there was a slight pause in the growth of world oil supply in 1975. There was also a reduction of oil production when interest rates went almost to 18% in 1981. Eventually the Soviet Union collapsed. This was related to the lower oil production.
I am talking world peak crude oil per capita.
There may have been an earlier peak, back before 1973, but that was during the time when there was no attampt to conserve oil. For example, oil was burned to create electricity, when many other approaches could be used–nuclear, coal, natural gas. Cars in the US were overly large and not particularly fuel efficient. Homes were often heated with something close to diesel oil, when other fuels were available.
Once we were aware of a problem, oil consumption among the rich countries could be cut back greatly. The prevented there being a real problem.
We are dealing with a resource constrained world today. In fact, we have been trying to work around limited resources for quite a while, but we have been talking about “preventing climate change” instead of “keeping the world economy operating.” A major concern is that the financial system will start collapsing, if oil supply per capita is truly constrained.
“For example, oil was burned to create electricity, ”
For the simple reason that “bottom of the barrel resid was low cost.
“when many other approaches could be used–nuclear, coal, natural gas. ”
Nuclear takes a long time to build. Coal takes a lot of transport infrastructure. Before they figure out fracking for shale gas, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakota_Gasification_Company the government was worried about the natural gas supply to the point they put a couple of billion into this plant.
“Cars in the US were overly large and not particularly fuel efficient.”
True, though you could get a Volkswagen and many people did.
” Homes were often heated with something close to diesel oil, when other fuels were available.”
This was largely regional. When the price of heating oil went sky high, heating became unaffordable in New England. I don’t know how this has adjusted to the present time.
essentially—we burn 300 m yr old sunshine
to give us sunshine now
“300 m yr old sunshine”
If you take a larger view of things, the sunlight that comes down on cropland is around 1000 times larger than the 15 TW of coal, oil, nuclear, hydro, and everything else. If we can figure out how to use it, paving over 1% of croplands with PV will solve the energy problems.
The problem of finding a way to use intermittent PV looks like it is possible but complex. You want to run the F/T plants 24/7. This problem can be solved with large enough underground storage for syngas. Syngas can be made from intermittent power and trash, coal, or biomass.
The syngas generators have some positive pollution effects. They destroy plastics and persistent chemicals. But the engineering is complicated. A 3 GW induction furnace is 60 times larger than existing ones.
Gail, here is your own article (reposted on oilprice) that shows oil per capita globally peaked in 1970 and again in 1980, figure 2.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Developed-Economies-Could-Stagnate-As-Fossil-Fuels-Reach-Their-Limits.html
I was disagreeing with your statement in this thread that “Peak per capita crude oil hit in 2017.” I guess you are talking about a recent, local rather than global maximum/peak.
I’ll look at it more closely when I get home and have a decent internet connection. This one is off more than it is on, and it can’t handle anything big.
I think what happens is that crude oil consumption per capita is very flat. The big dip in crude oil production and consumption in 1981 was a result of the worldwide recession that came into place from the US raising interest rates to about 18%. With a closed down economy, not as much oil was required. Oil demand fell dramatically. Oil prices fell much lower, eventually squeezing out the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 (a whole decade after the spike in interest rates).
I should look at this more closely. Admittedly, my recent analyses only used recent data. A reduction in oil supply caused by intentionally putting the world economy into recession with 18% interest rates is quite different from the recent drop in oil supply, which is occurring because OPEC and others are cutting back in production because the world oil price is not high enough. Biden was admittedly trying to keep the oil price down by emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But each time is a little different.
Thank you.
Dennis L.
Yet you believe in starships which have not been to any stars as og now.
Yes very very strange. He totally changed his tune…. When you read the comment section he sounds like a grumpy old man disparaging anyone who comments. “Have you read my papers it’s all in there!”
I posted about it, but the post has gone to electron heaven. I said it had a distinct Ugo Bardi vibe. Plus he insulted Gail? He is dead to me.
I have been trying to let posts through, as soon as I can convince the internet to work correctly. For now, it seems to be working (but not well enough to open YouTubes, or many websites).
Ah, do not worry. This is one of many sites that intermittently does not work for me. And I have a one year old MacBook Pro. The internet is going to pot.
I can receive this site in two different ways: (a) As a list of comments, in the order they were made. Comments held for moderation are specially marked. (b) The way the site appears to viewers, with comments made in response to other comments.
The first of these two ways seems to be much more accessible with the weak signal I get. So if I have a signal at all, I can approve comments in moderation. But (while I am on this ship), I often have trouble seeing precisely what these comment are in response to. Normally, I can click on a comment and see what the comment is in response to. But if the system won’t let met look at posts with comments attached as the reader sees them, this doesn’t work.
Standard Chartered: U.S. Oil Production Growth To Decline In 2025
By Alex Kimani – Jan 08, 2025
Standard Chartered: the slowdown in U.S. oil production growth is set to continue in 2025 and 2026.
Standard Chartered: the U.S. slowdown and a long tail of declines will keep non-OPEC supply growth well below 1 mb/d over the next couple of years.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-US-Oil-Production-Growth-To-Decline-In-2025.html
“… the slowdown in U.S. oil production growth is set to continue in 2025 and 2026.”
