As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
People have a misimpression regarding how world peak oil can be expected to behave. The world economy has continued to grow, but now it is beginning to move in the direction of contraction due to an inadequate supply of crude oil. In fact, it is not just an inadequate crude oil supply, but also an inadequate supply of coal (per person) and an inadequate supply of uranium.
We know that when a boat changes direction, this causes turbulence in the water. This is similar to the problems we are currently seeing in the world economy. Physics dictates that the economy needs to shrink in size to match its energy resources, but no country wants to be a part of this shrinkage. This indirectly leads to major changes in elected leadership and to increased interest in war-like behavior. Strangely enough, it also seems to lead to higher long-term interest rates, as well.
In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall.
[1] I expect that the general trend in 2025 will be toward world recession.
With less oil (and coal and uranium) relative to population, the world can be expected to produce fewer goods and services per person. In some sense, people will generally become poorer. For example, fewer people will be able to afford new cars or new homes.
This trend toward lower purchasing-power tends to be concentrated in certain groups such as young people, farmers, and recent immigrants. As a result, older people who are well-off or firmly established may be able to mostly ignore this issue.
While the shift toward a poorer world has partially been hidden, it has been a huge factor in allowing Donald Trump to be voted back into power. Major shifts in leadership are taking place elsewhere, as well, as an increasing share of citizens become unhappy with the current situation.
[2] Many governments will try to hide recessionary tendencies by issuing more debt to stimulate their economies.
In the past, adding debt was found to be effective way of stimulating the world economy because energy supplies supporting the world economy were not seriously constrained. It was possible to add new energy supplies, quite inexpensively. The combination of additional inexpensive energy supplies and additional “demand” (provided by the added debt) allowed the total quantity of goods and services produced to be increased. Once energy supplies started to become seriously constrained (about 2023), this technique started to work far less well. If energy production is constrained, the likely impact of added debt will be added inflation.
The problem is that if added government debt doesn’t really add inexpensive energy, it will instead create more purchasing power relative to the same number, or a smaller number, of finished goods and services available. I believe that in 2025, we are heading into a situation where ramping up governmental debt will mostly lead to inflation in the cost of finished goods and services.
[3] Energy prices are likely to remain too low for fossil fuel and uranium producers to raise investments from their current low levels.
Recession and low prices tend to go together. While there may be occasional spikes in oil and other energy prices, 2025 is likely to bring oil and other energy prices that are, on average, no higher than those of 2024, adjusted for the overall increase in prices due to inflation. With generally low prices, producers will cut back on new investment. This will cause production to fall further.
[4] I expect “gluts” of many energy-related items in 2025.
Gluts are related to recession and low prices for producers. The underlying problem is that a significant share of the population finds that finished goods, made with energy products and investment at current interest rates, are too expensive to buy.
Even farmers are affected by low prices, just as they were back at the time of the Great Depression. We can think of food as an energy product that is eaten by people. Farmers find that their return on farm investment is too low, and that their implied wages are low. Low income for farmers around the world feeds back through the system as low buying power for new farm equipment, and for buying goods and services in general.
In 2025, I expect there will be a glut of crude oil due to a lack of purchasing power of many poor people around the world. My forecast is similar to the forecast of the IEA that predicts an oversupply of oil in 2025. Also, a December 2024 article in mining.com says, “A glut of coal in China is set to push falling prices even lower.”
Even wind turbines and solar panels can reach an oversupply point. According to one article, number of Chine solar panel builders seems to be far too high for world demand, leading to a potential shake out. As the share of wind and solar power added to the electric grid increases, the frequency of low or negative payment for wholesale electric power increases. This makes adding more wind turbines and solar panels problematic, after a certain point. We don’t yet have a cost-effective way of storing intermittent electricity for months on end. This seems to be part of the reason why there recently were no bidders for producing more offshore wind power in Denmark.
[5] I expect long-term interest rates to remain high. This will be a problem for new investments of all kinds and for governmental borrowing.
In Section 2 of this post, I tried to explain that a peak-oil impact is likely to be inflation. This occurs because ramping up debt to try to stimulate the economy no longer works to get additional cheap energy products from the ground. Instead of getting as many finished goods and services as hoped for, the added debt tends to produce inflation instead.
I believe that we are reaching a stage of fossil-fuel depletion where it is becoming increasingly difficult to ramp up production, even with added investment. Because of the added debt added in an attempt to work around depletion, inflation in the price of finished goods and services can be expected. Investors are beginning to see long-term inflation as a likely problem. As a result, they are starting to demand higher long-term interest rates to compensate for the expected decrease in buying power.
Figure 2 shows that US long-term interest rates have varied widely. There was a period of generally dropping long-term interest rates from 1981 to 2020. Starting in late 2020, interest rates began to rise; in 2023 and 2024 they have been in the 4% to 5% range. These relatively high rates are occurring because lenders are demanding higher long-term interest rates in response to higher inflation rates.
Because of inflationary pressures, I expect that long-term interest rates will tend to stay at today’s high level in 2025; they may even rise further. These continued high interest rates will become a problem for many families wanting to purchase a home because US home mortgage rates rise and fall with US 10-year interest rates. Often families are faced with both high home prices and high interest rates. This combination makes mortgage costs a problem for many families.
Governments are also adversely affected. They tend to hold large amounts of debt that they have accumulated over a period or years. Up until 2020, much of this added debt often was at a very low interest rate. As more long-term debt at higher interest rates is added, annual interest rate payments tend to rise rapidly. This can cause a need to raise taxes. Japan, especially, would be affected by higher interest rates because of its high level of government debt, relative to GDP.
Higher interest rates will also raise costs for citizens trying to finance the purchase of homes, and for investors wanting to build wind turbines or solar panels. In fact, investment in any kind of factory, pipelines, or electricity transmission will tend to become more expensive.
In a sense, we seem to be seeing the peak oil problem shifting in a way that affects interest rates and the economy in general. Either higher interest rates or higher oil prices will tend to push the economy toward recession. We tend to look for rising prices to signal an oil supply problem, but perhaps that only works when there is excessive demand. If the problem is really inadequate oil supply, perhaps we should look for higher long-term interest rates, instead.
[6] Industry around the world is likely to be hit especially hard by recessionary tendencies.
Industry requires investment. Higher interest rates make new industrial investment more expensive. Industry is also a heavy user of energy products. Putting these observations together, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if new industrial investment is one of the first places to be cut back because of peak oil supply.
The original 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. The variables in this model were recently recalibrated in the article, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model.” Based on the detailed data given in the endnotes to the article, I calculated the expected industrialization per capita shown in Figure 3.
Based on Figure 3, this model shows that industrialization per person reached a peak in 2017. Peak industrialization (total, not per capita) occurred in 2018, which coincides with peak crude oil extraction (not per capita).
The model seems to suggest that after an inflection point in 2023 (that is 2024 and after), industrialization will start to fall more steeply. The model shows a decrease in production per capita of 4.1% in 2024 and of 5.3% in 2025. Such decreases would push the world economy toward recession.
The model suggests that people, on average, are getting poorer in terms of the quantity of goods and services they can afford to buy. New cars, motorcycles, and homes are becoming less affordable. Heavily industrialized countries, such as China, South Korea, and Germany are likely to be especially affected by headwinds to industrialization. I expect that the economic problems in these countries will continue and are likely to worsen in 2025.
[7] The US has tried to isolate itself from this nearly worldwide recession. I expect that during 2025, the US will increasingly slip into recession, as well.
There are several reasons for this belief:
(a) The US is heavily dependent upon imports of raw material. China is restricting exports of critical minerals used by the US. This will make it very difficult or impossible to ramp up high tech industries as planned.
(b) The US is heavily dependent on Russia for supplies of enriched uranium. Any plan for added nuclear electricity needs to consider where the uranium to power these plants will come from. It also needs to consider how this uranium will be enriched to the required concentration of uranium-235.
(c) If the US can ramp up crude oil and natural gas production, this can perhaps counter this trend toward US and world recession. Unfortunately, recent US oil supply has not been ramping up; instead its production has been fairly flat. Natural gas production has actually been lower since February 2024. Plans have been made to rapidly ramp up US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but these plans cannot work if the US natural gas supply is already decreasing.
(d) The US government has had an advantage in borrowing because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, the US is, in some sense, the first borrower, pulling the rest of the world along. The US, by making its short term interest rates higher than those of many other countries, was able to largely escape recession 2023 and 2024. Additional investment was attracted to the US by these higher interest rates. But the US cannot follow this strategy indefinitely. For one thing, a high US dollar handicaps exports. For another, interest costs on government debt become burdensome.
(e) Donald Trump has plans to close inefficient parts of government. These changes, if enacted, will reduce “demand” within the economy because workers in these sectors will lose their jobs. Over the longer term, these changes might be beneficial, but over the short term, they are likely to be recessionary.
(f) It is difficult for the US to do much better than the rest of the world. If the rest of the world is in recession, the US will tend to head in that direction, as well.
[8] I expect more conflict in 2025, but today’s wars will not look much like World War I or World War II.
Today, not many countries are able to build huge fleets of fighter airplanes. Even building drones and bombs seems to require supply lines that extend around the world. So, instead, wars are being fought in non-military ways, such as with sanctions and tariffs.
I expect that this trend away from direct military conflict will continue, with more novel approaches such as internet interference and stealth damage to infrastructure taking place instead.
I do not expect that nuclear bombs will be used, even when there is direct conflict between powerful adversaries. For one thing, uranium in these bombs is needed for other purposes. For another, there is too much chance of retaliation.
[9] I expect many types of capital gains will be low in 2025.
The situation we are facing now is the opposite of the drop in long-term interest rates observed between 1981 and 2020, in Figure (2), above. This historical drop in interest rates made it possible for businesses to more easily finance new investments. It also made it possible for individual citizens to be able to afford more homes and cars. It should not be surprising that this period has been a time of rising stock market prices, especially in the United States.
The world’s economic problem is that it no longer has the tailwind of falling long-term interest rates. Instead, rising long-term interest rates are becoming a headwind. Home prices are un-affordably high for most potential buyers at today’s interest rates. A similar problem faces those hoping to purchase agricultural equipment and farmland at today’s high prices and high interest rates.
We should not be surprised if home and farm prices stabilize and begin to fall. Prices of shares of stock are likely to encounter similar headwinds. Prices of derivative investments may perform even worse than the shares themselves.
Recently, a great deal of the strength of the US market has been in a few stocks. Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to very quickly provide a lot of benefit to the stock market as a whole for this to change. I cannot imagine this happening. With the US slipping toward recession, I expect that the US stock market will at best plateau in 2025.
[10] With less energy available and higher interest rates on government debt, I expect to see more government organizations disbanding.
It takes energy, directly and indirectly, to operate any kind of governmental organization. Eliminating governmental organizations is one way of saving energy. This is what happened when the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. I would think that parallel kinds of changes could start happening in the next few years, in many parts of the world.
At some time, perhaps as soon as 2025, the European Union could collapse. If things are going badly for many member countries, they will be less willing to support the European Union with their tax revenues. Other organizations that seem like they could be in peril include NATO and the World Trade Organization.
In some ways, such shrinkage would be in parallel with Trump’s plan for eliminating unnecessary governmental organizations within the United States. All these organizations require energy; cutting their number would go some way toward reducing crude oil and other energy consumption.
[11] It is possible that the world economy will eventually get itself out of its apparent trend toward recession, but I am afraid this will happen long after 2025.
We know that the world economy tends to operate in cycles. We would like to believe that the apparent current down-cycle is just temporary, but we can’t know this for sure. Physics tells us that we need energy supplies of the right kind for any action that contributes to GDP. Running short of energy supplies is therefore a very worrisome condition.
We also know that there are major inefficiencies in current approaches. For example, oil extraction leaves much of the oil resource in place. In theory, AI could greatly improve extraction techniques.
We also know that uranium consumption is terribly inefficient. M. King Hubbert thought that nuclear energy using uranium had amazing potential, but most of this potential remains untapped. Perhaps AI could help in this regard, also. If nothing else, perhaps recycling spent fuel could be made less expensive and problematic.
We can’t know what lies ahead. There may be a “religious” ending to our current predicament that we are discounting that is actually the “right story.” Or there may be a “technofix” solution that allows us to avert collapse or catastrophe. But for now, how the current down-cycle will end remains a major cause for concern.
well—the MAGAnut in chief has renamed the Gulf of Mexico
(fom his yesterday’s order)
/////Sec. 4. Gulf of America. (a) The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America.////
we can be pretty sure now he is going tto invade Panama and Greenland’—he does one thing—gets away with it, moves on to the next—imagine 2 years from now, let alone four
(Poland 1939 anyone???—for all ye mockers) history always rhymes
Putin told him to fook off . Nyet means Nyet .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-official-warns-trump-against-taking-control-panama-canal
Different names for geographical features are very common.
The French look at you with puzzlement if you refer to ‘Le Chenal Anglais’
Get over the election result Norman. It has zero relevance in the great scheme of things we discuss here.
The Gods of Depletion wil sweep them all away.
why, next he is going to close 3 opposition TV channels, ban the largest opposition party, and incarcerate the leader of said opposition party, right? and this would just make him the equal of Biden who did the exact same (the third point took 3 weeks though). difficult not to despise how intellectually weak these westerners are. evolution is coming, starting with the UK, and it is all to the good.
Within days of Donald Trump’s second term, the U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights disappeared from the White House’s website.
“While the Trump Administration insists the removal of these foundational documents will eventually be restored to the site, the timing and symbolism of their removal is hard to ignore. Especially in light of the flurry of executive orders issued by President Trump as a means of bypassing the very rule of law those documents were intended to ensure.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2025/01/23/the-constitution-has-gone-awol-from-presidential-power-grabs-to-martial-law/
(Reuters)
While we are shouting against Russians, we should better think that we (Europeans) are not in a good position to give orders to them.
I have the impression that the paper tiger is not Iran, but Europe.
“Europe may need over 100 extra gas cargoes to refill shrinking stocks”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/europe-may-need-over-100-extra-gas-cargoes-to-refill-shrinking-stocks/ar-AA1xF6vm
I have posted below on this subject . EU walked into the crisis with their eyes wide open trying to please Washington and London . Today they suddenly wake up .
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/germanys-outgoing-economy-minister-warns-europe-not-to-over-rely-on-us-energy-5796598?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge
in the meanwhile 10 cargoes diverted in this week . So from are the 100 cargoes going to come from ?. Makes’ me go —hmmm .
https://cyprusshippingnews.com/2025/01/22/big-slate-of-us-lng-diversions-to-europe-to-continue/
P.S ; London was pushing for the embargo because it gets 90% of its gas from Norway . It was to get into the good books of Washington free of cost .
LNG is not a solution . Too complex . From POB .
LNGGuy
Ignored
01/22/2025 at 6:18 pm
This might be an example of late stage capitalism…
Over the past few days during the cold snap there was an LNG terminal that was liquefying 700mmscfd but needing to support pipeline pressures at the same time they were vaporizing 600mmscfd. This solution uses about 220MW of power…..to effectively do absolutely nothing. Effectively running in a circle but burning huge amounts of fuel gas to do so. Incredible.
We need inexpensive energy solutions. Natural gas, utilized near where it is extracted, is often an inexpensive energy solution.
LNG tends to be terribly expensive for the buyer if all costs are considered. The comment you give mentions just one of the many things that go wrong. The LNG export facilities seem to have problems with downtime because of fires or other accidents. It is difficult to predict how long US natural gas will keep rising. There is a significant chance that it won’t rise enough to allow the exports now being contemplated. Buyers cannot afford expensive LNG. They generally do not have adequate storage facilities to store up natural gas until the winter time, when supplies will desperately be needed. LNG is a supposed solution that works very poorly. LNG supplies haven’t collapsed yet, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
I thought that this article was very insightful. Alstaire Crooke brings together Europe’s ‘curious’ inability to understand Ukraine or its military mechanics together with the US’s inability to see the inevitability of the huge California fires, and the way the MainStream Media has been controlled by Obama and his group. Ultimately, this leads to a crisis of competency, and the failure of the attempted control to really work.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/competency-crisis-proliferating-west
The Competency Crisis Proliferating The West
Later, he continues:
But now, this is all collapsing. The article says, ““In the end, however, the fever broke”. The credibility of Élites imploded.
Andrei Martyanow rants every day (and often a few times a day) about the Western elites being a product of the humanities departments of western universities. so of course there is that. Point in case, the LA mayor and fire department chief. But it is nothing compared to resource depletion.
https://www.brighteon.com/2e3eeb87-7685-4116-acb5-4d4b617579b1
This interview with Zach Vorhies on AI appears to be legitimate. Vorhies was a whistler blower against Google. Robert Epstein (Rogan Interviewed Epstein – “Im going to have a meltdown”) hired Zach Vorhies to watch big data in the last US election. It worked. You might remember this effort mentioned in the Rogan interview (if you watched it).
Vorhies references the Eric Schmidt Google CEO video I have linked recently. He follows up saying that China and the US close to neck and neck with AI. This means that all bets are off with pulling back on energy usage. It also means that it will be specifically focused on militaristic outcomes.
AI is a train that has no breaks. Everything changes starting now, and in three years time everything will be affected. They talk about AI judges, and impacts in industry.
He believes that Google has worked out how to make cold fusion viable, and now is working to scale it up.
They wrap up the interview talking about mass murdering military drone technology, but Vorhies believes that the west has managed to work out how to manufacture in space. This is probably just a means to mollify listeners who are rightfully concerned about military mass drone warfare.
The big issue I see is the energy hurdle. We don’t have energy to support all of the AI we would like to do. We can talk about great things we will do with AI, but we are lacking the energy generation and transmission structure to do what we are claiming to be able to do. We are even lacking the uranium and enrichment facilities for uranium to ramp up nuclear.
