Test, Jab, Boost, Repeat
By Jane M. Orient, M.D. – Association of American Physicians and Surgeons – January 13, 2022
Joe Biden introduced his “new” plan to save us from the dread coronavirus. He will provide 500 million “free” tests (paid for by taxpayers or with borrowed money); 1,000 National Guard troops to overstressed hospitals; and more pressure to get vaccinated and boosted.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, we would need 2.3 billion tests per month to test every person over age 12 twice per week at the recommended frequency of twice per week. What type of test, and where would we get them? Pharmacies are running out of home antigen tests. We have no data on the likelihood of false negative or false positive tests, but we do know that with any test, even very good ones, the vast majority of positive tests will be false positives if only a small percentage of the tested group is diseased. Also, tests may remain positive long after a person has recovered and is no longer infectious.
Can the tests harm? False positives lead to isolation with destruction of livelihoods and educational opportunities. We may be having an epidemic of false positive PCR tests. Using too high a cycle threshold, as some labs have routinely done, gives a meaningless result. And from your lab report, you cannot tell what cycle threshold was used.
It is possible that doing the test itself could be fatal. A few military members reportedly had infections with flesh-eating bacteria after getting swabbed, and some of the swabs were found to be contaminated. At least one patient got meningitis when a nasal swab was inserted too far.
Hospitals are indeed overstressed. According to a talk radio host, patients are dying in the halls and waiting room of a local hospital because of short staffing. Will 1,000 troops help? Mayo alone just fired 700 unvaccinated workers. An Ohio physician reported that the troops were causing chaos. They didn’t even know where supplies were kept, and after a 12-hour shift might be dispatched to another state before they had time to learn the local system. Under CMS waivers covering the declared emergency, minimally qualified personnel may be used. And now the most experienced and dedicated workers, the very ones most likely to exercise independent judgment and stand up for patients, are being culled.
Will more vaccines and boosters help? Biden asserts that it’s a “patriotic duty” to get jabbed, and more jabs are the only way to end the disaster. No matter how much respect you have for his mental abilities, he is likely quoting the American Medical Association. The jabs do not appear to be effective against the new variants, and might even be creating them. There is talk of a fourth shot—but apparently no stopping point for adverse effects such as myocarditis in children.
The U.S. has one of the worst records in the world for controlling COVID-19. Moreover, the most reliable source of statistics, insurance actuaries, shows that deaths in the prime working age group are up 40 percent, and disability claims are also up. A 10 percent increase would be the equivalent of a 200-year flood. The claims are not citing COVID-19 as a cause of death. They could be collateral damage from government policy, including poor medical care for virtually everything, or they could be from vaccination.
States are pushing back against the mandates, which are being imposed by executive order through unaccountable administrative agencies. The U.S. Supreme Court should be considering whether the administrative state has the constitutional or statutory authority to impose a medical dictatorship that overrides the states’ authority and citizens’ basic rights. Some Justices, however, seem to be taking the-end-justifies-the-means approach—and that based on egregiously erroneous information. For example, Justice Breyer asserted that there were 750 million cases (in a population of about 330 million) and Justice Sotomayor asserted that there were 100,000 hospitalized children (instead of fewer than 4,000, mostly not for COVID-19). The harms from the mandated vaccines were simply ignored.
Even if the “experts” Biden is relying upon, under the titular leadership of Anthony Fauci, were right this time, the precedent could grant unlimited power to a medical dictatorship to force disastrous policy on all Americans.
Instead of endlessly repeating failed policy, how about firing the generals who are in charge of the losing war?