“… the U.S. slowdown and a long tail of declines will keep non-OPEC supply growth well below 1 mb/d over the next couple of years.”
so there will still be some growth, just less growth.
got it.
thanks.
dont forget we have to sponsor more foreign regime changes to deny energy to a larger populace every year, that growth is not free
that’s the beauty of the UK swirling down the drain.
when the UK becomes impoverished, more resources for The Core.
And China!! Lots of left oil from them …and pork
YES! I have been trying to get this across. Pushing the pain out to the less powerful periphery is what the US will do. USA, USA, USA.
there surely are some psychosociopaths who are behind the scenes in USA leadership.
the USevilempire will do much of the dirty stuff that all other empires have done.
The Great Satan is a title that is earned not given.
quite correct
but it will only stave it off for a relatively short time
Middle East Crude Prices Surge as Supply From Iran and Russia Falls
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan 03, 2025
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Middle-East-Crude-Prices-Surge-as-Supply-From-Iran-and-Russia-Falls.html
inflation adjusted oil prices are moderate now in historical context.
some days higher and some days lower.
I get up, I get down.
BAU for the core. Party on.
Once we get the solar power satellites up and the ASI universities in place it truly will be the golden age of America. We will be that shining city on the hill. 🙂
I suggest we do not share the tech until a nation adds the US bill of right to their constitution.
America is back baby! To the stars.
to Mars!
to the stars!
Shale Investors Unlikely to Heed Trump’s Call for an Oil Boom
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan 24, 2025
Despite President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” policies, it will be oil prices and Wall Street that will determine how much U.S. oil production will grow in the near term, shale investors and executives say.
The key reason for this is that the nature of the shale business has changed as producers look to return more money to shareholders while the wave of mergers and acquisitions has led to bigger producers becoming even bigger by absorbing smaller ones. Large public companies are not inclined to sink capital in relentless drilling—they prioritize returns to investors.
Moreover, the shale industry has made huge progress in capital discipline and efficiency gains and is getting more bang for its buck. Priorities are now returns to investors and financial frames capable of withstanding oil price volatility.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shale-Investors-Unlikely-to-Heed-Trumps-Call-for-an-Oil-Boom.html
Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes
By Alex Kimani – Jan 21, 2025,
US oil drilling activity has dropped to near post-pandemic lows due to low oil prices and cost inflation, with the rig count falling for over two years.
Oil companies are prioritizing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, even resorting to borrowing to fund them, rather than investing in new drilling.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Majors-Borrow-Billions-for-Buybacks-as-Production-Wanes.html
Global Economy Faces $5.7 Trillion Loss from Decoupling
Jan 23, 2025
Economic decoupling between western and eastern economies could cost the global economy $5.7 trillion.
Developing economies would be the hardest hit by fragmentation, with potential GDP losses of up to 10%.
https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Global-Economy-Faces-57-Trillion-Loss-from-Decoupling.html
only $5.7 trillion?
no big deal then.
As we witness the Chinese car industry and its industry as a whole, we come to the conclusion that the current high food prices will not go away, as food industry works with living organisms while car industry processes dead minerals.
https://youtu.be/KPd-zOdln04?si=x-UkKR8bkJn_45i2
The cars can be cheap, but your food expenditures depend on the fields that can not be replaced by new mines and materials.
yes high food prices will never go away.
not only that, but food will continue to be an ever-greater portion of spending, as degrowth proceeds for the next few decades.
at some point in time, the average person will only be able to afford daily food and nothing else, non-essentials will be totally unaffordable.
beyond that, average daily life will get even worse.
it’s nothing to worry about.
//////at some point in time, the average person will only be able to afford daily food and nothing else, non-essentials will be totally unaffordable.//////
you are describing humankind until the 1800s
yup no big deal.
most humans lived in poverty conditions for tens of thousands of years, and most humans will do so in the future.
que sera sera.
I don’t know. It ain’t so bad; give me a good dog. All the books I can read. A bicycle a good pair of boots fishing rod etc…. I laugh when rich people tell me how horrible Covid was..; just got to be able to tighten the belt
I hope you will enjoy your all-fish diet.
your future is bright!
My money is going into tuna cans..better than gold bars
it’s the 2nd half of the 2020s and no end in sight for BAU in The Core!
(the 2050s are going to be brutal.)
(the 2050s are going to be brutal.)
It used to be that you could count on things being much the same over a 25 year period. No more as we approach the singularity and things happen faster and faster.
They might be brutal, heck, the whole race could be gone. But I suspect that things are more likely to be just plain weird from out current viewpoint.
the new cullt of “the singularity” has some followers who swallow these modern myths.
it can be counted on that humans will be inventing myths for as long as there are humans.
If you know an argument as to why technological progress will stop, there are a lot of people who would be very interested.
I don’t see any way to avoid such developments.
Simple. Money dries up.
Combined with the dysgenics of those who drove civilization.
China, India and Middle East in 1800 looked exactly alike what they were on the year 0. Left to their own devices they will never invent or develop anything to save themselves.
“Simple. Money dries up.”
That’s certainly not what happened with AI. My guess is that the first demonstration of constructing molecular machines will be rewarded by a huge outpouring of investment.
