ãèªç¶ã¨äººçºãã±ã¤ã³ãºã¨æ´ç°ã
ä¹
ãã¶ãã«æå人ã¨ä¼ã£ã¦ã©ã³ãããå¾æã®ãã·ã³ã¬ã³ãã¼ã¯ã¯è¡°ããç¥ããã»ã»ã»ã¨ãããããããã®å¢ãã¯ããã«å¢ãã¦ãããç¸æ§ãæã¤æããããã¾ããã§ãããæå人ãããããªã«æ¥ãã§ã©ãã¸è¡ãï¼
ããã¬ãã©ããã¦çãããï¼ããã¬ã®åå ï¼ã¨ããã¨ãã®çç±ã¯å¤§ã¾ãã«2ã¿ã¤ãã«åãããããããç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ããããã¯ï¼çç£æ§ã®ä¸æãã¯ããã¨ããï¼æ£ã®ç·ä¾çµ¦ã·ã§ãã¯ãã®ã©ã¡ããã ããï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼AD-ASã¢ãã«ã§è¨ãã¨ãç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ã¯ADæ²ç·ã®å·¦ã·ããã«ãæ£ã®ç·ä¾çµ¦ã·ã§ãã¯ã¯ASæ²ç·ã®å³ã·ããã«ãããããããï¼ã
ç£åºéï¼å®è³ªGDPï¼ã«åã¼ãå½±é¿ã¨ããç¹ã§ã¯ä¸¡è ã®éã§å¤§ããªéããããããã©ï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼ç·éè¦ãä¸è¶³ããå ´åã¯ç£åºéã¯æ¸å°ãï¼ãããã¯å®è³ªçµæ¸æé·çã¯ä½ä¸ãï¼ãæ£ã®ç·ä¾çµ¦ã·ã§ãã¯ãçºçããå ´åã¯ç£åºéã¯å¢å ããï¼ãããã¯å®è³ªçµæ¸æé·çã¯ä¸æããï¼ï¼ãã©ã¡ããããã¬ï¼ãããã¯ã¤ã³ãã¬çã®ä½ä¸ï¼ã¨ããçµæããããããã¨ã«ãªãããã
ãã¦ãã²ã¨ã¾ãç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ï¼ã«ããããã¬ã®çºçï¼ã®è©±é¡ã¯ä¸æ¦èã«ç½®ãã¦ããã¦ãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ãã£ã¦ããã¬ãçºçããã¨ãããããã¨ããããçç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ãã£ã¦ããã¬ãçºçããã®ã¯èªç¶ãªï¼å¿ ç¶çãªï¼æãè¡ããªãã ãããï¼ãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãç©ä¾¡ã«ã©ãããå½±é¿ãåã¼ããã¯ãéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ã次第ã ã¨å人çã«æããã ããã
ä¾ãã°ãä¸å¤®éè¡ããã¤ã³ãã¬ç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ãã¦ãã©ã¹ã®ã¤ã³ãã¬çã®éæãç®æ¨ã«æ²ãã¦ããã¨ããããããã®æãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãã·ã§ãã¯ã®ããã«ããã¬å§åãçãã¦ãã¤ã³ãã¬çãç®æ¨ã¤ã³ãã¬çãä¸åãããã ã¨ãªã£ãã¨ãããä¸å¤®éè¡ã¯ã©ãè¡åããã ããï¼ãã¤ã³ãã¬çãç®æ¨ã¤ã³ãã¬çãä¸åããã¨ããªãããã«éèç·©åã«æã£ã¦åºãã ããããã¤ã¾ããä¸å¤®éè¡ããã¤ã³ãã¬ç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããå ´åãçç£æ§ãä¸æãã¦ãããã¬ï¼ã¤ã³ãã¬çã®ä½ä¸ï¼ã¯çããªãã¨ããçµæã«ãªãå¯è½æ§ãããããã ããã