37,927 Deaths and 3,392,632 Injuries Following COVID Shots in European Database as Young People Continue to Die
By Brian Shilhavy | Health Impact News | January 19, 2022
The European (EEA and non-EEA countries) database of suspected drug reaction reports is EudraVigilance, verified by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and they are now reporting 37,927 fatalities, and 3,392,632 injuries following injections of four experimental COVID-19 shots:
- COVID-19 MRNA VACCINE MODERNA (CX-024414)
- COVID-19 MRNA VACCINE PFIZER-BIONTECH
- COVID-19 VACCINE ASTRAZENECA (CHADOX1 NCOV-19)
- COVID-19 VACCINE JANSSEN (AD26.COV2.S)
From the total of injuries recorded, almost half of them (1,611,423) are serious injuries.
“Seriousness provides information on the suspected undesirable effect; it can be classified as ‘serious’ if it corresponds to a medical occurrence that results in death, is life-threatening, requires inpatient hospitalisation, results in another medically important condition, or prolongation of existing hospitalisation, results in persistent or significant disability or incapacity, or is a congenital anomaly/birth defect.”
A Health Impact News subscriber in Europe ran the reports for each of the four COVID-19 shots we are including here. It is a lot of work to tabulate each reaction with injuries and fatalities, since there is no place on the EudraVigilance system we have found that tabulates all the results.
Since we have started publishing this, others from Europe have also calculated the numbers and confirmed the totals.*
Here is the summary data through January 15, 2022.
Total reactions for the mRNA vaccineTozinameran (code BNT162b2,Comirnaty) from BioNTech/ Pfizer: 17,054 deaths and 1,624,526 injuries to 15/01/2022
- 45,865 Blood and lymphatic system disorders incl. 238 deaths
- 53,606 Cardiac disorders incl. 2,459 deaths
- 500 Congenital, familial and genetic disorders incl. 52 deaths
- 21,641 Ear and labyrinth disorders incl. 11 deaths
- 1,727 Endocrine disorders incl. 5 deaths
- 24,752 Eye disorders incl. 38 deaths
- 128,813 Gastrointestinal disorders incl. 673 deaths
- 403,800 General disorders and administration site conditions incl. 4,871 deaths
- 1,855 Hepatobiliary disorders incl. 85 deaths
- 17,690 Immune system disorders incl. 88 deaths
- 71,334 Infections and infestations incl. 1,829 deaths
- 31,663 Injury, poisoning and procedural complications incl. 321 deaths
- 40,469 Investigations incl. 492 deaths
- 10,933 Metabolism and nutrition disorders incl. 271 deaths
- 193,866 Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders incl. 209 deaths
- 1,534 Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps) incl. 144 deaths
- 266,754 Nervous system disorders incl. 1,807 deaths
- 2,384 Pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions incl. 72 deaths
- 241 Product issues incl. 3 deaths
- 29,339 Psychiatric disorders incl. 198 deaths
- 5,857 Renal and urinary disorders incl. 261 deaths
- 63,007 Reproductive system and breast disorders incl. 7 deaths
- 69,276 Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders incl. 1,833 deaths
- 74,806 Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders incl. 140 deaths
- 3,643 Social circumstances incl. 22 deaths
- 18,264 Surgical and medical procedures incl. 185 deaths
- 40,907 Vascular disorders incl. 740 deaths
Total reactions for the mRNA vaccine mRNA-1273(CX-024414) from Moderna: 10,782 deaths and 510,009 injuries to 15/01/2022
- 11,363 Blood and lymphatic system disorders incl. 118 deaths
- 16,962 Cardiac disorders incl. 1,110 deaths
- 188 Congenital, familial and genetic disorders incl. 9 deaths
- 5,960 Ear and labyrinth disorders incl. 6 deaths
- 480 Endocrine disorders incl. 6 deaths
- 7,107 Eye disorders incl. 36 deaths
- 41,950 Gastrointestinal disorders incl. 399 deaths
- 135,810 General disorders and administration site conditions incl. 3,551 deaths
- 773 Hepatobiliary disorders incl. 54 deaths
- 5,003 Immune system disorders incl. 20 deaths
- 20,787 Infections and infestations incl. 1,031 deaths
- 9,730 Injury, poisoning and procedural complications incl. 205 deaths
- 11,563 Investigations incl. 390 deaths
- 4,660 Metabolism and nutrition disorders incl. 260 deaths
- 62,441 Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders incl. 215 deaths
- 653 Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps) incl. 81 deaths