It’s also not a technical objection.
yes it’s easy to see that you are so deep into the Religion of Progress and its offshoot singularity cullt, that you can’t see anything that will stop Progress.
again no big deal, the future will be what it will be, no matter what immpossible scifi ideas might be imagined.
” immpossible scifi ideas”
Like landing on the moon?
Seriously, the singularity is AI and nanotechnology. I don’t think you can argue that AI is impossible now that it exists. And given that life at the bottom level is a mess of molecular machines, I would really like to see an argument against it that did not also deny the existence of life.
seriously, you are conflating actual scientific achievement with “the singularity”.
just because you compare the two in the same sentence doesn’t mean anything.
humans have and will always be able to imagine things that are immpossible.
enjoy your modern myths.
I’m sure they give you some comfort, as myths have done for billions of people through the ages.
it’s fascinating that your modern mythology also includes a form of “eternal life”.
must be a crutch you need psychologically.
just to add, I’m sure nothing will convince you of the mythological basis of your singularity cullt.
no big deal, it seems quite harmllesss compared to other cullts.
David, I find your lack of faith disturbing.
Come the Singularity, you are going to regret scoffing at Keith’s beliefs as you go down the plughole while he continues to circle the drain.
oh Godzilla, help my unbelief!
By 2030 the show will be over
you are consistently wrong, so this will be one more example.
you do live in the mighty USA yes?
2030 is not there yet
true, and writing about the future is often a guessing game.
I will grant you that some smaller weaker countries will fall disastrously by 2030.
I think you deserve this little crowing. A few years ago, say 2021, never I would have imagined that Europe would drop its pants this fast and this decisively. In the core the 2050 (or perhaps the 2040) will be brutal but in the periphery it is going to happen a lot sooner. 5M diesel produced versus 3M consumed does give you a cushion. you need to manage a 2% decline or less.
true.
especially UK looks like it’s swirling around the drain.
Hypothesis:
Failure to reproduce, no children, belief that a human is a human is a human. Kin has precedent, perhaps it is part of biology upon which economics is based.
The universe does seem to self organize, it is inorganic, but it is somewhat violent.
Dennis L.
Not for members of the flat earth society e.g Denise etc or maybe it is ?
https://medium.com/predict/its-time-to-admit-it-starship-is-an-embarrassing-failure-c38a9bb13bff
On AI
Currently there is some hype about a family of large language models like ChatGPT. The program reads natural language input and processes it into some related natural language content output. That is not new. The first Artificial Linguistic Internet Computer Entity (Alice) was developed by Joseph Weizenbaum at MIT in the early 1960s. I had funny chats with ELIZA in the 1980s on a mainframe terminal. ChatGPT is a bit niftier and its iterative results, i.e. the ‘conversations’ it creates, may well astonish some people. But the hype around it is unwarranted. Read more .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/01/how-the-chinese-beat-trump-and-openai.html#more
Did not read the links, too much on my plate.
My personal experience is with Copilot – it is a very good search engine, it is a very good tutor for solid state electronics. I like it and use it daily. One of those uses, the solid state course, is accurate enough to help get excellent grades on homework. It has very helpful explanations and with questioning will go as deep as one desires.
Have no idea how it works with other areas.
Dennis L.
“Have no idea how it works with other areas.”
It’s really good at project design. Scoping out trash/coal and intermittent power to diesel it was very useful and corrected me in a couple of places.
The one thing it fails at isn’t the AI’s fault. It gave me pointers to companies who build blast furnaces and induction furnaces. They were useless because whoever or whatever is supposed to respond did not.
From what I hear in other forums, AIs improve engineering and programming productivity by 3 to 10 times. It will take a while for this to show up in the economy, perhaps a year to three years.
In my primitive electronics education, it makes learning much more efficient, less time searching for answers.
From my limited experience programming VBA, yup very good and some of the ways it uses objects are extremely clever.
Dennis L.
Since you refused to read it I read it for you.
In one single sentence, the Starship was a colossal failure.
Sorry to rain on your parade, and I know nothing I or anyone else says will wake up from the delusion that Musk will save the world, but that is the reality.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-davos-globalists-admit-we-have-lost-trump
Comment on Davos by Davos.
Dennis L.
A Memorial to Fast Eddie
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uq0x56zagLo
Fast Eddie We Bid You Goodnight Love Dom & Willow
A nice mellow song with film of a cool dude.
Where is FE now?
He has his own blog. Fasteddyez.substack.com
Sorry. Fastefdynz.
he should be enjoying BAU for the next decade or two in Western Australia.
he had the foresight to leave NZ.
he seems to be a “fast doomer” in theory, but in practice he has positioned himself to ride out BAU in a place that looks to have better long-term prospects than NZ.
Kumbaya…Eddies favorite dig to the Hippy crowd of the Grateful Dead… Skeptical of his chances in Western Australia.