ãã¦ãä¸æ¹ã§ä¸å¤®éè¡ããNGDPç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããã¨ããããããã®å ´åããçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãã·ã§ãã¯ãçºçãããä¸å¤®éè¡ã¯ã©ãè¡åããã ããï¼ãå ã®ãã¤ã³ãã¬ç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããå ´åã¨ã¯éã£ã¦éèç·©åã«æã£ã¦åºããã¨ã¯ãªãã ãããããNGDPç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããå ´åãä¸å¤®éè¡ãã¿ã¼ã²ããã¨ããã®ã¯åç®GDPæé·çã ãããåç®GDPæé·çãç®æ¨ã®ç¯å²ã«ããéãã¯ãã®å 訳ï¼ã¤ã³ãã¬çã¨å®è³ªGDPæé·çï¼ãã©ãå¤åãããã¨é¢ä¿ãªãã¯ãã ããããçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãã·ã§ãã¯ã¯ãå®è³ªGDPæé·çã®ä¸æãã¨ãã¤ã³ãã¬çã®ä½ä¸ãã¨ããããã¡ã¨ãªã£ã¦è¡¨ããå¯è½æ§ãé«ããããã¤ã¾ããä¸å¤®éè¡ããNGDPç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããå ´åãçç£æ§ãä¸æããã¨ããã¬ï¼ã¤ã³ãã¬çã®ä½ä¸ï¼ãçããã¨ããçµæã«ãªãå¯è½æ§ãããããã ããï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼ãã®ãããã®è°è«ã¯ããã¯ã¯ã¼ã¹ã«ãã次ã®ã¨ã³ããªã¼ãインフレターゲットの問題点 by David Beckworthãï¼erickqchanãã訳ï¼ãåèã«ãªãã ããï¼ã
ã¨ããããã§ãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãç©ä¾¡ã«ã©ãããå½±é¿ãåã¼ããã¯ãéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ã次第ã ã¨è¨ããããã ãããä¸å¤®éè¡ããã¤ã³ãã¬ç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããã°ï¼çç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ä¼´ã£ã¦ï¼ããã¬ã¯çããªããããNGDPç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããã°ï¼çç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ä¼´ã£ã¦ï¼ããã¬ãçããã¨ããããã§ãã¨ããã§ãä¸å¤®éè¡ãã©ã®ãã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãã®ä¸ã§éèæ¿çãéå¶ãããã¨ã«ãªããã¯äººçºçãªé¢ããããããã©ã®ãã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãã®ä¸ã§éèæ¿çãéå¶ãããã¯éå½ã«ãã£ã¦ï¼ãããã¯ç¥ã®æãå¬ãã«ãã£ã¦ï¼ããããã決ã¾ã£ã¦ããã¨ããããã§ã¯ãªããè¤æ°ããé¸æè¢ã®ä¸ããé¸ã³åºãããçµæãªããã