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2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 West Virginia Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Jim Justice Glenn Elliott
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 514,079 207,548
Percentage 68.80% 27.80%
County results
Justice:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Justice
Republican

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The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and Republican Governor Jim Justice were seeking their first term in office. Justice will succeed independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term.[1]

Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent.[2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.

Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, this seat was universally expected to be easily picked up by Republicans in 2024.[3][4][5][6][7][8] Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931.[a] This is the first time the Republicans won this Senate seat since 1956. This is the first time since 2014 that Republicans won an open seat.

Background

[edit]

Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[9] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[10] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are Congressman Alex Mooney[11] and Governor Jim Justice.[12]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election.[13] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[7] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.[14]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Glenn Elliott
U.S. senators
Local officials
Labor Unions
Zach Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D) $295,678 $238,895 $56,782
Glenn Elliott (D) $125,407 $60,071 $65,335
Don Blankenship (D) $1,000 $0 $1,085
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Elliott
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shrewsbury
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Blankenship
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Glenn Elliott 46,176 45.40%
Democratic Zach Shrewsbury 36,754 36.14%
Democratic Don Blankenship 18,778 18.46%
Total votes 101,708 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Justice (R) $2,956,027 $2,024,749 $931,451
Alex Mooney (R) $3,266,887 $2,629,525 $637,362
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Justice 		Alex
Mooney 		Other Undecided
Emerson College May 2–5, 2024 558 (LV) ± 4.1% 60% 30% 10%[c] –
Research America[A] April 24 – May 1, 2024 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 23% 7% 3%
Osage Research[B] April 22–24, 2024 400(LV) ± 4.9% 49% 35% 5% 11%
NMB Research April 20–22, 2024 500(LV) ± 4.38% 60% 24% – 16%
Research America[A] April 3–9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 24% 4% 6%
Emerson College March 19–21, 2024 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 17% 1% 22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)[C] 		November 13–14, 2023 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 56% 20% 3%[d] 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[D] September 11–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 62% 23% – 15%
Research America[A] August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 58% 26% – 16%
Orion Strategies[E] June 17–20, 2023 651 (LV) ± 6.0% 56% 19% 9% 16%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.7% 53% 12% – 35%
co/efficient April 24–25, 2023 753 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 17% – 38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Justice 		Alex
Mooney 		Patrick
Morrisey 		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R) March 14–17, 2023 360 (LV) ± 5.2% 43% 21% 10% 24%
Tarrance Group (R) February 5–7, 2023 609 (LV)[e] ± 4.1% 53% 16% 21% 8%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Justice
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Mooney
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Justice 138,307 61.84%
Republican Alex Mooney 59,348 26.54%
Republican Bryan Bird 7,001 3.13%
Republican Bryan McKinney 6,573 2.94%
Republican Zane Lawhorn 4,517 2.02%
Republican Janet McNulty 4,404 1.97%
Republican Don Lindsay 3,503 1.57%
Total votes 223,653 100.00%

Other candidates

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

New Progressive Party

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Solid R (flip) May 17, 2024
Inside Elections[4] Solid R (flip) May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe R (flip) April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[5] Safe R (flip) June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[7] Safe R (flip) May 4, 2023
CNalysis[8] Solid R (flip) November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[58] Solid R (flip) August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[59] Safe R (flip) October 23, 2024
538[60] Solid R (flip) October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Glenn Elliott (D)
U.S. senators
Jim Justice (R)
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Glenn Elliott (D) $252,262 $183,127 $69,135
Jim Justice (R) $3,680,408 $2,881,158 $799,423
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Glenn
Elliott (D) 		Jim
Justice (R) 		Undecided
Research America[F] August 21–27, 2024 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 28% 62% 10%[f]
Kaplan Strategies June 3, 2024 464 (RV) ± 4.6% 27% 60% 13%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Jim
Justice (R) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 41% – 31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 38% 51% – 11%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 32% 54% 1% 13%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 29% 43% – 28%
Tarrance Group (R)[G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 42% 52% – 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 32% 47% – 21%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% – 22%
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Alex
Mooney (R) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 37% 31% 31% –
Research America August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14% –
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 41% 1% 18%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% – 34%
Tarrance Group (R)[G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 55% 40% – 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 45% 12% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 28% 16% 7%
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Patrick
Morrisey (R) 		Other Undecided
Tarrance Group (R)[G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 52% 42% – 6%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 50% 9% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 29% 7% 16%
Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (I) 		Jim
Justice (R) 		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R)[G] September 24–26, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 49% 8%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jim Justice 514,079 68.75% +22.49%
Democratic Glenn Elliott 207,548 27.76% −21.81%
Libertarian David Moran 26,075 3.49% −0.68%
Total votes 756,925 100.0%
Republican gain from Independent

By congressional district

[edit]

Justice won both congressional districts.[63]

