Understanding the Optimism Bias

While we often like to think of ourselves as highly rational, researchers have found that the human brain can be too optimistic for its own good.

If you were asked to estimate how likely you are to get divorced, come down with an illness, experience job loss, or have an accident, you would likely underestimate the probability that such events will ever happen to you.

Let’s talk about how the optimism bias affects your life, as well as what research has said about it.

What Is the Optimism Bias?

Your brain has a built-in optimism bias. The phenomenon is also called "the illusion of invulnerability," "unrealistic optimism," and a "personal fable."

This bias leads us to believe that we are less likely to suffer misfortune and more likely to attain success than reality would suggest. We believe we will live longer than the average, that our children will be smarter than the average, and that we will be more successful in life than the average. But by definition, we can't all be above average.

The optimism bias was first described by a psychologist named Neil Weinstein in 1980. Weinstein found that most college students believed their chances of developing an alcohol use disorder or getting divorced were lower than their peers. Most of the students also believed that their chances of having positive outcomes in life, like owning their own home and living into old age, were much higher than their peers.

Negative Effects of the Optimism Bias

The optimism bias does not mean that we have an overly sunny outlook on our own lives. It can lead to poor decision-making, which may have disastrous results.

For example, people might skip their yearly physical, fail to wear their seatbelt, choose not to save money for an emergency fund, or decide not to wear sunscreen because they mistakenly believe that things like getting ill, having a car accident, experiencing a financial catastrophe, or getting skin cancer won’t happen to them.

Cognitive neuroscientist Tali Sharot, author of The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain, notes that the optimism bias is widespread and can be seen in cultures all over the world.

Benefits of the Optimism Bias

Sharot suggests that while this bias can lead to negative outcomes at times, like foolishly engaging in risky behaviors or making poor choices about your health, it can also have benefits. If we expect good things to happen to us, we are more likely to be happy. In a 2012 TED Talk, Sharot explained that this optimism can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. By believing that they will be successful, people are, in fact, more likely to succeed.

Optimism enhances well-being by creating a sense of anticipation about the future.

Being optimistic also motivates us to pursue our goals. After all, if we didn't think that we could achieve success, why would we even bother trying? Optimists are also more likely to take measures to protect their health, such as exercising and eating a nutritious diet.

Causes of the Optimism Bias

Why are we so geared toward optimism? Some experts think that our brains were wired to be optimistic by evolution, while others cite cognitive and motivational factors.

When we evaluate our risks, we compare our situation to others. But we are also egocentric, meaning that we focus on ourselves instead of realistically looking at how we compare to others.

We're also highly motivated to be optimistic. By believing that we are unlikely to fail and more likely to succeed, we have more self-esteem, lower stress levels, and better overall well-being.

Contributing Factors

The following are some of the factors that make the optimism bias more likely to occur:

• Frequency: Infrequent events are more vulnerable to the optimism bias than more frequent ones. For example, people may think they are not likely to be affected by hurricanes and floods simply because these occurrences don't happen every day.
• Control: We experience the optimism bias more when we think events are under our direct control and influence. As Sharot described in her TED Talk, it's not that people believe things will magically work out; they think that they have the skills and know-how to make it so.
• Probability: The optimism bias is more likely to occur if the negative event is perceived as unlikely. For example, if a person believes that getting skin cancer is rare, they are more likely to be unrealistically optimistic about their risk and may forgo preventive steps like slathering on sunscreen when they’re at the beach.

Below are some of the factors that decrease the optimism bias:

• Going through something yourself: Experiencing certain events can reduce the optimism bias, as it shows that they are possible and perhaps even more likely than a person previously believed.
• Comparing to others: People are less likely to experience the optimism bias when they are comparing themselves to close loved ones, such as friends and family members.
• Mental health: Research suggests that people who are depressed or anxious are less likely to experience the optimism bias.

Optimism Bias Research

While researchers have attempted to help people reduce the optimism bias—especially to promote health-supporting behaviors and discourage risky behaviors—they have found that reducing or eliminating the bias is very difficult.

Studies that have tried to reduce the optimism bias through actions such as educating participants about risk factors, encouraging volunteers to consider high-risk examples, and educating subjects about why they were at risk have shown these attempts lead to little change and, in some cases, increase the optimism bias.

For example, telling someone the risks of dying from a particular lifestyle habit, such as smoking can make them feel more “invincible” compared to other people.