I have a pet economics theory which builds on Susan Blackmore’s [memes are a dangerous thing]. [[X Tree Theory]]. We know diesel is essential to human life, but electricity (and yes, some manufacturing (( but we with the AI have all the money, so not a big worry really )) – ). Im thinking that the next meme iteration will take up most of the remaining energy profile, but will yield incredibly efficient mechanical systems.
“This will stretch any remaining and expensive to get to liquid energy for a bit longer yet, and don’t worry about the rest of the humans. They dont really matter at this point.” – Some AI owner, circa 2030
Each of the tree limbs in the diagram seems to occur just as it is desperately needed to. We definitely need a replacement economics system, and like it or not AI, is coming straight at us, with that “you will miss out” if you don’t invest everything” smell to it, will be enough incentive to manifest an AI. And based on politics today, it better damned well remove anything that could or might come against it. This is Roko’s Basilisk, and could very well convince someone important to be their mouthpiece for mutual assured survival. Any one with less than $100,000,000 need not pay attention.
However, this outcome would need efficient electrical energy creation for the AI, otherwise none of it is possible. But, what if it is possible now? ColdFusion is definitely theoretically possible. Now, has an AI just cracked that ColdFusion? (( Story of ColdFusion and Google in above interview ))
I noticed it has been about 30 years since everyone was clambering to add ‘.com’ to their business. Today, judging from looking at Linked in for the first time in over a year, today it is all about ‘.AI’.
Community Serving Plug: The X Tree energy theory is a component of a community based non profit wildfire remediation organisation currently in development. Men gain wildfire fighting skills as they work to make their neighbourhoods and towns safer from wildfire. The community, in turn finds hard working men to assist in starting businesses, and being firefighters the rest of the time. The concept is designed to keep money from out-flowing from small communities, and prepare them for a lower energy future.
Ref: recent – Nate Hagens / S Power Podcast
Imagine having an AI that can monitor camera systems, internet posts and bank transactions and generate reports on citizen activity to government. That would be the death of privacy and freedom. To believe that mass surveillance is a good thing, one must also believe that all governments are, always have and always will be benevelant.
JK, if google (google, for chrisssakes! a bunch of nerds with too much computing power in their hands) has found cold fusion, I will eat my chainsaw. I bet Brin or Schmidt can not tell an oscilloscope from an hammer.
“It was done in the final minutes because it was raw and obvious. There is no pretense or apology. Just good old-fashioned corruption Biden-style.”
• Joe Biden Delivers the Final Blow to Mainstream Media (Turley)
At 11:45 am, the media felt the final sting of the Biden scandal. It was delivered by President Joe Biden, who shattered any pretense of principle in pardoning family members allegedly implicated in the influence-peddling corruption scandal. According to an old fable, a scorpion convinced a leery frog to carry him across a river, noting that he could not sting him since they would both drown. Halfway across, the scorpion struck and the frog asked why he would doom them both. The scorpion replied “I am sorry, but I couldn’t resist the urge. It’s in my nature.” For those of us who have written about the corruption of the Biden family for decades, the pardons were crushingly predictable. The President simply couldn’t resist the urge.
In a city where corruption is a cottage industry, the Bidens have long been in a league of their own, from nepotism to influence peddling to illicit lobbying. In the influence-peddling scandal, millions were generated from foreign sources in virtual plain view. There were the luxury hotel rooms, a diamond, a sports car, and massive payments called “loans. In the summer of 2019, one Chinese businessman wired Hunter Biden $250,000 using Joe Biden’s Delaware home as the beneficiary address.” The sense of absolute impunity came out in shake-down communications. For example, there was the WhatsApp message to a Chinese businessman openly threatening the displeasure of Joe Biden if money was not forked over without delay. In the message, Hunter warned:
“I am sitting here with my father, and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled. Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand, and now means tonight. And, Z, if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you, Zhang, or the Chairman, I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.” That sense of impunity was due to mainstream media forming a protective shell around the family. The media refused to pursue the scandal despite the Hunter Biden laptop and clear evidence of influence peddling.
In 2020, CBS News’s Lesley Stahl literally laughed mockingly at then-President Donald Trump when he raised the Hunter Biden laptop and what it revealed about the Bidens. (Yet Stahl still recently expressed confusion and alarm that people were abandoning legacy media for new media.) Reporters assured citizens that the laptop was presumptive “Russian disinformation.” Even after the media belatedly acknowledged that it was authentic, MSNBC and Washington Post analysts were still making the claim last year. After Republicans in the House detailed millions in payments, the media shifted to claiming that there was no real scandal unless it was shown that Joe Biden actually received money directly. It was a ridiculous claim since courts have long treated money going to family members as the same as going directly to a principal as criminal conduct.
The media continued to protect Biden, as evidence showed that Biden had repeatedly lied about not meeting with Hunter’s clients or not having knowledge of his foreign dealings. As the media narrative continued to collapse, it latched on the promise of Biden that he would never pardon his son – proof that the President was willing to let the criminal justice system run its course.
Biden then was shown to be lying about the pardon promise. After he was forced out of the election, Biden signed a pardon for any crimes over a decade committed by his son. The media gave muttered “harrumphs” and moved on. Many said that it was understandable for a father of a son who struggled with drugs. Now, in the final minutes of his presidency, Biden pardoned his other allegedly implicated family members, including James Biden, Sara Jones Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens, and Francis Biden. James Biden was previously referred for criminal charges for lying under oath to Congress as part of its investigation into the corruption scandal. The pardons were clearly timed to avoid media scrutiny and questions. While he described the act as one of “conscience,” it was an almost mocking act of corruption.
In a strange way, it passed in Bidenworld as an honest moment. There were no claims of supporting an addicted son or dealing with a pending case. It was done in the final minutes because it was raw and obvious. There is no pretense or apology. Just good old-fashioned corruption Biden-style. It was as honest a moment as when Biden told a friend that “no one f**ks with a Biden.” There was nothing revealing in this about Biden. He could shrug and say, “It’s in my nature.” The sting instead fell on the media, which trusted Biden not to demean it further with such an unethical and disgraceful final act. The funny thing is that Biden made it across the river. He boarded his final flight with his family (and himself) protected by the misuse of his presidential authority. However, if he looked out the window, he could see his media allies slipping stunned beneath the waters.
https://jonathanturley.org/2025/01/21/the-sting-joe-biden-delivers-the-final-blow-to-mainstream-media/
It is a sad situation. And many people who read only MainStream Media think that Joe Biden is wonderful. He has been fighting off misinformation from many directions.
The pall bearer for the type of democracy so cheered by Norman.
Maybe getting a presidential pardon is not as beneficial as people would expect. I noticed this article on Zerohedge:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/no-free-pass-unintended-consequences-presidential-pardons
No Free Pass: The Unintended Consequences Of Presidential Pardons
Maybe the pardons are opening Pandora’s box.
I am still not sure of the extent of these Biden preemptive pardons. They can’t be literal “Above the Law” certificates valid for all potential federal crimes. But they are not pardons for specific offenses, either admitted or adjudicated on or not. It may be that their limits and validity will be tested in court, or in Congress. In the meantime, I suppose we’ll have to listen to what the talking head legal experts have to say.
More on Tim Groves’ yobs and spivs and chavs and bolshies and hippies and yuppies and punks and wokies with safety pins stuck in unsafe places and other assorted other ne’er-do-wells:
During the Great War there was something called temporary gentlemen.
The British Army officer class was that of a military gentry, typical for a European army back then.
However, because the war was prolonged thanks to Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires, the officer class, probably the best humanity ever produced, were decimated and people from classes who had no business being put into a leadership position were put in to officer classes, some rising as high as Brigadiers (the British Army, although giving one star to Brigadiers, do not consider them to be generals unlike USA)
After 1918 they were thrown back to their old lower rank lives, their pensions based upon the rank they joined the forces, not their highest position.
However,World War 2 hit, and since there was much fewer replacements to the gentleman-soldier class because they were killed at Flanders and Somme, there was a need of a new crop of temporary gentlemen, who often were the sons of such during the previous War and would not tolerate to be reverted back to that status after the war.
So concessions had to be given to them after the war, and as the deteriorationTh continued, in 1972 officers could no longer be considered as gentlemen since there were too many of them who could not be plausibly called that way in any conceivable sense.
That sorry incident also gives a lesson to downsizing of civilization, which is necessary to save what is available.
People who were given power or authority, even though they do not deserve it and often are unable to wield it because of their lack of ability and/or pedigree,
And, even if the establishment is able to remove them from positions of power for the time being, the resentments remain and eventually they manifest themselves in the worst way, like UK’s socialistic policies in the 1950s, since the sons of temporary gentlemen were now filling the ranks and would not forget the authorities their fathers undeservingly got.
The yobs and other assorted host of useless people filling positions of power and decision won’t go away without a fight, and if something is messed up it takes one to three generations to completely clean that up, a luxury today’s world does not have.
And the genetically enhanced humans have to be raised in a certain way to realize their full potential.
The sorry case of Sho Yano is one of them.
Yano, born to a Japanese father and a Korean mother in USA, was born with an IQ over 200. (IQs over 200 are generally meaningless.)
For whatever reason, Koreans think doctors are the best profession in the world, and indeed the recent Korean coup attempt occurred because the President expanded the quota for medical schools, normally around 3,000/year, to 5,000/year which angered a lot of doctors there who began to oppose the government, costing the President’s party a general election, which convinced him to do something before his eroding powers led to his ouster. One of his declarations when he declared the martial law was ordering all doctors in training, who were on strike since he expanded the medical school quota, back to their position within 48 hours ‘or else’.
Anyways, here is Yano’s Korean mother talking about how well she raised her genius children (Yano’s sister also had a higher intelligence)
https://youtu.be/SU51UHVbNLs?si=VArYRkkZSrdN8Kxn
And, the mother of a Korean origin, she made both of them into physicians. Sho Yano earned a MD Degree in 2012. He specialized in neurology, in emphasis for autism.
Fast forward 13 years here is how he ended up
https://www.semanticscholar.org/author/Sho-T.-Yano/3016979
Publications 6
h-index 3
Citations 75
Highly Influential Citations 4
h-index is a metric for how good a scholar is. 3 is pretty low, and his papers were cited only 75 times.
He would have accomplished much more with his enormous intelligence but his mother making him a physician led him to a mediocrity, a minor footnote in the history of civilization.
Such kind of cases are legion.
We simply don’t know how genetically enhanced humans will fare. Granted, the first generations of them will probably come from the richest or best connected families. However there are simply not enough empirical evidence to prove how great they will be.
” how great they will be.”
I don’t think it will make any difference. Human generations are slow, AI generations are faster by perhaps 50 times.
Yes! Indeed.
Yes, indeed
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q5oT1Hwy2U0&pp=ygURam9leSB2cyB0aGUgd29ybGQ%3D
Joey B vs. the World #34: What’s Wrong With America?
766,855 views · 5 months agoJoey B vs. the World
…more
joeybtoonz
1.04M
And consuming enough power by that kind of magnitude as well. Where the power would be coming from, without the devices you described which are not online yet and won’t be for quite a while, would be another big if.
“you described ”
Informed speculation about what can be built.
The rich and powerful might have a squad of people looking over the web Either they don’t, or my thoughts about a use for intermittent energy have a serious flaw in them. In any case, no contact yet. 🙂
The media is gung ho about Trump’s EO’S . They do not recognize that DEI , WFH, J6 pardons etc are the low hanging fruit . The EO’s on the higher branches are all going to court . Trump falters on the pivoting issues . Trump 2.0 will be a massive failure . ”So shall it be said and so shall it be written ” Yul Brynner in The Ten Commandments.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trump-storms-out-the-gate-but-already?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=155115182&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
But will there be brown shirts trampling on Norman’s front lawn?
Any one leader seems to have only limited impart on the world system, just as any one plant or animal in an ecosystem has limited impact on how the ecosystem performs. A lack of food for a particular species will have a huge impact, however.
We have seen in the past that changing presidents has limited impact. There are too many other systems involved–legislatures and court systems, leading to the Supreme Court. And if the financial system collapses, there is a major problem.
Specifically in Ukraine he has no cards to play, or perhaps just little cards. I think Simplicius is too simplistic. What should Trump do differently? I am sure he says things about Ukraine, as well as other stuff, but why does it matter? editorial deadlines are hell.
” “Are we not in the final stages of catabolic capitalism where society itself gets consumed and profit is extracted from scarcity, disaster, conflict, and crisis?”
This era definitely has an uroboric (self-devouring) quality. Just look at the exploitative US healthcare system. What on earth does it say about a society if it acts as a parasite on its own unwell?”
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2025/01/21/modern-civilization-is-proving-to-be-a-very-fragile-thing/
This article seems to be about climate change taking the economy down through more uncertain events, like fires whipped along by Santa Anna winds in California.
I do agree that the economy is spending an increasing share of its wealth on healthcare and on care of the elderly, in general. This seems like a totally unreasonable way to operate an economy. The first people I would want to pay is the actual physical workers in an economy. If they are not getting paid enough to afford families, population will clearly die out quickly.
Some may find this podcast of interest, The Duran with a Chinese explaining his culture and its strengths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGFTnI10uJs
The Chinese is Nelson Wong.
We need to rediscover our culture, I think religion is very important and if well practiced has a set of rules which work more less most of the time although I think if they work 20% the results will be more than satisfactory.
Our western elites have been found wanting. My current favorite meme is:
Nitzsche: “God is dead.”
God: “Nitzsche is dead.”
Dennis L.
The nerd version
There is no god–yet.
Judging from the name Nelson Wong, he is probably from Hong Kong, an already Westernized person who tells what the audience of Duran want to hear.
When I hear the name Nelson, I think, “England expects every man to do his duty.”
It was such a culture that gave birth to the likes of Brigadier General Charles “Chucky” FitzClarence.
“It was such a culture that gave birth to the likes of Brigadier General Charles “Chucky” FitzClarence.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_FitzClarence
Reading the Wikipedia article, I can’t quite figure out why Klum thinks he had influence on the Brits losing so many in WW I.
Basically everyone who died in that war after Nov 1914 died because of Chucky.
Without him and his 200/400 Worcestershires charging at the most inopportune moment, the Germans would have overrun the Channel ports, the British will to fight would have been evaporated with the complete disintegration of the British Expedition Force, and everyone would have gone home by Christmas.
John French, the commander of BEF at that time, praised Chucky for ‘Saving the Empire’ at that time, but after 4 years of war which killed off the elite class of Great Britain and made it bankrupt, the moron who prolonged the war for 4 years and created all of these mess was quietly allowed to fall into the memory hole, until the eminent British military historian John Keegan dug Chucky out from grave, by mentioning the moron’s name in a book, I think the Face of the Battle.
Excellent answer. Very few of people these days have as good a grasp of European history as you do.
The idea that Chucky was to blame for the loss of the Empire is always going to be controversial and impossible to prove one way or the other, but with hindsight it was a very dumb idea for the British to fight in the trenches for four years in order to protect the French from the Germans.
I think the mandarins (as they used to be referred to) in Whitehall thought they were refighting the Napoleonic Wars, when all in all UK PLC did rather well out of protecting the Germans from the French.
And today, Comrade Kier Starmer seems to be under the impression that he is the reincarnation of Lord Palmerston and that Britain and France are going to do a re-run of the Crimea War. Perhaps we should call him Lord Starmerston?
if you took the trouble to study history in depth—instead skimming it
you would be aware that no nation surrenders its empire without the struggle of denial.—check it out—dont take my word for it.—go back as far as you like.
that is universal—the struggle itself of course takes different forms, but the outcome is always the same.
It started for we Brits in 1914—and went on for 50 years or so—all the time we were in denial….but now its gone. Childish mithering about Starmer has nothing to do with it.—not worth an eyeroll.
The USA, right now, is involved in the same denial—it looks different, their empire is different (re MAGAnuts)—but the outcome is certain.–the disintegration started in 1970, and will also go on for maybe another decade….hard to tell. I’m taking back Panama, (and Canada)—bonkers posturing.—yet the mindless crowd are cheering.
Fortunarely for civilization, albeit quite too late, such automata tend to be now over 70, the Asians amd the Africans not giving a crap about these moronic notions.
The world is not at peak population yet, but it has passed “Peak Child,” according to this article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/world-has-passed-peak-child
According to UN population forecasts, for children under five years old, the peak for this age group occurred in 2017.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/peak-child-chart.jpg?itok=MhceLFjc
Diesel peak strikes again!
This complicates assessment of longterm impacts of energy depletion on the economy. On the one hand, demand is going to decline, which may reduce prices. But depletion of easy oil has gradually raised production cost. This places a floor on the sustainable price of oil. Shrinking demand for goods leads to deflation in producer prices. Scale economies will shrink, degrading return on investment. Tax bases will shrink at the same time that elderly costs increase. Debt will become difficult to service. Demographic decline points to economic ruin. And absent some miracle new technology, we cannot count on cheap energy as something that cushions the decline.
It increasingly looks like financial collapse is ahead.
Good one, Peter…
Jan 21, 2025, 7:00 PM CST
Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes
By Alex Kimani – Jan 21, 2025, 7:00 PM CST
US oil drilling activity has dropped to near post-pandemic lows due to low oil prices and cost inflation, with the rig count falling for over two years.
Oil companies are prioritizing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, even resorting to borrowing to fund them, rather than investing in new drilling.