But then again, Eddie is inclined to move his cheese when it’s being threatened…
Beds are Burning by Midnight Oil
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ejorQVy3m8E&pp=ygUdYmVkcyBhcmUgYnVybmluZyBtaWRuaWdodCBvaWw%3D
Fast Eddie should do a walkabout in the outback…maybe he’ll then see something, but then again maybe not…
Edward Abbey
if he’s in OZ, he wont have such problems with the English language, his personal self esteem will rise (compared to those around him) and will maybe be able to cuss in words rather than numbers
All these arguments about the so-called smart money is on space and other tech are just talk.
When the monied class actually had a stake on world, long term investments were possible and feasible, which is why all the great structures and infrastructures were built during older ages to be used for ages.
Today’s ‘smart money’ do not have a stake on today’s world. Smart money has no home, no real final spot, and its owners can fly from countries to countries in any time. Elon Musk acts as if he owns USA now but when things turn against him he can always fly to another place and will do so.
The megafunds which invest in huge tech companies do so because of its higher returns and when they stop to deliver the investors will move on to the next hot thing without thinking for a nanosecond. It takes time to develop things but the investors are not going to wait it out.
Those who believe smart money investing on big tech will save humanity do not seem to understand the nature of such money. Smart money is smart because it delivers returns to the investors, who do not give a crap about space or anything. All they care about is the returns.
I’m afraid you have some good points in this comment. It is difficult to find a good place to invest.
Your children, it is a long term investment and a self replicating process perfected over thousands of years.
Dennis L.
Never invest in anything which eats- Wall Street adage
Earned income from producing goods and services is treated differently than unearned “rentier” income especially via capital gains taxes, especially which often are at higher rates than unearned income. When you have a central bank and fractional reserve banking system that pumps trillions of fiat dollars currency which benefit the non-productive bankers, hedge fund managers, lawyers, politicians, MIC corporations and government-private partnership parasites, you turbocharge wealth extraction and redistribution. Add in the ability to transfer money over the internet and the resultiung superconcentration of centralized power, well, the productive middle class doesn’t stand a chance. This as I understand it is one of the major points of the Austrian School of Economics.
Money printing and the Cantillon effect guarantee wild misallocation of resources, wealth extraction by the parasitic class and outright waste of energy and natural resources. BTC, AI, and thousands of tanks littering the landscape and countless towns and cities turned to rubble in UKR or add to that Gaza ?
hubs the middle class is not productive. only mineral miners and farmers and manufacturers are productive. the middle class action is parasitic. one barrel of oil is four and a half years of human toiling labour. energy is dissipated at the point of extraction and distribution, not at the point of having ious sitting in a ghost account. 30000000 ai techies consume more resources than 100 elites flying private jets. shuffling numbers on an excel spreadsheet is parasitic, not productive. the elites are attempting to transition the western world to live in a digital world so they can stop wanting raw materials and goods in real life do you get it or not?? one billion westerners may own less money but they ultimately eat more food and take up more land mass and homes and roads and infrastructure
Maximizing shareholder wealth
That is the mantra that they drill into you
(Reuters)
‘WHO chief to cut costs, reset priorities after US exit, document shows’
That seems a good news, but tricks and bad actions could also be made anyway.
Something to follow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/who-chief-cut-costs-reset-priorities-after-us-exit-document-shows-2025-01-24/
After WHO was the one claiming a world pandemic for covid, and wanted the ability to do this for any disease, I can understand why Trump would like to withdraw.
recent study from the University of Stavanger has found something pretty alarming: around 40% of Gen Zers are losing their grip on handwritten communication, a skill that’s been key to human interaction for about 5500 years.
Generation Z is losing a skill we’ve had for 5,500 years: 40% are losing mastery of communication
Is Generation Z losing touch with handwriting? A shocking 40% struggle with this vital skill, risking their cognitive development and personal connections. Discover what’s at stake for future communication and the steps to bridge this gap.
Yes, humans and computers are merging into one ,
Losing handwriting ability is alarming, because without today’s fancy devises, we would need to go back to handwriting, perhaps on clay tablets–or on a piece of paper. We have learned to live in a world without handwriting.
I think that there is a similar problem with children learning basic arithmetic on calculators. They become so calculator dependent that they cannot figure out simple calculations such as, “If apples are two for a dollar, how much does one cost.?
I make extensive notes while reading my electronics text prior to class; I often rewrite those notes always in an engineering notebook. Got that one from Feynman who said he wrote and rewrote his ideas until a metaphorical five year old could understand them.
He of course had a Noble prize, one could choose a worse example.
I think writing links ideas in our brains, tedious and certainly not the way of Will Hunting.
Dennis L.
ive always written things down to clarify my own understanding
Fortunately we have reached peak paper, so no need to worry about anything. Most people will lose that ability eventually.
I’m curious how this recession would unfold. I have at least no idea how we would get out of this mess as oil is what makes economic growth possible. We need to keep investing in new projects and these projects are getting more expensive. Norway had its peak and its now contemplating whether is should invest heavily to drill for whats left. there are no new fields so it wouldn’t give high returns. Anyway, my point is that most people would expect the economy to get back on track eventually but what if this will be the ‘new normal’? Most oil companies are focussing on buybacks and dividends, while they should be investing in new projects. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Majors-Borrow-Billions-for-Buybacks-as-Production-Wanes.html
It is hard to focus on new investments, if there are no opportunities available to earn an adequate return on investment.