- 85,799 Nervous system disorders incl. 1,007 deaths
- 862 Pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions incl. 8 deaths
- 96 Product issues incl. 4 deaths
- 8,976 Psychiatric disorders incl. 178 deaths
- 2,899 Renal and urinary disorders incl. 211 deaths
- 11,475 Reproductive system and breast disorders incl. 9 deaths
- 22,050 Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders incl. 1,142 deaths
- 26,090 Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders incl. 95 deaths
- 2,158 Social circumstances incl. 45 deaths
- 2,608 Surgical and medical procedures incl. 199 deaths
- 11,566 Vascular disorders incl. 393 deaths
Total reactions for the vaccine AZD1222/VAXZEVRIA (CHADOX1 NCOV-19) from Oxford/ AstraZeneca: 7,749 deaths and 1,136,049 injuries to 15/01/2022
- 13,763 Blood and lymphatic system disorders incl. 271 deaths
- 20,678 Cardiac disorders incl. 812 deaths
- 229 Congenital familial and genetic disorders incl. 7 deaths
- 13,283 Ear and labyrinth disorders incl. 8 deaths
- 673 Endocrine disorders incl. 5 deaths
- 19,849 Eye disorders incl. 31 deaths
- 106,411 Gastrointestinal disorders incl. 422 deaths
- 299,266 General disorders and administration site conditions incl. 1,826 deaths
- 1,017 Hepatobiliary disorders incl. 67 deaths
- 5,311 Immune system disorders incl. 37 deaths
- 39,194 Infections and infestations incl. 591 deaths
- 13,232 Injury poisoning and procedural complications incl. 195 deaths
- 25,062 Investigations incl. 200 deaths
- 12,894 Metabolism and nutrition disorders incl. 122 deaths
- 166,466 Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders incl. 157 deaths
- 719 Neoplasms benign malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps) incl. 38 deaths
- 231,313 Nervous system disorders incl. 1,142 deaths
- 605 Pregnancy puerperium and perinatal conditions incl. 19 deaths
- 198 Product issues incl. 1 death
- 20,856 Psychiatric disorders incl. 69 deaths
- 4,281 Renal and urinary disorders incl. 72 deaths
- 16,524 Reproductive system and breast disorders incl. 3 deaths
- 40,829 Respiratory thoracic and mediastinal disorders incl. 1,035 deaths
- 51,563 Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders incl. 61 deaths
- 1,596 Social circumstances incl. 8 deaths
- 1,804 Surgical and medical procedures incl. 29 deaths
- 28,433 Vascular disorders incl. 521 deaths
Total reactions for the COVID-19 vaccine JANSSEN (AD26.COV2.S) from Johnson & Johnson: 2,342 deaths and 122,048 injuries to 15/01/2022
- 1,186 Blood and lymphatic system disorders incl. 48 deaths
- 2,420 Cardiac disorders incl. 196 deaths
- 40 Congenital, familial and genetic disorders incl. 1 death
- 1,260 Ear and labyrinth disorders incl. 3 deaths
- 98 Endocrine disorders incl. 1 death
- 1,591 Eye disorders incl. 10 deaths
- 9,402 Gastrointestinal disorders incl. 88 deaths
- 32,903 General disorders and administration site conditions incl. 659 deaths
- 146 Hepatobiliary disorders incl. 13 deaths
- 527 Immune system disorders incl. 10 deaths
- 7,442 Infections and infestations incl. 198 deaths
- 1,092 Injury, poisoning and procedural complications incl. 25 deaths
- 5,756 Investigations incl. 127 deaths
- 725 Metabolism and nutrition disorders incl. 56 deaths
- 16,739 Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders incl. 54 deaths
- 82 Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps) incl. 8 deaths
- 22,885 Nervous system disorders incl. 242 deaths
- 54 Pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions incl. 1 death
- 29 Product issues
- 1,677 Psychiatric disorders incl. 21 deaths
- 506 Renal and urinary disorders incl. 29 deaths
- 2,720 Reproductive system and breast disorders incl. 6 deaths
- 4,322 Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders incl. 293 deaths
- 3,652 Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders incl. 10 deaths
- 395 Social circumstances incl. 4 deaths
- 822 Surgical and medical procedures incl. 72 deaths
- 3,577 Vascular disorders incl. 167 deaths
*These totals are estimates based on reports submitted to EudraVigilance. Totals may be much higher based on percentage of adverse reactions that are reported. Some of these reports may also be reported to the individual country’s adverse reaction databases, such as the U.S. VAERS database and the UK Yellow Card system. The fatalities are grouped by symptoms, and some fatalities may have resulted from multiple symptoms.
