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The Unz Review •�An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
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Open Thread 178: Russia/Ukraine
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The last Open Thread is getting very sluggish, so here’s another one. Again, please use the MORE Tag to hide all but your first Tweet and otherwise keep the thread load manageable as long as possible.

— Ron Unz

•�Category: Foreign Policy •�Tags: NATO, Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine
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  1. A123 says: •�Website

    Mr. Unz,

    ��� We appreciate the new thread.
    ____

    Other post-AK regulars,

    ��� Please report technical issues here:

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/bugs-suggestions-2/?showcomments#comments

    ��� I should obtain a new cellphone in the future,
    ��� thus ending my status as Canary in the Coal Mine.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Agree: Aedib
  2. Let the Cauldron battles commence. Cooking Pot Slaughter.

  3. Interesting how we are seeing an inversion of past narratives in the IT field.

    In the ’80s, Steve Jobs was arguing in favor of lifting the export ban on computers for Russia, saying that each computer was a revolutionary tool that could help spread freedom. Back then, technology within Russia was tightly controlled, at least in theory, and xerox machines were kept behind locked doors, with some level of political supervision, so being able to hook-up a printer to a computer was a big deal. Western businesses, everyone and their brother, were smuggling computers into Russia, to use them as sweeteners to try to work business deals.

    Now, Apple has stopped selling its products even though they are smaller and more powerful and easier to hide. Microsoft has also stopped selling its products.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    It's going back to smuggling & pirating again, with the support becoming homegrown.

    More reasons why pirate parties should be bigger.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Gerard1234
    @songbird

    In the 90s, ironically it was entry point through Chechnya via black market of course, that Russia and Ukraine received most of their western computers.

    Russian authorities were actually getting quite good at cracking down on piracy of films, games etc (relative to most countries), there should hopefully be non-enforcement of these things now
  4. Singapore will unliterally add sanctions against Russia, which is surprising for the journalists.

    They are sanctions against interaction with 4 Russian banks, as well as some export controls against sending to Russia Singapore’s military equipment or dual-use technology.

    Many individual wealthy citizens of Russian, store their money in Singapore, but these sanctions will not apply to individual people. I think even people like owners of the largest military manufacturers in Russia, are often moving money through Singapore, but this would be surely the individual people.

    Position of not adding sanctions to Russia, by Western bloc countries Turkey and Israel,* is seeming more diplomatically unrealistic for them, when even Singapore and Switzerland sanction.

    * Earlier before the war, Israel holocaust museum has tried to prevent sanctions against Abramovich, because is their second largest funder (https://www.businessinsider.com/roman-abramovich-russian-oligarch-israel-holocaust-museum-ask-sanction-donor-2022-03)

    Here you can some of the multivector diplomatic strategy of the oligarchs. By donating to charities inside Western bloc, they can try to create some friendships on both sides of the new “Iron curtain”. Israel seems to be one of the “successful” places for this strategy, as they do not yet impose sanctions against Russia, neither against Russian wealthy individuals.

    Some of the top oligarchs were trying to quietly say they disagree with war, according to “Jewish Telegraph Agency’s” article about this topic.

    On Sunday, Fridman, Genesis co-founder and trustee and one of Russia’s richest people, became the first Russian oligarch to speak out against the war, calling it a “tragedy,” according to the Financial Times.

    Fridman’s statement was followed by a similar one from a second Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important! Negotiations must begin as soon as possible!” Deripaska, an outspoken Putin supporter who has been under U.S. sanctions, wrote on Telegram, according to the Financial Times.

    https://www.jta.org/2022/03/01/global/russias-jewish-oligarchs-and-their-donations-come-under-threat-of-western-sanctions-amid-ukraine-war

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important!
    Not to say that he doesn't have human considerations, (any person who is not completely corrupt, evil and stupid, is opposed to this invasion of Ukraine), but he is also particularly vulnerable to the sanctions and has in recent years made his workers protest against sanctions.

    Apparently, GAZ was very badly damaged by the sanctions against Deripaska (from the Trump administration?).

    In 2019, oligarch Deripaska made his workers produce a "music video", to protest (Trump's?) sanctions against him.

    Here Deripaska's workers' "spontaneous" 2019 anti-sanction song was based on a classic "Coolio" song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRK0mibI_Dc

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Malaysia, Bumiputera. Surprising, no.
  5. @Dmitry
    Singapore will unliterally add sanctions against Russia, which is surprising for the journalists.

    They are sanctions against interaction with 4 Russian banks, as well as some export controls against sending to Russia Singapore's military equipment or dual-use technology.

    Many individual wealthy citizens of Russian, store their money in Singapore, but these sanctions will not apply to individual people. I think even people like owners of the largest military manufacturers in Russia, are often moving money through Singapore, but this would be surely the individual people.

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1499927097489428483

    Position of not adding sanctions to Russia, by Western bloc countries Turkey and Israel,* is seeming more diplomatically unrealistic for them, when even Singapore and Switzerland sanction.


    -

    * Earlier before the war, Israel holocaust museum has tried to prevent sanctions against Abramovich, because is their second largest funder (https://www.businessinsider.com/roman-abramovich-russian-oligarch-israel-holocaust-museum-ask-sanction-donor-2022-03)

    Here you can some of the multivector diplomatic strategy of the oligarchs. By donating to charities inside Western bloc, they can try to create some friendships on both sides of the new "Iron curtain". Israel seems to be one of the "successful" places for this strategy, as they do not yet impose sanctions against Russia, neither against Russian wealthy individuals.

    Some of the top oligarchs were trying to quietly say they disagree with war, according to "Jewish Telegraph Agency's" article about this topic.

    On Sunday, Fridman, Genesis co-founder and trustee and one of Russia’s richest people, became the first Russian oligarch to speak out against the war, calling it a “tragedy,” according to the Financial Times.

    Fridman’s statement was followed by a similar one from a second Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important! Negotiations must begin as soon as possible!” Deripaska, an outspoken Putin supporter who has been under U.S. sanctions, wrote on Telegram, according to the Financial Times.
    https://www.jta.org/2022/03/01/global/russias-jewish-oligarchs-and-their-donations-come-under-threat-of-western-sanctions-amid-ukraine-war

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important!

    Not to say that he doesn’t have human considerations, (any person who is not completely corrupt, evil and stupid, is opposed to this invasion of Ukraine), but he is also particularly vulnerable to the sanctions and has in recent years made his workers protest against sanctions.

    Apparently, GAZ was very badly damaged by the sanctions against Deripaska (from the Trump administration?).

    In 2019, oligarch Deripaska made his workers produce a “music video”, to protest (Trump’s?) sanctions against him.

    Here Deripaska’s workers’ “spontaneous” 2019 anti-sanction song was based on a classic “Coolio” song.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Thulean Friend, @JL, @Dmitry
  6. @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important!
    Not to say that he doesn't have human considerations, (any person who is not completely corrupt, evil and stupid, is opposed to this invasion of Ukraine), but he is also particularly vulnerable to the sanctions and has in recent years made his workers protest against sanctions.

    Apparently, GAZ was very badly damaged by the sanctions against Deripaska (from the Trump administration?).

    In 2019, oligarch Deripaska made his workers produce a "music video", to protest (Trump's?) sanctions against him.

    Here Deripaska's workers' "spontaneous" 2019 anti-sanction song was based on a classic "Coolio" song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRK0mibI_Dc

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    33 Revolutions per Minute

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQlroADDjDQHdP21Iz8IvVEZHnfT1kXmsU6zA&usqp.jpg






    https://youtu.be/48Kk7kobMQY

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @Thulean Friend
    @Blinky Bill

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzfLgrmsuqk
    , @JL
    @Blinky Bill

    Not just a wagie, but a Russian eurocel (it's all over for you guys, so sorry). One would think after assuring us for so long that this would never happen because all of Russia's elite children study in the West, he'd own his L. Instead, he just keeps digging deeper down the hole, lashing out at people being corrupt, stupid and evil.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry
    , @Dmitry
    @Blinky Bill

    Yes they have to build the wagon, but Deripaska takes the profits. When Trump then gives sanctions on Deripaska, he makes them record "Coolio" songs about supporting the working class. It's something fallen from the mainstream timeline of history, in the stage between bourgeois capitalism and feudalism.
  7. Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly “restricted”. That won’t hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles (\$400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.

    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created ‘Erebrus’ CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia’s security agencies have tried to implement “technological sovereignty” but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:

    We all know which country he hints at.

    •�Thanks: Mr. Hack
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTCBygGOMq2bGSBcej7bFelZToGbwo-UEQ4gg&usqp.jpg



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM8JgU3XwAAWTHU.jpg

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Beckow
    @Thulean Friend

    Russia' problem - or any advanced country's for that matter - is not how to design a chip. They can do it, and so can half a dozen other places. The issue is a reliable, consistent, mass manufacturing of those chips that doesn't cost billions to set up. That is also an issue for the West, that's why the processor manufacturing is done in Asia, mostly Taiwan and China.

    In case of an embargo that can be fixed relatively quickly with China providing manufacturing. Ask yourself if it would work as easily in reverse: West vs. China. The current version of the global economy depends on peace and open borders among all major places. Once that's gone, we are all going to experience major disruptions.
    , @Not Raul
    @Thulean Friend


    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.
    Couldn’t SMIC or another fab in China make it?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    You mean "Elbrus"? These are products of MIPS Technologies which are produced in Taiwan.

    I'm not sure what will be the effect of sanctions, but these were not important products anyway.

    Overall, the effect of sanctions in Russia, can probably be exaggerated. Russia doesn't have much hi-tech industry without sanctions, so sanctions relating to "hi-tech" industry might not have not much directly to destroy or damage, except to raise prices for consumers.

    Simply, people will still be able to access AMD and Intel processors, but supply will pass through more "man in the middle" and prices will rise.

    Even Iran has access to all these Western consumer products, just in prices only the upper-middle class can afford.


    -

    "Big money" in terms of internationally competitive industries in Russia is oil, gas, copper, aluminum, diamonds, zinc, etc.

    Companies like Alrosa, Rusal, Nornickel, Severstal, Gazprom, etc dominate the world in their sectors. They are often world leaders for those industries.

    Deripaska is an example, where his wealth is not from GAZ group (automobile manufacturing), but from RUSAL (aluminium production).

    Trump's sanctions apparently throw GAZ to becoming losing industry (requiring government money), but this was never a source of "big money" anyway. His "big money" is from RUSAL.

    Russia's important industries (oil, gas, minerals, etc) might be much more resistant against sanctions.

    On the other side, a significant proportion of profits of these industries, are washed outside Russia and returned to Russia as "FDI". It's possible sanctions scared people and a lot of these past profits might not be returned, but who can say. Maybe future profits, will be less washed outside? This is probably unlikely. Maybe in 20 years, economists will write some papers.

    An oligarch like Altushkin is a British citizen, that lives most of the year in Great Britain, with all their family being British citizens living permanently in UK, but perhaps they will have more difficulty to wash profits of Russian industries into England and back into Russia again.
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/manakgupta/status/1500356124326838275?s=20&t=0WaK3dAbKNxxnUBXx8Us6w

    Replies: @Wokechoke
  8. @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Thulean Friend, @JL, @Dmitry

    33 Revolutions per Minute

    [MORE]

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Blinky Bill

    In the interview that Lex Fridman did with his dad the old guy said the most revolutionary moment @ the Breznev group was when the young people got their hands on the first black market Beatles records.
  9. @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Thulean Friend, @JL, @Dmitry

  10. @Thulean Friend
    Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly "restricted". That won't hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created 'Erebrus' CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia's security agencies have tried to implement "technological sovereignty" but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:


    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

    We all know which country he hints at.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    •�Disagree: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Blinky Bill

    https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

    China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill
  11. https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/leaked-gov-t-document-more-than-40-ukraine-territory-captured-by-russian-army-75-of-ukraine-military-destroyed
    Hal Turner shows a photo of a Ukrainian Defense Ministry internal memo dated March 4th calling a meeting to discuss situation – RU controls 40% of UKR territory, 75% of UKR armed forces out of action, Azov battalion is out of control.
    On Youtube a Texan living in Donbass since 2014 confirms conflict between UA Army and Azov battalion and reports that Ukraine forces targeted Azov HQ with a huge missile.

    •�LOL: AP
  12. S says:

    This just in. An important announcement by the BBC:

    ‘They have attacked an unarmed village with rocket bombs…and murdered 4,000 defenseless, innocent…and peaceful citizens of Oceania. This is no longer war. This is cold-blooded murder. Until now, the war has been conducted with honor…and bravery…with the ideals of truth and justice, in the best traditions of mankind…until this moment.’

    ‘Brothers and sisters…the endless catalogue of bestial atrocities…which will inevitably ensue from this appalling act…must, can, and will be terminated. The forces of darkness and treasonable maggots…who collaborate with them, must, can, and will…be wiped from the face of the earth.’

    ‘We must crush them. We must smash them. We must stamp them out. We, the people of Oceania…..will not rest until a final victory has been achieved. Death to the eternal enemy of Oceania. Death!’

    ‘Brothers and sisters…one week from now…in this very square…we shall, as a demonstration of our resolve…as a sure sign to those who attempt to threaten…our Party and our State…we shall execute publicly…the same number of Eastasian prisoners…by hanging, drawing and quartering…B, B, B…’

    Naaah! Just kidding. It’s from the movie script to Michael Radford’s 1984.

    Relatedly, Sky news has released a video on YouTube of their reporters being ‘expertly ambushed’ in Ukraine, with all surviving. While no doubt some very bad things are taking place in Ukraine, on the particulars, as some of the commenters of the video have noted, the MSM has lied so much, how is one to know now how much is truth, and how much is simply more lies. Even should they be wanting to tell the truth on any given subject, it is difficult to believe them.

    Of course, with a healthy skepticism, a person should do their own reading, and draw their own conclusions.

    https://www.scripts.com/script.php?id=1984_1596&p=12

    •�Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @S

    The Sky News reporter who pretended to be wounded in Ukr yesterday is well-known in Romania. He paid three poor losers in some Romanian village to claim their are gun traffickers. The morons found a disabled shotgun, put on balaklavas and played their required roles. The stooges and the reporter have been accused of breaking the regulations re. weapon safety. The Brit refused to show up for the inquiry, so he had a warrant on his head.

    It's been six years, so he's off the hook now. Anyway, a bunch of CIA-sponsored Romanian publications told us poor Ramsey got wounded yesterday, at which point comments sections got flooded with "did he break weapons safety rules again?" and plenty of accusations he's making stuff up.

    Replies: @A123
  13. Morgenthau 2.0 incoming, self inflict.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @Joe Paluka
    @nickels

    If Russia cuts off gas supplies to Germany, it's back to making Hitler gas from coal for them.
  14. @Dmitry
    Singapore will unliterally add sanctions against Russia, which is surprising for the journalists.

    They are sanctions against interaction with 4 Russian banks, as well as some export controls against sending to Russia Singapore's military equipment or dual-use technology.

    Many individual wealthy citizens of Russian, store their money in Singapore, but these sanctions will not apply to individual people. I think even people like owners of the largest military manufacturers in Russia, are often moving money through Singapore, but this would be surely the individual people.

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1499927097489428483

    Position of not adding sanctions to Russia, by Western bloc countries Turkey and Israel,* is seeming more diplomatically unrealistic for them, when even Singapore and Switzerland sanction.


    -

    * Earlier before the war, Israel holocaust museum has tried to prevent sanctions against Abramovich, because is their second largest funder (https://www.businessinsider.com/roman-abramovich-russian-oligarch-israel-holocaust-museum-ask-sanction-donor-2022-03)

    Here you can some of the multivector diplomatic strategy of the oligarchs. By donating to charities inside Western bloc, they can try to create some friendships on both sides of the new "Iron curtain". Israel seems to be one of the "successful" places for this strategy, as they do not yet impose sanctions against Russia, neither against Russian wealthy individuals.

    Some of the top oligarchs were trying to quietly say they disagree with war, according to "Jewish Telegraph Agency's" article about this topic.

    On Sunday, Fridman, Genesis co-founder and trustee and one of Russia’s richest people, became the first Russian oligarch to speak out against the war, calling it a “tragedy,” according to the Financial Times.

    Fridman’s statement was followed by a similar one from a second Jewish oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. “Peace is very important! Negotiations must begin as soon as possible!” Deripaska, an outspoken Putin supporter who has been under U.S. sanctions, wrote on Telegram, according to the Financial Times.
    https://www.jta.org/2022/03/01/global/russias-jewish-oligarchs-and-their-donations-come-under-threat-of-western-sanctions-amid-ukraine-war

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    Malaysia, Bumiputera. Surprising, no.

  15. @songbird
    Interesting how we are seeing an inversion of past narratives in the IT field.

    In the '80s, Steve Jobs was arguing in favor of lifting the export ban on computers for Russia, saying that each computer was a revolutionary tool that could help spread freedom. Back then, technology within Russia was tightly controlled, at least in theory, and xerox machines were kept behind locked doors, with some level of political supervision, so being able to hook-up a printer to a computer was a big deal. Western businesses, everyone and their brother, were smuggling computers into Russia, to use them as sweeteners to try to work business deals.

    Now, Apple has stopped selling its products even though they are smaller and more powerful and easier to hide. Microsoft has also stopped selling its products.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Gerard1234

    It’s going back to smuggling & pirating again, with the support becoming homegrown.

    More reasons why pirate parties should be bigger.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCUaJiWQAIULD3.jpg

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

    Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 - WEF says so.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Blinky Bill
  16. @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTCBygGOMq2bGSBcej7bFelZToGbwo-UEQ4gg&usqp.jpg



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM8JgU3XwAAWTHU.jpg

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

    China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Yellowface Anon


    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQlEqPXE8i4N8ToBdKExSFQrjvx9zC4loSuzg&usqp.jpg
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Yellowface Anon


    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQm2DJ9xlacShwLmFJYSam245lJ8RX63Djlyw&usq.jpg
  17. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    It's going back to smuggling & pirating again, with the support becoming homegrown.

    More reasons why pirate parties should be bigger.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

    Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 – WEF says so.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @Yellowface Anon


    Companies that have fled the Russia market:
    ...
    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter

    Russia + Ukraine cannot feed China. While Russia will win in Ukraine, the next planting season will be poor (at best). Ukrainian farmers cannot afford fertilizer. And, there is no way to transport into the war zone even if they could.

    Will CCP Elites really cut themselves off from global food markets to go after a Russian market of only ~200 MM people?
    ___

    SJW Globalists have intentionally ratcheted up hydrocarbon energy prices to push green mythology. This is obvious every time one fills up at the gas station.

    What is less the obvious is the flow: Energy ➔ Agriculture

    A plunge in production & surge in food prices started long before the fight in Ukraine: (1)

    [Fake Stream Media] Catching On, Now They Call It Food Protectionism as Hungary, Argentina, Moldova and Turkey Ban Grain Exports

    Last year, CTH was one of a small number of people talking about the very real possibility of food shortages due to the cumulative effects from regulatory COVID mitigation and the fracturing of the food supply chain that government intervention created

    The current grain issues are an outcome of a major supply chain disruption on the manufactured and processed food side, which is now exacerbated by higher replenishment costs and lower yields. Fertilizer costs have skyrocketed due to energy cost increases.

    It is a perfect storm.

    Without the Ukraine crisis surfacing, the grain (wheat, corn, soybean) and supply chain issues were already going to be a problem, and many of these current mitigation efforts -wrongly being attributed to Ukraine- would have taken placed without any regional conflict. That’s why we predicted these issues last year, long before Ukraine-Russia was in the headlines.

    I have called Xi many things, notably "stupid" is *not* one of them. He sees the food crisis that is going to arrive in a matter of months. The CCP will stay engaged in global food markets in order to feed China's people.

    To buy food, the CCP will remain plugged into global financial markets. That means they must participate in sanctions. Poor enforcement and smuggling will of course occur, but massive new commercial ventures in Russia will be blocked for years.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/04/msm-catching-on-now-they-call-it-food-protectionism-as-hungary-argentina-moldova-and-turkey-ban-grain-exports/
    , @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    Karlin would indicate that this is a positive development, forcing Russia to become more self reliant. The future looks bright for smart guys like him, with many opportunities to fill leadership positions within the Russian tech industry (finally a way for him to totally exit the blogging business, with its strange hours and up and down paychecks).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Yellowface Anon


    https://twitter.com/kushal_mehra/status/1500408409065095170?s=20&t=0WaK3dAbKNxxnUBXx8Us6w
  18. Guess that qualifies as indirect threat to kill, just after Lindsey Graham?:

    In a phone call Thursday with golfer John Daly, former President Donald Trump talked about nuclear weapons and threats he says he made to Russian President Vladimir Putin

    “They’re all saying, ‘Oh he’s a nuclear power,’” Trump said of Putin on the call, which Daly put on speaker phone at the at the Hoag Classic tournament in California. “It’s like they’re afraid of him.”

    A bystander filmed Daly, who took the call while enjoying food and drinks inside the Newport Beach Country Club.

    “You know, he was a friend of mine,” Trump continued. “I got along great with him. I say, ‘Vladimir, if you do it, we’re hitting Moscow. I said, ‘We’re gonna hit Moscow.’”

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/trump-told-golfer-john-daly-221602140.html

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death

    It's nuclear retaliation, which Putin definitely should have known the US will do.

    Replies: @sudden death
  19. JL says:
    @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Thulean Friend, @JL, @Dmitry

    Not just a wagie, but a Russian eurocel (it’s all over for you guys, so sorry). One would think after assuring us for so long that this would never happen because all of Russia’s elite children study in the West, he’d own his L. Instead, he just keeps digging deeper down the hole, lashing out at people being corrupt, stupid and evil.

    •�Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @JL


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNC4Qx7XsAEyM15.jpg

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Dmitry
    @JL

    Are you writing about Deripaska's factory workers or myself?

    I don't think I'm interesting to discuss, but for whatever reasons (pessimistic instincts about politics) I have been "prepping" for a decade from such kind of situation.

    Being a "prepper" is somewhere halfway between cowardice and wisdom.

    If you want to feel sorry for someone, feel sorry for likely ten thousand people killed in Ukraine already, refugees from Ukraine who will soon be millions, people who will lose their family, never see friends again, young people never enjoy life again, etc.

    eurocel (it’s all over for you guys, so sorry).

    I have to google these words, as I'm not 13 years old. But I remember discussing with you when you said that inflation was not a problem, even without the geopolitical contribution. You still didn't reply to the last comment when I was discussing about rising inflation.
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/based-putler/#comment-3249440 That said, people complaining about inflation while living in a safe country sounds a bit selfish and trivial in context of war.

    of Russia’s elite
    Yes, some people I know are trying to arrange to help fund for refugees, it seems like most people are not slave to demons of corruption and nihilism, even if a lot of original source of wealth had been ultimately derived with their assistance.
  20. @Yellowface Anon
    @Blinky Bill

    https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

    China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    •�Troll: Yellowface Anon
  21. @sudden death
    Guess that qualifies as indirect threat to kill, just after Lindsey Graham?:

    In a phone call Thursday with golfer John Daly, former President Donald Trump talked about nuclear weapons and threats he says he made to Russian President Vladimir Putin

    "They're all saying, 'Oh he's a nuclear power,'" Trump said of Putin on the call, which Daly put on speaker phone at the at the Hoag Classic tournament in California. "It's like they're afraid of him."

    A bystander filmed Daly, who took the call while enjoying food and drinks inside the Newport Beach Country Club.

    "You know, he was a friend of mine," Trump continued. "I got along great with him. I say, 'Vladimir, if you do it, we're hitting Moscow. I said, 'We're gonna hit Moscow.'"
    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/trump-told-golfer-john-daly-221602140.html

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It’s nuclear retaliation, which Putin definitely should have known the US will do.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Yellowface Anon

    Trump is unreliable chickenhawk who will three times both deny and confirm this story at six different places, just the timing is interesting. All you need to know about real Trump is his (in)actions, not the words - was not even able to hit non nuclear Tehran in conventional retaliatory strike when his own troops and bases were hit.

    Replies: @A123, @AP
  22. @JL
    @Blinky Bill

    Not just a wagie, but a Russian eurocel (it's all over for you guys, so sorry). One would think after assuring us for so long that this would never happen because all of Russia's elite children study in the West, he'd own his L. Instead, he just keeps digging deeper down the hole, lashing out at people being corrupt, stupid and evil.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry

    [MORE]

    •�LOL: Brás Cubas, Voltarde
    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Blinky Bill

    Do you think Russian life expectancy will shoot up? There will still be alcoholization.

    This is actually what I wanted to add after I can't edit the comment on businesses quitting. But they will still have homegrown, Chinese and Indian alternatives that are as decadent.
  23. @Yellowface Anon
    @Blinky Bill

    https://fortune.com/2022/02/22/india-chip-shortage-semiconductor-manufacturing-crisis-design-solution-rakesh-kumar/

    China will help out after they take over TSMC. Will be a great irony when it embargos the West in turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  24. @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death

    It's nuclear retaliation, which Putin definitely should have known the US will do.

    Replies: @sudden death

    Trump is unreliable chickenhawk who will three times both deny and confirm this story at six different places, just the timing is interesting. All you need to know about real Trump is his (in)actions, not the words – was not even able to hit non nuclear Tehran in conventional retaliatory strike when his own troops and bases were hit.

    •�Agree: Yellowface Anon
    •�LOL: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @sudden death

    What is the real reason you hurl out a pejorative term like "chicken hawk" about Trump's successful Khamenei containment policy?


    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/presidentswars-600x312.jpg


    Trump's refusal to be lured in an Iran war is why you are upset. Thanks for admitting you are #NeverTrump warmonger.

    Sadly, you may get your war after all. Not-The-President Biden's attempt to appease sociopath Khamenei is likely produce a blood bath. (1)

    the reaction from US-friendly UAE, under attack from Iranian proxies, at the UN Security Council; from US-friendly Saudi Arabia, under attack from Iranian proxies, via an interview with its de facto ruler Prince MBS in The Atlantic where he threatens to stop investment in the US and do more in China (Does Joe Biden misunderstand something about him? “Simply, I do not care,” MBS replied. “It’s up to him to think about the interests of America.” He gave a shrug. “Go for it.”); and from US ally Israel, under attack from Iranian proxies, which states it will ignore any deal and act as needed.
    ...
    a new nuclear deal is more likely to *lead* to war and see oil soar to new record highs.

    How many people have to die needlessly before you stop lying about Trump's record?

    PEACE 😇
    ______________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/total-disaster-why-iran-nuclear-deal-will-spark-brand-new-geopolitical-crisis

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @AP
    @sudden death

    He killed the Iranian general though.

    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.

    Trump was the first to provide weapons to Ukraine; Obama had refused to do so. Trump stopped Nordstream. Trump correctly called out Germany for becoming reliant on Russian gas and for not having a military. This idea of Trump being a Russian puppet is rather bizarre and probably the work of Russia.

    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    OTOH if the crisis had happened, Ukraine might have been in more trouble, due to the fact that Trump triggered the Western Europeans and has not been a very good diplomat. The Western Europeans might not have come onboard as resolutely as they have done with Biden (or his handlers) in charge of the USA.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123
  25. @Blinky Bill
    @JL


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNC4Qx7XsAEyM15.jpg

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Do you think Russian life expectancy will shoot up? There will still be alcoholization.

    This is actually what I wanted to add after I can’t edit the comment on businesses quitting. But they will still have homegrown, Chinese and Indian alternatives that are as decadent.

  26. A123 says: •�Website
    @sudden death
    @Yellowface Anon

    Trump is unreliable chickenhawk who will three times both deny and confirm this story at six different places, just the timing is interesting. All you need to know about real Trump is his (in)actions, not the words - was not even able to hit non nuclear Tehran in conventional retaliatory strike when his own troops and bases were hit.

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    What is the real reason you hurl out a pejorative term like “chicken hawk” about Trump’s successful Khamenei containment policy?



    Trump’s refusal to be lured in an Iran war is why you are upset. Thanks for admitting you are #NeverTrump warmonger.

    Sadly, you may get your war after all. Not-The-President Biden’s attempt to appease sociopath Khamenei is likely produce a blood bath. (1)

    the reaction from US-friendly UAE, under attack from Iranian proxies, at the UN Security Council; from US-friendly Saudi Arabia, under attack from Iranian proxies, via an interview with its de facto ruler Prince MBS in The Atlantic where he threatens to stop investment in the US and do more in China (Does Joe Biden misunderstand something about him? “Simply, I do not care,” MBS replied. “It’s up to him to think about the interests of America.” He gave a shrug. “Go for it.”); and from US ally Israel, under attack from Iranian proxies, which states it will ignore any deal and act as needed.

    a new nuclear deal is more likely to *lead* to war and see oil soar to new record highs.

    How many people have to die needlessly before you stop lying about Trump’s record?

    PEACE 😇
    ______________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/total-disaster-why-iran-nuclear-deal-will-spark-brand-new-geopolitical-crisis

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @A123

    In hindsight that Iranian attack as fair exchange (I forget the exact label) for the hero-general-assassination might have been the best (maybe the only) excellent maneuver the president kayfabe guy did. For sure it is the only one I can think of offhand.

    Replies: @A123
  27. Aedib says:

    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin. That’s because the Western propaganda that claims “We hate Putin but we love Russians” crash against these events. The Western rage has played out in the siloviky hands.

    On the other hand, I think that Ukrainian forces near Donetsk and Gorlovka should start a strategic retreat toward the Kharkov-Dnipro line. Otherwise they will we trapped in a kettle. The Ukrainian forces should use their remaining mobility resources. Otherwise, the cauldron that Saker claims is closed (it is not) will start to close.

    •�Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Aedib

    I can get conspiratorial about this and claim much of the general decoupling is premediated between Putin & the West. Basically, Putin gets his empire and isolationism, while the West gets the high energy price to avoid economy recovery from COVID and assets from Russia. The common enemy is the common folk. Ukraine is abandoned by both sides, only getting token help from NATO, and China will lose later on by association with Putin.

    Replies: @Aedib
    , @German_reader
    @Aedib


    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin.
    Kristallnacht events?
    The only thing I've noticed so far in Germany is some Russian conductor being fired from the Munich (?) opera, because he didn't want to condemn Putin. And some restaurant hanging up a sign they don't serve Russian guests (which was promptly criticized). But it's not like there are general attacks, let alone physical assaults on anybody from Russia (let alone people being killed or dragged into concentration camps, which was what happened during Kristallnacht).

    Replies: @Aedib
  28. A123 says: •�Website
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCUaJiWQAIULD3.jpg

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

    Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 - WEF says so.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Blinky Bill

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter

    Russia + Ukraine cannot feed China. While Russia will win in Ukraine, the next planting season will be poor (at best). Ukrainian farmers cannot afford fertilizer. And, there is no way to transport into the war zone even if they could.

    Will CCP Elites really cut themselves off from global food markets to go after a Russian market of only ~200 MM people?
    ___

    SJW Globalists have intentionally ratcheted up hydrocarbon energy prices to push green mythology. This is obvious every time one fills up at the gas station.

    What is less the obvious is the flow: Energy ➔ Agriculture

    A plunge in production & surge in food prices started long before the fight in Ukraine: (1)

    [Fake Stream Media] Catching On, Now They Call It Food Protectionism as Hungary, Argentina, Moldova and Turkey Ban Grain Exports

    Last year, CTH was one of a small number of people talking about the very real possibility of food shortages due to the cumulative effects from regulatory COVID mitigation and the fracturing of the food supply chain that government intervention created

    The current grain issues are an outcome of a major supply chain disruption on the manufactured and processed food side, which is now exacerbated by higher replenishment costs and lower yields. Fertilizer costs have skyrocketed due to energy cost increases.

    It is a perfect storm.

    Without the Ukraine crisis surfacing, the grain (wheat, corn, soybean) and supply chain issues were already going to be a problem, and many of these current mitigation efforts -wrongly being attributed to Ukraine- would have taken placed without any regional conflict. That’s why we predicted these issues last year, long before Ukraine-Russia was in the headlines.

    I have called Xi many things, notably “stupid” is *not* one of them. He sees the food crisis that is going to arrive in a matter of months. The CCP will stay engaged in global food markets in order to feed China’s people.

    To buy food, the CCP will remain plugged into global financial markets. That means they must participate in sanctions. Poor enforcement and smuggling will of course occur, but massive new commercial ventures in Russia will be blocked for years.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/04/msm-catching-on-now-they-call-it-food-protectionism-as-hungary-argentina-moldova-and-turkey-ban-grain-exports/

  29. @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    33 Revolutions per Minute

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQlroADDjDQHdP21Iz8IvVEZHnfT1kXmsU6zA&usqp.jpg






    https://youtu.be/48Kk7kobMQY

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    In the interview that Lex Fridman did with his dad the old guy said the most revolutionary moment @ the Breznev group was when the young people got their hands on the first black market Beatles records.

    •�Thanks: Blinky Bill
  30. @Aedib
    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin. That’s because the Western propaganda that claims “We hate Putin but we love Russians” crash against these events. The Western rage has played out in the siloviky hands.

    On the other hand, I think that Ukrainian forces near Donetsk and Gorlovka should start a strategic retreat toward the Kharkov-Dnipro line. Otherwise they will we trapped in a kettle. The Ukrainian forces should use their remaining mobility resources. Otherwise, the cauldron that Saker claims is closed (it is not) will start to close.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader

    I can get conspiratorial about this and claim much of the general decoupling is premediated between Putin & the West. Basically, Putin gets his empire and isolationism, while the West gets the high energy price to avoid economy recovery from COVID and assets from Russia. The common enemy is the common folk. Ukraine is abandoned by both sides, only getting token help from NATO, and China will lose later on by association with Putin.

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @Yellowface Anon

    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123
  31. @A123
    @sudden death

    What is the real reason you hurl out a pejorative term like "chicken hawk" about Trump's successful Khamenei containment policy?


    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/presidentswars-600x312.jpg


    Trump's refusal to be lured in an Iran war is why you are upset. Thanks for admitting you are #NeverTrump warmonger.

    Sadly, you may get your war after all. Not-The-President Biden's attempt to appease sociopath Khamenei is likely produce a blood bath. (1)

    the reaction from US-friendly UAE, under attack from Iranian proxies, at the UN Security Council; from US-friendly Saudi Arabia, under attack from Iranian proxies, via an interview with its de facto ruler Prince MBS in The Atlantic where he threatens to stop investment in the US and do more in China (Does Joe Biden misunderstand something about him? “Simply, I do not care,” MBS replied. “It’s up to him to think about the interests of America.” He gave a shrug. “Go for it.”); and from US ally Israel, under attack from Iranian proxies, which states it will ignore any deal and act as needed.
    ...
    a new nuclear deal is more likely to *lead* to war and see oil soar to new record highs.

    How many people have to die needlessly before you stop lying about Trump's record?

    PEACE 😇
    ______________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/total-disaster-why-iran-nuclear-deal-will-spark-brand-new-geopolitical-crisis

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    In hindsight that Iranian attack as fair exchange (I forget the exact label) for the hero-general-assassination might have been the best (maybe the only) excellent maneuver the president kayfabe guy did. For sure it is the only one I can think of offhand.

    •�Thanks: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    excellent maneuver the president kayfabe guy did
    You have a typo. The word you should have used is covfefe: (1)

    Covfefe’ (pronounced “cuv – fee- fae”) is an Antediluvian term for “In the end we win.” It was commonly used by the sons of Adam to rail against the evil actions of the fallen who had led man astray.
    What you wanted to post is, "excellent maneuver the covfefe President did".

    No worries. Autocorrect manages to damage what I write too.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com/2017/05/31/cuvfefe-mystery-solved/
  32. @Yellowface Anon
    @Aedib

    I can get conspiratorial about this and claim much of the general decoupling is premediated between Putin & the West. Basically, Putin gets his empire and isolationism, while the West gets the high energy price to avoid economy recovery from COVID and assets from Russia. The common enemy is the common folk. Ukraine is abandoned by both sides, only getting token help from NATO, and China will lose later on by association with Putin.

    Replies: @Aedib

    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Aedib

    The conspiratorial view of this is pretty much "Hitler is a British agent" tier sh*tposting.
    , @A123
    @Aedib


    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.
    Both U.S. workers and Chinese workers can simultaneously win if decoupling takes place over a decade or longer:

    -- MAGA Reindustrialization will result in Americans making things for American workers. Concepts like "Carbon Footprint" will go in the dustbin of history along with Fauci and his masks.
    -- A shift away from excessive exporting will result in more China made goods winding up in the hands & homes of Chinese workers.

    European Davos WEF Elites and IslamoGloboHomo will be the big losers. Their idea of UN/NWO consolidation under a single global currency is falling apart. One need not look further than the dysfunctional EuroZone to see their dystopian dreams dying.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Justvisiting
  33. @Aedib
    @Yellowface Anon

    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    The conspiratorial view of this is pretty much “Hitler is a British agent” tier sh*tposting.

  34. A123 says: •�Website
    @Emil Nikola Richard
    @A123

    In hindsight that Iranian attack as fair exchange (I forget the exact label) for the hero-general-assassination might have been the best (maybe the only) excellent maneuver the president kayfabe guy did. For sure it is the only one I can think of offhand.

    Replies: @A123

    excellent maneuver the president kayfabe guy did

    You have a typo. The word you should have used is covfefe: (1)

    Covfefe’ (pronounced “cuv – fee- fae”) is an Antediluvian term for “In the end we win.” It was commonly used by the sons of Adam to rail against the evil actions of the fallen who had led man astray.

    What you wanted to post is, “excellent maneuver the covfefe President did”.

    No worries. Autocorrect manages to damage what I write too.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com/2017/05/31/cuvfefe-mystery-solved/

  35. AP says:
    @sudden death
    @Yellowface Anon

    Trump is unreliable chickenhawk who will three times both deny and confirm this story at six different places, just the timing is interesting. All you need to know about real Trump is his (in)actions, not the words - was not even able to hit non nuclear Tehran in conventional retaliatory strike when his own troops and bases were hit.

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    He killed the Iranian general though.

    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.

    Trump was the first to provide weapons to Ukraine; Obama had refused to do so. Trump stopped Nordstream. Trump correctly called out Germany for becoming reliant on Russian gas and for not having a military. This idea of Trump being a Russian puppet is rather bizarre and probably the work of Russia.

    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    OTOH if the crisis had happened, Ukraine might have been in more trouble, due to the fact that Trump triggered the Western Europeans and has not been a very good diplomat. The Western Europeans might not have come onboard as resolutely as they have done with Biden (or his handlers) in charge of the USA.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    So what do you think of his latest assessment of the Ukrainian/Russian war, where he characterises Putin as being a "genius" for what he's managed to do within Ukraine? Take a look at this article before replying: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-graham/index.html

    Replies: @AP
    , @A123
    @AP


    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.
    ..
    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    Putin & Trump had respect for each other. Despite sending arms to Ukraine, Putin knew that attempts to join NATO were going nowhere. Trump refused to be lured into a war in Itan. There was virtually 0% chance of a Trump war in Ukraine. The pressure on Putin was thus, at most, symbolic. There certainly was no provocation.

    Jump forward to the current occupied White House (1)

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted angrily after President Biden agreed in an interview that the Kremlin leader was "a killer."

    "It takes one to know one," Putin said on national television, adding that the children's taunt had a "very deep meaning." People often see themselves reflected in others, Putin said, suggesting that Biden was projecting on him American guilt for slavery and the treatment of Native Americans.

    Biden's off-hand comment in an interview Wednesday with ABC News has ended months of tight-lipped anticipation in Moscow about where relations might head under the new administration. Hopes were not particularly high for the relationship, which Putin said in November was so spoiled that it couldn't be spoiled any more.
    Lack of respect and mental instability are very bad characteristics for any "leader".
    _____

    I think we arrived where we are today because of a string of lose talk and terrible mistakes in communication.

    Is Putin "Justified"? No.
    Can one objectively understand why Putin felt "Badly Pressured"? Yes.

    The various logistics columns are building up supplies for the use of overwhelming force. Putin will not be baited into large scale urban combat. The best option to protect his troops is use of artillery to flatten large sections of urban buildings. Neither side in the fight wants to see Ukrainian mass casualties & cities destroyed

    I still hope that Zelensky and Putin can bypass the U.S. State Department and come to a deal. While I do not like Macron, he is a credible intermediary who can commit to rapidly revoking European sanctions. Macron, Zelensky, and Putin can share a Nobel Peace Prize if that is what it takes to stop this.

    There is still time to step back from the brink of a LOSE-LOSE situation.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.npr.org/2021/03/18/978751414/it-takes-one-to-know-one-putin-says-after-biden-agrees-that-putin-is-a-killer
  36. @S
    This just in. An important announcement by the BBC:


    https://images.dailyhive.com/20170310213407/Screen-Shot-2017-03-10-at-9.32.11-PM.png

    'They have attacked an unarmed village with rocket bombs...and murdered 4,000 defenseless, innocent...and peaceful citizens of Oceania. This is no longer war. This is cold-blooded murder. Until now, the war has been conducted with honor...and bravery...with the ideals of truth and justice, in the best traditions of mankind...until this moment.'

    'Brothers and sisters...the endless catalogue of bestial atrocities...which will inevitably ensue from this appalling act...must, can, and will be terminated. The forces of darkness and treasonable maggots...who collaborate with them, must, can, and will...be wiped from the face of the earth.'

    'We must crush them. We must smash them. We must stamp them out. We, the people of Oceania.....will not rest until a final victory has been achieved. Death to the eternal enemy of Oceania. Death!'

    'Brothers and sisters...one week from now...in this very square...we shall, as a demonstration of our resolve...as a sure sign to those who attempt to threaten...our Party and our State...we shall execute publicly...the same number of Eastasian prisoners...by hanging, drawing and quartering...B, B, B...'
    Naaah! Just kidding. It's from the movie script to Michael Radford's 1984.

    Relatedly, Sky news has released a video on YouTube of their reporters being 'expertly ambushed' in Ukraine, with all surviving. While no doubt some very bad things are taking place in Ukraine, on the particulars, as some of the commenters of the video have noted, the MSM has lied so much, how is one to know now how much is truth, and how much is simply more lies. Even should they be wanting to tell the truth on any given subject, it is difficult to believe them.

    Of course, with a healthy skepticism, a person should do their own reading, and draw their own conclusions.

    https://www.scripts.com/script.php?id=1984_1596&p=12

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    The Sky News reporter who pretended to be wounded in Ukr yesterday is well-known in Romania. He paid three poor losers in some Romanian village to claim their are gun traffickers. The morons found a disabled shotgun, put on balaklavas and played their required roles. The stooges and the reporter have been accused of breaking the regulations re. weapon safety. The Brit refused to show up for the inquiry, so he had a warrant on his head.

    It’s been six years, so he’s off the hook now. Anyway, a bunch of CIA-sponsored Romanian publications told us poor Ramsey got wounded yesterday, at which point comments sections got flooded with “did he break weapons safety rules again?” and plenty of accusations he’s making stuff up.

    •�Thanks: S
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    Ramsey got wounded yesterday, at which point comments sections got flooded with “did he break weapons safety rules again?” and plenty of accusations he’s making stuff up.
    Breaking news. One of Ramsey's accomplices has been identified.


    https://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2022/03/image015.png

    PEACE 😇
  37. A123 says: •�Website
    @Aedib
    @Yellowface Anon

    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.

    Both U.S. workers and Chinese workers can simultaneously win if decoupling takes place over a decade or longer:

    — MAGA Reindustrialization will result in Americans making things for American workers. Concepts like “Carbon Footprint” will go in the dustbin of history along with Fauci and his masks.
    — A shift away from excessive exporting will result in more China made goods winding up in the hands & homes of Chinese workers.

    European Davos WEF Elites and IslamoGloboHomo will be the big losers. Their idea of UN/NWO consolidation under a single global currency is falling apart. One need not look further than the dysfunctional EuroZone to see their dystopian dreams dying.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Agree: Aedib
    •�Replies: @Justvisiting
    @A123


    One need not look further than the dysfunctional EuroZone to see their dystopian dreams dying.
    It is now the globalists Plan B that worries me--a digital currency for what will be the slave states of the US and Western Europe.

    Our propaganda and cancel culture is beginning to imitate North Korea.
  38. A123 says: •�Website
    @Dacian Julien Soros
    @S

    The Sky News reporter who pretended to be wounded in Ukr yesterday is well-known in Romania. He paid three poor losers in some Romanian village to claim their are gun traffickers. The morons found a disabled shotgun, put on balaklavas and played their required roles. The stooges and the reporter have been accused of breaking the regulations re. weapon safety. The Brit refused to show up for the inquiry, so he had a warrant on his head.

    It's been six years, so he's off the hook now. Anyway, a bunch of CIA-sponsored Romanian publications told us poor Ramsey got wounded yesterday, at which point comments sections got flooded with "did he break weapons safety rules again?" and plenty of accusations he's making stuff up.

    Replies: @A123

    Ramsey got wounded yesterday, at which point comments sections got flooded with “did he break weapons safety rules again?” and plenty of accusations he’s making stuff up.

    Breaking news. One of Ramsey’s accomplices has been identified.

    PEACE 😇

  39. @A123
    @Aedib


    May be, but I think China is and will be the big winner. They laugh on these “let reduce the carbon print” globohomo issues and, in addition, the will get energy resources at discount prices from Russia.
    Both U.S. workers and Chinese workers can simultaneously win if decoupling takes place over a decade or longer:

    -- MAGA Reindustrialization will result in Americans making things for American workers. Concepts like "Carbon Footprint" will go in the dustbin of history along with Fauci and his masks.
    -- A shift away from excessive exporting will result in more China made goods winding up in the hands & homes of Chinese workers.

    European Davos WEF Elites and IslamoGloboHomo will be the big losers. Their idea of UN/NWO consolidation under a single global currency is falling apart. One need not look further than the dysfunctional EuroZone to see their dystopian dreams dying.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Justvisiting

    One need not look further than the dysfunctional EuroZone to see their dystopian dreams dying.

    It is now the globalists Plan B that worries me–a digital currency for what will be the slave states of the US and Western Europe.

    Our propaganda and cancel culture is beginning to imitate North Korea.

  40. @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCUaJiWQAIULD3.jpg

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

    Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 - WEF says so.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Blinky Bill

    Karlin would indicate that this is a positive development, forcing Russia to become more self reliant. The future looks bright for smart guys like him, with many opportunities to fill leadership positions within the Russian tech industry (finally a way for him to totally exit the blogging business, with its strange hours and up and down paychecks).

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    Perhaps whatever business he starts will outlast the ones that just quit Russia - Westerners might start shifting away from many of the brands in the list for some other Cultural War cause, new economic needs or plain changing taste. Services and consumer electronics, especially. Might be ironic revenge.

    Can Russians reactivate their accounts once emigrated? Or everything affecting Russian nationals instead of consumers in Russia?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  41. @AP
    @sudden death

    He killed the Iranian general though.

    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.

    Trump was the first to provide weapons to Ukraine; Obama had refused to do so. Trump stopped Nordstream. Trump correctly called out Germany for becoming reliant on Russian gas and for not having a military. This idea of Trump being a Russian puppet is rather bizarre and probably the work of Russia.

    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    OTOH if the crisis had happened, Ukraine might have been in more trouble, due to the fact that Trump triggered the Western Europeans and has not been a very good diplomat. The Western Europeans might not have come onboard as resolutely as they have done with Biden (or his handlers) in charge of the USA.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123

    So what do you think of his latest assessment of the Ukrainian/Russian war, where he characterises Putin as being a “genius” for what he’s managed to do within Ukraine? Take a look at this article before replying: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-graham/index.html

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump was simply accused of calling Putin a genius or smart. Well, until he stupidly tried to take all of Ukraine things were working out well for Putin. Had Hitler stopped after Czechoslovakia he, too, would have been considered a genius as a leader.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  42. Mikhail says: •�Website

    Ukrainian Views – Russia Bashing Israel Supporters – Kiev Regime Military – BBC Busted – Fact Checks

    Familiar?

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500052493765681152

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500014952593207297

    Talk about double standards –

    Re: https://www.unz.com/article/russia-ukraine-2-the-world-order-has-changed/

    Excerpt –

    The long column that so obsessed the “experts” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)

    Oops –

    https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1500014251800502272

    Disgusting if true –

    https://www.rt.com/russia/551306-ukraine-negotiator-reported-killed/

    Maybe not 120,000 Greeks in that area, while the gist being true –

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Mikhail

    A decent person would have placed all of those twitter images under a more tag so that the thread won't take forever to load once the number of posts increases.

    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird
    , @A123
    @Mikhail

    Mikhail,

    Please limit yourself to ONE tweet above the [MORE] tag per Mr. Unz guidance. (1)

    the large volume of Tweets and other embedded material has led to complaints of sluggishness, so I’m opening this new thread.

    In order to minimize such problems in the future, it’s probably a good idea to use the MORE tag to hide all but the first Tweet in your comments and otherwise show proper consideration for your fellow commenters
    As to the accusation about the BBC. They are an anti-Israel, pro-terror extension of Pallywood: (2)

    The BBC recently glorified a woman who murdered eight children. By providing unrepentant terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, notorious for her role in the 2001 Sbarro restaurant suicide bombing in Jerusalem, with a massive platform, the news outlet showed its true colors when it comes to coverage of the Jewish state. Will the BBC’s anti-Israel bias finally be exposed?
    Odds are the "How to attack Russian viehckes" poster is derived from a prior BBC "How to attack Israel military vehicles". It is very sad that UK citizens are compelled to pay for anti-Semitic media like the Beeb.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/

    (2) https://honestreporting.com/bbc-slammed-for-glorifying-palestinian-terrorist/

    Replies: @Mikhail, @silviosilver
  43. @Mikhail
    Ukrainian Views - Russia Bashing Israel Supporters - Kiev Regime Military - BBC Busted - Fact Checks

    https://twitter.com/futurebrain1/status/1498738347518353410

    Familiar?

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500052493765681152

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500014952593207297

    Talk about double standards -

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1499875071522918406

    Re: https://www.unz.com/article/russia-ukraine-2-the-world-order-has-changed/

    Excerpt -

    The long column that so obsessed the “experts” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)
    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500029916896579585

    Oops -

    https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1500014251800502272

    Disgusting if true -

    https://twitter.com/BlankName5000/status/1500109366833430531

    https://www.rt.com/russia/551306-ukraine-negotiator-reported-killed/

    Maybe not 120,000 Greeks in that area, while the gist being true -

    https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1500033984444923904

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    A decent person would have placed all of those twitter images under a more tag so that the thread won’t take forever to load once the number of posts increases.

    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP

    The format is good ("decent") enough. I concur with your other point, while noting that the gist can very well be true.
    , @songbird
    @AP


    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.
    What do you have against Greeks?

    I have known many, and only one had a horrible smell, but rather like you were having bars of soap shoved up your nose, than anything else.

    Replies: @AP
  44. @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    So what do you think of his latest assessment of the Ukrainian/Russian war, where he characterises Putin as being a "genius" for what he's managed to do within Ukraine? Take a look at this article before replying: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-graham/index.html

    Replies: @AP

    Trump was simply accused of calling Putin a genius or smart. Well, until he stupidly tried to take all of Ukraine things were working out well for Putin. Had Hitler stopped after Czechoslovakia he, too, would have been considered a genius as a leader.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Well, that's the point after all. Trump made these statements after Putler decided to invade Ukraine. At the very least, his statement should be considered quite insensitive during these trying times, for both Ukraine and the Western world (and Russia too). I know, it's only Trump blabbering away, but even still, it's quite incredible that he'd say this and only adds more incredulity to his persona.
  45. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump was simply accused of calling Putin a genius or smart. Well, until he stupidly tried to take all of Ukraine things were working out well for Putin. Had Hitler stopped after Czechoslovakia he, too, would have been considered a genius as a leader.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Well, that’s the point after all. Trump made these statements after Putler decided to invade Ukraine. At the very least, his statement should be considered quite insensitive during these trying times, for both Ukraine and the Western world (and Russia too). I know, it’s only Trump blabbering away, but even still, it’s quite incredible that he’d say this and only adds more incredulity to his persona.

    •�Agree: Bardon Kaldian
  46. A123 says: •�Website
    @Mikhail
    Ukrainian Views - Russia Bashing Israel Supporters - Kiev Regime Military - BBC Busted - Fact Checks

    https://twitter.com/futurebrain1/status/1498738347518353410

    Familiar?

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500052493765681152

    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500014952593207297

    Talk about double standards -

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1499875071522918406

    Re: https://www.unz.com/article/russia-ukraine-2-the-world-order-has-changed/

    Excerpt -

    The long column that so obsessed the “experts” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)
    https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500029916896579585

    Oops -

    https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1500014251800502272

    Disgusting if true -

    https://twitter.com/BlankName5000/status/1500109366833430531

    https://www.rt.com/russia/551306-ukraine-negotiator-reported-killed/

    Maybe not 120,000 Greeks in that area, while the gist being true -

    https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1500033984444923904

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    Mikhail,

    Please limit yourself to ONE tweet above the [MORE] tag per Mr. Unz guidance. (1)

    the large volume of Tweets and other embedded material has led to complaints of sluggishness, so I’m opening this new thread.

    In order to minimize such problems in the future, it’s probably a good idea to use the MORE tag to hide all but the first Tweet in your comments and otherwise show proper consideration for your fellow commenters

    As to the accusation about the BBC. They are an anti-Israel, pro-terror extension of Pallywood: (2)

    The BBC recently glorified a woman who murdered eight children. By providing unrepentant terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, notorious for her role in the 2001 Sbarro restaurant suicide bombing in Jerusalem, with a massive platform, the news outlet showed its true colors when it comes to coverage of the Jewish state. Will the BBC’s anti-Israel bias finally be exposed?

    Odds are the “How to attack Russian viehckes” poster is derived from a prior BBC “How to attack Israel military vehicles”. It is very sad that UK citizens are compelled to pay for anti-Semitic media like the Beeb.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/

    (2) https://honestreporting.com/bbc-slammed-for-glorifying-palestinian-terrorist/

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @A123

    Wasn't aware of that. Will do so in the future.

    The BBC is far more anti-Russia than anti-Israel as noted in one of the tweets I posted.
    , @silviosilver
    @A123

    If only you could somehow get the point across to Dmitry, who evidently considers himself above the law (or should that be "above the MORE" haw haw).
  47. @AP
    @Mikhail

    A decent person would have placed all of those twitter images under a more tag so that the thread won't take forever to load once the number of posts increases.

    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird

    The format is good (“decent“) enough. I concur with your other point, while noting that the gist can very well be true.

  48. @A123
    @Mikhail

    Mikhail,

    Please limit yourself to ONE tweet above the [MORE] tag per Mr. Unz guidance. (1)

    the large volume of Tweets and other embedded material has led to complaints of sluggishness, so I’m opening this new thread.

    In order to minimize such problems in the future, it’s probably a good idea to use the MORE tag to hide all but the first Tweet in your comments and otherwise show proper consideration for your fellow commenters
    As to the accusation about the BBC. They are an anti-Israel, pro-terror extension of Pallywood: (2)

    The BBC recently glorified a woman who murdered eight children. By providing unrepentant terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, notorious for her role in the 2001 Sbarro restaurant suicide bombing in Jerusalem, with a massive platform, the news outlet showed its true colors when it comes to coverage of the Jewish state. Will the BBC’s anti-Israel bias finally be exposed?
    Odds are the "How to attack Russian viehckes" poster is derived from a prior BBC "How to attack Israel military vehicles". It is very sad that UK citizens are compelled to pay for anti-Semitic media like the Beeb.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/

    (2) https://honestreporting.com/bbc-slammed-for-glorifying-palestinian-terrorist/

    Replies: @Mikhail, @silviosilver

    Wasn’t aware of that. Will do so in the future.

    The BBC is far more anti-Russia than anti-Israel as noted in one of the tweets I posted.

    •�Thanks: A123
  49. @Thulean Friend
    Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly "restricted". That won't hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created 'Erebrus' CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia's security agencies have tried to implement "technological sovereignty" but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:


    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

    We all know which country he hints at.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    Russia’ problem – or any advanced country’s for that matter – is not how to design a chip. They can do it, and so can half a dozen other places. The issue is a reliable, consistent, mass manufacturing of those chips that doesn’t cost billions to set up. That is also an issue for the West, that’s why the processor manufacturing is done in Asia, mostly Taiwan and China.

    In case of an embargo that can be fixed relatively quickly with China providing manufacturing. Ask yourself if it would work as easily in reverse: West vs. China. The current version of the global economy depends on peace and open borders among all major places. Once that’s gone, we are all going to experience major disruptions.

    •�Agree: Voltarde
  50. Ceasefires failed, USA MSM wins. Russian MOD claims the shooting came from inside the city aimed at RU troops. But not in the headlines.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @John Leonard


    Ceasefires failed, ... Russian MOD claims the shooting came from inside the city aimed at RU troops.
    Cease fires while combatants are in rifle range of each other are known to be unstable.

    A badly maintained diesel truck backfires and an 18 year old over reacts. It does not even take a 3rd party instigator, though that is also a potential source. Any number of mistakes can happen. A fight when both sides show up at the same brothel? Not impossible.

    Hopefully a new ceasefire can be put in place to buy time for negotiations.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Leonard
  51. A123 says: •�Website
    @AP
    @sudden death

    He killed the Iranian general though.

    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.

    Trump was the first to provide weapons to Ukraine; Obama had refused to do so. Trump stopped Nordstream. Trump correctly called out Germany for becoming reliant on Russian gas and for not having a military. This idea of Trump being a Russian puppet is rather bizarre and probably the work of Russia.

    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    OTOH if the crisis had happened, Ukraine might have been in more trouble, due to the fact that Trump triggered the Western Europeans and has not been a very good diplomat. The Western Europeans might not have come onboard as resolutely as they have done with Biden (or his handlers) in charge of the USA.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123

    Putin made no moves against Ukraine when Trump was in charge in Washington.
    ..
    I suspect that if Trump had won a second term this crisis would never have happened.

    Putin & Trump had respect for each other. Despite sending arms to Ukraine, Putin knew that attempts to join NATO were going nowhere. Trump refused to be lured into a war in Itan. There was virtually 0% chance of a Trump war in Ukraine. The pressure on Putin was thus, at most, symbolic. There certainly was no provocation.

    Jump forward to the current occupied White House (1)

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted angrily after President Biden agreed in an interview that the Kremlin leader was “a killer.”

    “It takes one to know one,” Putin said on national television, adding that the children’s taunt had a “very deep meaning.” People often see themselves reflected in others, Putin said, suggesting that Biden was projecting on him American guilt for slavery and the treatment of Native Americans.

    Biden’s off-hand comment in an interview Wednesday with ABC News has ended months of tight-lipped anticipation in Moscow about where relations might head under the new administration. Hopes were not particularly high for the relationship, which Putin said in November was so spoiled that it couldn’t be spoiled any more.

    Lack of respect and mental instability are very bad characteristics for any “leader”.
    _____

    I think we arrived where we are today because of a string of lose talk and terrible mistakes in communication.

    Is Putin “Justified”? No.
    Can one objectively understand why Putin felt “Badly Pressured”? Yes.

    The various logistics columns are building up supplies for the use of overwhelming force. Putin will not be baited into large scale urban combat. The best option to protect his troops is use of artillery to flatten large sections of urban buildings. Neither side in the fight wants to see Ukrainian mass casualties & cities destroyed

    I still hope that Zelensky and Putin can bypass the U.S. State Department and come to a deal. While I do not like Macron, he is a credible intermediary who can commit to rapidly revoking European sanctions. Macron, Zelensky, and Putin can share a Nobel Peace Prize if that is what it takes to stop this.

    There is still time to step back from the brink of a LOSE-LOSE situation.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.npr.org/2021/03/18/978751414/it-takes-one-to-know-one-putin-says-after-biden-agrees-that-putin-is-a-killer

    •�Agree: Aedib
  52. @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    Karlin would indicate that this is a positive development, forcing Russia to become more self reliant. The future looks bright for smart guys like him, with many opportunities to fill leadership positions within the Russian tech industry (finally a way for him to totally exit the blogging business, with its strange hours and up and down paychecks).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Perhaps whatever business he starts will outlast the ones that just quit Russia – Westerners might start shifting away from many of the brands in the list for some other Cultural War cause, new economic needs or plain changing taste. Services and consumer electronics, especially. Might be ironic revenge.

    Can Russians reactivate their accounts once emigrated? Or everything affecting Russian nationals instead of consumers in Russia?

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    As more and more real news about Putler's unprovoked war reaches the common man on the streets, and his "loyal" advisors figure out the damage done to Russia because of this stupid war, Putler will meet the fate of other unpopular leaders, such as Mussolini or Ceausescu. The kremlins are already out to destroy any independent press, for only mentioning the words "war" or "invasion" in their discourse, for which the penalty would be 15 years imprisonment. Putler is a madman that needs to be dealt with accordingly.
  53. A123 says: •�Website
    @John Leonard
    Ceasefires failed, USA MSM wins. Russian MOD claims the shooting came from inside the city aimed at RU troops. But not in the headlines. https://aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/5/ukraine-russia-announces-limited-ceasefire-to-allow-evacuations

    Replies: @A123

    Ceasefires failed, … Russian MOD claims the shooting came from inside the city aimed at RU troops.

    Cease fires while combatants are in rifle range of each other are known to be unstable.