For a while (roughly 2008 to 2021), interest rates were very low, giving the impression that a very low return was really acceptable. Not that interest rates are higher again, it is clear that invesments need to have an adequate return, to make up for both inflation and to give a reasonable return on investments.
Again, we are burning the candle at both ends. One end is the natural rate of depletion of low hanging fruit of energy and materials and thus the higher cost of extraction. The other end is the debt based financial system which had previously accelerated industrial growth, but which is now putting the brakes (breaks) on it.
Hubbs,
Your view is retrospective, Starship is making incredible progress. I use Copilot, it is an incredible tutor and never gets bored with me. One year ago TSLA was $138, it is now $414; it is also real, Starship 7 was a learning experience, the underlying super booster was caught for the second time to the point where the new chopsticks will be shorter, it simply works, less margin for error.
Society is a long term project, our children are a long term project.
I posted a link to a Duran podcast with a Chinese who commented on the Han Dynasty. It wasn’t a straight path, but it goes back 5k years with some major bumps, Mao certainly wasn’t an easy period.
Biology self organizes, a large meteor which kills off one form of life gives form to another, us. Think of the stress of having a tyrannosaurs rex in a neighboring field. We are biology, biology succeeds; economics comes from biology.
There is no shortage of “stuff”, it is all around us with fusion energy a local ride away.
We will not solve today’s problems with yesterday’s technology; the road ahead is bright and full of promise.
Dennis L.
The original Chinese civilization was wiped out by invaders from the north by the end of 5th century, and then various nomadic invaders took their turns, all the way to the Japanese in the 1940s.
The Manchu invasion was decisive. Chinese is a tonal language and since the Manchus did not speak one of the tones it disappeared.
we have growth and expansion only through access to cheap surplus fuels
when we dont, growth will cease and go into reverse.
thats just the way things are
Why Germany’s Economy, Once a Leader in Europe, Is Now in Crisis
The country is facing a second year of zero growth, with industry leaders gloomy and worried about potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump.
Nov. 23, 2024
High energy prices, a complex bureaucracy, aging public infrastructure and geopolitical developments have hurt Germany’s export industry. Political paralysis under the previous government exacerbated the situation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/22/business/germany-economy-budget-elections.html
Germany’s Economy Contracts for the Second Consecutive Year in 2024: A Deeper Look into the Nation’s Struggles
The Energy Crisis and Its Effects on German Industry
January 20, 2025
https://www.ceotodaymagazine.com/2025/01/germanys-economy-contracts-for-the-second-consecutive-year-in-2024-a-deeper-look-into-the-nations-struggles-and-what-lies-ahead/
The German economy is forecast to contract for a third year in a row as it battles the “longest economic crisis” in its modern history, according to a German think-tank.
02.01.2025
The Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) predicts the largest economy in the European Union, and at the same time Poland’s biggest trading partner, will shrink by 0.1% in 2025, following a 0.3% contraction in 2024 and 0.3% in 2023.
https://tvpworld.com/84331034/german-recession-projected-to-enter-its-third-year
>> Today, Germany is one of the most popular destinations for immigrants in the world, with well over 1 million people moving there each year since 2013.[1] As of 2019, around 13.7 million people living in Germany, or about 17% of the population, are first-generation immigrants.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Germany
17% first gen, who knows what percent second gen, but Germany as a distinct population has been destroyed quickly in historical terms.
Addie Hitter of the Nannies …”I told you so” ….just kidding folks..
After all this is a doomer site and we got Kulmie ranting about it all constantly
ivan,
Economics is secondary to biology. Much of the west has contracted out having children to others; look at advertising, look at that view of women. They are careerists, going to change the world. Most work is just hard work, it always has been.
Our children are biology, they are a long term investment, they are economics. Our world is 80/20, no children means no economy and no descendants means old age is going to be short as descendants if having been raised carefully and lovingly have a debt to those who went before. Aunts and uncles support the nephews if they have few/no children. It is their investment in the future.
Germany is unique, it sacrificed 5.3M of its young to WWII. It did not work, and currently it does not seem to be working, no children and a shrinking economy.
It is stuff over biology, it only works for one generation; no biology, no economics.
Russia has a demographic problem, in WWII they lost 22-27M. It still has that demographic problem, its young were squandered dealing with Germany. Ukraine has squandered its youth, their economic destiny is already written no matter how much “stuff” there is in the ground.
Biology is destiny, non sentient biology has no destiny only evolution.
Dennis L.
To be fair though, the world doesn’t need Germany to build cars anymore. It needs Germany to design cars and engineering. And they still should be able to do that moving forward.
I kinda remember reading a long time ago a WSJ article regarding the same concept…once the manufacturing base is lost…then gradually the designing and engineering goes with it.
Just read a piece regarding China. In a nutshell the Chinese realized the West was leap years ahead in ICE automotive industry, so the decided to concentrate on the development of EVs instead. So, today they are the the forefront of this industry, while the West struggles…
China made a bet decades ago because it couldn’t compete with the US on cars. That bet is paying off big
By Laura Paddison and Ella Nilsen, CNN
Updated 4:24 AM EST, Thu January 23, 2025
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/23/climate/china-evs-growth-oil-market
“There has been a record jump in the number of UK businesses in critical financial distress, according to insolvency specialists.
