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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

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For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,336,230 700,921
Percentage 64.55% 33.86%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4]

Trump's 64.5% vote share and 30.7% margin of victory were the best of any Republican in the state's history.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 131,449 71.33% 43 43
Uncommitted 32,908 17.86% 8 8
Marianne Williamson 11,190 6.07% 0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 8,744 4.74% 0
Total: 184,291 100.00% 53 6 59

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Kentucky Republican presidential caucuses

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Republican primary, May 21, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 215,044 85.0% 46 46
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 16,232 6.4%
Uncommitted 8,984 3.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,803 3.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,461 1.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,640 0.7%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 900 0.4%
Total: 253,064 100.0% 46 46

General election

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Candidates

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The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot as of September 8:[7]

Additionally, Kentucky voters have the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate files for office before October 25.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[17] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[18] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) – 60% 35% 5%
Emerson College[20] October 1–3, 2023 450 (RV) ± 4.6% 55% 26% 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[21] August 9–10, 2023 737 (V) – 55% 34% 11%
co/efficient (R)[22] May 18–19, 2023 987 (LV) ± 3.1% 57% 33% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) – 52% 35% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) – 61% 29% 10%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,336,230 64.55% +2.50%
Democratic
700,921 33.86% –2.23%
Independent
16,753 0.81% N/A
Kentucky
7,538 0.36% +0.33%
Libertarian
6,409 0.31% –0.92%
Independent
1,014 0.05% N/A
American Solidarity
610 0.03% +0.01%
Socialism and Liberation
389 0.02% +0.02%
Independent
174 0.01% N/A
Independent
13 <0.01% N/A
Independent
  • Jay Bowman (write-in)
  • De Bowman (write-in)
 10 <0.01% N/A
Socialist Equality
8 <0.01% N/A
Independent
  • John Cheng (write-in)
  • Wayne Waligorski (write-in)
 4 <0.01% N/A
Independent
  • Billy Kelly (write-in)
  • Jason Holderman (write-in)
 4 <0.01% N/A
Independent
  • Cherunda Fox (write-in)
  • Harlan McVay (write-in)
 1 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,070,078 100.00%

By county

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By congressional district

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Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[24][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 72.99% 25.71% James Comer
2nd 69.92% 28.61% Brett Guthrie
3rd 39.62% 58.53% Morgan McGarvey
4th 66.91% 31.37% Thomas Massie
5th 81.32% 17.45% Hal Rogers
6th 56.91% 41.15% Andy Barr

See also

[edit]

Notes

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  1. ^ Candidate has suspended campaign
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  3. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  4. ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  5. ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  6. ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  8. ^ "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  21. ^ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
  22. ^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
  23. ^ "PRESIDENT and VICE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES". vrsws.sos.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  24. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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