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2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

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2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout64.42% Increase 9.62 pp[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,036,213 499,599
Percentage 66.16% 31.90%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

A deeply red state entirely in the Bible Belt, Oklahoma has the longest Republican presidential voting streak of any Southern state, having not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since it was won by Lyndon B. Johnson of neighboring Texas in 1964. Since then, the state has only been contested by single digits in the nationwide victories of former Southern governors Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (the latter from neighboring Arkansas) in 1976, 1992, and 1996. In addition, Republican presidential candidates have consistently won every county in the state starting with Texan George W. Bush in 2004 — although Oklahoma County, home to the largest city and state capital Oklahoma City, was closely decided in 2020.

Republican Donald Trump easily kept the state in the GOP column in the past two election cycles, with a 36.4% margin of victory in 2016 and 33.1% four years later. Oklahoma was expected to go for Trump a third time in 2024,[3] and Trump ultimately carried the state by 34.26%, including winning every county. However, much like in 2020, he nearly lost Oklahoma County, winning this county by less than 1.7% despite narrowly increasing his margin there.

The Oklahoma State Election Board approved Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to officially appear on the ballot in the state on May 9.[4]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary

The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Oklahoma Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 66,882 72.98% 36 36
Marianne Williamson 8,356 9.12% 0 0
Dean Phillips 8,182 8.93% 0 0
Stephen Lyons 4,441 4.85% 0 0
Cenk Uygur 1,974 2.15% 0 0
Armando Perez-Serrato 1,809 1.97% 0 0
Total: 91,644 100.00% 40 4 40

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary

The Oklahoma Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Oklahoma Republican primary, March 5, 2024[6][7]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 254,928 81.83% 43 43
Nikki Haley 49,406 15.86%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 3,946 1.27%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,095 0.35%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,022 0.33%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 431 0.14%
David Stuckenberg 397 0.13%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 303 0.10%
Total: 311,528 100.00% 43 43


Libertarian primary

[edit]
2024 Libertarian primary results

The Oklahoma Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Jacob Hornberger and Chase Oliver were qualified by petition for placement on the ballot. This is the first presidential preference primary for any alternative party in the state.[8]

Oliver and Hornberger participated in a forum at Rose State College in Midwest City, Oklahoma, on February 7, 2024.[9][10]