    A badly maintained diesel truck backfires and an 18 year old over reacts. It does not even take a 3rd party instigator, though that is also a potential source. Any number of mistakes can happen. A fight when both sides show up at the same brothel? Not impossible.

    Hopefully a new ceasefire can be put in place to buy time for negotiations.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Replies: @John Leonard
    @A123

    It was an intentional ambush of the Russian soldiers conducting safe passage for the evacuees. This is on Twitter.
    Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·2hWarGonzo, who is on the frontlines right now, reports that the Sparta Battalion was covering the evacuation of civilians from Volnovakha when they were hit hard by Ukrainian forces

    Quote Tweet Semyon Pegov🇷🇺@wargonzoo ·3h⚡The guys literally covered the removal of people under fire with their bodies. The Nazis continued to conduct heavy fire on those who tried to ensure the evacuation. The battalion fought hard. There are losses.

    Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast
    Last footage of Zhoga. He's telling relatives of Volnovakha residents, who asked him to get their loved ones out of the fighting, that he will do that. Thirty minutes later he went to fulfill his promise. An hour and a half later he was KIA.

    This will make it much harder to find humanitarian solutions.
    The Ukrainians under US tutelage want there to be as heavy civilian losses as possible to stigmatize Russia.
    The ideological ones like in Mariupol act like a kind of suicide cult.
    There will need to be OSCE observers next time they try an evacuation ceasefire.
  54. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    Perhaps whatever business he starts will outlast the ones that just quit Russia - Westerners might start shifting away from many of the brands in the list for some other Cultural War cause, new economic needs or plain changing taste. Services and consumer electronics, especially. Might be ironic revenge.

    Can Russians reactivate their accounts once emigrated? Or everything affecting Russian nationals instead of consumers in Russia?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    As more and more real news about Putler’s unprovoked war reaches the common man on the streets, and his “loyal” advisors figure out the damage done to Russia because of this stupid war, Putler will meet the fate of other unpopular leaders, such as Mussolini or Ceausescu. The kremlins are already out to destroy any independent press, for only mentioning the words “war” or “invasion” in their discourse, for which the penalty would be 15 years imprisonment. Putler is a madman that needs to be dealt with accordingly.

    •�Disagree: RadicalCenter
  55. @AP
    @Mikhail

    A decent person would have placed all of those twitter images under a more tag so that the thread won't take forever to load once the number of posts increases.

    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird

    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.

    What do you have against Greeks?

    I have known many, and only one had a horrible smell, but rather like you were having bars of soap shoved up your nose, than anything else.

    •�LOL: AP
    •�Replies: @AP
    @songbird

    That was not intentional, but do people refer to Greeks as Reeks?

    I've only encountered Greeks at their restaurants and they smell normally (though I suppose the pleasant food aroma would cover anything else up).

    Replies: @songbird
  56. @songbird
    @AP


    Also, claiming that 120,000 ethnic reeks live in Mariupol is rather stupid.
    What do you have against Greeks?

    I have known many, and only one had a horrible smell, but rather like you were having bars of soap shoved up your nose, than anything else.

    Replies: @AP

    That was not intentional, but do people refer to Greeks as Reeks?

    I’ve only encountered Greeks at their restaurants and they smell normally (though I suppose the pleasant food aroma would cover anything else up).

    •�Replies: @songbird
    @AP

    Only a joke. Curiously, I can't think of any well-known pejoratives for Greeks. Perhaps, as a body, they came too late to the US to get any?

    Though, wouldn't be surprised if they had one or two in the Med, outside of Greece, where there were some long-lived communities of them.

    Replies: @AP
  57. @AP
    @songbird

    That was not intentional, but do people refer to Greeks as Reeks?

    I've only encountered Greeks at their restaurants and they smell normally (though I suppose the pleasant food aroma would cover anything else up).

    Replies: @songbird

    Only a joke. Curiously, I can’t think of any well-known pejoratives for Greeks. Perhaps, as a body, they came too late to the US to get any?

    Though, wouldn’t be surprised if they had one or two in the Med, outside of Greece, where there were some long-lived communities of them.

    •�Replies: @AP
    @songbird

    Maybe the Turks or the Bulgarians would have some?
  58. @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    Wagies Posting Ls.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Thulean Friend, @JL, @Dmitry

    Yes they have to build the wagon, but Deripaska takes the profits. When Trump then gives sanctions on Deripaska, he makes them record “Coolio” songs about supporting the working class. It’s something fallen from the mainstream timeline of history, in the stage between bourgeois capitalism and feudalism.

  59. @A123
    @John Leonard


    Ceasefires failed, ... Russian MOD claims the shooting came from inside the city aimed at RU troops.
    Cease fires while combatants are in rifle range of each other are known to be unstable.

    A badly maintained diesel truck backfires and an 18 year old over reacts. It does not even take a 3rd party instigator, though that is also a potential source. Any number of mistakes can happen. A fight when both sides show up at the same brothel? Not impossible.

    Hopefully a new ceasefire can be put in place to buy time for negotiations.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Leonard

    It was an intentional ambush of the Russian soldiers conducting safe passage for the evacuees. This is on Twitter.
    Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·2hWarGonzo, who is on the frontlines right now, reports that the Sparta Battalion was covering the evacuation of civilians from Volnovakha when they were hit hard by Ukrainian forces

    Quote Tweet Semyon Pegov🇷🇺@wargonzoo ·3h⚡The guys literally covered the removal of people under fire with their bodies. The Nazis continued to conduct heavy fire on those who tried to ensure the evacuation. The battalion fought hard. There are losses.

    Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast
    Last footage of Zhoga. He’s telling relatives of Volnovakha residents, who asked him to get their loved ones out of the fighting, that he will do that. Thirty minutes later he went to fulfill his promise. An hour and a half later he was KIA.

    This will make it much harder to find humanitarian solutions.
    The Ukrainians under US tutelage want there to be as heavy civilian losses as possible to stigmatize Russia.
    The ideological ones like in Mariupol act like a kind of suicide cult.
    There will need to be OSCE observers next time they try an evacuation ceasefire.

    •�Thanks: Aedib
  60. @JL
    @Blinky Bill

    Not just a wagie, but a Russian eurocel (it's all over for you guys, so sorry). One would think after assuring us for so long that this would never happen because all of Russia's elite children study in the West, he'd own his L. Instead, he just keeps digging deeper down the hole, lashing out at people being corrupt, stupid and evil.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Dmitry

    Are you writing about Deripaska’s factory workers or myself?

    I don’t think I’m interesting to discuss, but for whatever reasons (pessimistic instincts about politics) I have been “prepping” for a decade from such kind of situation.

    Being a “prepper” is somewhere halfway between cowardice and wisdom.

    If you want to feel sorry for someone, feel sorry for likely ten thousand people killed in Ukraine already, refugees from Ukraine who will soon be millions, people who will lose their family, never see friends again, young people never enjoy life again, etc.

    eurocel (it’s all over for you guys, so sorry).

    I have to google these words, as I’m not 13 years old. But I remember discussing with you when you said that inflation was not a problem, even without the geopolitical contribution. You still didn’t reply to the last comment when I was discussing about rising inflation.
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/based-putler/#comment-3249440 That said, people complaining about inflation while living in a safe country sounds a bit selfish and trivial in context of war.

    of Russia’s elite

    Yes, some people I know are trying to arrange to help fund for refugees, it seems like most people are not slave to demons of corruption and nihilism, even if a lot of original source of wealth had been ultimately derived with their assistance.

  61. German_reader says:
    @Aedib
    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin. That’s because the Western propaganda that claims “We hate Putin but we love Russians” crash against these events. The Western rage has played out in the siloviky hands.

    On the other hand, I think that Ukrainian forces near Donetsk and Gorlovka should start a strategic retreat toward the Kharkov-Dnipro line. Otherwise they will we trapped in a kettle. The Ukrainian forces should use their remaining mobility resources. Otherwise, the cauldron that Saker claims is closed (it is not) will start to close.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader

    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin.

    Kristallnacht events?
    The only thing I’ve noticed so far in Germany is some Russian conductor being fired from the Munich (?) opera, because he didn’t want to condemn Putin. And some restaurant hanging up a sign they don’t serve Russian guests (which was promptly criticized). But it’s not like there are general attacks, let alone physical assaults on anybody from Russia (let alone people being killed or dragged into concentration camps, which was what happened during Kristallnacht).

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @German_reader

    Just look

    https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1499160168382275590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499160168382275590%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesaker.is%2Fit-saddens-me-that-the-word-honor-has-been-forgotten%2F

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP
  62. In case anyone missed:

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Still peddling that old pro-Putler BS, Averko? The first 24 seconds sound like you're describing yourself, knee jerk reactions and all.

    Replies: @Mikhail
  63. Here is an example of a less pleasant “nostalgia” of the 1980s.

    Zbigniew Brzezinski, “National Security Advisor” in the White House, had promoted giving through Pakistan, weapons to Mujahideen of Afghanistan, in the war against Soviet occupation.

    According to Wikipedia, there is controversy whether Brzezinski saw this war as a “bear trap” to weaken the USSR, in confrontation with the USA (with a Machiavellian cynicism). Or if instead, he had tried to prevent the invasion.

    Later, in the Reagan government, support for Mujahideen of Afghanistan included Stinger MANPADS. Introduction of Stinger MANPADS in Afghanistan, resulted in regular destruction of Soviet ground support aviation, Mil Mi-24 and Su-25.

    (After the war, not all the Stinger MANPADS were returned and there were worries that a civilian airplane would be destroyed by terrorists using this equipment.)

    In February 2022, United States, Estonia, Latvia and Germany, begin to provide the same Stinger MANPADS to Ukraine, at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    As in Soviet-Afghan war of 1979-1989, Mil Mi-24 and Su-25 are facing the Stinger.

    35 years later and there is a historical “reunion” of Mil Mi-24 with Stinger but only the camera equipment and landscape changes.

    Whether civilian airplanes will be safe after this, is another question.

  64. @Mikhail
    In case anyone missed:

    https://twitter.com/77WABCradio/status/1499419255716069378

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Still peddling that old pro-Putler BS, Averko? The first 24 seconds sound like you’re describing yourself, knee jerk reactions and all.

    •�LOL: Mikhail
    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Another good one, this time with disco Joe Piscopo and Douglas Macgregor at the 21 minute mark:

    https://omny.fm/shows/the-joe-piscopo-show/7-am-hour-the-joe-piscopo-show-3-3-22

    Going into this show, Joe Piscopo is very unaware of the violent hostility of the Kiev regime towards the rebel Donbass inhabitants - in line with what Petro Poroshenko said in 2014: "Their children will hole up in basements [from our bombs], because they are not able to do anything. This is exactly how we will win this war!"

    https://ainhoaaristizabal.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/httpwp-mep2sum5-6aq/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpZusD92rrg

    Neighborhoods without rebels leveled, hundreds of thousands of refugees going to Russia, many displaced and killed c/o Kiev regime action.

    Good to see that Frank Morano isn't the only WABC Talk Radio NY host offering a diverse overview of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Mr. Hack
  65. Stan says: •�Website

    Vladimir Putin declares war on the Straussians
    by Thierry Meyssan
    Russia is not waging war on the Ukrainian people, but on a small group of people within US power who have transformed Ukraine without knowing it, the Straussians. It was formed half a century ago and has already committed an incredible amount of crimes in Latin America and the Middle East unbeknownst to the United States. Here is their story.

    Let’s dwell for a moment on this group, the Straussians, about whom Westerners know little. These are individuals, all Jews, but absolutely not representative of American Jews or Jewish communities in the world. They were trained by the German philosopher, Leo Strauss, who took refuge in the United States during the rise of Nazism and became a professor of philosophy at the University of Chicago. According to many accounts, he had amassed a small group of faithful students to whom he gave oral instruction. So there are no writings about it. He explained to them that the only way for the Jews not to be victims of a new genocide was to constitute their own dictatorship. He referred to them as the Hoplites(the soldiers of Sparta) and sent them to disrupt the courts of his rivals. Finally, he taught them discretion and praised the “noble lie.” Although he died in 1973, his student fraternity continued.

    The Straussians began forming a political group half a century ago, in 1972. They were all members of Democratic Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson’s staff, including Elliott Abrams, Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz. They worked closely with a group of Trotskyist journalists, also Jewish, who had known each other at the City College of New York and edited the journal Commentary . they were called the “New York Intellectuals” ( New York Intellectuals). All of these two groups were closely linked to the CIA, but also thanks to Perle’s father-in-law, Albert Wohlstetter (the US military strategist), to the Rand Corporation (the think tank of the military-industrial complex). Many of these young people intermarried until they formed a compact group of a hundred people.

    Together, they drafted and passed, in the midst of the Watergate crisis (1974), the “Jackson-Vanik amendment” which forced the Soviet Union to authorize the emigration of its Jewish population to Israel under penalty of economic sanctions. It is their founding act.

    PNAC raised funds for the candidacy of George W. Bush (Jr.) and published its famous report ” Rebuilding America’s Defenses ” before his election . In it, he calls for a catastrophe comparable to that of Pearl Harbor which would throw the American people into a war for global hegemony. These are exactly the terms that PNAC member Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used on September 11, 2001.

    Thanks to the attacks of September 11, Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz installed Admiral Arthur Cebrowski in the shadow of Donald Rumsfeld. He held a role comparable to that which Albert Wohlstetter had had during the Cold War. He imposed the strategy of “war without end”: the US armed forces should no longer win wars, but start a large number of them and make them last as long as possible. It would be a question of destroying all the political structures of the targeted States in order to ruin these populations and to deprive them of any means of defending themselves against the USA [ 7 ] ; a strategy implemented for twenty years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen…

    Since the return of Joe Biden to the White House, this time as President of the United States, the Straussians have held the entire system. “Jake” Sullivan is National Security Advisor, while Antony Blinken is Secretary of State with Victoria Nuland at his side. As I’ve reported in previous articles, she’s heading to Moscow in October 2021 and threatening to crush Russia’s economy if she doesn’t comply. This is the beginning of the current crisis.

    https://www.voltairenet.org/article215852.html

  66. Wonder how Yulia Tymoshenko would have fared as wartime leader.

    I just watched this interview of her in Al-Jazeera. She comes off well – tenacious yet dignified.

  67. @A123
    @Mikhail

    Mikhail,

    Please limit yourself to ONE tweet above the [MORE] tag per Mr. Unz guidance. (1)

    the large volume of Tweets and other embedded material has led to complaints of sluggishness, so I’m opening this new thread.

    In order to minimize such problems in the future, it’s probably a good idea to use the MORE tag to hide all but the first Tweet in your comments and otherwise show proper consideration for your fellow commenters
    As to the accusation about the BBC. They are an anti-Israel, pro-terror extension of Pallywood: (2)

    The BBC recently glorified a woman who murdered eight children. By providing unrepentant terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, notorious for her role in the 2001 Sbarro restaurant suicide bombing in Jerusalem, with a massive platform, the news outlet showed its true colors when it comes to coverage of the Jewish state. Will the BBC’s anti-Israel bias finally be exposed?
    Odds are the "How to attack Russian viehckes" poster is derived from a prior BBC "How to attack Israel military vehicles". It is very sad that UK citizens are compelled to pay for anti-Semitic media like the Beeb.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/

    (2) https://honestreporting.com/bbc-slammed-for-glorifying-palestinian-terrorist/

    Replies: @Mikhail, @silviosilver

    If only you could somehow get the point across to Dmitry, who evidently considers himself above the law (or should that be “above the MORE” haw haw).

  68. Are Russians still laughing about the Ukrainian territorial defense training with wooden guns?

  69. @songbird
    @AP

    Only a joke. Curiously, I can't think of any well-known pejoratives for Greeks. Perhaps, as a body, they came too late to the US to get any?

    Though, wouldn't be surprised if they had one or two in the Med, outside of Greece, where there were some long-lived communities of them.

    Replies: @AP

    Maybe the Turks or the Bulgarians would have some?

  70. Zelensky approval rating shoots up to 91%.

    My guess is that Putin thought Ukraine’s government would fold quickly owing to low approval (31% before the war). Didn’t expect Ukrainians to rally behind Zelensky.

    •�Agree: Mr. Hack
    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yahya

    I'm not able to judge his military response so far, but his PR is quite good. Everything about him betrays an image of a sincere Ukrainian patriot.
  71. @Yahya
    Zelensky approval rating shoots up to 91%.


    https://i.ibb.co/b5HhqvB/zeln.png


    My guess is that Putin thought Ukraine's government would fold quickly owing to low approval (31% before the war). Didn't expect Ukrainians to rally behind Zelensky.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I’m not able to judge his military response so far, but his PR is quite good. Everything about him betrays an image of a sincere Ukrainian patriot.

  72. @German_reader
    @Aedib


    I think the kristallnacht events against Russian people in Germany and in other Western countries are useful for Putin.
    Kristallnacht events?
    The only thing I've noticed so far in Germany is some Russian conductor being fired from the Munich (?) opera, because he didn't want to condemn Putin. And some restaurant hanging up a sign they don't serve Russian guests (which was promptly criticized). But it's not like there are general attacks, let alone physical assaults on anybody from Russia (let alone people being killed or dragged into concentration camps, which was what happened during Kristallnacht).

    Replies: @Aedib

    Just look

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Apparently that's about a single supermarket in North-Rhine-Westphalia. Police have classified it as a politically motivated crime and are investigating.
    Kristallnacht...lol. About as credible as all those "Nazis" in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Aedib, @for-the-record
    , @AP
    @Aedib

    A store having a cracked window and some eggs thrown at it is not in the same league as 7,000 Jewish shops damaged, 200+ synagogues destroyed and 91 Jews killed, which was the actual Kristallnacht.

    But I suspect Russian media will make it seem that way, and Russian-sympathizing Western rightoids will believe it.

    What next? Closing Zara and Bershka in Russia compared to Russians being placed in ghettoes?
  73. German_reader says:
    @Aedib
    @German_reader

    Just look

    https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1499160168382275590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499160168382275590%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesaker.is%2Fit-saddens-me-that-the-word-honor-has-been-forgotten%2F

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP

    Apparently that’s about a single supermarket in North-Rhine-Westphalia. Police have classified it as a politically motivated crime and are investigating.
    Kristallnacht…lol. About as credible as all those “Nazis” in Ukraine.

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @German_reader

    I can accept that this event is not generalized. But you can’t deny that happened what happened.

    Replies: @German_reader
    , @for-the-record
    @German_reader

    About as credible as all those “Nazis” in Ukraine.

    How Ukraine’s Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia

    "While Western media deploys Volodymyr Zelensky’s Jewish heritage to refute accusations of Nazi influence in Ukraine, the president has ceded to neo-Nazi forces and now depends on them as front line fighters."

    https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/

    Replies: @Mikhail
  74. Yahya says:

    Ukraine TFR = 1.23

    Population projected to drop by 14M over next 30 years.

    Someone needs to pay these Ukrainian babes to crank out more kids.

    The rich, smart and beautiful among them should be mandated to have 7 kids.

    Penalty for non-compliance is exile to Yemen.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yahya

    They are a sight to behold. It's a beautiful country including beautiful intelligent hardworking people. And Putler wants to destroy it? It's a most despicable act that will never be forgotten.

    Replies: @awry
  75. @Yahya
    Ukraine TFR = 1.23

    Population projected to drop by 14M over next 30 years.

    Someone needs to pay these Ukrainian babes to crank out more kids.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRiO8QtzTCw&ab_channel=Sturmbericht

    The rich, smart and beautiful among them should be mandated to have 7 kids.

    Penalty for non-compliance is exile to Yemen.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    They are a sight to behold. It’s a beautiful country including beautiful intelligent hardworking people. And Putler wants to destroy it? It’s a most despicable act that will never be forgotten.

    •�Replies: @awry
    @Mr. Hack

    Doubt that he wants to destroy it, the bear wants to embrace his wayward children.
    But to quote from an interview from a Hungarian who has been collecting folk songs in Ukraine:
    "In the east of Ukraine, the older generation had an interesting sense of identity: they were proud of the Soviet past, but when asked if they would join Russia, they said no. They want a big empire again, but also an independent Ukraine. But with the election of Zelensky in 2019, for the first time, it was not possible to map the East-West fracture in Ukraine on the basis of votes. It has become common for Russian-speaking people to claim to be Ukrainian. If the current occupation had taken place ten years earlier, the state could have easily fall apart; during less than ten years, Ukraine has undergone a change. The occupation of Crimea and the eastern region has created such a unified rejection that pro-Russian and anti-Russian actors have been brought to a common platform.
    In any case, I consider this war aggression, which is destabilizing not only Ukraine but also Russia, to be self-destructive and deeply reprehensible for the people of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
    There has also been a lot of irresponsibility in Ukrainian politics in recent years, such as the language law that has affected Hungarians in Transcarpathia or the strategy of NATO and EU membership that ignores the geopolitical reality, but it is clear to me that this unexpected conflict.
    The West does not understand the thinking of the eastern world. few speak eastern languages, few know their culture, their history. Whatever the outcome of the war, the relative stability of the Ukrainian state has deteriorated. Thousands of foreigners are coming to the country to fight from all over the world, the weapons flooding the population will not be taken out of circulation again for a long time, and the senseless destruction of millions of civilian lives will ignite unquenchable rage among the people. Even now, I can’t comprehend exactly what this is about, what are the benefits of this invasion? I understand his background, I also understand the Russian motive and the Ukrainian interests, but I think that this has been escalated into a frontal war is incomprehensible and unacceptable. We are one step away from making Ukraine the land of the Cossacks again."
  76. AP says:
    @Aedib
    @German_reader

    Just look

    https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1499160168382275590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499160168382275590%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesaker.is%2Fit-saddens-me-that-the-word-honor-has-been-forgotten%2F

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP

    A store having a cracked window and some eggs thrown at it is not in the same league as 7,000 Jewish shops damaged, 200+ synagogues destroyed and 91 Jews killed, which was the actual Kristallnacht.

    But I suspect Russian media will make it seem that way, and Russian-sympathizing Western rightoids will believe it.

    What next? Closing Zara and Bershka in Russia compared to Russians being placed in ghettoes?

  77. @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Apparently that's about a single supermarket in North-Rhine-Westphalia. Police have classified it as a politically motivated crime and are investigating.
    Kristallnacht...lol. About as credible as all those "Nazis" in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Aedib, @for-the-record

    I can accept that this event is not generalized. But you can’t deny that happened what happened.

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Fucking ridiculous, some smashed windows and a bit of paint thrown at a supermarket is a total non-event, nothing special. Same things happen to Turkish installations because of Kurdish issues, or indeed to AfD party offices...or to many other groups. I even agree in principle that it would be wrong and a disastrous idea to target Russians for being Russians...but so far this hasn't really happened in Germany (or to my knowledge in any other Western country).

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack
  78. German_reader says:
    @Aedib
    @German_reader

    I can accept that this event is not generalized. But you can’t deny that happened what happened.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Fucking ridiculous, some smashed windows and a bit of paint thrown at a supermarket is a total non-event, nothing special. Same things happen to Turkish installations because of Kurdish issues, or indeed to AfD party offices…or to many other groups. I even agree in principle that it would be wrong and a disastrous idea to target Russians for being Russians…but so far this hasn’t really happened in Germany (or to my knowledge in any other Western country).

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @German_reader

    C’mon! Be truthful, man. I saw CNN gloating about several Russian Opera singers been fired in the USA. I can pass you this example of the Western Orwellian hysteria:


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/the-show-cant-go-on-russian-arts-cancelled-worldwide#:~:text=Vladimir%20Putin's%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20has%20prompted%20responses%20from%20the,decisions%20taken%20by%20the%20Kremlin.

    Also, Russians will be banned from Costa del Sol next summer and Nikita Mazepin banned from F1 (I tend to agree with this decision because he always was an awful racer). There are several other examples.
    You are denying what my eyes are seeing.Try to avoid the double-think that Western MinTrue is pumping.
    PD: Again; Putin and the siloviky are probably pleased to see this anti-Russian hysteria in the West. NATO regimes went full IngSoc mode.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    There are a lot of Germans traveling to Poland in order to help Ukrainian refugees and even to take them back to Germany if the need arises. This help is greatly appreciated.

    My younger cousin left his wife and two kids behind and decided to leave his comfortable American home and travel back to his birthplace to volunteer his services to the resistance. There are some 3,000 Americans that have made similar decisions.
  79. Russia losing and losing hard. Ukrainians are the heroes of the free world. Actually, just of the world. I wish I was in a place to volunteer to support directly. I did book a bunch of Airbnb nights in Kharkiv. A small contribution from a small person.

  80. Aedib says:
    @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Fucking ridiculous, some smashed windows and a bit of paint thrown at a supermarket is a total non-event, nothing special. Same things happen to Turkish installations because of Kurdish issues, or indeed to AfD party offices...or to many other groups. I even agree in principle that it would be wrong and a disastrous idea to target Russians for being Russians...but so far this hasn't really happened in Germany (or to my knowledge in any other Western country).

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack

    C’mon! Be truthful, man. I saw CNN gloating about several Russian Opera singers been fired in the USA. I can pass you this example of the Western Orwellian hysteria:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/the-show-cant-go-on-russian-arts-cancelled-worldwide#:~:text=Vladimir%20Putin’s%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20has%20prompted%20responses%20from%20the,decisions%20taken%20by%20the%20Kremlin.

    Also, Russians will be banned from Costa del Sol next summer and Nikita Mazepin banned from F1 (I tend to agree with this decision because he always was an awful racer). There are several other examples.
    You are denying what my eyes are seeing.Try to avoid the double-think that Western MinTrue is pumping.
    PD: Again; Putin and the siloviky are probably pleased to see this anti-Russian hysteria in the West. NATO regimes went full IngSoc mode.

    •�Agree: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Aedib

    This should be the sole reason to blindly support Putin. A middle-finger to the ignorant Devils. Be the sycophants they think all of you are.

    That is why I wholeheartedly support whatever Xi does.
  81. @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Fucking ridiculous, some smashed windows and a bit of paint thrown at a supermarket is a total non-event, nothing special. Same things happen to Turkish installations because of Kurdish issues, or indeed to AfD party offices...or to many other groups. I even agree in principle that it would be wrong and a disastrous idea to target Russians for being Russians...but so far this hasn't really happened in Germany (or to my knowledge in any other Western country).

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack

    There are a lot of Germans traveling to Poland in order to help Ukrainian refugees and even to take them back to Germany if the need arises. This help is greatly appreciated.

    My younger cousin left his wife and two kids behind and decided to leave his comfortable American home and travel back to his birthplace to volunteer his services to the resistance. There are some 3,000 Americans that have made similar decisions.

  82. Mikhail says: •�Website

    PBS airs blurred photo of Bandera, while being non-committal of it relative to what the guy speaking says:

    Not the first time that Nick Schifrin has propped anti-Russian BS:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/16042016-settling-nagorno-karabakh-and-reviewing-the-peripheral-talking-points-analysis/

    In belittling the Neo-Nazi issue, the likes of Fareed Zakaria have repeatedly noted the Jewish background of Ukraine’s president and prime minister. That spin is quite faulty as noted;

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-coverage-update-what-western-mass-media-downplays/

  83. We know about about the mud now. So the whole Russian armey is at the end of tis supply lines.

    The naval infantry seem to mutinied. The VDV failed to capture one airfield before it was destroyed and may fragged 3 general officers.

    Meanwhile the airforce.

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

    •�LOL: Mikhail
    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Mud seemed less of a problem than in e.g. 1940s, because the mainly column only drives on the smooth asphalt of modern roads.

    On the other hand, this means most territory is not occupied, but it is mostly only roads.

    So, this discussion about cauldrons can apply to cities being circled. But for light infantry, they seem to be able to often walk in front and behind each other's line.

    Replies: @Wokechoke
    , @utu
    @Philip Owen

    IT’S A PUTINY! Russian marines ‘MUTINY on warship and refuse to fight in Ukraine’ fuelling hopes of anti-Putin unrest, reports claim
    https://www.the-sun.com/news/4795768/russia-mutiny-army-ukraine-vladimir-putin/
  84. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Still peddling that old pro-Putler BS, Averko? The first 24 seconds sound like you're describing yourself, knee jerk reactions and all.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Another good one, this time with disco Joe Piscopo and Douglas Macgregor at the 21 minute mark:

    https://omny.fm/shows/the-joe-piscopo-show/7-am-hour-the-joe-piscopo-show-3-3-22

    Going into this show, Joe Piscopo is very unaware of the violent hostility of the Kiev regime towards the rebel Donbass inhabitants – in line with what Petro Poroshenko said in 2014: “Their children will hole up in basements [from our bombs], because they are not able to do anything. This is exactly how we will win this war!

    https://ainhoaaristizabal.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/httpwp-mep2sum5-6aq/

    Neighborhoods without rebels leveled, hundreds of thousands of refugees going to Russia, many displaced and killed c/o Kiev regime action.

    Good to see that Frank Morano isn’t the only WABC Talk Radio NY host offering a diverse overview of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

    •�Agree: Aedib
    •�Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Mikhail

    Refugees in Saratov in August 2014. 500 children. 800 women. 1900 men almost entirely young from observation. Yong men fleeing conscription into the Donbass army not refugees from shelling.
    , @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Trying to bring in the propaganda BS of the Donbas war to cover the crimes against humanity that Russia is involved in today within Ukraine is not going to work today Mickey.

    This is Russian aggression in its ugliest nadir. Bombing apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, churches, peoples houses is sadism at its worst. By trying to cover up these crimes by your nauseatingly low life manner you in effect also have the blood of Ukrainians on your hands. You and your fellow travelers are a despicable lot, I hope that you all burn in hell. And don't try any of your stupid whataboutisms with me, wrong is wrong, and naked Russian aggression in Ukraine is just plain wrong.

    Replies: @Mikhail
  85. •�Agree: Thulean Friend
  86. We were wondering during military buildup last month about OMON units. I had seen many buildups of OMON vehicles in those tiktok videos of military buildup before the invasion, in the days all were still hoping it was a bluff.

    I could not believe they were actually riot police unit, instead of a more military special forces units with sniper rifles and heavier weapons.

    But these are riot police units, which were in the first echelon of invasion.

    Perhaps this is something Heinz Guderian has written about how you should do blitzkrieg, with a plastic shield to defend against Ukrainian navalnists.

    •�Replies: @utu
    @Dmitry

    "riot police unit" - As if they really believed the official propaganda that the intervention (humanitarian) is about suppressing few neo-nazis who terrorize Ukrainians who actually are Russians and got confused about their true identity by the neo-nazis so a simple action of riot police would suffice to bring those confused Russians to their senses.

    Clearly it indicates that the communication between Kremlin and Russian military is very poor which may stem from the systemic Russian cultural deficiency that goes back to the pre revolutionary Russia.

    I do not think that American army invading Iraq would be carrying tonnes of copies of American constitution in Arabic to help Iraqis to learn about democracy as bringing democracy to Iraq was the ostensive reason for the invasion as that was what Bush and all American officials were talking about. Pentagon is not that stupid. But apparently Russian military command is.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  87. utu says:

    Convoy picks up cars and anti-Ukraine talking points ahead of Washington arrival
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/convoy-picks-cars-anti-ukraine-talking-points-ahead-washington-arrival-rcna18716

    Pro-Putin Disinformation on Ukraine Is Thriving in Online Anti-Vax Groups
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/pro-putin-disinformation-on-ukraine-is-thriving-in-online-anti-vax-groups/

    Anti-vax conspiracy theorists in US turning to antisemitic pro-Putin propaganda, report says
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/putin-propaganda-usa-conspiracy-theorist-b2027230.html

    Australian online anti-vaccine groups switch to Putin praise and Ukraine conspiracies
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/australias-anti-vaccine-groups-switch-focus-to-putin-praise-and-ukraine-conspiracies

    Czech anti-vaxxers turning into pro-Russian activists
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/czech-anti-vaxxers-turning-into-pro-russian-activists/

    How Germany became ground zero for the COVID infodemic
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/germany-ground-zero-covid-infodemic-russia-far-right/

    The Far-Right Has Turned East Germans Against Vaccines
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/12/germany-vaccines-soviets-afd/

    Putin’s Long War Against American Science
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9357/

    Weaponized Health Communication: Twitter Bots and Russian Trolls Amplify the Vaccine Debate
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30138075/

    And last but not least: Mike Whitney at Unz Review

    •�Replies: @AaronB
    @utu

    War makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    I am not anti-vaxx, but I am anti-vaxx mandates and what I regard as the general climate of fear and control that increasingly characterizes our culture and that manifested so disturbingly with Covid.

    I am also anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine - so I certainly don't fit your narrative.

    The far-right admiration for Putin emerging during this invasion makes clear they do not have a principled objection to totalitarianism - they merely want to be the ones doing the oppressing.

    But this has been obvious for some time, in their admiration for China - it is just more glaringly out in the open now, in a more disgusting, cowardly, and inhumane way.

    It is clear now that the far right never truly objected to the control freakery and fear mongering over Covid, they merely objected to the side doing it.

    If Putin was doing it, it would be great. I suppose it was a huge tell, and one that I didn't give adequate attention to, when the same far right that shouted so loudly against covid measures in the US continued to admire China, and did not at all begin criticizing it, despite having the world's most insane totalitarian overreaction to Covid.

    That the alt right is now supporting totalitarianism and bullying in the form of Putin, should not at all surprise an attentive observer - which I admit I have not always been.

    Principled thinkers and writers like Charles Eisenstein and Paul Kingsnorth who are not far right and are also deeply critical of the culture of control and fear surrounding Covid are not pro-Putin - not at all.

    On the other hand, Tritelia Laxa has written quite eloquently against Putin and for Ukraine, yet with a tone of strident arrogance and superiority that betrays a desire to control and dominate reminiscent of Karlin and Chieh, just on the other side.

    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    Even you and I, somehow, appear to be on the same side in this Ukraine thing. Yet I completely oppose you in your fear mongering, hysteria, and control freakery over Covid.

    Trying to link opposition to Russian totalitarianism and bullying to support for domestic Covid totalitarianism and bullying is a rather feeble and transparent play, but also a good example of how we live in confusing and chaotic times where apparent similarities may conceal vast differences, and alliances across lines point to a loss of a central organizing story.

    As far as I can tell, the narrative emerging on the alt right or the far right or whatever you want to call it is that Ukrainians actually really do want to be absorbed into Russia, but the Jewish Zelensky is manipulating their helpless and pathetically weak minds into resisting. Or Jewry as a whole is doing this or something.

    It's absolutely breathtaking in it's boundless contempt for Ukrainians and it's ugly mockery of their sacrifice and courage. It's a view of the world that is just contemptuous of humanity in general. As usual, only the Jews, or America, have agency, and everyone else is just a pawn or a puppet - a view generally promoted by Ron Unz, who finds American or Jewish machinations behind everything Russia or China does that he doesn't like.

    I was starting to think less bad of the alt right, but this war has reminded me again of just how utterly useless they will be in the social renewal that the globe will have to undergo after the breakdown of modernity, and how they are essentially no different than the Woke crowd and a symptom of the modern disease in a very intense form.

    Another faction that seems to largely support Putin is the techno-utopians and materialists - generally, out of a worship of power and bigness and a desire to see bigness and numbers prevail, which validates their understanding of life.

    Well well well, we do live in interesting times....

    I do have to say I am pleasantly surprised by Dmitry not supporting the invasion and generally not being a water carrier for Putin, despite being a materialist.

    Replies: @utu, @Emil Nikola Richard
  88. @Philip Owen
    We know about about the mud now. So the whole Russian armey is at the end of tis supply lines.

    The naval infantry seem to mutinied. The VDV failed to capture one airfield before it was destroyed and may fragged 3 general officers.

    Meanwhile the airforce.

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    Mud seemed less of a problem than in e.g. 1940s, because the mainly column only drives on the smooth asphalt of modern roads.

    On the other hand, this means most territory is not occupied, but it is mostly only roads.

    So, this discussion about cauldrons can apply to cities being circled. But for light infantry, they seem to be able to often walk in front and behind each other’s line.

    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Dmitry

    If you occupy the junctions on highways in a modern country you get to pick the facilities you capture and/or Starve.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  89. @Philip Owen
    We know about about the mud now. So the whole Russian armey is at the end of tis supply lines.

    The naval infantry seem to mutinied. The VDV failed to capture one airfield before it was destroyed and may fragged 3 general officers.

    Meanwhile the airforce.

    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    IT’S A PUTINY! Russian marines ‘MUTINY on warship and refuse to fight in Ukraine’ fuelling hopes of anti-Putin unrest, reports claim
    https://www.the-sun.com/news/4795768/russia-mutiny-army-ukraine-vladimir-putin/

    •�LOL: Mikhail
  90. Russia will have to hit NATO, that much is clear.

    I say start by taking out the missiles in Poland-bait the US warships to come across the Atlantic.

    Sink them with one hypersonic each.

    Tactical nuclear strike on DC.

    No one in the US will go to war over nuking DC-they will be totally elated.

    •�Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @Philip Owen
    @nickels

    Russia has no working hypersonic missiles and will not have for some years. Demo units are not production units.
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @nickels

    My prediction (unlikely right now): blitzkrieg in the Baltics, and then strikes on NATO and American assets in Europe.

    US imposes the draft and is bogged down in Europe (like 'Nam).

    China is urged to take on Taiwan + 1st Island Chain and take out the US Fleets with carrier killers.

    Strategic nuclear strikes in Western Europe and America that take out as many military, political and civilian targets as possible, killing 2/3 of the population, and that will ensure capitulation, even at the cost of 1/3 population loss in Russia & China, which is more survivable.

    And finally trials on what's left of American leadership.

    If Putin is really the 4D chessmaster he will be deciding on this right now - Russian Foreign Ministry is saying Germany is insufficiently denazified, and the best sign we are right will be him saying the US government is fascist and must be eliminated. I wish this is wrong.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sher singh
  91. utu says:
    @Dmitry
    We were wondering during military buildup last month about OMON units. I had seen many buildups of OMON vehicles in those tiktok videos of military buildup before the invasion, in the days all were still hoping it was a bluff.

    I could not believe they were actually riot police unit, instead of a more military special forces units with sniper rifles and heavier weapons.

    But these are riot police units, which were in the first echelon of invasion.

    Perhaps this is something Heinz Guderian has written about how you should do blitzkrieg, with a plastic shield to defend against Ukrainian navalnists.

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500240859492757506

    Replies: @utu

    “riot police unit” – As if they really believed the official propaganda that the intervention (humanitarian) is about suppressing few neo-nazis who terrorize Ukrainians who actually are Russians and got confused about their true identity by the neo-nazis so a simple action of riot police would suffice to bring those confused Russians to their senses.

    Clearly it indicates that the communication between Kremlin and Russian military is very poor which may stem from the systemic Russian cultural deficiency that goes back to the pre revolutionary Russia.

    I do not think that American army invading Iraq would be carrying tonnes of copies of American constitution in Arabic to help Iraqis to learn about democracy as bringing democracy to Iraq was the ostensive reason for the invasion as that was what Bush and all American officials were talking about. Pentagon is not that stupid. But apparently Russian military command is.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @utu

    Its plan was for some kind of rapid entrance of forces into the population center, by driving the military very fast on these modern asphalt roads.

    After the forces were in the city (as in Melitopol), then riot police would imprison protesters, while perhaps some Chechen units would follow the list to capture or assassinate the nationalists.

    There are many videos showing destroyed prisoner transport vehicles. So, they are driving prisoner transport vehicles in Ukraine.

    But because the first echelon simply drive fast on a modern highway, they are not occupying territory behind them.

    As a result, there is not a real "Kessel" (cauldron) like in the blitzkrieg concept.

    Ukrainians' light infantry seems to be walking behind the first echelon, destroying more vulnerable convoys behind (according to a famous T.E. Lawrence tactic).

    Here were around 30 vehicles destroyed in the convoy near Kharkov.
    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500258525750206465


    During military buildup, I was discussing this with AP in the forum on 17 February.

    I thought Ukrainian forces would be destroyed in deciduous forests without leaves, due to Russian drone-directed artillery that has been introduced in the last 3-4 years. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-175/#comment-5181184

    I believed it would be more like Azerbaijan-Armenia war in October 2020, where Azerbaijan has shown a very modern drone technology imported from Western countries.

    But among other aspects, such level of capability is not simply existing in the Russian army yet. Orlan-10 drone likely doesn't have optics comparable to those drones used by Azerbaijan, neither number of drones, and with far more sensor-shooter delay.

    So, AP's view of this Finland 1939-1940/ T.E. Lawrence tactic, was the true description.

    the communication between Kremlin

    There is a situation where Putin seems to believe often propaganda created by employees. You can see this for years with the economic discussions. Often he seems to remember all kinds of numerical data about economy which are wrong (when you check yourself), but probably someone has said for him for their own benefit.

    American army invading Iraq

    America's military showed incredible organization capacity with this invasion of a country thousands of kilometers and oceans from their home (they only lose 1 tank), but with completely messianic or irrational motive for such a crazy and criminal project, which is demonstrated by having almost no plan for subsequent years after regime-change.
  92. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Another good one, this time with disco Joe Piscopo and Douglas Macgregor at the 21 minute mark:

    https://omny.fm/shows/the-joe-piscopo-show/7-am-hour-the-joe-piscopo-show-3-3-22

    Going into this show, Joe Piscopo is very unaware of the violent hostility of the Kiev regime towards the rebel Donbass inhabitants - in line with what Petro Poroshenko said in 2014: "Their children will hole up in basements [from our bombs], because they are not able to do anything. This is exactly how we will win this war!"

    https://ainhoaaristizabal.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/httpwp-mep2sum5-6aq/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpZusD92rrg

    Neighborhoods without rebels leveled, hundreds of thousands of refugees going to Russia, many displaced and killed c/o Kiev regime action.

    Good to see that Frank Morano isn't the only WABC Talk Radio NY host offering a diverse overview of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Mr. Hack

    Refugees in Saratov in August 2014. 500 children. 800 women. 1900 men almost entirely young from observation. Yong men fleeing conscription into the Donbass army not refugees from shelling.

    •�Disagree: Mikhail
    •�Thanks: AP
  93. @nickels
    Russia will have to hit NATO, that much is clear.

    I say start by taking out the missiles in Poland-bait the US warships to come across the Atlantic.

    Sink them with one hypersonic each.

    Tactical nuclear strike on DC.

    No one in the US will go to war over nuking DC-they will be totally elated.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Yellowface Anon

    Russia has no working hypersonic missiles and will not have for some years. Demo units are not production units.

  94. @utu
    Convoy picks up cars and anti-Ukraine talking points ahead of Washington arrival
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/convoy-picks-cars-anti-ukraine-talking-points-ahead-washington-arrival-rcna18716

    Pro-Putin Disinformation on Ukraine Is Thriving in Online Anti-Vax Groups
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/pro-putin-disinformation-on-ukraine-is-thriving-in-online-anti-vax-groups/

    Anti-vax conspiracy theorists in US turning to antisemitic pro-Putin propaganda, report says
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/putin-propaganda-usa-conspiracy-theorist-b2027230.html

    Australian online anti-vaccine groups switch to Putin praise and Ukraine conspiracies
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/australias-anti-vaccine-groups-switch-focus-to-putin-praise-and-ukraine-conspiracies

    Czech anti-vaxxers turning into pro-Russian activists
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/czech-anti-vaxxers-turning-into-pro-russian-activists/

    How Germany became ground zero for the COVID infodemic
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/germany-ground-zero-covid-infodemic-russia-far-right/

    The Far-Right Has Turned East Germans Against Vaccines
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/12/germany-vaccines-soviets-afd/

    Putin’s Long War Against American Science
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9357/

    Weaponized Health Communication: Twitter Bots and Russian Trolls Amplify the Vaccine Debate
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30138075/

    And last but not least: Mike Whitney at Unz Review

    Replies: @AaronB

    War makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    I am not anti-vaxx, but I am anti-vaxx mandates and what I regard as the general climate of fear and control that increasingly characterizes our culture and that manifested so disturbingly with Covid.

    I am also anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine – so I certainly don’t fit your narrative.

    The far-right admiration for Putin emerging during this invasion makes clear they do not have a principled objection to totalitarianism – they merely want to be the ones doing the oppressing.

    But this has been obvious for some time, in their admiration for China – it is just more glaringly out in the open now, in a more disgusting, cowardly, and inhumane way.

    It is clear now that the far right never truly objected to the control freakery and fear mongering over Covid, they merely objected to the side doing it.

    If Putin was doing it, it would be great. I suppose it was a huge tell, and one that I didn’t give adequate attention to, when the same far right that shouted so loudly against covid measures in the US continued to admire China, and did not at all begin criticizing it, despite having the world’s most insane totalitarian overreaction to Covid.

    That the alt right is now supporting totalitarianism and bullying in the form of Putin, should not at all surprise an attentive observer – which I admit I have not always been.

    Principled thinkers and writers like Charles Eisenstein and Paul Kingsnorth who are not far right and are also deeply critical of the culture of control and fear surrounding Covid are not pro-Putin – not at all.

    On the other hand, Tritelia Laxa has written quite eloquently against Putin and for Ukraine, yet with a tone of strident arrogance and superiority that betrays a desire to control and dominate reminiscent of Karlin and Chieh, just on the other side.

    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    Even you and I, somehow, appear to be on the same side in this Ukraine thing. Yet I completely oppose you in your fear mongering, hysteria, and control freakery over Covid.

    Trying to link opposition to Russian totalitarianism and bullying to support for domestic Covid totalitarianism and bullying is a rather feeble and transparent play, but also a good example of how we live in confusing and chaotic times where apparent similarities may conceal vast differences, and alliances across lines point to a loss of a central organizing story.

    As far as I can tell, the narrative emerging on the alt right or the far right or whatever you want to call it is that Ukrainians actually really do want to be absorbed into Russia, but the Jewish Zelensky is manipulating their helpless and pathetically weak minds into resisting. Or Jewry as a whole is doing this or something.

    It’s absolutely breathtaking in it’s boundless contempt for Ukrainians and it’s ugly mockery of their sacrifice and courage. It’s a view of the world that is just contemptuous of humanity in general. As usual, only the Jews, or America, have agency, and everyone else is just a pawn or a puppet – a view generally promoted by Ron Unz, who finds American or Jewish machinations behind everything Russia or China does that he doesn’t like.

    I was starting to think less bad of the alt right, but this war has reminded me again of just how utterly useless they will be in the social renewal that the globe will have to undergo after the breakdown of modernity, and how they are essentially no different than the Woke crowd and a symptom of the modern disease in a very intense form.

    Another faction that seems to largely support Putin is the techno-utopians and materialists – generally, out of a worship of power and bigness and a desire to see bigness and numbers prevail, which validates their understanding of life.

    Well well well, we do live in interesting times….

    I do have to say I am pleasantly surprised by Dmitry not supporting the invasion and generally not being a water carrier for Putin, despite being a materialist.

    •�Replies: @utu
    @AaronB

    Russia did not manufacture idiots. The idiots are homegrown. Russia used them and weaponized them. Covid pandemic was a prefect opportunity for weaponizing idiots. Actually it was the most successful disinformation campaign that Russia (and China) ever conducted:

    https://cepa.org/the-evolution-of-russian-hybrid-warfare-introduction/
    "The chaos strategy, and the tactical use of hybrid warfare, was borne out of the perception among the Russian leadership that Russia is locked in a form of great-power competition"

    "It follows that Russia has seeded chaos via asymmetrical means through disinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, business ties, and economic warfare, among other tools."

    "In this context, Russian operations must lead to information and psychological dominance of the enemy. Seeding chaos is, therefore, part of what Russian military strategists refer to as the “initial period of war”
    Every child including the man-child Karlin knew that fighting pandemic requires a concerted action in which all citizens participate. Every defector from the strategy weakens the outcome of the concerted strategy.

    Undermining the resolve to participate in the concerted action started very early in 2020 with covid denial, it is just the flu, lockdowns do not work, masks do not work and make children sick and when vaccines were introduced that vaccines kill or are designed to make you impotent or turn you into G5 network receiving station to receive direct orders from Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab.

    There is no doubt that Russian foreign language media played an important role in spreading anti-covid ideas and memes that eventually paralyzed response to the pandemic. The role of anti-vaxx Russian bots and trolls was already observed during measles epidemic that started in Jewish orthodox communities in the US around 2018.

    English and French language Russian media account for 1200 articles about the Freedom Convoy in Canada which is twice as many what FOX did on the Freedom Convoy.

    A Convoy Revved by Foreign Actors Spreading Lies
    https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/02/21/Convoy-Revved-Foreign-Actors-Spreading-Lies/
    While the legal concern about vaccination and vaccination mandates are legitimate and should be addressed but not when the concerns stem from paranoia and absurd conspiracy theories that are being pumped by Russian diversion.

    The Freedom Convoy riders are not Jehovah Witnesses who have religious reasons against blood transfusion but wackos who believe that government and the whole Western power structure is out there to get them and the only savior is Putin who will protect them from immigrants, BLM and LBGTQ and vaccines.

    That anti-vaxxers become purveyors of Putin propaganda on Ukraine is not a surprise and yours "War makes strange bedfellows of us all." does not apply. It was predictable because it was designed so. And that there are some anti-vaxxers who did not turn into pro Putin twats is just an exception that confirms the rule.

    What is your position on Putin and covid is is also irrelevant because you as it was well established long time before covid and Putin wars are also a twat whose opinions and positions are unprincipled and purely opportunistic adopted for the sake of having a random conversation.

    Replies: @AaronB
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AaronB


    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.
    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it. In 2007 after a bunch of people had finally called out George Bush's Iraq BS a friend of mine told me "you were the only one who knew". I told him that wasn't quite correct. A lot of people knew but I was the only one he knew that opened my big fat mouth which in hindsight I did not have to do.

    This guy bought a ghost town in Owens Valley and makes weird you tube videos but you probably already saw them:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYCAwk5oxFE

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AaronB
  95. Looking forwards to seeing the cockroaches scuttling about my blog writhing in shock and disbelief a week hence.

    •�Agree: sher singh
    •�Troll: Mr. Hack
    •�Replies: @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Man-child is throwing a tantrum.

    Rantrums run through three phases:

    Yelling and screaming. During this initial phase, a child asserts his or her will mostly vocally, often disagreeing with a directive.

    Physical action. This is when the child may push furniture or throw toys, ultimately tiring out and bringing on the final stage.

    Crying, whining and fussing. The more physical part of the tantrum over, bigger histrionics give way to tears and the child can be consoled.

    Replies: @sudden death
    , @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
    But either way, the only 'upside' of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

    The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it's still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
    If I had to guess, I'd say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
    And overall, I still don't see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any 'demographic' wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

    Replies: @sher singh, @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you even yet know that you're the one in shock and disbelief?

    And yes "cockroaches", such as the many bungled invasion apologists here, are stuck in that place with you.

    Replies: @utu
  96. @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Mud seemed less of a problem than in e.g. 1940s, because the mainly column only drives on the smooth asphalt of modern roads.

    On the other hand, this means most territory is not occupied, but it is mostly only roads.

    So, this discussion about cauldrons can apply to cities being circled. But for light infantry, they seem to be able to often walk in front and behind each other's line.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    If you occupy the junctions on highways in a modern country you get to pick the facilities you capture and/or Starve.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Wokechoke

    Yes, it seems like it allows the circling of cities. But then the logistics convoys are easy to defeat behind you, as you have created no wide line to circle enemy forces.


    -

    Anyway, to return to topic of war, rather than trivial discussion about sanctions.

    Here was a discussion on "Twitter" discussing about the battle of Kiev.

    https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500284222598049793

    Replies: @Justvisiting
  97. @utu
    @Dmitry

    "riot police unit" - As if they really believed the official propaganda that the intervention (humanitarian) is about suppressing few neo-nazis who terrorize Ukrainians who actually are Russians and got confused about their true identity by the neo-nazis so a simple action of riot police would suffice to bring those confused Russians to their senses.

    Clearly it indicates that the communication between Kremlin and Russian military is very poor which may stem from the systemic Russian cultural deficiency that goes back to the pre revolutionary Russia.

    I do not think that American army invading Iraq would be carrying tonnes of copies of American constitution in Arabic to help Iraqis to learn about democracy as bringing democracy to Iraq was the ostensive reason for the invasion as that was what Bush and all American officials were talking about. Pentagon is not that stupid. But apparently Russian military command is.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Its plan was for some kind of rapid entrance of forces into the population center, by driving the military very fast on these modern asphalt roads.

    After the forces were in the city (as in Melitopol), then riot police would imprison protesters, while perhaps some Chechen units would follow the list to capture or assassinate the nationalists.

    There are many videos showing destroyed prisoner transport vehicles. So, they are driving prisoner transport vehicles in Ukraine.

    But because the first echelon simply drive fast on a modern highway, they are not occupying territory behind them.

    As a result, there is not a real “Kessel” (cauldron) like in the blitzkrieg concept.

    Ukrainians’ light infantry seems to be walking behind the first echelon, destroying more vulnerable convoys behind (according to a famous T.E. Lawrence tactic).

    Here were around 30 vehicles destroyed in the convoy near Kharkov.

    [MORE]

    During military buildup, I was discussing this with AP in the forum on 17 February.

    I thought Ukrainian forces would be destroyed in deciduous forests without leaves, due to Russian drone-directed artillery that has been introduced in the last 3-4 years. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-175/#comment-5181184

    I believed it would be more like Azerbaijan-Armenia war in October 2020, where Azerbaijan has shown a very modern drone technology imported from Western countries.

    But among other aspects, such level of capability is not simply existing in the Russian army yet. Orlan-10 drone likely doesn’t have optics comparable to those drones used by Azerbaijan, neither number of drones, and with far more sensor-shooter delay.

    So, AP’s view of this Finland 1939-1940/ T.E. Lawrence tactic, was the true description.

    the communication between Kremlin

    There is a situation where Putin seems to believe often propaganda created by employees. You can see this for years with the economic discussions. Often he seems to remember all kinds of numerical data about economy which are wrong (when you check yourself), but probably someone has said for him for their own benefit.

    American army invading Iraq

    America’s military showed incredible organization capacity with this invasion of a country thousands of kilometers and oceans from their home (they only lose 1 tank), but with completely messianic or irrational motive for such a crazy and criminal project, which is demonstrated by having almost no plan for subsequent years after regime-change.

  98. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Looking forwards to seeing the cockroaches scuttling about my blog writhing in shock and disbelief a week hence.

    Replies: @utu, @Yevardian, @Triteleia Laxa

    Man-child is throwing a tantrum.

    Rantrums run through three phases:

    Yelling and screaming. During this initial phase, a child asserts his or her will mostly vocally, often disagreeing with a directive.

    Physical action. This is when the child may push furniture or throw toys, ultimately tiring out and bringing on the final stage.

    Crying, whining and fussing. The more physical part of the tantrum over, bigger histrionics give way to tears and the child can be consoled.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @utu

    lol, Karlin is mad as rabid blind bat right now, cause just several days ago bombastically predicted the fall of Kiev after one night of shooting :)
  99. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Another good one, this time with disco Joe Piscopo and Douglas Macgregor at the 21 minute mark:

    https://omny.fm/shows/the-joe-piscopo-show/7-am-hour-the-joe-piscopo-show-3-3-22

    Going into this show, Joe Piscopo is very unaware of the violent hostility of the Kiev regime towards the rebel Donbass inhabitants - in line with what Petro Poroshenko said in 2014: "Their children will hole up in basements [from our bombs], because they are not able to do anything. This is exactly how we will win this war!"

    https://ainhoaaristizabal.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/httpwp-mep2sum5-6aq/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpZusD92rrg

    Neighborhoods without rebels leveled, hundreds of thousands of refugees going to Russia, many displaced and killed c/o Kiev regime action.

    Good to see that Frank Morano isn't the only WABC Talk Radio NY host offering a diverse overview of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Mr. Hack

    Trying to bring in the propaganda BS of the Donbas war to cover the crimes against humanity that Russia is involved in today within Ukraine is not going to work today Mickey.

    This is Russian aggression in its ugliest nadir. Bombing apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, churches, peoples houses is sadism at its worst. By trying to cover up these crimes by your nauseatingly low life manner you in effect also have the blood of Ukrainians on your hands. You and your fellow travelers are a despicable lot, I hope that you all burn in hell. And don’t try any of your stupid whataboutisms with me, wrong is wrong, and naked Russian aggression in Ukraine is just plain wrong.

    •�LOL: Mikhail
    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    What you say is pure projection.

    The mass Kiev regime murder in Donbass is substantiated by UN connected OSCE observers. More shelling from the regime side than vice versa. More deaths on the rebel side than vice versa.

    Seven years of not implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol calling for Donbass autonomy within Ukraine. Never any sanctions or threat of sanctions put on the Kiev regime.

    The record is clear. You can distort all you want.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP
  100. @Anatoly Karlin
    Looking forwards to seeing the cockroaches scuttling about my blog writhing in shock and disbelief a week hence.

    Replies: @utu, @Yevardian, @Triteleia Laxa

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
    But either way, the only ‘upside’ of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

    The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it’s still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
    If I had to guess, I’d say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
    And overall, I still don’t see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any ‘demographic’ wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

    •�Agree: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @sher singh
    @Yevardian

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wargame-before-the-war-russia-attacks-ukraine/

    Rus has literally gone soft on Ukr for hopes of surrender/reconciliation.
    Marine Corps University admits as much with not a fraction of Rus fire power being used.

    So?
    , @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory
    But then what? Since Russian control over Ukraine doesn't seem to be all that popular with Ukrainians (including the ones in Russian-speaking areas like Charkiv which were supposed to be "liberated" from Nazis or whatever), Russia will have to keep permanent occupation forces and secret police there. Doesn't sound like a situation that will be stable (even if there isn't a full-blown insurgency).
    Russia installing a puppet government in all of Ukraine or annexing large parts of it also isn't something that could ever form a basis for negotiations, so the conflict with the West and the attendant sanctions will persist.
    There really doesn't seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Yevardian

    > пошлость

    Crass.

    He is an internet edgelord but now it really ain't a good time for that.
  101. It didn’t have to be this way.

    Why did it come to this?

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Blinky Bill

    Nicely done pic, but commies are pathetic as usual - hunger genocided the most succesful food producers in Ukraine, then managed to build several big planes instead, while having to import food from capitalists and try to present it as some miraculous achievement worthy of admiring, lol
  102. utu says:
    @AaronB
    @utu

    War makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    I am not anti-vaxx, but I am anti-vaxx mandates and what I regard as the general climate of fear and control that increasingly characterizes our culture and that manifested so disturbingly with Covid.

    I am also anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine - so I certainly don't fit your narrative.

    The far-right admiration for Putin emerging during this invasion makes clear they do not have a principled objection to totalitarianism - they merely want to be the ones doing the oppressing.

    But this has been obvious for some time, in their admiration for China - it is just more glaringly out in the open now, in a more disgusting, cowardly, and inhumane way.

    It is clear now that the far right never truly objected to the control freakery and fear mongering over Covid, they merely objected to the side doing it.

    If Putin was doing it, it would be great. I suppose it was a huge tell, and one that I didn't give adequate attention to, when the same far right that shouted so loudly against covid measures in the US continued to admire China, and did not at all begin criticizing it, despite having the world's most insane totalitarian overreaction to Covid.

    That the alt right is now supporting totalitarianism and bullying in the form of Putin, should not at all surprise an attentive observer - which I admit I have not always been.

    Principled thinkers and writers like Charles Eisenstein and Paul Kingsnorth who are not far right and are also deeply critical of the culture of control and fear surrounding Covid are not pro-Putin - not at all.

    On the other hand, Tritelia Laxa has written quite eloquently against Putin and for Ukraine, yet with a tone of strident arrogance and superiority that betrays a desire to control and dominate reminiscent of Karlin and Chieh, just on the other side.

    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    Even you and I, somehow, appear to be on the same side in this Ukraine thing. Yet I completely oppose you in your fear mongering, hysteria, and control freakery over Covid.

    Trying to link opposition to Russian totalitarianism and bullying to support for domestic Covid totalitarianism and bullying is a rather feeble and transparent play, but also a good example of how we live in confusing and chaotic times where apparent similarities may conceal vast differences, and alliances across lines point to a loss of a central organizing story.

    As far as I can tell, the narrative emerging on the alt right or the far right or whatever you want to call it is that Ukrainians actually really do want to be absorbed into Russia, but the Jewish Zelensky is manipulating their helpless and pathetically weak minds into resisting. Or Jewry as a whole is doing this or something.

    It's absolutely breathtaking in it's boundless contempt for Ukrainians and it's ugly mockery of their sacrifice and courage. It's a view of the world that is just contemptuous of humanity in general. As usual, only the Jews, or America, have agency, and everyone else is just a pawn or a puppet - a view generally promoted by Ron Unz, who finds American or Jewish machinations behind everything Russia or China does that he doesn't like.

    I was starting to think less bad of the alt right, but this war has reminded me again of just how utterly useless they will be in the social renewal that the globe will have to undergo after the breakdown of modernity, and how they are essentially no different than the Woke crowd and a symptom of the modern disease in a very intense form.

    Another faction that seems to largely support Putin is the techno-utopians and materialists - generally, out of a worship of power and bigness and a desire to see bigness and numbers prevail, which validates their understanding of life.

    Well well well, we do live in interesting times....

    I do have to say I am pleasantly surprised by Dmitry not supporting the invasion and generally not being a water carrier for Putin, despite being a materialist.