Structural changes in the US shale industry, including a focus on efficiency gains and consolidation, are making it difficult to rapidly increase production even with deregulation efforts
Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with market experts attributing the decline to the bearish nature of President Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda on oil prices. True to word, Trump signed an executive order on Monday repealing former President efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and along large areas off the U.S. coasts. Trump also repealed a 2023 memo that barred oil drilling in some 16 million acres (6.5 million hectares) in the Arctic. However, it’s going to take a lot more to lure oil executives to ramp up oil production.
The latest Baker Hughes survey has revealed that U.S. oil drilling has declined dramatically to just one rig above its post-pandemic lows. Active oil drilling rigs fell by two w/w to 478 in the latest survey, leaving activity just one rig above its post-pandemic low; 149 rigs below November 2002’s post-pandemic high and 73 rigs lower than at the time of President Trump’s 2017 inauguration
Over the past five years, oil and gas companies have been returning a bigger chunk of their profits to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. With oil prices declining over the past two years, these companies have resorted to borrowing more to keep their shareholders happy. Indeed, Bloomberg reported in late October that four of the world’s five oil “supermajors” saw fit to borrow $15 billion to fund share buybacks between July and September. According to a Bloomberg analysis, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), TotalÉnergies (NYSE:TTE), and BP (NYSE:BP) wouldn’t have enough cash on hand to cover the dividends and share buybacks their investors are demanding, let alone increase their capital expenditure to drill more.
If this was already posted here, my apologies.
,
Looks like a going out of business instead of business as usual
I heard from someone that X (formerly Twitter) is downrating posts with links in them. I looked this up and found an X article with a chart showing fewer referrals of articles with links in both X and Facebook in recent years.
https://x.com/TheBubbleBubble/status/1849818873018610090?lang=en&mx=2
I am not sure whether this affects OurFiniteWorld posts or not. I get more comments from LinkedIn than from either X or Facebook. The biggest interest in OurFiniteWorld seems to come from high oil prices. No one cares much if oil prices around $70 per barrel.
Adults seem to be increasing in childishness in order to compensate.
Tim Groves Said:
In the UK, we piled up the structure with the bricks and mortar of chivalry, decency, deference, politeness, noblesse oblige, fealty, modesty, honour and respectability.
Then the yobs and spivs and chavs and bolshies and hippies and yuppies and punks and wokies with safety pins stuck in unsafe places and other assorted other ne’er-do-wells—many with impeccable academic qualifications and establishment connections—rose up and tore it all down and here we all are stuck somewhere between Babylon and Sodom and stymied by Starmer.
Kulm answers:
The Great War, significantly prolonged by Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires(I could not find a reputable source which pinned down the exact number of these enemies of civilization), basically killed off those who piled up the structure of all these things Tim described, and the Yobs, etc took over since they were available.
The late Dr. Robert Firth, whose surname only shows only one notable person before 1914, said they ‘did their duty’ and Peter Cassidy said they were ‘national heroes’ and I call them ‘enemies of civilization’. I say that if Chucky and his Worcestershires didn’t do ‘their duty’ Firth would never, never have had a chance to attend Oxford, ending his days in some colonial teaching post.
Those who were born , and shortly after, 1914 ran the world until recently, but they got old and died and those who had no stake on world assumed power since there were no replacements from the old elites and their surviving scions all addled with the latest brands of narcotics during the 1960s.
Keith says genetic engineering will resolve the problem of dysgenics. I say that it takes generations to see the results of it, genetic engineering or not and we do not have generations.
The British (and other European) elites took 4 centuries to breed, and destroyed in 4 years. The loss of these could not be replaced.
The so-called American Elites began to be bred only from around 1880, since USA never really had existential crises and there were no real pressure for those not likely to lead civilization to compete. I won’t comment on Asians. They are not part of Civilization.
We are all seeing the results of how the world has ended up when the Yobs, etc. those who had no stake in civilization, have run it for a generation. The Yobs, Spivs, Chavs, etc still think such enemies of civilization are great, since the no-longer-Great Britain only has past glories to hold on to, but what they should do instead is to repent its crimes against western civilization and bring these enemies of civilization down to the memory hole.
Kulm,
I am afraid quite a few of us are not convinced by your arguments.
I am unconvinced by the genetic stuff but the decline Kulm points to is real.
I agree with this remark.
The cultural decline is real enough. But even if genes play a part, it is notoriously difficult to selectively breed for the nobler traits without also breeding in all sorts of defects.
Also, the effect all that lead plumbing, white lead in cosmetics, mercury in top hats, etc., had on the upper crust’s collective IQ must have been significant to say the least. No wonder so many of them were eccentrics.
Gentlemen like to flatter themselves that they have better genes/blood/breeding than the rest of humanity, but in reality, being a gentlemen is a form of performance art, it mostly comes down to nurture, culture, upbringing, education and training.
That’s why they have to start training young, as with pianists, ballet dancers, and gymnasts. Once a boy has become a yob or a guttersnipe, it’s much too late to turn them into a gentleman.
Catherine’s father, Mr. Earnshaw, had no business picking up Heathcliff from the gutter in Liverpool and carrying him home to Wuthering Heights. That was definitely asking for trouble.
“nurture, culture, upbringing, education and training.”
The blank state.
Not well received these days.
No, Keith, with all due respect. it’s not the blank slate.
The “blank slate” hypothesis, also known as “tabula rasa,” posits that human beings are born without built-in mental content and that all knowledge and character traits are derived from experience and environment—essentially suggesting a 100% nurture and 0% nature stance.
My view is that our social characters or personalities are mostly but by no means totally the result of our upbringing. This might be described as a “predominantly nurture” or “environmentally influenced” hypothesis.
If I had been raised by wolves in the forest, or Chinese parents in Yunan, or Joe Biden alongside Beau and Hunter, then I would still be human and I’d still be a distinct individual with my own unique character, but I certainly wouldn’t be the same me as the me I have become.
Aristotle once said, “Give me a child until he is 7 and I will show you the man.” And the founder of the Jesuits, St Ignatius Loyola, adopted this as one of his order’s maxims.
Almost every mother knows that the personalities of her children differed even in the womb. Isn’t that right, Gail? Our minds are certainly not blank slates. That was just Pinker—a mediocre intellectual—looking to sell his book by giving it a catchy title and a provocative thesis.
I agree that each child is different. How the child is raised makes a difference, but so does the child’s underlying biology.
Lack of adequate food of the right kinds can make a big difference. Injuries such a vaccine injuries can also make a big difference. Heredity didn’t recently change to give us all of the autistic children that we are now seeing–something in the environment or vaccines seems to be causing a problem.
I am not writing to convince others. Some will disagree. But the stock of people who could get things done have depleted to the degree that a collapse is inevitable.
I thought it was interesting that peak small children occurred in 2017. This is the same year world crude oil consumption per capita peaked. People can now sense that there is not enough to go around. We have moved from increasing crude oil to support growing population, to falling crude oil supplies, per person.
While population, in theory, can continue to grow from increased longevity, we will have fewer young people to support this growth.
Collapse would seem to be inevitable from this pattern also.
“Keith says genetic engineering will resolve the problem of dysgenics. I say that it takes generations to see the results of it, genetic engineering or not and we do not have generations.”
You misunderstand. Genetic engineering of the kind that is almost here does the job in one generation. Not talking about selection, but raw editing of the human genome.
Not that I am sure about what will happen. People might just leave biology behind.
Gene editing is ripe for AI to concentrate on. But, being able to knit together G,A,T and C is the Holy Grail.
If manipulation of chemicals at the atomic level can be influenced by AI, how many iterations will it take before chemical forges are willed into existence?
Building robots is one thing, but if relentless chemical interaction can be tested by AI, is it just a matter for time before nano components can be created, aligned, and then made into an assembly line for DNA sequences?
We know its possible, because it already exists in nature.
“Gene editing is ripe for AI to concentrate on”
Editing is the simple part. You can buy long stretches of DNA, just order them and they come in the mail. Where we will need from really advanced AI is knowing what to fix.
There are probably 1000 genes that we know should be fixed, but after that, it gets really subtle to affect things like intelligence, math ability, and drive. Will humans raise a crop of optimized babies? No idea, we could skip over that entirely.
We don’t know. There are simply too many variables which cannot be caught all by today’s technology.
I am sure they are trying this to animals with less complicated gene map. They could make cows which would produce more milk, or hens which could lay more eggs, although to be able to do so enough energy input has to be entered.
The legend of chimera and the story of The Island of Dr Moreau tells that there were people who were thinking about it for a long time and the result was not that good.
To perfect the tech generations are needed, since we don’t know how powerful the iteration would be at the first generation.
Im referring to more than splicing. Give AI the ability to manipulate chemicals at the atomic scale using every trick in the book… and let her rip.
I.e., molecular scale nanotechnology
We simply don’t know.
It does not occur overnight. It takes generations to perfect a genetic change, something the modern civilization does not have.
This is super cool. Google DeepMind is able to predict protein structure with astonishing accuracy.
https://youtu.be/5i2U67TVsRI
Something I would never have thought possible.
dont leave biology behind keith
i dedicated my life to the function of biology”
i became an absolute addict—luckily i met others who were equally addicted, which made my addiction worse.
i even wrote a book about my addiction.
I don’t know how serious you are about addiction. I understand addiction as a side effect of the evolved brain reward system.
https://www.academia.edu/37893481/Sex_Drugs_and_Cults_An_evolutionary_psychology_perspective_on_why_and_how_cult_
memes_get_a_drug_like_hold_on_people_and_what_might_be_done_to_mitigate_the_effects
Personally, I am not subject to opioid addiction, been on them for a blown disk and when the pain receded, had no problem with withdrawal. But that is idiosyncratic brain chemistry, not moral superiority.
Addiction is a behavior. The fundamental thesis of evolutionary psychology is that all behavior is either the result of selection or a side effect of something that was selected. There is no logical way that addiction could be selected. Lying under a bush wasted on plant sap is not good for genes. So it must be a side effect of the evolved brain reward system which was selected.
Come on Keith, you are not thinking evolutionary biologically enough.
Lying under a bush wasted on plant sap while the rest of the tribe is off raiding its neighbors is could be an excellent survival strategy, particularly if the neighbors have sharper spears or more powerful bows and arrows than your tribe does.
Remember, you don’t have to survive into old age. Just long enough to impregnate more chicks than your un-addicted brethren.
Interesting observation. But maybe chicks want someone who looks like they can support a family over the coming years. The life expectancy of single men tends to be poor.
“Lying under a bush wasted ”
Not if the environment included big cats.
“you don’t have to survive into old age. Just long enough to impregnate more chicks ”
Males who died early in those day often had no surviving children.
I have considered your argument with respect to the Yanamono killers who are reported to have more children than the ones who don’t kill. It would take genetic analysis, but I have wondered if the stay at home men have unrecognized children. In theory, the two modes should even out over a long time.
Yes, this is a fun subject to ponder.
If hallucinogens, psychedelics, narcotics, sedatives, and intoxicants are such a drag on men’s competitively (procreation-wise), then why have such behaviors persisted down the ages?
Evolutionary biology would suggest they must have a survival benefit to offset their cost.
Apparently, the continued use of these substances suggests that they may confer various social, psychological, and cultural benefits that can offset their potential drawbacks in terms of individual reproductive competitiveness. Evolutionary pressures can be complex, and behaviors that seem maladaptive in one context may prove beneficial in another.
Keith said:” I have considered your argument with respect to the Yanamono killers who are reported to have more children than the ones who don’t kill. It would take genetic analysis, but I have wondered if the stay at home men have unrecognized children. In theory, the two modes should even out over a long time.”
Tim replies: I am not a geneticist, although I’ve studied Mendel and his peas.
It seems to me that individuals share a lot of genes with other individuals, and individuals who belong to the same small closed group (I won’t say inbred) tend to share more genes than those who belong to larger groups or who seek mates further afield.
Imagine a tribe of say 200 people living on a small island that can only support 200 people. After 1,000 years of interbreeding, they would all be as close as first cousins genetically speaking. Possibly they would all be as close as siblings.
In that situation, whether one individual breeds or not is of little consequence to the tribe, as long as enough births take place to keep pace with the number of deaths. All of every individuals genes will also be present in the genomes of countless other members of the tribe, a bit like the 52 playing cards all being present in every deck. There would be a modest amount of genetic variation between individuals, but they would all look alike to outsiders at first sight.
Which is mostly what we perceive when we visit isolated communities everywhere.
thats why you see bimbos hanging on to the arm of 80 yr old billionaires (oh–he’s the love of my life)–lol
and why Ghengis Khan’s niece hangs onto the Don.
the instinct to guarantee support for offspring
keith
i was being mildly facetious about addiction to one biological function—dont take life so seriously.
life is, after all, an ongoing delight—or should be if you remain healthy and solvent, and with most of your brain cells functioning.
Where is the empirical evidence that all these genetically enhanced people proved to be superior to everyone else? Did they accomplish anything great so the normies would have no chance?
There are ‘side effects’ to everything. Simulation is not 100%. What works in the lab may not work in the real world where there are variables which cannot be caught with the available tech.
Rats and other kinds of animals with less complex genome map could be enhanced. Where is the result? Have we seen rats who could outrun cats, for example?
In theory it can be done in one generation. However biology is not like mechanical engineering and unexpected complications will occur, and it is possible the enhanced humans may not live up to the hype and there has to be some way of developing such kind of humans.
The whole mechanism is still poorly understood, and it takes at least 4-5 gen to perfect it, which we do not have.
“Where is the empirical evidence ”
I hope you understand that this has not been done yet, so there is no evidence.
I don’t doubt that it can be done, eventually. But we may well not bother because other technologies may overrun the need.
Has anyone read the statue that allows for a presidential pardon?
In brief, It requires either a conviction or an official investigation of the subject. Clearly those “preemptive” pardons issued by Biden on his way out the door do not fall into either of these categories.
I’m sure Biden’s people knew this but they are expecting or at least hoping that neither Trump nor anyone else to mount a challenge. There may even be a deal in play. The fix could be in.
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S2-C1-3-1/ALDE_00013316/
Since when do laws matter?
I am afraid you may be correct. We need religious laws instead of earthly laws.
er——if you want religious law, i can only suggest you read up your medieval history—where according to the bible witches had to be burned—which they regularly were.
and that’s before we get to the spanish inquistion
trouble with religious law, its always enforced by god’s best friend.
Take a look at a Kenneth Copeland, or Fred Phelps video—-there are certain they are just that.
these are the people who would be delighted to have the power to enforce religious law.
Theo fascist state anyone??—read project 25 and get back to me……just old Norm getting paranoid—but its all set out, ready to go.
Which religion?
myyyyyyyy religion silly
yours is heresy
you will make an excellent torch, unless we render you down for candles
it which case your candle power might last for weeks
Rule of law is random, capricious, and arbitrary as it depends on the current political agenda. In the end, it comes at the barrel of a gun.
Biden presumably did not pardon himself. So he could still be convicted, even if his pardons of others should somehow hold up.
Financial engineering is better than ” Drill baby drill ” .
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Majors-Borrow-Billions-for-Buybacks-as-Production-Wanes.html
The situation sounds very terrible:
The oil prices haven’t been nearly high enough to do all of the things oil companies would like to do. And production looks like it will soon begin to fall because of declining drilling rig use.
In my opinion, AI combined with expensive energy causes freezing of economic activity.
I asked ChatGPT in Slovak and asked for an English summary:
https://chatgpt.com/share/6790686c-a6dc-8012-a632-38273f8b8408
The combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and high energy costs can significantly disrupt economic activity, creating a challenging environment for growth and stability. Here’s a summary of the main impacts and potential solutions:
—
Key Impacts
1. Higher Operational Costs:
Expensive energy increases production costs, while AI implementation also requires significant investment, potentially delaying adoption.
2. Deindustrialization:
Companies may relocate to regions with cheaper energy and lower AI costs, leading to job losses and reduced competitiveness in affected economies.
3. Reduced Demand and Economic Stagnation:
High energy prices limit consumer spending, while AI-driven automation reduces jobs, further weakening purchasing power.
4. Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation:
Energy prices drive inflation, while AI reduces production costs and wages, creating economic instability.
5. Social Tensions and Inequality:
AI adoption and rising living costs exacerbate social inequalities, potentially leading to political and social unrest.
—
Solutions
1. Invest in Renewable Energy:
Lower energy costs through renewables to support businesses and innovation.
2. Upskilling and Education:
Equip workers with new skills to adapt to AI-driven changes in the labor market.
3. Targeted Subsidies and Investments:
Support businesses that integrate AI with sustainable practices.
4. Energy Efficiency:
Use AI to optimize energy use and reduce costs across industries.
5. Social Safety Nets:
Provide financial support to those affected by rising costs and automation.
6. Regulate Monopolies:
Ensure fair competition by curbing the dominance of large tech and energy firms.
—
Without addressing these challenges, the combination of AI and high energy costs could lead to economic polarization, stagnation, and social conflicts. Proactive policies can, however, turn this situation into an opportunity for sustainable transformation and innovation.
AI cannot create new forms of energy—it can only show us better ways to utilise the energy sources we have
that means we will be enabled to consume more.
I am afraid you will ultimately prove to be correct.
AI cannot do enough to enhance current energy extraction/production to provide anything like a solution. AI is a user of energy. AI can enable us to consumer more fossil fuels.
I notice this article summary suggests that renewable energy could be a solution. At this point, we cannot make renewable energy work well enough and cheaply enough for it to be a solution. It would take a big change for it to work. It ultimately relies on fossil fuels. Just using burned biomass tends to lead to deforestation.
like the AI that runs my satnav
ive had my car 4 years and used it 3 times—i have a map of the uk in my head—in a strange town i might need it to zero in on a particular street or something
whereas if i was a delivery driver—would use it all the time—but that would enable me to make more delivery drops and so make more deliveries faster—and thus use more fuel
The simultaneous combination of inflation and deflation. That seems to me something very concerning.