Pfizer-backed CDC Foundation partnered with Facebook to fund social media tactics to increase “vaccine uptake”
By Didi Rankovic | Reclaim The Net | January 19, 2022
The Pfizer-sponsored CDC Foundation has teamed up with Big Tech and Big Pharma giants Facebook and Merck, among others, in order to promote Covid vaccines.
The pressure group calls itself the Alliance for Advancing Health Online and some details about its purpose and organization are revealed in an email sent to the White House and obtained and shared by the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN).
Other than the CDC Foundation, Facebook’s partners are the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, Sabin Vaccine Institute, the Bay Area Global Health Alliance, and the Vaccine Confidence Project at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
During the fiscal years 2014 through 2018, the CDC Foundation reportedly received $79.6 million from companies Pfizer, Biogen, Merck, and others. Pfizer continues to be listed as a current donor.
ICAN noted that it emerges from the email – sent by Facebook’s US Public Policy head Payton Iheme – that the purpose of the initiative is to use social media and platforms “to build confidence in and drive uptake of vaccines.”
ICAN is a network whose mission is to promote putting authority over health choices in the hands of people whom these decisions affect, and parse out true medical information from that tainted by financial interest and advertising, which, they say, leads to “medical coercion” rather than tangible understanding of issues.
Now the group is suggesting there is conflict in the CDC Foundation forming an alliance to drive home the message of the need to get vaccinated as a matter of public health concern – when those selling the vaccines are members of that alliance. This is particularly pertinent as Facebook has been censoring some criticism of Pfizer vaccines.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the US public health agency, but it is a handy technicality in this and similar instances that the CDC Foundation has been set up as a private nonprofit incorporated in Georgia, established by Congress through the Public Health Service Act.
Facebook and Merck are throwing in $40 million each to start off the operation, and the money will go towards research into “advancing public understanding of how social media and behavioral sciences can be leveraged to improve the health of communities around the world.”
The first grants will be given to researchers and organizations who are exploring ways of using social media and digital platforms to build confidence in and drive uptake of vaccines, the email said.
Facebook’s representative also wrote that the corporation and its partners in the alliance are looking to expand their work.
Rather than rivals, Iran and Russia are partners against US energy order
Press TV – January 19, 2022
Iran and Russia are thought to have conflicting interests in the economic field, especially in energy, but that’s not the case.
The public opinion has been shaped in such a way to believe that Iran and Russia have conflicting interests in the economic field, especially in energy, but this article is arguing that it is not the case.
Iran’s Minister of Petroleum Javad Owji and his Russian counterpart Nikolay Shulginov on Tuesday discussed energy cooperation in a meeting in Moscow which is hosting President Ehrahim Raisi on his most important visit abroad since taking office in August.
Oil and gas cooperation, the OPEC+ agreement, and transfer of technology featured in their discussions.