Businesses in the most distress include those in hospitality, leisure and retail, but the construction industry is also facing challenges.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vmrpdrk4eo
The UK is doing poorly, also.
British TFR is currently 1.44 children per woman, per Copilot this is in the United Kingdom and is not broken out by “native” Britains.
Moving in untrained, unskilled labor is no substitute for children; these immigrants have no biological connection to the natives. That means trouble for “social” programs for the elderly.
Too much philosophy, too much elitism with pompous ideas covering for incredible cruelty towards the colonies. When they went against equals, they were sent home; it in the US is called the American Revolution. They were too soft.
America is reorganizing, a good friend of the President has his eyes on space. Space is stuff, space is energy, earth is biology, it is an incredible spaceship and probably impossible to duplicate based on what we know of the universe, damn few spaceship earths.
Perhaps even God has a tough time making a working spaceship, but He has no problem making stuff; it is there for the taking.
China is a very old culture, what it has done in the last fifty years incredible, the path was not easy and was strewn with incredible hardship. If it has been done, it can be done; biology leads economics and is logically necessary.
Dennis L.
Let’s see if your friend delivers on that cubic mile of platinum
This is not a big surprise. Germany doesn’t have enough cheap energy. Its electricity is too high-priced, when it is available. Oil and natural gas supply are now iffy as well. Oil and natural gas from Russia were inexpensive and suited to Germany’s needs. Not having them is a big problem.
Germany per Copilot with coaxing has spent approximately $276.8B in wind and solar. It does not work, never has and this is from a guy who owns a 23KW wind turbine currently sitting on the ground along with solar panels going up real soon now.
SpaceX per Copilot has raised a total of approx $9.74B since founding in 2002.
Choices: Germany invented modern rocketry, used it to kill people. Wrong choice, it is an energy source done well.
Humans are like that, choices, some are emotionally appealing out of both hate or altruism. Reality can be a difficult choice.
I like the idea of renewable energy, I am interested in regenerative agriculture, I am aware the low-lying fruit has been picked; at worst they are harmless hobbies of an old man.
Dennis L.
Germany never recovered after Woodrow Wilson stole Silesia, for which Friedrich II had fought tooth and nail against Maria Theresia, and gave it to Poland, which was very ill equipped to maintain it and has made it a mess.
Breslau, which the Poles call Wroclaw, was sold to the LG Group in Korea.
President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
Jan 23 2025
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.html
If inflation rates remain high, it will be very had to attract investors without high interest rates.
And if it goes lower? Restaurants are closing, cars are too expensive to purchase, houses are off the wall expensive. Raising interest rates makes spending more difficult.
Amish seem to be doing fine, biology which leads economics.
Investors need people, without people there is no economics.
I have no idea where the economy is going, our biggest problem is people.
I am in school, I am nonjudgmental, and I root for the kids. My lab partner is incredibly intelligent, she uses a calculator, we use square root of 2 all the time, I do it symbolically, she does 1.414 with roundoff. At my age, I am grateful to have her as a lab partner, but there is a difference in how we approach problems. She is very formula driven, we are given formulas, I am more process. It is a good team.
The young are our future, we can only invest in them, but I think they have been shortchanged in education. Kids are very labor intensive, they are the only investment possible, without them all the “stuff” is worthless.
Dennis L.
Without griwth how can the Amish support its increasing inbredcpopulation?
Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices, Aims to End Ukraine War
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trump-Pressures-OPEC-to-Lower-Oil-Prices-Aims-to-End-Ukraine-War.html
Donald Trump calls on Opec to push down global oil prices
US president tells World Economic Forum he will insist central banks lower interest rates ‘immediately’ afterwards
https://www.ft.com/content/af9a3a17-cf32-4d4c-b2e1-97ea7c5e2bb1
Ukrainian Drones Strike Russia’s Oil Heartland
By Julianne Geiger – Jan 24, 2025
Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian oil refinery in Ryazan, causing significant damage and disrupting operations.
The attack highlights Ukraine’s increasing ability to target critical Russian infrastructure and its focus on disrupting Moscow’s war effort.
Former President Trump called on OPEC to lower oil prices, arguing that high prices are funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Ukrainian-Drones-Strike-Russias-Oil-Heartland.html
The average Joe is being misled by Trump and media to believe that the USA has enormous oil reserves.
https://youtu.be/mA9qwEu5v9Q?t=394
I am afraid that you are right. US oil reserves are not very great. The reason why the US hasn’t drilled a lot of offshore and other areas is because no one believe there is a good chance of getting very much.
Trump also fails to point out that oil prices need to be high enough for oil producers to consider developing reserves. Low oil prices create a problem for those trying to extract the oil.
As i keep pointing out—Trump is an economic dimbo—his past business history proves it.
now the world itself is his get out of jail card
His wife does look good in 4″ heals and his son is good looking as well. He did something right.
Dennis L.
Norman, you seemed perplexed as to whyTrump would rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.
There is a very practical reason why he has done that.