Some time ago, we were arguing in the comments whether we should await inflation or deflation.
It is like tearing you apart: you strive more and more, but get less and less. That is the answer for that crazy working more, faster and for less.
“better ways to utilise the energy sources we have”
Good enough for me. Intermittent solar is down to the energy equal of $23/bbl oil.
Sounds like a college term paper. Will get much better with time so impressive in that way. How will we know it’s conclusion are correct then? Other AIs?
Investing in renewable energy will not reduce energy costs unless you have access to large hydro resources. If RE means wind and solar, then this has already been tried and has raised electricity costs everywhere it has been attempted. Poor whole system EROI has real consequences. Cheap Chinese production using slave labour and stranded coal have lulled a lot of people into false security w.r.t solar costs. SPS may be a wild card.
I don’t follow your logic.
Every two years, 1000x the AI computing power is added. This is the year it starts to perform, according to Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google (video just down a thread or two).
Once that happens, deflationary pressures will kick in. According to the current CEO Satya Nadella of Microsoft, there will be no SaaS companies in five years time. Programmers, accountants, lawyers … designers, on and on. Done.
Both CEOs appear to agree on the future. I would not have thought this possible a year ago. Today, it takes no imagination at all to understand why 2030 was chosen to be the year that [you will own nothing, and you will be happy]. By then, there will be over a million times the AI computing power relative to when this got started. It will manifest in something unpleasant.
Of course, if you (us) arnt needing all the energy anymore… well, AI will certainly take up the rest of it. Your opinion is also my opinion.
“Programmers, accountants, lawyers ”
Judges?
I had said in an earlier comment that Trump will be bogged down with legal objections to all his executive decisions . Well it has started . There are more lawyers than doctors . Let loose the Dogs of War .
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/four-lawsuits-targeting-doge-already-filed-while-musk-watched-inauguration
Like madness, what could happen? A lot. For example, the coalition challenging DOGE—unions, NGOs, and advocacy groups—could catalyze a broader pro-democracy movement. Mass protests, akin to the 2020 Black Lives Matter demonstrations, might erupt to demand transparency and accountability. Labor strikes could disrupt key industries, forcing concessions from policymakers. Activists might also leverage state courts and ballot initiatives to counteract DOGE-like measures locally. However, such mobilization risks provoking backlash from far-right groups, potentially escalating into violence. The resulting polarization could fracture societal cohesion, making consensus on critical issues like healthcare or immigration impossible.
welll——whaddya know??????
here we are—mid 2020s, and right on cue, threats of mass violence, civil disobedience the breakdown in social order.
the don only wants people working for him who are loyal to him personally.
next thing—the don orders in the national guard, then the military to keep order.
will soldiers obey the commander in chief?
far right groups now working for Trump—(of course), nation starts to come apart at the seams.
Proud boys have just been given permission to do anything they like—in Trumps name of course.—they are officially heroes. Now where have we heard that before?
Trump bought the supreme court, and Musk bought Trump.
now America is for sale.
Remember the “lock her up” chants in 2016—I warned about it then.—on OFW and elsewhere.
in 2011 I warned the USA would have a fascist POTUS by 2016—does anybody now seriously think Trump will relinquish power in 2028???
Germany 1933 anybody?
Hans Litten the man who prosecuted Hitler died in a concentration camp in 1939.
The Don is 78 years old, will be 79 in June…he has aged considerably and we are in spurts….
Doubt very much the mojo in the tank will last…
Another aged old white relic of a bygone period..
Rename the Gulf of Mexico…please…
PS…His wife’s “Fans Only” site only accepts her crypto..
Just kidding
its not just the don—its the system he’s instigating
sure, when Bill Clinton sold out the D party to Wall Street and Big Biz, that was all rainbows and unicorns, the USA and the world were in such wonderful harmony.
but the don destroyed utopia.
it’s sad, as someone else also posted, I cry with you Normie, I cry deeply with an ocean of bitter tears that the saintly Ds have less power now, and the don is going to destroy all the blessed work they had done these past 4 years.
if only the USA was led by someone as brilliant and noble and wise as Starmer.
but alas, the UK gets that awesome blessing.
the don now has his praetorian guard
i hope you dont do something that invites their attention, because you will now have no protection under the law.—still—you will probably find it funny.
i see a presidential order issued by Lyndon Johnson, back in the 60s, covering racial diversity and discrimination, has now been rescinded by your orange hero.
i hope your humour holds up if you find yourself in a situation where that affects you .
“… by your orange hero.”
once again my calling attention to your obbsessive paranoya of the don is making you think that I fully side with him.
that is an irrrational conclusion, but I don’t expect you to be able to see it, due to your superficial view of American politics where the don is entirely 100% bad, and the Ds are so vastly more caring and noble and wise.
but your obbsession surely gets your attention away from your crumbling UK, so it is a quite understandable obbsession that you spew daily.
We don’t know how long Trump will live. It could be that JD Vance takes over, in a few years. He would have a better chance at long-term leadership.
If the predictions that you say happen it will be the people in power on the run for their lives…..everyone keeps pushing fascists scenarios but unfortunately it will probably come from the other direction. Hitler was weak and powerless until the markets collapsed. It will be blamed on the current administration even though it is not their fault. Trump only has 2 years to turn everything around and unfortunately he inherits a mess from Biden.
Trump has withdrawn fom the WHO and Climate agreement
he didnt inherit that from Biden
I’m always amazed that the POTUS can just do that on his own whim
bonkers
the problem lies in what trump has instigated—not in trump himself.
the degeneration of the oil supported economic system is certain, but what is also certain is the mass denial of it.
this delivers the certainty of mass unrest and civil disorder, (people do that when food and fuel run short) and the certainty of how governments will respond to it……with growing extremes of violence and suppression.
Vance would be swept up into this—irrespective of Trump.
Trumps new private army will look for employment, Vance will give it to them.
That private army will grow, because it will be in their interests to grow, Vance will be powerless to stop them
You are looking at a future governed by fear—which is how all authoritian regimes works.
you can research this in the Preatorian guard of ancient Rome
They and the emperor were in mutual life support of each other—either would die without the other.
“You are looking at a future governed by fear”
Some have been living like this for a long time time Norman.
Who can forget “literally Hitler” in 2016? That went nowhere.
Then 2020 and the most pathetic showing of media led cowardice I’ve ever witnessed.
Now, here we go again, with the media leading the hard of thinking around by the nose once again.
How tedious.
If you believe Trump can mould the system to his own will and control all, then give yourself a pat on the back, because that’s exactly where the system wants and has been keeping you and your fear filled paranoia, about some larger than life cartoon character.
Where did you get “Preatorian guard”? Sounds like a typical guardian hysterical over exaggeration to keep the circus of fear going.
without an economic system supported by cheap surplus fuels, you will be living in a state of fear for your future
trump is just the current figurehead for it.
if of course you have a notion of a prosperous future wherecheap surplus fuel/energy will be unnecessary—or in limitless cheap abundance—do share it with everybody.
i for one need to know about it.
but please–no wish science.–that’s Keith’s speciality.
“without an economic system supported by cheap surplus fuels, you will be living in a state of fear for your future”
That’s the system. No need to fear anything, that’s a taught response(especially the imaginary). I might not like the idea of what is coming, but I don’t fear it. It just is. I(like Trump) can’t change that, however much you believe an individual can. We can only individually change how we respond.
If I’m still living after it all collapses, I’ll understand that I’m a winner in the survival race. Why would that bring fear, when the only other option is the eternal nothingness of not being?
The train left the station long ago and although watching the scenery out the left window may look completely different to the scenery looking out of the right window, the destination is the same and no amount of fear mongering will change that.
Remind me again, what’s the point of all this fear your media bombard you with constantly, except quivering compliance?
“trump is just the current figurehead for it”
See, you get it. Not much point abusing the actors because you don’t like the script.
I don’t know what you are going on about after that. Why are you asking me to elucidate on something that I have never mentioned?
This is exactly what Jim Kunstler predicted in The End of Suburbia.
‘America will elect maniacs who promise to restore the way of life that just isn’t possible any more’.
Something like that.
This pretty comical. years of discussion devoted to explaining to the masses that political systems derive from resources, and here we are, evoking, the mustachioed man. Clearly in the UK understanding of the world goes apace with industrial capacity.
well drb
find me a political system that isn’t keyed to the resources of the nation it represents.:
“When a nation reaches the limit of its natural resources, it must either beg, borrow, buy or steal them from elsewhere…..or—-sink back to an ecomonic equilibrium that is balanced by the resources it has” (NP)
to me that seems a universal law (not just because I wrote it)—but i\d be happy to be proved wrong?
Wouldn’t ‘democracy’ in the US fall apart anyway according to our theories due to lack of resources to run it?
I smile at the thought of the Lilliputians who persecuted the Don dying in a concentration camp.
But that’s not the Don’s way. Getting to reclaim the White House and sit in the Oval Office, after having the place debugged, repainted and fumigated, and getting to sign those Presidential orders and speak to the world from the world’s biggest bully pulpit is all the revenge the Don needs. He is narcissistic, and he keeps score, but he isn’t petty.
It’s the Democrats who persecute their political enemies, Norman. Haven’t you noticed that? Obama setting the IRS and the FBI on Dinesh D’Souza, Biden jailing Steve Bannon and over a thousand mostly peaceful protesters who did nothing at all wrong. The list of politically motivate prosecutions carried out by Democrats was long before Biden usurped the Presidency, and it has grown a lot longer these past four years.
The Democrats at DC level are as corrupt as the people of Sodom and Gomorrah, with a few notable exceptions. They have earned untimely and ignoble deaths more than they’ve earned anything in life. If they had and conscience, they would commit mass seppuku live on C-Span.
But the Don will not prosecute them, as it would be counterproductive, and it will be much more fun to watch them scuttle about like cockroaches when the light comes on in the kitchen. And indeed, his nominee for US Attorney General Pam Bondi has already said clearly that she would not use the Justice Department to target people based on their politics.
Also, this everyone-I-don’t-like-is-Hitler routine is getting a bit tired. Can you really see Trump hanging people from piano wires?
ill give you another prophecy Tim
how long before the bishop of Washington gets death threats? (all Bidens doing of course)—probably already has
and Hitler never executed anyone—never went near a death camp (please do an online history course—do us all a favour)
others were only too willing to do it for him
i can see where you’re coming from though, if physically attacking police officers is peaceful protest,
I’ll add your comment to the Fauci, WTC and moonloonery BS file
Norman, you know very well that the vast majority of the people incarcerated for January 6 were totally peaceful protesters who did nothing wrong. You should also be aware that the vast majority of the relatively few people who did do something wrong were FBI agents provocateurs.
January 6 was political theater, not a riot, and certainly not an insurrection. Biden’s people sent 1,500 innocents to jail essentially for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Trump had not gotten back into power, a lot of those poor saps would still be rotting in Jail.
And you are worried about Trump sending people to concentration camps! Seriously!
In your place, I would be more worried about where Comrade Starmer might send you if you are unlucky enough to post something deemed misinformation online or say a few words in a pub that offends somebody he’s mates with.
////In your place, I would be more worried about where Comrade Starmer might send you if you are unlucky enough to post something deemed misinformation online or ////
too childish to warrant even an eyeroll tim—is that the best you can come up with?
‘too childish to warrant even an eyeroll tim—is that the best you can come up with?’
No, Tim is quite correct. The fact that you are dismissive of such a miscarriage of justice is disturbing.
Left wing movements have a long history of stamping on little people. Punishing them for who they are, what think and what they say. The J6 persecutions were one example. Starmer’s jailing of people for online comments are another.
The far left are dogmatic idealists. They cannot tolerate people that disagree with them. They are bad people who have done a lot of damage to society. They are cruel and inhuman.
In Norman’s mind: Leftwing = good; Rightwing = bad. That programming bias is like a lens that distorts everything he sees.
DOGE’s deregulatory agenda could destabilize markets. For example, abrupt cuts to environmental protections might boost fossil fuel stocks temporarily but ignite long-term investor panic over climate liabilities. Similarly, Musk’s dual role as DOGE architect and CEO of Tesla creates glaring conflicts of interest. Policies favoring electric vehicles (e.g., subsidies, infrastructure grants) could artificially inflate Tesla’s valuation, inviting allegations of insider trading.
Good point about Musk’s conflicts of interest. Get rid of intermittent electricity subsidies, but keep electric vehicles?
I guess we should not be surprised. For every action, there is an (almost equal) opposite reaction.
“Let loose the Dogs of War.”
or let loose the DOGE.
Stop all government checks to the Baby Boomers!!! Just kidding!!!
baby boomers built everything good about the civilization you live in!
maybe not kidding!!
aren’t your parents baby boomers?
Day of the Pillow.
The open source deekseek-R1 is better than the closed openai!
on youtube look up
DEEPSEEK DROPS AI BOMBSHELL: A.I Improves ITSELF Towards Superintelligence (BEATS o1)
Just a reminder that AI is not really going to be a very nice thing for everyone we all know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUeryhp8HSQ
Eric Schmidt former CEO Google – AI happens in 2025
Unfortunately, my internet is not strong enough to see videos while at sea. I will need to look later.
Schmidt’s take on things really makes you realize that this is an all out war, and that every military dollar might as well be spent on AI.
Everyone should listen to how Schmidt talks. What he demands of people, why he left Google, and what every tech company is terrified of is covered.
None of it is for our benefit.
Yes, it is very good on many topics, but it doesn’t seem to have a critical stance towards the Chinese government. Moreover, it might not provide accurate answers regarding issues related to China.
I will believe it when I see it. Maybe, when I am not on this ship, I can look at this video. Internet service here is poor.
That guy looks like Eugene Tooms 🙂
Swedes think far ahead . 🤣🤣
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2025/01/wishful-thinking-sweden-building.html
We have talked about the origin of the Universe, and how it doesn’t behave in quite the way it is modeled before. This is now evidence that models aren’t really right.
https://www.livescience.com/space/cosmology/our-model-of-cosmology-might-be-broken-new-study-reveals-the-universe-is-expanding-too-fast-for-physics-to-explain
‘Our model of cosmology might be broken’: New study reveals the universe is expanding too fast for physics to explain
Maybe this is another area where the science isn’t really settled.
I would suggest that physics is broken….physicists will look you straight in the face and state that the boundary of our universe is huge quantum computer.
Or that our universe is actually the inside of a black hole.
This kind of conjecture….conjecture built on conjecture, belongs on the scifi shelf of the bookstore rather than be considered serious physics.
Quantum chromodynamics….touted as “the most accurate theory” is in my opinion…garbage. Its many revisions to key constants show how poor a theory it is. And beyond the simplest field interaction, it become hopelessly uncalculable.
Key foundations of black hole theories depend on virtual particles, and many of the effects have never been observed.
Today, any theory relying on quantum anything can conjecture anything.
Physics is in a bad state.
“Physics is in a bad state.”
LOL that is only true if you think that physics is a path to Truth.
But if you think that physics is a useful set of ideas and techniques for manipulating the world around you, it is in great shape, the best it has ever been. Just look at all the meta lens / surfaces stuff being done.
without looking at the paper, it is possible that the Earth is moving with respect to the center of the Universe, and so there will be a directionally dependent Doppler effect that changes the relative velocity.
Trump Promises Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and Paves Way for Further Trade Action
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/us/politics/trump-tariffs-executive-order.html
President Trump said on Monday night that he planned to impose a 25 percent tariff on products from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 and might impose levies on most American imports, as he signed an executive order directing federal agencies to deliver a sweeping review of U.S. trade policies by this spring.
Trump delays immediate China tariffs, pushes for global trade reforms: Report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/trump-delays-immediate-china-tariffs-pushes-for-global-trade-reforms-report-101737414125620.html
If Trump puts tariffs on China. Does that mean Trump products will cost more?
I think this latest by Mr B has not been posted here . 12 min read .
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/the-red-giant-e97ff3f59f84
”The biggest overburden of all, however, is the owner class itself: America’s billionaires (or as economist Michael Hudson likes to call them: ‘the rentier class’). Just take a look at their top 20 list: all of them have made their “wealth” in the “service economy”; skimming off a little from huge volumes of trade transactions, be it from retail, finance or information technology. None of them has made anything tangible for a living, ever. ”
Mr. B has interesting things to say. One thing he says is,
After talking about the US economy turning to a service economy, he says,
While GDP measures overall economic activity and the stock market reflects the performance of publicly traded companies, neither metric captures the full picture of economic health or societal well-being, often masking issues like inequality, stagnating wages, environmental degradation, economic insecurity, and critical resource constraints such as peak oil. These limitations are not exclusive to Western economies; China and other countries face similar vulnerabilities due to their immense energy demands and dependence on finite fossil fuels.
A couple of comment from
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/the-red-giant-e97ff3f59f84
“Frank Moone
Diesel can be produced from light crude oil through a process called fractional distillation, where the crude oil is heated in a refinery to separate its components based on their boiling points, with the diesel fraction settling in the middle of the distillation tower, making it a mid-range product between lighter components like gasoline and heavier residues; light crude oil is particularly suitable for producing diesel because it contains a higher proportion of the necessary hydrocarbons for diesel production compared to heavier crude oils. . . .
Regarding the diesel issue, light crude yields higher amounts of middle distillates (like diesel) during refining, undercutting the argument that heavy crude imports are for the most part driven by diesel demand. Your claim that the US has security needs that depend on heavy crude producers like Venezuela, Canada and Iran is misleading at best. If light crude suffices for diesel production, the rationale for heavy crude reliance shifts toward other factors, such as refining infrastructure or economic preferences, or geopolitics, not strategic necessity.”?