Owji planned to discuss options for shipping Iranian natural gas to Pakistan and India with the participation of Russian companies, and manufacturing of oil industry equipment. He will also hold talks with Russia’s main OPEC+ representative, according to deputy prime minister and former energy minister Alexander Novak.
The two sides further discussed preparation and the agenda for the next meeting of the Russian-Iranian government commission on trade and economic cooperation, the Russian energy ministry said in a statement.
Iran’s foreign, petroleum and economy ministers are accompanying President Raisi in his two-day visit to Moscow.
The two sides plan to discuss a whole gamut of bilateral cooperation. The economic topics could be the fate of a promised $5 billion Russian loan, supplying some Iranian oil to global markets through Russian companies, devising new oil-for-goods deal, increasing the current record $3 billion bilateral trade to $5 billion and doing business in national currencies.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian wrote in Russia’s Sputnik news agency that the two sides are determined to update a 20-year cooperation treaty they signed in 2001.
They plan “a new road map based on a balanced, active, dynamic and smart foreign policy, which lays an emphasis on cooperating with all neighbors, especially the Russian Federation, and advancing economic diplomacy”, he said.
“For their bilateral relations, the two countries are determined to update the Treaty on the Basis of Mutual Relations and Principles of Cooperation between Iran and Russia in harmony with global developments,” Amir-Abdollahian said.
The agreement, signed in March 2001, was originally meant to last four 10 years, but it has twice been extended for five years.
The visit comes as Iran and the remaining signatories to a 2015 nuclear deal which include Russia are working strenuously to revive the JCPOA agreement which has been on life support since the US abandoned it in 2018.
Among Russian energy companies, Lukoil has already said it would be “happy” to return to talks to develop Iran’s Ab Teymour and Mansouri oil fields, which were put on hold in late 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions on the country’s oil industry in the wake of its withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
President Raisi, however, has signaled hedging its bets on the success of the Vienna talks and instead pushed for maximum engagement with Iran’s neighbors and the countries which are less at Washington’s beck and call.
Iran and Russia are interchangeably estimated to hold the first and second largest gas reserves in the world. The two countries are also major oil producers, meaning both countries are energy superpowers in terms of their hydrocarbon reserves combined.
According to the head of the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum’s Institute for International Energy Studies, Iran, Russia and the countries supplying hydrocarbon resources will suffer from the new American order in the energy market, and as a result the great interests of Russia and Iran in the energy market will be in working together against this order.
“Unfortunately, the former officials of the country have shaped the mentality of public opinion in such a way that Iran and Russia are thought to have conflicting interests in the economic field, especially in energy. As a result, according to this analysis of the conflict of interests of the two countries, no effective action has been taken so far to increase economic cooperation with Russia,” Mohammad Sadeq Jokar told Fars news agency.
To prove the conflict of interests between Iran and Russia, he said, it is always argued that the two countries compete in the European gas market and that Russia does not want to lose its monopoly on the European market and share it with Iran.
“This analysis has a fundamental drawback. In fact, the question is whether the targeted markets of Iran and Russia are still common markets. Given the developments in the energy market, the answer to this question is no, and it must be said that at present the two countries do not have a common target market in which to compete,” Jokar said.
According to the energy specialist, those defending Iran’s gas exports to Europe justify the trade for its political benefits, arguing that they would make Europe dependent on Iranian gas.
“My first question is what market share Iran can gain from such exports,” he said, noting that Russia plans to export 200 billion cubic meters of gas a year. “Do they really think that, for example, with the annual export of 10 billion cubic meters, Europe will become dependent on Iranian gas?”
Given that 90 percent of the gas produced in Iran is consumed domestically and the fact that the country currently does not have any LNG plants, its best option is to export its surplus output to neighbors through pipelines.
“If Iran has gas for export, the priority is definitely to export gas to Oman, for example. When the Oman gas market is available to Iran, why should we export gas to Europe, which has a lower price and we have to pay transit fees to Turkey” Jokar asked.
