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2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

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For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
Not to be confused with 2024 United States presidential election in the District of Columbia.
2024 United States presidential election in Washington
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout78.94% (of registered voters) (Decrease5.20 pp)[1]
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 12 0
Popular vote 2,245,849 1,530,923
Percentage 57.23% 39.01%
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Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Washington voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic party in 2024.

While Trump improved his margin in all fifty states, Washington had the smallest swing to the right, with Trump improving his margin by only 1%, compared to the national swing of about 6%. Washington was the sixth-most Democratic state in the election behind Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, and California; the latter five states voted for Harris by more than 20%. This was the first election since 1956 in which Washington voted to the left of New York (which had the largest swing to the right in this election) and Rhode Island.

With this election, Clallam County ended its 40-year bellwether streak, voting for the losing presidential candidate for the first time since 1976; Trump thus became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying this county since Richard Nixon in 1968. It had previously been the only county in the nation to vote for every presidential election winner since 1980.[3]

Primary election

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Washington Republican presidential primary

The Washington Republican primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Washington Republican primary, March 12, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 601,070 76.43% 43 0 43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 151,485 19.26% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 17,870 2.27% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 8,702 1.11% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 7,318 0.93% 0 0 0
Total: 786,445 100.00% 43 0 43

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Washington Democratic presidential primary

The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.

Washington Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 763,739 83.5% 90
Uncommitted delegates 89,764 9.8% 2
Marianne Williamson 25,308 2.8% 0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 25,190 2.8% 0
Write-in votes 10,966 1.2% 0
Total: 914,967 100.0% 92 19 111

General election

[edit]

In the early hours of October 28 a ballot drop box in Vancouver was found to be on fire damaging a number of ballots.[6] Police stated that a suspicious device had been found next to the box.[6]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Washington:

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid D November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[8] Solid D November 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe D November 4, 2024
CNalysis[11] Solid D November 4, 2024
CNN[12] Safe D November 4, 2024
The Economist[13] Safe D November 4, 2024
538[14] Solid D November 4, 2024
RCP[15] Safe D November 4, 2024
NBC News[16] Solid D November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[17] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 54% 39% 7%
ActiVote[18] October 3–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] October 16–17, 2024 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 55% 40% 6%
Strategies 360[20][B] October 11–16, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%[b]
SurveyUSA[21][C] October 9–14, 2024 703 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 35% 8%
ActiVote[22] September 7 – October 13, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 60% 40% –
Elway Research[23][D] October 8–12, 2024 401 (RV) ± 5.0% 57% 32% 11%
Elway Research[24][D] September 3–6, 2024 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 53% 32% 11%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
DHM Research[25] July 12–17, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 40% 14%[c]
SurveyUSA[26][C] July 10–13, 2024 708 (LV) ± 5.0% 51% 36% 13%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[27][A] July 24–25, 2024 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 38% 6% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[25] July 12–17, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 38% 17%[d]
SurveyUSA[26][C] July 10–13, 2024 708 (LV) ± 5.0% 50% 36% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28][A] May 15–16, 2024 615 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%
The Bullfinch Group[29][E] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 45% 46% 9%
John Zogby Strategies[30][F] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 52% 40% 8%
Echelon Insights[31][G] March 18–21, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.7% 48% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32][A] February 13–14, 2024 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 54% 38% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[33][A] November 14–15, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 38% 10%
Elway Research[34][D] October 30 – November 3, 2023 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 39% 29% 31%[e]
Public Policy Polling (D)[35][A] June 7–8, 2023 773 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 36% 11%
Emerson College[36] September 30 – October 1, 2022 782 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 39% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[37] August 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 41% 6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Elway Research[38][D] May 13–16, 2024 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 34% 3% 1% 0% 17%
The Bullfinch Group[29][E] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 35% 40% 13% 1% 4% 8%
Elway Research[34][D] October 30 – November 3, 2023 403 (RV) ± 5.0% 37% 25% 9% 3% – 26%[f]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[30][F] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 45% 45% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[30][F] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 49% 31% 20%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[25] July 12–17, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 38% 20%[g]

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[25] July 12–17, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 22%[g]

Raphael Warnock vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[25] July 12–17, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 37% 23%[h]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[35][A] June 7–8, 2023 773 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 39% 10%


Results

[edit]
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +2.5-5%
  Democratic — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
2024 United States presidential election in Washington[39]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,245,849 57.23% Decrease 0.74%
Republican
1,530,923 39.01% Increase 0.24%
We the People
54,868 1.40% N/A
Green
29,754 0.76% Increase 0.31%
Libertarian
16,428 0.42% Decrease 1.55%
Socialism and Liberation Claudia de la Cruz
Karina Garcia 		8,695 0.22% Increase 0.10%
Justice for All
7,254 0.18% N/A
Independent
3,323 0.08% N/A
Socialist Equality Joseph Kishore
Jerome White 		917 0.02% N/A
Socialist Workers Rachele Fruit
Dennis Richter 		824 0.02% Decrease 0.04%
Write-in 25,411 0.65% Decrease 0.02%
Total votes 3,924,246 100.00% N/A

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 22%; "I would not vote" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%
  7. ^ a b "Someone else" with 10%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 12%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KOMO-TV
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
  4. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  6. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "November 5, 2024 General Election - Voter Turnout".
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. ^ Smith, Helen (November 6, 2024). "Clallam County voted for losing presidential candidate for first time in 40 years". KING-TV.
  4. ^ "Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  6. ^ a b Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  17. ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024). "Harris Has Large Lead in Washington". ActiVote.
  19. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  20. ^ "KOMO-S360 STATEWIDE POLL" (PDF). Strategies 360. October 24, 2024.
  21. ^ "Evergreen State's 12 Electoral Votes Remain Ever-Blue for 10th Consecutive Election, With Harris Safely Atop Trump, More Trusted on Top Issues". SurveyUSA. October 15, 2024. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
  22. ^ Allis, Victor (October 14, 2024). "Harris Has Large Lead in Washington". ActiVote. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  23. ^ Sowersby, Shauna (October 17, 2024). "WA voters are sticking with party lines and paying attention". Crosscut.
  24. ^ "2024 Election: 2 months out - An independent nonpartisan analysis of public opinion trends in Washington and the Pacific Northwest" (PDF). Crosscut. September 13, 2024.
  25. ^ a b c d e "DHM Panel Washington July 2024 Toplines" (PDF). DHM Research. July 22, 2024.
  26. ^ a b "Washington State Voters Ready to Give Joe Biden a Second Term by 14-Point Margin; Should Biden Not Run, Kamala Harris Wins WA By 15 Points". SurveyUSA. July 15, 2024.
  27. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024). "Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  28. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  29. ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  30. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  31. ^ "Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck". Google Docs. March 21, 2024.
  32. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  33. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  34. ^ a b "Crosscut/Elway Poll - 2024 National Election Preview" (PDF). Crosscut. November 23, 2023.
  35. ^ a b Villeneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  36. ^ "Washington 2022: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray Holds 9-Point Lead in Re-election Bid Against Republican Tiffany Smiley". Emerson College Polling. October 4, 2024.
  37. ^ Jordan, John; Morris, Dick (August 17, 2022). "Washington U.S. Senate Survey" (PDF). McLaughlin & Associates.
  38. ^ Blankinship, Donna Gordon (May 24, 2024). "Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race". Crosscut.
  39. ^ "November 5, 2024 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
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