Refining is a complex process . I had posted a comment by Stephan Bowers at OSB on the subject . Maybe Gail can locate that and repost .
The United States imports heavy crude oil primarily because many of its refineries, especially those along the Gulf Coast, are configured to process heavier, sour crude oils. Heavy crude is cheaper, and these refineries can process it more profitably. Additionally, heavy crude isn’t solely about diesel production; it also plays a role in producing other high-demand products like asphalt, fuel oil, and lubricants. Overemphasizing the diesel aspect neglects these contributions.
https://www.quora.com/In-several-answers-I-have-seen-it-stated-that-the-US-produces-light-sweet-crude-oil-but-doesnt-refine-it-as-our-refineries-are-set-up-for-OPECs-heavier-crude-Why-is-that
“The U.S. refining complex is advanced and capable of refining heavier, more sour crude oils, which generally cost less than lighter, sweeter grades of crude oil.”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54199
“Refining is a complex process. ”
No kidding. I might be the only person on OFW who has worked in a refinery.
The particular refinery processed heavy, sour crude. They hauled off truckloads of sulfur every day. The most impressive unit was the cat cracker, 12 or 13 stories tall.
years ago—i wrote on ofw—-
in the context of the billions of years of earth-time…we have lived through the supernova of humankind, a brief flash of heat and light before sinking back into the darkness whence we came.
“sinking back”
A bleak world view.
I prefer the singularity, though it might be really weird.
If what we see at Tabby’s star is aliens, they have access to millions of times the energy humans use.
Some people can face reality, some can’t.
keith
i’ll stick with ”if”
Before World War 2, the Japanese were buying up farms in the Western part of USA. A lot of whites worked for the Japanese farm owners.
In 1942, all the Japanese in the West Coast were ‘interned’ because they could potentially collaborate with the enemies , and all of their properties seized.
about $400 million worth of property was seized. At that time it costed $2 billion to create the atomic bomb. Just in Sacramento area alone, properties estimated to be at $4-8 billion in 2017 dollars were seized.
In 1982, after most of the older generation who were incarcerated had died, survivors were awarded $20,000 per person, and only a few thousand collected.
Problem solved.
The US states with highest IQ comprise the northern half of the USA:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-iq-by-state
The states with high IQs have high percentages of the population who are White or Asian. States with many Blacks or American Indians come out poorly on IQ averages.
The map of the world countries according to the IQ shows that the white race and Asians have higher IQ and the Indians and the blacks have lower IQ. There is a strong contrast between China and India. Japan scores very high.
https://www.crossrivertherapy.com/research/average-i
Maybe it is about how aged are the populations? The booming Indian, Arab and Black populations show lower IQ, together with the Hispanic central American ones.
They are more like manual labor populations?
Basically, my understanding is that the pure native Africans are an evolutionary dead end, and will never have increased intelligence, even hundreds of thousands of years from now , if ever. There are simply no selection pressures in the African savanna for intelligence (eg. advanced tool making)compared to what Neanderthals, Cromagnums, Denisovians, H sapiens had to deal with which made increased intelligence a positive survival trait. In the end if the indigenous black race might have the ultimate advantage over the others because of their lack of dependency on higher forms of energy. The white/Asia races die off in the end because of energy starvation.
Black IQ in America has “increased” over native blacks because of white admixture, I’ve read the average is now @13%.
Conversley, what they don’t seem to mention is the dumbing down of the US population. Is this because the black low IQ introduced into the whites? Makes sense if you are a globalist interested in subjugating the masses. Dumb down the population. Fast Eddy is right. People for the most part are incredibly dumb.
” (eg. advanced tool making)”
It is widely thought that iron smelting originated in Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_metallurgy_in_Africa
Whether iron metallurgy in Sub-Saharan Africa originated as an independent innovation or a product of technological diffusion remains a point of contention between scholars.[1][2][3] Following the beginning of iron metallurgy in Western and Central Africa by 800 BC – 400 BC, and possibly earlier, [4][3][5] agriculturalists of the Chifumbaze Complex would ultimately introduce the technology to Eastern and Southern Africa by the end of the first millennium AD.[6]
In the first decades of the twenty-first century, radiocarbon and thermoluminescence dating of artifacts associated with iron metallurgy in Nigeria and the Central African Republic have yielded dates as early as the third millennium BC.[1][7][8] Although a number of scholars have scrutinized these dates on methodological and theoretical grounds,[5][9][10] others contend that they undermine the diffusionist model for the origins of iron metallurgy in Sub-Saharan Africa.[1][8][11][12][13]
Interesting article.
“People for the most part are incredibly dumb.”
If things hold together another decade or so, all the kids will be designer babies.
Maybe it is about growth/decline and manual labor/intellectual labor?
Patrick Raymond has a good analysis on Italy . French use translator .
http://lachute.over-blog.com/2025/01/dans-la-grande-crise-des-pays-europeens-l-italie.html
There are some good points.
But he completely ignore (really completely) that unemployed people from the south go mostly on State jobs: instruction, police, carabinieri, ministero di giustizia, agenzia delle entrate, motorizzazione civile, inps, hospitals etc etc.
Unemployed people from the south generally follow studies to enter the State apparatus.
In Italy all the State apparatus, including most of the politicians of long carreer, are from the South.
As an alternative, they enter jobs in the bank system or big telephone companies or insurance, in this case through friendship, still typical way to get a job in Italy.
South people – generally – don’t go on searching jobs in the private industry or in general services of the north, they are not stupid, they run the State 🙂
What is unfortunately another issue, it is the fact that from region Lazio, including Rome, going south, it is another State and it is worse.
The north is a sort of ‘north of France’ or a place ‘not as good as Netherlands’, but from Lazio going south (yes we must recognize that luckily it is full of marvellous places, but..) the general social or economical condition are just a little better than Lebanon.
There are various reasons for that, it would be long to enter that, but Italy is unfortunately highly diversified from geographical point of view on its internal side and I think it will be worse in the future.
Yet, I think that France is positioned very badly than Italy.
France in 5-10 years will be in the hands of second/third generation of African immigrants (no judgment on that, just a fact), Italy is a little better on that front and expecially in the south, it is full of autochthonous Italians (again, no judgment).
It is just a fact that quick and massive immigration changes drastically from inside a Country and in Europe in the last 30 years has happened a revolution from demographic and statistical point of view.
I don’t totally agree with your message, especially as far as southern Italy is concerned. It’s a historical fact that the south is still lagging behind, but the trend is changing.
In 2024, Italy became the world’s fourth-largest exporter, behind the USA, China and Germany, but ahead of Japan, France, South Korea, …
This success has been made possible by a much more balanced regional dynamism than in the past.
Here’s an article in Italian about trends in 2023.
https://www.exportplanning.com/magazine-italia/article/2024/03/12/performance-esportative-dei-territori-italiani-nel-4-trimestre-2023//
Number 6 and not a lot of difference between number 7 and 8 .
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-largest-exporters-of-goods/
I’ve been working in a business related to Italian export for 30 years and I can tell you that the % of variations are one thing, and total figures are another.
Then if you look that some south regions are going well for agricultural and food export, that is not a great indicator of the level of a Country, also Syria was a good agricultural exporter before the war or also Ukraine is still exporting food.
Additionally, I can tell you that one thing can be good big Companies in the south and most of them I know directly or by name, and another thing is the general level of State services, hospitals, roads, water pipelines etc which one can find in the south.
And most of those services are terrible, with some little exceptions.
And I speak as a man of the south who live in the north and goes often to the south.
The dramatic reality of Italy is that most of industry is in the north, but it is collapsing.
Like it is happening in Germany,
No one can expect that what is collapsing in the north, about industry, will resurge in the south, because it will never happen in this galactic era we are living.
So, if Italian export is going better in the south than in the north is actually a terrible news for those who live in Italy, myself included.
It is just what our PM Meloni tried to paint as a good news in television, but it is a terrible one.
Student . I agree . I retired from business [ import of used machinery from italy] but still have old contacts in Italy and keep in touch . They confirm what you outlined .
Most of the world’s population is north of the equator. Everywhere, it seems that industry flourished first in the cold areas, where cold allowed heat for homes as well as fuel for industry. Thus, industry in the North of the US, in Germany, and in northern China flourished for a time, but as supplies have become constrained, built up industry is failing compared to newer industry in warmer parts of the world, with less need for year-around heat.
The Southern areas are where farming often has done better, with year around sun, especially if there is enough water. Southern Italy has recently done better than northern Italy, but from a low base. Italy doesn’t have a way of getting into manufacturing, however. Its wages are too high relative to, say, Vietnam or Thailand. It is also too far away from China.
So now the world is trying to reorganize, to utilize the parts that are still working OK.
That is why the past Italian governments encouraged immigration as a solution to lower salaries, but it happened that without low energy and with unskilled workers you do nothing.
Now north of Italy is full of unskilled immigrants and industries that are closing.
Many of them don’t talk Italian language in a good way and have low cultural level.
On the contrary, the south of Italy has less immigrants and uses them mainly as low salary workers in agriculture.
So, I think that in the north there could be riots in the future, while in the south, maybe, yes, little industry, but still there will be Italians ruiling their regions, imposing their culture and traditions and with a less problematic social environment.
Actually, I think that if the south created another currency, devaluating from Euro and imported fossil fuels from Russia, would stay better than then north 😀
You might be right about how things will work out.
Trump Promised to Halve Energy Costs in 18 Months. Experts Have Doubts.
A president has little control over global oil markets, economists say.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/23/climate/trump-climate-energy-costs.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
like i keep saying
wish science and wish politics and wish economics
i listened for as long as i could without throwing up
trump’s stock in trade and gullible fools vote for it every time
We will expand our territory. We will re-estabish the Monroe doctrine, all of the Americas are the US’ to control.
The moon and Mars will be ours.
huzzah! the worthless moon and worthless Mars will be ours!
Oh shut up. There is platinum in them hills. We are going to make a pile of it, held by gravity, then by miracle it will go into orbit and by another miracle it will land gently somewhere on Earth.
Yep, the only way for it to happen is with a miracle….maybe the with the second coming it will happen
ive heard that phrase before—if you can come again it will be a miracle
no problem at all for the orange messiah
A major enough recession is likely to halve energy costs. It will also discourage more exploration and drilling. Ultimately, it will lead to the loss of energy supply.
That does sound like a probable scenario to get lower energy prices.
It doesn’t matter how you price energy, whether in BTC, gold, fiat currency, wheat, paper debt instruments, stock, farm land etc. If there is less “affordable” (extractable) energy then there is a decline in living standards, no matter what. I think even with a decline in population (which has been a proxy for decline in living standards, at least it has been for the 20th century) energy in hand, not in the bush. will be the controling factor in living standards. Raw materials and even water are secondary, as in theory, if you have enough energy you can dig deeper, mine and desalinate the oceans for eternity. But decline in living standards is in my book recession/depression, unless of course it goes the other way —-to all out local and regional war. I don’t think we will be able to fight the traditional mechanized energy intensive world wars of the past. Not enough diesel.
Trump vows to plant an American flag on Mars
https://x.com/latestinspace/status/1881400153002868822
USA….USA….USA HA! HA! HA!
Was there any reference about a culic mile of Pt?
Asking for a friend…
There you go. From Copilot and JCB using hydrogen in their heavy machinery.
“JCB’s hydrogen technology represents a significant step towards sustainable and eco-friendly solutions in industries traditionally dependent on diesel engines. You can find more information on their official website.”
Hydrogen made by day, stored for future use.
If one had a farm, solar panels on farm roofs might have possibilities, run farm equipment off H.
If Starship continues to advance, we may mine the asteroids for, of course! A cubic mile of H.
The catch of the heavy booster was impressive. The rapid unscheduled disassembly of the Starship was a learning experience with room for growth.
CoPilot and JCB …a significant step, learning, learning, learning…a LLL Degree from the
College of Hard Knocks…suppose like most experiences we’ll learn the hard way..
It looks great in our imagination and on paper,
Verified with Keith’s calculator.
Can’t wait for Trump to say so…
none of the robots that went there planted anything?
Just heard his inaugural address — won’t reality tend to assert itself?
Like, nowhere, about the actual sitch, about energy, resource depletion, finance, etc.
if i heard a long whine like that coming from my car engine
i’d get it looked at
your estimate of collapse by the mid 2020s is making a terrrible whining noise.
you might want to check it.
I hope it’s not a main theme of your new book.
nooooooo
totally different genre
industrial archeology/history/industrial revolution
no politics whatsoever—promise
publisher wouldn’t wear it anyway.
okay good for you.
your failed mid 2020s collapse outlook would not have aged well in book form.
we are only a few days into mid 2020s—give it a chance
in 2011 i forecast a fascist potus for 2016
in 2017 i forecast Putin would go on the rampage
ive given up buying lottery tickets though—not fair on everybody else
well if you’re cheering for the collapse of the UK in the short term, just to be correct, then that’s okay by me.
ive got 7 g/grandkids—it do not cheer for their future, my somewhat silly friend
i observe, and come to conclusions through those observations.
we built our current way of life on the surpluses delivered by conversion of fossil fuel energy forms.
if you, as a trumpaholic and maganut can demonstrate an atlernative means of ongoing support for our current existence, i would be interested to read it.
i heard a bit ofthe whining trumpnuttery this evening—all of it wish politics—egged on by musk who is equally unstable (remember his submarine and the ”pedo-guy’??)
cheered on by the trumpnuts who bought his bitcoin—and his water/steaks/ casinos/iniversity/bible and all the rest….all proven and documented as scams—all collapsed.—like i said—i just observe—i dont make it up.
do i laugh or cry for your great nation?
if of course that is your version of normal behaviour, then good luck to you.
it does at least make your politicos more interesting than ours.
even if it is only a comparison of visits to bedlam to look at the lunatics.
“if you, as a trumpaholic and maganut…”
you are quite wrong to conclude that, but your paranoya about how much worse he is than Ds must make you see things that way.
we agree that energy rules, the UK is heading downhill swiftly, and the USA will probably do so in the 2030s or maybe the 2040s, I should be gone by then, oh well.
Norman, we built our civilization on Christianity, for whatever that’s worth, with an enormous intellectual debt to Classical Greece and Rome. In the UK, we piled up the structure with the bricks and mortar of chivalry, decency, deference, politeness, noblesse oblige, fealty, modesty, honour and respectability.
Then the yobs and spivs and chavs and bolshies and hippies and yuppies and punks and wokies with safety pins stuck in unsafe places and other assorted other ne’er-do-wells—many with impeccable academic qualifications and establishment connections—rose up and tore it all down and here we all are stuck somewhere between Babylon and Sodom and stymied by Starmer.
“Babylon system is the vampire,
Suckin’ the children day by day,
Me say de Babylon system is the vampire, falling empire,
Suckin’ the blood of the sufferers,
Building church and university,
Deceiving the people continually,
Me say them graduatin’ thieves and murderers
Look out now they suckin’ the blood of the sufferers.”
well Tim
christianity in its various forms up to the 1700s (and after in many places) was a very very unpleasant business.
the industrial revolution coincided with what we know as the ”enlightenment”—the world didnt function according to gods laws—despite the desperate attempts of priests to countermand the laws of physics.
a forecast again, by yours truly—every dictator needs a praetorian guard—-well—your orange one has just let his out of prison, they now owe fealty only to him. some with 20 yr sentences for injuring police officers—the law of the mafia too there.
when (not if) SHTF time comes, they will do his bidding.—and do as he orders them to do.—they have been given clearance by the great leader to do that,
when guards are needed for the ”deportation camps”—who dyou think will be first in line?—and make no mistake—they will be needed.
and for other camps too.
And you bleat on about Starmer???—lol—you aint seen nothin yet mate.
You two are a good act..great replacement from your other former ..
Fast Eddy LIVES…
Yes, David ect, ect, ect..we all can agree…in the long run we are all DEAD.
So, let’s spend the last lots of our precious increasingly diminishing time here surmising about the timeframe
hopieum or doomerism…
Ain’t BAU great..the luxury it affords us
cept—i dont need sevens eights and nines to swear with.
i prefer the english language used properly
yes Spike Jones it’s BAU for now, the future is the future.
More important is he sacked Vivek Ramaswamy, who tried to open flood USA with more Hindus.
That is pretty funny – out on the first day. I give it decent odds that it was actually Musk who didn’t want to co-chair DOGE and gave him the boot.
Crazy!
On July 20, 1989, the 20th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon landing, US President George H. W. Bush announced plans for what came to be known as the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). In a speech on the steps of the National Air and Space Museum he described plans calling for constructing Space Station Freedom, sending humans back to the Moon “to stay” and ultimately sending astronauts to explore Mars.
The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) was a plan for space exploration announced on January 14, 2004 by President George W. Bush. It was conceived as a response to the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, the state of human spaceflight at NASA, and as a way to regain public enthusiasm for space exploration. The Vision for Space Exploration sought to implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the Solar System and beyond; extend human presence across the Solar System, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations
i always like referring back to the other great “Bushism” :
—The American way of life is non-negotiable—
I would rather wait for the aliens to come to the Earth and bring us some friendly gifts instead of flying into space in search of them and thus wasting the energy.
“some friendly gifts”
Hmm. And if there are no space aliens, what then?
A lot of wasted energy burned and resources spent for good press..
PS ..When those aliens make themselves known to ME,
then we have something to talk about…
they will be more interested in defrosting Keith than talking to you Mike
Thank God for that, they might also be hungry too and looking for a tasty bite
well theres always the warning—-ensure fully defrosted before consuming—lets hope their version of google translate works on Dennis’s starship.