“Why should we take gas to Europe when the Iraqi and Kuwaiti gas markets are available to Iran for export? This is not economically viable at all,” he said.
“If Iran, according to its economic and political priorities in the gas market, moves to own the market in Pakistan and the southern Persian Gulf, Russia will not have a fundamental issue with that. Of course, in some markets there is still competition between Iran and Russia – in the Turkish gas market, for example.”
Jokar touched on the legacy of the “America first” agenda initiated by former president Donald Trump aimed at transforming the US into a global energy superpower.
Like other international economists, Jokar believers the global energy system is in transition to a new energy order characterized by the emergence of the United States as a net oil exporter, the shale revolution and the gradual shift towards low-carbon sources and renewables.
“This will hurt traditional suppliers of hydrocarbon resources such as Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia,” he said. “This is where it can be seen that the greater interests of Russia and Iran in the energy market lie in standing together against this new order.”
The economist touched on some of the grounds for cooperation between Iran and Russia, citing the mini-LNG technology which the Russians have recently acquired.
“Also after the sanctions, Rosneft has localized more than 70% of the required oil import services. Due to the technology sanctions of Western companies against the two countries, Iran and Russia can also exchange technology in this field,” he said.
Jokar also cited leading Iranian industrial group Mapna, saying it has a high capacity to overhaul Russian power plants.
“Or we have achieved some successes in some upstream technologies that can be exchanged with the Russians. Some Iranian companies cooperated with the Russians on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This means that we also have capabilities to offer to the Russians, and it is not the case that the game is one-sided.”
Moreover, the Russians have good experience in “clean coal” projects which include capturing carbon emissions from burning coal and storing them under the Earth.
“It is not clear why we do not pay attention to the use of coal at all. Coal can be used to generate electricity in some areas that do not have air pollution problems, and the Russians, and especially the Chinese, have good experience in this area,” Jokar said.
Is The TAPI Pipeline Finally Ready To Go?
Zero Hedge | January 19, 2022
Submitted by James Durso, Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy.
The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline has been long aborning, but its prospects recently got a shot in the arm.
The 1100-mile, $10 billion project has seen numerous delays since the pipeline consortium was announced in late 2014, though the project was first mooted in 1991. Construction started in early 2018 with a projected in-service date of 2021, but halted later that year after workers clearing the route were killed by unknown assailants. Also, the project’s $10 billion cost estimate is a decade old, and an update may cause further delay to the Asian Development Bank-funded effort that is now slated to resume work in September 2022. Turkmenistan will loan Afghanistan the funds for its share of the project, to be repaid from gas transit revenues.
Representatives of the government of Tajikistan recently met officials in Afghanistan, and the Taliban announcement that it will dedicate 30,000 troops to pipeline security may motivate the parties to start construction.
The completed pipeline will allow Turkmenistan to reduce its reliance on its biggest gas customer, China, which has recently taken most of Turkmenistan’s gas exports, though in 2021 the country doubled its gas exports to Russia, which used to be the biggest importer of Turkmen gas until it was displaced by China in 2010. The pipeline will generate additional income that Ashgabat can use to improve services to citizens, a priority after the recent unrest in neighboring Kazakhstan.
But there may be competing opportunities. For example, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan recently signed a trilateral gas swap deal for up to 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. It’s not a large amount – Turkmenistan exports about 40bcm to China every year – but it’s another income stream that should be managed with an eye to future growth. Then there’s the possibility of a connection to the proposed Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) to supply Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). Connecting to the SGC would require a 200-mile subsea pipe between Baku and Türkmenba?y, but may face opposition from Iran and Russia on (probably spurious) environmental grounds. Once the politics are resolved, the project would likely be cheaper and carry less of a security burden than the overland TAPI route, and build on the January 2021 agreement between Baku and Ashgabat to jointly develop the Dostluq (“friendship”) oil and natural gas field in the Caspian Sea.