ãããã¨ãªãã¨ãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ãã£ã¦ããã¬ãçºçããã®ã¯èªç¶ãªï¼å¿ ç¶çãªï¼æãè¡ãã ã¨ã¯è¨ããªãããã§ãããç¨åº¦äººçºçãªé¸æã®çµæã ã¨è¨ããããã ããããã£ãã触ããããã«ãä¸å¤®éè¡ããNGDPç®æ¨ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããå ´åã¯çç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ãã£ã¦ããã¬ãçãããã¨ã«ãªãããã©ãããã¯ä¸å¤®éè¡ããNGDPç®æ¨ãã¨ããã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãæ¡ç¨ãã¦ããçµæã§ããããã§ãããããæå³ã§çç£æ§ã®ä¸æã«ãã£ã¦ããã¬ãçºçãããã©ããã¯ä¸å¤®éè¡ãã©ã®ãããªã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãæ¡ç¨ï¼é¸æï¼ãããã¨ãã人çºçãªè¦å ã«æ ã£ã¦ããã¨è¨ããããã ããã
ã©ã³ããçµãããã®ã¾ã¾è¿ãã®å«è¶åºã«å
¥ããåºå
ã«æµããã¸ã£ãºã«èãå
¥ãã»ã»ã»ä½å°ãªã©ä¸ãããæå人ã®ãã·ã³ã¬ã³ãã¼ã¯ã¯ç¶ãã
ã¨ããã§ã¤ãæè¿ãæ´ç°æ¬èã経済の法則を求めてããèªã¿ç´ãããã ããã©ããããªè©±ãæ¸ãã¦ãã£ãããã
ã±ã¤ã³ãºã¯æ¬¡ã®ããã«èãã¦ãããçµæ¸ã®çºå±ã«ã¤ãã¦â éçæ¶è²»æ§åã¯ä½æ¸ãï¼ãã®çµæç·æ¶è²»ã伸ã³æ©ãï¼ãâ¡è³æ¬ã®éçå¹çã¯ä½ä¸ããï¼ãã®çµæç·æè³ã伸ã³æ©ãï¼ã¨ããæ³åãããã1930年代ã®å¤§ææ ã¯â ã¨â¡ã®æ³åã®çµæã¨ãã¦çããå¿ ç¶çãªäºæ ã§ãããã¨ã
ã§ããã±ã¤ã³ãºã®ãã®å¤æã¯äºå®èª¤èªã§ããããå¶ç¶ãå¿ ç¶ã¨è¦èª¤ãããã®ã ã»ã»ã»ã¨æ´ç°æ°ã¯è©ä¾¡ãã¦ããããã
ã1930年代ã«çãã大ææ ã®åå ã¯ç·éè¦ã®ç°å¸¸ãªå縮ã«ãããã¨ããã±ã¤ã³ãºã®å¤æã¯æ£ããããç·éè¦ãå縮ããåå ãâ ã¨â¡ã®æ³åã«æ±ããã®ã¯ééã£ã¦ããã1930年代ã«ç·éè¦ã大ããå縮ããã®ã¯ãããéæ¬ä½å¶åº¦ã®æ¯é ä¸ã«ããã¦ã¯ä¸ççµæ¸ã«ããã¼ã·ã£ãªã¢ã³kãæ¯é ããããã¨ã«æ°ã¥ããªãã£ãå½æã®æå°è ãã¡ãééã£ã貨幣æ¿çãæ¡ç¨ãããã¨ãããå¶ç¶ãã®äºæ ã«èµ·å ããã®ã§ããããã»ã»ã»ã¨ããã®ãæ´ç°æ°ã®è©ä¾¡ã ããã