    Replies: @utu, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Russia did not manufacture idiots. The idiots are homegrown. Russia used them and weaponized them. Covid pandemic was a prefect opportunity for weaponizing idiots. Actually it was the most successful disinformation campaign that Russia (and China) ever conducted:

    https://cepa.org/the-evolution-of-russian-hybrid-warfare-introduction/
    “The chaos strategy, and the tactical use of hybrid warfare, was borne out of the perception among the Russian leadership that Russia is locked in a form of great-power competition”

    “It follows that Russia has seeded chaos via asymmetrical means through disinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, business ties, and economic warfare, among other tools.”

    “In this context, Russian operations must lead to information and psychological dominance of the enemy. Seeding chaos is, therefore, part of what Russian military strategists refer to as the “initial period of war”

    Every child including the man-child Karlin knew that fighting pandemic requires a concerted action in which all citizens participate. Every defector from the strategy weakens the outcome of the concerted strategy.

    Undermining the resolve to participate in the concerted action started very early in 2020 with covid denial, it is just the flu, lockdowns do not work, masks do not work and make children sick and when vaccines were introduced that vaccines kill or are designed to make you impotent or turn you into G5 network receiving station to receive direct orders from Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab.

    There is no doubt that Russian foreign language media played an important role in spreading anti-covid ideas and memes that eventually paralyzed response to the pandemic. The role of anti-vaxx Russian bots and trolls was already observed during measles epidemic that started in Jewish orthodox communities in the US around 2018.

    English and French language Russian media account for 1200 articles about the Freedom Convoy in Canada which is twice as many what FOX did on the Freedom Convoy.

    A Convoy Revved by Foreign Actors Spreading Lies
    https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/02/21/Convoy-Revved-Foreign-Actors-Spreading-Lies/

    While the legal concern about vaccination and vaccination mandates are legitimate and should be addressed but not when the concerns stem from paranoia and absurd conspiracy theories that are being pumped by Russian diversion.

    The Freedom Convoy riders are not Jehovah Witnesses who have religious reasons against blood transfusion but wackos who believe that government and the whole Western power structure is out there to get them and the only savior is Putin who will protect them from immigrants, BLM and LBGTQ and vaccines.

    That anti-vaxxers become purveyors of Putin propaganda on Ukraine is not a surprise and yours “War makes strange bedfellows of us all.” does not apply. It was predictable because it was designed so. And that there are some anti-vaxxers who did not turn into pro Putin twats is just an exception that confirms the rule.

    What is your position on Putin and covid is is also irrelevant because you as it was well established long time before covid and Putin wars are also a twat whose opinions and positions are unprincipled and purely opportunistic adopted for the sake of having a random conversation.

    •�Disagree: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @AaronB
    @utu


    What is your position on Putin and covid is is also irrelevant because you as it was well established long time before covid and Putin wars are also a twat whose opinions and positions are unprincipled and purely opportunistic adopted for the sake of having a random conversation.
    Ok, that I enjoyed :)

    I knew something like this was coming, I just didn't know what form it would take.

    Thanks for the random conversation, utu.
  103. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Trying to bring in the propaganda BS of the Donbas war to cover the crimes against humanity that Russia is involved in today within Ukraine is not going to work today Mickey.

    This is Russian aggression in its ugliest nadir. Bombing apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, churches, peoples houses is sadism at its worst. By trying to cover up these crimes by your nauseatingly low life manner you in effect also have the blood of Ukrainians on your hands. You and your fellow travelers are a despicable lot, I hope that you all burn in hell. And don't try any of your stupid whataboutisms with me, wrong is wrong, and naked Russian aggression in Ukraine is just plain wrong.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    What you say is pure projection.

    The mass Kiev regime murder in Donbass is substantiated by UN connected OSCE observers. More shelling from the regime side than vice versa. More deaths on the rebel side than vice versa.

    Seven years of not implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol calling for Donbass autonomy within Ukraine. Never any sanctions or threat of sanctions put on the Kiev regime.

    The record is clear. You can distort all you want.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon, RadicalCenter
    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Ukraine doesn't need any rebels. The rebels have always been a projection of the kremlin. Face it, you are on the wrong side of history. Supporting Ukrainian genocide is not the way to promote Russian interests in the world. The whole world cannot be wrong and Vladimir Putin and Michael Averko are correct.
    , @AP
    @Mikhail

    Using Donbas war and Kiev's actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia's behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It's actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Anatoly Karlin
  104. @utu
    @AaronB

    Russia did not manufacture idiots. The idiots are homegrown. Russia used them and weaponized them. Covid pandemic was a prefect opportunity for weaponizing idiots. Actually it was the most successful disinformation campaign that Russia (and China) ever conducted:

    https://cepa.org/the-evolution-of-russian-hybrid-warfare-introduction/
    "The chaos strategy, and the tactical use of hybrid warfare, was borne out of the perception among the Russian leadership that Russia is locked in a form of great-power competition"

    "It follows that Russia has seeded chaos via asymmetrical means through disinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, business ties, and economic warfare, among other tools."

    "In this context, Russian operations must lead to information and psychological dominance of the enemy. Seeding chaos is, therefore, part of what Russian military strategists refer to as the “initial period of war”
    Every child including the man-child Karlin knew that fighting pandemic requires a concerted action in which all citizens participate. Every defector from the strategy weakens the outcome of the concerted strategy.

    Undermining the resolve to participate in the concerted action started very early in 2020 with covid denial, it is just the flu, lockdowns do not work, masks do not work and make children sick and when vaccines were introduced that vaccines kill or are designed to make you impotent or turn you into G5 network receiving station to receive direct orders from Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab.

    There is no doubt that Russian foreign language media played an important role in spreading anti-covid ideas and memes that eventually paralyzed response to the pandemic. The role of anti-vaxx Russian bots and trolls was already observed during measles epidemic that started in Jewish orthodox communities in the US around 2018.

    English and French language Russian media account for 1200 articles about the Freedom Convoy in Canada which is twice as many what FOX did on the Freedom Convoy.

    A Convoy Revved by Foreign Actors Spreading Lies
    https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/02/21/Convoy-Revved-Foreign-Actors-Spreading-Lies/
    While the legal concern about vaccination and vaccination mandates are legitimate and should be addressed but not when the concerns stem from paranoia and absurd conspiracy theories that are being pumped by Russian diversion.

    The Freedom Convoy riders are not Jehovah Witnesses who have religious reasons against blood transfusion but wackos who believe that government and the whole Western power structure is out there to get them and the only savior is Putin who will protect them from immigrants, BLM and LBGTQ and vaccines.

    That anti-vaxxers become purveyors of Putin propaganda on Ukraine is not a surprise and yours "War makes strange bedfellows of us all." does not apply. It was predictable because it was designed so. And that there are some anti-vaxxers who did not turn into pro Putin twats is just an exception that confirms the rule.

    What is your position on Putin and covid is is also irrelevant because you as it was well established long time before covid and Putin wars are also a twat whose opinions and positions are unprincipled and purely opportunistic adopted for the sake of having a random conversation.

    Replies: @AaronB

    What is your position on Putin and covid is is also irrelevant because you as it was well established long time before covid and Putin wars are also a twat whose opinions and positions are unprincipled and purely opportunistic adopted for the sake of having a random conversation.

    Ok, that I enjoyed 🙂

    I knew something like this was coming, I just didn’t know what form it would take.

    Thanks for the random conversation, utu.

    •�LOL: songbird
  105. Well these threads have become more or less useless (read: overrun by paid trolls). I guess that’s the price for Mr. Unz’s leniency.

    •�Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    •�Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    Well as I stated before I would be very happy if Ron Unz was to archive this blog and open separate Open Threads on Ukraine (or whichever other topics). The blog is supposedly under my name but I don't even have moderation powers under posts not started by myself.

    Replies: @Beckow, @iffen
  106. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    What you say is pure projection.

    The mass Kiev regime murder in Donbass is substantiated by UN connected OSCE observers. More shelling from the regime side than vice versa. More deaths on the rebel side than vice versa.

    Seven years of not implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol calling for Donbass autonomy within Ukraine. Never any sanctions or threat of sanctions put on the Kiev regime.

    The record is clear. You can distort all you want.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    Ukraine doesn’t need any rebels. The rebels have always been a projection of the kremlin. Face it, you are on the wrong side of history. Supporting Ukrainian genocide is not the way to promote Russian interests in the world. The whole world cannot be wrong and Vladimir Putin and Michael Averko are correct.

  107. AP says:
    @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    What you say is pure projection.

    The mass Kiev regime murder in Donbass is substantiated by UN connected OSCE observers. More shelling from the regime side than vice versa. More deaths on the rebel side than vice versa.

    Seven years of not implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol calling for Donbass autonomy within Ukraine. Never any sanctions or threat of sanctions put on the Kiev regime.

    The record is clear. You can distort all you want.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    Using Donbas war and Kiev’s actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia’s behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It’s actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP


    Using Donbas war and Kiev’s actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia’s behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It’s actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.
    Right back at you, adding that you engage in false equivalency whataboutism.

    The Kiev regime onslaught of rebel Donbass inhabitants happened before the current Russian military action. An intervention of which I've expressed discomfort with - noting an across the board mindset on my part (whether done by the US, Russia, Israel and others) - much unlike your warped idea of ethics.

    The Kiev regime onslaught led to hundreds of thousands of displaced people going to Russia and a death toll in the thousands. The Kiev regime aggression has involved leveling neighborhoods where rebels weren't present. I've my firsthand sources from ethnic Ukrainians in the US, with family ties in rebel Donbass.

    Chechnya had a clear terrorism problem going beyond Chechnya's boundary. Russian forces haven't done a calculated act of terrorism along the lines of what happened at Beslan. Putin hasn't made the same level of an odious comment as did Poroshenko back in 2014 - something I referenced at this thread.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it. This is not a war that Russia started, but it is one that Russia will end, very mercifully and quickly by comparison.

    Replies: @AP, @Philip Owen
  108. Required reading

    The US will fight this war to the last Ukrainian. If the war is lost then an insurgency strategy will be pursued. It was never about Ukraine, it was only about harming Russia. Ukrainians are mere cannon fodder in Washington’s eyes.

    Boggles my mind that Ukrainians do not see this cynical strategy for what it is.

    •�Agree: Yellowface Anon
    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Thulean Friend

    I wholly believe that the Ukrainian Maidan movement in 2014 was a homegrown movement supported by a majority of Ukrainians to show their support for closer ties to the EU. That it just happened to coincide with US or Atlanticist strategies directed towards Russia, was actually beneficial for Ukraine. There is a general pattern within Ukrainian history to tear itself away from Russian domination that you should be aware of by now. This is nothing new that was recently cooked up within Washington think tanks.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @S
    @Thulean Friend


    The US will fight this war to the last Ukrainian. If the war is lost then an insurgency strategy will be pursued. It was never about Ukraine, it was only about harming Russia.
    Quite true.

    A primary objective of the world wars, including the third one now in the works, and each utilizing (a not to be over looked) ever eastward moving 'crisis in Eastern Europe' as their starting flashpoints, is the reduction and ultimate destruction of Russia and the Russian people.

    Ukrainians are mere cannon fodder in Washington’s eyes...Boggles my mind that Ukrainians do not see this cynical strategy for what it is.
    True again.

    While many (myself included) are quite sympathetic towards Ukrainian aspirations for peoplehood, the hard reality is that, in general, the powerful elements of the elites and hangers on who have long held sway in Washington, hate the idea of identity or peoplehood, ie 'nationalism', in particular that of Europeon peoples, including historically, that of their own Anglo-Saxon 'everyday' man and woman in the US.

    This doesn't, as you allude, preclude the breath takingly cynical momentary use of a people's heartfelt nationalism for their own (US) strategic ends, typically giving these desperate and vulnerable people just enough support, but nothing more, to get them into real and serious trouble, before promptly abandoning them, whether it be the case of Poland in 1939, or the case of Ukraine today in 2022.

    In regards to Ukraine, the 'poison pilling' of these nationalist aspirations with the deliberate inclusion and support of the 'Nazi!TM' Azov Battalion and such, so as to 'just in case', both ensure it's being hobbled and crippled in the broader eyes of the world, while simultaneously and very specifically, acting as 'bear bait' for Russia, inviting an attack, should not in any way be seen as mere happenstance.

    The controlled opposition, the modern day pied pipers of Hamelin who offer up a faux hope of an organic peoplehood to their respective American and Russian peoples via their largely empty and symbolic acts, Trump and Putin, the one historically a hyper-Capitalist, the other having been a committed Communist and career KGB officer, each in reality representating different wings of the so called 'progressive' internationalists camp, are amazingly also, irregardless of context, labeled 'Nazis!TM'. (Have you forgotten the principles of doublethink, Winston?)

    Naturally find a way to resist these things and do something positive for your own, but on your terms, and not theirs, if only by your refusal.

    Required reading.
    Thank you!

    Some other 'required reading' under 'More' below. Excerpts (and a link) from a remarkably insightful and prescient mid-19th century US geo-political book which expounds upon the revolutionary global mission and program of the United States. Russia figures in this book quite prominently.

    Though widely distributed and reviewed at the time of it's initial 1853 publication by a major US establishment book publisher, today it is generally unknown, and, has long been memory holed. (Geez, I wonder why?)

    A description (as the book's two authors saw it) of America’s revolutionary global mission and program, and the inherent hostility within it to any type of collectivism, in particular, that of nationalism. ‘Individualism’ is it’s mantra. Italics in original.

    'It is the duty of the American party to combat all European traditions which are incompatible with Americanism; but, above all, that of nationality. To vindicate individualism against nationality, is the office of America. This is, at the same time, the whole force and scope of the revolution; thus, the revolution which arose in and with America, must for ever return to it; and America, which began in revolution, must live in it, and end with it. When the dominion of nationality is crushed, and the sovereignty of the individual is attained, everywhere and everyhow, the missions of the revolution and of America will both be accomplished.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 71

    For it’s remarkable prescience and insight, I cannot recommend reading the mid-19th century New Rome enough. Though a bit dry in places, all the same, it's well worth the few hours time spent.

    Below are a couple of excerpts from the book detailing the future evolution of US/Russian relations. [This is part of the global political situation which is to evolve immediately following a described succesful move by the US/UK to conquer and consolidate control over continental Europe’s center of power (ie specifically Germany) for itself, and having thereby unleashed a ‘world’s war’ upon the Earth in the process.]

    Expected developments in aviation technology, and US domination of the same, is to give the United States the upper hand in the coming great struggle with a ‘despotic’ and 'absolutist' Russia.


    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1F1U0gBMi4M/V2M0KRs3qMI/AAAAAAAAKXo/lBtmDL-9-McBjzk3ZskSmoRuBUqC9RztQCLcB/s1600/The%2Bstandoff%2Bat%2BCheckpoint%2BCharlie%2BSoviet%2Btanks%2Bfacing%2BAmerican%2Btanks%252C%2B1961%2B%25281%2529.jpg
    ‘Thus the lines are drawn. The choirs are marshalled on each wing of the world’s stage, Russia leading the one, the United States the other. Yet the world is too small for both, and the contest must end in the downfall of the one and the victory of the other.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 109


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Valiant_Shield_-_B2_Stealth_bomber_from_Missouri_leads_ariel_formation.jpg/800px-Valiant_Shield_-_B2_Stealth_bomber_from_Missouri_leads_ariel_formation.jpg
    ‘It [air power] will give us the victory over Russian continentalism…American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons, to use our own expressive slang, ‘like a parcel of bricks.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 156


    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/70/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/108/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/156/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/politicalprophec00goeb/page/n3/mode/2up
  109. @nickels
    Russia will have to hit NATO, that much is clear.

    I say start by taking out the missiles in Poland-bait the US warships to come across the Atlantic.

    Sink them with one hypersonic each.

    Tactical nuclear strike on DC.

    No one in the US will go to war over nuking DC-they will be totally elated.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Yellowface Anon

    My prediction (unlikely right now): blitzkrieg in the Baltics, and then strikes on NATO and American assets in Europe.

    US imposes the draft and is bogged down in Europe (like ‘Nam).

    China is urged to take on Taiwan + 1st Island Chain and take out the US Fleets with carrier killers.

    Strategic nuclear strikes in Western Europe and America that take out as many military, political and civilian targets as possible, killing 2/3 of the population, and that will ensure capitulation, even at the cost of 1/3 population loss in Russia & China, which is more survivable.

    And finally trials on what’s left of American leadership.

    If Putin is really the 4D chessmaster he will be deciding on this right now – Russian Foreign Ministry is saying Germany is insufficiently denazified, and the best sign we are right will be him saying the US government is fascist and must be eliminated. I wish this is wrong.

    •�LOL: sher singh
    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    Don't worry, it is wrong.
    , @sher singh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Hikkikomoris don't make good strategic analysts.
  110. @Aedib
    @German_reader

    C’mon! Be truthful, man. I saw CNN gloating about several Russian Opera singers been fired in the USA. I can pass you this example of the Western Orwellian hysteria:


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/the-show-cant-go-on-russian-arts-cancelled-worldwide#:~:text=Vladimir%20Putin's%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20has%20prompted%20responses%20from%20the,decisions%20taken%20by%20the%20Kremlin.

    Also, Russians will be banned from Costa del Sol next summer and Nikita Mazepin banned from F1 (I tend to agree with this decision because he always was an awful racer). There are several other examples.
    You are denying what my eyes are seeing.Try to avoid the double-think that Western MinTrue is pumping.
    PD: Again; Putin and the siloviky are probably pleased to see this anti-Russian hysteria in the West. NATO regimes went full IngSoc mode.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    This should be the sole reason to blindly support Putin. A middle-finger to the ignorant Devils. Be the sycophants they think all of you are.

    That is why I wholeheartedly support whatever Xi does.

  111. @Thulean Friend
    Required reading

    https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1500203752187437061

    The US will fight this war to the last Ukrainian. If the war is lost then an insurgency strategy will be pursued. It was never about Ukraine, it was only about harming Russia. Ukrainians are mere cannon fodder in Washington's eyes.

    Boggles my mind that Ukrainians do not see this cynical strategy for what it is.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @S

    I wholly believe that the Ukrainian Maidan movement in 2014 was a homegrown movement supported by a majority of Ukrainians to show their support for closer ties to the EU. That it just happened to coincide with US or Atlanticist strategies directed towards Russia, was actually beneficial for Ukraine. There is a general pattern within Ukrainian history to tear itself away from Russian domination that you should be aware of by now. This is nothing new that was recently cooked up within Washington think tanks.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    You don't exclude homegrown movements being co-opted by the likes of Nuland, which proves both accounts right.

    (Somewhat like how Russians groomed and weaponized Balkan and Slavic nationalism against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, which backfired horribly at the end)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  112. @Yellowface Anon
    @nickels

    My prediction (unlikely right now): blitzkrieg in the Baltics, and then strikes on NATO and American assets in Europe.

    US imposes the draft and is bogged down in Europe (like 'Nam).

    China is urged to take on Taiwan + 1st Island Chain and take out the US Fleets with carrier killers.

    Strategic nuclear strikes in Western Europe and America that take out as many military, political and civilian targets as possible, killing 2/3 of the population, and that will ensure capitulation, even at the cost of 1/3 population loss in Russia & China, which is more survivable.

    And finally trials on what's left of American leadership.

    If Putin is really the 4D chessmaster he will be deciding on this right now - Russian Foreign Ministry is saying Germany is insufficiently denazified, and the best sign we are right will be him saying the US government is fascist and must be eliminated. I wish this is wrong.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sher singh

    Don’t worry, it is wrong.

  113. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @AP
    @Mikhail

    Using Donbas war and Kiev's actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia's behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It's actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Anatoly Karlin

    Using Donbas war and Kiev’s actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia’s behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It’s actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.

    Right back at you, adding that you engage in false equivalency whataboutism.

    The Kiev regime onslaught of rebel Donbass inhabitants happened before the current Russian military action. An intervention of which I’ve expressed discomfort with – noting an across the board mindset on my part (whether done by the US, Russia, Israel and others) – much unlike your warped idea of ethics.

    The Kiev regime onslaught led to hundreds of thousands of displaced people going to Russia and a death toll in the thousands. The Kiev regime aggression has involved leveling neighborhoods where rebels weren’t present. I’ve my firsthand sources from ethnic Ukrainians in the US, with family ties in rebel Donbass.

    Chechnya had a clear terrorism problem going beyond Chechnya’s boundary. Russian forces haven’t done a calculated act of terrorism along the lines of what happened at Beslan. Putin hasn’t made the same level of an odious comment as did Poroshenko back in 2014 – something I referenced at this thread.

  114. This should be a good listen:

  115. @Mr. Hack
    @Thulean Friend

    I wholly believe that the Ukrainian Maidan movement in 2014 was a homegrown movement supported by a majority of Ukrainians to show their support for closer ties to the EU. That it just happened to coincide with US or Atlanticist strategies directed towards Russia, was actually beneficial for Ukraine. There is a general pattern within Ukrainian history to tear itself away from Russian domination that you should be aware of by now. This is nothing new that was recently cooked up within Washington think tanks.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    You don’t exclude homegrown movements being co-opted by the likes of Nuland, which proves both accounts right.

    (Somewhat like how Russians groomed and weaponized Balkan and Slavic nationalism against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, which backfired horribly at the end)

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    No, I don't think that the Ukrainian movement in Ukraine has been coopted by the US or Nuland. There is a distinct difference in policy going on now, where the West has refused to go ahead and create a no fly zone over Ukraine. Zelensky has clearly pointed his finger at the US accusing it of being cowardly and such for its inability to do so. If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.

    Replies: @Yevardian
  116. @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Man-child is throwing a tantrum.

    Rantrums run through three phases:

    Yelling and screaming. During this initial phase, a child asserts his or her will mostly vocally, often disagreeing with a directive.

    Physical action. This is when the child may push furniture or throw toys, ultimately tiring out and bringing on the final stage.

    Crying, whining and fussing. The more physical part of the tantrum over, bigger histrionics give way to tears and the child can be consoled.

    Replies: @sudden death

    lol, Karlin is mad as rabid blind bat right now, cause just several days ago bombastically predicted the fall of Kiev after one night of shooting 🙂

    •�Agree: utu, Mr. Hack
  117. Averko, I understand how Ukraine has been puppetized by NATO & the legitimate security concerns of Russia, but how does an invasion that violates Ukrainian territorial integrity (outside of Donbas & Crimea) be legitimate, outside of Putin’s imperial dreams? Even if the ship might have sailed after 2014, Finlandization is still a far more peaceful goal than wholesale invasion.

    What should have been done is:
    – Ukraine recognition of Crimea
    – Federalization of Ukraine on the model of Russian local governance
    – No EU membership or NATO troops, no Russian troops on Ukrainian soil
    – Denazification of the Ukrainian security apparatus in the strict sense (firing all Azov Battalion members and any far-right bureaucrats), Donbas militias standing down
    – Renegotiated Minsk agreement

    Use of force in Donbas and Ukraine has never been necessary to achieve Russian strategic goals outside of Putin’s imperialist dreams. Keeping troops on the border works much better than invasion.

    Anything I said that is supportive of Russian imperialism is after the fact, not from my principles. Russian imperialism has hurt the Qing (Treaty of Aigun).

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Yellowface Anon

    Over the past 24 hours, what I proposed relative to this US political establishment handshakeworthy Putin/Russia bashing prose that will get you on CNN, PBS and NPR:

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/03/how-to-get-to-a-place-of-peace-for-ukraine/

    - Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    - Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    - Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn't sacrifice the security of another country.

    - In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they've utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Agree or disagree with Putin's call, he gave seven years to see the Minsk Protocol implemented. Nothing! His call for a new security arrangement dissed since 2007.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  118. @German_reader
    @Aedib

    Apparently that's about a single supermarket in North-Rhine-Westphalia. Police have classified it as a politically motivated crime and are investigating.
    Kristallnacht...lol. About as credible as all those "Nazis" in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Aedib, @for-the-record

    About as credible as all those “Nazis” in Ukraine.

    How Ukraine’s Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia

    “While Western media deploys Volodymyr Zelensky’s Jewish heritage to refute accusations of Nazi influence in Ukraine, the president has ceded to neo-Nazi forces and now depends on them as front line fighters.”

    https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @for-the-record

    After WW II, the Banderite hierarchy de-emphasized anti-Polish and anti-Jewish activity with hyping a bigoted anti-Russian agenda.

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-coverage-update-what-western-mass-media-downplays/
  119. @Anatoly Karlin
    Looking forwards to seeing the cockroaches scuttling about my blog writhing in shock and disbelief a week hence.

    Replies: @utu, @Yevardian, @Triteleia Laxa

    Do you even yet know that you’re the one in shock and disbelief?

    And yes “cockroaches”, such as the many bungled invasion apologists here, are stuck in that place with you.

    •�Replies: @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Karlin is Hutu and the rest are Tutsi cockroaches. Perhaps Russian army with their level of poor training and discipline would be more suited to use machetes.
  120. @Thulean Friend
    Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly "restricted". That won't hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created 'Erebrus' CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia's security agencies have tried to implement "technological sovereignty" but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:


    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

    We all know which country he hints at.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Couldn’t SMIC or another fab in China make it?

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Not Raul

    Those already sanctioned by the US can help out, if they never expect sanctions from the US to be lifted.
  121. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Yellowface Anon
    Averko, I understand how Ukraine has been puppetized by NATO & the legitimate security concerns of Russia, but how does an invasion that violates Ukrainian territorial integrity (outside of Donbas & Crimea) be legitimate, outside of Putin's imperial dreams? Even if the ship might have sailed after 2014, Finlandization is still a far more peaceful goal than wholesale invasion.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21h_2RyQKRU

    What should have been done is:
    - Ukraine recognition of Crimea
    - Federalization of Ukraine on the model of Russian local governance
    - No EU membership or NATO troops, no Russian troops on Ukrainian soil
    - Denazification of the Ukrainian security apparatus in the strict sense (firing all Azov Battalion members and any far-right bureaucrats), Donbas militias standing down
    - Renegotiated Minsk agreement

    Use of force in Donbas and Ukraine has never been necessary to achieve Russian strategic goals outside of Putin's imperialist dreams. Keeping troops on the border works much better than invasion.

    Anything I said that is supportive of Russian imperialism is after the fact, not from my principles. Russian imperialism has hurt the Qing (Treaty of Aigun).

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Over the past 24 hours, what I proposed relative to this US political establishment handshakeworthy Putin/Russia bashing prose that will get you on CNN, PBS and NPR:

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/03/how-to-get-to-a-place-of-peace-for-ukraine/

    – Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    – Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    – Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn’t sacrifice the security of another country.

    – In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they’ve utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Agree or disagree with Putin’s call, he gave seven years to see the Minsk Protocol implemented. Nothing! His call for a new security arrangement dissed since 2007.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    I agree with every point you make in this post and goes further with the entire Novorossiya given local autonomy on the oblast level.

    But as AK understands it, Putin is going for wholesale annexation and the negation of Ukrainian national identity, which I reject and hopefully you won't approve of.

    Banderites can be a party like the far-right in France and Germany, and even a part of the ruling coalition, but not having a militia on the Hezbollah model. Leave the use of force to the (reduced) armed or security apparatus of Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians need to (re)learn the balancing act that allowed Finland to thrive in Cold War.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
  122. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    I notice so far a lack of sanctions against oligarchs. It is a long-standing US policy to not go hard after oligarchs. The idea has probably always been to keep them as an option. There is even a mandated list of oligarchs (Section 241 of the Countering Russian Influence in Europe and Eurasia Act, classified annex listing details on each oligarch) to make sure the oligarchs know there is a sword hanging over their heads. So far, the only sanctioned oligarch is an Uzbek billionaire. His yacht and jet were sanctioned but there is a huge exemption in the sanctions for doing business with his companies including Norilsk Nickel.

    US politicians like Lindsey Graham are really raising the stakes by calling for “Brutus” to step up while the US government maintains a sword over the heads of all the oligarchs. People who dismiss the stakes are high enough to warrant the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia aren’t facing what they don’t want to see.

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    US politicians like Lindsey Graham are really raising the stakes by calling for “Brutus” to step up while the US government maintains a sword over the heads of all the oligarchs.
    Neocon weasel extraordinaire, he did get clipped a bit among some of his establishment peers for saying such.
  123. @for-the-record
    @German_reader

    About as credible as all those “Nazis” in Ukraine.

    How Ukraine’s Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia

    "While Western media deploys Volodymyr Zelensky’s Jewish heritage to refute accusations of Nazi influence in Ukraine, the president has ceded to neo-Nazi forces and now depends on them as front line fighters."

    https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/

    Replies: @Mikhail

    After WW II, the Banderite hierarchy de-emphasized anti-Polish and anti-Jewish activity with hyping a bigoted anti-Russian agenda.

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-coverage-update-what-western-mass-media-downplays/

  124. @china-russia-all-the-way
    I notice so far a lack of sanctions against oligarchs. It is a long-standing US policy to not go hard after oligarchs. The idea has probably always been to keep them as an option. There is even a mandated list of oligarchs (Section 241 of the Countering Russian Influence in Europe and Eurasia Act, classified annex listing details on each oligarch) to make sure the oligarchs know there is a sword hanging over their heads. So far, the only sanctioned oligarch is an Uzbek billionaire. His yacht and jet were sanctioned but there is a huge exemption in the sanctions for doing business with his companies including Norilsk Nickel.

    US politicians like Lindsey Graham are really raising the stakes by calling for "Brutus" to step up while the US government maintains a sword over the heads of all the oligarchs. People who dismiss the stakes are high enough to warrant the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia aren't facing what they don't want to see.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    US politicians like Lindsey Graham are really raising the stakes by calling for “Brutus” to step up while the US government maintains a sword over the heads of all the oligarchs.

    Neocon weasel extraordinaire, he did get clipped a bit among some of his establishment peers for saying such.

  125. @nickels
    Morgenthau 2.0 incoming, self inflict.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM4AstNRbmI

    Replies: @Joe Paluka

    If Russia cuts off gas supplies to Germany, it’s back to making Hitler gas from coal for them.

  126. Yep, just as I suspected

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-insurgency/

    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @Svidomyatheart


    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that's all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.


    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Svidomyatheart

    All of you are right in raising Bandera's portrait high. In his time there were Poles, Russians and Jews in Ukraine, all of them essentially Whites of Central-Eastern European culture, and on the same level of sophistication as Ukrainians. Now American wokes want your country to massively import Arab and African rabble, and Russia wants to massively import Caucasian & Central Asian rabble after subjugating your land. It will be worse either way forward. If you can defend your country, you should stand at the point of cultural privilege. Don't let Bandera roll in his grave. Never import what your country can't ingest.
  127. @Mikhail
    @Yellowface Anon

    Over the past 24 hours, what I proposed relative to this US political establishment handshakeworthy Putin/Russia bashing prose that will get you on CNN, PBS and NPR:

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/03/how-to-get-to-a-place-of-peace-for-ukraine/

    - Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    - Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    - Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn't sacrifice the security of another country.

    - In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they've utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Agree or disagree with Putin's call, he gave seven years to see the Minsk Protocol implemented. Nothing! His call for a new security arrangement dissed since 2007.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I agree with every point you make in this post and goes further with the entire Novorossiya given local autonomy on the oblast level.

    But as AK understands it, Putin is going for wholesale annexation and the negation of Ukrainian national identity, which I reject and hopefully you won’t approve of.

    Banderites can be a party like the far-right in France and Germany, and even a part of the ruling coalition, but not having a militia on the Hezbollah model. Leave the use of force to the (reduced) armed or security apparatus of Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians need to (re)learn the balancing act that allowed Finland to thrive in Cold War.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Yellowface Anon


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNLaApTWUAETegp.jpg
  128. @Not Raul
    @Thulean Friend


    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.
    Couldn’t SMIC or another fab in China make it?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Those already sanctioned by the US can help out, if they never expect sanctions from the US to be lifted.

    •�Agree: Not Raul
  129. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
    But either way, the only 'upside' of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

    The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it's still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
    If I had to guess, I'd say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
    And overall, I still don't see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any 'demographic' wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

    Replies: @sher singh, @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wargame-before-the-war-russia-attacks-ukraine/

    Rus has literally gone soft on Ukr for hopes of surrender/reconciliation.
    Marine Corps University admits as much with not a fraction of Rus fire power being used.

    So?

  130. @Yellowface Anon
    @nickels

    My prediction (unlikely right now): blitzkrieg in the Baltics, and then strikes on NATO and American assets in Europe.

    US imposes the draft and is bogged down in Europe (like 'Nam).

    China is urged to take on Taiwan + 1st Island Chain and take out the US Fleets with carrier killers.

    Strategic nuclear strikes in Western Europe and America that take out as many military, political and civilian targets as possible, killing 2/3 of the population, and that will ensure capitulation, even at the cost of 1/3 population loss in Russia & China, which is more survivable.

    And finally trials on what's left of American leadership.

    If Putin is really the 4D chessmaster he will be deciding on this right now - Russian Foreign Ministry is saying Germany is insufficiently denazified, and the best sign we are right will be him saying the US government is fascist and must be eliminated. I wish this is wrong.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sher singh

    Hikkikomoris don’t make good strategic analysts.

  131. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
    But either way, the only 'upside' of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

    The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it's still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
    If I had to guess, I'd say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
    And overall, I still don't see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any 'demographic' wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

    Replies: @sher singh, @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory

    But then what? Since Russian control over Ukraine doesn’t seem to be all that popular with Ukrainians (including the ones in Russian-speaking areas like Charkiv which were supposed to be “liberated” from Nazis or whatever), Russia will have to keep permanent occupation forces and secret police there. Doesn’t sound like a situation that will be stable (even if there isn’t a full-blown insurgency).
    Russia installing a puppet government in all of Ukraine or annexing large parts of it also isn’t something that could ever form a basis for negotiations, so the conflict with the West and the attendant sanctions will persist.
    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).

    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    We will see. There's pent up Russian chauvinism in the Black Sea coast. The there's always a state secret police. Also the enticement of a German visa etc might loden that Nationalist Ukrainian zeal.
    , @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon
  132. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you even yet know that you're the one in shock and disbelief?

    And yes "cockroaches", such as the many bungled invasion apologists here, are stuck in that place with you.

    Replies: @utu

    Karlin is Hutu and the rest are Tutsi cockroaches. Perhaps Russian army with their level of poor training and discipline would be more suited to use machetes.

  133. @Svidomyatheart
    Yep, just as I suspected

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-insurgency/

    They've already essentially abandoned us...only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia


    https://i.imgur.com/WfMhZxw.png

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yellowface Anon

    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia

    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that’s all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.

    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020’s Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren’t involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the ‘Western’ point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don’t see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don’t to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    •�Thanks: Svidomyatheart
    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country
    I think that's too cynical, there probably really was the idea that Ukraine could be flipped over to the Atlantic camp, thereby boxing Russia in and undermining Russia's geopolitical situation. Obviously this still was a pretty terrible idea (not that I think Russia has any moral right to keep Ukraine under her thumb, but it was a mistake to underestimate how far Russia would be willing to go to prevent an Atlanticist Ukraine...in retrospect it would have been better to push Ukraine towards implementing the Minsk agreements, which weren't ideal from an Ukrainian national perspective, but still preferable to what's now going on).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @for-the-record
    , @sher singh
    @Yevardian

    WE'RE WHITE THEY HAVE TO CARE ABOUT US,
    WE'RE NOT BROWN LIKE YOU ARMENIANS!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

    interesting video, Rus didn't have supply dumps in Ukr already.
    Otherwise, things proceed as planned tbh, ground taken fastish.
    , @silviosilver
    @Yevardian


    but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap
    I don't see how Thucydides Trap logic applies to this case. That concept was formulated to describe a specific set of circumstances; it's not a catch-all term for any situation in which the aggressor felt they "had to" go to war.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Svidomyatheart
    @Yevardian

    I know US doesnt care they dont even care that much about their own unless its a minority or if you're Jewish.

    The original idea wasnt even NATO, just EU. To get to levels of Croatia or something.


    And soon its going to take another 2 generations to rebuild.

    I shouldnt have to jump through endless hoops just to be able to afford decent food. Hell, if even Somalis from across the contient can cash in on the endless gibs(no, thats not what we were asking for but the ability to simply work in EU)
  134. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory
    But then what? Since Russian control over Ukraine doesn't seem to be all that popular with Ukrainians (including the ones in Russian-speaking areas like Charkiv which were supposed to be "liberated" from Nazis or whatever), Russia will have to keep permanent occupation forces and secret police there. Doesn't sound like a situation that will be stable (even if there isn't a full-blown insurgency).
    Russia installing a puppet government in all of Ukraine or annexing large parts of it also isn't something that could ever form a basis for negotiations, so the conflict with the West and the attendant sanctions will persist.
    There really doesn't seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian

    We will see. There’s pent up Russian chauvinism in the Black Sea coast. The there’s always a state secret police. Also the enticement of a German visa etc might loden that Nationalist Ukrainian zeal.

  135. @AaronB
    @utu

    War makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    I am not anti-vaxx, but I am anti-vaxx mandates and what I regard as the general climate of fear and control that increasingly characterizes our culture and that manifested so disturbingly with Covid.

    I am also anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine - so I certainly don't fit your narrative.

    The far-right admiration for Putin emerging during this invasion makes clear they do not have a principled objection to totalitarianism - they merely want to be the ones doing the oppressing.

    But this has been obvious for some time, in their admiration for China - it is just more glaringly out in the open now, in a more disgusting, cowardly, and inhumane way.

    It is clear now that the far right never truly objected to the control freakery and fear mongering over Covid, they merely objected to the side doing it.

    If Putin was doing it, it would be great. I suppose it was a huge tell, and one that I didn't give adequate attention to, when the same far right that shouted so loudly against covid measures in the US continued to admire China, and did not at all begin criticizing it, despite having the world's most insane totalitarian overreaction to Covid.

    That the alt right is now supporting totalitarianism and bullying in the form of Putin, should not at all surprise an attentive observer - which I admit I have not always been.

    Principled thinkers and writers like Charles Eisenstein and Paul Kingsnorth who are not far right and are also deeply critical of the culture of control and fear surrounding Covid are not pro-Putin - not at all.

    On the other hand, Tritelia Laxa has written quite eloquently against Putin and for Ukraine, yet with a tone of strident arrogance and superiority that betrays a desire to control and dominate reminiscent of Karlin and Chieh, just on the other side.

    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    Even you and I, somehow, appear to be on the same side in this Ukraine thing. Yet I completely oppose you in your fear mongering, hysteria, and control freakery over Covid.

    Trying to link opposition to Russian totalitarianism and bullying to support for domestic Covid totalitarianism and bullying is a rather feeble and transparent play, but also a good example of how we live in confusing and chaotic times where apparent similarities may conceal vast differences, and alliances across lines point to a loss of a central organizing story.

    As far as I can tell, the narrative emerging on the alt right or the far right or whatever you want to call it is that Ukrainians actually really do want to be absorbed into Russia, but the Jewish Zelensky is manipulating their helpless and pathetically weak minds into resisting. Or Jewry as a whole is doing this or something.

    It's absolutely breathtaking in it's boundless contempt for Ukrainians and it's ugly mockery of their sacrifice and courage. It's a view of the world that is just contemptuous of humanity in general. As usual, only the Jews, or America, have agency, and everyone else is just a pawn or a puppet - a view generally promoted by Ron Unz, who finds American or Jewish machinations behind everything Russia or China does that he doesn't like.

    I was starting to think less bad of the alt right, but this war has reminded me again of just how utterly useless they will be in the social renewal that the globe will have to undergo after the breakdown of modernity, and how they are essentially no different than the Woke crowd and a symptom of the modern disease in a very intense form.

    Another faction that seems to largely support Putin is the techno-utopians and materialists - generally, out of a worship of power and bigness and a desire to see bigness and numbers prevail, which validates their understanding of life.

    Well well well, we do live in interesting times....

    I do have to say I am pleasantly surprised by Dmitry not supporting the invasion and generally not being a water carrier for Putin, despite being a materialist.

    Replies: @utu, @Emil Nikola Richard

    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.

    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it. In 2007 after a bunch of people had finally called out George Bush’s Iraq BS a friend of mine told me “you were the only one who knew”. I told him that wasn’t quite correct. A lot of people knew but I was the only one he knew that opened my big fat mouth which in hindsight I did not have to do.

    This guy bought a ghost town in Owens Valley and makes weird you tube videos but you probably already saw them:

    •�Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it.
    I happened to be reading through this thread, and I'd say my position is closer to Yevardian's than anyone else, though I'm much more sympathetic to Putin, given all the endless provocations against Russia.

    Here are a couple of paragraphs from a long article I'm writing, along with the relevant Youtube clip, which I've very highly recommend watching:

    During his long and distinguished career at the CIA, former analyst Ray McGovern had run the Soviet Policy Branch and also served as the Presidential Briefer, so under different circumstances he or someone like him would would currently be advising President Joe Biden. Instead, a few days ago he joined Mearsheimer in presenting his views in a video discussion hosted by the Committee for the Republic. Both noted experts agreed that Putin had been pushed beyond all reasonable limits, provoking the invasion.

    A much more important example was highlighted by Ray McGovern in his March 3nd presentation. During last June’s Biden-Putin summit, our president told the Russian leader that we fully understood the terrible pressure he was facing from the Chinese, and his fear of their military threat. Such statements must have been regarded as sheer lunacy by the Russian national security leadership, and a strong sign of the completely delusional nature of the American foreign policy establishment they faced. Since such bizarre beliefs might prompt America to take actions detrimental to Russian interests, Putin attempted to puncture this bubble of unreality by organizing a joint public statement with his close Chinese counterpart affirming that their relationship was “more than an alliance.”
    https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc?t=2630

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @AaronB
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I couldn't agree with you more.

    The idea that you must always pick a side is one of the most idiotic ones in existence, but unfortunately deeply embedded in people's psychology.

    For instance, it seems obvious to me that all the major players today, the US, Russia, China, and Europe are deeply corrupted by different versions of the same ideology.

    The idiocy of thinking any of these entities is a genuine alternative to the other drives me to the brink of despair.

    As for Ron Unz, his essays and comments, and his editorial policy, seem to me to make very clear that he has in general picked a side on the supposed political divisions of our time, and in a very extreme and even comical way (he utterly demonizes and dehumanizes the side he opposes) - and I regard him and his website as being classic extreme kneejerk side-takers.

    That being said, sometimes taking a side is clear and obvious - as in between Russia and Ukraine.

    I generally believe that people shouldn't be demonized but one must take sides against thought-systems and values, so in that sense taking sides is necessary.

    Thanks for the videos - I had not previously seen them!
  136. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @Svidomyatheart


    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that's all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.


    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart

    Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country

    I think that’s too cynical, there probably really was the idea that Ukraine could be flipped over to the Atlantic camp, thereby boxing Russia in and undermining Russia’s geopolitical situation. Obviously this still was a pretty terrible idea (not that I think Russia has any moral right to keep Ukraine under her thumb, but it was a mistake to underestimate how far Russia would be willing to go to prevent an Atlanticist Ukraine…in retrospect it would have been better to push Ukraine towards implementing the Minsk agreements, which weren’t ideal from an Ukrainian national perspective, but still preferable to what’s now going on).

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @German_reader

    Small countries need to be realistic about the hand they've been dealt, Finland has been an admirable example in this respect.
    Countries on the borderland just have to hypercautious for the sake of their own existence. Like, Armenia existed in a similar borderland situation to Ukraine now between the Romans and Sassanids for hundreds of years, any small violation of its perceived neutrality was the basis for dozens of wars, invariably much of them fought over its own soil.

    Little countries with delusions of grandeur can only become geopolitically 'powerful' by destabilising their entire region, see Israel.
    , @for-the-record
    @German_reader

    I think that’s too cynical

    What it is, is déjà vu:

    The Office of Policy Coordination and the CIA’s Office of Special Operations entered battle on this field. Agents were briefed and given false papers and sent on missions throughout the Eastern bloc, including into the USSR itself, where for several years after the war a Ukrainian resistance movement continued to fight the Red Army. This was a major and fascinating undertaking. The Ukraine was an acknowledged part of the USSR, so the operations were tantamount to war. It demonstrated the determination with which the United States entered the cold war. It also demonstrated a cold ruthlessness: the Ukrainian resistance had no hope of winning unless America was prepared to go to war on its behalf. Since America was not prepared to go to war, America was in effect encouraging Ukrainians to go to their deaths.

    John Ranelagh, Agency: The Rise and Decline of the CIA, 1986, p. 137.
  137. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory
    But then what? Since Russian control over Ukraine doesn't seem to be all that popular with Ukrainians (including the ones in Russian-speaking areas like Charkiv which were supposed to be "liberated" from Nazis or whatever), Russia will have to keep permanent occupation forces and secret police there. Doesn't sound like a situation that will be stable (even if there isn't a full-blown insurgency).
    Russia installing a puppet government in all of Ukraine or annexing large parts of it also isn't something that could ever form a basis for negotiations, so the conflict with the West and the attendant sanctions will persist.
    There really doesn't seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian

    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).

    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don’t disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there’s simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That’s why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    These apocalyptic scenarios seem exaggerated to me, and tbh I'm starting to really resent Russians for their "If that would happen, we'd rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons" bs.
    That being said, ideally there would be some attempt for a diplomatic solution (treaty about Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of Crimea, maybe Donbass too). But what's not acceptable from a Western or Ukrainian perspective is "demilitarization" and "denazification" of all of Ukraine, and Putin seems to be unwilling to go for anything less...so in a sense it's his fault too, if this becomes an all-or-nothing contest.

    Replies: @Adept
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Yevardian

    Putin has mostly wanted outright annexation regardless of how Ukrainians feel about that, and eventual annihilation of Ukrainian identity - more moderate demands are what Lavrov has been thinking. Russia will push on and even mobilize to get Ukraine under complete control.

    Isolation plays into the hand of Russian nationalists who have been pushing for a full-spectrum decoupling, like Iran, and they get it now. And you underestimate Russia's stability in that state - the Navalnyites are noise that is mostly emigrating like liberal Iranians after the revolution and those remain will either be loyalists or conformists. Iran has survived for 4 decades. So Americanization will be borderline impossible even when Putin's gone.

    No one benefits from this - this is Act 2 of the fall of industrial capitalism after the COVID agenda.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Yevardian, @AaronB, @AP
    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    1990s collapse
    There will not be return of the 1990s economic chaos, as this relates to transitioning from command economy to the mafia-state-capture capitalism economy.

    There is now this quasi-capitalist economy in Russia and the organization of the country has stabilized. Sanctions will not change this.

    But sanctions will create a lot of extra inflation in certain products (which is bad for consumers) and probably strengthen negative trends of the last 30 years in terms of state capture and so on.

    -

    Sanctions might contribute more of a parallel "import substitute" economy in consumer products, which could appear increasingly similar to Israel's economy.

    Israel allows import cartels, to make Western imports unacceptably expensive. As a result, it develops this parallel "import substitute" economy for many consumer products.

    So, if you buy a phone charger in Israel, or some ballpoint pens and socks, the product can often say "made in Israel". All over Israel, there are little factories, producing these kind of products, which a normal country would import.

    What's the result? Higher prices of consumer products.

    There is one proviso for using as analogy for what can happen to Russia though - which is China. China is not applying sanctions against Russia.

    Therefore the cheap Chinese consumer products will continue to flood Russia. Socks and phone chargers from China, will not be sanctioned. But if China has an increasingly captive market, prices may be higher than if it was a non-captive market.

    totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu

    Most of Russia is being asset-stripped for decades. TikTok is more scary than any Americanization, and this happens anyway.

    Population is being replaced with people from postsoviet countries only, as these are the one who do not have a better options. No, significant Indians or Africans will immigrate to Russia, unless it would become a wealthy country for normal citizens (there are not any of the incentives for attracting those immigrants of Western countries, of high salaries and high welfare).
    , @LondonBob
    @Yevardian

    America has blown up the dollar system in spectacular style, this is a massive loss for the US. No one in Europe will be thankful when the horrific economic consequences of the whole Ukrainian adventure are being felt.
    , @iffen
    @Yevardian

    Only the US ultimately benefits from this,

    Elephants, mice, trampling, etc.
    , @Pharmakon
    @Yevardian


    there’s simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory
    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won't be a decisive Russian victory?

    Thanks!

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  138. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
    But either way, the only 'upside' of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

    The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it's still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
    If I had to guess, I'd say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
    And overall, I still don't see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any 'demographic' wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

    Replies: @sher singh, @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

    > пошлость

    Crass.

    He is an internet edgelord but now it really ain’t a good time for that.

  139. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AaronB


    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.
    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it. In 2007 after a bunch of people had finally called out George Bush's Iraq BS a friend of mine told me "you were the only one who knew". I told him that wasn't quite correct. A lot of people knew but I was the only one he knew that opened my big fat mouth which in hindsight I did not have to do.

    This guy bought a ghost town in Owens Valley and makes weird you tube videos but you probably already saw them:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYCAwk5oxFE

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AaronB

    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it.

    I happened to be reading through this thread, and I’d say my position is closer to Yevardian’s than anyone else, though I’m much more sympathetic to Putin, given all the endless provocations against Russia.

    Here are a couple of paragraphs from a long article I’m writing, along with the relevant Youtube clip, which I’ve very highly recommend watching:

    During his long and distinguished career at the CIA, former analyst Ray McGovern had run the Soviet Policy Branch and also served as the Presidential Briefer, so under different circumstances he or someone like him would would currently be advising President Joe Biden. Instead, a few days ago he joined Mearsheimer in presenting his views in a video discussion hosted by the Committee for the Republic. Both noted experts agreed that Putin had been pushed beyond all reasonable limits, provoking the invasion.

    A much more important example was highlighted by Ray McGovern in his March 3nd presentation. During last June’s Biden-Putin summit, our president told the Russian leader that we fully understood the terrible pressure he was facing from the Chinese, and his fear of their military threat. Such statements must have been regarded as sheer lunacy by the Russian national security leadership, and a strong sign of the completely delusional nature of the American foreign policy establishment they faced. Since such bizarre beliefs might prompt America to take actions detrimental to Russian interests, Putin attempted to puncture this bubble of unreality by organizing a joint public statement with his close Chinese counterpart affirming that their relationship was “more than an alliance.”

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Ron Unz

    Mearsheimer's been right all along, but he definitely didn't read Putin's essay on Ukrainian statehood. Ironic that Ukraine falls before his obsession, Taiwan.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/U.S.-engagement-with-China-a-strategic-blunder-Mearsheimer

    The question in these instances always becomes, "Who gets hurt more?" If you could do serious damage to the Chinese economy and only minimal damage to the American economy or the Japanese economy, you would pay that price.
    My reading of the interview is US setting up a 2nd Ukraine as a trap for China to walk into with an assault. What is being done to Russia economically is a trial of what will be done to China.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @bombthe3gorgesdam
  140. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    These apocalyptic scenarios seem exaggerated to me, and tbh I’m starting to really resent Russians for their “If that would happen, we’d rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons” bs.
    That being said, ideally there would be some attempt for a diplomatic solution (treaty about Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of Crimea, maybe Donbass too). But what’s not acceptable from a Western or Ukrainian perspective is “demilitarization” and “denazification” of all of Ukraine, and Putin seems to be unwilling to go for anything less…so in a sense it’s his fault too, if this becomes an all-or-nothing contest.

    •�Replies: @Adept
    @German_reader


    tbh I’m starting to really resent Russians for their “If that would happen, we’d rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons” bs.

    Hold up. Didn't you, just the other day, write the following?

    I think the hardcore Nazis who committed suicide or died fighting in 1945 were right on a fundamental level, and Germans then should have done the same collectively instead of embarking on the increasingly grotesque farce this country has become
    (Previous open thread, post 879.)

    It's the same exact sentiment -- something along the lines of "the world without ______ isn't a world worth living in," but writ very large.

    Why resent anyone for feelings you have yourself expressed?

    As an aside, for whatever it's worth, Russia's invasion looks like a disaster on every possible level. Terrible tactics. Terrible operational planning. Terrible strategy. Terrible disregard for morality and the sanctity of human life.

    Replies: @German_reader
  141. @Hapalong Cassidy
    Well these threads have become more or less useless (read: overrun by paid trolls). I guess that’s the price for Mr. Unz’s leniency.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Well as I stated before I would be very happy if Ron Unz was to archive this blog and open separate Open Threads on Ukraine (or whichever other topics). The blog is supposedly under my name but I don’t even have moderation powers under posts not started by myself.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    We are seeing the limits of rational discussion when extreme emotions take over. It should help us understand why some events in the past happened - and how easy it is to descend into one-sided madness.

    Creating a fake hysteria over 'attack on nuclear power plant' is so over the top that only people raised in the retarded Hollywood world could buy it. I hope they did it consciously, if they are really that dumb God help us. When the music stops and dancing cholas go home, where will Mr.Hack go? How many booster shots will the latter-day Nazi 'unz' pump into himself?

    Keep the blog for now. The story needs an ending, here too. There will be enough time to archive it once this is over.
    , @iffen
    @Anatoly Karlin

    under my name but I don’t even have moderation powers

    Peter, Peter, pumpkin eater has lost his moderation theatre.

    I remember you defending R. Unz vis-a-vis this issue with Peter Frost.

    Serves you right.
  142. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country
    I think that's too cynical, there probably really was the idea that Ukraine could be flipped over to the Atlantic camp, thereby boxing Russia in and undermining Russia's geopolitical situation. Obviously this still was a pretty terrible idea (not that I think Russia has any moral right to keep Ukraine under her thumb, but it was a mistake to underestimate how far Russia would be willing to go to prevent an Atlanticist Ukraine...in retrospect it would have been better to push Ukraine towards implementing the Minsk agreements, which weren't ideal from an Ukrainian national perspective, but still preferable to what's now going on).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @for-the-record

    Small countries need to be realistic about the hand they’ve been dealt, Finland has been an admirable example in this respect.
    Countries on the borderland just have to hypercautious for the sake of their own existence. Like, Armenia existed in a similar borderland situation to Ukraine now between the Romans and Sassanids for hundreds of years, any small violation of its perceived neutrality was the basis for dozens of wars, invariably much of them fought over its own soil.

    Little countries with delusions of grandeur can only become geopolitically ‘powerful’ by destabilising their entire region, see Israel.

  143. @AP
    @Mikhail

    Using Donbas war and Kiev's actions in Donbas to justify the invasion and bombing of Ukraine proper is the moral equivalent of using Russia's behavior in Grozny to justify the murder of people in Moscow of schoolchildren in Beslan by Chechen terrorists. It's actually worse, because the Russian state has murdered more people than Chechens terrorists have. And because what was done to Grozny by Russia was much wore than what was done to Donbas by Kiev.

    Congratulations for demonstrating the depths of your moral depravity.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Anatoly Karlin

    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it. This is not a war that Russia started, but it is one that Russia will end, very mercifully and quickly by comparison.

    •�Agree: sher singh, Aedib, mal, RadicalCenter
    •�LOL: Mr. Hack
    •�Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it.
    Most of the civilian deaths in Donbas (less than 4,000) occurred in 2014-2015.

    By 2021 that number was down to 18 from January to October of that year:

    https://ukraine.un.org/en/151093-conflict-related-civilian-casualties-ukraine-8-october-2021

    Most but not all of these happened in rebel territory; some were killed by Donbas militants in government-controlled territory.

    In 2020, it had been 21 deaths, so the number was decreasing.

    To put that in perspective, this is lower than the number of automobile accident deaths in a mid-size American city, Pittsburgh (23 deaths in 2019):

    https://www.city-data.com/accidents/acc-Pittsburgh-Pennsylvania.html

    The civilian deaths almost always occurred when Donbas militants fired on Ukrainian positions and the Ukrainians returned fire. The way to end them would be to end the rebellion, either by stopping support for it or by annexing the territories and destroying Ukrainian artillery positions within range of Donbas. Invading all of Ukraine and slaughtering civilians in Kharkiv, Kiev and other cities is unnecessary for that.

    There is no moral difference between disgusting filth such as Averko trying to excuse the invasion of Ukraine by pointing out Donbas civilian deaths, and the filth that justifies killings of Muscovites and Beslan children by Chechens who lost 10,000s of civilians from Russian bombs in Grozny.

    So yes, it is morally depraved to seek to avenge the deaths in Donbas by bombing and murdering civilians in Kiev, such as this family (parents and child) who had been killed while trying to escape Irpen, a Kiev suburb:



    https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1500510896619237382?s=20&t=BCFcJwj0W0feW3JIuA8PZg
    , @Philip Owen
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Bullshit. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to a military surplus dealer in Taganarog.With hindsight clearly intended for Malofeev's army. The scenario planning was published in 2005. 80,000 men were thought to be required to take Novorossiya. In the end they went for Donbass with 25,000. Russia via irregulars very very definitely started this war and planned it a decade before Maidan. It is not in doubt. The Third Empire even descirbes a Maidan pushed by Russia.

    When the Ukrainian army thrashed them, they retreated to civilian areas. Since then they have regularly shell Ukrainian positions from civilian cover. When a man dies the Ukrainians shoot back.

    The fascist mercenaries need this reaction. Conflict keeps their hold on the civilian population. Most of the dead are soldiers anyway, the largest number being Ukrainian.
  144. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    Putin has mostly wanted outright annexation regardless of how Ukrainians feel about that, and eventual annihilation of Ukrainian identity – more moderate demands are what Lavrov has been thinking. Russia will push on and even mobilize to get Ukraine under complete control.

    Isolation plays into the hand of Russian nationalists who have been pushing for a full-spectrum decoupling, like Iran, and they get it now. And you underestimate Russia’s stability in that state – the Navalnyites are noise that is mostly emigrating like liberal Iranians after the revolution and those remain will either be loyalists or conformists. Iran has survived for 4 decades. So Americanization will be borderline impossible even when Putin’s gone.

    No one benefits from this – this is Act 2 of the fall of industrial capitalism after the COVID agenda.

  145. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country
    I think that's too cynical, there probably really was the idea that Ukraine could be flipped over to the Atlantic camp, thereby boxing Russia in and undermining Russia's geopolitical situation. Obviously this still was a pretty terrible idea (not that I think Russia has any moral right to keep Ukraine under her thumb, but it was a mistake to underestimate how far Russia would be willing to go to prevent an Atlanticist Ukraine...in retrospect it would have been better to push Ukraine towards implementing the Minsk agreements, which weren't ideal from an Ukrainian national perspective, but still preferable to what's now going on).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @for-the-record

    I think that’s too cynical

    What it is, is déjà vu:

    The Office of Policy Coordination and the CIA’s Office of Special Operations entered battle on this field. Agents were briefed and given false papers and sent on missions throughout the Eastern bloc, including into the USSR itself, where for several years after the war a Ukrainian resistance movement continued to fight the Red Army. This was a major and fascinating undertaking. The Ukraine was an acknowledged part of the USSR, so the operations were tantamount to war. It demonstrated the determination with which the United States entered the cold war. It also demonstrated a cold ruthlessness: the Ukrainian resistance had no hope of winning unless America was prepared to go to war on its behalf. Since America was not prepared to go to war, America was in effect encouraging Ukrainians to go to their deaths.

    John Ranelagh, Agency: The Rise and Decline of the CIA, 1986, p. 137.

  146. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    You don't exclude homegrown movements being co-opted by the likes of Nuland, which proves both accounts right.

    (Somewhat like how Russians groomed and weaponized Balkan and Slavic nationalism against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary, which backfired horribly at the end)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    No, I don’t think that the Ukrainian movement in Ukraine has been coopted by the US or Nuland. There is a distinct difference in policy going on now, where the West has refused to go ahead and create a no fly zone over Ukraine. Zelensky has clearly pointed his finger at the US accusing it of being cowardly and such for its inability to do so. If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.

    •�Disagree: iffen
    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not. He doesn't seem as intelligent or shameless as Navalny, so I suspect he doesn't, it's always more effective that way regardless. I only feel sorry for Ukrainians caught up in all this whole sham.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @German_reader
  147. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AaronB


    As I said, war makes strange bedfellows of us all.
    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it. In 2007 after a bunch of people had finally called out George Bush's Iraq BS a friend of mine told me "you were the only one who knew". I told him that wasn't quite correct. A lot of people knew but I was the only one he knew that opened my big fat mouth which in hindsight I did not have to do.

    This guy bought a ghost town in Owens Valley and makes weird you tube videos but you probably already saw them:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYCAwk5oxFE

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AaronB

    I couldn’t agree with you more.

    The idea that you must always pick a side is one of the most idiotic ones in existence, but unfortunately deeply embedded in people’s psychology.

    For instance, it seems obvious to me that all the major players today, the US, Russia, China, and Europe are deeply corrupted by different versions of the same ideology.

    The idiocy of thinking any of these entities is a genuine alternative to the other drives me to the brink of despair.

    As for Ron Unz, his essays and comments, and his editorial policy, seem to me to make very clear that he has in general picked a side on the supposed political divisions of our time, and in a very extreme and even comical way (he utterly demonizes and dehumanizes the side he opposes) – and I regard him and his website as being classic extreme kneejerk side-takers.

    That being said, sometimes taking a side is clear and obvious – as in between Russia and Ukraine.

    I generally believe that people shouldn’t be demonized but one must take sides against thought-systems and values, so in that sense taking sides is necessary.

    Thanks for the videos – I had not previously seen them!

  148. @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    No, I don't think that the Ukrainian movement in Ukraine has been coopted by the US or Nuland. There is a distinct difference in policy going on now, where the West has refused to go ahead and create a no fly zone over Ukraine. Zelensky has clearly pointed his finger at the US accusing it of being cowardly and such for its inability to do so. If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.