Biden recently imposed a permanent ban on new offshore oil drilling in many US economic waters including the Gulf of Mexico. Trump wants to drill, and it isn’t going to be easy for him to overturn that Biden ban.
So he has done the next best thing. He has abolished the Gulf of Mexico and established the Gulf of America, and next he will try to open up the Gulf of America to drilling on the basis that the Gulf of America is not on Biden’s list of areas where drilling is banned.
Will he get away with it?
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Interesting approach!
Biden banned drilling likely because there is nothing left to be drilled and it’s just a political stunt.
And I bet you’re right Tim, Trump wants to keep drilling but denies there is nothing left. Trump said on Rogan interview the US had more oil than Saudi Arabia. So, he obviously doesn’t “get it”.
It’s amazing what new names and redefinitions can achieve.
i’m going to change my name to superman
then i will be able to fly and catch girls falling off tall buildings
When the resources were cheap and could be reached easily, it was enough to have slaves for using them. As we moved further, we needed machines. Then the power of the debt was invented. In the end, we have an explosion of the slaves, machines and the debt which are needed simultaneously to get the resources. This is, of course, irreversible: we can not move further without all of them combined. The AI just adds some further energy to our invention.
All is about adding some more energy for moving further.
Perhaps AI can be used to allow us to extract more fossil fuels, inexpensively.
Yes, as all my coworkers like to say and walk away
“They’ll think up something to fix it right, they always do”.
Wouldn’t that be nice if it’s true…
i dont think fossil fuels can be extracted ”inexpensively”
extraction costs of oil 2 miles down as opposed to 100ft down, are what they are—AI cannot subsitute for physical effort and input.
yes–ai can help design machinery to help you do it, but not change the energy input requirement
Yup, AI slaves in space; mine baby mine. Make it there, “import” it to earth, pollution free.
Two hottest technologies, space and AI. Put them together and oil is so yesterday.
Of course, there is the cubic mile of Pt problem, that too will be solved.
Dennis L. .
youve been hacking into keith calculator again
‘If we Sapiens are so wise, why are we so self-destructive?’
It is the way of all flesh. We do cooperate better than any other species would or even could. But in a world of limited resources and limited living space, competition and conflict are inevitable and can only be avoided up to a point. We live on the skin of a ball of rock 8000 miles wide. And our needs and desires keep rubbing against each other. Intelligence allows us to understand the problem. But there are no straightforward ways of defusing it so long as we are stuck on this finite ball of rock.
It is exactly this realisation that has pursuaded the billionaires and great powers to turn their eyes towards the frontier of the space. The solar system offers living space and resources that dwarf those of Earth. It offers up a future that is grander than anything we can even imagine. But the challenges are equally daunting. It is as hard for us as it was for the first fish that crawled onto the land. But the opportunities are as great as the challenge. And this is where the smart money is investing itself. It is the only growth opportunity that remains because it is the only place remaining where there is room for growth.
There may be room for growth in space, but an awfully lot of things we require are missing: air for breathing; a way to grow and prepared food; fresh water; sunshine; our friends and family.
“There may be room for growth in space, but an awfully lot of things we require are missing: air for breathing; a way to grow and prepared food; fresh water; sunshine; our friends and family.”
Air is a small part of the mass budget. There is good reason to think that growing food will be much easier.
https://htyp.org/File:SMF_1975_Closed_Ecosystems_Chapter.pdf
Fresh water gets endlessly recycled like it does on Earth. Sunshine is 24 hours a day.
You bring friends and family along.
There is material in the asteroids to build a couple of thousand times the area of the Earth.
Will we do it? We certainly could given the current technology. But I just don’t know. Thinking about Tabby’s Star, even if there are no aliens there point in a different direction.
Biology is not meant for space, biology is for earth. Space is for machines, too damn hard to make a spaceship earth.
Dennis L.
We cooperate better than bees or ants, do we? I don’t think so.
Yes we do. Bees and ants have no conception of international cooperation. Rival colonies are in a state of constant war with each other. Humans are not like that. Nations cooperate more often than not. But there are limits to cooperation. Some conflicts cannot be resolved without violence, because claims are mutually exclusive. Human life is a lot less bloody than it is for most species. Only a tiny fraction of humans born in the past century have died in combat.
” Humans are not like that.”
True. They don’t fight all time, just when it is better for their genes than the alternative (usually starvation).
“Nations cooperate more often than not. ”
Nations are very recent in our evolutionary history.
“But there are limits to cooperation. Some conflicts cannot be resolved without violence, because claims are mutually exclusive. ”
Like lebensraum.
“Human life is a lot less bloody than it is for most species.”
It depends on the group involved. Groups with a high reproductive rate have to kill off the excess population. That ranges up to 60% of the adults in some groups of tribes.
“Only a tiny fraction of humans born in the past century have died in combat.”
That’s true because technology has increased the food supply faster than the population growth and the growth has been held down by effective birth control.
Yes.
Dennis L>
🙂
The ‘smart’ money goes for immediate profits. It invests on the latest technology since it attracts investors, but when it ceases to be profitable they move on to the next big fish, leaving fools behind.
It is a giant scam since there are no real investments being made for the necessary vehicles.
Winning!
Masayoshi Son promises to invest five hundred billion dollars in Donald Trump’s America. That’s a lot of Monopoly money.
