Meh
I am not sure this is really a problem. Rare earths are not rare, we just dont want to process them in 'green' countries because its not very green nor pleasant to do.
Beijing has decreed that rare earth metals belong to the state under new regulations said to be aimed at protecting supplies in the name of national security, but which will be seen as another shot in the ongoing tech wars with the US. The Chinese government has approved new regulations governing the mining, smelting, and …
You missed the significance of this statement: “ According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the country produces 60 percent of the world's rare earths, but is responsible for processing nearly 90 percent, importing rare earths from other countries and processing them”
Basically, we need to stop sending rare earths to China - whether that is in the form of ore’s or scrap, as once in China, they will belong to the (Chinese) state and subject to export restrictions. Those new fabs being built in the US, are going to need non-Chinese sources/supply chains for their raw materials; as will all those EV supply chains (raw earths aren’t just used in the battery)…
Vietnam has 19% of known reserves vs China's 38%. You might notice that Vietnam is next to China which might decide to put pressure on Vietnam to maintain control of these rare earths.
China mines much more than do other countries, so a few others could start digging it out if/when China starts throwing its weight around -- although it would take several years to ramp up production.
Until then it is a case of too many eggs in one basket.
It’s not just Vietnam, Cambodia has much of the same geology, so the expectation is that it too will have significant reserves, albeit currently poorly researched and mapped. Similar considerations apply to Thailand. Which would suggest China will be looking at the Indochinese Peninsula as its own backyard…
We don't mine. We don't do "dirty". Just as with fossil fuels where briefly we became the number one producer, even without all the building btw, the USA bottleneck is usually self inflicted. So, maybe not as "scary" as the headlines make it out to be. But, some things would take "time" to get back up and running and expanded. So, I wouldn't say the USA is "tapped out", but rather, we "ban ourselves" to restrict "the dirty" stuff. Just my observation.
Back when China first started to make noises about restricting rare earths supplies, the US started making moves to re-open existing rare earths mines that had closed. As you say, they didn't close because they ran out, they closed because between China undercutting them on price and the cost of US level environmental regulations, it was no longer profitable.
With China restricting supply and driving up the price, and the government considering rare earths to be strategic minerals (and thus getting government help/subsidies like the chip industry for the same reasons) it can once again be profitable to mine here.
China is a newly developed economy. They still naively believe that the govt should be involved in resources vital to their national interests.
Once they become a more fully developed modern economy they will realise that these elements must be owned by hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds of other countries.
Its not China trying to take down Apple, is it? Its the US trying to destroy Huawei, all in the name of 'national security'.
Obviously if you pull a stunt like we did then there will be repercussions. I'm surprised that Apple still has any sales in the PRC The fact is that we (the US) are the country that's devising sanctions, implementing them and enforcing them on anyone who we've got leverage over. This will generate a reaction but this isn't tit-for-tat, "both sides are at it" -- we're the ones taking the initiative. I'm just surprised that we thought that we could go stomping around like this and nobody would even complain, much less react.
Rare earths are not so rare and if you have one of them you can extract the others.
The catch is that a lot of industrial waste is created when processing them.
Environmental conservation, the CCP has heard of it but never seen it so it far cheaper to process them in the PRC.
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Government is both the problem and the solution here. Our environmental regulations are the reason that it's cheaper to process rare earths in China. But those regs are there for a good reason. However the Chinese are playing silly-buggers - and have been since the first time they banned rare earth exports 10-15 years ago. Since we can't trust the Chinese government we're going to have to have a supply chain. China ended the last export ban pretty quickly when Western companies geared up quickly and rare earth prices collapsed - so we need either stockpiles that can tide the economy over long enough to start up the industry again (probably the cheapest solution*) - or we'll have to have a subsidised industry.
*Worstall once said here that global demand for Scandium was something like 50 tonnes a year. So stockpiles needn't be particularly large. I'm aware that's one of the lower numbers.
Last month Federal treasurer orders Chinese-linked investors to offload shares in Australian rare earths mine
Reminded me a little of Dain Ironfoot's "wee proposition."