    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not. He doesn’t seem as intelligent or shameless as Navalny, so I suspect he doesn’t, it’s always more effective that way regardless. I only feel sorry for Ukrainians caught up in all this whole sham.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yevardian

    Lucky for Ukraine that you're not the stage director. :-(

    Replies: @Yevardian
    , @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not.
    imo it's a mistake to claim Zelensky et al don't have agency of their own, there were plenty of examples during the original Cold war where various 3rd world actors manipulated the superpowers to their own benefit.
    I would even agree with Mr Hack about the no-fly-zone stuff, just that I view it totally negatively and resent Zelensky for it. This is a classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden's administration doesn't let itself be manipulated into such a dangerous decision by social media hysteria and Ukrainian lobbyism.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Gerard1234
  149. @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not. He doesn't seem as intelligent or shameless as Navalny, so I suspect he doesn't, it's always more effective that way regardless. I only feel sorry for Ukrainians caught up in all this whole sham.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @German_reader

    Lucky for Ukraine that you’re not the stage director. 🙁

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    Lucky for Ukraine that you’re not the stage director. 🙁
    Well, important government figures from South Vietnam also cried cowardice, begging for more weapons and support as the US pulled out from that theatre, people that are now universally admitted to be pliant puppets from across the political sprectrum. Were these people aware of their foreordained sacrificial role? Probably not either.

    Although at least initially, the US had some hope of winning that war, planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible, and go down whilst taking as much Ukrainian/Russian blood with them as possible. Zelensky and the Maidan leadership fight down to the last concrete bunker in Lvov, it won't change Germans or Americans holding their nose at Eastern Europeans generally.
    I mean, Bulgarians and Romanians have been in the EU for years and are still looked down on as dirt by Westerners. Even Visegrad doesn't get much respect and still regularly gets dictated to from their betters.
    Well my reaction to this nonsense got me riled up, I'm starting to sound like Beckow now.

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow
  150. @Yevardian
    @Svidomyatheart


    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that's all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.


    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart

    WE’RE WHITE THEY HAVE TO CARE ABOUT US,
    WE’RE NOT BROWN LIKE YOU ARMENIANS!

    interesting video, Rus didn’t have supply dumps in Ukr already.
    Otherwise, things proceed as planned tbh, ground taken fastish.

  151. @Ron Unz
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    It is not necessary to always pick a side. If Ron Unz has picked a side I have not seen it.
    I happened to be reading through this thread, and I'd say my position is closer to Yevardian's than anyone else, though I'm much more sympathetic to Putin, given all the endless provocations against Russia.

    Here are a couple of paragraphs from a long article I'm writing, along with the relevant Youtube clip, which I've very highly recommend watching:

    During his long and distinguished career at the CIA, former analyst Ray McGovern had run the Soviet Policy Branch and also served as the Presidential Briefer, so under different circumstances he or someone like him would would currently be advising President Joe Biden. Instead, a few days ago he joined Mearsheimer in presenting his views in a video discussion hosted by the Committee for the Republic. Both noted experts agreed that Putin had been pushed beyond all reasonable limits, provoking the invasion.

    A much more important example was highlighted by Ray McGovern in his March 3nd presentation. During last June’s Biden-Putin summit, our president told the Russian leader that we fully understood the terrible pressure he was facing from the Chinese, and his fear of their military threat. Such statements must have been regarded as sheer lunacy by the Russian national security leadership, and a strong sign of the completely delusional nature of the American foreign policy establishment they faced. Since such bizarre beliefs might prompt America to take actions detrimental to Russian interests, Putin attempted to puncture this bubble of unreality by organizing a joint public statement with his close Chinese counterpart affirming that their relationship was “more than an alliance.”
    https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc?t=2630

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Mearsheimer’s been right all along, but he definitely didn’t read Putin’s essay on Ukrainian statehood. Ironic that Ukraine falls before his obsession, Taiwan.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/U.S.-engagement-with-China-a-strategic-blunder-Mearsheimer

    The question in these instances always becomes, “Who gets hurt more?” If you could do serious damage to the Chinese economy and only minimal damage to the American economy or the Japanese economy, you would pay that price.

    My reading of the interview is US setting up a 2nd Ukraine as a trap for China to walk into with an assault. What is being done to Russia economically is a trial of what will be done to China.

    •�Disagree: Mikhail
    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Yellowface Anon

    See:

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/08/21/getting-real-with-the-us-foreign-policy-establishment-realists/

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @bombthe3gorgesdam
    @Yellowface Anon

    Why do you say Mearsheimer is obsessed with Taiwan? Is it because he believes it makes good strategic sense for America to defend Taiwan from china? Are the chinese obsessed with Taiwan? This is just manipulative, emotional language from you, yellowface. Speak plainly, like a white man.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  152. @Yellowface Anon
    @Ron Unz

    Mearsheimer's been right all along, but he definitely didn't read Putin's essay on Ukrainian statehood. Ironic that Ukraine falls before his obsession, Taiwan.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/U.S.-engagement-with-China-a-strategic-blunder-Mearsheimer

    The question in these instances always becomes, "Who gets hurt more?" If you could do serious damage to the Chinese economy and only minimal damage to the American economy or the Japanese economy, you would pay that price.
    My reading of the interview is US setting up a 2nd Ukraine as a trap for China to walk into with an assault. What is being done to Russia economically is a trial of what will be done to China.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @bombthe3gorgesdam
    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    Go and re-read what you quoted in there. (You quoted nothing from him on China)
  153. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    Well as I stated before I would be very happy if Ron Unz was to archive this blog and open separate Open Threads on Ukraine (or whichever other topics). The blog is supposedly under my name but I don't even have moderation powers under posts not started by myself.

    Replies: @Beckow, @iffen

    We are seeing the limits of rational discussion when extreme emotions take over. It should help us understand why some events in the past happened – and how easy it is to descend into one-sided madness.

    Creating a fake hysteria over ‘attack on nuclear power plant‘ is so over the top that only people raised in the retarded Hollywood world could buy it. I hope they did it consciously, if they are really that dumb God help us. When the music stops and dancing cholas go home, where will Mr.Hack go? How many booster shots will the latter-day Nazi ‘unz’ pump into himself?

    Keep the blog for now. The story needs an ending, here too. There will be enough time to archive it once this is over.

  154. where will Mr.Hack go?

    Quite possibly to Slovakia! Slovakia’s support for EU membership for Ukraine, the sending of more arms to Ukraine, helping absorb the influx of new emigres, all point to a country that has more wisdom than some of its citizens. Your sovok ways seem way out of step with your fellow countrymen!

    Also, your feeble attempts to minimize Europe’s concern with the mismanagement of nuclear power plants within Ukraine taken over by Russian invaders is really pretty stupid.

  155. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The sad thing is that Russia's future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine. If it manages to take over some of Ukraine's cities, think of all of the time and resources it will consume in trying to subdue the insurgent countryside (that will spill over into the cities as well). Imagine the very worst IRA scenarios imaginable, that is what probably awaits Russia. Drat! There goes your comfy position as a director of some transhumanist research facility.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @yakushimaru
    , @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It might also have been better to not gamble literally the whole of the Russian cultural world's future existence for the next century on a single dice roll instead.
    What makes me so angry and gloomy is that is doesn't even look it was intended that way (Putin has always been cautious, I doubt this was intended as some imperial reconquestica, rather a collosal miscalculation), but after such a step has been taken there's no turning back.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn't even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Anatoly Karlin
    , @AaronB
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What about loyalty to tribe, family, and nation even unto death and defeat?

    What about the long game - where ultimate victory means many temporary defeats?

    I suppose this kind of shallow opportunistic thinking is the ultimate logical result of materialism - one is "loyal" only to gross power and success, and only in it's immediate short term manifestation.

    Of course, this level of "commitment" never succeeds in the long run. Only uncompromising long term commitment - unconditional and "illogical" - does. If this is the calibre of "loyalty" Russia is attracting, I now see it has no chance of long term success.

    This attitude is in such stark contrast to the "illogical" commitment, loyalty, and resistance of the Ukrainians.

    But then, I have already noted that it's an illusion Russia is in any way healthier on fundamentals than the West.

    Oh, and one more thing - this attitude that mere failure is so terrible a thing, this fear of mere failure, is the small minded attitude that makes sure glory and success never come.

    And yet, a materialist cannot help but fear failure as the worst thing, and cannot help but be defeated by setback.
    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    2022 looks to be another Russian self-own, like 1914 or 1917. Many Russians were optimistic at the beginning of those disastrous misadventures, also. You have a lot of company.

    Only question is how bad it will be. Sad.

    The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West.
    If Russia wins it will be the same result, except the number of people living in misery will be greater by 25-30 million and Russians will be even poorer still due to having to maintain an occupation force and having to massively rebuild under conditions of heavy sanctions.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  156. @Mikhail
    @Yellowface Anon

    See:

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/08/21/getting-real-with-the-us-foreign-policy-establishment-realists/

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Go and re-read what you quoted in there. (You quoted nothing from him on China)

  157. Mikhail says: •�Website

    Below tweet reminds me of this exchange I just had:

    They are being bombed !!!!
    They are being invaded.
    What would you do if we were being invaded?

    followed by –

    Imagine the media covers you beating the crap out of someone and calling it unprovoked aggression, without noting that you were responding to prolonged attacks on your loved ones by the person you’re beating up, coupled with your frustration that no one was putting a stop to that behavior. Like I said, what you’re watching is war porn.

  158. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Yevardian, @AaronB, @AP

    The sad thing is that Russia’s future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine. If it manages to take over some of Ukraine’s cities, think of all of the time and resources it will consume in trying to subdue the insurgent countryside (that will spill over into the cities as well). Imagine the very worst IRA scenarios imaginable, that is what probably awaits Russia. Drat! There goes your comfy position as a director of some transhumanist research facility.

    •�Agree: Philip Owen
    •�Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Mr. Hack

    It is one thing to check all the caucasian looking men on the metro *didn't work anyway I was two cars away from being blown up, another to check all men.
    , @yakushimaru
    @Mr. Hack

    How did Stalin manage a border?

    Why is it must be like Afghanistan or Iraq? Why can't it be like East Europe in Soviet time? Or something else?

    Did a bleeding Iraq destablise its neighbors? Will a bloody messy Ukraine hurt Poland?
  159. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Yevardian, @AaronB, @AP

    It might also have been better to not gamble literally the whole of the Russian cultural world’s future existence for the next century on a single dice roll instead.
    What makes me so angry and gloomy is that is doesn’t even look it was intended that way (Putin has always been cautious, I doubt this was intended as some imperial reconquestica, rather a collosal miscalculation), but after such a step has been taken there’s no turning back.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn’t even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @Yevardian

    Accidently posted early. I meant to say, Hitler hardly desired or planned for a continental war, at least in 1939, given such planning, but that's what he got. And Russia is much less autarkic than Germany then.

    @Mr.Hack

    The sad thing is that Russia’s future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine.
    No reason to gloat, your countrymen, as far as they can be separated from Russia, will be even worse off in the event of a total Russian collapse, along with practically all the old Soviet 'Near-Abroad' generally. But you can consider you co-patriots lucky, Armenia will simply be wiped off the face of the earth, to join other vanished nations like the Assyrians, Old Prussians, Phrygians, Tocharians, etc.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    Eh, as per above, on the freak chance that Russia "loses" to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    2022 is the best year to solve this problem after 2014, it is unlikely there would have ever been a more favorable confluence for many reasons I have repeatedly pointed out. That Ukrainian combat effectiveness turned out higher than expected just confirms this point.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn’t even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.
    No, this is an urban legend, it started years earlier, military spending was at 10% of GDP by 1936.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @Triteleia Laxa
  160. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It might also have been better to not gamble literally the whole of the Russian cultural world's future existence for the next century on a single dice roll instead.
    What makes me so angry and gloomy is that is doesn't even look it was intended that way (Putin has always been cautious, I doubt this was intended as some imperial reconquestica, rather a collosal miscalculation), but after such a step has been taken there's no turning back.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn't even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Anatoly Karlin

    Accidently posted early. I meant to say, Hitler hardly desired or planned for a continental war, at least in 1939, given such planning, but that’s what he got. And Russia is much less autarkic than Germany then.

    @Mr.Hack

    The sad thing is that Russia’s future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine.

    No reason to gloat, your countrymen, as far as they can be separated from Russia, will be even worse off in the event of a total Russian collapse, along with practically all the old Soviet ‘Near-Abroad’ generally. But you can consider you co-patriots lucky, Armenia will simply be wiped off the face of the earth, to join other vanished nations like the Assyrians, Old Prussians, Phrygians, Tocharians, etc.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yevardian


    No reason to gloat, your countrymen, as far as they can be separated from Russia, will be even worse off in the event of a total Russian collapse, along with practically all the old Soviet ‘Near-Abroad’ generally. But you can consider you co-patriots lucky, Armenia will simply be wiped off the face of the earth, to join other vanished nations like the Assyrians, Old Prussians, Phrygians, Tocharians, etc.
    Who's gloating? You seem indignant towards Ukrainians for putting up a valiant resistance to straightforward Russian aggression. Why not squarely blame Russia for all of the tragedy and chaos that you envision occuring because of these events? They are, after all, the ones responsible for instigating this carnage, not the Ukrainians. Wasn't February 23 a much better day for the world, the day before the Russians decided to rid Ukraine of "Nazis"? Or do you buy that crap too?
  161. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Yevardian, @AaronB, @AP

    What about loyalty to tribe, family, and nation even unto death and defeat?

    What about the long game – where ultimate victory means many temporary defeats?

    I suppose this kind of shallow opportunistic thinking is the ultimate logical result of materialism – one is “loyal” only to gross power and success, and only in it’s immediate short term manifestation.

    Of course, this level of “commitment” never succeeds in the long run. Only uncompromising long term commitment – unconditional and “illogical” – does. If this is the calibre of “loyalty” Russia is attracting, I now see it has no chance of long term success.

    This attitude is in such stark contrast to the “illogical” commitment, loyalty, and resistance of the Ukrainians.

    But then, I have already noted that it’s an illusion Russia is in any way healthier on fundamentals than the West.

    Oh, and one more thing – this attitude that mere failure is so terrible a thing, this fear of mere failure, is the small minded attitude that makes sure glory and success never come.

    And yet, a materialist cannot help but fear failure as the worst thing, and cannot help but be defeated by setback.

  162. @Mr. Hack
    @Yevardian

    Lucky for Ukraine that you're not the stage director. :-(

    Replies: @Yevardian

    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    Lucky for Ukraine that you’re not the stage director. 🙁

    Well, important government figures from South Vietnam also cried cowardice, begging for more weapons and support as the US pulled out from that theatre, people that are now universally admitted to be pliant puppets from across the political sprectrum. Were these people aware of their foreordained sacrificial role? Probably not either.

    Although at least initially, the US had some hope of winning that war, planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible, and go down whilst taking as much Ukrainian/Russian blood with them as possible. Zelensky and the Maidan leadership fight down to the last concrete bunker in Lvov, it won’t change Germans or Americans holding their nose at Eastern Europeans generally.
    I mean, Bulgarians and Romanians have been in the EU for years and are still looked down on as dirt by Westerners. Even Visegrad doesn’t get much respect and still regularly gets dictated to from their betters.
    Well my reaction to this nonsense got me riled up, I’m starting to sound like Beckow now.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @Yevardian


    planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible,
    The WEF Elites of Davos also planted Not-The-President Biden on America to undermine coherent & effective MAGA foreign policy. Almost everyone (including many commenters here) believe that this would not have escalated without the incompetence of a mentally ill White House occupier.

    I hope that Zelensky sees the cliff that George IslamoSoros is trying to herd Ukraine off of. He is the leader of a Judeo-Christian country, not an SJW lemming The IslamoSoros should be treated as any enemy, and any NGO that takes money from his "charities" should be booted (or prosecuted).

    Adopting Putin's NGO policy would immediately build a bridge between the two leaders. And, it gives Zelensky an "out". Blame can be assigned to the Open [Muslim] Society Foundation for interfering with Ukrainian sovereignty.
    ____

    For anyone pushing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.... Please note -- Israel is resisting WEF Elite warmongering and sanctions: (1)

    Israel that made the most memorable overture to Russia of a historical nature suffused with great poignancy. Israel prevented the US from transferring to Ukraine its Dome missile defense system, which would have been a game-changer in the present conflict, on the plea that it did not want to act against Russia.

    Both Washington and Tel Aviv hushed up this spat until its disclosure recently by the media. Then came the request from the Biden administration seeking support from Israel to co-sponsor its resolution in the Security Council regarding Ukraine. Israel refused.
    Ejecting the Davos Globalists will place Ukraine, Israel, and Russia on the same side.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/why-middle-east-wont-join-us-in-isolating-russia/

    Replies: @Yevardian
    , @Beckow
    @Yevardian


    ...I’m starting to sound like Beckow now.
    See, rationality always prevails. If people would focus more on what is happening and less on emotions and false analogies, we would be better off. Wars are a result of a deep anger and frustration. In turn, wars release more anger, hope, hatred, despair. It is all there, and here.

    See the attached by Peter Hitchens (a good insight with the usual small omissions):

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10581335/PETER-HITCHENS-saw-coming-Thats-wont-join-carnival-hypocrisy.html

    All of this is besides the point: when history is being made, muses are silent. Our and their reasons, self-referential narratives, emotional voyeurism - all of them are pushed aside to focus on the war. Any war is existential so the social noise doesn't matter. The side that takes it more seriously has an advantage. Russia has traditionally not taken things seriously - until they are forced. Even today they keep on dropping into 'normalcy", hoping to keep it contained. It is obviously too late for that.

    You are angry that Russia went for it and decided to cut the b..s. You look for analogies, patterns, history. None of that matters - it is a unique situation with untested players. It is something new. And the result, the consequences will be new.

    When I was at fancy universities they liked to talk about "paradigm shifts" - people saw them everywhere. Usually they were poseurs, nothing was really happening. Now it is - this is the long-awaited paradigm shift. If you look up the definition, it fundamentally changes the environment we live in. So far we have: no Corona, no white people 'nationalism' left, no shrieking Greta, money is officially 'funny money', the Enlightenment is over. And nothing is funny any more. We will have to get used to it. Who started it and why? We can disagree, but why does it matter?
  163. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It might also have been better to not gamble literally the whole of the Russian cultural world's future existence for the next century on a single dice roll instead.
    What makes me so angry and gloomy is that is doesn't even look it was intended that way (Putin has always been cautious, I doubt this was intended as some imperial reconquestica, rather a collosal miscalculation), but after such a step has been taken there's no turning back.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn't even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Anatoly Karlin

    Eh, as per above, on the freak chance that Russia “loses” to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    2022 is the best year to solve this problem after 2014, it is unlikely there would have ever been a more favorable confluence for many reasons I have repeatedly pointed out. That Ukrainian combat effectiveness turned out higher than expected just confirms this point.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn’t even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

    No, this is an urban legend, it started years earlier, military spending was at 10% of GDP by 1936.

    •�Replies: @for-the-record
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK (2022)
    . . . on the freak chance that Russia “loses” to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    AH (1944)

    If the German people cannot wrest victory from the enemy, then they shall be destroyed… they deserve to perish, for the best of Germany’s manhood will have fallen in battle. Germany’s end will be horrible, and the German people will have deserved it.
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    No, Putin's government is a loser government. You see, if I worked for him and believed him when he said there was no chance of him invading Ukraine, I would have lied to him and told him Russians would be welcomed and it would be over in 2 days too. This is why open and democratic will always beat closed and controlled in the long run. Yes, it looks more chaotic, but that is just superficial. In reality, by getting the chaos all out in the open, it creates better results.

    To paraphrase Augustine of Hippo: if you're going to sin or makes mistakes, do at least do it consciously or honestly.

    Amusingly, the only "Empire of Lies" that has been haunting Putin turned out to be his own bureaucracy and that is entirely his fault.

    Replies: @Wokechoke
  164. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    Eh, as per above, on the freak chance that Russia "loses" to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    2022 is the best year to solve this problem after 2014, it is unlikely there would have ever been a more favorable confluence for many reasons I have repeatedly pointed out. That Ukrainian combat effectiveness turned out higher than expected just confirms this point.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn’t even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.
    No, this is an urban legend, it started years earlier, military spending was at 10% of GDP by 1936.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @Triteleia Laxa

    AK (2022)
    . . . on the freak chance that Russia “loses” to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    AH (1944)

    If the German people cannot wrest victory from the enemy, then they shall be destroyed… they deserve to perish, for the best of Germany’s manhood will have fallen in battle. Germany’s end will be horrible, and the German people will have deserved it.

  165. A123 says: •�Website
    @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    Lucky for Ukraine that you’re not the stage director. 🙁
    Well, important government figures from South Vietnam also cried cowardice, begging for more weapons and support as the US pulled out from that theatre, people that are now universally admitted to be pliant puppets from across the political sprectrum. Were these people aware of their foreordained sacrificial role? Probably not either.

    Although at least initially, the US had some hope of winning that war, planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible, and go down whilst taking as much Ukrainian/Russian blood with them as possible. Zelensky and the Maidan leadership fight down to the last concrete bunker in Lvov, it won't change Germans or Americans holding their nose at Eastern Europeans generally.
    I mean, Bulgarians and Romanians have been in the EU for years and are still looked down on as dirt by Westerners. Even Visegrad doesn't get much respect and still regularly gets dictated to from their betters.
    Well my reaction to this nonsense got me riled up, I'm starting to sound like Beckow now.

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible,

    The WEF Elites of Davos also planted Not-The-President Biden on America to undermine coherent & effective MAGA foreign policy. Almost everyone (including many commenters here) believe that this would not have escalated without the incompetence of a mentally ill White House occupier.

    I hope that Zelensky sees the cliff that George IslamoSoros is trying to herd Ukraine off of. He is the leader of a Judeo-Christian country, not an SJW lemming The IslamoSoros should be treated as any enemy, and any NGO that takes money from his “charities” should be booted (or prosecuted).

    Adopting Putin’s NGO policy would immediately build a bridge between the two leaders. And, it gives Zelensky an “out”. Blame can be assigned to the Open [Muslim] Society Foundation for interfering with Ukrainian sovereignty.
    ____

    For anyone pushing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories…. Please note — Israel is resisting WEF Elite warmongering and sanctions: (1)

    Israel that made the most memorable overture to Russia of a historical nature suffused with great poignancy. Israel prevented the US from transferring to Ukraine its Dome missile defense system, which would have been a game-changer in the present conflict, on the plea that it did not want to act against Russia.

    Both Washington and Tel Aviv hushed up this spat until its disclosure recently by the media. Then came the request from the Biden administration seeking support from Israel to co-sponsor its resolution in the Security Council regarding Ukraine. Israel refused.

    Ejecting the Davos Globalists will place Ukraine, Israel, and Russia on the same side.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/why-middle-east-wont-join-us-in-isolating-russia/

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @A123

    Could AK, or Our Benevolent Overlord finally please permanently scrub this.. thing from infesting threads here? I blocked it a long time ago, but now it's interacting with my posts.

    Replies: @A123
  166. @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    Lucky for Ukraine that you’re not the stage director. 🙁
    Well, important government figures from South Vietnam also cried cowardice, begging for more weapons and support as the US pulled out from that theatre, people that are now universally admitted to be pliant puppets from across the political sprectrum. Were these people aware of their foreordained sacrificial role? Probably not either.

    Although at least initially, the US had some hope of winning that war, planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible, and go down whilst taking as much Ukrainian/Russian blood with them as possible. Zelensky and the Maidan leadership fight down to the last concrete bunker in Lvov, it won't change Germans or Americans holding their nose at Eastern Europeans generally.
    I mean, Bulgarians and Romanians have been in the EU for years and are still looked down on as dirt by Westerners. Even Visegrad doesn't get much respect and still regularly gets dictated to from their betters.
    Well my reaction to this nonsense got me riled up, I'm starting to sound like Beckow now.

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    …I’m starting to sound like Beckow now.

    See, rationality always prevails. If people would focus more on what is happening and less on emotions and false analogies, we would be better off. Wars are a result of a deep anger and frustration. In turn, wars release more anger, hope, hatred, despair. It is all there, and here.

    See the attached by Peter Hitchens (a good insight with the usual small omissions):

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10581335/PETER-HITCHENS-saw-coming-Thats-wont-join-carnival-hypocrisy.html

    All of this is besides the point: when history is being made, muses are silent. Our and their reasons, self-referential narratives, emotional voyeurism – all of them are pushed aside to focus on the war. Any war is existential so the social noise doesn’t matter. The side that takes it more seriously has an advantage. Russia has traditionally not taken things seriously – until they are forced. Even today they keep on dropping into ‘normalcy”, hoping to keep it contained. It is obviously too late for that.

    You are angry that Russia went for it and decided to cut the b..s. You look for analogies, patterns, history. None of that matters – it is a unique situation with untested players. It is something new. And the result, the consequences will be new.

    When I was at fancy universities they liked to talk about “paradigm shifts” – people saw them everywhere. Usually they were poseurs, nothing was really happening. Now it is – this is the long-awaited paradigm shift. If you look up the definition, it fundamentally changes the environment we live in. So far we have: no Corona, no white people ‘nationalism’ left, no shrieking Greta, money is officially ‘funny money’, the Enlightenment is over. And nothing is funny any more. We will have to get used to it. Who started it and why? We can disagree, but why does it matter?

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
  167. @A123
    @Yevardian


    planted political pots like Zelensky (however decent they may be on a personal level) just blatantly in Ukraine to make any real negotiation impossible,
    The WEF Elites of Davos also planted Not-The-President Biden on America to undermine coherent & effective MAGA foreign policy. Almost everyone (including many commenters here) believe that this would not have escalated without the incompetence of a mentally ill White House occupier.

    I hope that Zelensky sees the cliff that George IslamoSoros is trying to herd Ukraine off of. He is the leader of a Judeo-Christian country, not an SJW lemming The IslamoSoros should be treated as any enemy, and any NGO that takes money from his "charities" should be booted (or prosecuted).

    Adopting Putin's NGO policy would immediately build a bridge between the two leaders. And, it gives Zelensky an "out". Blame can be assigned to the Open [Muslim] Society Foundation for interfering with Ukrainian sovereignty.
    ____

    For anyone pushing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.... Please note -- Israel is resisting WEF Elite warmongering and sanctions: (1)

    Israel that made the most memorable overture to Russia of a historical nature suffused with great poignancy. Israel prevented the US from transferring to Ukraine its Dome missile defense system, which would have been a game-changer in the present conflict, on the plea that it did not want to act against Russia.

    Both Washington and Tel Aviv hushed up this spat until its disclosure recently by the media. Then came the request from the Biden administration seeking support from Israel to co-sponsor its resolution in the Security Council regarding Ukraine. Israel refused.
    Ejecting the Davos Globalists will place Ukraine, Israel, and Russia on the same side.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/why-middle-east-wont-join-us-in-isolating-russia/

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Could AK, or Our Benevolent Overlord finally please permanently scrub this.. thing from infesting threads here? I blocked it a long time ago, but now it’s interacting with my posts.

    •�Agree: Yellowface Anon
    •�LOL: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Yevardian

    I am not sure why you are so upset with me. I do not recall a specific battle.

    Also, I largely concur with your positions on the current conflict. The goal of my post was to clarify who is responsible.
    ___

    America is not monolithic.

    -- There is a highly unpopular criminal faction in the U.S. Members include the SJW/DNC, NeoConDemocrats, and the current coup regime. Their ties to European Elites via WEF Davos are pretty clear. If you want to blame the anti-American, multinational SJW Globalists, feel free.

    -- Main Street Americans also blame them. The incompetence of the occupied White House has created energy dependency, massive inflation, and an incredible surge in unpunished crime. If you have a suggestion on how to get rid of the Fake President, I would love to hear it. Sadly, I think we are stuck for the next three years.


    https://comicallyincorrect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/04-othr-border-ac-1080-1050x750.jpg

    The 2nd half of the post was not even aimed at you. It was just convenient timing. Those with Jewish heritage/ancestry like are also not monolithic.

    -- Palestinian Jews value their cultural & economic relationships with Russia. It is pretty clear that they empathize with Putin. After all "hostile neighbors" is a situation that plagues the Jewish religious homeland every single day.

    -- Post-Judaic SJW's, such as the ADL, are unsurprisingly full on mouth frothing, crazed, and outraged at Putin. (1)

    I suspect many people are unaware of Israel's multiple refusals to support Ukraine's Zelensky. And, it is worth making sure that information is disseminated widely.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-statement-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
  168. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    Eh, as per above, on the freak chance that Russia "loses" to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

    2022 is the best year to solve this problem after 2014, it is unlikely there would have ever been a more favorable confluence for many reasons I have repeatedly pointed out. That Ukrainian combat effectiveness turned out higher than expected just confirms this point.

    I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn’t even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.
    No, this is an urban legend, it started years earlier, military spending was at 10% of GDP by 1936.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @Triteleia Laxa

    No, Putin’s government is a loser government. You see, if I worked for him and believed him when he said there was no chance of him invading Ukraine, I would have lied to him and told him Russians would be welcomed and it would be over in 2 days too. This is why open and democratic will always beat closed and controlled in the long run. Yes, it looks more chaotic, but that is just superficial. In reality, by getting the chaos all out in the open, it creates better results.

    To paraphrase Augustine of Hippo: if you’re going to sin or makes mistakes, do at least do it consciously or honestly.

    Amusingly, the only “Empire of Lies” that has been haunting Putin turned out to be his own bureaucracy and that is entirely his fault.

    •�LOL: RadicalCenter
    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I expected 6 million Ukrainians to flee to Germany UK and US. I didn't think of it as a place a blitzkrieg by Moscow would be welcomed. Maruipol will end up with a Srebrenica style gendercide. Every man there can expect death at this point. Not condoning it mind you, but an example will be set in that city. Absolute Terror.
  169. @Thulean Friend
    Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly "restricted". That won't hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created 'Erebrus' CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia's security agencies have tried to implement "technological sovereignty" but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:


    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

    We all know which country he hints at.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    You mean “Elbrus”? These are products of MIPS Technologies which are produced in Taiwan.

    I’m not sure what will be the effect of sanctions, but these were not important products anyway.

    Overall, the effect of sanctions in Russia, can probably be exaggerated. Russia doesn’t have much hi-tech industry without sanctions, so sanctions relating to “hi-tech” industry might not have not much directly to destroy or damage, except to raise prices for consumers.

    Simply, people will still be able to access AMD and Intel processors, but supply will pass through more “man in the middle” and prices will rise.

    Even Iran has access to all these Western consumer products, just in prices only the upper-middle class can afford.

    “Big money” in terms of internationally competitive industries in Russia is oil, gas, copper, aluminum, diamonds, zinc, etc.

    Companies like Alrosa, Rusal, Nornickel, Severstal, Gazprom, etc dominate the world in their sectors. They are often world leaders for those industries.

    Deripaska is an example, where his wealth is not from GAZ group (automobile manufacturing), but from RUSAL (aluminium production).

    Trump’s sanctions apparently throw GAZ to becoming losing industry (requiring government money), but this was never a source of “big money” anyway. His “big money” is from RUSAL.

    Russia’s important industries (oil, gas, minerals, etc) might be much more resistant against sanctions.

    On the other side, a significant proportion of profits of these industries, are washed outside Russia and returned to Russia as “FDI”. It’s possible sanctions scared people and a lot of these past profits might not be returned, but who can say. Maybe future profits, will be less washed outside? This is probably unlikely. Maybe in 20 years, economists will write some papers.

    An oligarch like Altushkin is a British citizen, that lives most of the year in Great Britain, with all their family being British citizens living permanently in UK, but perhaps they will have more difficulty to wash profits of Russian industries into England and back into Russia again.

  170. S says:
    @Thulean Friend
    Required reading

    https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1500203752187437061

    The US will fight this war to the last Ukrainian. If the war is lost then an insurgency strategy will be pursued. It was never about Ukraine, it was only about harming Russia. Ukrainians are mere cannon fodder in Washington's eyes.

    Boggles my mind that Ukrainians do not see this cynical strategy for what it is.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @S

    The US will fight this war to the last Ukrainian. If the war is lost then an insurgency strategy will be pursued. It was never about Ukraine, it was only about harming Russia.

    Quite true.

    A primary objective of the world wars, including the third one now in the works, and each utilizing (a not to be over looked) ever eastward moving ‘crisis in Eastern Europe’ as their starting flashpoints, is the reduction and ultimate destruction of Russia and the Russian people.

    Ukrainians are mere cannon fodder in Washington’s eyes…Boggles my mind that Ukrainians do not see this cynical strategy for what it is.

    True again.

    While many (myself included) are quite sympathetic towards Ukrainian aspirations for peoplehood, the hard reality is that, in general, the powerful elements of the elites and hangers on who have long held sway in Washington, hate the idea of identity or peoplehood, ie ‘nationalism’, in particular that of Europeon peoples, including historically, that of their own Anglo-Saxon ‘everyday’ man and woman in the US.

    This doesn’t, as you allude, preclude the breath takingly cynical momentary use of a people’s heartfelt nationalism for their own (US) strategic ends, typically giving these desperate and vulnerable people just enough support, but nothing more, to get them into real and serious trouble, before promptly abandoning them, whether it be the case of Poland in 1939, or the case of Ukraine today in 2022.

    In regards to Ukraine, the ‘poison pilling’ of these nationalist aspirations with the deliberate inclusion and support of the ‘Nazi!TM’ Azov Battalion and such, so as to ‘just in case’, both ensure it’s being hobbled and crippled in the broader eyes of the world, while simultaneously and very specifically, acting as ‘bear bait’ for Russia, inviting an attack, should not in any way be seen as mere happenstance.

    The controlled opposition, the modern day pied pipers of Hamelin who offer up a faux hope of an organic peoplehood to their respective American and Russian peoples via their largely empty and symbolic acts, Trump and Putin, the one historically a hyper-Capitalist, the other having been a committed Communist and career KGB officer, each in reality representating different wings of the so called ‘progressive’ internationalists camp, are amazingly also, irregardless of context, labeled ‘Nazis!TM’. (Have you forgotten the principles of doublethink, Winston?)

    Naturally find a way to resist these things and do something positive for your own, but on your terms, and not theirs, if only by your refusal.

    Required reading.

    Thank you!

    Some other ‘required reading’ under ‘More’ below. Excerpts (and a link) from a remarkably insightful and prescient mid-19th century US geo-political book which expounds upon the revolutionary global mission and program of the United States. Russia figures in this book quite prominently.

    Though widely distributed and reviewed at the time of it’s initial 1853 publication by a major US establishment book publisher, today it is generally unknown, and, has long been memory holed. (Geez, I wonder why?)

    [MORE]

    A description (as the book’s two authors saw it) of America’s revolutionary global mission and program, and the inherent hostility within it to any type of collectivism, in particular, that of nationalism. ‘Individualism’ is it’s mantra. Italics in original.

    ‘It is the duty of the American party to combat all European traditions which are incompatible with Americanism; but, above all, that of nationality. To vindicate individualism against nationality, is the office of America. This is, at the same time, the whole force and scope of the revolution; thus, the revolution which arose in and with America, must for ever return to it; and America, which began in revolution, must live in it, and end with it. When the dominion of nationality is crushed, and the sovereignty of the individual is attained, everywhere and everyhow, the missions of the revolution and of America will both be accomplished.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 71

    For it’s remarkable prescience and insight, I cannot recommend reading the mid-19th century New Rome enough. Though a bit dry in places, all the same, it’s well worth the few hours time spent.

    Below are a couple of excerpts from the book detailing the future evolution of US/Russian relations. [This is part of the global political situation which is to evolve immediately following a described succesful move by the US/UK to conquer and consolidate control over continental Europe’s center of power (ie specifically Germany) for itself, and having thereby unleashed a ‘world’s war’ upon the Earth in the process.]

    Expected developments in aviation technology, and US domination of the same, is to give the United States the upper hand in the coming great struggle with a ‘despotic’ and ‘absolutist’ Russia.


    ‘Thus the lines are drawn. The choirs are marshalled on each wing of the world’s stage, Russia leading the one, the United States the other. Yet the world is too small for both, and the contest must end in the downfall of the one and the victory of the other.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 109


    ‘It [air power] will give us the victory over Russian continentalism…American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons, to use our own expressive slang, ‘like a parcel of bricks.’ The New Rome; or, the United States of the World (1853) – pg 156

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/70/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/108/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/156/mode/2up

    https://archive.org/details/politicalprophec00goeb/page/n3/mode/2up

    •�Thanks: Pharmakon
  171. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it. This is not a war that Russia started, but it is one that Russia will end, very mercifully and quickly by comparison.

    Replies: @AP, @Philip Owen

    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it.

    Most of the civilian deaths in Donbas (less than 4,000) occurred in 2014-2015.

    By 2021 that number was down to 18 from January to October of that year:

    https://ukraine.un.org/en/151093-conflict-related-civilian-casualties-ukraine-8-october-2021

    Most but not all of these happened in rebel territory; some were killed by Donbas militants in government-controlled territory.

    In 2020, it had been 21 deaths, so the number was decreasing.

    To put that in perspective, this is lower than the number of automobile accident deaths in a mid-size American city, Pittsburgh (23 deaths in 2019):

    https://www.city-data.com/accidents/acc-Pittsburgh-Pennsylvania.html

    The civilian deaths almost always occurred when Donbas militants fired on Ukrainian positions and the Ukrainians returned fire. The way to end them would be to end the rebellion, either by stopping support for it or by annexing the territories and destroying Ukrainian artillery positions within range of Donbas. Invading all of Ukraine and slaughtering civilians in Kharkiv, Kiev and other cities is unnecessary for that.

    There is no moral difference between disgusting filth such as Averko trying to excuse the invasion of Ukraine by pointing out Donbas civilian deaths, and the filth that justifies killings of Muscovites and Beslan children by Chechens who lost 10,000s of civilians from Russian bombs in Grozny.

    So yes, it is morally depraved to seek to avenge the deaths in Donbas by bombing and murdering civilians in Kiev, such as this family (parents and child) who had been killed while trying to escape Irpen, a Kiev suburb:

    [MORE]

  172. @Blinky Bill
    It didn't have to be this way.

    Why did it come to this?


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNITUojXwAAGM_5.jpg

    Replies: @sudden death

    Nicely done pic, but commies are pathetic as usual – hunger genocided the most succesful food producers in Ukraine, then managed to build several big planes instead, while having to import food from capitalists and try to present it as some miraculous achievement worthy of admiring, lol

  173. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    1990s collapse

    There will not be return of the 1990s economic chaos, as this relates to transitioning from command economy to the mafia-state-capture capitalism economy.

    There is now this quasi-capitalist economy in Russia and the organization of the country has stabilized. Sanctions will not change this.

    But sanctions will create a lot of extra inflation in certain products (which is bad for consumers) and probably strengthen negative trends of the last 30 years in terms of state capture and so on.

    Sanctions might contribute more of a parallel “import substitute” economy in consumer products, which could appear increasingly similar to Israel’s economy.

    Israel allows import cartels, to make Western imports unacceptably expensive. As a result, it develops this parallel “import substitute” economy for many consumer products.

    So, if you buy a phone charger in Israel, or some ballpoint pens and socks, the product can often say “made in Israel”. All over Israel, there are little factories, producing these kind of products, which a normal country would import.

    What’s the result? Higher prices of consumer products.

    There is one proviso for using as analogy for what can happen to Russia though – which is China. China is not applying sanctions against Russia.

    Therefore the cheap Chinese consumer products will continue to flood Russia. Socks and phone chargers from China, will not be sanctioned. But if China has an increasingly captive market, prices may be higher than if it was a non-captive market.

    totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu

    Most of Russia is being asset-stripped for decades. TikTok is more scary than any Americanization, and this happens anyway.

    Population is being replaced with people from postsoviet countries only, as these are the one who do not have a better options. No, significant Indians or Africans will immigrate to Russia, unless it would become a wealthy country for normal citizens (there are not any of the incentives for attracting those immigrants of Western countries, of high salaries and high welfare).

  174. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    Correct. The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West. Those who would refuse to walk the path of glory will instead crawl along the path of pain, broken and humiliated, as is the eternal fate of cowards and traitors.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Yevardian, @AaronB, @AP

    2022 looks to be another Russian self-own, like 1914 or 1917. Many Russians were optimistic at the beginning of those disastrous misadventures, also. You have a lot of company.

    Only question is how bad it will be. Sad.

    The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West.

    If Russia wins it will be the same result, except the number of people living in misery will be greater by 25-30 million and Russians will be even poorer still due to having to maintain an occupation force and having to massively rebuild under conditions of heavy sanctions.

    •�Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    By misery you presumably mean joy, vigor, and national rejuvenation. The past weeklist has seen most of Russian nationalists' remaining goals accomplished turbo.

    Russia is not in the same weight class as Iran, let alone North Korea, so the effects of Western sanctions (and they are Western; not just China, but BRICS, couldn't care less) will be much more limited. Furthermore, Russia has plenty of leverage of its own, natural gas to Germany has been cut off today, fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world's wheat exports), etc. The world economy crashing with no survivors will mitigate any public discontent with Putin over the Russian economy's own short-term collapse.

    Replies: @A123, @Blinky Bill
  175. @Wokechoke
    @Dmitry

    If you occupy the junctions on highways in a modern country you get to pick the facilities you capture and/or Starve.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Yes, it seems like it allows the circling of cities. But then the logistics convoys are easy to defeat behind you, as you have created no wide line to circle enemy forces.

    Anyway, to return to topic of war, rather than trivial discussion about sanctions.

    Here was a discussion on “Twitter” discussing about the battle of Kiev.

    •�Replies: @Justvisiting
    @Dmitry

    Interesting discussion on urban warfare in the link.

    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to "win" is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry
  176. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    2022 looks to be another Russian self-own, like 1914 or 1917. Many Russians were optimistic at the beginning of those disastrous misadventures, also. You have a lot of company.

    Only question is how bad it will be. Sad.

    The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West.
    If Russia wins it will be the same result, except the number of people living in misery will be greater by 25-30 million and Russians will be even poorer still due to having to maintain an occupation force and having to massively rebuild under conditions of heavy sanctions.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    By misery you presumably mean joy, vigor, and national rejuvenation. The past weeklist has seen most of Russian nationalists’ remaining goals accomplished turbo.

    Russia is not in the same weight class as Iran, let alone North Korea, so the effects of Western sanctions (and they are Western; not just China, but BRICS, couldn’t care less) will be much more limited. Furthermore, Russia has plenty of leverage of its own, natural gas to Germany has been cut off today, fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world’s wheat exports), etc. The world economy crashing with no survivors will mitigate any public discontent with Putin over the Russian economy’s own short-term collapse.

    •�Disagree: Corvinus
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world’s wheat exports), etc.
    There are three types of countries:

    -1- Food & Energy independent
    -2- Independent for only one of the two
    -3- Dependant on both food & energy imports

    You are correct that Russia is in Category 1. The U.S. is also Category 1, very long on food calories, and can easily turn up the knobs on hydrocarbon production once Not-The-President Biden departs.

    Much of Europe is Category 2. The French have insisted on the expensive Common Agricultural Policy [CAP] production level for foodstuffs. That subsidy is now a huge win. However, Europe could be short on energy until other gas transport lines are finished, most notably EastMed.

    The Category 3 country that immediately springs to mind is China. It imports both hydrocarbons and food calories. Short-term Ukraine is going to lose one or more planting seasons due to the fighting. While I am generally cynical about Elite CCP arrogance, apparently XI sees the problem coming. While he is not enthusiastic about sanctions, he is staying in the global agricultural and banking system that will have a calorie surplus available for purchase.

    A planned decoupling that takes a decade or more, could be a win for Chinese workers. A sudden decoupling that creates a food calorie shortfall, would be catastrophic for low income Chinese.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin


    https://twitter.com/Dragondescendan/status/1500655326021894147?s=20&t=1cY9BgpA3_704aYnftTQuQ
  177. @Dmitry
    @Wokechoke

    Yes, it seems like it allows the circling of cities. But then the logistics convoys are easy to defeat behind you, as you have created no wide line to circle enemy forces.


    -

    Anyway, to return to topic of war, rather than trivial discussion about sanctions.

    Here was a discussion on "Twitter" discussing about the battle of Kiev.

    https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500284222598049793

    Replies: @Justvisiting

    Interesting discussion on urban warfare in the link.

    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to “win” is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @Justvisiting


    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to “win” is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.
    You are correct. I have been using the phrase LOSE-LOSE for awhile now.

    Russia can grind out a "War Win" if they have to. Logistics are on their side. However, mass casualties and wholesale devastation lead towards "Losing the Peace".

    Zelensky needs to dump the WEF Europeans. The Davos Elites do not have Ukraine's best interests in mind. The U.S. also needs MAGA to come back, so we can dump the WEF European Elites.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Dmitry
    @Justvisiting

    Yes, entering cities will be a dystopian level of violence.

    I'm wondering if anyone here has read books about the wars in Grozny, or Battle of Berlin, etc?

    We have even a couple of educated people here like German Reader, who can read books.

    Also I was expecting Yevardian at least to read some books about Grozny.

    -

    There was an interesting discussion from YouTube about the war so far by military experts. Exaggeration in the beginning about economic effects so far in Russia.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
  178. A123 says: •�Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    By misery you presumably mean joy, vigor, and national rejuvenation. The past weeklist has seen most of Russian nationalists' remaining goals accomplished turbo.

    Russia is not in the same weight class as Iran, let alone North Korea, so the effects of Western sanctions (and they are Western; not just China, but BRICS, couldn't care less) will be much more limited. Furthermore, Russia has plenty of leverage of its own, natural gas to Germany has been cut off today, fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world's wheat exports), etc. The world economy crashing with no survivors will mitigate any public discontent with Putin over the Russian economy's own short-term collapse.

    Replies: @A123, @Blinky Bill

    fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world’s wheat exports), etc.

    There are three types of countries:

    -1- Food & Energy independent
    -2- Independent for only one of the two
    -3- Dependant on both food & energy imports

    You are correct that Russia is in Category 1. The U.S. is also Category 1, very long on food calories, and can easily turn up the knobs on hydrocarbon production once Not-The-President Biden departs.

    Much of Europe is Category 2. The French have insisted on the expensive Common Agricultural Policy [CAP] production level for foodstuffs. That subsidy is now a huge win. However, Europe could be short on energy until other gas transport lines are finished, most notably EastMed.

    The Category 3 country that immediately springs to mind is China. It imports both hydrocarbons and food calories. Short-term Ukraine is going to lose one or more planting seasons due to the fighting. While I am generally cynical about Elite CCP arrogance, apparently XI sees the problem coming. While he is not enthusiastic about sanctions, he is staying in the global agricultural and banking system that will have a calorie surplus available for purchase.

    A planned decoupling that takes a decade or more, could be a win for Chinese workers. A sudden decoupling that creates a food calorie shortfall, would be catastrophic for low income Chinese.

    PEACE 😇

  179. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    No, Putin's government is a loser government. You see, if I worked for him and believed him when he said there was no chance of him invading Ukraine, I would have lied to him and told him Russians would be welcomed and it would be over in 2 days too. This is why open and democratic will always beat closed and controlled in the long run. Yes, it looks more chaotic, but that is just superficial. In reality, by getting the chaos all out in the open, it creates better results.

    To paraphrase Augustine of Hippo: if you're going to sin or makes mistakes, do at least do it consciously or honestly.

    Amusingly, the only "Empire of Lies" that has been haunting Putin turned out to be his own bureaucracy and that is entirely his fault.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    I expected 6 million Ukrainians to flee to Germany UK and US. I didn’t think of it as a place a blitzkrieg by Moscow would be welcomed. Maruipol will end up with a Srebrenica style gendercide. Every man there can expect death at this point. Not condoning it mind you, but an example will be set in that city. Absolute Terror.

  180. A123 says: •�Website
    @Justvisiting
    @Dmitry

    Interesting discussion on urban warfare in the link.

    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to "win" is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry

    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to “win” is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.

    You are correct. I have been using the phrase LOSE-LOSE for awhile now.

    Russia can grind out a “War Win” if they have to. Logistics are on their side. However, mass casualties and wholesale devastation lead towards “Losing the Peace“.

    Zelensky needs to dump the WEF Europeans. The Davos Elites do not have Ukraine’s best interests in mind. The U.S. also needs MAGA to come back, so we can dump the WEF European Elites.

    PEACE 😇

  181. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @Mr. Hack


    If Ukraine and Zelensky were under the thumb of Washington, he clearly would not be making such loud cries of cowardice. There was also the late shipments of weaponry that could have been made much earlier.
    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not. He doesn't seem as intelligent or shameless as Navalny, so I suspect he doesn't, it's always more effective that way regardless. I only feel sorry for Ukrainians caught up in all this whole sham.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @German_reader

    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not.

    imo it’s a mistake to claim Zelensky et al don’t have agency of their own, there were plenty of examples during the original Cold war where various 3rd world actors manipulated the superpowers to their own benefit.
    I would even agree with Mr Hack about the no-fly-zone stuff, just that I view it totally negatively and resent Zelensky for it. This is a classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden’s administration doesn’t let itself be manipulated into such a dangerous decision by social media hysteria and Ukrainian lobbyism.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ...classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden’s administration doesn’t let itself be manipulated..
    Every Western leader of consequence has gone out of his way to say that "there will be no escalation, no NATO fighting Russia in Ukraine". BoJo restated it today. That doesn't mean it won't happen - nobody is in control - any event can be used for an escalation.

    There is also the unfortunate reality that the West has used all of its non-military bullets, they have nowhere to go if their hysterical media and public demand more. And Russia has no reason to hold back, what else can West 'sanction'?

    This will not be behind us until the shooting stops, that could take years. Never show a half-done job to a moron. One of the long-term consequences will be that Central Europe (Germany, V4) will become more isolated and poorer. The old-style Europe has been propped up by V4+, as we become a borderland with our own problems the liberal Brussels will be more powerful.
    , @Gerard1234
    @German_reader

    Dont be thick. Certainly the Warsaw Pact Communist states were WAY LESS puppet than this sick regime.

    Court system of 404, including main judge and Prosecutor appointments is literally made by the EU and US.

    Education and "culture" policy is entirely dictated by Gosdep/North American Bandera excrement from 40s/50s who setup and were in control of ALL "Ukrainian" institutes (so-called), associations etc in North America (i. E desperate Galician diaspora of 1800s/early 1900s have had ZERO role in setting up this fake identity)

    Defence and Intelligence is entirely controlled by US. The wacko Hitler/Napoleon trashbag American Jew Vindmann claims he was offered job of Ukrop Defence Minister TWICE. Even this current Defence Minister, casually appointed only at the start of Russian border buildup and claims of invasion by the Americans, ex lawyer, total whore, suggests he is a non-entity. If Defence Ministers are worth anything then they dont get randomly appointed at

    Literally all "Ze's" statements before and during this Operation Z, is blatant American managed PR. Why this loser, idiotic and illogical nonsense from him?
    ........

    Because ukrainianism or Ukrainian is not an ethnicity or nation, but a deathcult

    Replies: @sudden death
  182. @songbird
    Interesting how we are seeing an inversion of past narratives in the IT field.

    In the '80s, Steve Jobs was arguing in favor of lifting the export ban on computers for Russia, saying that each computer was a revolutionary tool that could help spread freedom. Back then, technology within Russia was tightly controlled, at least in theory, and xerox machines were kept behind locked doors, with some level of political supervision, so being able to hook-up a printer to a computer was a big deal. Western businesses, everyone and their brother, were smuggling computers into Russia, to use them as sweeteners to try to work business deals.

    Now, Apple has stopped selling its products even though they are smaller and more powerful and easier to hide. Microsoft has also stopped selling its products.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Gerard1234

    In the 90s, ironically it was entry point through Chechnya via black market of course, that Russia and Ukraine received most of their western computers.

    Russian authorities were actually getting quite good at cracking down on piracy of films, games etc (relative to most countries), there should hopefully be non-enforcement of these things now

    •�Thanks: songbird
  183. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    America has blown up the dollar system in spectacular style, this is a massive loss for the US. No one in Europe will be thankful when the horrific economic consequences of the whole Ukrainian adventure are being felt.

    •�Agree: Barbarossa
  184. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it. This is not a war that Russia started, but it is one that Russia will end, very mercifully and quickly by comparison.

    Replies: @AP, @Philip Owen

    Bullshit. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to a military surplus dealer in Taganarog.With hindsight clearly intended for Malofeev’s army. The scenario planning was published in 2005. 80,000 men were thought to be required to take Novorossiya. In the end they went for Donbass with 25,000. Russia via irregulars very very definitely started this war and planned it a decade before Maidan. It is not in doubt. The Third Empire even descirbes a Maidan pushed by Russia.

    When the Ukrainian army thrashed them, they retreated to civilian areas. Since then they have regularly shell Ukrainian positions from civilian cover. When a man dies the Ukrainians shoot back.

    The fascist mercenaries need this reaction. Conflict keeps their hold on the civilian population. Most of the dead are soldiers anyway, the largest number being Ukrainian.

  185. @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The sad thing is that Russia's future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine. If it manages to take over some of Ukraine's cities, think of all of the time and resources it will consume in trying to subdue the insurgent countryside (that will spill over into the cities as well). Imagine the very worst IRA scenarios imaginable, that is what probably awaits Russia. Drat! There goes your comfy position as a director of some transhumanist research facility.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @yakushimaru

    It is one thing to check all the caucasian looking men on the metro *didn’t work anyway I was two cars away from being blown up, another to check all men.

  186. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not.
    imo it's a mistake to claim Zelensky et al don't have agency of their own, there were plenty of examples during the original Cold war where various 3rd world actors manipulated the superpowers to their own benefit.
    I would even agree with Mr Hack about the no-fly-zone stuff, just that I view it totally negatively and resent Zelensky for it. This is a classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden's administration doesn't let itself be manipulated into such a dangerous decision by social media hysteria and Ukrainian lobbyism.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Gerard1234

    …classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden’s administration doesn’t let itself be manipulated..

    Every Western leader of consequence has gone out of his way to say that “there will be no escalation, no NATO fighting Russia in Ukraine“. BoJo restated it today. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen – nobody is in control – any event can be used for an escalation.

    There is also the unfortunate reality that the West has used all of its non-military bullets, they have nowhere to go if their hysterical media and public demand more. And Russia has no reason to hold back, what else can West ‘sanction‘?

    This will not be behind us until the shooting stops, that could take years. Never show a half-done job to a moron. One of the long-term consequences will be that Central Europe (Germany, V4) will become more isolated and poorer. The old-style Europe has been propped up by V4+, as we become a borderland with our own problems the liberal Brussels will be more powerful.

  187. @Yevardian
    @Yevardian

    Accidently posted early. I meant to say, Hitler hardly desired or planned for a continental war, at least in 1939, given such planning, but that's what he got. And Russia is much less autarkic than Germany then.

    @Mr.Hack

    The sad thing is that Russia’s future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine.
    No reason to gloat, your countrymen, as far as they can be separated from Russia, will be even worse off in the event of a total Russian collapse, along with practically all the old Soviet 'Near-Abroad' generally. But you can consider you co-patriots lucky, Armenia will simply be wiped off the face of the earth, to join other vanished nations like the Assyrians, Old Prussians, Phrygians, Tocharians, etc.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    No reason to gloat, your countrymen, as far as they can be separated from Russia, will be even worse off in the event of a total Russian collapse, along with practically all the old Soviet ‘Near-Abroad’ generally. But you can consider you co-patriots lucky, Armenia will simply be wiped off the face of the earth, to join other vanished nations like the Assyrians, Old Prussians, Phrygians, Tocharians, etc.

    Who’s gloating? You seem indignant towards Ukrainians for putting up a valiant resistance to straightforward Russian aggression. Why not squarely blame Russia for all of the tragedy and chaos that you envision occuring because of these events? They are, after all, the ones responsible for instigating this carnage, not the Ukrainians. Wasn’t February 23 a much better day for the world, the day before the Russians decided to rid Ukraine of “Nazis”? Or do you buy that crap too?

  188. @Yevardian
    @Svidomyatheart


    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that's all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.


    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart

    but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap

    I don’t see how Thucydides Trap logic applies to this case. That concept was formulated to describe a specific set of circumstances; it’s not a catch-all term for any situation in which the aggressor felt they “had to” go to war.

    •�Agree: German_reader
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @silviosilver

    In case you've not seen it, powerful take.

    By attributing the war primarily to the growth of Athenian power and the fear it caused Sparta, Thucydides proved to be a stooge and conduit of Spartan talking points, denied its agency, and was probably on their payroll.

    Replies: @Yevardian
  189. Adept says:
    @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.
    These apocalyptic scenarios seem exaggerated to me, and tbh I'm starting to really resent Russians for their "If that would happen, we'd rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons" bs.
    That being said, ideally there would be some attempt for a diplomatic solution (treaty about Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of Crimea, maybe Donbass too). But what's not acceptable from a Western or Ukrainian perspective is "demilitarization" and "denazification" of all of Ukraine, and Putin seems to be unwilling to go for anything less...so in a sense it's his fault too, if this becomes an all-or-nothing contest.

    Replies: @Adept

    tbh I’m starting to really resent Russians for their “If that would happen, we’d rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons” bs.

    Hold up. Didn’t you, just the other day, write the following?

    I think the hardcore Nazis who committed suicide or died fighting in 1945 were right on a fundamental level, and Germans then should have done the same collectively instead of embarking on the increasingly grotesque farce this country has become

    (Previous open thread, post 879.)

    It’s the same exact sentiment — something along the lines of “the world without ______ isn’t a world worth living in,” but writ very large.

    Why resent anyone for feelings you have yourself expressed?

    As an aside, for whatever it’s worth, Russia’s invasion looks like a disaster on every possible level. Terrible tactics. Terrible operational planning. Terrible strategy. Terrible disregard for morality and the sanctity of human life.

    •�Agree: AP
    •�Disagree: RadicalCenter
    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Adept

    There's nothing in my comment about destroying the entire world (which I wouldn't support in any case), so you don't have a point.
    And regarding the present situation, I find such sentiments just pathological. If Russia should indeed descend into anarchy, it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn't have taken. People who enthusiastically support that gamble have no right to complain if it fails and leads to a negative outcome.

    Replies: @Adept, @silviosilver
  190. German_reader says:
    @Adept
    @German_reader


    tbh I’m starting to really resent Russians for their “If that would happen, we’d rather take down the entire world with our nuclear weapons” bs.

    Hold up. Didn't you, just the other day, write the following?

    I think the hardcore Nazis who committed suicide or died fighting in 1945 were right on a fundamental level, and Germans then should have done the same collectively instead of embarking on the increasingly grotesque farce this country has become
    (Previous open thread, post 879.)

    It's the same exact sentiment -- something along the lines of "the world without ______ isn't a world worth living in," but writ very large.

    Why resent anyone for feelings you have yourself expressed?

    As an aside, for whatever it's worth, Russia's invasion looks like a disaster on every possible level. Terrible tactics. Terrible operational planning. Terrible strategy. Terrible disregard for morality and the sanctity of human life.

    Replies: @German_reader

    There’s nothing in my comment about destroying the entire world (which I wouldn’t support in any case), so you don’t have a point.
    And regarding the present situation, I find such sentiments just pathological. If Russia should indeed descend into anarchy, it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn’t have taken. People who enthusiastically support that gamble have no right to complain if it fails and leads to a negative outcome.

    •�Agree: Yevardian
    •�Replies: @Adept
    @German_reader

    I agree with your second paragraph.

    But as regards the first, I think that there's little difference. As the Germans should (?) have fought tooth and claw to the very last man (and woman, and child?) so certain Russians are expressing a desire that they should do the same. The Russians have better tools, is all. The feeling is the same.

    That said, the estimates of how many working, deployable nuclear weapons the Russians have is probably too high by an order of magnitude. I doubt they're capable of destroying the entire world, though they are assuredly capable of doing a lot of damage on their way down.

    Replies: @German_reader
    , @silviosilver
    @German_reader


    it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn’t have taken.
    I'm not so sure it was as reckless as all that. For an example of abject amoral recklessness, I don't think you can do better than America's invasion of Iraq. I don't just mean the obviously mendacious pretext of "WMD", but the chimerical project of remaking Iraq into a liberal democracy - even if such a thing were possible, no moral theory of international relations could possibly have supported launching a war to bring it about. Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin's decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable. If there have been unforeseen difficulties, well hey, that's life.

    (I am bringing this up because I have been listening to talks by various American foreign policy "experts" on the Ukraine war and right now I'm rather ticked off by their moral grandstanding.)

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa
  191. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    This is basic stage management, perhaps Zelensky is aware of his role, perhaps not.
    imo it's a mistake to claim Zelensky et al don't have agency of their own, there were plenty of examples during the original Cold war where various 3rd world actors manipulated the superpowers to their own benefit.
    I would even agree with Mr Hack about the no-fly-zone stuff, just that I view it totally negatively and resent Zelensky for it. This is a classic case of a weaker side trying to widen the war and get external support for their own narrow objectives. I hope Biden's administration doesn't let itself be manipulated into such a dangerous decision by social media hysteria and Ukrainian lobbyism.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Gerard1234

    Dont be thick. Certainly the Warsaw Pact Communist states were WAY LESS puppet than this sick regime.