Candidate Votes Percentage
Chase Oliver 569 61.25%
Jacob Hornberger 360 38.75%
Total: 929 100%
Source:[11]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Oklahoma:[12]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[13] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[17] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[18] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[19] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[20] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[21] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[22] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[23] October 3–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 33% –
ActiVote[24] September 13 – October 19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 34% –
SoonerPoll[25] August 24–31, 2024 323 (LV) ± 5.5% 56% 40% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) – 53% 40% 7%
Cygnal (R)[27] April 11–12, 2024 615 (LV) ± 3.9% 61% 30% 9%
Emerson College[28] October 1–3, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 55% 27% 18%
Emerson College[29] October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 59% 30% 11%
SoonerPoll[30] October 4–6, 2022 301 (LV) ± 5.7% 53% 41% 6%
Echelon Insights[31][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (LV) ± 6.3% 63% 30% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[27] April 11–12, 2024 615 (LV) ± 3.83% 56% 24% 7% 2% 1% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) – 50% 36% 14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[31][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (LV) ± 6.3% 53% 28% 19%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,036,213 66.16% Increase 0.79%
Democratic
499,599 31.90% Decrease 0.39%
Independent
16,020 1.02% N/A
Libertarian
9,198 0.59% Decrease 0.99%
Independent
  • Chris Garrity
  • Cody Ballard
 5,143 0.33% N/A
Total votes 1,566,173 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +2.5–5%
  Democratic — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +2.5–5%
  Republican — +5–7.5%
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 5,860 80.76% 1,289 17.76% 107 1.47% 4,571 63.00% 7,256
Alfalfa 1,891 87.55% 236 10.93% 33 1.53% 1,655 76.62% 2,160
Atoka 4,832 85.34% 779 13.76% 51 0.90% 4,053 71.58% 5,662
Beaver 1,938 91.24% 158 7.44% 28 1.32% 1,780 83.80% 2,124
Beckham 6,474 84.32% 1,093 14.24% 111 1.45% 5,381 70.08% 7,678
Blaine 3,054 80.67% 671 17.72% 61 1.61% 2,383 62.95% 3,786
Bryan 13,999 78.59% 3,569 20.04% 244 1.37% 10,430 58.55% 17,812
Caddo 6,886 72.51% 2,414 25.42% 196 2.06% 4,472 47.09% 9,496
Canadian 50,551 69.18% 21,038 28.79% 1,485 2.03% 29,513 40.39% 73,074
Carter 14,945 76.69% 4,277 21.95% 266 1.36% 10,668 54.74% 19,488
Cherokee 11,637 65.29% 5,826 32.69% 360 2.02% 5,811 32.60% 17,823
Choctaw 4,633 82.16% 944 16.74% 62 1.10% 3,689 65.42% 5,639
Cimarron 860 91.98% 66 7.06% 9 0.96% 794 84.92% 935
Cleveland 67,225 56.35% 49,432 41.44% 2,637 2.21% 17,793 14.91% 119,294
Coal 2,155 84.91% 345 13.59% 38 1.50% 1,810 71.32% 2,538
Comanche 20,823 60.74% 12,823 37.40% 638 1.86% 8,000 23.34% 34,284
Cotton 2,067 82.48% 392 15.64% 47 1.88% 1,675 66.84% 2,506
Craig 4,740 78.27% 1,212 20.01% 104 1.72% 3,528 58.26% 6,056
Creek 24,098 76.96% 6,643 21.22% 571 1.82% 17,455 55.74% 31,312
Custer 7,693 75.66% 2,279 22.41% 196 1.93% 5,414 53.25% 10,168
Delaware 14,407 79.56% 3,475 19.19% 226 1.25% 10,932 60.37% 18,108
Dewey 1,984 89.57% 209 9.44% 22 0.99% 1,775 80.13% 2,215
Ellis 1,585 87.47% 197 10.87% 30 1.66% 1,388 76.60% 1,812
Garfield 16,593 75.96% 4,849 22.20% 402 1.84% 11,744 53.76% 21,844
Garvin 9,063 82.46% 1,802 16.40% 126 1.15% 7,261 66.06% 10,991
Grady 20,378 80.60% 4,536 17.94% 369 1.46% 15,842 62.66% 25,283
Grant 1,794 84.42% 295 13.88% 36 1.69% 1,499 70.54% 2,125
Greer 1,511 82.30% 304 16.56% 21 1.14% 1,207 65.74% 1,836
Harmon 709 80.39% 165 18.71% 8 0.91% 544 61.68% 882
Harper 1,284 88.49% 147 10.13% 20 1.38% 1,137 78.36% 1,451
Haskell 4,156 84.20% 718 14.55% 62 1.26% 438 69.65% 4,936
Hughes 3,744 80.36% 831 17.84% 84 1.80% 2,913 62.52% 4,659
Jackson 6,295 78.17% 1,602 19.89% 156 1.94% 4,693 58.28% 8,053
Jefferson 2,020 85.05% 319 13.43% 36 1.52% 1,701 71.62% 2,375
Johnston 3,462 81.84% 684 16.17% 84 1.99% 2,778 65.67% 4,230
Kay 12,483 73.81% 4,136 24.45% 294 1.74% 8,347 49.36% 16,913
Kingfisher 5,745 85.06% 923 13.67% 86 1.27% 4,822 71.39% 6,754
Kiowa 2,569 78.37% 658 20.07% 51 1.56% 1,911 58.30% 3,278
Latimer 3,356 82.28% 681 16.70% 42 1.03% 2,675 65.58% 4,079
LeFlore 15,333 81.76% 3,184 16.98% 237 1.26% 12,149 64.78% 18,754
Lincoln 12,495 80.80% 2,712 17.54% 258 1.67% 9,783 63.26% 15,465
Logan 17,748 73.49% 5,901 24.44% 500 2.07% 11,847 49.05% 24,149
Love 3,510 82.39% 689 16.17% 61 1.43% 2,821 66.22% 4,260
McClain 17,005 79.47% 4,031 18.84% 361 1.69% 12,974 60.63% 21,397
McCurtain 9,485 83.87% 1,696 15.00% 128 1.13% 7,789 68.87% 11,309
McIntosh 6,387 75.68% 1,937 22.95% 115 1.36% 4,450 52.73% 8,439
Major 3,087 88.76% 327 9.40% 64 1.84% 2,760 79.36% 3,478
Marshall 5,348 81.17% 1,169 17.74% 72 1.09% 4,179 63.43% 6,589
Mayes 13,514 77.78% 3,529 20.31% 331 1.91% 9,985 57.47% 17,374
Murray 4,612 78.37% 1,156 19.64% 117 1.99% 3,456 58.73% 5,885
Muskogee 16,560 67.96% 7,400 30.37% 407 1.67% 9,160 37.59% 24,367
Noble 3,853 77.73% 1,009 20.36% 95 1.92% 2,844 57.37% 4,957
Nowata 3,774 82.75% 720 15.79% 67 1.47% 3,054 66.96% 4,561
Okfuskee 3,080 77.23% 854 21.41% 54 1.35% 2,226 55.82% 3,988
Oklahoma 143,618 49.71% 138,769 48.03% 6,536 2.26% 4,849 1.68% 288,923
Okmulgee 10,100 70.39% 3,979 27.73% 270 1.88% 6,121 42.66% 14,349
Osage 14,404 69.83% 5,867 28.44% 357 1.73% 8,537 41.39% 20,628
Ottawa 8,490 75.95% 2,511 22.46% 177 1.58% 5,979 53.49% 11,178
Pawnee 5,405 78.56% 1,355 19.69% 120 1.74% 4,050 58.87% 6,880
Payne 17,962 61.35% 10,560 36.07% 757 2.59% 7,402 25.28% 29,279
Pittsburg 13,841 78.77% 3,473 19.76% 258 1.47% 10,368 59.01% 17,572
Pontotoc 10,967 72.27% 3,895 25.67% 312 2.06% 7,072 46.60% 15,174
Pottawatomie 20,915 72.69% 7,266 25.25% 593 2.06% 13,649 47.44% 28,774
Pushmataha 4,025 85.60% 616 13.10% 61 1.30% 3,409 72.50% 4,702
Roger Mills 1,548 89.32% 160 9.23% 25 1.45% 1,388 80.09% 1,733
Rogers 35,942 76.63% 10,146 21.63% 814 1.74% 25,796 55.00% 46,902
Seminole 5,951 73.98% 1,951 24.25% 142 1.77% 4,000 49.73% 8,044
Sequoyah 12,491 80.16% 2,907 18.65% 185 1.19% 9,584 61.51% 15,583
Stephens 15,092 81.05% 3,236 17.38% 292 1.57% 11,856 63.67% 18,620
Texas 4,319 82.96% 793 15.23% 94 1.81% 3,526 67.73% 5,206
Tillman 2,006 79.19% 500 19.74% 27 1.07% 1,506 59.45% 2,533
Tulsa 145,241 56.53% 106,105 41.30% 5,593 2.18% 39,136 15.23% 256,939
Wagoner 28,487 73.99% 9,330 24.23% 684 1.78% 19,157 49.76% 38,501
Washington 16,836 72.65% 5,793 25.00% 545 2.35% 11,043 47.65% 23,174
Washita 4,030 86.63% 551 11.84% 71 1.53% 3,479 74.79% 4,652
Woods 2,955 81.23% 614 16.88% 69 1.90% 2,341 64.35% 3,638
Woodward 6,231 85.22% 967 13.22% 114 1.56% 5,264 72.00% 7,312
Totals 1,036,213 66.16% 499,599 31.90% 30,361 1.94% 536,614 34.26% 1,566,173