For Afghanistan, the project would provide transit fees of about $500 million per year, along with an annual share of 500 million cubic meters of gas for the first ten years, ultimately increasing to 1.5 bcm per year.
For the Taliban government, a successful project would: demonstrate it can be a reliable partner in a major infrastructure project, employ demobilized Taliban troops so they don’t defect to the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda, earn revenue to pay for electricity imports (the country relies on imports for 78% of its power), demonstrate to China it is safe to invest in Afghanistan, and be an opportunity for cooperation with Pakistan despite the dispute over their shared border.
Of course, Kabul will have to figure out what to do with that natural gas, in addition to its one trillion cubic feet of reserves. The U.S.-driven development plan for the country emphasized renewables, like solar and wind, and the U.S.-funded $335 million Tarakhil Power Plant near Kabul, which relied on expensive, imported diesel fuel, is now used as a back-up facility when hydropower and imported power aren’t available. An International Finance Corporation-sponsored 59-megawatt gas-to-power plant in Mazar-i-Sharif would have boosted the country’s current total domestic generation by up to 30 percent, but can it be revived under the Taliban?
And time is of the essence as Uzbekistan recently reduced its power exports by 60%, possibly due to increased domestic demand as winter sets in, possibly to nudge Kabul (or the UN) to start paying the $90 million owed to power suppliers in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran.
For Pakistan, the pipeline would help solve the country’s persistent energy shortfalls, such as the deficit between current gas production of 4 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCFD) against demand of 6 BCFD. By 2025, gas production is expected to fall to less 1 BCFD due to depletion of gas reserves while demand increases to 8 BCFD.
And Pakistan won’t have to wait to 2025 for an economic impact: Between 2008 and 2012, 40 percent of Pakistan’s textile sector moved to Bangladesh, one reason being the uneven supply of gas and electricity.
Then there’s Pakistan’s view of its regional interests and its endless search for “strategic depth.” The pipeline would be an independent source of revenue for Afghanistan, just when Pakistan feels the Taliban government should be beholden to it. And India would be able to increase the share of gas in its energy mix from 6.5% to 15%, possibly encouraging more trade between Kabul and New Delhi. To Islamabad, it will add to an already bad outcome: the ungrateful Taliban still aren’t helping Pakistan isolate the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, while India is expected to be the world’s fastest growing economy in 2022, according to the World Bank.
They say “all politics is local” and that may be the case here. One Pakistani observer, Hina Mahar Nadeem, noted the country’s gas shortfalls have a silver lining – for the interests that control the import of expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG). Accordingly, TAPI and the much-delayed (mostly by U.S. sanctions on Iran) Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline are a threat to their economic and political power.
In late 2020, Pakistan and Russia signed a deal to complete the 700-mile Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, to move LNG from Port Qasim (Karachi) to Kasur, in the Punjab. Pakistan may be treating with Russia to balance against China, or maybe the deal was decided on strictly dollars-and-cents terms. Regardless, this project may crowd out attention and funding for Pakistan’s phase of TAPI.
A richer energy mix and pipeline transit revenues would strengthen Pakistan as it negotiates new efforts with China under the umbrella of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan’s leaders will need to strengthen their position vis-à-vis China while demonstrating to Beijing they are a reliable partner that will develop energy resources that can accommodate China’s projects. But first, those leaders must take on entrenched business and national security interests to successfully support TAPI, despite the economic benefits to its neighbors. But this assumes the country’s leaders aren’t captive (willing or otherwise) to their business confederates and the securicrats.
For India, TAPI would add to the country’s energy mix, propelling its impressive economic growth. India is the world’s third-largest energy consuming country, and has doubled energy use since 2000, with 80% of demand still being met by coal, oil and solid biomass. TAPI gas would allow India to use less coal, helping it meet its COP26 carbon emission goal, and satisfy increased energy demand by 2030 of 25% to 35% according to the International Energy Agency.