    Court system of 404, including main judge and Prosecutor appointments is literally made by the EU and US.

    Education and “culture” policy is entirely dictated by Gosdep/North American Bandera excrement from 40s/50s who setup and were in control of ALL “Ukrainian” institutes (so-called), associations etc in North America (i. E desperate Galician diaspora of 1800s/early 1900s have had ZERO role in setting up this fake identity)

    Defence and Intelligence is entirely controlled by US. The wacko Hitler/Napoleon trashbag American Jew Vindmann claims he was offered job of Ukrop Defence Minister TWICE. Even this current Defence Minister, casually appointed only at the start of Russian border buildup and claims of invasion by the Americans, ex lawyer, total whore, suggests he is a non-entity. If Defence Ministers are worth anything then they dont get randomly appointed at

    Literally all “Ze’s” statements before and during this Operation Z, is blatant American managed PR. Why this loser, idiotic and illogical nonsense from him?
    ……..

    Because ukrainianism or Ukrainian is not an ethnicity or nation, but a deathcult

    •�LOL: Yevardian
    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Gerard1234


    Operation Z
    btw, RF notably has adopted Latin alphabet (Z,V) for their grand military opus, instead of Cyrilic, very nice development towards further westernization ;)
  192. @Gerard1234
    @German_reader

    Dont be thick. Certainly the Warsaw Pact Communist states were WAY LESS puppet than this sick regime.

    Court system of 404, including main judge and Prosecutor appointments is literally made by the EU and US.

    Education and "culture" policy is entirely dictated by Gosdep/North American Bandera excrement from 40s/50s who setup and were in control of ALL "Ukrainian" institutes (so-called), associations etc in North America (i. E desperate Galician diaspora of 1800s/early 1900s have had ZERO role in setting up this fake identity)

    Defence and Intelligence is entirely controlled by US. The wacko Hitler/Napoleon trashbag American Jew Vindmann claims he was offered job of Ukrop Defence Minister TWICE. Even this current Defence Minister, casually appointed only at the start of Russian border buildup and claims of invasion by the Americans, ex lawyer, total whore, suggests he is a non-entity. If Defence Ministers are worth anything then they dont get randomly appointed at

    Literally all "Ze's" statements before and during this Operation Z, is blatant American managed PR. Why this loser, idiotic and illogical nonsense from him?
    ........

    Because ukrainianism or Ukrainian is not an ethnicity or nation, but a deathcult

    Replies: @sudden death

    Operation Z

    btw, RF notably has adopted Latin alphabet (Z,V) for their grand military opus, instead of Cyrilic, very nice development towards further westernization 😉

  193. Christo Grozev talking about Putin’s willingness to use tactical nukes on NATO countries, starting at 6:50. Something I found posted on a metaculus prediction. Given how he previously perpetuated the questionable claim of Navalny being poisoned with Novichok, can’t be sure if it is NATO fearmongering.

    •�Thanks: mal
  194. @German_reader
    @Adept

    There's nothing in my comment about destroying the entire world (which I wouldn't support in any case), so you don't have a point.
    And regarding the present situation, I find such sentiments just pathological. If Russia should indeed descend into anarchy, it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn't have taken. People who enthusiastically support that gamble have no right to complain if it fails and leads to a negative outcome.

    Replies: @Adept, @silviosilver

    I agree with your second paragraph.

    But as regards the first, I think that there’s little difference. As the Germans should (?) have fought tooth and claw to the very last man (and woman, and child?) so certain Russians are expressing a desire that they should do the same. The Russians have better tools, is all. The feeling is the same.

    That said, the estimates of how many working, deployable nuclear weapons the Russians have is probably too high by an order of magnitude. I doubt they’re capable of destroying the entire world, though they are assuredly capable of doing a lot of damage on their way down.

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Adept


    As the Germans should (?) have fought tooth and claw to the very last man
    I didn't even write they should have fought, just killed themselves. Because given the trajectory this idiotic country I'm living in the end result won't be much different. But I realize most people reading such a comment will think it crass, nihilistic and demented, and I don't really have any interest in defending it any further. It was an emotional outburst I probably should have kept to myself.

    I doubt they’re capable of destroying the entire world
    I don't see any reason to doubt they're able to destroy much of Western Europe and the US. Which seems to be an immense source of pride (maybe their only one?) for many Russian patriots, given how often they emphasize it.
  195. German_reader says:
    @Adept
    @German_reader

    I agree with your second paragraph.

    But as regards the first, I think that there's little difference. As the Germans should (?) have fought tooth and claw to the very last man (and woman, and child?) so certain Russians are expressing a desire that they should do the same. The Russians have better tools, is all. The feeling is the same.

    That said, the estimates of how many working, deployable nuclear weapons the Russians have is probably too high by an order of magnitude. I doubt they're capable of destroying the entire world, though they are assuredly capable of doing a lot of damage on their way down.

    Replies: @German_reader

    As the Germans should (?) have fought tooth and claw to the very last man

    I didn’t even write they should have fought, just killed themselves. Because given the trajectory this idiotic country I’m living in the end result won’t be much different. But I realize most people reading such a comment will think it crass, nihilistic and demented, and I don’t really have any interest in defending it any further. It was an emotional outburst I probably should have kept to myself.

    I doubt they’re capable of destroying the entire world

    I don’t see any reason to doubt they’re able to destroy much of Western Europe and the US. Which seems to be an immense source of pride (maybe their only one?) for many Russian patriots, given how often they emphasize it.

  196. @German_reader
    @Adept

    There's nothing in my comment about destroying the entire world (which I wouldn't support in any case), so you don't have a point.
    And regarding the present situation, I find such sentiments just pathological. If Russia should indeed descend into anarchy, it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn't have taken. People who enthusiastically support that gamble have no right to complain if it fails and leads to a negative outcome.

    Replies: @Adept, @silviosilver

    it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn’t have taken.

    I’m not so sure it was as reckless as all that. For an example of abject amoral recklessness, I don’t think you can do better than America’s invasion of Iraq. I don’t just mean the obviously mendacious pretext of “WMD”, but the chimerical project of remaking Iraq into a liberal democracy – even if such a thing were possible, no moral theory of international relations could possibly have supported launching a war to bring it about. Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin’s decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable. If there have been unforeseen difficulties, well hey, that’s life.

    (I am bringing this up because I have been listening to talks by various American foreign policy “experts” on the Ukraine war and right now I’m rather ticked off by their moral grandstanding.)

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @silviosilver


    Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin’s decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable.
    Can't agree, imo you're confusing moral issues with practical consequences. I have always taken a highly negative view of the Iraq war, but essentially the US got away with it (apart from a few thousand military dead - irrelevant for anybody but their relatives, a lot of debt, and some damage to its reputation, which however doesn't seem to have been that great...people have short memories, and apart maybe from Palestinians nobody really liked Saddam and his regime anyway). Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there's a direct NATO-Russia conflict. And Putin can't really walk away from Ukraine, like the US could from Iraq, there's no easy way of exiting that conflict now without endangering Putin's own rule. So imo way more reckless than Iraq.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Barbarossa
    , @Barbarossa
    @silviosilver

    American moral grandstanding is insufferable. I really hate pretense, and I would really prefer that an Empire just say that it's an Empire rather than justify itself with increasingly idiotic appeals to it's virtue.

    As you point out with the example of Iraq, America should have been sanctioned more heavily than Russia is now if "international norms" meant anything. Russia and China are correct that the system is rigged against them, not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.

    Replies: @silviosilver
  197. A123 says: •�Website
    @Yevardian
    @A123

    Could AK, or Our Benevolent Overlord finally please permanently scrub this.. thing from infesting threads here? I blocked it a long time ago, but now it's interacting with my posts.

    Replies: @A123

    I am not sure why you are so upset with me. I do not recall a specific battle.

    Also, I largely concur with your positions on the current conflict. The goal of my post was to clarify who is responsible.
    ___

    America is not monolithic.

    — There is a highly unpopular criminal faction in the U.S. Members include the SJW/DNC, NeoConDemocrats, and the current coup regime. Their ties to European Elites via WEF Davos are pretty clear. If you want to blame the anti-American, multinational SJW Globalists, feel free.

    — Main Street Americans also blame them. The incompetence of the occupied White House has created energy dependency, massive inflation, and an incredible surge in unpunished crime. If you have a suggestion on how to get rid of the Fake President, I would love to hear it. Sadly, I think we are stuck for the next three years.

    The 2nd half of the post was not even aimed at you. It was just convenient timing. Those with Jewish heritage/ancestry like are also not monolithic.

    — Palestinian Jews value their cultural & economic relationships with Russia. It is pretty clear that they empathize with Putin. After all “hostile neighbors” is a situation that plagues the Jewish religious homeland every single day.

    — Post-Judaic SJW’s, such as the ADL, are unsurprisingly full on mouth frothing, crazed, and outraged at Putin. (1)

    I suspect many people are unaware of Israel’s multiple refusals to support Ukraine’s Zelensky. And, it is worth making sure that information is disseminated widely.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-statement-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine

  198. German_reader says:
    @silviosilver
    @German_reader


    it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn’t have taken.
    I'm not so sure it was as reckless as all that. For an example of abject amoral recklessness, I don't think you can do better than America's invasion of Iraq. I don't just mean the obviously mendacious pretext of "WMD", but the chimerical project of remaking Iraq into a liberal democracy - even if such a thing were possible, no moral theory of international relations could possibly have supported launching a war to bring it about. Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin's decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable. If there have been unforeseen difficulties, well hey, that's life.

    (I am bringing this up because I have been listening to talks by various American foreign policy "experts" on the Ukraine war and right now I'm rather ticked off by their moral grandstanding.)

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa

    Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin’s decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable.

    Can’t agree, imo you’re confusing moral issues with practical consequences. I have always taken a highly negative view of the Iraq war, but essentially the US got away with it (apart from a few thousand military dead – irrelevant for anybody but their relatives, a lot of debt, and some damage to its reputation, which however doesn’t seem to have been that great…people have short memories, and apart maybe from Palestinians nobody really liked Saddam and his regime anyway). Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there’s a direct NATO-Russia conflict. And Putin can’t really walk away from Ukraine, like the US could from Iraq, there’s no easy way of exiting that conflict now without endangering Putin’s own rule. So imo way more reckless than Iraq.

    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @German_reader


    Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there’s a direct NATO-Russia conflict.
    See, I think they calculated quite correctly that America isn't going to go war with them over Ukraine. It's hard to believe they didn't foresee sanctions being amped up to the max, and it's perfectly possible that you and I are more surprised by western media and PR hysterics than Russia's leadership. Which leaves us with the unpredictability of exit scenarios. That makes the war a gamble, to be sure - I guess war always is - but I'm not prepared to condemn it as utterly reckless. Of course, you're well within your rights to see it differently, and for all I know, yours may indeed be the superior judgement.
    , @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    In terms of amoral recklessness I would agree with silviosilver that Iraq is worse. Not for America certainly, you are correct that we got off virtually scot free.

    Not so much the case for Iraqis though. Even if you consider that not many people liked Saddam the smoking hole that Iraq was reduced to and the scale of human suffering is quite unforgivable, especially when one thinks about the second tier effects like the rise of ISIS and the chaos is Syria. It's especially egregious because America had really no legitimate strategic rationale to be there.

    At least with Russia's actions in Ukraine one can point to geographical proximity/ value, historical ties and security concerns over NATO/Western influence creep. Even if one disagrees with the Russian case, at least they have one, unlike the U.S. in Iraq.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  199. This is how the mind of the average dumb-shit Slav works: The west hates Russia, if we (almost any Slavic country) show the west that we don’t like Russia too – the west will fall in love with us.

    The west is degenerate. They don’t like any of us. Who needs their love, anyway. I would prefer if they left us (all of the Slavs) alone, and concentrate on loving someone on whom they can score more points for humanism.

    I can understand why the west hates Russia (jealousy) and by extension they hate all the rest of the Slavs because they think we are lower than them, and should bow to their greatness. Maybe this applies to all Slavs – except the Russians.

    They Russians have no reason to bow to the west’s “greatness”, because they have matched – and in military accomplishments – exceeded the achievements of the west. This is what infuriates the degenerates in the west. Why can’t Russia be like Poland or Ukraine or a number of other Slavic countries and kiss west’s butt?

    Because the Russians are not in the same category as the rest of the Slavs. In terms of accomplishments in: science, art, and general civilizational achievements – the rest of the Slavs combined maybe have accomplished 10% compared to what Russia alone has done in their history. So to all of you dumb-ass Slavs – if you are looking for a butt to kiss, Russia’s is probably the best choice, at least we are of the same kind and it’s not as humiliating thing for a Slav to do, compared to cozying up to the degenerates in the west.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Honore de Ballsack


    Because the Russians are not in the same category as the rest of the Slavs. In terms of accomplishments in: science, art, and general civilizational achievements – the rest of the Slavs combined maybe have accomplished 10% compared to what Russia alone has done in their history.
    In 1812 France was light years ahead of Tzarist Empire in terms of high culture production, or as you put it "science, art, and general civilizational achievements", so according to this kind of logic Napoelon was absolutely right when he decided to stamp out Russians with the military conquest.
  200. A123 says: •�Website

    😁 Open Thread Humor😂

    Per Mr. Unz suggestion, only the first item is above the [MORE] tag.

    PEACE 😇


    [MORE]










    All of a sudden the Russian side seems much more appealing….


  201. @German_reader
    @silviosilver


    Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin’s decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable.
    Can't agree, imo you're confusing moral issues with practical consequences. I have always taken a highly negative view of the Iraq war, but essentially the US got away with it (apart from a few thousand military dead - irrelevant for anybody but their relatives, a lot of debt, and some damage to its reputation, which however doesn't seem to have been that great...people have short memories, and apart maybe from Palestinians nobody really liked Saddam and his regime anyway). Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there's a direct NATO-Russia conflict. And Putin can't really walk away from Ukraine, like the US could from Iraq, there's no easy way of exiting that conflict now without endangering Putin's own rule. So imo way more reckless than Iraq.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Barbarossa

    Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there’s a direct NATO-Russia conflict.

    See, I think they calculated quite correctly that America isn’t going to go war with them over Ukraine. It’s hard to believe they didn’t foresee sanctions being amped up to the max, and it’s perfectly possible that you and I are more surprised by western media and PR hysterics than Russia’s leadership. Which leaves us with the unpredictability of exit scenarios. That makes the war a gamble, to be sure – I guess war always is – but I’m not prepared to condemn it as utterly reckless. Of course, you’re well within your rights to see it differently, and for all I know, yours may indeed be the superior judgement.

  202. Here is probably the low use of electronic warfare.

  203. @Justvisiting
    @Dmitry

    Interesting discussion on urban warfare in the link.

    Like everything else in this conflict, it looks like the only way for both parties to "win" is to negotiate a settlement.

    Anything else is lose lose.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry

    Yes, entering cities will be a dystopian level of violence.

    I’m wondering if anyone here has read books about the wars in Grozny, or Battle of Berlin, etc?

    We have even a couple of educated people here like German Reader, who can read books.

    Also I was expecting Yevardian at least to read some books about Grozny.

    There was an interesting discussion from YouTube about the war so far by military experts. Exaggeration in the beginning about economic effects so far in Russia.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry


    We have even a couple of educated people here

    https://youtu.be/HLDlLO3Im8k
  204. @Dmitry
    @Justvisiting

    Yes, entering cities will be a dystopian level of violence.

    I'm wondering if anyone here has read books about the wars in Grozny, or Battle of Berlin, etc?

    We have even a couple of educated people here like German Reader, who can read books.

    Also I was expecting Yevardian at least to read some books about Grozny.

    -

    There was an interesting discussion from YouTube about the war so far by military experts. Exaggeration in the beginning about economic effects so far in Russia.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    We have even a couple of educated people here

    [MORE]

  205. Close fellow travelers of Karlin & Averko seen stomping out Russian protesters today throughout Russia. Over 4,300 according to this report. Instead of trying to lengthen the lifespans of people in Ukraine, these two take pleasure in seeing the deaths of women, children and the elderly.

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Informal Discussion - 60 Minutes - Culture - Sports - Pakistan - Steven Seagal - Good Twitter Accounts

    This informative exchange is indicative of what happens when the ethically flawed pro-Kiev regime Western mass media slant is substantively answered -

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214463

    -----------------------------

    Yesterday's CBS 60 Minutes feature on Ukraine conveniently omitted -

    At the UN General Assembly, the US and Ukraine were the only two delegations voting against a resolution denouncing Nazism. No mention of the Kiev regime carnage (killing in the thousands and displaced people in the hundred of thousands) in Donbass over the past 8 years and coddling to Neo-Nazis. BTW, "Slava Ukraini" is part of a term credited to Ukrainian Neo-Nazis.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8658329/chrystia-freeland-scarf-photo-ukraine/

    On the periphery of the conflict, the Biden administration has added fuel to the combustible situation.

    As stated in Antiwar.com and on WABC Talk Radio in New York, my views on the matter aren't ethically lacking when compared to Western mass media at large.

    -----------------------------

    Re: https://www.rt.com/news/551327-soprano-fired-opera-putin/

    It's not likely that Anna Netrebko's Ukrainian replacement will be asked to formally denounce the Kiev regime for its carnage in Donbass and coddling to Neo-Nazis.

    A closely related version of the following was sent to The Met's online contact form and its email address -

    The Met's bigoted stance on the situation in Ukraine deserves a moral loathing. Did The Met ever nation shame others for when their respective nation launched a war killing and displacing many?

    FYI, the Kiev regime side is far from innocent. Over the past eight years, it has killed and displaced en masse, further away from central and western Europe. On the ground UN/OSCE inspectors have confirmed this.

    Bleep you all to hell if you aren't going to recognize and apologize for your arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and bigoted stance.

    -----------------------------

    One radical turn (formally banning Russia, with a hypocritically applied "neutral" status) apparently leads to another -

    https://www.rt.com/sport/551367-ivan-kuliak-russian-gymnastics-world-cup/

    -----------------------------

    https://www.trtworld.com/asia/are-we-your-slaves-pakistani-premier-hits-out-at-west-over-russia-letter-55313

    -----------------------------

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/putin-pal-steven-seagal-speaks-out-on-ukraine-invasion-i-look-at-both-as-one-family/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_7084636

    -----------------------------

    Among the good twitter reads are those of Clint Ehrlich and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mr. Hack
  206. @German_reader
    @silviosilver


    Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin’s decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable.
    Can't agree, imo you're confusing moral issues with practical consequences. I have always taken a highly negative view of the Iraq war, but essentially the US got away with it (apart from a few thousand military dead - irrelevant for anybody but their relatives, a lot of debt, and some damage to its reputation, which however doesn't seem to have been that great...people have short memories, and apart maybe from Palestinians nobody really liked Saddam and his regime anyway). Whereas the consequences of invading Ukraine are already highly negative for Russia, and could become possibly even catastrophic if there's a direct NATO-Russia conflict. And Putin can't really walk away from Ukraine, like the US could from Iraq, there's no easy way of exiting that conflict now without endangering Putin's own rule. So imo way more reckless than Iraq.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Barbarossa

    In terms of amoral recklessness I would agree with silviosilver that Iraq is worse. Not for America certainly, you are correct that we got off virtually scot free.

    Not so much the case for Iraqis though. Even if you consider that not many people liked Saddam the smoking hole that Iraq was reduced to and the scale of human suffering is quite unforgivable, especially when one thinks about the second tier effects like the rise of ISIS and the chaos is Syria. It’s especially egregious because America had really no legitimate strategic rationale to be there.

    At least with Russia’s actions in Ukraine one can point to geographical proximity/ value, historical ties and security concerns over NATO/Western influence creep. Even if one disagrees with the Russian case, at least they have one, unlike the U.S. in Iraq.

    •�Agree: Yahya
    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    International response, also relates to saying to everyone there would be no invasion, then invading, with lack of casus belli.

    They did a dozen small false flag attacks in Donbass and Crimea. They evacuated some "refugees" in a group of buses, which were children from orphanage. Prerecorded videos with metadata not matching the dates. They talked about "genocide" for a couple days. But there was lack of effort to create a coherent narrative or false flag.

    In the end, everyone saw it followed what Zhirinovsky had already leaked. It was like (to copy your name) Operation Barbarossa, with the 4am surprise attack, with no declaration of war.

    In 1999, with the Second Chechen War, they prepared with much more effort for the casus belli, operating false flag attacks with bombs of residential buildings in Moscow.

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view.

    Elaborate false flags with hundreds of casualties, can create more international acceptance of war, compared to some Mukden Incident or Gleiwitz incident.

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war, is what happened, is one of most difficult to present to the international community. Even with Pearl Harbor there was a declaration of war, although only given late. Russia is still not declared war with Ukraine. It's legally still peacetime. That's why it's important in Russia to call this a "special military operation" and illegal to call it war.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Barbarossa, @mal
  207. @silviosilver
    @German_reader


    it will be the consequence of a reckless gamble which Putin needn’t have taken.
    I'm not so sure it was as reckless as all that. For an example of abject amoral recklessness, I don't think you can do better than America's invasion of Iraq. I don't just mean the obviously mendacious pretext of "WMD", but the chimerical project of remaking Iraq into a liberal democracy - even if such a thing were possible, no moral theory of international relations could possibly have supported launching a war to bring it about. Compared to that operational and ethical debacle, Putin's decision seems carefully considered (both the objectives and the opportunistic timing) and eminently justifiable. If there have been unforeseen difficulties, well hey, that's life.

    (I am bringing this up because I have been listening to talks by various American foreign policy "experts" on the Ukraine war and right now I'm rather ticked off by their moral grandstanding.)

    Replies: @German_reader, @Barbarossa

    American moral grandstanding is insufferable. I really hate pretense, and I would really prefer that an Empire just say that it’s an Empire rather than justify itself with increasingly idiotic appeals to it’s virtue.

    As you point out with the example of Iraq, America should have been sanctioned more heavily than Russia is now if “international norms” meant anything. Russia and China are correct that the system is rigged against them, not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.

    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @Barbarossa


    not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.
    Neither do I. In fact, I'm not even convinced they are relatively more virtuous. Though it's sad to dwell on, if you're seeking virtue, the arena of international relations is the last place you should look. All states were formed by aggression, and it's only a matter of going back far enough in time to find it and cast self-justificatory aspersions over it. No one's hands are entirely clean. But in terms of having made redress for past misdeeds, the west actually looks pretty good in comparison to everybody else.

    Replies: @Barbarossa
  208. @Thulean Friend
    Facebook is now blocked in Russia. Twitter is reportedly "restricted". That won't hurt the country, but there will be a deeper technological embargo on Russia. Moscow had grand plans unveiled last year:

    Russia To Build RISC-V Processors for Laptops: 8-core, 2 GHz, 12nm, 2025

    Russian outlet Vedomosti.ru today is reporting that the conglomerate Rostec, a Russian state-backed corporation specializing in investment in technology, has penned a deal with server company Yadro and silicon design company Syntacore to develop RISC-V processors for computers, laptops, and servers. Initial reports are suggesting that Syntacore will develop a powerful enough RISC-V design to power government and education systems by 2025.

    The cost of the project is reported to be around 30 billion rubles ($400m), with that the organizers of the project plan to sell 60,000 systems based around new processors containing RISC-V cores as the main processing cores. The reports state that the goal is to build an 8-core processor, running at 2 GHz, using a 12-nanometer process, which presumably means GlobalFoundries but at this point it is unclear. Out of the project funding, two-thirds will be provided by ‘anchor customers’ (such as Rostec and subsidiaries), while the final third will come from the federal budget. The systems these processors will go into will operate initially at Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science, as well as the Ministry of Health.
    Russia can now kiss these plans goodbye.

    Russia has also created 'Erebrus' CPUs in the past as an x86 alternative to Intel and AMD but their own interior ministry rejected them and scandalously preferred Intel processors. Russia's security agencies have tried to implement "technological sovereignty" but this has clearly failed up until now. The upcoming embargoes will make it all but impossible.

    That means they have to ditch any plans on self-reliance. There is only one option left:


    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1499754937672155137

    We all know which country he hints at.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Beckow, @Not Raul, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill

    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Blinky Bill

    See it’s things like this. I’ve noticed the interest the Indians have shown in Ukraine. The Anglosphere only has so much power here. There’s 2.5 billion people who are possibly rooting for Russia.
  209. @Yellowface Anon
    @Ron Unz

    Mearsheimer's been right all along, but he definitely didn't read Putin's essay on Ukrainian statehood. Ironic that Ukraine falls before his obsession, Taiwan.

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/U.S.-engagement-with-China-a-strategic-blunder-Mearsheimer

    The question in these instances always becomes, "Who gets hurt more?" If you could do serious damage to the Chinese economy and only minimal damage to the American economy or the Japanese economy, you would pay that price.
    My reading of the interview is US setting up a 2nd Ukraine as a trap for China to walk into with an assault. What is being done to Russia economically is a trial of what will be done to China.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @bombthe3gorgesdam

    Why do you say Mearsheimer is obsessed with Taiwan? Is it because he believes it makes good strategic sense for America to defend Taiwan from china? Are the chinese obsessed with Taiwan? This is just manipulative, emotional language from you, yellowface. Speak plainly, like a white man.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @bombthe3gorgesdam

    He has been forecasting China becoming a superpower will be surrounded by a group of East & SE Asian countries spearheaded by the US. Taiwan is the focus of the conflict, and that will be exploited to entrap China, like using Ukraine to entrap Russia.
  210. @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Companies that have fled the Russia market:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCUaJiWQAIULD3.jpg

    Entire markets open for Indian & Chinese businesses to enter, the rest pirated/smuggled/VPN-accessed.

    Most of those are going ZERO before 2030 - WEF says so.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  211. @Honore de Ballsack
    This is how the mind of the average dumb-shit Slav works: The west hates Russia, if we (almost any Slavic country) show the west that we don’t like Russia too – the west will fall in love with us.

    The west is degenerate. They don’t like any of us. Who needs their love, anyway. I would prefer if they left us (all of the Slavs) alone, and concentrate on loving someone on whom they can score more points for humanism.

    I can understand why the west hates Russia (jealousy) and by extension they hate all the rest of the Slavs because they think we are lower than them, and should bow to their greatness. Maybe this applies to all Slavs – except the Russians.

    They Russians have no reason to bow to the west’s "greatness", because they have matched – and in military accomplishments – exceeded the achievements of the west. This is what infuriates the degenerates in the west. Why can’t Russia be like Poland or Ukraine or a number of other Slavic countries and kiss west’s butt?

    Because the Russians are not in the same category as the rest of the Slavs. In terms of accomplishments in: science, art, and general civilizational achievements – the rest of the Slavs combined maybe have accomplished 10% compared to what Russia alone has done in their history. So to all of you dumb-ass Slavs – if you are looking for a butt to kiss, Russia’s is probably the best choice, at least we are of the same kind and it’s not as humiliating thing for a Slav to do, compared to cozying up to the degenerates in the west.

    Replies: @sudden death

    Because the Russians are not in the same category as the rest of the Slavs. In terms of accomplishments in: science, art, and general civilizational achievements – the rest of the Slavs combined maybe have accomplished 10% compared to what Russia alone has done in their history.

    In 1812 France was light years ahead of Tzarist Empire in terms of high culture production, or as you put it “science, art, and general civilizational achievements”, so according to this kind of logic Napoelon was absolutely right when he decided to stamp out Russians with the military conquest.

  212. @bombthe3gorgesdam
    @Yellowface Anon

    Why do you say Mearsheimer is obsessed with Taiwan? Is it because he believes it makes good strategic sense for America to defend Taiwan from china? Are the chinese obsessed with Taiwan? This is just manipulative, emotional language from you, yellowface. Speak plainly, like a white man.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    He has been forecasting China becoming a superpower will be surrounded by a group of East & SE Asian countries spearheaded by the US. Taiwan is the focus of the conflict, and that will be exploited to entrap China, like using Ukraine to entrap Russia.

  213. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    By misery you presumably mean joy, vigor, and national rejuvenation. The past weeklist has seen most of Russian nationalists' remaining goals accomplished turbo.

    Russia is not in the same weight class as Iran, let alone North Korea, so the effects of Western sanctions (and they are Western; not just China, but BRICS, couldn't care less) will be much more limited. Furthermore, Russia has plenty of leverage of its own, natural gas to Germany has been cut off today, fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world's wheat exports), etc. The world economy crashing with no survivors will mitigate any public discontent with Putin over the Russian economy's own short-term collapse.

    Replies: @A123, @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  214. For those so interested, I just released my new article, discussing “Putin as Hitler”…

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz

    By the way, seeing you post here, thanks for paying attention to our community and starting these threads for us. I appreciate you doing this and I'm sure many other people here also.
  215. @Svidomyatheart
    Yep, just as I suspected

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-insurgency/

    They've already essentially abandoned us...only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia


    https://i.imgur.com/WfMhZxw.png

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yellowface Anon

    All of you are right in raising Bandera’s portrait high. In his time there were Poles, Russians and Jews in Ukraine, all of them essentially Whites of Central-Eastern European culture, and on the same level of sophistication as Ukrainians. Now American wokes want your country to massively import Arab and African rabble, and Russia wants to massively import Caucasian & Central Asian rabble after subjugating your land. It will be worse either way forward. If you can defend your country, you should stand at the point of cultural privilege. Don’t let Bandera roll in his grave. Never import what your country can’t ingest.

  216. @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    In terms of amoral recklessness I would agree with silviosilver that Iraq is worse. Not for America certainly, you are correct that we got off virtually scot free.

    Not so much the case for Iraqis though. Even if you consider that not many people liked Saddam the smoking hole that Iraq was reduced to and the scale of human suffering is quite unforgivable, especially when one thinks about the second tier effects like the rise of ISIS and the chaos is Syria. It's especially egregious because America had really no legitimate strategic rationale to be there.

    At least with Russia's actions in Ukraine one can point to geographical proximity/ value, historical ties and security concerns over NATO/Western influence creep. Even if one disagrees with the Russian case, at least they have one, unlike the U.S. in Iraq.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    International response, also relates to saying to everyone there would be no invasion, then invading, with lack of casus belli.

    They did a dozen small false flag attacks in Donbass and Crimea. They evacuated some “refugees” in a group of buses, which were children from orphanage. Prerecorded videos with metadata not matching the dates. They talked about “genocide” for a couple days. But there was lack of effort to create a coherent narrative or false flag.

    In the end, everyone saw it followed what Zhirinovsky had already leaked. It was like (to copy your name) Operation Barbarossa, with the 4am surprise attack, with no declaration of war.

    In 1999, with the Second Chechen War, they prepared with much more effort for the casus belli, operating false flag attacks with bombs of residential buildings in Moscow.

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view.

    Elaborate false flags with hundreds of casualties, can create more international acceptance of war, compared to some Mukden Incident or Gleiwitz incident.

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war, is what happened, is one of most difficult to present to the international community. Even with Pearl Harbor there was a declaration of war, although only given late. Russia is still not declared war with Ukraine. It’s legally still peacetime. That’s why it’s important in Russia to call this a “special military operation” and illegal to call it war.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Dmitry


    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war,
    It's just the Soviet myth, war was declared both in public and diplomatically:

    Thus Moscow not only broke but miserably betrayed the stipulations of our friendly agreement. All this was done while the rulers in the Kremlin, exactly as in the case of Finland and Rumania, up to the last moment pretended peace and friendship and drew up an ostensibly innocent démenti.

    Although until now I was forced by circumstances to keep silent again and again, the moment has now come when to continue as a mere observer would not only be a sin of omission but a crime against the German people-yes, even against the whole of Europe.

    Today something like 160 Russian divisions are standing at our frontiers. For weeks constant violations of this frontier have taken place, not only affecting us but from the far north down to Rumania.

    Russian airmen consider it sport nonchalantly to overlook these frontiers, presumably to prove to us that they already feel themselves masters of these territories.

    During the night of June 17 to June 18 Russian patrols again penetrated into the Reich's territory and could only be driven back after prolonged firing. This has brought us to the hour when it is necessary for us to take steps against this plot devised by the Jewish Anglo-Saxon warmongers and equally the Jewish rulers of the Bolshevist center in Moscow.
    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/adolf-hitler-declaration-of-war-on-the-soviet-union-june-1941

    Diplomatically:

    June 21

    The Reich Foreign Minister to the German Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Schulenburg)

    The text of the German declaration of war.
    http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/nsr/nsr-09.html#23

    Memorandum of the Conversation Between the Reich Foreign Minister and Soviet Russian Ambassador Dekanosov in the Foreign Office at 4 a. m. on June 23 [1941]

    Ribbentrop announces that Germany has begun hostilities.
    http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/nsr/nsr-09.html#27
    , @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    My comment was purely that Russia has a better case than the US did in Iraq. Not that it has an empirically bullet proof case, just a more plausible one.

    This highlights the shambolic nature of the "rules based international system". Russia and China have correctly read that American might makes right, and are acting accordingly. This is not to necessarily defend them, since , as always the blood and tears of the common man feeds the ambitions of politicians.

    I honestly don't feel that either Russia or the West is blameless in Ukraine. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the Ukrainian people are the ones who will ultimately pay for the ambitions of all sides. It's a tragedy, and I feel deeply for the Ukrainian people who were put into an untenable situation by their own government, the West, and Russia.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry
    , @mal
    @Dmitry


    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view
    I'm sorry but this is very silly Berezovsky conspiracy theory, and i say this as somebody who loves a good conspiracy theory.

    2nd Chechen war start had nothing to do with the bombings. The bombings started in September 1999 when the was was already raging for almost a month. The 2nd Chechen war started when jihadi "Peacekeeping" brigade under command of Saudi terrorist invaded Dagestan. That happened in August 1999, well before the bombings. Russia had all the casus belli it needed. So no need to bomb apartments.
  217. Comparisons with Iran, Cuba or even North Korea(!) are wildly overstated. Russia will manage this crisis far better.

    China, India, Africa and all the important players in Latinx America have unequivocally stated that they will not sanction Russia. The so-called “devastating SWIFT sanctions” have more holes than Swiss cheese. The biggest and most systemically important bank in Russia, Sberbank, has been spared because it is critical in facilitating oil and gas trade.

    This should not surprise us. Germany and Italy made these demands and are not backing off. The US is now trying to pursue an oil embargo alone on Russia, which is mostly just optics as America was never an important client. It’s also an admission of defeat that it can’t get Europe to sign on.

    Russia’s export structure is ideally suited to the moment, with commodity prices going on a rampage. The contrast with the 2014 crisis couldn’t have been more stark, when the bottom fell out and forced Russia to play defensive. In addition, the economy was less prepared for a radical shift. MIR didn’t exist then. China’s own technological sovereignty progress was far behind what it is now.

    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

    The biggest long-term challenge is to guarantee a smooth transition to Chinese alternatives once/when commodity prices calm down. Russia is too weak to go it alone and pride may prevent many Russians from accepting that. Current elevated commodity prices are giving Russia a giant umbrella to work under. Better prepare for the rain when the umbrella is gone.

    •�Agree: Barbarossa
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNK69N4XEAQ3Z9f.jpg
    , @Barbarossa
    @Thulean Friend

    I think you are absolutely correct.

    However, it's hard to take a comment seriously when it uses the term Latinx. It's such a grating, clunky, ideologically charged term, to address a non-existent problem. ;)
    , @mal
    @Thulean Friend


    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.
    It's funny but I think the pessimists are right on this one at least in the short term.

    The "swiss cheese" comment is silly because there's a lot of self sanctioning going on. Even if only a few Russian banks got banned, in reality, this means the whole banking system. Due to counter party risk all of Russian assets are deemed toxic.

    It doesn't mean the end of the world though. Ruble resumed devaluation that i expected which is needed to save Russian balance of payments. This is important because we are about to enter Great Depression 2.0 and demand for commodities will slump. Russia is profiting now, but it won't be forever. Devaluation is the key part of long term strategy and if it doesn't happen Russia is screwed.

    With attack on CBR reserves, eurodollar is done. In the upcoming depression, ex-US world will be unable to pay off USD denominated debt and will default. Meanwhile, US will be forced to print dozens of $trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90's for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don't see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.

    The end game though is well worth it as bilateral trade agreements will emerge from the ruins of the eurodollar system. The planet will taste freedom and sovereignty for the first time since 19th century. US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard
  218. @Ron Unz
    For those so interested, I just released my new article, discussing "Putin as Hitler"...

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

    Replies: @Dmitry

    By the way, seeing you post here, thanks for paying attention to our community and starting these threads for us. I appreciate you doing this and I’m sure many other people here also.

    •�Agree: sudden death, German_reader, Yahya
  219. @Thulean Friend
    Comparisons with Iran, Cuba or even North Korea(!) are wildly overstated. Russia will manage this crisis far better.

    https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1500615240505085952

    China, India, Africa and all the important players in Latinx America have unequivocally stated that they will not sanction Russia. The so-called "devastating SWIFT sanctions" have more holes than Swiss cheese. The biggest and most systemically important bank in Russia, Sberbank, has been spared because it is critical in facilitating oil and gas trade.

    This should not surprise us. Germany and Italy made these demands and are not backing off. The US is now trying to pursue an oil embargo alone on Russia, which is mostly just optics as America was never an important client. It's also an admission of defeat that it can't get Europe to sign on.

    Russia's export structure is ideally suited to the moment, with commodity prices going on a rampage. The contrast with the 2014 crisis couldn't have been more stark, when the bottom fell out and forced Russia to play defensive. In addition, the economy was less prepared for a radical shift. MIR didn't exist then. China's own technological sovereignty progress was far behind what it is now.

    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

    The biggest long-term challenge is to guarantee a smooth transition to Chinese alternatives once/when commodity prices calm down. Russia is too weak to go it alone and pride may prevent many Russians from accepting that. Current elevated commodity prices are giving Russia a giant umbrella to work under. Better prepare for the rain when the umbrella is gone.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Barbarossa, @mal

  220. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    https://youtu.be/Exe4bz_o1As

    Close fellow travelers of Karlin & Averko seen stomping out Russian protesters today throughout Russia. Over 4,300 according to this report. Instead of trying to lengthen the lifespans of people in Ukraine, these two take pleasure in seeing the deaths of women, children and the elderly.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Informal Discussion – 60 Minutes – Culture – Sports – Pakistan – Steven Seagal – Good Twitter Accounts

    This informative exchange is indicative of what happens when the ethically flawed pro-Kiev regime Western mass media slant is substantively answered –

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214463

    —————————–

    Yesterday’s CBS 60 Minutes feature on Ukraine conveniently omitted –

    At the UN General Assembly, the US and Ukraine were the only two delegations voting against a resolution denouncing Nazism. No mention of the Kiev regime carnage (killing in the thousands and displaced people in the hundred of thousands) in Donbass over the past 8 years and coddling to Neo-Nazis. BTW, “Slava Ukraini” is part of a term credited to Ukrainian Neo-Nazis.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8658329/chrystia-freeland-scarf-photo-ukraine/

    On the periphery of the conflict, the Biden administration has added fuel to the combustible situation.

    As stated in Antiwar.com and on WABC Talk Radio in New York, my views on the matter aren’t ethically lacking when compared to Western mass media at large.

    —————————–

    Re: https://www.rt.com/news/551327-soprano-fired-opera-putin/

    It’s not likely that Anna Netrebko’s Ukrainian replacement will be asked to formally denounce the Kiev regime for its carnage in Donbass and coddling to Neo-Nazis.

    A closely related version of the following was sent to The Met’s online contact form and its email address –

    The Met’s bigoted stance on the situation in Ukraine deserves a moral loathing. Did The Met ever nation shame others for when their respective nation launched a war killing and displacing many?

    FYI, the Kiev regime side is far from innocent. Over the past eight years, it has killed and displaced en masse, further away from central and western Europe. On the ground UN/OSCE inspectors have confirmed this.

    Bleep you all to hell if you aren’t going to recognize and apologize for your arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and bigoted stance.

    —————————–

    One radical turn (formally banning Russia, with a hypocritically applied “neutral” status) apparently leads to another –

    https://www.rt.com/sport/551367-ivan-kuliak-russian-gymnastics-world-cup/

    —————————–

    https://www.trtworld.com/asia/are-we-your-slaves-pakistani-premier-hits-out-at-west-over-russia-letter-55313

    —————————–

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/putin-pal-steven-seagal-speaks-out-on-ukraine-invasion-i-look-at-both-as-one-family/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_7084636

    —————————–

    Among the good twitter reads are those of Clint Ehrlich and Mark Sleboda.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937

    Is this fake news?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dacian Julien Soros
    , @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler's police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I'll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler's police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler's maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?

    Replies: @Mikhail
  221. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    I agree with every point you make in this post and goes further with the entire Novorossiya given local autonomy on the oblast level.

    But as AK understands it, Putin is going for wholesale annexation and the negation of Ukrainian national identity, which I reject and hopefully you won't approve of.

    Banderites can be a party like the far-right in France and Germany, and even a part of the ruling coalition, but not having a militia on the Hezbollah model. Leave the use of force to the (reduced) armed or security apparatus of Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians need to (re)learn the balancing act that allowed Finland to thrive in Cold War.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  222. @Barbarossa
    @silviosilver

    American moral grandstanding is insufferable. I really hate pretense, and I would really prefer that an Empire just say that it's an Empire rather than justify itself with increasingly idiotic appeals to it's virtue.

    As you point out with the example of Iraq, America should have been sanctioned more heavily than Russia is now if "international norms" meant anything. Russia and China are correct that the system is rigged against them, not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.

    Neither do I. In fact, I’m not even convinced they are relatively more virtuous. Though it’s sad to dwell on, if you’re seeking virtue, the arena of international relations is the last place you should look. All states were formed by aggression, and it’s only a matter of going back far enough in time to find it and cast self-justificatory aspersions over it. No one’s hands are entirely clean. But in terms of having made redress for past misdeeds, the west actually looks pretty good in comparison to everybody else.

    •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @silviosilver



    he west actually looks pretty good in comparison to everybody else

    The real tragedy is the thought of what could have been if the American hegemony had been handled very differently. The Pax Romana lasted 200 years, but we got nothing of the kind from the American Empire. Idiocy and mismanagement have ensured that America will have little more than 30 years in the sun, with much of that time spent on pyrrhic conquests that were ultimately counterproductive and destructive for all parties.

    The most offensive aspects of the American Empire are both their pompous moralizing and their absolute incompetence on the world stage. What a stupid combination.

    As a side point however, sometimes I wonder if redressing past misdeeds is in some ways a cover for perpetrating more in the present.
  223. @silviosilver
    @Yevardian


    but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap
    I don't see how Thucydides Trap logic applies to this case. That concept was formulated to describe a specific set of circumstances; it's not a catch-all term for any situation in which the aggressor felt they "had to" go to war.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    In case you’ve not seen it, powerful take.

    By attributing the war primarily to the growth of Athenian power and the fear it caused Sparta, Thucydides proved to be a stooge and conduit of Spartan talking points, denied its agency, and was probably on their payroll.

    •�LOL: silviosilver
    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @Blinky Bill

    Is that from Our Benevolent Overlord's "The Spartan Naval Empire"?
    I feel I would have remembered such a powerful take, but I did read it years ago, between many other papers.. though it was just background, as I was working on the revolution of Kleomenes III anyway.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
  224. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    International response, also relates to saying to everyone there would be no invasion, then invading, with lack of casus belli.

    They did a dozen small false flag attacks in Donbass and Crimea. They evacuated some "refugees" in a group of buses, which were children from orphanage. Prerecorded videos with metadata not matching the dates. They talked about "genocide" for a couple days. But there was lack of effort to create a coherent narrative or false flag.

    In the end, everyone saw it followed what Zhirinovsky had already leaked. It was like (to copy your name) Operation Barbarossa, with the 4am surprise attack, with no declaration of war.

    In 1999, with the Second Chechen War, they prepared with much more effort for the casus belli, operating false flag attacks with bombs of residential buildings in Moscow.

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view.

    Elaborate false flags with hundreds of casualties, can create more international acceptance of war, compared to some Mukden Incident or Gleiwitz incident.

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war, is what happened, is one of most difficult to present to the international community. Even with Pearl Harbor there was a declaration of war, although only given late. Russia is still not declared war with Ukraine. It's legally still peacetime. That's why it's important in Russia to call this a "special military operation" and illegal to call it war.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Barbarossa, @mal

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war,

    It’s just the Soviet myth, war was declared both in public and diplomatically:

    Thus Moscow not only broke but miserably betrayed the stipulations of our friendly agreement. All this was done while the rulers in the Kremlin, exactly as in the case of Finland and Rumania, up to the last moment pretended peace and friendship and drew up an ostensibly innocent démenti.

    Although until now I was forced by circumstances to keep silent again and again, the moment has now come when to continue as a mere observer would not only be a sin of omission but a crime against the German people-yes, even against the whole of Europe.

    Today something like 160 Russian divisions are standing at our frontiers. For weeks constant violations of this frontier have taken place, not only affecting us but from the far north down to Rumania.

    Russian airmen consider it sport nonchalantly to overlook these frontiers, presumably to prove to us that they already feel themselves masters of these territories.

    During the night of June 17 to June 18 Russian patrols again penetrated into the Reich’s territory and could only be driven back after prolonged firing. This has brought us to the hour when it is necessary for us to take steps against this plot devised by the Jewish Anglo-Saxon warmongers and equally the Jewish rulers of the Bolshevist center in Moscow.

    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/adolf-hitler-declaration-of-war-on-the-soviet-union-june-1941

    Diplomatically:

    June 21

    The Reich Foreign Minister to the German Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Schulenburg)

    The text of the German declaration of war.

    http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/nsr/nsr-09.html#23

    Memorandum of the Conversation Between the Reich Foreign Minister and Soviet Russian Ambassador Dekanosov in the Foreign Office at 4 a. m. on June 23 [1941]

    Ribbentrop announces that Germany has begun hostilities.

    http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/nsr/nsr-09.html#27

  225. @Blinky Bill
    @silviosilver

    In case you've not seen it, powerful take.

    By attributing the war primarily to the growth of Athenian power and the fear it caused Sparta, Thucydides proved to be a stooge and conduit of Spartan talking points, denied its agency, and was probably on their payroll.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Is that from Our Benevolent Overlord’s “The Spartan Naval Empire“?
    I feel I would have remembered such a powerful take, but I did read it years ago, between many other papers.. though it was just background, as I was working on the revolution of Kleomenes III anyway.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Yevardian

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRUnjHyMsdMFN5kW4uEhVy6TTrpkbzzfwIyog&usqp.jpg




    https://twitter.com/CaldronPool/status/1499487887863209987?s=20&t=xRdGavEV4f2t4NB4DEgVSQ
  226. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Informal Discussion - 60 Minutes - Culture - Sports - Pakistan - Steven Seagal - Good Twitter Accounts

    This informative exchange is indicative of what happens when the ethically flawed pro-Kiev regime Western mass media slant is substantively answered -

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214463

    -----------------------------

    Yesterday's CBS 60 Minutes feature on Ukraine conveniently omitted -

    At the UN General Assembly, the US and Ukraine were the only two delegations voting against a resolution denouncing Nazism. No mention of the Kiev regime carnage (killing in the thousands and displaced people in the hundred of thousands) in Donbass over the past 8 years and coddling to Neo-Nazis. BTW, "Slava Ukraini" is part of a term credited to Ukrainian Neo-Nazis.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8658329/chrystia-freeland-scarf-photo-ukraine/

    On the periphery of the conflict, the Biden administration has added fuel to the combustible situation.

    As stated in Antiwar.com and on WABC Talk Radio in New York, my views on the matter aren't ethically lacking when compared to Western mass media at large.

    -----------------------------

    Re: https://www.rt.com/news/551327-soprano-fired-opera-putin/

    It's not likely that Anna Netrebko's Ukrainian replacement will be asked to formally denounce the Kiev regime for its carnage in Donbass and coddling to Neo-Nazis.

    A closely related version of the following was sent to The Met's online contact form and its email address -

    The Met's bigoted stance on the situation in Ukraine deserves a moral loathing. Did The Met ever nation shame others for when their respective nation launched a war killing and displacing many?

    FYI, the Kiev regime side is far from innocent. Over the past eight years, it has killed and displaced en masse, further away from central and western Europe. On the ground UN/OSCE inspectors have confirmed this.

    Bleep you all to hell if you aren't going to recognize and apologize for your arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and bigoted stance.

    -----------------------------

    One radical turn (formally banning Russia, with a hypocritically applied "neutral" status) apparently leads to another -

    https://www.rt.com/sport/551367-ivan-kuliak-russian-gymnastics-world-cup/

    -----------------------------

    https://www.trtworld.com/asia/are-we-your-slaves-pakistani-premier-hits-out-at-west-over-russia-letter-55313

    -----------------------------

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/putin-pal-steven-seagal-speaks-out-on-ukraine-invasion-i-look-at-both-as-one-family/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_7084636

    -----------------------------

    Among the good twitter reads are those of Clint Ehrlich and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mr. Hack

    Is this fake news?

    •�Replies: @LondonBob
    @Yellowface Anon

    As fake as most of the OSINT crap on twitter.

    Amazed to see people still being apologists for Nuland, Zelensky, Kolomoisky etc.
    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Yellowface Anon

    Of course it's real. I don't know a lot of Russian, but Sushko seems a Slavic name. Also, the last tweet of the Russian leaker was "Russian ship, go to hell".
  227. @Yevardian
    @Blinky Bill

    Is that from Our Benevolent Overlord's "The Spartan Naval Empire"?
    I feel I would have remembered such a powerful take, but I did read it years ago, between many other papers.. though it was just background, as I was working on the revolution of Kleomenes III anyway.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  228. @Yevardian
    @Svidomyatheart


    They’ve already essentially abandoned us…only useful as to how much damage can be inflicted to Russia
    Well, what the hell did you expect? You country was incited to endlessly provoke and get eventually eaten by Russia, ideally in the most bloody manner possible, for maximum effect across the Western world more broadly, as a sort of sacrificial offering. Perhaps that's all the Ukrainian project ever was intended to be for global planners.


    During the previous post-Soviet conflict, 2020's Artaskh War (one with real possibility of genocide) as US interests weren't involved you barely heard a blip, nothing, nada, anywhere in media of a single Western country.
    Of course the global stakes are far higher with this Ukrainian War, but do you really think US planners or Western governments in general give a shit about Ukrainians? Probably a calculation was made long ago that Ukraine was more more useful as an open bleeding (now, literally) sore than as a functional country, the only goal from this point from the 'Western' point of view is to bleed the population out as long as possible, more photo-ops of dead children and destroyed playgrounds from Russian invaders, keeping horrified Europeans under US thumb and further crusade of modern agendas like gender-assignment surgery for young children, replacement of the native European populations and so on it goes.

    But again, I don't see how Putin thought mounting a full-scale invasion of the whole Ukraine was a good idea, the optics alone are disastrous, let alone the material and human costs of war between two nations that are practically the same.
    I don't to sound like a mirror defeatist of German_Reader, but it feels like Russia may have fallen hard into the Thucydides Trap, like so many other grim examples in history.

    Replies: @German_reader, @sher singh, @silviosilver, @Svidomyatheart

    I know US doesnt care they dont even care that much about their own unless its a minority or if you’re Jewish.

    The original idea wasnt even NATO, just EU. To get to levels of Croatia or something.

    And soon its going to take another 2 generations to rebuild.

    I shouldnt have to jump through endless hoops just to be able to afford decent food. Hell, if even Somalis from across the contient can cash in on the endless gibs(no, thats not what we were asking for but the ability to simply work in EU)

    •�Thanks: Blinky Bill
  229. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937

    Is this fake news?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dacian Julien Soros

    As fake as most of the OSINT crap on twitter.

    Amazed to see people still being apologists for Nuland, Zelensky, Kolomoisky etc.

  230. Was very pleased to read that RF field diversionist Igor Strelkov nearly threw up in the towel completely and announced today that without strenghtening the current RF forces several times in capacity there will be no any further major sucesses for the continuing offensive:

    Общий вывод:
    Как и отмечалось в предыдущих сводках – острая нехватка фронтовых частей и подразделений не позволила развить первоначальные оперативные успехи и привела сначала с “пробуксовке” дальнейшего продвижения, а теперь – к его фактическому затуханию. Моя вчерашняя оценка “о надутом пузыре” на левом фланге Южного фронта – оправдалась быстрее, чем я мог предположить и самым неприятным образом.

    По всей видимости – сегодня, во время совершенно безсмысленных и очевидно столь-же безрезультатных переговоров – ВС РФ и ЛДНР будут производить необходимые перегруппировки.
    Однако ,противник непременно воспользуется паузой и “режимом тишины” для таких–же действий со своей стороны. Впрочем, бои на основных участках ,уверен, будут продолжаться без каких-либо “поправок на переговоры”.

    В случае, если военно-политическое руководство РФ и далее не сделает очевидных выводов в отношении необходимости кратного усиления нашей группировки, воюющей на украине – полагаю насущную задачу полного разгрома ВСУ и освобождения Новороссии и Малороссии от нацистов – невыполнимой (имеющимися наличными силами).

    https://vk.com/wall347260249_644205

    •�Thanks: Thulean Friend
  231. A123 says: •�Website

    What do Israel, Bulgaria, and Poland have in common?

    None of them will provide advanced weapons systems, guaranteed to make the situation in Ukraine worse.
    ___

    The illegitimate SJW regime occupying the White House keeps talking about a non-existent fighter transfer to Ukraine. (1)

    U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told media that Poland was sending fighter planes to Ukraine, and the U.S. was in negotiations with Poland to replace them. The same assertion was made by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.

    However, the official Twitter account of the chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland calls those reports “fake news”:

    Poland won’t send its fighter jets to #Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports. We significantly help in many other areas.

    There is still time for Zelensky to realize that the Fake President is incapable of delivering meaningful military support. The only hope is a negotiated deal between Ukraine & Russia.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/06/government-of-poland-outlines-u-s-state-dept-secretary-anthony-blinken-as-a-liar/


    •�Thanks: Barbarossa
  232. Oil 139
    Gas 2826
    Gold 1988

    Now the super-cycle of raw material prices is unavoidable. Sleepy Joe seppuku to hit Russia start to bite.
    We can sum raw material exporters, like South America countries, to the list of winners headed by China.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Aedib

    Is anybody doing those numbers adjusting to inflation? Oil was nearly 150 in 2008, which very roughly would be probably around 200-220 in todays dollars.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Barbarossa
    , @A123
    @Aedib

    It is important to look at the delivery date (1)

    WTI Crude

    $121.32 -- APR 2022
    $107.93 -- JUL 2022
    $ �99.28 -- OCT 2022
    The "spot" price of oil drives the pump price of gasoline. So, there is a link to short term inflation of physical products (e.g. grocery stores).

    The price 6 months out is over $20/bbl lower. This suggests that additional supply will be available. Russia oil will return to the market and/or domestic drillers will expand capacity.

    America's issues with hydrocarbon pricing have very little to do with Russia/Ukraine events. The illegitimate Biden regime undercut domestic production. Congress is gearing up to undo this obvious policy blunder: (2)

    The American Energy Independence Act of 2022 will:

    • Instruct federal agencies to identify and rescind existing regulations that have the effect of reducing American energy independence, bars new rules that reduce energy security or raise energy prices, and directs agencies to work to achieve energy independence by 2024.

    • Ease the regulatory burden on energy companies engaged in fracking.

    • Restore the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline after its cancellation by the Biden Administration and eases the process for constructing new pipelines.

    • Defund the United States’ contributions to any provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement.

    • Rescind the Biden Administration’s moratorium on oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

    • Lower the “social cost of carbon” to $0 per ton to focus government standards on boosting domestic energy production, rather than climate change.
    It looks like MAGA got this through the Senate on a 48-47 vote. However, its still has to go to the House, where the anti-American, anti-Worker SJW/DNC will choke on it.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

    (2) https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-leads-bill-restoring-american-energy-independence-ending-reliance-foreign-nations

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Boethiuss
  233. @Aedib


    Oil 139
    Gas 2826
    Gold 1988

    Now the super-cycle of raw material prices is unavoidable. Sleepy Joe seppuku to hit Russia start to bite.
    We can sum raw material exporters, like South America countries, to the list of winners headed by China.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    Is anybody doing those numbers adjusting to inflation? Oil was nearly 150 in 2008, which very roughly would be probably around 200-220 in todays dollars.

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @sudden death

    I did not. But we are starting a similar super-cycle to the one of 2008. I don’t know if it will be bigger or smaller, but surely it will be big.
    , @Barbarossa
    @sudden death

    Your point is a good one, but I would say that we are not nearly done yet. It's just starting as far as I can tell.

    Many other economic factors are much more vulnerable than in 2008 which will make the pain much further reaching, in my opinion.

    I know that in the US inflation is a huge factor and is definitely much higher than official numbers indicate. Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder. Add on top of that the burst of the housing bubble as interest rates creep up and material prices scare many out of the building markets. So many Americans are on the margins of getting by and so leveraged to the hilt, that $6 a gallon gas coupled with other utility and food price increases will create a catastrophe for many.

    Replies: @silviosilver
  234. @sudden death
    @Aedib

    Is anybody doing those numbers adjusting to inflation? Oil was nearly 150 in 2008, which very roughly would be probably around 200-220 in todays dollars.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Barbarossa

    I did not. But we are starting a similar super-cycle to the one of 2008. I don’t know if it will be bigger or smaller, but surely it will be big.

  235. @sudden death
    @Aedib

    Is anybody doing those numbers adjusting to inflation? Oil was nearly 150 in 2008, which very roughly would be probably around 200-220 in todays dollars.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Barbarossa

    Your point is a good one, but I would say that we are not nearly done yet. It’s just starting as far as I can tell.

    Many other economic factors are much more vulnerable than in 2008 which will make the pain much further reaching, in my opinion.

    I know that in the US inflation is a huge factor and is definitely much higher than official numbers indicate. Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder. Add on top of that the burst of the housing bubble as interest rates creep up and material prices scare many out of the building markets. So many Americans are on the margins of getting by and so leveraged to the hilt, that \$6 a gallon gas coupled with other utility and food price increases will create a catastrophe for many.

    •�Agree: Aedib
    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @Barbarossa


    Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder.
    Small correction, those are not separate phenomena. Surging materials prices are represented in the inflation figure.

    Also, I don't see how you could know inflation is "definitely much higher" unless you replicated the work of the authorities, surveying countless prices of goods around the country. Obviously no one man is in a position to do that.

    At most you can you say you strongly suspect that inflation is higher, or that your "personal inflation" - the sorts of things you, personally, are apt to purchase - is definitely higher.

    And to be sure, I'm not claiming that inflation is definitely not higher than stated. I have no way of knowing that either. Governments obviously have an incentive to downplay inflation, but working on the assumption that it's downplayed in a consistent way, the official number can still be a useful measure.

    Replies: @Barbarossa
  236. Mykolaiv under Russian occupation for a few days now. Good luck in Kyiv to the “Liberators”!

  237. A123 says: •�Website
    @Aedib


    Oil 139
    Gas 2826
    Gold 1988

    Now the super-cycle of raw material prices is unavoidable. Sleepy Joe seppuku to hit Russia start to bite.
    We can sum raw material exporters, like South America countries, to the list of winners headed by China.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    It is important to look at the delivery date (1)

    WTI Crude

    \$121.32 — APR 2022
    \$107.93 — JUL 2022
    \$ �99.28 — OCT 2022

    The “spot” price of oil drives the pump price of gasoline. So, there is a link to short term inflation of physical products (e.g. grocery stores).

    The price 6 months out is over \$20/bbl lower. This suggests that additional supply will be available. Russia oil will return to the market and/or domestic drillers will expand capacity.

    America’s issues with hydrocarbon pricing have very little to do with Russia/Ukraine events. The illegitimate Biden regime undercut domestic production. Congress is gearing up to undo this obvious policy blunder: (2)

    The American Energy Independence Act of 2022 will:

    • Instruct federal agencies to identify and rescind existing regulations that have the effect of reducing American energy independence, bars new rules that reduce energy security or raise energy prices, and directs agencies to work to achieve energy independence by 2024.

    • Ease the regulatory burden on energy companies engaged in fracking.

    • Restore the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline after its cancellation by the Biden Administration and eases the process for constructing new pipelines.

    • Defund the United States’ contributions to any provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement.

    • Rescind the Biden Administration’s moratorium on oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

    • Lower the “social cost of carbon” to \$0 per ton to focus government standards on boosting domestic energy production, rather than climate change.

    It looks like MAGA got this through the Senate on a 48-47 vote. However, its still has to go to the House, where the anti-American, anti-Worker SJW/DNC will choke on it.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

    (2) https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-leads-bill-restoring-american-energy-independence-ending-reliance-foreign-nations

    •�Agree: Aedib
    •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I hope that you are correct and my economic doomerism is misplaced.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

    That graph seems to indicate that US production coming on-line this year will be fairly consistent to what has been produced over the last couple years, and mostly keeps up with wells being taken out of production.

    As for what can be brought online in the future, it's an open question, but doesn't seem likely to affect short term issues going further into 2022.
    , @Boethiuss
    @A123


    The illegitimate Biden regime undercut......
    Typical unz comment bullshit. You do realize, of course, that you have written this or something similar in every comment you have written but never once to my recollection every attempted to justify it.

    Cut the shit already. Too many people here are trying too hard to maximize the rhetorical force of their words, when the reality is that people who circulate known bullshit lose credibility everywhere, ie, not just the item of bullshit but everything else besides.