District Elliott Justice Representative
1st 27% 70% Carol Miller
2nd 28% 68% Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Republicans held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1958 when Republican John Hoblitzell was appointed to continue the term of Democrat Matthew M. Neely before losing his bid to finish Neely's term in a special election the same year.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Zane Lawhorn with 3%; Bryan Bird, Bryan McKinney, and Janet McNulty with 2%; Don Lindsay with 1%
  4. ^ Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  5. ^ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Mooney's campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by WMOV
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Justice's campaign
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
  7. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Weaver, Al (November 9, 2023). "Manchin won't seek reelection in West Virginia". The Hill. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  2. ^ Fortinsky, Kathryn (May 31, 2024). "Sen. Joe Manchin leaves Democratic Party, registers as an independent". CBS News. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  3. ^ a b "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  4. ^ a b "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  5. ^ a b "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  6. ^ a b "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Archived from the original on January 26, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  7. ^ a b c Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Archived from the original on May 21, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  8. ^ a b "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  9. ^ Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018). "Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2021.
  10. ^ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Archived from the original on August 6, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  11. ^ a b "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Archived from the original on November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  12. ^ a b Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Archived from the original on April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  13. ^ Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023). "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  14. ^ Raju, Manu (March 14, 2024). "Schumer discusses 'long-shot scenario' with Manchin: Last-ditch Senate run in West Virginia". CNN. Archived from the original on March 14, 2024. Retrieved March 23, 2024.
  15. ^ Adams, Steven (January 16, 2024). "Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, a Democrat, files for U.S. Senate run". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  16. ^ Young, Charles (January 26, 2024). "Don Blankenship files to run for US Senate — as a Democrat". WV News. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  17. ^ Kaufman, Dan (May 9, 2024). "The Progressive Running to End the Dominance of Coal in West Virginia". The New Yorker. ISSN 0028-792X. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  18. ^ a b c Willingham, Leah (April 22, 2024). "In race for his Senate seat, Joe Manchin endorses West Virginia Democratic Mayor Glenn Elliott". The Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  19. ^ Taylor, Isaac (May 9, 2024). "Group of West Virginia mayors endorse Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott for US Senate". WTRF-TV. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 Primary COPE Election Endorsements". West Virginia AFL-CIO. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  21. ^ "West Virginia". UAW Endorsements. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 West Virginia | CWA Endorsed Candidates | Communications Workers of America". cwa-union.org. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  23. ^ a b c Beard, David (November 30, 2023). "Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Zach Shrewsbury holds campaign kickoff rally in Morgantown". The Dominion Post.
  24. ^ a b Klein, Howie (October 22, 2023). "Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?". Blue America. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  25. ^ "Meet Our 2022 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  26. ^ "ENDORSEMENTS - Progressive Democrats of America". February 22, 2021. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  27. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on August 11, 2023. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  28. ^ a b c d "WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services". apps.sos.wv.gov. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
  29. ^ a b Adams, Steven (November 10, 2023). "Reaction Pours In to Manchin's Impending Senate Retirement". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  30. ^ "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Archived from the original on October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  31. ^ Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Archived from the original on December 5, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022. West Virginia's other House Republican, Rep. Carol Miller, said she has no plans to run for the Senate.
  32. ^ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  33. ^ Sivak, David (April 4, 2023). "Patrick Morrisey won't challenge Manchin, announces run for West Virginia governor". Washington Examiner. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  34. ^ Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023). "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  35. ^ "Gov. Jim Justice receives another endorsement in Senate race". DC News Now | Washington, DC. December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  36. ^ a b "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  37. ^ Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  38. ^ "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 27, 2023. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  39. ^ "U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Endorses Governor Jim Justice for U.S. Senate". October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  40. ^ Everett, Burgess (May 6, 2024). "'Waste of a seat': Manchin's succession becomes a magnet for anti-establishment Republicans". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 30, 2024. Mooney is 'going to be crushed,' said former Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.), a Justice supporter who lost to Mooney in a 2022 House primary due to Trump's endorsement.
  41. ^ "Moore Capito endorses Justice, and Justice doesn't yet say if he'll return that". September 13, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  42. ^ a b Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  43. ^ "BIPAC Action Fund Releases Second Round of 2024 Endorsements". bipacaction.com. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  44. ^ "'Commonsense' GOP group jumps into open primaries". Punchbowl News. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  45. ^ "WV Coal Association Endorses Slate of Pro-Coal Candidates for 2024 Election". www.wvcoal.com. August 30, 2023. Archived from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  46. ^ Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News. Archived from the original on April 23, 2023. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  47. ^ a b c Adams, Steven (July 8, 2023). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul rallies for Mooney in Huntington". Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  48. ^ Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  49. ^ a b c d e McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Archived from the original on May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  50. ^ a b c d Adkins, Roger (April 23, 2023). "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Archived from the original on May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  51. ^ "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. October 30, 2013. Archived from the original on April 14, 2023. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
  52. ^ "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico. April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  53. ^ "Promote Mooney to the Senate". Eagle Forum. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  54. ^ Bowman, Jessico (August 28, 2023). "The Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Alex Mooney for U.S. Senate in West Virginia". Republican Liberty Caucus. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  55. ^ "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Archived from the original on April 20, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  56. ^ Telegraph, CHARLES OWENS Bluefield Daily (September 26, 2023). "West Virginia Republican Assembly endorses Mooney for U.S. Senate". Bluefield Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  57. ^ "SIGMON, MICHAEL R - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 2017. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  58. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  59. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  60. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 11, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  61. ^ "Pennsylvania U.S. Senator John Fetterman Endorses Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott for the U.S. Senate". WTRF. June 19, 2024. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  62. ^ "West Virginia Endorsements". www.nrlvictoryfund.org. National Right to Life Victory Fund. Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  63. ^ https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/122766/web.345435/#/detail/100
[edit]
Official campaign websites
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