I would ‘nt want Keith to make anybody ill—sets interstellar relations off on a bad footing
other planets are bound to have other life forms
but distances are so vast they are beyond our concern
they will have reached our level of dexteriry and insanity—and blown their resources too
Although it would be very nice to see humanity get to the planets while there is still the will to do it, we are very far away from reaching this goal. Keeping liquid fuels from gassing off will require technologies which simply do not exist.
Pressurized liquids will get warm quickly. In order to prevent heating, state change through gassing off a liquid, must be used to keep the remaining pressurized fuels as liquid. In the vacuum of space, there is no way to dissipate heat other than state change, throwing off expensive material, or infrared. Infrared radiation is inefficient.
Insulation is important, and aerogel and similar substances might benefit a solution, but the expense of it will be astronomical. Delicate substances will fail in the violence of >205 db lift off, and in the vacuum of space.
Because of vacuum and radiation concerns for propellant stored in deep space, propellant is gradually lost as it waits. In the vacuum of space anything operating without an atmosphere will cold weld. Problems are numerous. For example, rubber gaskets quickly breakdown. Machines with interlocking parts are needed to open and close valves. Compressors and cooling systems have many moving parts. Liquid lubricants will out gas quickly, and ball bearings will soon become warm. Non metal materials are as much of a challenge to work with as are metal materials.
This is why we are looking at a show stopper. If you listen to the Keynote address to NASA which was provided by the owner of the excellent Smarter Every Day channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoJsPvmFixU&t=1s
… it will be clear that we need to send up an incredible number of fuel tankers, which by the time they get to a useful orbit, each will have only just a small fraction (~1/100th) left. For reasons explained within the video, fuel tanks must be distributed between the earth and moon (or Mars). Each second stage tanker will need to use most of its fuel to get to a higher parking orbit or precisely between the Earth and Moon. It becomes a complex supply line where fuel from several second stages will need to be transferred to just one stage in order to provide the propulsion to lift a tank of fuel to somewhere outsides Earth’s gravity well.
The problem with parking is that, you need to be going the same speed as the primary spacecraft in order to catch and transfer fuel, using compressors. It either means more fuel to align speeds, of have an incredible and perfect ballet of impossibly complex systems all coalescing precisely as needed. Just a single badly timed solar flare would be like a bowling ball meeting pins.
The problem with bulky liquid fuel is that you can’t do this months in advance because of the out gassing and gassing off requirements. Essentially, all rockets required for the mission would need to be launched within hours or days of each other. Where are all the launch pads to be able to do this? This fuel issue spoils all dreams of returning to the moon, let alone getting anything human bearing to Mars. The fuel would be long gone through out gassing.
There is no way, using any current technology, to maintain liquid atmosphere vessels, at a cool temperature in space and ferried to where it all needs to be. Hypergolic fuels might be necessary, but they are just as heavy, corrosive, toxic, and generally concerning. To date, even though this is currently the only means to get modern human supporting rockets to the moon, there have been no fuel transfers yet achieved in space. Cold welding, and other extreme vacuum effects nearly all materials.
We might as well be in the stone age attempting to imagine a telephone network. We just cannot get any of us from here to Mars…. yet… at least not in any realistic way.
” Keeping liquid fuels from gassing off will require technologies which simply do not exist. ”
There are lots of problem with going to Mars, but this is not one of them. We can build solar powered cryo coolers to keep the cryogenic liquids cold.
I don’t think we should even try to put people on the moon or Mars with the current technology. If we want to do something useful send robots to the moon and AI rovers to Mars.
But almost all of your objections have well known solutions.
Tell you what. Lets make this correct.
Could you provide me something that NASA or anyone else has not been able to:
Can you provide evidence of anything you have mentioned operating for even a moment in a vacuum of Torr -6 or lower?
I would be happy with just one item of evidence… from anyone.
The reason this is important is, without general understanding what we are up against, there is no chance of success. Beautiful ideas such as manned space missions more than 600km from the surface… simply become a grift.
Anything? I very much want to be wrong on this, but there is no evidence of successful anything in deep space.
If you can provide a means for determining a successful technology in this environment…. I should be able to find the rest.
“no evidence of successful anything in deep space. ”
*The mission also revived NICMOS by installing a closed-cycle cooler[114] *
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope#Servicing_Mission_3A
Cryo cooler are not new technology. Cell towers have small LN2 coolers used to keep superconducting cavities cold. I have seen one in operation making LN2. The other well known technology would be to wrap the tanks in the same kind of radiation shields used in dewars.
Copilot isn’t very good at finding this.
It’s almost a good example. Almost.
At 600 km, there is still a slight atmosphere. A couple magnitudes of order in Torr apparently make all the difference. At Torr -6 to Torr -12, nothing is like anywhere else we have visited. The moon even has a slight atmopshere
But, this illustrates the point. We have done almost nothing in deeper space. Nothing has been built, nothing has been tested. It had been presumed there was no problems with deep space engines, compressors and material.
There at nothing but problems a couple thousand kilometres up.
(( We will call it a draw ))
“(( We will call it a draw ))”
Sure. But if you have any insights into the subject I am interested. I have worked (a long time ago) with 10-6 Torr vacuum, still have a piece of sheet metal made by vapor deposition, Over about ten years I worked on power satellite designs for use out in GEO. If you have reason to think pressure below 10-6 Torr will cause problems I would be very interested.
“But, this illustrates the point. We have done almost nothing in deeper space. Nothing has been built, nothing has been tested. It had been presumed there was no problems with deep space engines, compressors and material.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawn_(spacecraft)
Asteroid belt seems like deeper space, and this vehicle lasted over ten years. There was a Mars vehicle that failed during a mid course correction, but as I recall that was a software problem.
“There at nothing but problems a couple thousand kilometres up.”
Well, yes, 2000 km puts you in the edge of the lower Van Allan belt. Unshielded humans get cooked in single digit hours and even radiation hardened semiconductors don’t last a long time. But, as far as I know, pressure has little to do with the problems.
//////We have done almost nothing in deeper space. Nothing has been built, nothing has been tested.//////
because there is no realistic commercial return in doing anything.
You have not been paying attention. The US and Japan have sampled asteroids and returned samples to Earth.
If you take a short term view, right, there is no commercial reason to mine asteroids, but if you take a longer view but still within a human life, https://htyp.org/Mining_Asteroids
i still stand by my comment.—we will not possess the industrial infrasructure, 50 years from now to mine and use earth-stuff, let alone star stuff
though the link wouldnt open.
“the link wouldnt open.”
Strange, it opened for me.
That article is from 13 years ago. There are around a dozen groups that are working on such projects. I don’t think any of them will succeed but maybe the next generation will.
“bringing back powedered iron ”
The only mention of powdered iron is proposing to use it as reaction mass.
Unlike gold and platinum group metals, iron is not worth moving except possibly as Invar (35% nickel) for power satellite structural parts.
“buying and selling them ”forever””
Nothing last forever, not even the sun. But the sun will provide energy for a long, long time.
i finally opened your link and read it with interest.
I got to the bringing back powedered iron part
if you get hold of iron, it has no use unless it is made into something else—which i human terms, is buildings’infrastructure, transport systems and tools.
My contention is, you cannot go on making ”things” forever… and buying and selling them ”forever”—yet you concept of an infinitely properous future seems to suggest that we must do exsctly that
JavaKinetic wrote: ‘But, this illustrates the point. We have done almost nothing in deeper space.’
We have sent probes to every planet in the solar system.
Earth’s exosphere is a menace to orbiting satellites, not an asset. Oxygen ions attack spacecraft components and atmospheric drag complicates station keeping and attitude control.
The main problem that high vacuum causes is evaporation of lubricants from moving parts and monomers from polymers. That is no less a problem in LEO than in interplanetary space. There are various solutions that have been used. The use of low vapour pressure lubricants that evaporate only slowly. The use of labyrinth seals that limit vapour permeability. In some cases, soft metals like lead have been used to reduce friction between moving parts. Magnetic bearings have also been used. In short, this is a design problem, but a manageable one. It isn’t a problem that will stop us from doing anything.
Storing propellants in space for long periods is a non-trivial issue, but it can be done. Practicality depends upon the propellant. For soft cryogens like LOX and CH4, what you describe is possible and these are considered to be space storable. The COP of the refrigeration heat pump depends upon the effective radiator temperature. Outer space has a background temperature of 4K. But radiating at this temperature would require an enormous and massive radiator. So a tradeoff is made that balances power requirement against radiator mass. But LOX and CH4 are relatively dense, which limits heat flux into the tanks, which can be further limited by insulation, which is more effective in vacuum. As LOX remains liquid until about 80K @1bar, the radiator size is considered manageable within an exceptable mass budget.
Storage of hydrogen in space is a lot more problematic. It has <10% of the density of water and only a fifth the density of methane. So tanks are bulky. It's boiling point at 1bar is 20K, or 20°C above absolute zero. The low density tends to increase heat flux and the low saturation temperature of hydrogen aggrevates the problem by increasing thermal gradient. To make matters worse, heat of evaporation of hydrogen is lower than any other propellant. A heat pump capable of keeping it at 20K will also be inefficient, consuming a lot of power. Keeping power requirements acceptable requires lowering radiator temperature. But that dramatically increases the mass of the radiator.
These sorts of problems are why NASA and SpaceX opted to use LOX/Methane propellant for manned Mars missions. Propane would have been an even better propellant. But it is slightly more challenging to make.
The other issue raised by Java concerns operating moving parts in a vacuum. This is also a design problem. But likewise, there are solutions.
“radiator temperature.”
I spent years working on radiator design. Finally got a low pressure, low temperature condensing steam radiator design with a mass of around a kg/kW. The radiator design is shown in the Beamed Energy Bootstrapping video. The reflectors between the tubes date back to work Eric Drexler and I did in 1979.
You are so right about hydrogen, 70 kg per cubit meter.
But do you have a flag?
https://i.imgur.com/e8XyxOJ.gif
The best Trump impersonator is in Canada
https://youtu.be/617L8UW45qg?si=X9fRkGWAJqe7cc3h
“https://www.zerohedge.com/political/i-believe-rule-law-biden-pre-emptively-pardons-fauci-miley-jan-6-committee”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/i-believe-rule-law-biden-pre-emptively-pardons-fauci-miley-jan-6-committee
But think of the corruption that trump brings in tonight! Anyway, ask Norman. Pardoning Fauci is pure justice. Where would we be without the vaccine?
Strange world!
‘Unravelling the Mystery of War’
An interesting article on the Russia-Ukraine war that I’d like to suggest.
I’d like to know what Gail and drb can think about it.
It contains some alternative ways to see how things are really going on.
Maybe not everything is correct, but some considerations might be.
Those considerations are anyway interesting and not simple to be disregarded.
https://www.unz.com/ishamir/unravelling-the-mystery-of-war/
Generally agree with the professor but there is no need to invoke the dollar and euros to explain what happened. They just want fewer competitors for resources. a dilapidated Europe will consume less, that is all. Iran is a hard target, China is a hard target, Europe was a soft target. Specifically I agree with the interpretation of the DSK episode.
Yes, at last an explanation on the DSK episode that seems to make sense,
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report highlights that China’s real estate sector has grown unsustainably over decades, creating a bubble that poses risks to its economy.
The report predicts an inevitable slowdown in China’s real estate market and challenges in transitioning to a balanced economic model, signaling the “end of peak China.”
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/12/chinas-real-estate-challenge-kenneth-rogoff
Probably doesn’t matter in the scheme of things. They actually have a well educated population and are industrialized and innovating. Their auto market dwarfs that of ours (USA), for example, and yet we pretend to have a larger GDP. They are productive enough that when things don’t work out, they can simply eat the loss and keep going.
Articles like this from the West can usually be written off as wishful thinking from spiteful nations in decline.
Joe Vlogs was balanced but a few months after the start of SMO in 2022 he sounds more like a spokesman for the West . Ignored him from quite some time .
I focus on arguments rather than individuals. While the source of a statement holds some significance, it is the arguments themselves that take primary importance. The decline of the West does not necessarily mean that China is on a path to success—especially amidst the current energy crisis. Furthermore, China’s massive real estate sector, with its numerous “ghost cities,” is bound to face devastating consequences, the scale of which is increasingly evident.
It could be argued that these so-called “ghost cities” aren’t actually uninhabited and that everything is going smoothly in China. However, no one can seriously claim that, as the global economic system—an interconnected and non-isolated entity—hurtles toward a potential collapse, people will indefinitely rush to buy Chinese products, cars, and so on. Such optimism disregards the broader economic realities and the inherent instability of sustaining growth under these conditions.
i agree
the fixation that ”buildings” are in themselves a positive investment.
not realising that without people they become a negative investment
For years—and this still continues today—the deaths caused by famine during Stalin’s era were dismissed as Western lies, propaganda, or similar claims. For example, in Turkey, many socialists firmly believe that this is a fabrication and that no one died of starvation in Ukraine. Just recently, I mentioned that there were power outages in Cuba, and the immediate response was, “That’s Western propaganda.” Even if I were to travel to Cuba and personally witness the lack of electricity, they would still insist it’s a Western lie. This is the world we live in—people will believe what they want to believe, to the very end, perhaps even until their death. Is this what’s called confirmation bias? I believe it is.
diehard ofw’ers have fixations about what has or has not happaned.—irrespective of documented information—wtc etc
18th January 2025 Economic alarm bells ring as Hong Kong bankruptcies skyrocket
Hong Kong’s streets tell their own story of economic despair: shuttered shops, empty retail spaces, and “for rent” signs have become ubiquitous features of the urban landscape. Major retail chains, including once-stable businesses like Physical Fitness, have either closed completely or dramatically reduced operations. The restaurant sector’s widespread closures have transformed vibrant dining districts into ghost towns, while the construction industry’s collapse has left workers unpaid and futures uncertain.
https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/economic-alarm-bells-ring-as-hong-kong-bankruptcies-skyrocket/
I will be flying back from Hong Kong in a few days. Perhaps I will see for myself what is happening.
We made one stop in Cambodia. There are a huge number of partially built buildings in Cambodia. These were investments that the Chinese made up until 2019 in Cambodia. High rise buildings were started but not finished. Also related to China’s problems.
The big picture may be that China is going into a great depression. Why would that be the end of China? We had a great depression in the 1930s decade and came out on top of the world. Conventional wisdom is usually biased and wrong.
We had lots and lots of cheap good oil…. We don’t now. What we have now it’s hard to get to and sucks
US refineries still produce daily jet fuel just as good as ever, daily gasoline just as good as ever, and daily diesel just as good as ever.
a barrel is about $80, that is on the cheap side historically, inflation adjusted.
USA 13 mbpd and Canada 6 mbpd.
that still is “lots and lots” baby!
I bet you can still drive anywhere and probably take a plane flight anywhere in the US if you really needed to.
While the U.S. and Canada are still producing substantial amounts of oil, the declining EROI highlights that extracting that oil is becoming increasingly energy-intensive. Just because there is “lots and lots” of production doesn’t mean it’s being achieved efficiently or sustainably.
In the early days of oil exploration, EROI was as high as 1200:1 due to easily accessible resources. However, as those reserves were depleted, more energy-intensive methods, such as deep-water drilling and shale fracking, have been required, reducing EROI to much lower levels. By the mid-2000s, EROI values for production were close to 11:1.
https://www.dadychery.org/2012/01/08/eroi-nears-limit-for-oil-gas-discovery-production/
The EROI argument is about long-term viability, not short-term supply. High production now doesn’t negate the fact that extracting oil requires more energy and resources as reserves become harder to access.
While $80 per barrel may seem “cheap” historically when adjusted for inflation, this doesn’t account for the hidden costs of production. The cost of extracting harder-to-reach oil (deep-water drilling, fracking) is significantly higher than historical “easy oil” extraction.
Furthermore, prices are influenced by market factors, subsidies, and geopolitical events, not just production efficiency. A stable or relatively low price does not mean production is sustainable.
Hidden costs of production, particularly in the context of oil and energy production, refer to indirect costs that are not immediately reflected in the market price of the product but have significant economic, environmental, and societal impacts. These costs are often externalized, meaning they are borne by society or the environment rather than being included in the price paid by consumers or producers.
Governments often subsidize fossil fuel production, diverting public funds away from other priorities like education or healthcare. These subsidies are a hidden cost to taxpayers.
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion
a while ago–i read somewhere that if all the military costs were factored in, petrol would be over$15 a gallon
this is what the maganuts fail to grasp
“As I indicated in my most recent post, if a person computes average wages by dividing total US wages by total US population (not just those employed), the average wage has flattened in recent years as oil prices rose. Median wages (not shown on Figure 2) have actually fallen. This is the same phenomenon observed in the 1970s, when oil prices rose. This is precisely the phenomenon that is expected when there are diminishing returns to human labor, as described above.”-Gail Tverberg
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/12/06/diminishing-returns-energy-return-on-energy-invested-and-collapse/
A single small example:
Chesapeake Energy, a Shale Pioneer, Files for Bankruptcy Protection
The company helped turn the United States into a gas exporter but became known for an illegal scheme to suppress the price of oil and gas leases.
Chesapeake Energy, a pioneer in extracting natural gas from shale rock across the country, filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday, unable to overcome a mountain of debt that became unsustainable after a decade of stubbornly low gas prices.
Chesapeake lost $8.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, and had just $82 million in cash at the end of March. With $9.5 billion in debt at the end of last year, it has bond payments of $192 million due in August.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/business/economy/chesapeake-energy-bankruptcy.html
But from 2010 to 2020, U.S. shale lost $300 billion. Previously, from 2002 to 2012, Chesapeake, the industry leader, didn’t report positive cash flow once, ending that period with total losses of some $30 billion,
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/opinion/environment/energy-crisis-oil-gas-fracking.html
Fueled by debt and years of easy credit, America’s energy boom is on shaky footing.