    Replies: @A123
  238. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    International response, also relates to saying to everyone there would be no invasion, then invading, with lack of casus belli.

    They did a dozen small false flag attacks in Donbass and Crimea. They evacuated some "refugees" in a group of buses, which were children from orphanage. Prerecorded videos with metadata not matching the dates. They talked about "genocide" for a couple days. But there was lack of effort to create a coherent narrative or false flag.

    In the end, everyone saw it followed what Zhirinovsky had already leaked. It was like (to copy your name) Operation Barbarossa, with the 4am surprise attack, with no declaration of war.

    In 1999, with the Second Chechen War, they prepared with much more effort for the casus belli, operating false flag attacks with bombs of residential buildings in Moscow.

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view.

    Elaborate false flags with hundreds of casualties, can create more international acceptance of war, compared to some Mukden Incident or Gleiwitz incident.

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war, is what happened, is one of most difficult to present to the international community. Even with Pearl Harbor there was a declaration of war, although only given late. Russia is still not declared war with Ukraine. It's legally still peacetime. That's why it's important in Russia to call this a "special military operation" and illegal to call it war.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Barbarossa, @mal

    My comment was purely that Russia has a better case than the US did in Iraq. Not that it has an empirically bullet proof case, just a more plausible one.

    This highlights the shambolic nature of the “rules based international system”. Russia and China have correctly read that American might makes right, and are acting accordingly. This is not to necessarily defend them, since , as always the blood and tears of the common man feeds the ambitions of politicians.

    I honestly don’t feel that either Russia or the West is blameless in Ukraine. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the Ukrainian people are the ones who will ultimately pay for the ambitions of all sides. It’s a tragedy, and I feel deeply for the Ukrainian people who were put into an untenable situation by their own government, the West, and Russia.

    •�Agree: Thulean Friend, iffen
    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Barbarossa

    Don’t forget India. Oddly both Pakistan and India are currying favour with Russia.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    The point is that USA in 2003, created a casus belli, with evidence and presentation in the United Nations, that Iraq is going to destroy neighbors with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    They create a casus belli, try to attain international consensus, say they will invade, and then invade.

    Later, this casus belli doesn't seem very realistic, although it is possible George W. Bush partially believes his own employees' fake propaganda in 2003.

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    In 2022, Russia says it will not invade, promises foreign politicians it will not invade, then with a few days, they create some small false flags, and invade at night in a surprise (without declaration of war).

    The casus belli is not achieved (unlike in 1999 or 2003), and Putin says he will denazification of Ukraine, which seems as objective for the international community, as after beginning of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, speech to say they will decommunize the USSR, that presents a threat of an anti-Germany.

    Now, they try to talk about a nuclear/biological threat from Ukraine, but it is all very minimum effort. It's like they want to hint on the theme of an asset-stripped version of the 2003 casus belli.

    -

    In terms of international reaction, obviously China believes it is their self-interest to watch. Any result of this war, means Russia becomes more dependent on China, which is improvement of China's leverage in balance of power relative to Russia.

    But likely one of the important lessons, they will be viewing, is the importance of casus belli, before invasion of Taiwan. They might need to create narrative that would justify an invasion of Taiwan, beyond saying it is their self-interest.

    Although they can at least try to build from the principle of "territorial integrity", which was sufficient for Azerbaijan to go to war with Armenia, in 2020. Aliev's "success" (if you can use this word in context of the deaths of thousands of young men) in 2020, was not only in military, but also in international relations. Aliev in 2020 has maneuvered, not just effectively in the battle (with use of modern technology), but also in diplomacy and international law.

    Replies: @utu, @German_reader, @Barbarossa
  239. @Thulean Friend
    Comparisons with Iran, Cuba or even North Korea(!) are wildly overstated. Russia will manage this crisis far better.

    https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1500615240505085952

    China, India, Africa and all the important players in Latinx America have unequivocally stated that they will not sanction Russia. The so-called "devastating SWIFT sanctions" have more holes than Swiss cheese. The biggest and most systemically important bank in Russia, Sberbank, has been spared because it is critical in facilitating oil and gas trade.

    This should not surprise us. Germany and Italy made these demands and are not backing off. The US is now trying to pursue an oil embargo alone on Russia, which is mostly just optics as America was never an important client. It's also an admission of defeat that it can't get Europe to sign on.

    Russia's export structure is ideally suited to the moment, with commodity prices going on a rampage. The contrast with the 2014 crisis couldn't have been more stark, when the bottom fell out and forced Russia to play defensive. In addition, the economy was less prepared for a radical shift. MIR didn't exist then. China's own technological sovereignty progress was far behind what it is now.

    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

    The biggest long-term challenge is to guarantee a smooth transition to Chinese alternatives once/when commodity prices calm down. Russia is too weak to go it alone and pride may prevent many Russians from accepting that. Current elevated commodity prices are giving Russia a giant umbrella to work under. Better prepare for the rain when the umbrella is gone.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Barbarossa, @mal

    I think you are absolutely correct.

    However, it’s hard to take a comment seriously when it uses the term Latinx. It’s such a grating, clunky, ideologically charged term, to address a non-existent problem. 😉

    •�Agree: RadicalCenter
  240. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Informal Discussion - 60 Minutes - Culture - Sports - Pakistan - Steven Seagal - Good Twitter Accounts

    This informative exchange is indicative of what happens when the ethically flawed pro-Kiev regime Western mass media slant is substantively answered -

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214463

    -----------------------------

    Yesterday's CBS 60 Minutes feature on Ukraine conveniently omitted -

    At the UN General Assembly, the US and Ukraine were the only two delegations voting against a resolution denouncing Nazism. No mention of the Kiev regime carnage (killing in the thousands and displaced people in the hundred of thousands) in Donbass over the past 8 years and coddling to Neo-Nazis. BTW, "Slava Ukraini" is part of a term credited to Ukrainian Neo-Nazis.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8658329/chrystia-freeland-scarf-photo-ukraine/

    On the periphery of the conflict, the Biden administration has added fuel to the combustible situation.

    As stated in Antiwar.com and on WABC Talk Radio in New York, my views on the matter aren't ethically lacking when compared to Western mass media at large.

    -----------------------------

    Re: https://www.rt.com/news/551327-soprano-fired-opera-putin/

    It's not likely that Anna Netrebko's Ukrainian replacement will be asked to formally denounce the Kiev regime for its carnage in Donbass and coddling to Neo-Nazis.

    A closely related version of the following was sent to The Met's online contact form and its email address -

    The Met's bigoted stance on the situation in Ukraine deserves a moral loathing. Did The Met ever nation shame others for when their respective nation launched a war killing and displacing many?

    FYI, the Kiev regime side is far from innocent. Over the past eight years, it has killed and displaced en masse, further away from central and western Europe. On the ground UN/OSCE inspectors have confirmed this.

    Bleep you all to hell if you aren't going to recognize and apologize for your arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and bigoted stance.

    -----------------------------

    One radical turn (formally banning Russia, with a hypocritically applied "neutral" status) apparently leads to another -

    https://www.rt.com/sport/551367-ivan-kuliak-russian-gymnastics-world-cup/

    -----------------------------

    https://www.trtworld.com/asia/are-we-your-slaves-pakistani-premier-hits-out-at-west-over-russia-letter-55313

    -----------------------------

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/putin-pal-steven-seagal-speaks-out-on-ukraine-invasion-i-look-at-both-as-one-family/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_7084636

    -----------------------------

    Among the good twitter reads are those of Clint Ehrlich and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mr. Hack

    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler’s police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I’ll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler’s police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler’s maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler’s police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I’ll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler’s police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler’s maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?
    Pure projection on your part. Talk about BS.

    Do you not condemn the Kiev regime's carnage against the Donbass rebel inhabitants, along with its coddling of Neo-Nazis - points noted in detail at this thread?

    "Manhandles" as how the Kiev regime treats some individuals and orgs with views different from their slant.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  241. Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:

    1. Recognises Crimea as Russia.

    2. Allows independence for the twin republics.

    3. Ukraine agrees not to join any blocs.

    I said that he should have offered this before the invasion, and wrote here that he should have offered it 48 hours in, but Putin the Bungler has only just gotten round to reality, but quite possibly too late. Why would the Ukrainians cede sovereignty now, when they know they can win?

    And please no Russian trolls pipe up to say that they should do so to save lives, as if the the threat of suffering casualties should make all proud people immediately surrender to imperial aggression.

    Anyway, I think that Ukraine should agree, but they should get in return:

    1. A written security guarantee that no Russian forces will enter Ukraine again.

    2. That the definition of a “bloc” does not include the EU.

    3. That the twin Republics gain independence on their pre-Russian aggression borders.

    Obviously an apology and compensation should also be sought.

    Or Ukraine could just keep Russia involved in an unwinnable war, where the Russian regime loses credibility by the day and the Russian military moves in the direction of zero combat effectiveness just as fast?

    After all, the Ukrainian military is much stronger now than when the war began, while the Russian military is much weaker and there is zero chance of Russia conducting a successful occupation of Ukraine.

    Anatoly, thoughts?

    Not that I know why I ask. Anything but “Putin is a glorious warlord who is winning this not a war” might well get you arrested.

    Famous Russian leaders:

    Peter the Great
    Catherine the Great
    Putin the Bungler

    •�Thanks: Mr. Hack
    •�LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    •�Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Shock and disbelief.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Mikhail
    @Triteleia Laxa

    For the record a peace proposal along that line was made earlier at this thread by yours truly as well as beforehand elsewhere.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214656

    Over the past 24 hours, what I proposed relative to this US political establishment handshakeworthy Putin/Russia bashing prose that will get you on CNN, PBS and NPR:

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/03/how-to-get-to-a-place-of-peace-for-ukraine/

    – Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    – Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    – Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn’t sacrifice the security of another country.

    – In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they’ve utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Agree or disagree with Putin’s call, he gave seven years to see the Minsk Protocol implemented. Nothing! His call for a new security arrangement dissed since 2007.
    , @Boethiuss
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:.....
    I'd be inclined to support something like this, my guess is the United States would as well. The problem is that it really doesn't solve Russia's biggest problem, which is the sanctions, and the underlying reality behind them, which is that Russia has lost 10 (20, 50?) years worth of economic grown and standard of living improvements in just a week or so.

    Some of the sanctions against Russia could be withdrawn, maybe, but a lot of them won't be. Specifically, a lot of the really nasty sanctions against Russia aren't state sanctions at all anyway. Eg, Rolls Royce says they won't repair or sell spare parts for their aircraft engines. Whoops, there goes half of Russia's commercial airplanes our of service. Mastercard won't process payments for merchants in Russia. There goes Russia's tourism industry. Etc etc.

    It's a delicate thing to talk about regime change in Russia because potentially, at least, it's a very inflammatory subject. But I think we will be talking about it soon enough because I don't think Russia will be anything other than a pariah state while Putin is still in charge. I don't know if Putin has figured this out or not, or even if he cares, but at least for me, I don't see any way for Putin to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

    Replies: @sudden death, @utu
    , @iffen
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Do you also write A123?
  242. Some people are saying that the economic effects of this thing will break the EU.

    But my thought is that Germany will adjust itself to inflation, partly due to the mass influx of foreigners.

    •�Replies: @Wokechoke
    @songbird

    The refugees from the Huns broke Rome. Just saying.
  243. John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Probably the people coming off the silliest in this thing are the”rationalists”.

    Ron Unz insisted that Putin would absolutely never invade, because Unz absolutely correctly perceived that it made zero rational and practical sense for him to do so. The silly NATO stuff was obviously not sufficient pretext from a national interest perspective, so Ron knew Putin would not invade.

    After all, according to Ron Russia and China are “rational” – because technocratic, totalitarian – whereas only the US is “irrational” and ideological (democratic, chaotic, etc).

    Now, of course, Ron is insisting that Putin had absolutely no choice but to invade because of NATO in Ukraine etc etc etc. It was merely the totally rational thing to do, don’t you see.

    And so the rationalist hamster spins it’s wheel to maintain the tottering intellectual facade that “reason” rules on human affairs.

    And yet, had Ron merely consulted his own irrational “thumotic” tendencies – his “thumotic” hatred of Jews – he would have understood a man like Putin well.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and “thumotic” reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class – Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    The old, classical, thumotic human motives for war – still with us after the liberals assured us we are in a new age of rationality, represented by technocratic efficiency etc. Yet utterly incapable of being comprehended by the rationalists, as usual.

    Karlin, having moved out of the West and back to Mother Russia, had reconnected to his thumotic side and rediscovered emotions and sides of his personality that the West does not recognize or allow to emerge.

    That is why Karlins persona is so much more “strange” and “ugly” and “aggressive” this time around – it is the final unravelling of the residues of a liberal persona and a return to an archaic, thumotic mode that seems so shocking to our late liberal sensibilities.

    (well, not mine, I viscerally understand this kind of thing very well, although it is the work of spirituality to overcome it).

    Worth noting that Karlins transition is not complete, as indicated in his Hitler-like “conditional” support for Mother Russia that hinges on its success – not the true thumotic devotion one might find in ancient Rome, Greece, Israel, etc, and that alone truly leads to “greatness” (whether greatness is desirable is another question).

    As partial children of modernity, figures like Hitler or Karlin cannot truly return to the thumotic archaic mode that has been the engine of greatness in history – worship of soulless “efficiency” still clings to them – and they remain doomed to failure.

    Likewise, China’s desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it’s well supplied modern weaponry and full American support – but thumotic considerations are not rational.

    For sure, when that times comes the silly rationalists will insist that China cannot possible start a war because it makes no rational sense, and when it happens, they will insist it was the only truly rational thing to do – so remaining silly to the end and never learning anything, trapped in their narrow world view.

    •�Agree: sudden death, Coconuts
    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Ukraine is a disorganized, asset-stripped, third world country, with impossible to defend geography and no protection from the international community. Ukraine is impossible to defend flat land, with only some mud (in spring) and (in summer) deciduous forest to protect them, as well as the cities (invitation to urban war), and nationalist population. It appears like an unlocked house, otherwise.

    To compare with China's invasion of Taiwan, which is a very locked house?

    China still has some discipline of communism and will have a more organized and less asset-stripped military capacity than Russia. But Taiwan is an island, with a more advanced development per capita than China and years of preparation for defense.

    An attempt for an amphibious invasion of a fortified island, could likely become one of the most famous military disasters of the 21st century, where every soldier has to be transported by vulnerable ships, and then climb over fortified beaches.

    It's like someone has designed a perfect "Panda trap", which China needs to avoid falling to.

    Of course, China should need to deconstruct the "Panda trap", instead of standing their foot inside it (e.g. trying amphibious invasions of a fortified island). This is, they would better to construction some kind of internal coup inside Taiwan.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke
    , @silviosilver
    @AaronB


    Likewise, China’s desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.
    I actually agree with most of what you said in this post (a true rarity!), but this statement is incorrect.

    Even if it ultimately is "thumotic," there is nonetheless a rational basis for it. The rational basis for it is completely out of proportion to the inflated rhetoric that surrounds the issue - "it is unbearable that a great nation like ours be hemmed in just off our own coast!" - but China's strategic position would indeed be somewhat enhanced by the absorption of Taiwan.

    Unless one thinks in terms of longer term security interests, this strategic enhancement can be very obscure. Like, so China takes Taiwan, big deal, how is that really going to change anything? In the short term, it wouldn't. The typical nationalistic Chinaman might feel like he is flexing his "greatness," but certainly nothing in his own life would change even if China took ten Taiwans. But in the longer term, holding Taiwan would be strategically advantageous in a showdown in east Asia.

    That's the damned thing about international relations. Virtually no country feels permanently content to expand its "greatness" solely within its own borders. The temptation to encroach upon territory held by others is everpresent, awaiting only the opportunity to pursue it. The liberal order is the closest humans have ever come to overcoming this tendency, although that carries deficiencies of its own - namely, the temptation to remake the world in the liberal image.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @Justvisiting
    @AaronB


    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it’s well supplied modern weaponry and full American support
    I have read Sun Tzu many times, and I am convinced China will attack Taiwan soon.

    If you ignore Western propaganda, what you get is that China believes it has the technology to successfully destroy US Navy ships in the region, which makes the US irrelevant. That advantage is not permanent, it is temporary--so that is a "now or never" scenario.

    They either attack when the enemy is weak, or perhaps give up attacking Taiwan for decades or longer.
    , @Coconuts
    @AaronB


    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.
    Agree that that is another interesting article by John Gray, I think he is the first 'post-liberal' writer I came across.

    I wonder if it is true that Ivan Ilyin is a major influence on Putin? From what I have briefly managed to read about Ilyin he sounds a bit like a Russian equivalent of Maurras, but maybe less of a journalist and with more philosophical depth in his writing. If Putin is really inspired by him he would probably be a contender for being the most based European leader since Franco and Dr. Salazar, and one of the most serious (given his position) post-liberals.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and “thumotic” reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class – Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.
    In France Maurras and the 'Integral Nationalists' used to be known as the realists or exponents of a reasonable 'politics of nature', based on the old Aristotelian tradition, while the liberals could correctly be called rationalists given their underlying philosophy, which Maurrasians criticised as being like trying to construct a utopian society balanced at the apex of a pyramid of disembodied, disinterested good wills.

    That in turn was supposed to be what gave rise to the periodic 'crises of the demo-liberal fiction', as human nature and the real workings of political power repeatedly reasserted themselves through the facade of abstraction.

    If Ilyin is a writer with a similar perspective it seems understandable how he could be seen as interesting and relevant in Russia, after the fall of Socialism and the failed introduction of Liberalism in the 90s.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  244. @Triteleia Laxa
    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:

    1. Recognises Crimea as Russia.

    2. Allows independence for the twin republics.

    3. Ukraine agrees not to join any blocs.

    I said that he should have offered this before the invasion, and wrote here that he should have offered it 48 hours in, but Putin the Bungler has only just gotten round to reality, but quite possibly too late. Why would the Ukrainians cede sovereignty now, when they know they can win?

    And please no Russian trolls pipe up to say that they should do so to save lives, as if the the threat of suffering casualties should make all proud people immediately surrender to imperial aggression.

    Anyway, I think that Ukraine should agree, but they should get in return:

    1. A written security guarantee that no Russian forces will enter Ukraine again.

    2. That the definition of a "bloc" does not include the EU.

    3. That the twin Republics gain independence on their pre-Russian aggression borders.

    Obviously an apology and compensation should also be sought.

    Or Ukraine could just keep Russia involved in an unwinnable war, where the Russian regime loses credibility by the day and the Russian military moves in the direction of zero combat effectiveness just as fast?

    After all, the Ukrainian military is much stronger now than when the war began, while the Russian military is much weaker and there is zero chance of Russia conducting a successful occupation of Ukraine.

    Anatoly, thoughts?

    Not that I know why I ask. Anything but "Putin is a glorious warlord who is winning this not a war" might well get you arrested.

    Famous Russian leaders:

    Peter the Great
    Catherine the Great
    Putin the Bungler

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mikhail, @Boethiuss, @iffen

    Shock and disbelief.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1500839485642194944?s=20&t=vl0-aRKeGnfRGKOKGMHtbw
  245. https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500826950373462021

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine’s entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    What we need is realpolitik – which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    •�Agree: LondonBob
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/Angelo4justice3/status/1500791290019172354?s=20&t=2Uoz7CX6G4UM5j5iaR_i0A

    Replies: @Aedib
    , @Wielgus
    @Thulean Friend

    Sounds like that is it for that particular aspiration, given how much weight Germany has in the EU.
    , @A123
    @Thulean Friend


    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine’s entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.
    The German Traffic Light coalition includes the Green Party. There is little to no chance that geopolitically insane Greens will allow NS2 to start. Expect wide gaps between what Scholz says versus actual coalition approved policy.

    What we need is realpolitik – which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.
    MAGA is the U.S. version of realpolitik. WEF Elites located in Davos undermined U.S. democracy and installed a mentally ill coup leader to gain European "liberal authoritarianism".

    At some point, Europeans will have to stop blaming the fake government that they foisted on Americans. The problem with Europe is Europe. The Fascist Stormtroopers of Antifa existed in Europe many years before the WEF exported them to the U.S.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Aedib
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    Manoids take the L.


    https://twitter.com/AntonJaegermm/status/1500832223402078208?s=20&t=tPbCWQqd9wVuMFq6JD7HSg
  246. @A123
    @Aedib

    It is important to look at the delivery date (1)

    WTI Crude

    $121.32 -- APR 2022
    $107.93 -- JUL 2022
    $ �99.28 -- OCT 2022
    The "spot" price of oil drives the pump price of gasoline. So, there is a link to short term inflation of physical products (e.g. grocery stores).

    The price 6 months out is over $20/bbl lower. This suggests that additional supply will be available. Russia oil will return to the market and/or domestic drillers will expand capacity.

    America's issues with hydrocarbon pricing have very little to do with Russia/Ukraine events. The illegitimate Biden regime undercut domestic production. Congress is gearing up to undo this obvious policy blunder: (2)

    The American Energy Independence Act of 2022 will:

    • Instruct federal agencies to identify and rescind existing regulations that have the effect of reducing American energy independence, bars new rules that reduce energy security or raise energy prices, and directs agencies to work to achieve energy independence by 2024.

    • Ease the regulatory burden on energy companies engaged in fracking.

    • Restore the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline after its cancellation by the Biden Administration and eases the process for constructing new pipelines.

    • Defund the United States’ contributions to any provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement.

    • Rescind the Biden Administration’s moratorium on oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

    • Lower the “social cost of carbon” to $0 per ton to focus government standards on boosting domestic energy production, rather than climate change.
    It looks like MAGA got this through the Senate on a 48-47 vote. However, its still has to go to the House, where the anti-American, anti-Worker SJW/DNC will choke on it.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

    (2) https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-leads-bill-restoring-american-energy-independence-ending-reliance-foreign-nations

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Boethiuss

    I hope that you are correct and my economic doomerism is misplaced.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

    That graph seems to indicate that US production coming on-line this year will be fairly consistent to what has been produced over the last couple years, and mostly keeps up with wells being taken out of production.

    As for what can be brought online in the future, it’s an open question, but doesn’t seem likely to affect short term issues going further into 2022.

  247. @Thulean Friend
    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500826950373462021

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @Blinky Bill

    That's desperation. Sleepy Joe seems unable to predict the consequences of his own incompetence. He is screwed.
  248. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Triteleia Laxa
    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:

    1. Recognises Crimea as Russia.

    2. Allows independence for the twin republics.

    3. Ukraine agrees not to join any blocs.

    I said that he should have offered this before the invasion, and wrote here that he should have offered it 48 hours in, but Putin the Bungler has only just gotten round to reality, but quite possibly too late. Why would the Ukrainians cede sovereignty now, when they know they can win?

    And please no Russian trolls pipe up to say that they should do so to save lives, as if the the threat of suffering casualties should make all proud people immediately surrender to imperial aggression.

    Anyway, I think that Ukraine should agree, but they should get in return:

    1. A written security guarantee that no Russian forces will enter Ukraine again.

    2. That the definition of a "bloc" does not include the EU.

    3. That the twin Republics gain independence on their pre-Russian aggression borders.

    Obviously an apology and compensation should also be sought.

    Or Ukraine could just keep Russia involved in an unwinnable war, where the Russian regime loses credibility by the day and the Russian military moves in the direction of zero combat effectiveness just as fast?

    After all, the Ukrainian military is much stronger now than when the war began, while the Russian military is much weaker and there is zero chance of Russia conducting a successful occupation of Ukraine.

    Anatoly, thoughts?

    Not that I know why I ask. Anything but "Putin is a glorious warlord who is winning this not a war" might well get you arrested.

    Famous Russian leaders:

    Peter the Great
    Catherine the Great
    Putin the Bungler

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mikhail, @Boethiuss, @iffen

    For the record a peace proposal along that line was made earlier at this thread by yours truly as well as beforehand elsewhere.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5214656

    Over the past 24 hours, what I proposed relative to this US political establishment handshakeworthy Putin/Russia bashing prose that will get you on CNN, PBS and NPR:

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/03/how-to-get-to-a-place-of-peace-for-ukraine/

    – Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    – Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    – Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn’t sacrifice the security of another country.

    – In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they’ve utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Agree or disagree with Putin’s call, he gave seven years to see the Minsk Protocol implemented. Nothing! His call for a new security arrangement dissed since 2007.

  249. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler's police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I'll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler's police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler's maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?

    Replies: @Mikhail

    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler’s police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I’ll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler’s police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler’s maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?

    Pure projection on your part. Talk about BS.

    Do you not condemn the Kiev regime’s carnage against the Donbass rebel inhabitants, along with its coddling of Neo-Nazis – points noted in detail at this thread?

    “Manhandles” as how the Kiev regime treats some individuals and orgs with views different from their slant.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don't understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I'll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?

    https://youtu.be/fLcHPV-X_Xo

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib
  250. @A123
    @Aedib

    It is important to look at the delivery date (1)

    WTI Crude

    $121.32 -- APR 2022
    $107.93 -- JUL 2022
    $ �99.28 -- OCT 2022
    The "spot" price of oil drives the pump price of gasoline. So, there is a link to short term inflation of physical products (e.g. grocery stores).

    The price 6 months out is over $20/bbl lower. This suggests that additional supply will be available. Russia oil will return to the market and/or domestic drillers will expand capacity.

    America's issues with hydrocarbon pricing have very little to do with Russia/Ukraine events. The illegitimate Biden regime undercut domestic production. Congress is gearing up to undo this obvious policy blunder: (2)

    The American Energy Independence Act of 2022 will:

    • Instruct federal agencies to identify and rescind existing regulations that have the effect of reducing American energy independence, bars new rules that reduce energy security or raise energy prices, and directs agencies to work to achieve energy independence by 2024.

    • Ease the regulatory burden on energy companies engaged in fracking.

    • Restore the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline after its cancellation by the Biden Administration and eases the process for constructing new pipelines.

    • Defund the United States’ contributions to any provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement.

    • Rescind the Biden Administration’s moratorium on oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

    • Lower the “social cost of carbon” to $0 per ton to focus government standards on boosting domestic energy production, rather than climate change.
    It looks like MAGA got this through the Senate on a 48-47 vote. However, its still has to go to the House, where the anti-American, anti-Worker SJW/DNC will choke on it.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

    (2) https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-leads-bill-restoring-american-energy-independence-ending-reliance-foreign-nations

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Boethiuss

    The illegitimate Biden regime undercut……

    Typical unz comment bullshit. You do realize, of course, that you have written this or something similar in every comment you have written but never once to my recollection every attempted to justify it.

    Cut the shit already. Too many people here are trying too hard to maximize the rhetorical force of their words, when the reality is that people who circulate known bullshit lose credibility everywhere, ie, not just the item of bullshit but everything else besides.

    •�Troll: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Boethiuss

    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)

    Approximately $9 million directed to five Democratic strongholds in Wisconsin violated the state's prohibition on bribery, according to The Federalist's Margot Cleveland, citing a report submitted on Tuesday by a special counsel appointed by the state.

    Spearheaded by retired state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman who was tasked with investigating concerns over election integrity in 2020, the investigation which began last August has resulted in a 150-page report full of recommendations for the state's legislative body which cited "numerous questionable and unlawful actions of various actors in the 2020 election."
    While the details vary from state to state, it is now a matter of objective fact that multiple laws were violated to insert the current illegitimate regime.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/zuckerberg-election-funds-violated-wisconsin-bribery-laws-special-counsel-finds

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  251. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Shock and disbelief.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    •�Thanks: Yevardian
    •�LOL: Pharmakon
  252. Is Imran Khan adopting black rhetoric from his time in the UK?

    https://www.rt.com/news/551382-pakistan-russia-ukraine-resolution/

  253. @Triteleia Laxa
    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:

    1. Recognises Crimea as Russia.

    2. Allows independence for the twin republics.

    3. Ukraine agrees not to join any blocs.

    I said that he should have offered this before the invasion, and wrote here that he should have offered it 48 hours in, but Putin the Bungler has only just gotten round to reality, but quite possibly too late. Why would the Ukrainians cede sovereignty now, when they know they can win?

    And please no Russian trolls pipe up to say that they should do so to save lives, as if the the threat of suffering casualties should make all proud people immediately surrender to imperial aggression.

    Anyway, I think that Ukraine should agree, but they should get in return:

    1. A written security guarantee that no Russian forces will enter Ukraine again.

    2. That the definition of a "bloc" does not include the EU.

    3. That the twin Republics gain independence on their pre-Russian aggression borders.

    Obviously an apology and compensation should also be sought.

    Or Ukraine could just keep Russia involved in an unwinnable war, where the Russian regime loses credibility by the day and the Russian military moves in the direction of zero combat effectiveness just as fast?

    After all, the Ukrainian military is much stronger now than when the war began, while the Russian military is much weaker and there is zero chance of Russia conducting a successful occupation of Ukraine.

    Anatoly, thoughts?

    Not that I know why I ask. Anything but "Putin is a glorious warlord who is winning this not a war" might well get you arrested.

    Famous Russian leaders:

    Peter the Great
    Catherine the Great
    Putin the Bungler

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mikhail, @Boethiuss, @iffen

    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:…..

    I’d be inclined to support something like this, my guess is the United States would as well. The problem is that it really doesn’t solve Russia’s biggest problem, which is the sanctions, and the underlying reality behind them, which is that Russia has lost 10 (20, 50?) years worth of economic grown and standard of living improvements in just a week or so.

    Some of the sanctions against Russia could be withdrawn, maybe, but a lot of them won’t be. Specifically, a lot of the really nasty sanctions against Russia aren’t state sanctions at all anyway. Eg, Rolls Royce says they won’t repair or sell spare parts for their aircraft engines. Whoops, there goes half of Russia’s commercial airplanes our of service. Mastercard won’t process payments for merchants in Russia. There goes Russia’s tourism industry. Etc etc.

    It’s a delicate thing to talk about regime change in Russia because potentially, at least, it’s a very inflammatory subject. But I think we will be talking about it soon enough because I don’t think Russia will be anything other than a pariah state while Putin is still in charge. I don’t know if Putin has figured this out or not, or even if he cares, but at least for me, I don’t see any way for Putin to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Boethiuss

    Putin is not the main problem, we are lucky indeed that we are dealing with him and his clique of incompetent computer illiterate corrupt Soviet boomers. There is quite a big chance that younger RF generation would do the same what he is doing now, just with way more quality in action, so Putin needs to stay until his natural end. This ongoing mugabization of putinism so far has been spectacular.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @utu
    @Boethiuss

    Putin or no Putin Russia has crossed the line from which there is no return. The war, a cold one or a hot one will be waged on Russia until the ultimate Russia's defeat when Russia will come to its senses, drops ideations about revisionism and aspirations for being a world power. Only then Russia will become a normal country and Russians will be able to become normal people. There will be no room for Karlins in Russia.
  254. @Thulean Friend
    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500826950373462021

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

    Sounds like that is it for that particular aspiration, given how much weight Germany has in the EU.

  255. @Boethiuss
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:.....
    I'd be inclined to support something like this, my guess is the United States would as well. The problem is that it really doesn't solve Russia's biggest problem, which is the sanctions, and the underlying reality behind them, which is that Russia has lost 10 (20, 50?) years worth of economic grown and standard of living improvements in just a week or so.

    Some of the sanctions against Russia could be withdrawn, maybe, but a lot of them won't be. Specifically, a lot of the really nasty sanctions against Russia aren't state sanctions at all anyway. Eg, Rolls Royce says they won't repair or sell spare parts for their aircraft engines. Whoops, there goes half of Russia's commercial airplanes our of service. Mastercard won't process payments for merchants in Russia. There goes Russia's tourism industry. Etc etc.

    It's a delicate thing to talk about regime change in Russia because potentially, at least, it's a very inflammatory subject. But I think we will be talking about it soon enough because I don't think Russia will be anything other than a pariah state while Putin is still in charge. I don't know if Putin has figured this out or not, or even if he cares, but at least for me, I don't see any way for Putin to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

    Replies: @sudden death, @utu

    Putin is not the main problem, we are lucky indeed that we are dealing with him and his clique of incompetent computer illiterate corrupt Soviet boomers. There is quite a big chance that younger RF generation would do the same what he is doing now, just with way more quality in action, so Putin needs to stay until his natural end. This ongoing mugabization of putinism so far has been spectacular.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @sudden death

    https://youtu.be/J5Dv_V5ARoQ?t=45


    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1247651714498469888?s=20&t=ZqHseUi13_Hrph_CrMvFcQ
  256. A123 says: •�Website
    @Thulean Friend
    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500826950373462021

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine’s entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    The German Traffic Light coalition includes the Green Party. There is little to no chance that geopolitically insane Greens will allow NS2 to start. Expect wide gaps between what Scholz says versus actual coalition approved policy.

    What we need is realpolitik – which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    MAGA is the U.S. version of realpolitik. WEF Elites located in Davos undermined U.S. democracy and installed a mentally ill coup leader to gain European “liberal authoritarianism”.

    At some point, Europeans will have to stop blaming the fake government that they foisted on Americans. The problem with Europe is Europe. The Fascist Stormtroopers of Antifa existed in Europe many years before the WEF exported them to the U.S.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Replies: @Aedib
    @A123

    Just wait for the next CDU period. May be we will not have to wait so much.
  257. @sudden death
    @Boethiuss

    Putin is not the main problem, we are lucky indeed that we are dealing with him and his clique of incompetent computer illiterate corrupt Soviet boomers. There is quite a big chance that younger RF generation would do the same what he is doing now, just with way more quality in action, so Putin needs to stay until his natural end. This ongoing mugabization of putinism so far has been spectacular.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  258. A123 says: •�Website
    @Boethiuss
    @A123


    The illegitimate Biden regime undercut......
    Typical unz comment bullshit. You do realize, of course, that you have written this or something similar in every comment you have written but never once to my recollection every attempted to justify it.

    Cut the shit already. Too many people here are trying too hard to maximize the rhetorical force of their words, when the reality is that people who circulate known bullshit lose credibility everywhere, ie, not just the item of bullshit but everything else besides.

    Replies: @A123

    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)

    Approximately \$9 million directed to five Democratic strongholds in Wisconsin violated the state’s prohibition on bribery, according to The Federalist’s Margot Cleveland, citing a report submitted on Tuesday by a special counsel appointed by the state.

    Spearheaded by retired state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman who was tasked with investigating concerns over election integrity in 2020, the investigation which began last August has resulted in a 150-page report full of recommendations for the state’s legislative body which cited “numerous questionable and unlawful actions of various actors in the 2020 election.”

    While the details vary from state to state, it is now a matter of objective fact that multiple laws were violated to insert the current illegitimate regime.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/zuckerberg-election-funds-violated-wisconsin-bribery-laws-special-counsel-finds

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @A123


    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)
    This is stupid. As you're probably aware, in the aftermath of the 2020 election President Trump sued everybody and their brother in order reverse the results of the election in a few states so that he, Trump would win. And when Mr. Trump got his day in court, he never attempted to submit any evidence in support of his allegations. Ie, it's not just that Trump lost in court (though he did), he never attempted to argue otherwise in court.

    Even worse, beyond being stupid this is tangential. It's got nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine or any other part of your comments.

    The upshot being that your comments are unnecessary specimens of schizophrenia. Ie, this part is obviously rhetorical bullshit but this other part might actually be relevant. The readers aren't going to sort that kind of thing out. If you have a legitimate point to make, state your case in complete sentences and leave the superfluous bullshit out.

    Replies: @A123
  259. utu says:
    @Boethiuss
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:.....
    I'd be inclined to support something like this, my guess is the United States would as well. The problem is that it really doesn't solve Russia's biggest problem, which is the sanctions, and the underlying reality behind them, which is that Russia has lost 10 (20, 50?) years worth of economic grown and standard of living improvements in just a week or so.

    Some of the sanctions against Russia could be withdrawn, maybe, but a lot of them won't be. Specifically, a lot of the really nasty sanctions against Russia aren't state sanctions at all anyway. Eg, Rolls Royce says they won't repair or sell spare parts for their aircraft engines. Whoops, there goes half of Russia's commercial airplanes our of service. Mastercard won't process payments for merchants in Russia. There goes Russia's tourism industry. Etc etc.

    It's a delicate thing to talk about regime change in Russia because potentially, at least, it's a very inflammatory subject. But I think we will be talking about it soon enough because I don't think Russia will be anything other than a pariah state while Putin is still in charge. I don't know if Putin has figured this out or not, or even if he cares, but at least for me, I don't see any way for Putin to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

    Replies: @sudden death, @utu

    Putin or no Putin Russia has crossed the line from which there is no return. The war, a cold one or a hot one will be waged on Russia until the ultimate Russia’s defeat when Russia will come to its senses, drops ideations about revisionism and aspirations for being a world power. Only then Russia will become a normal country and Russians will be able to become normal people. There will be no room for Karlins in Russia.

    •�LOL: RadicalCenter
  260. @songbird
    Some people are saying that the economic effects of this thing will break the EU.

    But my thought is that Germany will adjust itself to inflation, partly due to the mass influx of foreigners.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    The refugees from the Huns broke Rome. Just saying.

  261. @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/manakgupta/status/1500356124326838275?s=20&t=0WaK3dAbKNxxnUBXx8Us6w

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    See it’s things like this. I’ve noticed the interest the Indians have shown in Ukraine. The Anglosphere only has so much power here. There’s 2.5 billion people who are possibly rooting for Russia.

  262. @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    My comment was purely that Russia has a better case than the US did in Iraq. Not that it has an empirically bullet proof case, just a more plausible one.

    This highlights the shambolic nature of the "rules based international system". Russia and China have correctly read that American might makes right, and are acting accordingly. This is not to necessarily defend them, since , as always the blood and tears of the common man feeds the ambitions of politicians.

    I honestly don't feel that either Russia or the West is blameless in Ukraine. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the Ukrainian people are the ones who will ultimately pay for the ambitions of all sides. It's a tragedy, and I feel deeply for the Ukrainian people who were put into an untenable situation by their own government, the West, and Russia.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

    Don’t forget India. Oddly both Pakistan and India are currying favour with Russia.

    •�Agree: Barbarossa
    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Wokechoke


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNIfmznWYAMMGIi.jpg
  263. @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    My comment was purely that Russia has a better case than the US did in Iraq. Not that it has an empirically bullet proof case, just a more plausible one.

    This highlights the shambolic nature of the "rules based international system". Russia and China have correctly read that American might makes right, and are acting accordingly. This is not to necessarily defend them, since , as always the blood and tears of the common man feeds the ambitions of politicians.

    I honestly don't feel that either Russia or the West is blameless in Ukraine. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the Ukrainian people are the ones who will ultimately pay for the ambitions of all sides. It's a tragedy, and I feel deeply for the Ukrainian people who were put into an untenable situation by their own government, the West, and Russia.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

    The point is that USA in 2003, created a casus belli, with evidence and presentation in the United Nations, that Iraq is going to destroy neighbors with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    They create a casus belli, try to attain international consensus, say they will invade, and then invade.

    Later, this casus belli doesn’t seem very realistic, although it is possible George W. Bush partially believes his own employees’ fake propaganda in 2003.

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    In 2022, Russia says it will not invade, promises foreign politicians it will not invade, then with a few days, they create some small false flags, and invade at night in a surprise (without declaration of war).

    The casus belli is not achieved (unlike in 1999 or 2003), and Putin says he will denazification of Ukraine, which seems as objective for the international community, as after beginning of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, speech to say they will decommunize the USSR, that presents a threat of an anti-Germany.

    Now, they try to talk about a nuclear/biological threat from Ukraine, but it is all very minimum effort. It’s like they want to hint on the theme of an asset-stripped version of the 2003 casus belli.

    In terms of international reaction, obviously China believes it is their self-interest to watch. Any result of this war, means Russia becomes more dependent on China, which is improvement of China’s leverage in balance of power relative to Russia.

    But likely one of the important lessons, they will be viewing, is the importance of casus belli, before invasion of Taiwan. They might need to create narrative that would justify an invasion of Taiwan, beyond saying it is their self-interest.

    Although they can at least try to build from the principle of “territorial integrity”, which was sufficient for Azerbaijan to go to war with Armenia, in 2020. Aliev’s “success” (if you can use this word in context of the deaths of thousands of young men) in 2020, was not only in military, but also in international relations. Aliev in 2020 has maneuvered, not just effectively in the battle (with use of modern technology), but also in diplomacy and international law.

    •�Replies: @utu
    @Dmitry

    Seeing the unification and the resolve of the West in response to Russian aggression China wakes up to new reality that their fantasy of reclaiming Taiwan is not realistic. It is very hard for them on psychological level to accept it because of years of self-inflicted jingoistic propaganda conditioning but they will see through it being more realistic and pragmatic.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.
    It wasn't really widely believed outside of the US that Iraq was a threat to the US back in 2003, the idea was quite patently ridiculous, and you have to remember that the US and its allies not only didn't get a UN mandate for the invasion, France and Germany openly opposed it and there were huge anti-war demos in pretty much every Western country. Of course the US did still get the support of some of its major allies (or vassals?) like Britain, Italy, Spain and Australia, but that was just a reflection of US power, not because the case for war against Iraq was convincing.
    It could be argued that the Russian talk about "Nazis" in Ukraine is even dumber, but the main difference is just that Russia doesn't have the status of a hegemon over an alliance system the US has.

    Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry


    Later, this casus belli doesn’t seem very realistic,
    That's sugar coating it to the extreme. Iraq was on the invasion wish list prior to even 9/11. The only work was shoehorning a rationale in. Certainly Bush or Powell may have believed to some extent the propaganda on WMD, but it was a concocted fairy tale.

    So what you are arguing is that Russia just needs more convincing BS to be able to "legitimately" invade countries like the U.S. does? Russia just isn't tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?

    The "rules based international order" has little moral high ground and Russia is currently calling that bluff. That is not in praise of Russian actions, just the basic facts. If multilateralism and consensus is deep sixed as a governing world concept the U.S. can look hard at it's own reflection for the answer as to why.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  264. utu says:
    @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    The point is that USA in 2003, created a casus belli, with evidence and presentation in the United Nations, that Iraq is going to destroy neighbors with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    They create a casus belli, try to attain international consensus, say they will invade, and then invade.

    Later, this casus belli doesn't seem very realistic, although it is possible George W. Bush partially believes his own employees' fake propaganda in 2003.

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    In 2022, Russia says it will not invade, promises foreign politicians it will not invade, then with a few days, they create some small false flags, and invade at night in a surprise (without declaration of war).

    The casus belli is not achieved (unlike in 1999 or 2003), and Putin says he will denazification of Ukraine, which seems as objective for the international community, as after beginning of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, speech to say they will decommunize the USSR, that presents a threat of an anti-Germany.

    Now, they try to talk about a nuclear/biological threat from Ukraine, but it is all very minimum effort. It's like they want to hint on the theme of an asset-stripped version of the 2003 casus belli.

    -

    In terms of international reaction, obviously China believes it is their self-interest to watch. Any result of this war, means Russia becomes more dependent on China, which is improvement of China's leverage in balance of power relative to Russia.

    But likely one of the important lessons, they will be viewing, is the importance of casus belli, before invasion of Taiwan. They might need to create narrative that would justify an invasion of Taiwan, beyond saying it is their self-interest.

    Although they can at least try to build from the principle of "territorial integrity", which was sufficient for Azerbaijan to go to war with Armenia, in 2020. Aliev's "success" (if you can use this word in context of the deaths of thousands of young men) in 2020, was not only in military, but also in international relations. Aliev in 2020 has maneuvered, not just effectively in the battle (with use of modern technology), but also in diplomacy and international law.

    Replies: @utu, @German_reader, @Barbarossa

    Seeing the unification and the resolve of the West in response to Russian aggression China wakes up to new reality that their fantasy of reclaiming Taiwan is not realistic. It is very hard for them on psychological level to accept it because of years of self-inflicted jingoistic propaganda conditioning but they will see through it being more realistic and pragmatic.

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @utu

    The only unity in the west is the top .0001%.

    The rest of us are split 50-50.

    Replies: @utu
  265. @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/Angelo4justice3/status/1500791290019172354?s=20&t=2Uoz7CX6G4UM5j5iaR_i0A

    Replies: @Aedib

    That’s desperation. Sleepy Joe seems unable to predict the consequences of his own incompetence. He is screwed.

  266. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    The point is that USA in 2003, created a casus belli, with evidence and presentation in the United Nations, that Iraq is going to destroy neighbors with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    They create a casus belli, try to attain international consensus, say they will invade, and then invade.

    Later, this casus belli doesn't seem very realistic, although it is possible George W. Bush partially believes his own employees' fake propaganda in 2003.

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    In 2022, Russia says it will not invade, promises foreign politicians it will not invade, then with a few days, they create some small false flags, and invade at night in a surprise (without declaration of war).

    The casus belli is not achieved (unlike in 1999 or 2003), and Putin says he will denazification of Ukraine, which seems as objective for the international community, as after beginning of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, speech to say they will decommunize the USSR, that presents a threat of an anti-Germany.

    Now, they try to talk about a nuclear/biological threat from Ukraine, but it is all very minimum effort. It's like they want to hint on the theme of an asset-stripped version of the 2003 casus belli.

    -

    In terms of international reaction, obviously China believes it is their self-interest to watch. Any result of this war, means Russia becomes more dependent on China, which is improvement of China's leverage in balance of power relative to Russia.

    But likely one of the important lessons, they will be viewing, is the importance of casus belli, before invasion of Taiwan. They might need to create narrative that would justify an invasion of Taiwan, beyond saying it is their self-interest.

    Although they can at least try to build from the principle of "territorial integrity", which was sufficient for Azerbaijan to go to war with Armenia, in 2020. Aliev's "success" (if you can use this word in context of the deaths of thousands of young men) in 2020, was not only in military, but also in international relations. Aliev in 2020 has maneuvered, not just effectively in the battle (with use of modern technology), but also in diplomacy and international law.

    Replies: @utu, @German_reader, @Barbarossa

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    It wasn’t really widely believed outside of the US that Iraq was a threat to the US back in 2003, the idea was quite patently ridiculous, and you have to remember that the US and its allies not only didn’t get a UN mandate for the invasion, France and Germany openly opposed it and there were huge anti-war demos in pretty much every Western country. Of course the US did still get the support of some of its major allies (or vassals?) like Britain, Italy, Spain and Australia, but that was just a reflection of US power, not because the case for war against Iraq was convincing.
    It could be argued that the Russian talk about “Nazis” in Ukraine is even dumber, but the main difference is just that Russia doesn’t have the status of a hegemon over an alliance system the US has.

    •�Thanks: Barbarossa
    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Whether a casus belli like 2003 is believed or not (many people probably do not believe the casus belli in 1999), there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN, attempt to present objectivity (even if nobody believes it), engagement of international community (even if most of the international community disagrees), description of plans for war, and then declaration of war.

    It's very different to saying you would not attack to everyone, and then attacking, with a speech about denazification, and no declaration of war.

    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it's not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.

    Although, China can perhaps argue for "territorial integrity" principle, for Taiwan invasion, as it seems to be successful for Azerbaijan. This "territorial integrity" principle allows you to argue that you are not just doing Mongol/Viking style of war of conquest, but trying to "support international law" and "objective principles". There might be the Mongol/Viking motives in such war, but for any international consensus would need to present it as objective bureaucracy.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Coconuts
  267. @utu
    @Dmitry

    Seeing the unification and the resolve of the West in response to Russian aggression China wakes up to new reality that their fantasy of reclaiming Taiwan is not realistic. It is very hard for them on psychological level to accept it because of years of self-inflicted jingoistic propaganda conditioning but they will see through it being more realistic and pragmatic.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    The only unity in the west is the top .0001%.

    The rest of us are split 50-50.

    •�Agree: LondonBob
    •�Replies: @utu
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    On Putin and Russia the split is 80-20. The 20% are mostly the rightoids that you can encounter at pro Putin propaganda sites like The Unz Review. Being pro Putin is deplorable pretty much everywhere in the West.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Emil Nikola Richard
  268. @AaronB
    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Probably the people coming off the silliest in this thing are the"rationalists".

    Ron Unz insisted that Putin would absolutely never invade, because Unz absolutely correctly perceived that it made zero rational and practical sense for him to do so. The silly NATO stuff was obviously not sufficient pretext from a national interest perspective, so Ron knew Putin would not invade.

    After all, according to Ron Russia and China are "rational" - because technocratic, totalitarian - whereas only the US is "irrational" and ideological (democratic, chaotic, etc).

    Now, of course, Ron is insisting that Putin had absolutely no choice but to invade because of NATO in Ukraine etc etc etc. It was merely the totally rational thing to do, don't you see.

    And so the rationalist hamster spins it's wheel to maintain the tottering intellectual facade that "reason" rules on human affairs.

    And yet, had Ron merely consulted his own irrational "thumotic" tendencies - his "thumotic" hatred of Jews - he would have understood a man like Putin well.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and "thumotic" reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class - Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    The old, classical, thumotic human motives for war - still with us after the liberals assured us we are in a new age of rationality, represented by technocratic efficiency etc. Yet utterly incapable of being comprehended by the rationalists, as usual.

    Karlin, having moved out of the West and back to Mother Russia, had reconnected to his thumotic side and rediscovered emotions and sides of his personality that the West does not recognize or allow to emerge.

    That is why Karlins persona is so much more "strange" and "ugly" and "aggressive" this time around - it is the final unravelling of the residues of a liberal persona and a return to an archaic, thumotic mode that seems so shocking to our late liberal sensibilities.

    (well, not mine, I viscerally understand this kind of thing very well, although it is the work of spirituality to overcome it).

    Worth noting that Karlins transition is not complete, as indicated in his Hitler-like "conditional" support for Mother Russia that hinges on its success - not the true thumotic devotion one might find in ancient Rome, Greece, Israel, etc, and that alone truly leads to "greatness" (whether greatness is desirable is another question).

    As partial children of modernity, figures like Hitler or Karlin cannot truly return to the thumotic archaic mode that has been the engine of greatness in history - worship of soulless "efficiency" still clings to them - and they remain doomed to failure.

    Likewise, China's desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it's well supplied modern weaponry and full American support - but thumotic considerations are not rational.

    For sure, when that times comes the silly rationalists will insist that China cannot possible start a war because it makes no rational sense, and when it happens, they will insist it was the only truly rational thing to do - so remaining silly to the end and never learning anything, trapped in their narrow world view.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver, @Justvisiting, @Coconuts

    Ukraine is a disorganized, asset-stripped, third world country, with impossible to defend geography and no protection from the international community. Ukraine is impossible to defend flat land, with only some mud (in spring) and (in summer) deciduous forest to protect them, as well as the cities (invitation to urban war), and nationalist population. It appears like an unlocked house, otherwise.

    To compare with China’s invasion of Taiwan, which is a very locked house?

    China still has some discipline of communism and will have a more organized and less asset-stripped military capacity than Russia. But Taiwan is an island, with a more advanced development per capita than China and years of preparation for defense.

    An attempt for an amphibious invasion of a fortified island, could likely become one of the most famous military disasters of the 21st century, where every soldier has to be transported by vulnerable ships, and then climb over fortified beaches.

    It’s like someone has designed a perfect “Panda trap”, which China needs to avoid falling to.

    Of course, China should need to deconstruct the “Panda trap”, instead of standing their foot inside it (e.g. trying amphibious invasions of a fortified island). This is, they would better to construction some kind of internal coup inside Taiwan.

    •�Replies: @AaronB
    @Dmitry

    I admit I don't follow military developments very much, but I was under the impression that Russian military technology and capability in general was superior to that of China.

    I thought that was one of Russia's main strengths, at least reading all the Unz commenters (which obviously I should not be relying on for serious information lol).

    Either way, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China, obviously.

    That doesn't mean they won't attempt it - thumotic considerations, the primary motivation for China, are irrational, and authoritarian dictatorships have famously corrupted information streams and decision making processes.

    Widespread corruption and the softness that comes from prosperity makes today's generation of Chinese very different than the one willing to make such supreme sacrifices and put up with such hardship during WW2 - and Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it's equipment, and the morale of it's troops, are hard to assess, but likely as with Russia, not close to the propoganda.

    The interesting thing about the "rise" of China and Russia is that they do not attempt to frame their actions in terms of a universal moral framework, or develop a global system for the benefit of all.

    It's just naked self-interest and dreams of zero-sum personal glory and superiority without any larger vision or unifying framework. It's actually remarkably small minded and archaic.

    The American led glob system was and is obviously deeply corrupt and unfair, and as is known I am no fan of capitalism - but there was a genuine attempt to develop a universal moral vision and a system of mutual inter-benefit, however wrongheaded.

    Today, of course, the West is dying and it's spiritual vision has become corrupted to the point of being a malign force in the world.

    But what's remarkable is how there is nothing to supplant it.

    If China really wanted to once again be the "Middle Kingdom" and supplant the West, it would draw on it's tradition to develop a new and revitalized vision of a universal moral order and the inter-benefit of all states, which is actually something deeply rooted in traditional Chinese morality.

    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest - we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power. Granted, this can provide a certain level of motivation for a while, but this is a fundamentally petty vision - and utterly reactive - and one unworthy of any great people if it aspires to any leadership role.

    How different the vision America and the West had at least for a while.

    America and the West are badly in need of renewal and revitalization on a completely different basis - yes, a spiritual basis.

    But so is the entire world, and so are we all.

    Perhaps, first, the corrupted spiritual vision of the West has first to collapse into a morass of petty squabbling self interested states before the world can regenerate on a healthy spiritual basis.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird
    , @Wokechoke
    @Dmitry

    It's called submarines. Mke sure every airport is getting pounder with missiles 24/7. End of Taiwan.
  269. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    The point is that USA in 2003, created a casus belli, with evidence and presentation in the United Nations, that Iraq is going to destroy neighbors with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

    They create a casus belli, try to attain international consensus, say they will invade, and then invade.

    Later, this casus belli doesn't seem very realistic, although it is possible George W. Bush partially believes his own employees' fake propaganda in 2003.

    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.

    In 2022, Russia says it will not invade, promises foreign politicians it will not invade, then with a few days, they create some small false flags, and invade at night in a surprise (without declaration of war).

    The casus belli is not achieved (unlike in 1999 or 2003), and Putin says he will denazification of Ukraine, which seems as objective for the international community, as after beginning of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, speech to say they will decommunize the USSR, that presents a threat of an anti-Germany.

    Now, they try to talk about a nuclear/biological threat from Ukraine, but it is all very minimum effort. It's like they want to hint on the theme of an asset-stripped version of the 2003 casus belli.

    -

    In terms of international reaction, obviously China believes it is their self-interest to watch. Any result of this war, means Russia becomes more dependent on China, which is improvement of China's leverage in balance of power relative to Russia.

    But likely one of the important lessons, they will be viewing, is the importance of casus belli, before invasion of Taiwan. They might need to create narrative that would justify an invasion of Taiwan, beyond saying it is their self-interest.

    Although they can at least try to build from the principle of "territorial integrity", which was sufficient for Azerbaijan to go to war with Armenia, in 2020. Aliev's "success" (if you can use this word in context of the deaths of thousands of young men) in 2020, was not only in military, but also in international relations. Aliev in 2020 has maneuvered, not just effectively in the battle (with use of modern technology), but also in diplomacy and international law.

    Replies: @utu, @German_reader, @Barbarossa

    Later, this casus belli doesn’t seem very realistic,

    That’s sugar coating it to the extreme. Iraq was on the invasion wish list prior to even 9/11. The only work was shoehorning a rationale in. Certainly Bush or Powell may have believed to some extent the propaganda on WMD, but it was a concocted fairy tale.

    So what you are arguing is that Russia just needs more convincing BS to be able to “legitimately” invade countries like the U.S. does? Russia just isn’t tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?

    The “rules based international order” has little moral high ground and Russia is currently calling that bluff. That is not in praise of Russian actions, just the basic facts. If multilateralism and consensus is deep sixed as a governing world concept the U.S. can look hard at it’s own reflection for the answer as to why.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa


    Russia just needs more convincing BS
    Yes, although without the "just" from this sentence.

    I wrote this in like 4 times now, so I am not sure require me to re-write everything.

    It's not "just needs". It's not sufficient condition, but casus belli is a necessary condition to reduce the international reaction.

    I'm not saying a country "just need" to manufacture a casus belli before a war of aggression, anymore than you "just need to fill your suitcase before to go for the vacation" (there are many other conditions involved, like buying tickets). But you should remember to fill your suitcase.

    Russia just isn’t tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?
    Well, look at the Second Chechen War, which is a more complicated situation, as it happens during internal political confrontation within Russian political system itself, and within "territorial integrity" of the Russian Federation.

    But among other things supporting reduction of international reaction to this war (like principle of territorial integrity, better relations with the West), you can see also likely effect of manufacturing casus belli, results in lesser international reaction. There appear to be no sanctions, for example, despite condemning speeches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War#Human_rights_and_terrorism

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa
  270. @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    But this casus belli explains the war for the international community, at least during the war itself.
    It wasn't really widely believed outside of the US that Iraq was a threat to the US back in 2003, the idea was quite patently ridiculous, and you have to remember that the US and its allies not only didn't get a UN mandate for the invasion, France and Germany openly opposed it and there were huge anti-war demos in pretty much every Western country. Of course the US did still get the support of some of its major allies (or vassals?) like Britain, Italy, Spain and Australia, but that was just a reflection of US power, not because the case for war against Iraq was convincing.
    It could be argued that the Russian talk about "Nazis" in Ukraine is even dumber, but the main difference is just that Russia doesn't have the status of a hegemon over an alliance system the US has.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Whether a casus belli like 2003 is believed or not (many people probably do not believe the casus belli in 1999), there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN, attempt to present objectivity (even if nobody believes it), engagement of international community (even if most of the international community disagrees), description of plans for war, and then declaration of war.

    It’s very different to saying you would not attack to everyone, and then attacking, with a speech about denazification, and no declaration of war.

    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it’s not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.

    Although, China can perhaps argue for “territorial integrity” principle, for Taiwan invasion, as it seems to be successful for Azerbaijan. This “territorial integrity” principle allows you to argue that you are not just doing Mongol/Viking style of war of conquest, but trying to “support international law” and “objective principles”. There might be the Mongol/Viking motives in such war, but for any international consensus would need to present it as objective bureaucracy.

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN
    Which wasn't successful, the US didn't get a UN mandate for war against Iraq. The claims about WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn't really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military means.
    You're probably too young to remember it (and in any case you didn't live in a Western country then), but the war was really hugely damaging to America's image, and I'm not sure it has ever totally recovered.
    Of course it could be argued that the damage to Russia's reputation from the Ukraine invasion is even worse, for various reasons (e.g. I can't say I like Zelensky all that much, but he's a democratically elected politician, not an odious tyrant like Saddam and his psycho sons were)...but you're really going too far when you're trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft to be emulated.

    Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Coconuts
    @Dmitry


    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it’s not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.
    From what I have been able to pick up about the way the Ukraine operation is understood by Putin and the army command, it is supposed to be about removing from power some cabal of extremist Fascist nationalists, foreign influenced factionalists etc. who they believe have usurped political power and fatally divided the Russian peoples by their schemes (i.e. it is a kind of semi-civil war situation). From this point of view the cause of the intervention would have to be different to a casus belli between two states which recognised each other's full sovereignty and independence.

    Clearly this point of view won't be recognised by many countries, or they might not even be aware of this as a possible motivation for what is going on.
  271. @silviosilver
    @Barbarossa


    not that I place any hope in their relative virtue.
    Neither do I. In fact, I'm not even convinced they are relatively more virtuous. Though it's sad to dwell on, if you're seeking virtue, the arena of international relations is the last place you should look. All states were formed by aggression, and it's only a matter of going back far enough in time to find it and cast self-justificatory aspersions over it. No one's hands are entirely clean. But in terms of having made redress for past misdeeds, the west actually looks pretty good in comparison to everybody else.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    he west actually looks pretty good in comparison to everybody else

    The real tragedy is the thought of what could have been if the American hegemony had been handled very differently. The Pax Romana lasted 200 years, but we got nothing of the kind from the American Empire. Idiocy and mismanagement have ensured that America will have little more than 30 years in the sun, with much of that time spent on pyrrhic conquests that were ultimately counterproductive and destructive for all parties.

    The most offensive aspects of the American Empire are both their pompous moralizing and their absolute incompetence on the world stage. What a stupid combination.

    As a side point however, sometimes I wonder if redressing past misdeeds is in some ways a cover for perpetrating more in the present.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
  272. @Wokechoke
    @Barbarossa

    Don’t forget India. Oddly both Pakistan and India are currying favour with Russia.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  273. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Whether a casus belli like 2003 is believed or not (many people probably do not believe the casus belli in 1999), there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN, attempt to present objectivity (even if nobody believes it), engagement of international community (even if most of the international community disagrees), description of plans for war, and then declaration of war.

    It's very different to saying you would not attack to everyone, and then attacking, with a speech about denazification, and no declaration of war.

    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it's not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.