ç°¡åã«è¨ãã¨ãåå½ãéæ¬ä½å¶ã«å¾©å¸°ããã®ã大ææ ã®åå ã§ããã大ææ ã¯éæ¬ä½å¶ã¨ãããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ããæ¡ç¨ãããããã«çãããå¶ç¶ã®ãçµæã ãã¨ãããã¨ã ããï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼ãã®ç¹ã«ã¤ãã¦è©³ããã¯éãªãå çã®æ¬¡ã®ããã°ã¨ã³ããªã¼ã忘れられたリフレ派、没後20年ãï¼ã忘れられたリフレ派、続きããåç §ï¼ã
ãéæ¬ä½å¶åº¦ã®æ¯é ä¸ã«ããã¦ã¯ä¸ççµæ¸ã«ããã¼ã·ã£ãªã¢ã³kãæ¯é ãããã¨ããã®ã¯ãããããã¨ã ãããããã¼ã·ã£ãªã¢ã³kãï¼ãã¼ã·ã£ã«ã®kï¼ã¨ããã®ã¯è²¨å¹£å¯¾åç®æå¾æ¯ï¼M/Pyï¼ã®ãã¨ã ããã©ï¼ã±ã³ããªãã¸ç¾éæ®é«æ¹ç¨å¼ãMï¼kPyãã®kï¼ãéæ¬ä½å¶ä¸ã«ãã£ãææã®ä¸ççµæ¸å ¨ä½ãè¦ãã¨ãä¸çå ¨ä½ã«åå¨ãã貨幣ç¨ã®éã®ç·é¡ï¼Mï¼ã¨ä¸çå ¨ä½ã®åç®æå¾ï¼Pyï¼ã®æ¯ï¼ä¸çå ¨ä½ã§è¦ããã¼ã·ã£ã«ã®kï¼ãä¸å®ã®å¤ã§å®å®ãã¦ãããã¨ã«æ´ç°æ°ã¯æ°ä»ãããã ããã
第ä¸æ¬¡ä¸ç大æ¦ãåçºããã¨åå½ã¯éæ¬ä½å¶ããé¢è±ãããã¨ã«ãªã£ãããã ããã©ããã®çµæä¸ççµæ¸ã¯ãä¸ççµæ¸ã®ãã¼ã·ã£ãªã¢ã³kãã®æ¯é ããèªç±ã«ãªã£ã¦ï¼è¨ãæããã¨ãéã®éã«æç¸ãããå¿ è¦ããªããªã£ã¦ï¼Pyï¼åç®æå¾ï¼ã大ããä¸æãããã¨ã«ãªã£ããã ããã
ã§ãããã°ããããã¨åå½ã¯éæ¬ä½å¶ã«å¾©å¸°ãå§ãããã¨ã«ãªã£ãããã ããã©ããããªãã¨åã³ãä¸ççµæ¸ã®ãã¼ã·ã£ãªã¢ã³kãããã®åãçºæ®ãå§ãããã¨ã«ãªãããã ããã
Pyãä¸æããåkã¯ä½ä¸ãã¦ããããã ããã©ããã®é貨幣ç¨ã®éã®éã¯ããã»ã©å¢ãã¦ãããããã®ããkãå ã®å¤ã«æ»ãããã«ã¯ï¼ä¸æããããã«ã¯ï¼Pyï¼åç®æå¾ï¼ãä½ä¸ããªãã¨ãããªãããã
kãå ã®å¤ã«æ»ããã¨ãã調æ´éç¨ã§åç®æå¾ã²ãã¦ã¯ç·éè¦ãæ¥æ¿ã«å縮ãããã®çµæã¨ãã¦çããã®ã大ææ ã ã¨ããããã ãããæ´ç°æ°ã¯å®éã«äºãèµ·ãã£ã¦ãããã診æããããã§ã¯ãªãã¦å¤§ææ ãçºçããåã®æç¹ã§ãï¼éæ¬ä½å¶ã¸ã®å¾©å¸°ã«ãã£ã¦ï¼ç·éè¦ã¯å¤§ããè½ã¡è¾¼ããï¼ãã¨äºæ¸¬ãã¦ãããã ããã©ãã
ã¨ããããã§ã1930年代ã«çºçããç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ã¯ã±ã¤ã³ãºãèªãããã«å¿ ç¶çãªãã®ã§ã¯ãªããï¼éæ¬ä½å¶ã¨ããï¼ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãé¸æããçµæã¨ãã¦æããããã®ã§ããããå¶ç¶ãã®çµæã ã¨æ´ç°æ°ã¯è©ä¾¡ãã¦ããããã ããããå¶ç¶ãã¯ã人çºçãã¨è¨ãæãã¦ããããããããªãããã