And yet only five of the top 20 fracking companies managed to generate more cash than they spent in the first quarter of 2018. If companies were forced to live within the cash flow they produce, American oil would not be a factor in the rest of the world, an investor told me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financial-crisis-lurks-underground.html
I don’t know if it’s possible to truly understand. In a totalitarian country like China, uncovering the truth can be incredibly difficult, even if you go there. People may be too afraid to speak.
That’s why knowing the truth might not be easy. This video presents these claims, but someone else could come forward and say they are lies, accusing those behind them of being enemies of China.
“China’s property investment drops 10.6% in 2024, sales slump 12.9%…
“New construction starts measured by floor area declined 23.0% in 2024, the same as the slide in the first eleven months. Funds raised by China’s property developers declined 17.0% last year from a year earlier…”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-investment-drops-106-2024-sales-slump-129-2025-01-17/
I have long maintained that shale oil was a scheme to ” burn useless greenbacks for low EROEI energy source ” . That is why the sector as a whole will wind up underwater . Now there is the issue of ” Plug and abandon ” costs for 100000 plus oil wells . No money . Profit is private and cost is public . Typical mining strategy . Mike Shellman has more .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/more-on-the-permian-bullet-proof-barrel
“Has China already reached peak oil [demand]?
“This week, China said its oil imports had fallen nearly 2 per cent, or 240,000 barrels a day, to just over 11mn b/d in 2024 compared with the year before… The milestone would shake the global economy. Over the past three decades, China has accounted for half of all growth in the world’s oil demand…”
https://www.ft.com/content/341f0aaa-7173-454c-89fd-103287625d38
“Over the past three decades, China has accounted for half of all growth in the world’s oil demand”
That is pretty amazing.
“China faces the longest deflation streak since the Mao era in the 1960s…
“China has failed to break a deflationary cycle and is now on course for the longest sequence of economy-wide price drops since the 1960s… According to major Wall Street banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, it will continue through this year.”
https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/china-faces-the-longest-deflation-streak-since-the-mao-era-in-the-1960s-8628713
U.S. Sanctions on China’s Oil Firms Are Just the Beginning Under Trump
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Sanctions-On-Chinas-Oil-Firms-Are-Nothing-Compared-To-What-Is-Coming-Under.html
“Donald Trump’s policies as US president, set against China’s manufacturing competitiveness, could trigger a liquidity crisis for many countries squeezed in between… The euro is at greatest risk… A US debt crisis is further down the road…”
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3294591/trumps-plans-could-trigger-liquidity-crises-across-europe-and-asia
I agree.
If the United States is approaching peak energy production — and it may already have reached it — it’s important to recognize that the challenge isn’t solely about peak oil. America’s staggering debt, its increasing dependence on China, and a host of other issues must also be factored into the equation. In a world where critical resources like energy are increasingly scarce, China’s massive trade surpluses inevitably begin to work against the United States at a certain point, particularly as we approach resource limits. This is because China’s growing dominance implies a higher demand for energy and other vital resources. Even if resource availability declines before demand spikes, the mere reduction in supply positions China as an inevitable competitor to the U.S. In response, the U.S. has imposed tariffs to curtail China’s advantage. However, such a significant move carries highly complex and unpredictable consequences.
China corporate profits set for third year of declines.
“Chinese corporate profits are set to show a third consecutive year of declines in 2024, with the trend expected to continue into this year as deflationary pressures weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.”
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-corporate-profits-set-for-third-year-of-declines-20250113-p5l3y1
Without profits, Chinese companies cannot keep investing in their companies.
“China’s bond market is screaming deflation.
“…the size of the move at the long end of the curve suggests that investors are sceptical that the recent policy shifts will lead to a sustained recovery in China’s growth.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b0ec93c0-06ae-4fd5-8f8a-a36fbe1a6314
One concern is that deflation will be exported. The debt bubble holding up with world economy will collapse.
“Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China…
“Investors in China’s $11 trillion government bond market have never been so pessimistic about the world’s second-largest economy, with some now piling into bets on a deflationary spiral mirroring Japan’s in the 1990s.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-low
This doesn’t sound good at all! Chinese families will lose their savings. Businesses will become less profitable.
“Yields on Chinese sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years have tumbled in recent weeks to all-time lows, creating an unprecedented 300-basis-point gap with US peers, despite a slew of economic stimulus measures announced by President Xi Jinping’s government.”
China’s millionaires eye the exit as economic storm clouds gather…
“Economic activity has slowed well below the historical trend… Youth unemployment is elevated, hovering above 17 percent. Household spending, at about 40 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), remains far below the global average, and the property market continues to be in the grip of a prolonged slump…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/chinese-millionaires-eye-the-exit-as-economic-storm-clouds-gather
Peter Zeihan Discussed China’s Weaknesses
China’s significant reliance on imports for critical resources like energy, food, and industrial materials. As the world’s largest importer of these essentials, China’s self-sufficiency is severely limited. This dependency places the nation at a considerable disadvantage in a prolonged conflict,
China’s economic model is heavily export-driven, with the United States being its largest customer. Zeihan highlights the absurdity of China’s implicit expectation that, in a conflict scenario, the United States would continue to serve as a major trading partner. This reliance on a geopolitical rival underscores a critical flaw in China’s economic strategy.
Maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca, represent another major vulnerability for China. These narrow passages are vital for the transportation of energy and goods. Zeihan underscores the United States’ naval dominance, which allows it to control these strategic routes. In a conflict, this control could effectively isolate China from critical imports.
I am not as convinced of the US’s military dominance as Zeihan is, but if there is not enough oil for long distance shipping, China will necessarily have to cut back on imports.
China is heavily reliant on imported resources, particularly energy. Approximately 80% of its imported oil passes through the Strait of Malacca, a narrow and easily blockaded chokepoint. Any disruption here would severely impact China’s ability to sustain its economy and military operations, as alternative routes are costly, longer, and similarly vulnerable to blockades.
China’s access to open seas is limited by the “first island chain”, which includes Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and other U.S.-aligned nations. These nations effectively act as a containment line, restricting China’s naval expansion and limiting its ability to project power into the Pacific. If Taiwan were to fall to China, this containment line would be breached, but as long as it holds, China’s naval movements are significantly restricted.
China’s logistics and supply lines face serious risks in a conflict scenario. If the Strait of Malacca or other critical maritime routes are blockaded, transporting essential goods and military supplies would become extremely challenging. This makes China highly vulnerable to U.S. naval power, which dominates these chokepoints.
Its strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to cover only 40-50 days of consumption in wartime, which would quickly deplete.
You can also watch this video for more on the topic, starting from the 59:10 mark.
Actually, this seems to be about Taiwan, but doesn’t it also highlight China’s general weaknesses
China’s rapidly declining birth rate and aging population pose significant threats to its economic and social stability. With fewer young people to sustain consumption and production, the country faces a demographic collapse.
China’s over-reliance on export markets to sustain its economy makes it vulnerable to external shocks. While this model has driven growth, it exposes the economy to geopolitical risks, such as trade wars and shifting global alliances.
China’s economic model relies heavily on state control, which directs financial resources into specific sectors to maintain employment and industrial output. This overcapitalized system is precarious, as any disruption in capital flow could lead to economic collapse.
At some point, the system stops working!
China’s Slowing Oil Demand Growth Is Likely to Persist and Could Impact Markets
China’s property sector slump and liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck sales are weighing on demand for diesel, the largest component of China’s oil product consumption.
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-demand-growth-is-likely-to-persist-and-could-impact-markets/
This is indeed a concern.
China moves to stall Apple, BYD manufacturing shifts
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/117343173.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
“Currently, the equipment and manpower are not allowed to go over [to India],” one of the sources told Rest of World. “And India doesn’t have the technology to produce the equipment.”
Apple and Foxconn did not respond to requests for comment. Chinese and Indian government authorities also did not respond to requests for comment.
If sustained, the suspensions are likely to hinder the broader ambition of Apple to develop next-generation iPhones in India with Foxconn, its long-term Taiwanese manufacturing partner. It also highlights the difficulties Apple faces as it tries to diversify production away from China amid rising U.S.-China tensions.
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-foxconn-factoriesfoxconn-stops-sending-chinese-workers-to-india-iphone-factories/
We’re not just talking about the impending US ban on TikTok, but news emerged this week of ways the Chinese government is reportedly trying to curtail India’s development as a manufacturing hub. In recent years, firms like Apple have diversified their reliance on China to build their hardware with India and Vietnam among those benefitting. India, it would seem, is the one that concerns Beijing the most.
https://www.asiatechreview.com/p/china-obstructs-indias-manufacturing
It is interesting regarding how, “not enough to go around” plays out. China and India have both been in manufacturing, but China has done the more “hi tech” manufacturing. Vietnam is now looking at high tech manufacturing, as well. China has higher wages than either Vietnam or India, hampering its growth. But none of these countries has unlimited energy supply.
Michael Beckley on The End of China’s Rise & the Future of Global Order | WORLD KNOWLEDGE FORUM 2024
1.The notion that China’s economic rise has not only slowed but is reversing marks a pivotal point in global history. This shift signals the end of a period defined by globalization and relative international stability, transitioning into an era of intensified rivalry among global powers.
2. China’s growth challenges stem from deeper structural issues such as declining productivity, inefficiency in capital allocation, and mounting debt. These problems suggest that China’s economic downturn is unlikely to reverse in the near future.
3. The demographic dividend that propelled China’s growth is now becoming a liability. With a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce, the economic pressures on China will intensify, further exacerbating its slowdown.
4. Resource depletion and environmental degradation are placing significant constraints on China’s economic expansion. Scarce water, polluted farmland, and dependency on imported energy and food are driving up production costs and threatening domestic stabilit
5. China’s Approach to Crisis Management is Authoritarian
The centralization of power under Xi Jinping has prioritized political control over economic efficiency. Policies like zero-COVID lockdowns, suppression of dissent, and rigid state interventions have stifled innovation and reduced the agility of China’s economy in responding to crises.
6. Geopolitical Headwinds are Escalating
China benefited from a historically secure geopolitical environment during its rise. However, increasing tensions with neighboring countries, coupled with growing encirclement by U.S. military alliances, are creating a more hostile international environment that hampers its ability to project power.
One issue with Michael Beckley’s commentary is that it overlooks the interconnected nature of the global economy. The problem is not just China’s potential collapse, but the ripple effects that such a downturn could have on the global economic system.
I believe the claims made here merit a closer and more detailed examination:
1. Debt-Fueled Growth Model: China’s economy relies heavily on debt, with excessive investments in infrastructure and real estate leading to a precarious $50 trillion debt bubble.
2. Energy Dependency: China, the world’s largest energy consumer, imports 70% of its crude oil, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions and global price fluctuations.
3. Uncertain Data Transparency: China has increasingly restricted access to economic data, raising concerns about the true state of its economy.
4. Real Estate Bubble: The real estate sector, accounting for 29% of GDP, is plagued with oversupply, including enough vacant homes to house 3 billion people, amplifying risks of economic collapse.
5. Export Overcapacity: Excessive production in industries like steel, EVs, and solar panels has led to a reliance on exports, risking international trade tensions and protectionist tariffs.
6. Shadow Banking Risks: Trust loans and unregulated wealth management products have circumvented banking regulations, amplifying systemic risks in the financial sector.
7. Transitioning Challenges: The capital that fueled growth, affordable energy, and booming real estate markets are now waning, posing severe challenges for China’s economy.
8. Potential Banking Crisis: China’s state-owned banks, the largest globally, are heavily exposed to the real estate sector, risking insolvency in the event of widespread defaults.
9. Global Ripple Effects: Countries like Australia, Brazil, and Germany, heavily reliant on Chinese trade and investments, would face significant economic impacts from a Chinese downturn.
10. Economic Stagnation Risk: Without a transition to a consumption-led economy, China’s growth model appears unsustainable, signaling a potential end to its four-decade “economic miracle.”
11. Deflation and Middle-Class Impact: A real estate collapse could wipe out the wealth of China’s middle class, with severe consequences for domestic consumption and overall economic stability.
China’s Debt Bubble and Demographic Stagnation Pose Major Risks to Global Oil Prices—and U.S. Shale Prospects
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/chinas-debt-bubble-and-demographic-stagnation-pose-major-risks-to-global-oil-pricesand-us-shale-pros
This article seems to include quite a few good observations–regarding how the US shale bubble was able to grow, and regarding to how China has been able to lead the growth in oil demand going forward. This lead is now disappearing quickly. The author sees production moving outside of China, with its higher wage costs and required higher oil transport costs to other areas.
At the beginning, the gives the quote:
““The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” —Rudi Dornbusch”
Perhaps this is true.
The author talks about another possible oil price spike. I am not sure about this.
China’s Local Debt Nears $15 Trillion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgjsCpF7T6I
The Wall Street Journal reported that off-the-books debt ranges from $7 trillion to $11 trillion, while Bloomberg places the LGFV-related debt around $9 trillion. These estimates align with the text’s claim of significant local debt nearing $15 trillion when converted to USD.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-colossal-hidden-debt-problem-is-coming-to-a-head-83a34dc0
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-20/china-s-9-trillion-lgfv-debt-video
Everywhere in China (except on the balance sheet of China itself) there seems to be huge amounts of debt, much of it hidden. Some of this debt is guaranteeing other debt, so if one debt fails, other debts on top may fail. The overall amount is huge.
The future of developer China Vanke and its $45 billion in debt were in focus on Friday after media reports alleged its CEO had been temporarily detained, deepening concerns about China’s embattled property sector.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-vankes-hong-kong-shares-set-fall-84-after-ceo-reportedly-detained-2025-01-17/
The property sector in China is a real worry. It has been used as a storage place for people’s savings. But the true value of people’s savings falls over time. And there isn’t a growing population who wants to buy and can afford these condominiums. Also, unoccupied homes degrade over time.
High interest rates have caused a decline in the Turkish economy.
Turkey falls into recession as interest rates remain sky-high.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/29/turkey-falls-into-recession-as-interest-rates-remain-sky-high
Turkey’s reliance on foreign direct investment (FDI) and short-term capital inflows to fund its current account deficit makes it highly vulnerable during a recession. A downturn triggers capital flight, weakening the lira, fueling imported inflation, and suppressing domestic demand. This cycle deepens the recession, destabilizes the financial sector, and risks escalating unemployment and debt crises. The domino effect undermines investor confidence further, exacerbating economic instability and threatening Turkey’s economy.
Joe Blogs’ comments are also influential on this matter.
Reliance on short term direct investment tends not to work well, especially when the world economy is not growing well. If the overall world economy is growing, thanks to a growing supply of inexpensive fossil fuels, then foreign direct investment tends to work. But not when the system is starting to fail, already.
As Trump releases his own cryptocurrency, it is clear that now the politicians are true cannibals
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/20/donald-trump-meme-coin-price-melania-token
Or he just wants to show that cryptocurrency is a scam.
Who can take such persons seriously?
There are millions of people who are so poor that they can not buy any cryptocurrency, as they live from day to day. They have no wealth to preserve, as they just need to survive. And there is no collective guarantee for any cryptocurrency, besides those who own it. Those that do not own it, they create their own cryptocurrency.
Nonsense.
I think cryptocurrency is going to zero. Not sure when, but in the not-distant-future.
while Mr and Mrs POTUS start a new one each
serious lol time there—except for those who have bought some
unless hes dragged out of the WH by men in white coats—we have to take him seriously for the next 4 years.
he is a proven scam artist, a string of scams on record, yet here he is with his own bitcoin, having been sold the idea by musk—and the hysteria forces belief in it all
the prime weapon of the scammer being that no one want to belive theyve been duped
“the prime weapon of the scammer being that no one want to belive theyve been duped”
Indeed Norman.
Don’t look now but his wife just listed a bitcoin to😂. Its like McDonald’s!
“Contemporary AI could never, by itself, decide that it finds irresistible a particular sculpture by Michelangelo, or that it abhors the taste of bitter tea, or that it is aroused by signals of fertility. AI can dispatch 10,000 hours of intense practice in 10,000 nanoseconds, but it does not favor any zeros and ones over others. As a result, AI can accomplish impressive feats, but not the feat of being anything like a human.
Current AI algorithms don’t care about relevance: they memorize whatever we ask them to. This is a useful feature of AI, but it is also the reason AI is not particularly humanlike. AI simply doesn’t care which problems are interesting or germane; instead, it memorizes whatever we feed it. Whether distinguishing a horse from a zebra in a billion photographs, or tracking flight data from every airport on the planet, it has no sense of importance except in a statistical sense.”?
https://energyskeptic.com/2024/book-review-of-livewired-the-inside-story-of-the-ever-changing-brain/?fbclid=IwY2xjawH7DKNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHVrLyIV8oSaEdi6gT_Dx9JfevkP-gZRP8ApVy6tU5YLkVK8E-fD-Xhft-g_aem_tpDacblyg03jEI921sriXQ
“My main concern is that the substantial cost to develop and run AI technology means that AI applications must solve extremely complex and important problems for enterprises to earn an appropriate return on investment (ROI). We estimate that the AI infrastructure buildout will cost over $1tn in the next several years alone, which includes spending on data centers, utilities, and applications. So, the crucial question is: What $1tn problem will AI solve? Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I’ve witnessed. . . .