India has built a connection for TAPI at Fazilka at the Indo-Pakistan border in the Punjab region, a location on the border with Pakistan that may be subject to cross-border attacks by Pakistan-affiliated groups. Will Pakistan or its proxies be able to resist attacking such a key piece of infrastructure if India-Pakistan relations fail to improve?
For India, the best approach may be “wait and see” if the U.S. threatens sanctions against TAPI partners, whether the Taliban can prove they know how to govern and secure the country against the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, and how serious is the announced Russia-Pakistan pipeline deal.
Where does this leave Turkmenistan?
It, too, should take it slow. It is no longer 2014, and it now has opportunities for increased swaps with Iran and Azerbaijan, and further opportunities with Iran may blossom if Tehran and Washington can secure a nuclear deal. The opportunity to connect to Europe via the TCP/SGC may present more revenue with fewer security concerns, or iffy partners like Pakistan and Afghanistan. Also, Washington needs to clear the way regarding sanctioned officials in Kabul, though the acting minister of defense, Mullah Muhammad Yaqub, who declared “I am directly responsible for and overseeing the security of the TAPI project” hasn’t been sanctioned by Washington… yet.
Washington might get behind TAPI in the wake of the recent deployment of Collective Security Treaty Organization peacekeeping troops to Kazakhstan, which has increased Russia’s clout in Central Asia. Increased revenue for Ashgabat that can be directed to services for its citizens may prevent the public unrest that gave Moscow an opening to intervene, and Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow may not need much convincing in this regard.
But it may serve Ashgabat well to ask Washington for a blanket sanctions exemption for all project principals and suppliers, and any government officials in the mix, to make it clear who bears responsibility if the project again fails to launch. If this happens, it will be a shabby way to treat ally India, and in Pakistan it will be interpreted as U.S. revenge against the country for supporting the Taliban.
The “push” of increased regional influence for Moscow and the “pull” of clean energy for ally India will hopefully make Washington green-light (or get out of the way of) the long-delayed project.
The Covid narrative is falling apart, piece by piece
The momentum feels to me like it is accelerating…
By Steve Kirsch | January 19, 2022
Some narrative pieces have been falling apart were recently brought to my attention.
Here are the four new truths:
- The vaccines make you more likely to get COVID: It was supposed to make things better, but we’re basically mandating you get a shot that makes you more likely to get infected. That is totally insane, but that’s what we are doing. Check out the graphs here. No age confounding this time: UK Government Data proves the Covid-19 Vaccines DOUBLE your chances of catching Covid-19.
- The vaccines aren’t safe: I’m now hearing a lot from prominent formerly pro-vax docs that they are turning on the vaccine. This is great news. Nobody is going public yet, but they are all pissed and realize they have been misled. It will not be pretty. This is of course great news.
- Cloth masks don’t work: The CDC finally admits that cloth masks that they said worked before and that everyone wore (including Rochelle Walensky) don’t actually work. The other mask types don’t work either, but it will take them longer to figure out the obvious. P100 respirators do work but only a small percentage of people know that. I can’t wait to see Rochelle Walensky wear a P100 respirator; after all, she should be modelling best practices.
- Kids shouldn’t have boosters shots: Top WHO scientist finally admits that kids shouldn’t get boosted!!!! Yet the US colleges and universities aren’t going to back off. Someone is very wrong here and for once it isn’t the WHO.
Here are some older truths that should have been realized by now, but are still going on:
- Remdesivir is killing patients, not saving them: RDV is standard operating procedure in the US, but everyone I talk to says it doesn’t work and is much more likely to kill patients than save them. Doctors are forced to give it by hospital policy.
- Social distancing doesn’t work: The MIT study came out in April, 2021 that showed social distancing makes no difference. 6 feet or 60 feet made no difference. People still haven’t figured this out.