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1881835411238170624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1881835411238170624%7Ctwgr%5E76acc6304aae08fbf4644d08fe4588b22af229c2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theautomaticearth.com%2F2025%2F01%2Fdebt-rattle-january-23-2025%2F
Wow! The only problem is that is not $500 billion worth of resources. It is $500 billion of the kind of Monopoly money we are using today.
Mr. Son, a Korean-Japanese, a son of a slot machine parlor owner (in Japan slot machines , called pachinkos, are usually run in smaller mini malls) has been a gambler.
Given that he had bought a lot of NVidia stocks but sold them before it became huge, his invest acumen is not something to be proud of.
All these hype of AI and the applied physics, which has to do with physics as much as video games have to do with it, are just talk
It won’t lead to anything other than more controls and complete surveillence
Which is precisely what AI is excellent at.
Each of us will have an AI minder, if we are employees. That AI minder will ensure we are capable, and not having resentment or health concerns, which would cost the company if employment was to continue.
Suddenly, there is almost no need for the overhead of managers, as work can be measured, and paperwork provided.
We need a replacement or at least back up system for people wanting to opt out. I think the only place it would be far enough from AI, would be for rural people.
It will be good at gauging our Zionist loyalty score.
Yes, the score is already enforced..
Remember some Ivy league grads being turned down for impeding job offers because some were spotted among protests on the treatment of Palestinians…
This was some time ago..but the message was clear
Three law students who backed Israel letters lose job offers
An elite law firm has rescinded job offers for three Ivy League students associated with letters expressing support for Palestinians that blamed Israel for the Hamas attacks.
Davis Polk & Wardwell said the views “are in direct contravention of our firm’s value system”.
It added that student leaders who signed onto the statements are “no longer welcome in our firm
That is a tricky one, not sure who is the user and who is the used.
Dennis L.
Oil turns lower after Trump says he’ll ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring the price down
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/oil-turns-lower-after-trump-says-hell-ask-saudi-arabia-and-opec-to-bring-the-price-down.html
The Saudis can’t pump much more to bring down price. A good recession caused by Trump’s tariffs would help bring down the price more than the Saudis could.
Oil price isn’t very low. Natural gas is high because of the cold US weather. The prices now are higher than they have been recently.
Saudi Arabia has many on going projects, like Neom, and it is investing in trying to be a Country for the future, they cannot afford to follow a bully who is thinking about making his country better off.
Perhaps they can strike a deal where some of their funds are allowed to flow out of the US, in exchange for a brief blip?
“We have named our species Homo sapiens – the wise human. But it is debatable how well we have lived up to the name. Over the last 100,000 years, we Sapiens have certainly accumulated enormous power. Just listening all our discoveries, inventions, and conquests would fill volumes. But power isn’t wisdom, and after 100,000 years humanity has pushed itself into an existential crisis. We are on the verge of ecological collapse, caused by the misuse of our own power.
Yet instead of our species uniting to deal with these existential challenges, international tensions are rising, global cooperation is becoming more difficult, countries are stockpiling doomsday weapons, and a new world war does not seem impossible.
If we Sapiens are so wise, why are we so self-destructive?”
-Nexus, Yuval Noah Harari (2024)
We have too many Homo sapiens now, and not enough resources of many kinds. Whether people realize it or not, there is tension about who gets what.
We don’t have enormous power. Fossil fuels do.
But as Norman has pointed out without humans fossil fuels are just black goo, ect..We make an incredible team…
Let’s keep the BAU show on stage until at least till I die,
Please…I’m being nice ..
Four more years…TRUMP..
Dumb and Dumber: Study Says Humans Are Slowly Losing Their Smarts
Random mutations in genes related to human intellect might be making us dumber.
By Jason Koebler Nov. 13, 2012 US News and World Reports
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/11/13/dumb-and-dumber-study-says-humans-are-slowly-losing-their-smarts
In the last century, humans have landed a man on the moon, sequenced the genome, and created the Internet — but, surprisingly, we may be slowly evolving to be less intelligent than our ancestors.
That’s because a series of mutations affecting the estimated 5,000 genes controlling human intellect have crept into our DNA, says Gerald Crabtree, a geneticist at Stanford University, whose findings were published in the journal Trends in Genetics.
Intelligence doesn’t play as significant a selection in our present, supportive wonderful society,” he says. “I don’t think we should revert back to the terrible times of extreme selection” where only the strongest survive, he adds.
Crabtree says that simple math makes it likely that humans are getting dumber. In the past 3,000 years, about 120 generations, Crabtree estimates that random, naturally occurring mutations have likely occurred in nearly every human.
It’s worth mentioning these changes are very slow. You wouldn’t see an effect in 20 or 100 years,” he says. “It’s happening so slowly that it’s not something that anyone alive should worry about.”
Their brains started getting smaller once most megafauna became extinct. Faster deterioration ensued after the onset of agriculture. How is this news?
Is there a magic in the 49th parallel? USA/Canada? Slovakia divided in 2 parts with this line. My district town with its famous prison in Slovakia lies on it.
there must be some random stuff in many places on the 49th parallel.
made a good movie though