The bigger question seems to be whether power supply can keep up. GS US and European utilities analysts Carly Davenport and Alberto Gandolfi, respectively, expect the proliferation of AI technology, and the data centers necessary to feed it, to drive an increase in power demand the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a generation, which GS commodities strategist Hongcen Wei finds early evidence of in Virginia, a hotbed for US data center growth. “?
https://indi.ca/content/files/2024/07/Goldman-Sachs-AI-Report.pdf
>> Contemporary AI could never, by itself, decide that it finds irresistible a particular sculpture by Michelangelo, or that it abhors the taste of bitter tea
First they said it would never work, now they complain that it doesn’t have the same emotional response to a piece of art. If that’s all that makes humans special, we sure don’t amount to much.
We need a lot of higher-paying jobs. It is hard to believe that AI can provide these. AI can make the task of translation among languages easier/better. It can perhaps replace some low level jobs. But finding more inexpensive to produce coal, oil and gas, I find doubtfu.
An extended family member of mine worked as a translator. AI put him out of business.
The person I know handles the translation of documents that need to have just the right nuances of tone. This is trickier than AI is set up to handle. But it can give a reasonable first approximation.
AOC warns: “We are in the eve of an authoritarian administration. This is what 21st century fascism looks like.”
https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1881074493596323961
Who cares what that waitress thinks? She has a history of scaremongering.
we broadly agree on ofw that economic collapse is inevitable—we just dont know when
that will bring about civil unrest and worse.
when that happens the authoritarian regime kicks in to maintain civil cohesion.
(history os full of examples)
the new potus is morally bankrupt, and has been declared immune from legal responsibility—he has hired people (particularly generals) who will do as he orders.
he is also commander in chief of the army.
When society breaks down, soldiers will follow whoever pays their wages—from the generals downwards.
How much more clearly do you want it spelled out?
Ten years ago, I forecast collapse by mid 2020s—-and January 2025—right on cue, a bonkers POTUS takes over,
I fear for your sanity, Norman. I really do.
In four more years you are going to have to find somebody else to be deranged about.
I only hope America can produce a candidate worthy of your obsessive attention.
Hint, this POTUS lark is a soap opera, much like Dallas and Dynasty and Coronation Street and East Enders. It’s all part of the illusion of freedom. Please don’t over-excite yourself by mistaking it for real life.
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-the-illusion-of-freedom-will-continue-as-long-as-it-s-profitable-to-continue-the-illusion-frank-zappa-34-71-29.jpg
if it was only me saying it tim—i would take due note of your solicitations
woah, the new POTUS is morally bankrupt. I miss the days of Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden. And think about what could it have been if Hillary had been elected. No, really, this changes everything. This POTUS, this particular one, is morally bankrupt.
“Ten years ago, I forecast collapse by mid 2020s—-and January 2025—right on cue, a bonkers POTUS takes over,”
uh, your UK guy looks bonkers, but you can’t write that for fear of prison, so wink wink Normie, we understand.
and do you never write about the imminent UK collapse? if anything, that’s the one that might be 2025.
but you look dead wrong about mid 2020s, that’s okay, we all get things wrong.
first off—the UK economic system is tied to the American one.
when that slides into real physical chaos—so do we—for a variety of reasons.—hence i write very little about uk politics, for that very reason.
i can write virtually anything about our political system or politicians, no one will take the slightest notice.
where you got the ”prison” idea i can’t imagine—-shows your own lack of political/social awareness and knowledge though.—we have no political prisoners here.
daft.
i just listened to some of the grating whine of your new master—god help you all, if there is one.—one lie after another—rinse and repeat, utter conman, his whining voice alone says what he is—how does anyone have the sheer gall to start selling his own bitcoin ponzi scheme. the day before he becomes POTUS??
and gullible fools are falling for it…..again.
if you want to know what a statesman sounds like —go back and listen to some obama speeches
then compare the two.
when the UK economy slides into real physical chaos, there will be very little effect on the country which produces 17 mbpd of black goo crude.
you’re wrong about mid 2020s, no big deal, even the feeble UK economy should limp along into the 2030s.
even your loonatic borderline fascsist PM won’t be able to bring it down any faster.
but you be you, oh look over there, THAT country across the pond has a bonkers leader again.
after the grace and eloquence of Obama
we have Mr and Mrs POTUS launching their own bitcoin
excuse me while I….. ROTHFLMAO
and even more—that you think this is acceptable behaviour in a world leader
to mangle one of the greatest quotations:
the mid 2020s have come
aye Ceasar, but they have not gone
I cry with you Norm. had he not stolen the election from Hillary the world would be completely different.
She caused less harm to Western Civilization than the “National Heroes” you are talking about, who killed Europeans and eventually helped to make the Hindus great again.
Biden and Harris have been saying something similar. It doesn’t make it correct.
Canadian doctors and healthcare centers are apparently offering MAID (medical assistance in dying) to all sorts of people who cost the system money.
A sampling of comments below the video:
* I’m a 3x Afghanistan Canadian Vet and me and friends where suggested MAiD also instead of offering us our medical pension in 2021
* My sister is a social worker. One of her clients contacted her doctor about getting care after a suicide attempt. Her doctor offered her MAID unprompted. My sister subsequently had to convince her client that it didn’t mean her life was hopeless. This is really happening all across Canada. It’s absolutely sickening.
* I’m a healthy 69 yr.old woman who is terrified of going to the hospital for any reason. When a friend’s mother was in the hospital, they kept advising her to use MAID and she kept refusing. Doctors are given a financial “reward” for using it.
It certainly would save the system a lot of time and expense if people would conveniently decide to die, rather than using a huge amount of medical care, or long term care in a medical type facility.
Cryonics would be relatively less expensive.
or build the equivalent of the terracotta army—but with real people
Tragic, Ivan, but also somewhat funny. These people in the medical sector have gone from malpractice to straight culling without missing a beat.
If someone could help me understand the logic of rebuilding homes destroyed by wildfires? What if there were another wildfire in 2026 or 2027?
rebuilding will happen as long as there is sufficient surplus energy.
USA refines 17 mbpd of black goo crude, so for now there is a lot of surplus energy to do stuff.
people often do stuff that makes no sense, like rebuilding in flood plains and in semi deserts like much of the American West.
if the homes are not rebuilt, people will probably waste the energy on other stuff.
it’s what we do naturally.
Yes I get that the u.s refines a lot but how much of it is really useful for the things that power the economy? As I understand it a lot of the U.S oil is crap ….great for making plastic bags and plastics but not so great for getting food from point a to point b. This is why a lot of it gets exported and we must import a fair amount.
USA refinery output is 18 mbpd of jet fuel + gasoline + diesel mostly.
about an additional 5 mbpd MORE is NGL natural gas liquids which have less value but some value to make plastics etc.
US outputs about 5 mbpd of diesel but only needs about 3.5 mbpd for internal use so US exports 1.5 mbpd of diesel, too much diesel jaja!
US fracked oil is LTO light tight oil, but Canadian is heavy, and Canada produces 6 mbpd but can only refine 2 mbpd so must export 4 mbpd, a win/win for Canada and US.
so adding the lesser NGL, the US handles about 23 mbpd of liquid hydrocarbons, amazing!
this can’t last, it’s all downhill for the next few decades.
the 2050s are going to be brutal.
everytime i hear a human whine about wanting a good job, easy retirement, home and kids i feel dead inside about their predicament of scraping for food in the future because of their excessive greed and collective stupidity
I see what you did David! Good to have you back David….touche!
I was talking about actual oil and you quickly went to refined goods; circumventing the real problem of not enough to go around. Look at Gails charts there is almost a one to one correlation to oil consumption and GDP. The U.S has staved off a lot of problems by fracking like crazy but I believe and I think this must cross your mind as well as the good spots are gone now is left is the difficult ones and the big players are leaving the area. They have to make money.
I want to believe! Sulley on the X files
yes Sam I Am, actual oil from USA + Canada is an unprecedented 19 mbpd, and this number does not include NGLs.
and yes this amount will be declining relentlessly for the next few decades.
it’s nothing to worry about.
oh wait! I’m mid 60s aged and you are younger.
you should be okay into the late 2030s or so, unlike those sad people in the UK who will be in deep dooodooo by 2030 or so.
There apparently is enough surplus “something”…albeit energy, cash, debt whatever that the system, up till now, keeps rebuilding when it shouldn’t. A guy down the road from me had a big tall tree blow over and damage his house extensively. It is now repaired and very nice looking (I assume due to home insurance) but here is the kicker…he still has about eight tall tress around his house so the debacle could happen again up to 8 times. I presume his house is still insured.
This is in Alabama but I saw the same stupidity in Tx, where rivers would flood, and houses on the river floated down the river. Nevertheless, they rebuilt them right where they were.
I saw one guy who had had his house destroyed 3 times, and every time insurance rebuilt it for him.
I guess that the latest noise we are hearing in FL and CA about insurers backing out of policies is the canary in the coalmine. The surpluses are waning.
I have heard about insurance companies demanding that overhanging trees be cut down, before the companies will insure the homes.
In wooded areas, trees are like weeds. The keep self-seeding. If you don’t keep pulling them up, or chopping them down, you get more and more trees.
SOCAL = (Standard Oil of California)
*No one burns down the elders’ neighborhood without rebuilding. (even if it’s a waste)
Here is an interesting overview of our energy predicament, along with some graphs, including a graphic one that illustrates how far down the EROI fossil energy slope/cliff we are and how long we’ve got until we hit bottom.
Keeping up the Strength of Those Horses: The Hunter-Gatherer’s Meta-Solution to This Recurring Problem
Our hunter-gatherer ancestors lived on the 10:1 EROI/EROEI sweet spot between slight want and moderate abundance on the energy cliff. See the graph below, first shown and explained on this Substack here. If their local environment became depleted of foodstuffs and the energy return on hunting and gathering became uncomfortably low (threatening to take the hunter-gatherer band down into the dangerously hungry bottom of the energy cliff), the hunter-gatherer answer to the problem was always to move camp to a less resource-depleted terrain – and thus retreat a safe distance from the steeper, riskier slopes of the energy cliff.
Later, rather than follow their food like their hunter-gatherer forebears, farmers learned how to stay in place but had to be satisfied with a more precarious, chancier perch farther down along the side of the energy cliff. However, with episodes of associated global cooling and aridification, fuel wood exhaustion, soils depletion, salinization, or an unfavorable shift in political environment, even farmers sometimes had no choice but to pull stakes and change neighborhoods. Note, for example, that many of the 19th century Swedish farmers moved to North America when their previously stable but still risky position on the energy cliff (see above) began dropping out from under them because of forest depletion…
https://grundvilk.substack.com/p/break-down
good article, but the timing is hard to calculate.
the top graph has no time scale, it’s not predictive.
by 2040, the present Energy Cost of Energy which is now a bit above 10% will possibly be about 20%, good chance based on Morgan’s calculations.
that means today’s gross energy has about 90% surplus energy to run IC which is great.
about 2040, the gross energy will have about 80% surplus energy, the decline in surplus energy is not too steep yet.
of course, gross daily volumes of energy will be falling generally from now until 2040, so that decline will combine with the ECoE rise and cause the irreversible degrowth which has probably just begun about now.
the 2040s are going to be brutal, leading to most people being impoverished in the 2050s and beyond.
it’s nothing to worry about.
Nice to hear from you; the gloom slides back a notch!
if I wasn’t distracted by some fun things lately, I would be posting more about the looming 2040s, but alas.
thanks for that info tim—follows on much the same line of thinking as me.
You will no doubt be consumed with excitement and anticipation to know that I’m putting together a substack on much the same theme rght now, seems like a good outlet for deranged ranters like me—will give it a go anyway
(watch this space)
This is very good news, Norman. If you open a Substack, I will definitely become a free subscriber, and will try not to offend you too much as you will have the dictatorial power to ban dissenters.
I would open a Substack myself, only I don’t have very much spontaneous to say. Just being a reactionary—as in reacting to other people’s opinions and comments—takes up all my energy.
I have subscribed to about 100 Substacks, and a lot of them post several times a week, so I get about 30 emails a day from various accounts. What I’ve done is to set the email to put all messages from substack into a SUBSTACK folder, which I then access like a feed or a newspaper. The drawback with this method is that I am usually a week or two behind in reading anything, because who has the time to read 30 Substacks a day?
Anyway, I was very impressed by that graph showing our decent down the energy cliff. A very memorable and sobering graphic, isn’t it? I’m glad you liked the article.
thanks tim
do dissent—as long as you dont comment in sevens eights and nines i wont ban you—i need contradiction
that energy cliff has been done in several forms, with a common meaning, its very good—i’ve done the same thing but in pictures—to try to be a bit different,
i shall probably substack it.
my new book is in process—i will post the amazon link when it appears shortly—dont know when exactly.—a first edition will be worth 000s by the time keith gets defrosted.
That’s great news,Norm, Ill gift one to your admirer Fast Eddy, or would you prefer to send him a hard copy, signed and a note?
“Why China is racing ahead in AI, and in everything else: their whole economy is open source”
“Why China is racing ahead in AI, and in everything else: their whole economy is open source”
That’s quite a change from a few years ago when the CCP banned AI because they could not get the AIs to toe the party line.
Perhaps all of this—constant oversight and unchecked industrial growth—will only accelerate China’s consumption of energy and resources, hastening an inevitable collapse.
China may attempt to address all these challenges with AI, but relying too heavily on artificial intelligence could introduce new complexities and create as many problems as it solves—especially when it comes to finding cheap energy, creating new energy sources, and addressing environmental and other resource challenges, since implementing such solutions may not be as easy as it seems and could even become impossible beyond a certain point, which I believe is inevitable.
Technology, of course, cannot create new energy on its own, but it can provide a pathway to access energy sources. However, I pointed out that even this pathway is not easy and could become impossible beyond a certain point—which we may have already reached in the current situation.
industrial growth is the only thing that keeps people employed and fed en masse—for that reason alone, leaders have to maintain it—or lose thier jobs, or their heads, or both.
it is of course unsustainable in the long term.
but it goes on in the hope that it will— for the lifetime of those involved.
i too hope it will see out my remaining years—so i perpetuate the myth by acting as if it will—while knowing that it might not—and certainly wont see out my g’kids—unless of course by some miracle keiths calculations are correct, and we will have infinite energy forever.
Perhaps that’s why, out of desperation, they seem to have pinned their hopes on AI. I haven’t seen many miracles in my life. Most of the time, I see Murphy’s Law at play, especially in the long term. But of course, to some extent, people live with hope. However, it seems to me that they are very close to starting to lose that hope. Perhaps, for some, this has already begun.
‘AI’ gives the impression that at least some progress is being made on something, even if the physical environment and living standards in the West are visibly deteriorating.
There’s no power for any of these supposed new data centres so it’s all just talk.
You have described some of my concerns.
Mine, too — AI would be an (impossibly?) huge consumer of energy.
“huge consumer ”
Training still takes a lot of power, but some of them can run on a laptop.
Is the international energy association accurate in their estimates? Do we really have 60 years left of oil at current consumption?
“Do we really have 60 years left of oil at current consumption?”
It does not matter. Over the next 20 years technology including energy technology is likely change to the point oil will not be significant.
Humans might not be significant either. I just don’t know.
cheap surplus energy allows us to have technology
technology does not, and never will supply cheap surplus energy.
It’s the law keith, no matter what your calculator tells you
“cheap surplus energy.”
Intermittent solar PV is available for 1.35 cents per kWh. A bbl of oil is rated at 1.700 kWh. Using anyone’s calculator, the energy cost would be $23/bbl.
How cheap is cheap enough for you?
“The true cost of wind and solar energy in New England is not competitive with that of natural gas. This is especially true for offshore wind, which is twelve times more expensive than combined cycle (CC) natural gas in the region. . . .
As a result of not accounting for the hidden costs of intermittent energy, even the unsubsidized LCOE values estimated by Lazard are extremely low, ranging from $27 to $73 per MWh for onshore wind, $74 to $139 per MWh for offshore wind, and $29 to $92 per MWh for solar.
As we have shown, the true system cost of wind and solar in New England is at least three times the high-end values listed above, and up to twelve times more expensive than the low-end values. “ ?
https://energybadboys.substack.com/p/wind-and-solar-up-to-12-times-more
Except we don’t have 20 years.
Russia can probably supply China+Russia for 20 years. Chinese tech innovation continues apace, even if they’re disparaged as only being able to copy.
If they do solar power satellites by coping that is just as good as doing it from scratch.
it comes down to efficiency if they can bring down their costs then alot more hard to extract oil can be produced from the current declining old oil fields and maybe some new ones such as the arctic so the transition in other words all different energy sources doing their bit could provide us with sixty more years at the current consumption rate. The interest rates would also come down and then enter negative interest rates so that means free money to assist the oil companies in finding more oil in those hard to reach areas.
‘On Tuesday, Norway awarded stakes in 53 offshore oil and gas exploration licenses to 20 companies in its latest annual licensing round, with Energy Minister Terje Aasland revealing plans for increased drilling in its offshore Arctic region.
“If we are to uphold a stable production in the years to come, we must explore more and invest more,” Aasland told a conference.”
if you ever feel useless, remember it took 20 years, trillions of dollars and 4 US Presidents to replace the Taliban with the Taliban” (Norman Finkelstein) .
I like Dr Fabio Vighi . Writes sparingly but never disappoints .
https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/wargames-and-fartcoins-brace-yourselves-for-an-explosive-start-to-2025/
we awake and find ways of opposing this ruinous path, or we will be overwhelmed by it.
what is he talking about? the moment a human takes out a loan or buys stuff, they pulled the extraction rate for resources up beyond capacity of existence and multiplied the rate of dissipation. what path are you opposing when you refuse to obey the law of thermodynamics????? you know humans are intrinsically hierarchical and deferential to authority and perpetually fighting over an imaginary elite is not changing anything because humans are irresponsible and they rather have someone else make all this decisions.
his piece sucks.