    Although, China can perhaps argue for "territorial integrity" principle, for Taiwan invasion, as it seems to be successful for Azerbaijan. This "territorial integrity" principle allows you to argue that you are not just doing Mongol/Viking style of war of conquest, but trying to "support international law" and "objective principles". There might be the Mongol/Viking motives in such war, but for any international consensus would need to present it as objective bureaucracy.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Coconuts

    there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN

    Which wasn’t successful, the US didn’t get a UN mandate for war against Iraq. The claims about WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military means.
    You’re probably too young to remember it (and in any case you didn’t live in a Western country then), but the war was really hugely damaging to America’s image, and I’m not sure it has ever totally recovered.
    Of course it could be argued that the damage to Russia’s reputation from the Ukraine invasion is even worse, for various reasons (e.g. I can’t say I like Zelensky all that much, but he’s a democratically elected politician, not an odious tyrant like Saddam and his psycho sons were)…but you’re really going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft to be emulated.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft
    Where have I said 2003 is the "model of sophisticated statecraft"? This seems to be your subjective projection to my comments, of something I have not written.

    I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like "attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003" vs "no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022".

    If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

    I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

    WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military
    Of course, but I'm talking with Barbarossa about "creating of pretext" vs "not creating of pretext, then surprise attack".

    I'm not talking about "having pretext" vs "not having pretext". This is about "creating pretext".

    It's not "just war" vs "unjust war". "Just war" would require "having pretext", not "creating pretext".

    My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is "just war" according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a "unjust war with manufactured pretext".

    But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill, @Mikel
  274. @A123
    @Boethiuss

    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)

    Approximately $9 million directed to five Democratic strongholds in Wisconsin violated the state's prohibition on bribery, according to The Federalist's Margot Cleveland, citing a report submitted on Tuesday by a special counsel appointed by the state.

    Spearheaded by retired state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman who was tasked with investigating concerns over election integrity in 2020, the investigation which began last August has resulted in a 150-page report full of recommendations for the state's legislative body which cited "numerous questionable and unlawful actions of various actors in the 2020 election."
    While the details vary from state to state, it is now a matter of objective fact that multiple laws were violated to insert the current illegitimate regime.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/zuckerberg-election-funds-violated-wisconsin-bribery-laws-special-counsel-finds

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)

    This is stupid. As you’re probably aware, in the aftermath of the 2020 election President Trump sued everybody and their brother in order reverse the results of the election in a few states so that he, Trump would win. And when Mr. Trump got his day in court, he never attempted to submit any evidence in support of his allegations. Ie, it’s not just that Trump lost in court (though he did), he never attempted to argue otherwise in court.

    Even worse, beyond being stupid this is tangential. It’s got nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine or any other part of your comments.

    The upshot being that your comments are unnecessary specimens of schizophrenia. Ie, this part is obviously rhetorical bullshit but this other part might actually be relevant. The readers aren’t going to sort that kind of thing out. If you have a legitimate point to make, state your case in complete sentences and leave the superfluous bullshit out.

    •�LOL: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Boethiuss

    Thank you for admitting that you are a Stupid BS Troll and/or share Drooling' Joe's staggeringly limited mental capacity.

    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden's Impeachment trial(s).
    ___

    How are logic & facts tangential?

    As Not-The-President Biden is illegitimate, he does not represent America. Thus, when assigning blame one must use language that calls out the SJW/DNC and their WEF masters.
    ____

    When you are capable of admitting the TRUTH about the Blue Coup, feel free to do so.

    Until then your Dementia, Alzheimer's, and uncivil Troll BS will prevent you from making meaningful contributions to the discussion. In fact, your substance free, mouth frothing, #NeverTrump outbursts strengthen my position. I appreciate your profoundly incompetent, feeble, and unconvincing opposition.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  275. @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry


    Later, this casus belli doesn’t seem very realistic,
    That's sugar coating it to the extreme. Iraq was on the invasion wish list prior to even 9/11. The only work was shoehorning a rationale in. Certainly Bush or Powell may have believed to some extent the propaganda on WMD, but it was a concocted fairy tale.

    So what you are arguing is that Russia just needs more convincing BS to be able to "legitimately" invade countries like the U.S. does? Russia just isn't tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?

    The "rules based international order" has little moral high ground and Russia is currently calling that bluff. That is not in praise of Russian actions, just the basic facts. If multilateralism and consensus is deep sixed as a governing world concept the U.S. can look hard at it's own reflection for the answer as to why.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Russia just needs more convincing BS

    Yes, although without the “just” from this sentence.

    I wrote this in like 4 times now, so I am not sure require me to re-write everything.

    It’s not “just needs”. It’s not sufficient condition, but casus belli is a necessary condition to reduce the international reaction.

    I’m not saying a country “just need” to manufacture a casus belli before a war of aggression, anymore than you “just need to fill your suitcase before to go for the vacation” (there are many other conditions involved, like buying tickets). But you should remember to fill your suitcase.

    Russia just isn’t tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?

    Well, look at the Second Chechen War, which is a more complicated situation, as it happens during internal political confrontation within Russian political system itself, and within “territorial integrity” of the Russian Federation.

    But among other things supporting reduction of international reaction to this war (like principle of territorial integrity, better relations with the West), you can see also likely effect of manufacturing casus belli, results in lesser international reaction. There appear to be no sanctions, for example, despite condemning speeches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War#Human_rights_and_terrorism

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Dmitry


    Russia just needs more convincing BS

    ...you need to remove “just” from this sentence.
    Don't we need less BS? And not Russia moving into the BS world?

    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to "BS" on the level that West does. They wouldn't be allowed. That is a given.

    BS is basically a massive society-wide lying. Mostly to its own population who then become more stupid and dysfunctional. Some in the West like it and giggle that it 'works'. But it is not working now - Washington is doing PR instead of achieving its objectives. They hope that others - Ukrainians - will do it for them. They won't.

    Ukraine will not be in NATO, it will be demilitarized. That was the number one goal to surround Russia. The years-old expensive strategy has spectacularly failed. The screaming and crying are there to cover up this failure. When it is over and we are still around, this reality will be quietly accepted. And everybody in the West will suddenly pretend that 'there was no plan for NATO in Ukraine, so it is no loss'. Right.

    Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    Whether there is a temporarily convincing, while empty, casus belli or not is immaterial. The underlying war, such as Iraq is still wholly unjustified.

    From a standpoint of preserving or caring about an international order and rules, an invasion such as Russia's of Ukraine is actually preferable to one such as the American invasion of Iraq.

    An attack such as the Russian one is clearly outside the expressed "norms". Putin has little pretense about that and seemingly couldn't care less. While it is a violation of such norms it's main danger to these rules is one of power; essentially that Putin can "get away" with it.

    The American example in Iraq is much more destructive because it is not only an act against such norms, but it makes a complete mockery of the entire structure and process by using lies and deception to seemingly work within it. An invasion such as Iraq fundamentally de-legitimizes the entire international order.

    As such, the international repercussions against America after the Iraq invasion should have been sure and swift to demonstrate that such deception will not be tolerated. This reaction would have given legitimacy to the idea that the system works impartially.

    It's like I tell my kids, lying about doing X is far far worse than actually doing X. Also, no one likes a game where one kid gets to write and re-write the rules. The other kids go find some other game to play.

    It's all a rather academic exercise at this point, since the international system has been hopelessly gamed and biased and will be unlikely to gain real legitimacy any time in the foreseeable future.
    Putin is not interested in playing within an international system which is rigged against him and as such sees little point in assembling a rationale to appease an international community who will never countenance his desired actions.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  276. @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Ukraine is a disorganized, asset-stripped, third world country, with impossible to defend geography and no protection from the international community. Ukraine is impossible to defend flat land, with only some mud (in spring) and (in summer) deciduous forest to protect them, as well as the cities (invitation to urban war), and nationalist population. It appears like an unlocked house, otherwise.

    To compare with China's invasion of Taiwan, which is a very locked house?

    China still has some discipline of communism and will have a more organized and less asset-stripped military capacity than Russia. But Taiwan is an island, with a more advanced development per capita than China and years of preparation for defense.

    An attempt for an amphibious invasion of a fortified island, could likely become one of the most famous military disasters of the 21st century, where every soldier has to be transported by vulnerable ships, and then climb over fortified beaches.

    It's like someone has designed a perfect "Panda trap", which China needs to avoid falling to.

    Of course, China should need to deconstruct the "Panda trap", instead of standing their foot inside it (e.g. trying amphibious invasions of a fortified island). This is, they would better to construction some kind of internal coup inside Taiwan.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke

    I admit I don’t follow military developments very much, but I was under the impression that Russian military technology and capability in general was superior to that of China.

    I thought that was one of Russia’s main strengths, at least reading all the Unz commenters (which obviously I should not be relying on for serious information lol).

    Either way, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China, obviously.

    That doesn’t mean they won’t attempt it – thumotic considerations, the primary motivation for China, are irrational, and authoritarian dictatorships have famously corrupted information streams and decision making processes.

    Widespread corruption and the softness that comes from prosperity makes today’s generation of Chinese very different than the one willing to make such supreme sacrifices and put up with such hardship during WW2 – and Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it’s equipment, and the morale of it’s troops, are hard to assess, but likely as with Russia, not close to the propoganda.

    The interesting thing about the “rise” of China and Russia is that they do not attempt to frame their actions in terms of a universal moral framework, or develop a global system for the benefit of all.

    It’s just naked self-interest and dreams of zero-sum personal glory and superiority without any larger vision or unifying framework. It’s actually remarkably small minded and archaic.

    The American led glob system was and is obviously deeply corrupt and unfair, and as is known I am no fan of capitalism – but there was a genuine attempt to develop a universal moral vision and a system of mutual inter-benefit, however wrongheaded.

    Today, of course, the West is dying and it’s spiritual vision has become corrupted to the point of being a malign force in the world.

    But what’s remarkable is how there is nothing to supplant it.

    If China really wanted to once again be the “Middle Kingdom” and supplant the West, it would draw on it’s tradition to develop a new and revitalized vision of a universal moral order and the inter-benefit of all states, which is actually something deeply rooted in traditional Chinese morality.

    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest – we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power. Granted, this can provide a certain level of motivation for a while, but this is a fundamentally petty vision – and utterly reactive – and one unworthy of any great people if it aspires to any leadership role.

    How different the vision America and the West had at least for a while.

    America and the West are badly in need of renewal and revitalization on a completely different basis – yes, a spiritual basis.

    But so is the entire world, and so are we all.

    Perhaps, first, the corrupted spiritual vision of the West has first to collapse into a morass of petty squabbling self interested states before the world can regenerate on a healthy spiritual basis.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @AaronB


    Russian military technology and capability in general was superior
    At the end of 1991, the new Russian Federation has inherited most of the military capacity of the USSR. This was the most powerful land army of the second half of the 20th century. The Soviet army was the priority of a superpower.

    Today, the armed forces of the Russian Federation, still has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, the largest number of tanks and armored vehicles, etc.

    But a question is, what extent has military been asset-stripped, by now? These are unknown questions, that probably Shoigu himself cannot even say.

    I know someone (I would not say friend), whose father was somekind of important officer, now international super wealthy people. He himself has been in the army for a year or something - of Cyprus. Where is their money from? Are they just "talented businessmen"?

    Modern equipment including fighter-bombers, are using consumer electronics. Officers are communicating with Baofeng radio, you can buy from Aliexpress. So, there are probably some hints of asset-stripping.

    However, even military officers, probably do not know the answer for a question of how much there has been asset-stripping in the military.

    Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it’s equipment,

    I think we can assume that Chinese military equipment would be less asset-stripped. And they have a larger budget.

    But there areas, like development of fighter-jet engines, where they seemed to fail for years, and need to import Russian engines.

    Probably, China is in some transition stage there.

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China,
    More than a million soldiers (to have 3-1 attacker to defender ratio) would have been transported in boats across the sea, where boats would be destroyed, with perhaps thousands of people killed in each one. They would be going to fortified beaches and facing a land-based artillery.

    So, Taiwan, would have more local concentration of fire, logistics and ammunition, than China.

    All logistics for more than million soldiers, would have to be transport by sea, in battle zone and somehow transported from the beaches. It would require many more ships, than China has access for.

    Landing beaches in Taiwan surrounded by mountains, where Taiwan's army would be fortified.

    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    f China really wanted to once again be the “Middle Kingdom”
    I haven't been in China, but my intuitive concept is that their culture prioritizes currently trading and economic development.

    Replies: @Adept
    , @songbird
    @AaronB


    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest – we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power.
    I believe it is inculcated in school, not to mention film.

    I've said before that I admire it, and I do. This lets me see the positive side of it, which goes beyond the obvious narrative of material and scientific progress.

    Ultimately, IMO, the Century of Humiliation is just a Chinese nationalist's formalization of the Eastern impulse to "save face." Now, obviously, "saving face" is not always unalloyed good, but it is often associated with Confucianism, so there are philosophical and pro-social aspects to it. Inherently, it involves "theory of mind."

    Maybe, it is often a very simple "theory of mind", concerned with the things that men have been concerned about since primordial times. Whether someone else is laughing at their expense, whether they might lose social status. But those impulses, as selfish as they seem at first glance, can encourage all sorts of pro-social behaviors, where empty moralizing would not. It can prevent a man from blowing his top.

    And, ultimately, in a national frame, some "theory of mind" is better than none. A Chinese man might argue against a rash course of national action by saying, "China would become the laughing stock of the world." Could an American? IMO, it is not in our toolkit.
  277. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa


    Russia just needs more convincing BS
    Yes, although without the "just" from this sentence.

    I wrote this in like 4 times now, so I am not sure require me to re-write everything.

    It's not "just needs". It's not sufficient condition, but casus belli is a necessary condition to reduce the international reaction.

    I'm not saying a country "just need" to manufacture a casus belli before a war of aggression, anymore than you "just need to fill your suitcase before to go for the vacation" (there are many other conditions involved, like buying tickets). But you should remember to fill your suitcase.

    Russia just isn’t tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?
    Well, look at the Second Chechen War, which is a more complicated situation, as it happens during internal political confrontation within Russian political system itself, and within "territorial integrity" of the Russian Federation.

    But among other things supporting reduction of international reaction to this war (like principle of territorial integrity, better relations with the West), you can see also likely effect of manufacturing casus belli, results in lesser international reaction. There appear to be no sanctions, for example, despite condemning speeches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War#Human_rights_and_terrorism

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa

    Russia just needs more convincing BS

    …you need to remove “just” from this sentence.

    Don’t we need less BS? And not Russia moving into the BS world?

    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to “BS” on the level that West does. They wouldn’t be allowed. That is a given.

    BS is basically a massive society-wide lying. Mostly to its own population who then become more stupid and dysfunctional. Some in the West like it and giggle that it ‘works’. But it is not working now – Washington is doing PR instead of achieving its objectives. They hope that others – Ukrainians – will do it for them. They won’t.

    Ukraine will not be in NATO, it will be demilitarized. That was the number one goal to surround Russia. The years-old expensive strategy has spectacularly failed. The screaming and crying are there to cover up this failure. When it is over and we are still around, this reality will be quietly accepted. And everybody in the West will suddenly pretend that ‘there was no plan for NATO in Ukraine, so it is no loss‘. Right.

    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @Beckow


    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to “BS” on the level that West does. They wouldn’t be allowed. That is a given.
    I am not at all sure that he knows that. He is enough of a libtard faggot that it's perfectly possible this obvious-to-all reality completely eludes him.

    Or perhaps it's this wannabe Jew's inner Israel-firster coming out, since the Iraq war was conceived by that clan and Israel is the only country that benefited from it.

    Replies: @Beckow
  278. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikhail

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937

    Is this fake news?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dacian Julien Soros

    Of course it’s real. I don’t know a lot of Russian, but Sushko seems a Slavic name. Also, the last tweet of the Russian leaker was “Russian ship, go to hell”.

  279. @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN
    Which wasn't successful, the US didn't get a UN mandate for war against Iraq. The claims about WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn't really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military means.
    You're probably too young to remember it (and in any case you didn't live in a Western country then), but the war was really hugely damaging to America's image, and I'm not sure it has ever totally recovered.
    Of course it could be argued that the damage to Russia's reputation from the Ukraine invasion is even worse, for various reasons (e.g. I can't say I like Zelensky all that much, but he's a democratically elected politician, not an odious tyrant like Saddam and his psycho sons were)...but you're really going too far when you're trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft to be emulated.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft

    Where have I said 2003 is the “model of sophisticated statecraft”? This seems to be your subjective projection to my comments, of something I have not written.

    I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like “attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003” vs “no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022”.

    If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

    I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

    WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military

    Of course, but I’m talking with Barbarossa about “creating of pretext” vs “not creating of pretext, then surprise attack”.

    I’m not talking about “having pretext” vs “not having pretext”. This is about “creating pretext”.

    It’s not “just war” vs “unjust war”. “Just war” would require “having pretext”, not “creating pretext”.

    My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is “just war” according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a “unjust war with manufactured pretext”.

    But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).
    Can't agree with you there. Russian propaganda is appallingly bad, but imo the main difference between Iraq 2003 and Ukraine 2022 is just the respective status of the US and Russia in the international system. But I don't feel strongly about the issue, sorry if I came across as trying to lecture you.
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    https://twitter.com/ASB_Breaking/status/1500917237611388936?s=20&t=S7KAAV_bW71xdw-m0fJbSg

    Replies: @songbird
    , @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext
    No. If you need to manufacture a pretext, you just shouldn't go to war because you don't have a defensible case and that is what people around the world are going to judge you for sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, Russia could have presented a rather reasonable case for some sort of military action against Ukraine: the Ukrainians have killed thousands of Russophone civilians in Donbas, have failed to fulfill the Minsk agreement for years, are mistreating their Russophone population, their plans to join NATO pose a grave danger to Russia's security,...

    If they had managed to effectively convey all these arguments to the Western audience over the past years, they would now have much more support (although I would personally still be opposed to the kind of war they have chosen) but instead Russia used its most influential media in the West (such as RT) to troll with BLM and LGBTQ stuff, obfuscate with unbelievable stories about MH-17 or the Skripal clown show and when the time finally came to take action lie idiotically about Ukraine being the one attacking Russian territory, making thus sure that nobody is going to believe anything else they say.

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it's not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @mal, @Thulean Friend
  280. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft
    Where have I said 2003 is the "model of sophisticated statecraft"? This seems to be your subjective projection to my comments, of something I have not written.

    I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like "attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003" vs "no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022".

    If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

    I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

    WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military
    Of course, but I'm talking with Barbarossa about "creating of pretext" vs "not creating of pretext, then surprise attack".

    I'm not talking about "having pretext" vs "not having pretext". This is about "creating pretext".

    It's not "just war" vs "unjust war". "Just war" would require "having pretext", not "creating pretext".

    My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is "just war" according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a "unjust war with manufactured pretext".

    But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill, @Mikel

    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    Can’t agree with you there. Russian propaganda is appallingly bad, but imo the main difference between Iraq 2003 and Ukraine 2022 is just the respective status of the US and Russia in the international system. But I don’t feel strongly about the issue, sorry if I came across as trying to lecture you.

  281. @Barbarossa
    @sudden death

    Your point is a good one, but I would say that we are not nearly done yet. It's just starting as far as I can tell.

    Many other economic factors are much more vulnerable than in 2008 which will make the pain much further reaching, in my opinion.

    I know that in the US inflation is a huge factor and is definitely much higher than official numbers indicate. Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder. Add on top of that the burst of the housing bubble as interest rates creep up and material prices scare many out of the building markets. So many Americans are on the margins of getting by and so leveraged to the hilt, that $6 a gallon gas coupled with other utility and food price increases will create a catastrophe for many.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder.

    Small correction, those are not separate phenomena. Surging materials prices are represented in the inflation figure.

    Also, I don’t see how you could know inflation is “definitely much higher” unless you replicated the work of the authorities, surveying countless prices of goods around the country. Obviously no one man is in a position to do that.

    At most you can you say you strongly suspect that inflation is higher, or that your “personal inflation” – the sorts of things you, personally, are apt to purchase – is definitely higher.

    And to be sure, I’m not claiming that inflation is definitely not higher than stated. I have no way of knowing that either. Governments obviously have an incentive to downplay inflation, but working on the assumption that it’s downplayed in a consistent way, the official number can still be a useful measure.

    •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @silviosilver

    Your correction is fair enough. Thanks.

    I don't know that inflation is higher than the official numbers but my experience being in construction is showing that materials are up far more than that across the board. Many materials are double what they were two years ago and still rising. The slated hikes for this year don't even account for current surging energy prices, so many will go up even more than expected now.

    My buying covers a fairly large swath and coupled with what I see in my personal spending it looks quite grim. I can't think of much that has gone up less than 25% over pre-pandemic prices and many things have gone up 100% or more. I'm not sure what sectors of the economy are seeing such low gains as to balance the overall inflation picture to match the official numbers.

    I also would strongly suspect inflation numbers to be massaged down because of how the debt is handled in a similar way.

    Replies: @KP
  282. Jumps and falls of oil prices are bigger ever. Now WTI at US\$120 and Brent over US\$123. It seems that Sleepy Joe’s errors of calculus are colossal.

  283. @Thulean Friend
    https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500826950373462021

    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine's entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.

    What we need is realpolitik - which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Wielgus, @A123, @Blinky Bill

    Manoids take the L.

    [MORE]

  284. @AaronB
    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Probably the people coming off the silliest in this thing are the"rationalists".

    Ron Unz insisted that Putin would absolutely never invade, because Unz absolutely correctly perceived that it made zero rational and practical sense for him to do so. The silly NATO stuff was obviously not sufficient pretext from a national interest perspective, so Ron knew Putin would not invade.

    After all, according to Ron Russia and China are "rational" - because technocratic, totalitarian - whereas only the US is "irrational" and ideological (democratic, chaotic, etc).

    Now, of course, Ron is insisting that Putin had absolutely no choice but to invade because of NATO in Ukraine etc etc etc. It was merely the totally rational thing to do, don't you see.

    And so the rationalist hamster spins it's wheel to maintain the tottering intellectual facade that "reason" rules on human affairs.

    And yet, had Ron merely consulted his own irrational "thumotic" tendencies - his "thumotic" hatred of Jews - he would have understood a man like Putin well.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and "thumotic" reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class - Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    The old, classical, thumotic human motives for war - still with us after the liberals assured us we are in a new age of rationality, represented by technocratic efficiency etc. Yet utterly incapable of being comprehended by the rationalists, as usual.

    Karlin, having moved out of the West and back to Mother Russia, had reconnected to his thumotic side and rediscovered emotions and sides of his personality that the West does not recognize or allow to emerge.

    That is why Karlins persona is so much more "strange" and "ugly" and "aggressive" this time around - it is the final unravelling of the residues of a liberal persona and a return to an archaic, thumotic mode that seems so shocking to our late liberal sensibilities.

    (well, not mine, I viscerally understand this kind of thing very well, although it is the work of spirituality to overcome it).

    Worth noting that Karlins transition is not complete, as indicated in his Hitler-like "conditional" support for Mother Russia that hinges on its success - not the true thumotic devotion one might find in ancient Rome, Greece, Israel, etc, and that alone truly leads to "greatness" (whether greatness is desirable is another question).

    As partial children of modernity, figures like Hitler or Karlin cannot truly return to the thumotic archaic mode that has been the engine of greatness in history - worship of soulless "efficiency" still clings to them - and they remain doomed to failure.

    Likewise, China's desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it's well supplied modern weaponry and full American support - but thumotic considerations are not rational.

    For sure, when that times comes the silly rationalists will insist that China cannot possible start a war because it makes no rational sense, and when it happens, they will insist it was the only truly rational thing to do - so remaining silly to the end and never learning anything, trapped in their narrow world view.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver, @Justvisiting, @Coconuts

    Likewise, China’s desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    I actually agree with most of what you said in this post (a true rarity!), but this statement is incorrect.

    Even if it ultimately is “thumotic,” there is nonetheless a rational basis for it. The rational basis for it is completely out of proportion to the inflated rhetoric that surrounds the issue – “it is unbearable that a great nation like ours be hemmed in just off our own coast!” – but China’s strategic position would indeed be somewhat enhanced by the absorption of Taiwan.

    Unless one thinks in terms of longer term security interests, this strategic enhancement can be very obscure. Like, so China takes Taiwan, big deal, how is that really going to change anything? In the short term, it wouldn’t. The typical nationalistic Chinaman might feel like he is flexing his “greatness,” but certainly nothing in his own life would change even if China took ten Taiwans. But in the longer term, holding Taiwan would be strategically advantageous in a showdown in east Asia.

    That’s the damned thing about international relations. Virtually no country feels permanently content to expand its “greatness” solely within its own borders. The temptation to encroach upon territory held by others is everpresent, awaiting only the opportunity to pursue it. The liberal order is the closest humans have ever come to overcoming this tendency, although that carries deficiencies of its own – namely, the temptation to remake the world in the liberal image.

    •�Replies: @AaronB
    @silviosilver

    Largely agree.

    Sure, there is a slender thread on which China can hang an argument for why acquiring Taiwan would be advantageous that isn't totally absurd, but nothing that really offsets the risk and destruction of a war. The primary reason would be thumotic.

    And yes, the logic of national "security" dictates, unfortunately, a never ending and insatiable effort to grow as powerful as possible at the expense of everyone else, but this is really only the illusion of security and always ends in self-defeating collapse. It is the logic of totalitarianism, the security state, the Covid agenda of total control.

    True international security can only be secured on the basis of some kind of spiritual vision - a sense of shared inter-connection.

    As you note, liberalism has come closest to this historically, but was in many ways even at its best corrupt and unsatisfying - entirely materialistic in the end, unfairly competitive beneath the veneer of all boats upflited, and increasingly cynical towards the end, etc.

    But today, even this system has become thoroughly corrupted in the West and turned into a malign force, and Russia and China offer us nothing but naked self-interest and power politics in the old style that has traditionally led to incessant warfare.

    The globe stands in urgent need of something new - a new vision capable of revitalizing it's sense of what life is for. The story it is running now is exhausted.

    Or perhaps, the rediscovery of more ancient stories still.

    Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @silviosilver

    The scenario I have seen is Taiwan is attacked to the extent:

    it's military capability is destroyed
    it's military production--especially bio-weapons facilities (I didn't even know they had these) is destroyed
    it's political leadership is decimated or 2X decimated (I don't know the word for chopped down by 20%)
    it's allies are demonstrated utterly impotent

    Then the commies go back to the mainland, tell them to stew, and invite them to union negotiations.
  285. @A123
    @Thulean Friend


    Germany also publicly opposed Ukraine’s entrance into the EU today. Berlin is the last capital in Europe where there is any geopolitical sanity.
    The German Traffic Light coalition includes the Green Party. There is little to no chance that geopolitically insane Greens will allow NS2 to start. Expect wide gaps between what Scholz says versus actual coalition approved policy.

    What we need is realpolitik – which the US tries its best to sabotage at every turn.
    MAGA is the U.S. version of realpolitik. WEF Elites located in Davos undermined U.S. democracy and installed a mentally ill coup leader to gain European "liberal authoritarianism".

    At some point, Europeans will have to stop blaming the fake government that they foisted on Americans. The problem with Europe is Europe. The Fascist Stormtroopers of Antifa existed in Europe many years before the WEF exported them to the U.S.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Aedib

    Just wait for the next CDU period. May be we will not have to wait so much.

  286. @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft
    Where have I said 2003 is the "model of sophisticated statecraft"? This seems to be your subjective projection to my comments, of something I have not written.

    I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like "attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003" vs "no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022".

    If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

    I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

    WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military
    Of course, but I'm talking with Barbarossa about "creating of pretext" vs "not creating of pretext, then surprise attack".

    I'm not talking about "having pretext" vs "not having pretext". This is about "creating pretext".

    It's not "just war" vs "unjust war". "Just war" would require "having pretext", not "creating pretext".

    My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is "just war" according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a "unjust war with manufactured pretext".

    But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill, @Mikel
    •�Replies: @songbird
    @Blinky Bill

    Fortunately, for Russians, counterfeits will not be effected.
  287. @silviosilver
    @Barbarossa


    Inflation coupled with surging raw materials prices are going to be murder.
    Small correction, those are not separate phenomena. Surging materials prices are represented in the inflation figure.

    Also, I don't see how you could know inflation is "definitely much higher" unless you replicated the work of the authorities, surveying countless prices of goods around the country. Obviously no one man is in a position to do that.

    At most you can you say you strongly suspect that inflation is higher, or that your "personal inflation" - the sorts of things you, personally, are apt to purchase - is definitely higher.

    And to be sure, I'm not claiming that inflation is definitely not higher than stated. I have no way of knowing that either. Governments obviously have an incentive to downplay inflation, but working on the assumption that it's downplayed in a consistent way, the official number can still be a useful measure.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Your correction is fair enough. Thanks.

    I don’t know that inflation is higher than the official numbers but my experience being in construction is showing that materials are up far more than that across the board. Many materials are double what they were two years ago and still rising. The slated hikes for this year don’t even account for current surging energy prices, so many will go up even more than expected now.

    My buying covers a fairly large swath and coupled with what I see in my personal spending it looks quite grim. I can’t think of much that has gone up less than 25% over pre-pandemic prices and many things have gone up 100% or more. I’m not sure what sectors of the economy are seeing such low gains as to balance the overall inflation picture to match the official numbers.

    I also would strongly suspect inflation numbers to be massaged down because of how the debt is handled in a similar way.

    •�Replies: @KP
    @Barbarossa

    Of course they are massaged downwards! The Govt's incentive to inflate their currency is to make paying debt easier and keeping the peasants quiet with wage increases, while bracket creep pushes wage & salary earners into ever higher tax brackets.

    The tool they use to hide it is the way they constantly re-design what they count to measure inflation.

    Does a washing machine price increase count when you buy food every week but a washing machine once in 10years?

    Why does having 'lane-change warnings' in you car offset a price increase because you have bought 'more' with that increase?

    There is no incentive for deflation, they hate it, yet over hundreds of years previously the price of say, bread, did not increase. There is every reason for deflation as technology makes products more cheaply, the only things that never go down are Govt taxes and the price of their services.

    It is a lot clearer when you get old.
  288. @Beckow
    @Dmitry


    Russia just needs more convincing BS

    ...you need to remove “just” from this sentence.
    Don't we need less BS? And not Russia moving into the BS world?

    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to "BS" on the level that West does. They wouldn't be allowed. That is a given.

    BS is basically a massive society-wide lying. Mostly to its own population who then become more stupid and dysfunctional. Some in the West like it and giggle that it 'works'. But it is not working now - Washington is doing PR instead of achieving its objectives. They hope that others - Ukrainians - will do it for them. They won't.

    Ukraine will not be in NATO, it will be demilitarized. That was the number one goal to surround Russia. The years-old expensive strategy has spectacularly failed. The screaming and crying are there to cover up this failure. When it is over and we are still around, this reality will be quietly accepted. And everybody in the West will suddenly pretend that 'there was no plan for NATO in Ukraine, so it is no loss'. Right.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to “BS” on the level that West does. They wouldn’t be allowed. That is a given.

    I am not at all sure that he knows that. He is enough of a libtard faggot that it’s perfectly possible this obvious-to-all reality completely eludes him.

    Or perhaps it’s this wannabe Jew’s inner Israel-firster coming out, since the Iraq war was conceived by that clan and Israel is the only country that benefited from it.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @silviosilver

    Possibly he doesn't know. The problem with people who don't know the basic setup of the world is that discussions become meaningless. The frames of reference don't overlap enough. So there is a war to cut through the crap.

    Wars are horrible, but they create clarity. This one will too. The people who forgot who won WWII are screeching like flat tires because they fear any reminder of WWII reality more than anything else. It was fun for them to pretend, lie, mythologize. Now they have to put up, and as in WWII they are going to come up short. What then? Another glorious movie?
  289. @silviosilver
    @AaronB


    Likewise, China’s desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.
    I actually agree with most of what you said in this post (a true rarity!), but this statement is incorrect.

    Even if it ultimately is "thumotic," there is nonetheless a rational basis for it. The rational basis for it is completely out of proportion to the inflated rhetoric that surrounds the issue - "it is unbearable that a great nation like ours be hemmed in just off our own coast!" - but China's strategic position would indeed be somewhat enhanced by the absorption of Taiwan.

    Unless one thinks in terms of longer term security interests, this strategic enhancement can be very obscure. Like, so China takes Taiwan, big deal, how is that really going to change anything? In the short term, it wouldn't. The typical nationalistic Chinaman might feel like he is flexing his "greatness," but certainly nothing in his own life would change even if China took ten Taiwans. But in the longer term, holding Taiwan would be strategically advantageous in a showdown in east Asia.

    That's the damned thing about international relations. Virtually no country feels permanently content to expand its "greatness" solely within its own borders. The temptation to encroach upon territory held by others is everpresent, awaiting only the opportunity to pursue it. The liberal order is the closest humans have ever come to overcoming this tendency, although that carries deficiencies of its own - namely, the temptation to remake the world in the liberal image.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Largely agree.

    Sure, there is a slender thread on which China can hang an argument for why acquiring Taiwan would be advantageous that isn’t totally absurd, but nothing that really offsets the risk and destruction of a war. The primary reason would be thumotic.

    And yes, the logic of national “security” dictates, unfortunately, a never ending and insatiable effort to grow as powerful as possible at the expense of everyone else, but this is really only the illusion of security and always ends in self-defeating collapse. It is the logic of totalitarianism, the security state, the Covid agenda of total control.

    True international security can only be secured on the basis of some kind of spiritual vision – a sense of shared inter-connection.

    As you note, liberalism has come closest to this historically, but was in many ways even at its best corrupt and unsatisfying – entirely materialistic in the end, unfairly competitive beneath the veneer of all boats upflited, and increasingly cynical towards the end, etc.

    But today, even this system has become thoroughly corrupted in the West and turned into a malign force, and Russia and China offer us nothing but naked self-interest and power politics in the old style that has traditionally led to incessant warfare.

    The globe stands in urgent need of something new – a new vision capable of revitalizing it’s sense of what life is for. The story it is running now is exhausted.

    Or perhaps, the rediscovery of more ancient stories still.

    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @AaronB


    The globe stands in urgent need of something new – a new vision capable of revitalizing it’s sense of what life is for. The story it is running now is exhausted.
    Who knows? Perhaps you and I and other jaded westerners feel that way - albeit for rather different reasons of our own - but it's not really clear to me that "the world" does. In fact, it seems to me that most of the world is quite hungry to raise its material standard of living.

    And why not? It may not be "everything," but at least it's real; you can touch it and feel it and know that it's there, unlike spiritual goods that you have to convince yourself - often in the face of tremendous evidence to the contrary - that you actually possess.

    I bet if the Puritan community could have been convinced that no one need starve, even if they didn't work, and that techniques could be developed and (all but) freely distributed which guaranteed the alleviation of symptoms of sickness, half of them would have gladly wiped their asses with scripture if those were the terms of the deal for immediate access to those benefits.
  290. @AaronB
    @Dmitry

    I admit I don't follow military developments very much, but I was under the impression that Russian military technology and capability in general was superior to that of China.

    I thought that was one of Russia's main strengths, at least reading all the Unz commenters (which obviously I should not be relying on for serious information lol).

    Either way, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China, obviously.

    That doesn't mean they won't attempt it - thumotic considerations, the primary motivation for China, are irrational, and authoritarian dictatorships have famously corrupted information streams and decision making processes.

    Widespread corruption and the softness that comes from prosperity makes today's generation of Chinese very different than the one willing to make such supreme sacrifices and put up with such hardship during WW2 - and Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it's equipment, and the morale of it's troops, are hard to assess, but likely as with Russia, not close to the propoganda.

    The interesting thing about the "rise" of China and Russia is that they do not attempt to frame their actions in terms of a universal moral framework, or develop a global system for the benefit of all.

    It's just naked self-interest and dreams of zero-sum personal glory and superiority without any larger vision or unifying framework. It's actually remarkably small minded and archaic.

    The American led glob system was and is obviously deeply corrupt and unfair, and as is known I am no fan of capitalism - but there was a genuine attempt to develop a universal moral vision and a system of mutual inter-benefit, however wrongheaded.

    Today, of course, the West is dying and it's spiritual vision has become corrupted to the point of being a malign force in the world.

    But what's remarkable is how there is nothing to supplant it.

    If China really wanted to once again be the "Middle Kingdom" and supplant the West, it would draw on it's tradition to develop a new and revitalized vision of a universal moral order and the inter-benefit of all states, which is actually something deeply rooted in traditional Chinese morality.

    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest - we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power. Granted, this can provide a certain level of motivation for a while, but this is a fundamentally petty vision - and utterly reactive - and one unworthy of any great people if it aspires to any leadership role.

    How different the vision America and the West had at least for a while.

    America and the West are badly in need of renewal and revitalization on a completely different basis - yes, a spiritual basis.

    But so is the entire world, and so are we all.

    Perhaps, first, the corrupted spiritual vision of the West has first to collapse into a morass of petty squabbling self interested states before the world can regenerate on a healthy spiritual basis.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird

    Russian military technology and capability in general was superior

    At the end of 1991, the new Russian Federation has inherited most of the military capacity of the USSR. This was the most powerful land army of the second half of the 20th century. The Soviet army was the priority of a superpower.

    Today, the armed forces of the Russian Federation, still has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, the largest number of tanks and armored vehicles, etc.

    But a question is, what extent has military been asset-stripped, by now? These are unknown questions, that probably Shoigu himself cannot even say.

    I know someone (I would not say friend), whose father was somekind of important officer, now international super wealthy people. He himself has been in the army for a year or something – of Cyprus. Where is their money from? Are they just “talented businessmen”?

    Modern equipment including fighter-bombers, are using consumer electronics. Officers are communicating with Baofeng radio, you can buy from Aliexpress. So, there are probably some hints of asset-stripping.

    However, even military officers, probably do not know the answer for a question of how much there has been asset-stripping in the military.

    Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it’s equipment,

    I think we can assume that Chinese military equipment would be less asset-stripped. And they have a larger budget.

    But there areas, like development of fighter-jet engines, where they seemed to fail for years, and need to import Russian engines.

    Probably, China is in some transition stage there.

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China,

    More than a million soldiers (to have 3-1 attacker to defender ratio) would have been transported in boats across the sea, where boats would be destroyed, with perhaps thousands of people killed in each one. They would be going to fortified beaches and facing a land-based artillery.

    So, Taiwan, would have more local concentration of fire, logistics and ammunition, than China.

    All logistics for more than million soldiers, would have to be transport by sea, in battle zone and somehow transported from the beaches. It would require many more ships, than China has access for.

    Landing beaches in Taiwan surrounded by mountains, where Taiwan’s army would be fortified.

    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    f China really wanted to once again be the “Middle Kingdom”

    I haven’t been in China, but my intuitive concept is that their culture prioritizes currently trading and economic development.

    •�Replies: @Adept
    @Dmitry


    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    I cannot believe that the Chinese would embark on a strategy so foolish and so wasteful.

    Their last great military campaign was a largely pointless punitive expedition into Vietnam in 1979. They lost roughly 10,000 men over three weeks, but they could sustain such losses with ease. For back then Chinese TFR was nearly 3.0, and the men who were sent to fight were born in an era when TFR was nearly 6.0.

    Today, Chinese TFR has been under replacement for more than 30 years. Every soldier dead on the field is an entire family line extinguished. The Chinese are very sensitive to this, however jingoistic they may otherwise seem.

    There are ways to take Taiwan without firing a single shot, e.g., China could engineer a loyalist coup. A carefully planned coup -- engineered over a couple of decades and with effectively limitless money (>$500B) to influence people and media interests -- could very well succeed, and would probably cost much less than an invasion. It would require some skullduggery and subtlety, but the Chinese should be capable of this. They are not Ugandans, after all.

    A less subtle alternative might be a blockade. Taiwan is hugely reliant on outside food imports -- far more reliant than China. (Taiwan is at roughly 20-30% food self-sufficiency compared to ~80-90% for China.) Taiwan doesn't have the offensive sea/air capabilities they'd need to break a blockade. They could be beaten by naval siege.

    Perhaps the least subtle alternative would be a blockade combined with "shock and awe" bombardment from the sea and the air. This would be a morally difficult option, to be sure, but, from a Chinese perspective, it would be less unfortunate than a million dead Army lads floating in the harbor and rotting in the streets.

    The only way for China to "lose" a blockade would be (a) IF the US Navy is prepared to risk WWIII over it, and (b) IF the US Navy is capable of defeating the Chinese in the pacific. Both questions are too uncertain to be answered at this time, but I believe that trends favor China, and perhaps quite heavily.

    Replies: @silviosilver
  291. @silviosilver
    @AaronB


    Likewise, China’s desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.
    I actually agree with most of what you said in this post (a true rarity!), but this statement is incorrect.

    Even if it ultimately is "thumotic," there is nonetheless a rational basis for it. The rational basis for it is completely out of proportion to the inflated rhetoric that surrounds the issue - "it is unbearable that a great nation like ours be hemmed in just off our own coast!" - but China's strategic position would indeed be somewhat enhanced by the absorption of Taiwan.

    Unless one thinks in terms of longer term security interests, this strategic enhancement can be very obscure. Like, so China takes Taiwan, big deal, how is that really going to change anything? In the short term, it wouldn't. The typical nationalistic Chinaman might feel like he is flexing his "greatness," but certainly nothing in his own life would change even if China took ten Taiwans. But in the longer term, holding Taiwan would be strategically advantageous in a showdown in east Asia.

    That's the damned thing about international relations. Virtually no country feels permanently content to expand its "greatness" solely within its own borders. The temptation to encroach upon territory held by others is everpresent, awaiting only the opportunity to pursue it. The liberal order is the closest humans have ever come to overcoming this tendency, although that carries deficiencies of its own - namely, the temptation to remake the world in the liberal image.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Emil Nikola Richard

    The scenario I have seen is Taiwan is attacked to the extent:

    it’s military capability is destroyed
    it’s military production–especially bio-weapons facilities (I didn’t even know they had these) is destroyed
    it’s political leadership is decimated or 2X decimated (I don’t know the word for chopped down by 20%)
    it’s allies are demonstrated utterly impotent

    Then the commies go back to the mainland, tell them to stew, and invite them to union negotiations.

  292. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @utu

    The only unity in the west is the top .0001%.

    The rest of us are split 50-50.

    Replies: @utu

    On Putin and Russia the split is 80-20. The 20% are mostly the rightoids that you can encounter at pro Putin propaganda sites like The Unz Review. Being pro Putin is deplorable pretty much everywhere in the West.

    •�Troll: Goddard
    •�Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    Fortunately, those in the West who oppose Putin (because the media told them to) are also those who got the #ClotShot, so their life-expectancy has been dramatically reduced.

    Pretty soon the ratio will be the other way around.

    I didn't get the #ClotShot so I expect to outlive the sheeple!

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @utu

    That massive opposition to Putin is going to result in no military action whatsoever. What do you think the reason for that is? Why do you think the first sentence on Biden's teleprompter the other night was "no American troops will be going"?

    You watch too much television.
  293. @utu
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    On Putin and Russia the split is 80-20. The 20% are mostly the rightoids that you can encounter at pro Putin propaganda sites like The Unz Review. Being pro Putin is deplorable pretty much everywhere in the West.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Fortunately, those in the West who oppose Putin (because the media told them to) are also those who got the #ClotShot, so their life-expectancy has been dramatically reduced.

    Pretty soon the ratio will be the other way around.

    I didn’t get the #ClotShot so I expect to outlive the sheeple!

    •�Replies: @German_reader
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Sounds like a troll comment, designed with the intention to trigger a heart attack in utu.
    , @utu
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Putin fanboys and idiot anti-vaxxers happily exchange bodily fluids under auspices of Ron Unz.
  294. @AaronB
    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Probably the people coming off the silliest in this thing are the"rationalists".

    Ron Unz insisted that Putin would absolutely never invade, because Unz absolutely correctly perceived that it made zero rational and practical sense for him to do so. The silly NATO stuff was obviously not sufficient pretext from a national interest perspective, so Ron knew Putin would not invade.

    After all, according to Ron Russia and China are "rational" - because technocratic, totalitarian - whereas only the US is "irrational" and ideological (democratic, chaotic, etc).

    Now, of course, Ron is insisting that Putin had absolutely no choice but to invade because of NATO in Ukraine etc etc etc. It was merely the totally rational thing to do, don't you see.

    And so the rationalist hamster spins it's wheel to maintain the tottering intellectual facade that "reason" rules on human affairs.

    And yet, had Ron merely consulted his own irrational "thumotic" tendencies - his "thumotic" hatred of Jews - he would have understood a man like Putin well.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and "thumotic" reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class - Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    The old, classical, thumotic human motives for war - still with us after the liberals assured us we are in a new age of rationality, represented by technocratic efficiency etc. Yet utterly incapable of being comprehended by the rationalists, as usual.

    Karlin, having moved out of the West and back to Mother Russia, had reconnected to his thumotic side and rediscovered emotions and sides of his personality that the West does not recognize or allow to emerge.

    That is why Karlins persona is so much more "strange" and "ugly" and "aggressive" this time around - it is the final unravelling of the residues of a liberal persona and a return to an archaic, thumotic mode that seems so shocking to our late liberal sensibilities.

    (well, not mine, I viscerally understand this kind of thing very well, although it is the work of spirituality to overcome it).

    Worth noting that Karlins transition is not complete, as indicated in his Hitler-like "conditional" support for Mother Russia that hinges on its success - not the true thumotic devotion one might find in ancient Rome, Greece, Israel, etc, and that alone truly leads to "greatness" (whether greatness is desirable is another question).

    As partial children of modernity, figures like Hitler or Karlin cannot truly return to the thumotic archaic mode that has been the engine of greatness in history - worship of soulless "efficiency" still clings to them - and they remain doomed to failure.

    Likewise, China's desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it's well supplied modern weaponry and full American support - but thumotic considerations are not rational.

    For sure, when that times comes the silly rationalists will insist that China cannot possible start a war because it makes no rational sense, and when it happens, they will insist it was the only truly rational thing to do - so remaining silly to the end and never learning anything, trapped in their narrow world view.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver, @Justvisiting, @Coconuts

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it’s well supplied modern weaponry and full American support

    I have read Sun Tzu many times, and I am convinced China will attack Taiwan soon.

    If you ignore Western propaganda, what you get is that China believes it has the technology to successfully destroy US Navy ships in the region, which makes the US irrelevant. That advantage is not permanent, it is temporary–so that is a “now or never” scenario.

    They either attack when the enemy is weak, or perhaps give up attacking Taiwan for decades or longer.

  295. @utu
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    On Putin and Russia the split is 80-20. The 20% are mostly the rightoids that you can encounter at pro Putin propaganda sites like The Unz Review. Being pro Putin is deplorable pretty much everywhere in the West.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Emil Nikola Richard

    That massive opposition to Putin is going to result in no military action whatsoever. What do you think the reason for that is? Why do you think the first sentence on Biden’s teleprompter the other night was “no American troops will be going”?

    You watch too much television.

  296. German_reader says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    Fortunately, those in the West who oppose Putin (because the media told them to) are also those who got the #ClotShot, so their life-expectancy has been dramatically reduced.

    Pretty soon the ratio will be the other way around.

    I didn't get the #ClotShot so I expect to outlive the sheeple!

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu

    Sounds like a troll comment, designed with the intention to trigger a heart attack in utu.

    •�LOL: Yevardian
  297. •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Russian Antifa

    Powerful Take...
    All these unknown commenters trash talking Karlin are actually AK as he trolls his despised vestigial commentariat by pretending to troll himself.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Guest99
    @Russian Antifa

    The Antifa troll poster & impersonations are Mikemikev / Michael Coombs.

    Follow the links-

    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/The_Bald_Antifa_photo_thief_strikes_again!
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/User:Anatoly_Karlin
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/User:Antifa_basement_dweller
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/User:Anatoly_Karlin_sues_ED
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/index.php?title=Anatoly_Karlin&action=history

    He has done this for hundreds of hours and has been under police investigation for harassment and online identity theft.

    More victims include other 'HBD' people (Dutton, Kirkegaard etc):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Sockpuppet_investigations/Mikemikev/Archive#15_September_2021
    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Talk:Edward_Dutton#Question

    Literally an entire page that documents this:
    https://www.mylittletrollpedia.com/wiki/index.php?title=Michael_Coombs/RationalWiki

    Antifa crap isn't ODSs style.
  298. @silviosilver
    @Beckow


    You are also being deceptive: you know well that neither Russia nor China would be able to “BS” on the level that West does. They wouldn’t be allowed. That is a given.
    I am not at all sure that he knows that. He is enough of a libtard faggot that it's perfectly possible this obvious-to-all reality completely eludes him.

    Or perhaps it's this wannabe Jew's inner Israel-firster coming out, since the Iraq war was conceived by that clan and Israel is the only country that benefited from it.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Possibly he doesn’t know. The problem with people who don’t know the basic setup of the world is that discussions become meaningless. The frames of reference don’t overlap enough. So there is a war to cut through the crap.

    Wars are horrible, but they create clarity. This one will too. The people who forgot who won WWII are screeching like flat tires because they fear any reminder of WWII reality more than anything else. It was fun for them to pretend, lie, mythologize. Now they have to put up, and as in WWII they are going to come up short. What then? Another glorious movie?

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
  299. @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The sad thing is that Russia's future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine. If it manages to take over some of Ukraine's cities, think of all of the time and resources it will consume in trying to subdue the insurgent countryside (that will spill over into the cities as well). Imagine the very worst IRA scenarios imaginable, that is what probably awaits Russia. Drat! There goes your comfy position as a director of some transhumanist research facility.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @yakushimaru

    How did Stalin manage a border?

    Why is it must be like Afghanistan or Iraq? Why can’t it be like East Europe in Soviet time? Or something else?

    Did a bleeding Iraq destablise its neighbors? Will a bloody messy Ukraine hurt Poland?

  300. @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Whether a casus belli like 2003 is believed or not (many people probably do not believe the casus belli in 1999), there is presentation of casus belli in 2003 in the UN, attempt to present objectivity (even if nobody believes it), engagement of international community (even if most of the international community disagrees), description of plans for war, and then declaration of war.

    It's very different to saying you would not attack to everyone, and then attacking, with a speech about denazification, and no declaration of war.

    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it's not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.

    Although, China can perhaps argue for "territorial integrity" principle, for Taiwan invasion, as it seems to be successful for Azerbaijan. This "territorial integrity" principle allows you to argue that you are not just doing Mongol/Viking style of war of conquest, but trying to "support international law" and "objective principles". There might be the Mongol/Viking motives in such war, but for any international consensus would need to present it as objective bureaucracy.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Coconuts

    This shows the importance of manufacture and presentation of a casus belli proportional to an action, even if it’s not a very realistic casus belli. You still need some kind of narrative to present to the international community and to show an attempt to be objective, or not just saying you are following self-interest or war of conquest.

    From what I have been able to pick up about the way the Ukraine operation is understood by Putin and the army command, it is supposed to be about removing from power some cabal of extremist Fascist nationalists, foreign influenced factionalists etc. who they believe have usurped political power and fatally divided the Russian peoples by their schemes (i.e. it is a kind of semi-civil war situation). From this point of view the cause of the intervention would have to be different to a casus belli between two states which recognised each other’s full sovereignty and independence.

    Clearly this point of view won’t be recognised by many countries, or they might not even be aware of this as a possible motivation for what is going on.

  301. @Peripatetic Commenter
    @utu

    Fortunately, those in the West who oppose Putin (because the media told them to) are also those who got the #ClotShot, so their life-expectancy has been dramatically reduced.

    Pretty soon the ratio will be the other way around.

    I didn't get the #ClotShot so I expect to outlive the sheeple!

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu

    Putin fanboys and idiot anti-vaxxers happily exchange bodily fluids under auspices of Ron Unz.

  302. Izum taken by the Russians (there is still a hopeless Ukrainian resistance in the south of the town). They are joining Lugansk forces which have “fire control” over the route from Izum to Gorlovka. So, another kettle was closed. The big one behind the Ukrainian forces attacking Donetsk is not closed yet but is taking shape.

    •�Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Aedib

    Kettles only work if you have overwheming numbers/fire power. OTher wise they stretch you forces thin.
  303. A123 says: •�Website
    @Boethiuss
    @A123


    Everyone rational, paying attention to corruption in the 2020 elections accepts that Not-The-President Biden did not win. For example: (1)
    This is stupid. As you're probably aware, in the aftermath of the 2020 election President Trump sued everybody and their brother in order reverse the results of the election in a few states so that he, Trump would win. And when Mr. Trump got his day in court, he never attempted to submit any evidence in support of his allegations. Ie, it's not just that Trump lost in court (though he did), he never attempted to argue otherwise in court.

    Even worse, beyond being stupid this is tangential. It's got nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine or any other part of your comments.

    The upshot being that your comments are unnecessary specimens of schizophrenia. Ie, this part is obviously rhetorical bullshit but this other part might actually be relevant. The readers aren't going to sort that kind of thing out. If you have a legitimate point to make, state your case in complete sentences and leave the superfluous bullshit out.

    Replies: @A123

    Thank you for admitting that you are a Stupid BS Troll and/or share Drooling’ Joe’s staggeringly limited mental capacity.

    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden’s Impeachment trial(s).
    ___

    How are logic & facts tangential?

    As Not-The-President Biden is illegitimate, he does not represent America. Thus, when assigning blame one must use language that calls out the SJW/DNC and their WEF masters.
    ____

    When you are capable of admitting the TRUTH about the Blue Coup, feel free to do so.

    Until then your Dementia, Alzheimer’s, and uncivil Troll BS will prevent you from making meaningful contributions to the discussion. In fact, your substance free, mouth frothing, #NeverTrump outbursts strengthen my position. I appreciate your profoundly incompetent, feeble, and unconvincing opposition.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @A123


    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.
    No no no. Either you have misunderstood or ignored the import of my prior comment. The judiciary didn't "refuse to hear" the case or _cases_, they processed them like they would do for any other suit. There were briefs, there were hearings, I think in a couple of cases there might have even been trials.

    What there wasn't, was evidence, ie documents or testimony to establish as facts what they were arguing for in their briefs, on television, and in person in front of friendly audiences.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden’s Impeachment trial(s).
    If that does happen, and the Senate convicts then President Biden is no longer President. But of course, that hasn't happened, and there no imminent prospect of it happening soon. Btw, if there is an impeachment trial, CJ Roberts presides but he doesn't get a vote.

    Replies: @A123
  304. @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Ukraine is a disorganized, asset-stripped, third world country, with impossible to defend geography and no protection from the international community. Ukraine is impossible to defend flat land, with only some mud (in spring) and (in summer) deciduous forest to protect them, as well as the cities (invitation to urban war), and nationalist population. It appears like an unlocked house, otherwise.

    To compare with China's invasion of Taiwan, which is a very locked house?

    China still has some discipline of communism and will have a more organized and less asset-stripped military capacity than Russia. But Taiwan is an island, with a more advanced development per capita than China and years of preparation for defense.

    An attempt for an amphibious invasion of a fortified island, could likely become one of the most famous military disasters of the 21st century, where every soldier has to be transported by vulnerable ships, and then climb over fortified beaches.

    It's like someone has designed a perfect "Panda trap", which China needs to avoid falling to.

    Of course, China should need to deconstruct the "Panda trap", instead of standing their foot inside it (e.g. trying amphibious invasions of a fortified island). This is, they would better to construction some kind of internal coup inside Taiwan.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke

    It’s called submarines. Mke sure every airport is getting pounder with missiles 24/7. End of Taiwan.

  305. @Dmitry
    @AaronB


    Russian military technology and capability in general was superior
    At the end of 1991, the new Russian Federation has inherited most of the military capacity of the USSR. This was the most powerful land army of the second half of the 20th century. The Soviet army was the priority of a superpower.

    Today, the armed forces of the Russian Federation, still has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, the largest number of tanks and armored vehicles, etc.

    But a question is, what extent has military been asset-stripped, by now? These are unknown questions, that probably Shoigu himself cannot even say.

    I know someone (I would not say friend), whose father was somekind of important officer, now international super wealthy people. He himself has been in the army for a year or something - of Cyprus. Where is their money from? Are they just "talented businessmen"?

    Modern equipment including fighter-bombers, are using consumer electronics. Officers are communicating with Baofeng radio, you can buy from Aliexpress. So, there are probably some hints of asset-stripping.

    However, even military officers, probably do not know the answer for a question of how much there has been asset-stripping in the military.

    Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it’s equipment,

    I think we can assume that Chinese military equipment would be less asset-stripped. And they have a larger budget.

    But there areas, like development of fighter-jet engines, where they seemed to fail for years, and need to import Russian engines.

    Probably, China is in some transition stage there.

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China,
    More than a million soldiers (to have 3-1 attacker to defender ratio) would have been transported in boats across the sea, where boats would be destroyed, with perhaps thousands of people killed in each one. They would be going to fortified beaches and facing a land-based artillery.

    So, Taiwan, would have more local concentration of fire, logistics and ammunition, than China.

    All logistics for more than million soldiers, would have to be transport by sea, in battle zone and somehow transported from the beaches. It would require many more ships, than China has access for.

    Landing beaches in Taiwan surrounded by mountains, where Taiwan's army would be fortified.

    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    f China really wanted to once again be the “Middle Kingdom”
    I haven't been in China, but my intuitive concept is that their culture prioritizes currently trading and economic development.

    Replies: @Adept

    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    I cannot believe that the Chinese would embark on a strategy so foolish and so wasteful.

    Their last great military campaign was a largely pointless punitive expedition into Vietnam in 1979. They lost roughly 10,000 men over three weeks, but they could sustain such losses with ease. For back then Chinese TFR was nearly 3.0, and the men who were sent to fight were born in an era when TFR was nearly 6.0.

    Today, Chinese TFR has been under replacement for more than 30 years. Every soldier dead on the field is an entire family line extinguished. The Chinese are very sensitive to this, however jingoistic they may otherwise seem.

    There are ways to take Taiwan without firing a single shot, e.g., China could engineer a loyalist coup. A carefully planned coup — engineered over a couple of decades and with effectively limitless money (>\$500B) to influence people and media interests — could very well succeed, and would probably cost much less than an invasion. It would require some skullduggery and subtlety, but the Chinese should be capable of this. They are not Ugandans, after all.

    A less subtle alternative might be a blockade. Taiwan is hugely reliant on outside food imports — far more reliant than China. (Taiwan is at roughly 20-30% food self-sufficiency compared to ~80-90% for China.) Taiwan doesn’t have the offensive sea/air capabilities they’d need to break a blockade. They could be beaten by naval siege.

    Perhaps the least subtle alternative would be a blockade combined with “shock and awe” bombardment from the sea and the air. This would be a morally difficult option, to be sure, but, from a Chinese perspective, it would be less unfortunate than a million dead Army lads floating in the harbor and rotting in the streets.

    The only way for China to “lose” a blockade would be (a) IF the US Navy is prepared to risk WWIII over it, and (b) IF the US Navy is capable of defeating the Chinese in the pacific. Both questions are too uncertain to be answered at this time, but I believe that trends favor China, and perhaps quite heavily.

    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @Adept


    The only way for China to “lose” a blockade would be (a) IF the US Navy is prepared to risk WWIII over it, and (b) IF the US Navy is capable of defeating the Chinese in the pacific.
    The concept of "WWIII" is too poisoned by Hollywood post-apocalyptic imagery to be of much use in a serious discussion. So let's amend (a) to "if America is prepared to go to war with China over it."

    Shockingly, even neo-isolationist realists like the topical John Mearsheimer appear to believe that Taiwan is important enough to risk war over. I'd like to think it's merely a rhetorical sop to the interventionist-minded foreign policy establishment in order to help them to back off on present non-essentials like Russia - iow, hey if you still feel the yen to intervene, I know a better place to do it - but he is probably serious about it.

    (Other than that, I like his prescription of "offshore balancing".)
  306. @AaronB
    @silviosilver

    Largely agree.

    Sure, there is a slender thread on which China can hang an argument for why acquiring Taiwan would be advantageous that isn't totally absurd, but nothing that really offsets the risk and destruction of a war. The primary reason would be thumotic.

    And yes, the logic of national "security" dictates, unfortunately, a never ending and insatiable effort to grow as powerful as possible at the expense of everyone else, but this is really only the illusion of security and always ends in self-defeating collapse. It is the logic of totalitarianism, the security state, the Covid agenda of total control.

    True international security can only be secured on the basis of some kind of spiritual vision - a sense of shared inter-connection.

    As you note, liberalism has come closest to this historically, but was in many ways even at its best corrupt and unsatisfying - entirely materialistic in the end, unfairly competitive beneath the veneer of all boats upflited, and increasingly cynical towards the end, etc.

    But today, even this system has become thoroughly corrupted in the West and turned into a malign force, and Russia and China offer us nothing but naked self-interest and power politics in the old style that has traditionally led to incessant warfare.

    The globe stands in urgent need of something new - a new vision capable of revitalizing it's sense of what life is for. The story it is running now is exhausted.

    Or perhaps, the rediscovery of more ancient stories still.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    The globe stands in urgent need of something new – a new vision capable of revitalizing it’s sense of what life is for. The story it is running now is exhausted.

    Who knows? Perhaps you and I and other jaded westerners feel that way – albeit for rather different reasons of our own – but it’s not really clear to me that “the world” does. In fact, it seems to me that most of the world is quite hungry to raise its material standard of living.

    And why not? It may not be “everything,” but at least it’s real; you can touch it and feel it and know that it’s there, unlike spiritual goods that you have to convince yourself – often in the face of tremendous evidence to the contrary – that you actually possess.

    I bet if the Puritan community could have been convinced that no one need starve, even if they didn’t work, and that techniques could be developed and (all but) freely distributed which guaranteed the alleviation of symptoms of sickness, half of them would have gladly wiped their asses with scripture if those were the terms of the deal for immediate access to those benefits.