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump received the majority of votes in all five congressional districts.[33][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 59.72% 38.17% Kevin Hern
2nd 77.02% 21.40% Josh Brecheen
3rd 77.51% 26.66% Frank Lucas
4th 65.52% 32.58% Tom Cole
5th 58.00% 39.76% Stephanie Bice

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2020 November General Election Turnout Rates". United States Elections Project. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  4. ^ Savage, Tres; McNutt, Michael; Brinkman, Bennett; Loveless, Tristan; Patterson, Matt (May 12, 2024). "Roundup: Judge indicted, Russ and Drummond spar, Epic and St. Isidore cases continue". NonDoc. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  5. ^ "Official Results". Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  6. ^ "Oklahoma Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  7. ^ "Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  8. ^ "Who is on the presidential primary ballot in Oklahoma?". USA Today.
  9. ^ Denwalt, Dale (February 23, 2024). "Presidential candidates skip Oklahoma ahead of Super Tuesday". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 8, 2024. The two Libertarian Party candidates on Oklahoma's ballot, Chase Oliver and Jacob Hornberger, spoke at Rose State College this month.
  10. ^ "2024 Libertarian OK Presidential Forum". Oklahoma Libertarian Party. February 15, 2024 – via YouTube.
  11. ^ "Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  12. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  19. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  20. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  21. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  22. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  23. ^ Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024). "Trump Has Large Lead in Oklahoma". ActiVote.
  24. ^ Allis, Victor (October 20, 2024). "Trump Has Large Lead in Oklahoma". ActiVote. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  25. ^ Grady, Madison (September 4, 2024). "Trump leads Harris by 16 points; between 12 and 73 percent of Harris voters disapprove of her views". SoonerPoll. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  26. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  27. ^ a b Shucard, Ryan (May 1, 2024). "Statewide Poll: Oklahomans Say Education is a Top Priority, Support Career Pathways, and Oppose Minimum Wage Hikes and Foreign Land Ownership". Cygnal.
  28. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 10, 2023). "Oklahoma Poll: Gov. Stitt and Biden with Low Approval Ratings". Emerson Polling.
  29. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "Oklahoma 2022: Governor Stitt Leads Hofmeister by Nine; Economy is Determining Issue for Voters". Emerson Polling.
  30. ^ Shapard, Bill (October 19, 2022). "Oklahoma Is Still Trump Country, Leads Biden by 12 Points". SoonerPoll.
  31. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  32. ^ "November 5, 2024 Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  33. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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