ãã¦ããã£ãã®ã©ã³ãã®æã«ä¸æ¦èã«ç½®ãã¦ããããç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ã«ããããã¬ãã®è©±é¡ã ããã©ãããã§ããèªç¶ãã¨ã人çºãã¨ããåºå¥ãé¢ãã£ã¦ãããããç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ããå¿ ç¶ãã®æ³åã«æ±ããã±ã¤ã³ãºã¨ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ã®é¸æã¨ãããå¶ç¶ãã«æ±ããæ´ç°æ¬ããéçæ¶è²»æ§åã®ä½æ¸å¾åãã¨ãè³æ¬ã®éçå¹çã®ä½ä¸å¾åãã®ãèªç¶ãªãï¼å¿ ç¶çãªï¼çµæã¨ãã¦å¤§ææ ãæãããã®ã ã¨èª¬ãã±ã¤ã³ãºã¨éæ¬ä½å¶ã¨ããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãé¸ãã§ãã¾ã£ããããã«ï¼ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ã®ã人çºçãªãé¸æã®çµæã¨ãã¦ï¼å¤§ææ ãæãããã®ã ã¨èª¬ãæ´ç°æ¬ã¨ããããã ããããéå»20å¹´è¿ãã®æ¥æ¬ã§ç·éè¦ãä¸è¶³ãã¦ããã®ã¯è²·ããããã®ãç¡ãããã ãã¨ããï¼éå»20å¹´è¿ãã®æ¥æ¬ã§ç·éè¦ãä¸è¶³ãã¦ããã®ã¯ï¼äººå£æ¸å°ã®çµæã ãã¨ãã声ãèããã¨ãããããã©ãããã¯ï¼æ´ç°æ°ã解éããï¼ã±ã¤ã³ãºã®ç«å ´ã«è¿ãããã«æããããããæ§é çãªãç·éè¦ä¸è¶³ã¨ã§ã形容ã§ãããã®ã§ãå¹³æä¸ã®æ¥æ¬çµæ¸ãè¦ããã¦ããç·éè¦ä¸è¶³ã¯éèæ¿çã ã¨ã財æ¿æ¿çã¨ãã£ããã¯ãçµæ¸æ¿çã§ã¯ï¼ãããã¯éèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ã転æãããã¨ã«ãã£ã¦ã¯ï¼è§£æ±ºã§ããªãåé¡ã¨ãã£ãæèãå¼·ã表ãã¦ããããï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼ãæ§é çãªãç·éè¦ä¸è¶³ã¨ãã表ç¾ã¯ãç°ä¸ç§è£èã経済政策を歴史に学ぶãããåãã¦ãããã®ã®ããã ãåã«è¡¨ç¾ã ãã§ã¯ãªããå 容ã®é¢ã§ãå¤ããè² ã£ã¦ããããã ï¼ãä¸æ¹ã§ãæ 岡ç°æ°ã®ãã®è«æï¼hicksianã«ããè£è¶³ï¼å²¡ç°éã小幅で頑固な日本のデフレーションは問題か?ãï¼ãªã©ã¯æ´ç°æ¬ã®æµããæ±²ããã®ã¨ãã¦è§£éã§ããããããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãã«ç·éè¦ä¸è¶³ï¼æ®ã«ããã¬ï¼ã®åå ãæ±ããã¨ããæå³ã§ãã
æéãç¡ãã®ã§å¼·å¼ã«ã¾ã¨ãã¦ããã¨ãããããã¨ã ãããããã¬ãçããã®ã¯ãããªããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ããé¸ã¶ãã¨ããã人çºçãªãè¦å ã«æ ã£ã¦ããé¢ã大ããã¨ãããã¨ã ããããæ§é çãªãç·éè¦ä¸è¶³ã¯ä¾å¤ã ããã©ãçç£æ§ã®ä¸æãããã¬ã«ã¤ãªãããã©ããã¯ãããªããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ããæ¡ç¨ãã¦ãããã«æ ã£ã¦ãããã¾ããéèæ¿çã®ã¬ã¸ã¼ã ãã¯ç·éè¦ã®ä¸è¶³ããããããã¨ã§ããã¬ãçãå¯è½æ§ãããããã ãããããããã¬ã¯ï¼ã»ã¼ï¼äººçºçãªç¾è±¡ã§ãããã¨æ ¼è¨ã£ã½ãã¾ã¨ãã¦ããããã