  307. @Adept
    @Dmitry


    It is the recipe for hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to be massacred, even if China has a highly organized military (which, who knows).

    I cannot believe that the Chinese would embark on a strategy so foolish and so wasteful.

    Their last great military campaign was a largely pointless punitive expedition into Vietnam in 1979. They lost roughly 10,000 men over three weeks, but they could sustain such losses with ease. For back then Chinese TFR was nearly 3.0, and the men who were sent to fight were born in an era when TFR was nearly 6.0.

    Today, Chinese TFR has been under replacement for more than 30 years. Every soldier dead on the field is an entire family line extinguished. The Chinese are very sensitive to this, however jingoistic they may otherwise seem.

    There are ways to take Taiwan without firing a single shot, e.g., China could engineer a loyalist coup. A carefully planned coup -- engineered over a couple of decades and with effectively limitless money (>$500B) to influence people and media interests -- could very well succeed, and would probably cost much less than an invasion. It would require some skullduggery and subtlety, but the Chinese should be capable of this. They are not Ugandans, after all.

    A less subtle alternative might be a blockade. Taiwan is hugely reliant on outside food imports -- far more reliant than China. (Taiwan is at roughly 20-30% food self-sufficiency compared to ~80-90% for China.) Taiwan doesn't have the offensive sea/air capabilities they'd need to break a blockade. They could be beaten by naval siege.

    Perhaps the least subtle alternative would be a blockade combined with "shock and awe" bombardment from the sea and the air. This would be a morally difficult option, to be sure, but, from a Chinese perspective, it would be less unfortunate than a million dead Army lads floating in the harbor and rotting in the streets.

    The only way for China to "lose" a blockade would be (a) IF the US Navy is prepared to risk WWIII over it, and (b) IF the US Navy is capable of defeating the Chinese in the pacific. Both questions are too uncertain to be answered at this time, but I believe that trends favor China, and perhaps quite heavily.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    The only way for China to “lose” a blockade would be (a) IF the US Navy is prepared to risk WWIII over it, and (b) IF the US Navy is capable of defeating the Chinese in the pacific.

    The concept of “WWIII” is too poisoned by Hollywood post-apocalyptic imagery to be of much use in a serious discussion. So let’s amend (a) to “if America is prepared to go to war with China over it.”

    Shockingly, even neo-isolationist realists like the topical John Mearsheimer appear to believe that Taiwan is important enough to risk war over. I’d like to think it’s merely a rhetorical sop to the interventionist-minded foreign policy establishment in order to help them to back off on present non-essentials like Russia – iow, hey if you still feel the yen to intervene, I know a better place to do it – but he is probably serious about it.

    (Other than that, I like his prescription of “offshore balancing”.)

  308. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    Only the US ultimately benefits from this,

    Elephants, mice, trampling, etc.

  309. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    Well as I stated before I would be very happy if Ron Unz was to archive this blog and open separate Open Threads on Ukraine (or whichever other topics). The blog is supposedly under my name but I don't even have moderation powers under posts not started by myself.

    Replies: @Beckow, @iffen

    under my name but I don’t even have moderation powers

    Peter, Peter, pumpkin eater has lost his moderation theatre.

    I remember you defending R. Unz vis-a-vis this issue with Peter Frost.

    Serves you right.

  310. So, is anyone more connected with Russian popular culture (Our unboxing video afficionado?) than I going to comment on this new ‘Z’ cult that started ‘spontaneously’ appearing everywhere in the past few days? Naturally, Karlin adopted it immediately.
    I really don’t like where this is going, you have Russia that seems to be actually sliding towards some sort of fascism versus the Americans, with all their hubris and LGBTXQKPOP insanity, again, I see no winners.
    After decades of stagnation, this is looking to become the conflict that Chinese historians will look back as ending ~500 years of European (in the broad sense) hegemony once and for all.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    this new ‘Z’ cult

    Lol this seems to have some kind of occultist or Aleister Crowley symbolism, with a secret kind of smile about its hidden meaning.

    We need Zhirinovsky to return and leak what the real meaning is.

    sliding towards some sort of fascism

    At the moment, there should be just a standard "Rally 'round the flag effect" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_%27round_the_flag_effect).

    But in the long term, this is not new in terms of the "KGB" style of astroturfing. 20 years ago it was even more like this.

    Just in the last decade, the younger population became possibly the most computer/internet addicted population in the world, and therefore government control of information was falling as it does not control all popular websites in the internet (YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, etc). So, government control of information can fall from something like 90% control to 85% control (my arbitrary numbers).

    But, here is an international crisis, which provides opportunity for the government to return to control more of the information space. Maybe they can now dream to a 90% control of information like it was a decade ago. Perhaps you can even get to 95%.

    -

    As for the astroturfing culture. There is always something very artificial and mechanical. But in Soviet times, it was as I always said, a more "high effort" astroturfing of culture.

    In 2000s, all the polite and attractive aspects of the Soviet propaganda culture was lost (e.g. beautiful music, polite, cultured television).

    There was even a minimum successful dream instead of pioneers, Surkov's youth movement for Putin cultism.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsULqjCfleE
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    Good, death to all Wh*toids.
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Yevardian

    https://twitter.com/dsmilde/status/1501357143504691201?s=20&t=jOPMpKt8pTEwBcYkrZgfJA

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNV0CbIagAMY-Qa.jpg
  311. @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    https://twitter.com/ASB_Breaking/status/1500917237611388936?s=20&t=S7KAAV_bW71xdw-m0fJbSg

    Replies: @songbird

    Fortunately, for Russians, counterfeits will not be effected.

  312. @Triteleia Laxa
    Looks like Putin is desperate for a way out. Russia will immediately stop their aggression if Ukraine:

    1. Recognises Crimea as Russia.

    2. Allows independence for the twin republics.

    3. Ukraine agrees not to join any blocs.

    I said that he should have offered this before the invasion, and wrote here that he should have offered it 48 hours in, but Putin the Bungler has only just gotten round to reality, but quite possibly too late. Why would the Ukrainians cede sovereignty now, when they know they can win?

    And please no Russian trolls pipe up to say that they should do so to save lives, as if the the threat of suffering casualties should make all proud people immediately surrender to imperial aggression.

    Anyway, I think that Ukraine should agree, but they should get in return:

    1. A written security guarantee that no Russian forces will enter Ukraine again.

    2. That the definition of a "bloc" does not include the EU.

    3. That the twin Republics gain independence on their pre-Russian aggression borders.

    Obviously an apology and compensation should also be sought.

    Or Ukraine could just keep Russia involved in an unwinnable war, where the Russian regime loses credibility by the day and the Russian military moves in the direction of zero combat effectiveness just as fast?

    After all, the Ukrainian military is much stronger now than when the war began, while the Russian military is much weaker and there is zero chance of Russia conducting a successful occupation of Ukraine.

    Anatoly, thoughts?

    Not that I know why I ask. Anything but "Putin is a glorious warlord who is winning this not a war" might well get you arrested.

    Famous Russian leaders:

    Peter the Great
    Catherine the Great
    Putin the Bungler

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mikhail, @Boethiuss, @iffen

    Do you also write A123?

  313. @A123
    @Boethiuss

    Thank you for admitting that you are a Stupid BS Troll and/or share Drooling' Joe's staggeringly limited mental capacity.

    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden's Impeachment trial(s).
    ___

    How are logic & facts tangential?

    As Not-The-President Biden is illegitimate, he does not represent America. Thus, when assigning blame one must use language that calls out the SJW/DNC and their WEF masters.
    ____

    When you are capable of admitting the TRUTH about the Blue Coup, feel free to do so.

    Until then your Dementia, Alzheimer's, and uncivil Troll BS will prevent you from making meaningful contributions to the discussion. In fact, your substance free, mouth frothing, #NeverTrump outbursts strengthen my position. I appreciate your profoundly incompetent, feeble, and unconvincing opposition.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.

    No no no. Either you have misunderstood or ignored the import of my prior comment. The judiciary didn’t “refuse to hear” the case or _cases_, they processed them like they would do for any other suit. There were briefs, there were hearings, I think in a couple of cases there might have even been trials.

    What there wasn’t, was evidence, ie documents or testimony to establish as facts what they were arguing for in their briefs, on television, and in person in front of friendly audiences.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden’s Impeachment trial(s).

    If that does happen, and the Senate convicts then President Biden is no longer President. But of course, that hasn’t happened, and there no imminent prospect of it happening soon. Btw, if there is an impeachment trial, CJ Roberts presides but he doesn’t get a vote.

    •�LOL: A123
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Boethiuss


    No no no. Either you have misunderstood or ignored the import of my prior comment. The judiciary didn’t “refuse to hear” the case or _cases_, they processed them like they would do for any other suit.
    ROTFLMAO

    Yes yes yes. Regurgitating Rachel Maddow's misinformation shows that you totally fail to grasp what actually happened.

    There were briefs, there were hearings,
    For the judiciary to be meaningful they needed to accelerate the briefing & hearing process. The courts intentionally imposed maximum slowness in the preliminaries to ensure that actual evidence would not be presented until after Inauguration Day.

    No one except for BS spewing, fact-free #NeverTrump acolytes, such as yourself, try to defend the defective court operation. Your unhinged misrepresentation of reality is ludicrous to the point of being humorous.

    Please keep up the obvious fabrications. I need something to laugh at.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇
  314. No sanctions for bombing Serbia as that was GAE.

    No sanctions for Turkey invading Cyprus, as it was a GAE ally against the USSR.

  315. KP says:
    @Barbarossa
    @silviosilver

    Your correction is fair enough. Thanks.

    I don't know that inflation is higher than the official numbers but my experience being in construction is showing that materials are up far more than that across the board. Many materials are double what they were two years ago and still rising. The slated hikes for this year don't even account for current surging energy prices, so many will go up even more than expected now.

    My buying covers a fairly large swath and coupled with what I see in my personal spending it looks quite grim. I can't think of much that has gone up less than 25% over pre-pandemic prices and many things have gone up 100% or more. I'm not sure what sectors of the economy are seeing such low gains as to balance the overall inflation picture to match the official numbers.

    I also would strongly suspect inflation numbers to be massaged down because of how the debt is handled in a similar way.

    Replies: @KP

    Of course they are massaged downwards! The Govt’s incentive to inflate their currency is to make paying debt easier and keeping the peasants quiet with wage increases, while bracket creep pushes wage & salary earners into ever higher tax brackets.

    The tool they use to hide it is the way they constantly re-design what they count to measure inflation.

    Does a washing machine price increase count when you buy food every week but a washing machine once in 10years?

    Why does having ‘lane-change warnings’ in you car offset a price increase because you have bought ‘more’ with that increase?

    There is no incentive for deflation, they hate it, yet over hundreds of years previously the price of say, bread, did not increase. There is every reason for deflation as technology makes products more cheaply, the only things that never go down are Govt taxes and the price of their services.

    It is a lot clearer when you get old.

  316. @Russian Antifa
    https://www.reddit.com/r/AntifascistsofReddit/comments/t0tj5n/proputin_russian_fake_journalist_anatoly_karlin/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Guest99

    Powerful Take…
    All these unknown commenters trash talking Karlin are actually AK as he trolls his despised vestigial commentariat by pretending to troll himself.

    •�Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Barbarossa

    No it's ODS.
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Oliver_D._Smith

    Replies: @Barbarossa
  317. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    WTH Mickey? I post a comment showing that over 4,300 Russians were being manhandled by Putler’s police state within Russia, and you reply with your usual BS? Give me a break, and try to stick to the subject matter. I’ll make this as simple as I can for you:

    Do you support Putler’s police in their actions to suppress peaceful demonstrations directed against Putler’s maniacal war efforts in Ukraine?
    Pure projection on your part. Talk about BS.

    Do you not condemn the Kiev regime's carnage against the Donbass rebel inhabitants, along with its coddling of Neo-Nazis - points noted in detail at this thread?

    "Manhandles" as how the Kiev regime treats some individuals and orgs with views different from their slant.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don’t understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I’ll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don’t understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I’ll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?
    From top to bottom regarding the above - regime forces increased in number near the rebels, with continued shelling and fatality from that side which has been greater than the other way around. All this happening as the regime for the past 7 years did nothing to begin implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol for a Donbass autonomy settlement.

    Neocon-neolib influenced US government hypocritically sanctions Russia, while not doing likewise with the Kiev regime.

    Zelensky won the presidency on a platform for better Russo-Ukrainian relations and an end to the Donbass conflict. In office, he bans cultural arrangements with the Hermitage and some other Russian venues, while propping the Neo-Nazis.

    Israelis, Americans, Russians, whatever, war involving civilian areas inevitably lead to civilian casualties which I've never gloated over.

    There was a valid way to prevent this and one still evident. Clint Ehrlich said something that I surmised. Putin apparently calculated that the NATOization of Ukraine was expanding to the point that it needed to get nipped in the butt sooner rather than later. Recall the rational for what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WW II.

    As I earlier advocated for ending the conflict sooner rather than later, in a way that supports an end to killing:

    - Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    - Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    - Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn't sacrifice the security of another country.

    - In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    - NATO and Russia further discuss their differences.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they've utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mikel
    , @Aedib
    @Mr. Hack

    It would have been interesting to see in The Sun similar images of civilian victims in the Donbass.

    Selective indignation is hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @AP
  318. Some people are saying that there is no way that GAE could take over Russia, even if it surrendered, but Ukraine seems remarkably woke, on a GDP per capita basis. On a dollar to dollar basis, it would make Ireland (super-woke in reality), with its corporate tax haven structure, seem based.

    BTW, are Russian or Chinese or Moldovan universities as enriched? Wonder what the cost differential is.

    Something makes me very suspicious when I see all those non-Euro faces in Ukraine, even if they are there for university. At a minimum, I bet a lot of them are being sponsored, in order to help transform the culture. You change the environment of the universities and that is a big input on the elites. But, I also suspect that it is being used as a springboard to invade Western Europe. Maybe, teaching English. Giving people the phony credentials needed, to help facilitate the lie that it is desirable to have them immigrate.

    •�Replies: @Coconuts
    @songbird


    Some people are saying that there is no way that GAE could take over Russia, even if it surrendered, but Ukraine seems remarkably woke, on a GDP per capita basis. On a dollar to dollar basis, it would make Ireland (super-woke in reality), with its corporate tax haven structure, seem based.
    Imo it's harder to gauge in post-Soviet countries because of legacy socialist progressivism, which had a certain level of overlap with liberal progressivism and now the Woke New Left stuff.

    From what I can tell worship of blacks and idealised oppressed noble savage archetypes is much more minimal and doesn't really exist as a cultural trope yet, so there is an obvious difference with how things are in Anglo culture at the moment.

    Replies: @songbird
  319. @Yevardian
    So, is anyone more connected with Russian popular culture (Our unboxing video afficionado?) than I going to comment on this new 'Z' cult that started 'spontaneously' appearing everywhere in the past few days? Naturally, Karlin adopted it immediately.
    I really don't like where this is going, you have Russia that seems to be actually sliding towards some sort of fascism versus the Americans, with all their hubris and LGBTXQKPOP insanity, again, I see no winners.
    After decades of stagnation, this is looking to become the conflict that Chinese historians will look back as ending ~500 years of European (in the broad sense) hegemony once and for all.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill

    this new ‘Z’ cult

    Lol this seems to have some kind of occultist or Aleister Crowley symbolism, with a secret kind of smile about its hidden meaning.

    We need Zhirinovsky to return and leak what the real meaning is.

    sliding towards some sort of fascism

    At the moment, there should be just a standard “Rally ’round the flag effect” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_%27round_the_flag_effect).

    But in the long term, this is not new in terms of the “KGB” style of astroturfing. 20 years ago it was even more like this.

    Just in the last decade, the younger population became possibly the most computer/internet addicted population in the world, and therefore government control of information was falling as it does not control all popular websites in the internet (YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, etc). So, government control of information can fall from something like 90% control to 85% control (my arbitrary numbers).

    But, here is an international crisis, which provides opportunity for the government to return to control more of the information space. Maybe they can now dream to a 90% control of information like it was a decade ago. Perhaps you can even get to 95%.

    As for the astroturfing culture. There is always something very artificial and mechanical. But in Soviet times, it was as I always said, a more “high effort” astroturfing of culture.

    In 2000s, all the polite and attractive aspects of the Soviet propaganda culture was lost (e.g. beautiful music, polite, cultured television).

    There was even a minimum successful dream instead of pioneers, Surkov’s youth movement for Putin cultism.

  320. A123 says: •�Website
    @Boethiuss
    @A123


    The SJW controlled judiciary procedurally stymied and refused to hear the case on the merits. Thus, they endorsed the coup via their inaction. The courts ran out the clock to avoid accepting evidence.
    No no no. Either you have misunderstood or ignored the import of my prior comment. The judiciary didn't "refuse to hear" the case or _cases_, they processed them like they would do for any other suit. There were briefs, there were hearings, I think in a couple of cases there might have even been trials.

    What there wasn't, was evidence, ie documents or testimony to establish as facts what they were arguing for in their briefs, on television, and in person in front of friendly audiences.

    The first time a SCOTUS member will actually deal with facts is after the mid-terms. Chief Justice Roberts will have to sit quietly and hear facts during Not-The-President Biden’s Impeachment trial(s).
    If that does happen, and the Senate convicts then President Biden is no longer President. But of course, that hasn't happened, and there no imminent prospect of it happening soon. Btw, if there is an impeachment trial, CJ Roberts presides but he doesn't get a vote.

    Replies: @A123

    No no no. Either you have misunderstood or ignored the import of my prior comment. The judiciary didn’t “refuse to hear” the case or _cases_, they processed them like they would do for any other suit.

    ROTFLMAO

    Yes yes yes. Regurgitating Rachel Maddow’s misinformation shows that you totally fail to grasp what actually happened.

    There were briefs, there were hearings,

    For the judiciary to be meaningful they needed to accelerate the briefing & hearing process. The courts intentionally imposed maximum slowness in the preliminaries to ensure that actual evidence would not be presented until after Inauguration Day.

    No one except for BS spewing, fact-free #NeverTrump acolytes, such as yourself, try to defend the defective court operation. Your unhinged misrepresentation of reality is ludicrous to the point of being humorous.

    Please keep up the obvious fabrications. I need something to laugh at.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

  321. Mikel says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    going too far when you’re trying to argue that US diplomatic actions in the run-up to the Iraq war were somehow a model of sophisticated statecraft
    Where have I said 2003 is the "model of sophisticated statecraft"? This seems to be your subjective projection to my comments, of something I have not written.

    I would say description of a difference I wanted to talk about, would be something like "attempt to manufacture casus belli to present to international community in 2003" vs "no presentation casus belli to international community, with surprise attack in 2022".

    If you read the comments above, I have only used Aliev in any sentence, that could imply sophistication (and even there is probably rhetorical exaggeration of Aliev in my comment, but he is the most recent example of starting such a war, without international reaction).

    I do not write anyone should emulate 2003 invasion of Iraq, whether invasion itself, or diplomatic activity before. But if you choose between presentation of manufactured pretext to international community before war of aggression, vs no presentation of pretext and then surprise attack. Then the former will be a less diplomatically noneffective strategy than the latter.

    WMDs were widely regarded as a pretext, or at the very least there was a sense that the US didn’t really want to give the UN inspectors around Hans Blix the chance to continue their work, but was itching to resort to military
    Of course, but I'm talking with Barbarossa about "creating of pretext" vs "not creating of pretext, then surprise attack".

    I'm not talking about "having pretext" vs "not having pretext". This is about "creating pretext".

    It's not "just war" vs "unjust war". "Just war" would require "having pretext", not "creating pretext".

    My impression of the historical consensus, is that people do not argue that Iraq 2003 is "just war" according to its manufactured pretext. It is viewed as a "unjust war with manufactured pretext".

    But one of many differences you can see between 2003 and 2022, is attempt to add a manufactured pretext to present to the international community, before the invasion in 2003. If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext (if if only some will believe it).

    Replies: @German_reader, @Blinky Bill, @Mikel

    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext

    No. If you need to manufacture a pretext, you just shouldn’t go to war because you don’t have a defensible case and that is what people around the world are going to judge you for sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, Russia could have presented a rather reasonable case for some sort of military action against Ukraine: the Ukrainians have killed thousands of Russophone civilians in Donbas, have failed to fulfill the Minsk agreement for years, are mistreating their Russophone population, their plans to join NATO pose a grave danger to Russia’s security,…

    If they had managed to effectively convey all these arguments to the Western audience over the past years, they would now have much more support (although I would personally still be opposed to the kind of war they have chosen) but instead Russia used its most influential media in the West (such as RT) to troll with BLM and LGBTQ stuff, obfuscate with unbelievable stories about MH-17 or the Skripal clown show and when the time finally came to take action lie idiotically about Ukraine being the one attacking Russian territory, making thus sure that nobody is going to believe anything else they say.

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it’s not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mikel


    shouldn’t go to war
    Obviously. You shouldn't do things, like e.g. mass murdering people.

    But I'm comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext. Not whether you should go to war or not.

    I begin to talk about this topic, because I'm interested in comparing 1999 to today, rather than the 2003 events. But talking about the 2003 war is what seems to excite people in this forum (who then project their own views to my posts).

    When you talk about 1999 here, everyone in the forum is quiet, even Yevardian (who I am hoping would add some interesting discussion since Grozny is only like 200 kilometres distance from Armenia).

    Replies: @Mikel
    , @mal
    @Mikel


    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.
    You are not a Russian. Or Ukrainian for that matter.

    Why are you so anxiously desperate for Russian military to bring out Pinocchios into the field?

    Do you seriously want to see body parts flying everywhere? Do you want to see civilians, women and children, melted into concrete?

    Russians are trying to be diplomatic about it. It is entirely possible that Russians are wrong about it. Are you seriously craving the "right" strategy in this case?

    Again, you are not a Russian or a Ukrainian. Why do you want Russian diplomatic efforts to fail and for Russians to bake Ukrainians into concrete? What business is that of yours?
    , @Thulean Friend
    @Mikel


    it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.
    1. Rapid revisionism on Twitter.
    2. Pretend what you said previously never happened.
    3. Hope nobody notices.
    4. Get enraged when called out.


    This is the pattern we've already seen.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
  322. How do Jap sanctions against Russia compare with those against South Africa? Am I correct in perceiving that they are worse? And does that mean that Japan, in its senescence (and fallen T), has moved further under America’s thumb?

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @songbird


    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it’s not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.
    Yeah, this is an important paragraph. As I understand it, the current Karlin line is to say, "Yeah, Ukrainian resistance has been stronger than we thought, and Russian army performance has been poorer than we thought but ultimately it doesn't make any difference. At the end of the day Russia is much stronger than Ukraine and will deploy whatever resources are required to win."

    There are quite a number of smart people who think this, and not all of them are Russophiles. And this is certainly well within the realm of possibility, but I'm still skeptical.

    The basic reality of the war as it stands is that Russia has made little if any progress over the last week. It controls only a small percentage of the territory of Ukraine. Most of the part that it does control were already being contested on its behalf by separatist groups. The logistics of the Russian army are horrible. And they are routinely losing control of previously held military objectives.

    And one thing that's so mind-boggling it's still hard for me to get my head around: Russia still does not have air supremacy in theater. They barely have air advantage, and maybe not even that. It's ten days into the war and the Ukrainian air force and Ukrainian air defense is still operational and effective.

    A week ago, I wouldn't have believed the idea that the Russian army would straight-up militarily lose to the Ukrainians. It's not at all ridiculous now.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  323. Here is a discussion thread in Twitter about war in the South of Ukraine.

  324. @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext
    No. If you need to manufacture a pretext, you just shouldn't go to war because you don't have a defensible case and that is what people around the world are going to judge you for sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, Russia could have presented a rather reasonable case for some sort of military action against Ukraine: the Ukrainians have killed thousands of Russophone civilians in Donbas, have failed to fulfill the Minsk agreement for years, are mistreating their Russophone population, their plans to join NATO pose a grave danger to Russia's security,...

    If they had managed to effectively convey all these arguments to the Western audience over the past years, they would now have much more support (although I would personally still be opposed to the kind of war they have chosen) but instead Russia used its most influential media in the West (such as RT) to troll with BLM and LGBTQ stuff, obfuscate with unbelievable stories about MH-17 or the Skripal clown show and when the time finally came to take action lie idiotically about Ukraine being the one attacking Russian territory, making thus sure that nobody is going to believe anything else they say.

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it's not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @mal, @Thulean Friend

    shouldn’t go to war

    Obviously. You shouldn’t do things, like e.g. mass murdering people.

    But I’m comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext. Not whether you should go to war or not.

    I begin to talk about this topic, because I’m interested in comparing 1999 to today, rather than the 2003 events. But talking about the 2003 war is what seems to excite people in this forum (who then project their own views to my posts).

    When you talk about 1999 here, everyone in the forum is quiet, even Yevardian (who I am hoping would add some interesting discussion since Grozny is only like 200 kilometres distance from Armenia).

    •�Replies: @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    But I’m comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext.
    But you have also said that manufacturing a pretext is better and I've tried to explain why the opposite is true, especially when you don't have to (although everything I said Russia could have argued would also be a pretext if Putin is just following AK's expansionist ideas, which is possibly the case).

    Replies: @Dmitry
  325. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=245343

    https://wholistic.substack.com/p/russia-invades-ukraine-some-context?utm_source=url&s=r

    https://nonzero.substack.com/p/why-biden-didnt-negotiate-seriously?utm_source=url&s=r

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html

    Then this gem from David Goldman:

    “Remember: Putin proposed Minsk II, which kept Ukraine sovereignty. Berlin and Paris backed it, but they couldn’t persuade Washington to get on board. Kiev agreed, then balked with a nudge from Blinken. Russia won’t trust the Europeans for a long time. That leaves Beijing.”

    To sum up, you have to be a f**king moron not to realize this war was deliberately engineered by outside parties from our (USA) side.

    •�Agree: LondonBob
    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Abelard Lindsey


    To sum up, you have to be a f**king moron not to realize this war was deliberately engineered by outside parties from our (USA) side.
    This is pretty obtuse. Of all the things in this world to ignore, the determination of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian political establishment to fight and sacrifice in their own defense has turned the world on its ear.

    The United States would have sanctioned Russia anyway. But level and severity of the sanctions, plus obviously the willingness to support Ukraine militarily, all of that comes from the leadership of the Ukrainians.
  326. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa


    Russia just needs more convincing BS
    Yes, although without the "just" from this sentence.

    I wrote this in like 4 times now, so I am not sure require me to re-write everything.

    It's not "just needs". It's not sufficient condition, but casus belli is a necessary condition to reduce the international reaction.

    I'm not saying a country "just need" to manufacture a casus belli before a war of aggression, anymore than you "just need to fill your suitcase before to go for the vacation" (there are many other conditions involved, like buying tickets). But you should remember to fill your suitcase.

    Russia just isn’t tricky enough and needs to dupe the international community more effectively?
    Well, look at the Second Chechen War, which is a more complicated situation, as it happens during internal political confrontation within Russian political system itself, and within "territorial integrity" of the Russian Federation.

    But among other things supporting reduction of international reaction to this war (like principle of territorial integrity, better relations with the West), you can see also likely effect of manufacturing casus belli, results in lesser international reaction. There appear to be no sanctions, for example, despite condemning speeches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War#Human_rights_and_terrorism

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa

    Whether there is a temporarily convincing, while empty, casus belli or not is immaterial. The underlying war, such as Iraq is still wholly unjustified.

    From a standpoint of preserving or caring about an international order and rules, an invasion such as Russia’s of Ukraine is actually preferable to one such as the American invasion of Iraq.

    An attack such as the Russian one is clearly outside the expressed “norms”. Putin has little pretense about that and seemingly couldn’t care less. While it is a violation of such norms it’s main danger to these rules is one of power; essentially that Putin can “get away” with it.

    The American example in Iraq is much more destructive because it is not only an act against such norms, but it makes a complete mockery of the entire structure and process by using lies and deception to seemingly work within it. An invasion such as Iraq fundamentally de-legitimizes the entire international order.

    As such, the international repercussions against America after the Iraq invasion should have been sure and swift to demonstrate that such deception will not be tolerated. This reaction would have given legitimacy to the idea that the system works impartially.

    It’s like I tell my kids, lying about doing X is far far worse than actually doing X. Also, no one likes a game where one kid gets to write and re-write the rules. The other kids go find some other game to play.

    It’s all a rather academic exercise at this point, since the international system has been hopelessly gamed and biased and will be unlikely to gain real legitimacy any time in the foreseeable future.
    Putin is not interested in playing within an international system which is rigged against him and as such sees little point in assembling a rationale to appease an international community who will never countenance his desired actions.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    Perhaps tricking the rules could be "more destructive" for those rules, than just ignoring rules of diplomacy? That is not the point though. I'm saying one of the reasons why we see such a strong international reaction to the invasion is not trying to trick on the rules, not presenting any casus belli in the UN, etc.
  327. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don't understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I'll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?

    https://youtu.be/fLcHPV-X_Xo

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib

    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don’t understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I’ll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?

    From top to bottom regarding the above – regime forces increased in number near the rebels, with continued shelling and fatality from that side which has been greater than the other way around. All this happening as the regime for the past 7 years did nothing to begin implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol for a Donbass autonomy settlement.

    Neocon-neolib influenced US government hypocritically sanctions Russia, while not doing likewise with the Kiev regime.

    Zelensky won the presidency on a platform for better Russo-Ukrainian relations and an end to the Donbass conflict. In office, he bans cultural arrangements with the Hermitage and some other Russian venues, while propping the Neo-Nazis.

    Israelis, Americans, Russians, whatever, war involving civilian areas inevitably lead to civilian casualties which I’ve never gloated over.

    There was a valid way to prevent this and one still evident. Clint Ehrlich said something that I surmised. Putin apparently calculated that the NATOization of Ukraine was expanding to the point that it needed to get nipped in the butt sooner rather than later. Recall the rational for what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WW II.

    As I earlier advocated for ending the conflict sooner rather than later, in a way that supports an end to killing:

    – Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    – Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    – Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn’t sacrifice the security of another country.

    – In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    – NATO and Russia further discuss their differences.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they’ve utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    It's a shame that Putin reads Karlin's blog and not yours......

    Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Mikel
    @Mikhail


    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media.
    From what I've seen in the past week, giving Ramzan Kadyrov a senior role in the information sphere would mark an improvement.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Pharmakon
  328. mal says:
    @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    International response, also relates to saying to everyone there would be no invasion, then invading, with lack of casus belli.

    They did a dozen small false flag attacks in Donbass and Crimea. They evacuated some "refugees" in a group of buses, which were children from orphanage. Prerecorded videos with metadata not matching the dates. They talked about "genocide" for a couple days. But there was lack of effort to create a coherent narrative or false flag.

    In the end, everyone saw it followed what Zhirinovsky had already leaked. It was like (to copy your name) Operation Barbarossa, with the 4am surprise attack, with no declaration of war.

    In 1999, with the Second Chechen War, they prepared with much more effort for the casus belli, operating false flag attacks with bombs of residential buildings in Moscow.

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view.

    Elaborate false flags with hundreds of casualties, can create more international acceptance of war, compared to some Mukden Incident or Gleiwitz incident.

    But the Operation Barbarossa where you attack 4 am without declaration of war, is what happened, is one of most difficult to present to the international community. Even with Pearl Harbor there was a declaration of war, although only given late. Russia is still not declared war with Ukraine. It's legally still peacetime. That's why it's important in Russia to call this a "special military operation" and illegal to call it war.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Barbarossa, @mal

    The preparation and false flags in 1999 was costly for human life (and incompetent, as parts of the false flag were revealed, when FSB agents are found to be adding bombs to a basement), but the result was no sanctions during the war. It was successful, from the cynical point of view

    I’m sorry but this is very silly Berezovsky conspiracy theory, and i say this as somebody who loves a good conspiracy theory.

    2nd Chechen war start had nothing to do with the bombings. The bombings started in September 1999 when the was was already raging for almost a month. The 2nd Chechen war started when jihadi “Peacekeeping” brigade under command of Saudi terrorist invaded Dagestan. That happened in August 1999, well before the bombings. Russia had all the casus belli it needed. So no need to bomb apartments.

    •�Agree: Mikhail, LondonBob
  329. Mikel says:
    @Dmitry
    @Mikel


    shouldn’t go to war
    Obviously. You shouldn't do things, like e.g. mass murdering people.

    But I'm comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext. Not whether you should go to war or not.

    I begin to talk about this topic, because I'm interested in comparing 1999 to today, rather than the 2003 events. But talking about the 2003 war is what seems to excite people in this forum (who then project their own views to my posts).

    When you talk about 1999 here, everyone in the forum is quiet, even Yevardian (who I am hoping would add some interesting discussion since Grozny is only like 200 kilometres distance from Armenia).

    Replies: @Mikel

    But I’m comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext.

    But you have also said that manufacturing a pretext is better and I’ve tried to explain why the opposite is true, especially when you don’t have to (although everything I said Russia could have argued would also be a pretext if Putin is just following AK’s expansionist ideas, which is possibly the case).

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    In the original plan, planned for some years (actually 8 years), was expansionary and they had prepared articles to celebrate a rapid victory, which they deleted from the internet. From wayback - https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html)

    The other things are of course manufactured narratives, which don't explain why you would be motivated to go into Ukraine. It's like sometimes people should listen to Zhirinovsky. He is such a kind of artist that mixed truth and fiction, so it's not only entertainment when you listen to him, some of his views can be accurate descriptions.
  330. mal says:
    @Thulean Friend
    Comparisons with Iran, Cuba or even North Korea(!) are wildly overstated. Russia will manage this crisis far better.

    https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1500615240505085952

    China, India, Africa and all the important players in Latinx America have unequivocally stated that they will not sanction Russia. The so-called "devastating SWIFT sanctions" have more holes than Swiss cheese. The biggest and most systemically important bank in Russia, Sberbank, has been spared because it is critical in facilitating oil and gas trade.

    This should not surprise us. Germany and Italy made these demands and are not backing off. The US is now trying to pursue an oil embargo alone on Russia, which is mostly just optics as America was never an important client. It's also an admission of defeat that it can't get Europe to sign on.

    Russia's export structure is ideally suited to the moment, with commodity prices going on a rampage. The contrast with the 2014 crisis couldn't have been more stark, when the bottom fell out and forced Russia to play defensive. In addition, the economy was less prepared for a radical shift. MIR didn't exist then. China's own technological sovereignty progress was far behind what it is now.

    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

    The biggest long-term challenge is to guarantee a smooth transition to Chinese alternatives once/when commodity prices calm down. Russia is too weak to go it alone and pride may prevent many Russians from accepting that. Current elevated commodity prices are giving Russia a giant umbrella to work under. Better prepare for the rain when the umbrella is gone.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Barbarossa, @mal

    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.

    It’s funny but I think the pessimists are right on this one at least in the short term.

    The “swiss cheese” comment is silly because there’s a lot of self sanctioning going on. Even if only a few Russian banks got banned, in reality, this means the whole banking system. Due to counter party risk all of Russian assets are deemed toxic.

    It doesn’t mean the end of the world though. Ruble resumed devaluation that i expected which is needed to save Russian balance of payments. This is important because we are about to enter Great Depression 2.0 and demand for commodities will slump. Russia is profiting now, but it won’t be forever. Devaluation is the key part of long term strategy and if it doesn’t happen Russia is screwed.

    With attack on CBR reserves, eurodollar is done. In the upcoming depression, ex-US world will be unable to pay off USD denominated debt and will default. Meanwhile, US will be forced to print dozens of \$trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90’s for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don’t see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.

    The end game though is well worth it as bilateral trade agreements will emerge from the ruins of the eurodollar system. The planet will taste freedom and sovereignty for the first time since 19th century. US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @mal


    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated
    The € EuroZone [EZ] was a mistake from Day 1. Multinational MegaCorporations liked the idea, but it flew in the face of history. A currency union without a fiscal union is inherently unstable. The € will be devastated, destroying over leveraged financial institutions, such as DeutscheBank and CreditAgricole. Countries & countries highly dependant on foreign export markets will lose badly when sovereign currencies resume.

    Where I diverge from your prediction is, "What happens after the EU ends?" There will be genuine winners that are currently being held back by Brussels. Poland will immediately gain by junking global warming mythology. Cheap electricity will power its economy. Greece and Italy are victims of EZ austerity policies. Their national economies will rebound when the EU and € go away.

    US will be forced to print dozens of $trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.
    ...
    US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.
    One of the facets of MAGA Reindustrialization is fixing this over emphasis on services. The U.S. is both food and energy independent. Main Street America will be much stronger via:

    -- Extracting & refining additional raw materials (including rare earth elements).
    -- Creating finished products for domestic consumers using domestic labor.

    MegaCorporations that depend on undercutting U.S. wages via migration and outsourcing will be crushed. Having a strong bubble that protects citizens and local industries from predatory nations is a winning policy.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @mal


    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90’s for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don’t see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.
    If you know what is going to happen you are smarter than any person who ever lived!

    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?

    Just kidding. : )

    The bit about Newton is true but he had a good job so he didn't become a homeless person or anything.

    Replies: @silviosilver
  331. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don’t understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I’ll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?
    From top to bottom regarding the above - regime forces increased in number near the rebels, with continued shelling and fatality from that side which has been greater than the other way around. All this happening as the regime for the past 7 years did nothing to begin implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol for a Donbass autonomy settlement.

    Neocon-neolib influenced US government hypocritically sanctions Russia, while not doing likewise with the Kiev regime.

    Zelensky won the presidency on a platform for better Russo-Ukrainian relations and an end to the Donbass conflict. In office, he bans cultural arrangements with the Hermitage and some other Russian venues, while propping the Neo-Nazis.

    Israelis, Americans, Russians, whatever, war involving civilian areas inevitably lead to civilian casualties which I've never gloated over.

    There was a valid way to prevent this and one still evident. Clint Ehrlich said something that I surmised. Putin apparently calculated that the NATOization of Ukraine was expanding to the point that it needed to get nipped in the butt sooner rather than later. Recall the rational for what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WW II.

    As I earlier advocated for ending the conflict sooner rather than later, in a way that supports an end to killing:

    - Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    - Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    - Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn't sacrifice the security of another country.

    - In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    - NATO and Russia further discuss their differences.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they've utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mikel

    It’s a shame that Putin reads Karlin’s blog and not yours……

    •�LOL: Mikhail
    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    I've been making inroads by other means.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  332. mal says:
    @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext
    No. If you need to manufacture a pretext, you just shouldn't go to war because you don't have a defensible case and that is what people around the world are going to judge you for sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, Russia could have presented a rather reasonable case for some sort of military action against Ukraine: the Ukrainians have killed thousands of Russophone civilians in Donbas, have failed to fulfill the Minsk agreement for years, are mistreating their Russophone population, their plans to join NATO pose a grave danger to Russia's security,...

    If they had managed to effectively convey all these arguments to the Western audience over the past years, they would now have much more support (although I would personally still be opposed to the kind of war they have chosen) but instead Russia used its most influential media in the West (such as RT) to troll with BLM and LGBTQ stuff, obfuscate with unbelievable stories about MH-17 or the Skripal clown show and when the time finally came to take action lie idiotically about Ukraine being the one attacking Russian territory, making thus sure that nobody is going to believe anything else they say.

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it's not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @mal, @Thulean Friend

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    You are not a Russian. Or Ukrainian for that matter.

    Why are you so anxiously desperate for Russian military to bring out Pinocchios into the field?

    Do you seriously want to see body parts flying everywhere? Do you want to see civilians, women and children, melted into concrete?

    Russians are trying to be diplomatic about it. It is entirely possible that Russians are wrong about it. Are you seriously craving the “right” strategy in this case?

    Again, you are not a Russian or a Ukrainian. Why do you want Russian diplomatic efforts to fail and for Russians to bake Ukrainians into concrete? What business is that of yours?

  333. @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    Whether there is a temporarily convincing, while empty, casus belli or not is immaterial. The underlying war, such as Iraq is still wholly unjustified.

    From a standpoint of preserving or caring about an international order and rules, an invasion such as Russia's of Ukraine is actually preferable to one such as the American invasion of Iraq.

    An attack such as the Russian one is clearly outside the expressed "norms". Putin has little pretense about that and seemingly couldn't care less. While it is a violation of such norms it's main danger to these rules is one of power; essentially that Putin can "get away" with it.

    The American example in Iraq is much more destructive because it is not only an act against such norms, but it makes a complete mockery of the entire structure and process by using lies and deception to seemingly work within it. An invasion such as Iraq fundamentally de-legitimizes the entire international order.

    As such, the international repercussions against America after the Iraq invasion should have been sure and swift to demonstrate that such deception will not be tolerated. This reaction would have given legitimacy to the idea that the system works impartially.

    It's like I tell my kids, lying about doing X is far far worse than actually doing X. Also, no one likes a game where one kid gets to write and re-write the rules. The other kids go find some other game to play.

    It's all a rather academic exercise at this point, since the international system has been hopelessly gamed and biased and will be unlikely to gain real legitimacy any time in the foreseeable future.
    Putin is not interested in playing within an international system which is rigged against him and as such sees little point in assembling a rationale to appease an international community who will never countenance his desired actions.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Perhaps tricking the rules could be “more destructive” for those rules, than just ignoring rules of diplomacy? That is not the point though. I’m saying one of the reasons why we see such a strong international reaction to the invasion is not trying to trick on the rules, not presenting any casus belli in the UN, etc.

  334. Russia is self-sufficient in both food and energy. All of the western companies (Apple, Visa, etc.) that have cut off service to Russian customers will be replaced by their Chinese competitors.

    This kind of “collective punishment” has never worked in any conflict. In WW2 the Germans started bombing London at night (London Blitz) thinking they could break British morale. British morale stiffened during the Blitz. Same thing when the Brits started bombing German cities later in the war. They thought the could break German morale. They stiffened it instead. The Israelis have all kinds of economic restrictions on the Palestinians, including petty stuff like preventing the importation of sweets and musical instruments into the occupied territories. Again, these policies are intended for collective punishment. Another example is Iran. The Iranians are prevented from doing all kinds of stuff that affects the daily life of Iranians. I believe the intent of these policies is to somehow motivate the populations affected by such policies to do some sort of mass uprise against their own government. However, there is not a single historical example of this tactic working. In fact, historical examples abound of this tactic backfiring and having the exact opposite effect of what is intended. That political classes continue to try out these policies again and again despite the evidence it never works proves they meet the Einstein definition of insanity.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Abelard Lindsey


    Russia is self-sufficient in both food and energy. All of the western companies (Apple, Visa, etc.) that have cut off service to Russian customers will be replaced by their Chinese competitors.
    Yeah, that could happen but this really doesn't work for Russia either. If China is the only major sanction-busting trading partner for Russia, Russia becomes a Chinese vassal state pretty quick. That doesn't work for the Russia national ego ideologues like Karlin, it works even less for normie Russians.

    Normie Russians want a higher standard of living, which they know exist because they live 200 miles from Poland and 400 miles from Germany or whatever, and there's more than enough cultural connections for Russians to know what the German and Polish standard of living is, and the Russian standard of living isn't.

    And from there, due to sanctions Russia will be subsumed into the Chinese economy. But the Chinese standard of living is the worst of the bunch. So yeah, the idea that sanctions don't matter because Russia will find substitutes from China doesn't really work either.
  335. The Chinese may well broker an end to the Russian/Ukrainian war. The Chinese buy as much technical gear (jet engines, specialized alloys, etc) from the Ukrainians as they do natural resources from the Russians. The last thing the Chinese need is for both of these suppliers to destroy each other in a pointless war. The Chinese deal to end the war may even include a common market that would include both Russia and Ukraine that many other countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran, SE Asia, and many other might seek to enter. This kind of deal would preferentially favor all of the Chinese competitors to all of the Western companies that have stopped doing business. As such, these Western companies will be at a severe disadvantage in trying to re-enter any of these market following the end of the war. I also believe that part of the deal for ending the war will include the permanent expulsion and exclusion of all Western NGO’s, including those of George Soros, Bill Gates, and Klaus Schwab from this common market.

    The reason why I think this will happen is because it would be a major diplomatic coup for China, relative to the West (particularly the bozos in Washington DC). It would also help elevate China as the top economic and technological power in the world. This is precisely the kind of deal I would be working on if I were Xi Jinping.

    •�Replies: @Adept
    @Abelard Lindsey


    The Chinese may well broker an end to the Russian/Ukrainian war. The Chinese buy as much technical gear (jet engines, specialized alloys, etc) from the Ukrainians as they do natural resources from the Russians.
    That is incorrect.

    https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr

    Ukraine's exports are mostly non-technical. Their top exports to China are raw ore, corn, vegetables, and seed oil. It's true that they exported $30M of aircraft parts to China in 2019, but this is a small amount -- certainly insignificant on a geopolitical scale.

    Besides, Ukraine's technical and metallurgical factories are quite possibly rubble by now. So it's not like China can broker a deal and resume receiving aircraft parts from Ukraine immediately thereafter. It'll be years until Ukraine is back on its feet.
  336. @songbird
    How do Jap sanctions against Russia compare with those against South Africa? Am I correct in perceiving that they are worse? And does that mean that Japan, in its senescence (and fallen T), has moved further under America's thumb?

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it’s not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    Yeah, this is an important paragraph. As I understand it, the current Karlin line is to say, “Yeah, Ukrainian resistance has been stronger than we thought, and Russian army performance has been poorer than we thought but ultimately it doesn’t make any difference. At the end of the day Russia is much stronger than Ukraine and will deploy whatever resources are required to win.”

    There are quite a number of smart people who think this, and not all of them are Russophiles. And this is certainly well within the realm of possibility, but I’m still skeptical.

    The basic reality of the war as it stands is that Russia has made little if any progress over the last week. It controls only a small percentage of the territory of Ukraine. Most of the part that it does control were already being contested on its behalf by separatist groups. The logistics of the Russian army are horrible. And they are routinely losing control of previously held military objectives.

    And one thing that’s so mind-boggling it’s still hard for me to get my head around: Russia still does not have air supremacy in theater. They barely have air advantage, and maybe not even that. It’s ten days into the war and the Ukrainian air force and Ukrainian air defense is still operational and effective.

    A week ago, I wouldn’t have believed the idea that the Russian army would straight-up militarily lose to the Ukrainians. It’s not at all ridiculous now.

    •�LOL: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Boethiuss

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/isw_map-2.png

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Boethiuss, @AP
  337. @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    But I’m comparing the situation of international community reaction, between going to war without presenting any pretext vs. manufacturing pretext.
    But you have also said that manufacturing a pretext is better and I've tried to explain why the opposite is true, especially when you don't have to (although everything I said Russia could have argued would also be a pretext if Putin is just following AK's expansionist ideas, which is possibly the case).

    Replies: @Dmitry

    In the original plan, planned for some years (actually 8 years), was expansionary and they had prepared articles to celebrate a rapid victory, which they deleted from the internet. From wayback – https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html)

    The other things are of course manufactured narratives, which don’t explain why you would be motivated to go into Ukraine. It’s like sometimes people should listen to Zhirinovsky. He is such a kind of artist that mixed truth and fiction, so it’s not only entertainment when you listen to him, some of his views can be accurate descriptions.

    •�Agree: Yevardian
  338. @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    It's a shame that Putin reads Karlin's blog and not yours......

    Replies: @Mikhail

    I’ve been making inroads by other means.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Do you mean that the FBI is still reading your blog?

    Replies: @Mikhail
  339. @Abelard Lindsey
    Russia is self-sufficient in both food and energy. All of the western companies (Apple, Visa, etc.) that have cut off service to Russian customers will be replaced by their Chinese competitors.

    This kind of "collective punishment" has never worked in any conflict. In WW2 the Germans started bombing London at night (London Blitz) thinking they could break British morale. British morale stiffened during the Blitz. Same thing when the Brits started bombing German cities later in the war. They thought the could break German morale. They stiffened it instead. The Israelis have all kinds of economic restrictions on the Palestinians, including petty stuff like preventing the importation of sweets and musical instruments into the occupied territories. Again, these policies are intended for collective punishment. Another example is Iran. The Iranians are prevented from doing all kinds of stuff that affects the daily life of Iranians. I believe the intent of these policies is to somehow motivate the populations affected by such policies to do some sort of mass uprise against their own government. However, there is not a single historical example of this tactic working. In fact, historical examples abound of this tactic backfiring and having the exact opposite effect of what is intended. That political classes continue to try out these policies again and again despite the evidence it never works proves they meet the Einstein definition of insanity.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Russia is self-sufficient in both food and energy. All of the western companies (Apple, Visa, etc.) that have cut off service to Russian customers will be replaced by their Chinese competitors.

    Yeah, that could happen but this really doesn’t work for Russia either. If China is the only major sanction-busting trading partner for Russia, Russia becomes a Chinese vassal state pretty quick. That doesn’t work for the Russia national ego ideologues like Karlin, it works even less for normie Russians.

    Normie Russians want a higher standard of living, which they know exist because they live 200 miles from Poland and 400 miles from Germany or whatever, and there’s more than enough cultural connections for Russians to know what the German and Polish standard of living is, and the Russian standard of living isn’t.

    And from there, due to sanctions Russia will be subsumed into the Chinese economy. But the Chinese standard of living is the worst of the bunch. So yeah, the idea that sanctions don’t matter because Russia will find substitutes from China doesn’t really work either.

  340. @Abelard Lindsey
    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=245343

    https://wholistic.substack.com/p/russia-invades-ukraine-some-context?utm_source=url&s=r

    https://nonzero.substack.com/p/why-biden-didnt-negotiate-seriously?utm_source=url&s=r

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html

    Then this gem from David Goldman:

    “Remember: Putin proposed Minsk II, which kept Ukraine sovereignty. Berlin and Paris backed it, but they couldn't persuade Washington to get on board. Kiev agreed, then balked with a nudge from Blinken. Russia won't trust the Europeans for a long time. That leaves Beijing.”

    To sum up, you have to be a f**king moron not to realize this war was deliberately engineered by outside parties from our (USA) side.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    To sum up, you have to be a f**king moron not to realize this war was deliberately engineered by outside parties from our (USA) side.

    This is pretty obtuse. Of all the things in this world to ignore, the determination of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian political establishment to fight and sacrifice in their own defense has turned the world on its ear.

    The United States would have sanctioned Russia anyway. But level and severity of the sanctions, plus obviously the willingness to support Ukraine militarily, all of that comes from the leadership of the Ukrainians.

  341. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    I've been making inroads by other means.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Do you mean that the FBI is still reading your blog?

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Folks in Russia and abroad as well. I don't only communicate via online comments sections.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  342. @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    If you do not manufacture pretext, the international reaction will be likely much worse, than if you present manufactured pretext
    No. If you need to manufacture a pretext, you just shouldn't go to war because you don't have a defensible case and that is what people around the world are going to judge you for sooner or later.

    As a matter of fact, Russia could have presented a rather reasonable case for some sort of military action against Ukraine: the Ukrainians have killed thousands of Russophone civilians in Donbas, have failed to fulfill the Minsk agreement for years, are mistreating their Russophone population, their plans to join NATO pose a grave danger to Russia's security,...

    If they had managed to effectively convey all these arguments to the Western audience over the past years, they would now have much more support (although I would personally still be opposed to the kind of war they have chosen) but instead Russia used its most influential media in the West (such as RT) to troll with BLM and LGBTQ stuff, obfuscate with unbelievable stories about MH-17 or the Skripal clown show and when the time finally came to take action lie idiotically about Ukraine being the one attacking Russian territory, making thus sure that nobody is going to believe anything else they say.

    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it's not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.

    BTW, it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @mal, @Thulean Friend

    it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.

    1. Rapid revisionism on Twitter.
    2. Pretend what you said previously never happened.
    3. Hope nobody notices.
    4. Get enraged when called out.

    This is the pattern we’ve already seen.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://youtu.be/H_8BK6AAluQ
  343. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    There really doesn’t seem to be any way out of this mess, unless Putin moderates his demands at least somewhat (which seems unlikely).
    Well, unfortunately, on the general ground facts, I don't disagree. But now, after Russia has been reckless enough to initiate a full-scale war (perhaps not intended or expected as such, but in some sense, the incompetence implied by this is even worse) there's simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory, without revolution and anarchy breaking out in Russia itself. It would be the 1990s collapse all over again, except this time, absolutely no mercy would be given. Russia as a country would be comprehensively destroyed, to be totally Americanised, its corpse asset-stripped and flooded with pajeets and assorted Bantu tribesmen.

    That's why I said least bad. Only the US ultimately benefits from this, people say China, but thinking on it more, the country is could seriously suffer internationally from after losing Russia as a credible diplomatic ally, far more so if the Russian government itself gets toppled by a colour revolution, with horrific likely consequences.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin, @Dmitry, @LondonBob, @iffen, @Pharmakon

    there’s simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory

    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won’t be a decisive Russian victory?

    Thanks!

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Pharmakon


    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won’t be a decisive Russian victory?
    A week ago at this time the Russian invasion had stalled, resupply was failing, Russia was losing planes, helos and men, etc, etc. But, well you gotta understand Russia has only committed 30% of its amassed force inside Ukraine. Ok then.

    Now, it's a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there's not been much progress since then.

    That's an indicator this won't be a decisive Russian victory.

    Replies: @Pharmakon, @A123
  344. @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Do you mean that the FBI is still reading your blog?

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Folks in Russia and abroad as well. I don’t only communicate via online comments sections.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    And do these folks in Russia tell you that they feel that Putin is justified in his war invasion of Ukraine?

    Replies: @Mikhail
  345. @Pharmakon
    @Yevardian


    there’s simply no way of backing out of this without closing without uncontestable military victory
    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won't be a decisive Russian victory?

    Thanks!

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won’t be a decisive Russian victory?

    A week ago at this time the Russian invasion had stalled, resupply was failing, Russia was losing planes, helos and men, etc, etc. But, well you gotta understand Russia has only committed 30% of its amassed force inside Ukraine. Ok then.

    Now, it’s a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there’s not been much progress since then.

    That’s an indicator this won’t be a decisive Russian victory.

    •�Replies: @Pharmakon
    @Boethiuss

    You're giving me no indicators but Twitter-"expert"-level "arguments".
    Are you, by any chance, one them know-it-all people who "grew up with the Internet"?

    Be more precise: how many planes, AFVs, MRLS', etc each respective side had lost and what percentage do these loses represent out of the respective party's total strength? Does the VSU have the operational initiative on any of the decisive fronts?

    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a "Wenck's XII Army" surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?

    OT. The Ukrainians, too, are Russian, so I never expected them not to give their brothers a good fight. But this is melodramatic and it has nothing to do with the vast power-differential between the two parties.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Boethiuss
    , @A123
    @Boethiuss


    Now, it’s a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there’s not been much progress since then.

    That’s an indicator this won’t be a decisive Russian victory.
    It is an indicator that Russia is not rushing headlong into a mistake. The amount of material being moved by truck is quite high. I have not seen any solid explanation why Russian forces are using an unexpectedly low amount of rail transport.

    Also, levelling Kiev is a LOSE-LOSE proposition. That level of force will inflame public opinion abroad. There is still hope for negotiations during the logistics build-up period.
    _____

    Israel has stepped up to the plate with Its own efforts at mediating a peace deal: (1)

    Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett—not just any leader but Israel’s first Orthodox one—boarded a plane for Moscow on Saturday, it was clear something unusual was afoot. Halakhic exceptions are granted only when lives are at stake.

    Bennett met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for three hours at the Kremlin and then flew to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Israeli leader is depicting the trip as a bid to mediate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, two countries with long-standing political and cultural ties to Israel. Bennett has also spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several times by phone in recent days and with French President Emmanuel Macron
    ...
    Bennett told his cabinet on Sunday, hours after his return to Israel. “Even if the chance is not great—as soon as there is even a small opening, and we have access to all sides and the capability—I see this as our moral obligation to make every effort.”

    The meeting in Moscow was the first between Putin and a Western leader since Russia sent troops into Ukraine last month. Although Bennett would seem like an unlikely mediator—he’s held office for less than a year and remains largely untested—he is one of the few world leaders with open channels to all sides of the Ukraine conflict.
    There is still an opportunity for Zelensky to negotiate an end to this conflict.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/07/israel-ukraine-mediation-russia-bennett-putin/
  346. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Folks in Russia and abroad as well. I don't only communicate via online comments sections.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    And do these folks in Russia tell you that they feel that Putin is justified in his war invasion of Ukraine?

    •�Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Mixed, noting that these are mostly media/foreign policy intelligentsia types. Those seeing a basis do so without any kind of comfort. Nothing like Poroshenko saying that "their" (Donbass rebel inhabited) kids will be in cellars getting bombed while ours are free and going to school.

    Whatever happened to Nadiya Savchenko, if I correctly recall her name?. Her image went down around the time she acknowledged Kiev regime fault-lines in Donbass.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  347. Mikhail says: •�Website
    @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    And do these folks in Russia tell you that they feel that Putin is justified in his war invasion of Ukraine?

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Mixed, noting that these are mostly media/foreign policy intelligentsia types. Those seeing a basis do so without any kind of comfort. Nothing like Poroshenko saying that “their” (Donbass rebel inhabited) kids will be in cellars getting bombed while ours are free and going to school.

    Whatever happened to Nadiya Savchenko, if I correctly recall her name?. Her image went down around the time she acknowledged Kiev regime fault-lines in Donbass.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    I don't know anything about Nadiya Savchenko, but I'm very impressed with the outpouring of support shown for the Ukrainian side in this war. Over 16,000 (and still counting) volunteers from all corners of the world have come to help fight the war against Russian aggression:

    https://youtu.be/4WsIkf30Vok

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  348. @Yevardian
    So, is anyone more connected with Russian popular culture (Our unboxing video afficionado?) than I going to comment on this new 'Z' cult that started 'spontaneously' appearing everywhere in the past few days? Naturally, Karlin adopted it immediately.
    I really don't like where this is going, you have Russia that seems to be actually sliding towards some sort of fascism versus the Americans, with all their hubris and LGBTXQKPOP insanity, again, I see no winners.
    After decades of stagnation, this is looking to become the conflict that Chinese historians will look back as ending ~500 years of European (in the broad sense) hegemony once and for all.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill

    Good, death to all Wh*toids.

  349. @Barbarossa
    @Russian Antifa

    Powerful Take...
    All these unknown commenters trash talking Karlin are actually AK as he trolls his despised vestigial commentariat by pretending to troll himself.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Too bad. I figured it was a low chance of accuracy but I liked the way my theory sounded.

    Oliver D. Smith seems like a very special character. If you are finding yourself shadowed on the internet and trolled by such a lowlife, you have my sincerest condolences.
  350. @Boethiuss
    @Pharmakon


    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won’t be a decisive Russian victory?
    A week ago at this time the Russian invasion had stalled, resupply was failing, Russia was losing planes, helos and men, etc, etc. But, well you gotta understand Russia has only committed 30% of its amassed force inside Ukraine. Ok then.

    Now, it's a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there's not been much progress since then.

    That's an indicator this won't be a decisive Russian victory.

    Replies: @Pharmakon, @A123

    You’re giving me no indicators but Twitter-“expert”-level “arguments”.
    Are you, by any chance, one them know-it-all people who “grew up with the Internet”?

    Be more precise: how many planes, AFVs, MRLS’, etc each respective side had lost and what percentage do these loses represent out of the respective party’s total strength? Does the VSU have the operational initiative on any of the decisive fronts?

    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a “Wenck’s XII Army” surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?

    OT. The Ukrainians, too, are Russian, so I never expected them not to give their brothers a good fight. But this is melodramatic and it has nothing to do with the vast power-differential between the two parties.

    •�Replies: @Wielgus
    @Pharmakon

    Zelensky screaming for a no-fly zone while saying the West wants Ukrainians to be killed is not the behaviour of someone who expects to win - in fact he is behaving more like Hitler in Downfall than Putin is. The Ukrainians topping one of their own negotiators and then being conflicted on whether he was a hero or a traitor does not suggest much institutional strength.

    Replies: @A123, @Pharmakon
    , @Boethiuss
    @Pharmakon


    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a “Wenck’s XII Army” surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?
    If that does happen it will probably be because the Russian army makes little or no progress in theater in Ukraine, while at the same time due to the sanctions Russian domestic morale is low and their economic capacity is diminished to the point where they can sustain their manpower commitments and field operations.

    Replies: @Beckow
  351. They will start secondary sanctions on Chinese businesses and financial institutions, and then tertiary (!) sanctions on whoever doing business amicably with them, to kickstart hard decoupling from China.

    A 2nd repeat of the American oil embargo on Japan in 1939.

    •�Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    What's the chance China will put the Ukrainian government backed by Russia on the negotiation table, instead of the Zelensky's government-of-exile, when Kiev falls? Will determine if China gets hostile sanctions like Russia had in 2014.
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1501298833627791360

    The sanctions trap just got pushed forward. (Use proxies.)
  352. Adept says:
    @Abelard Lindsey
    The Chinese may well broker an end to the Russian/Ukrainian war. The Chinese buy as much technical gear (jet engines, specialized alloys, etc) from the Ukrainians as they do natural resources from the Russians. The last thing the Chinese need is for both of these suppliers to destroy each other in a pointless war. The Chinese deal to end the war may even include a common market that would include both Russia and Ukraine that many other countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran, SE Asia, and many other might seek to enter. This kind of deal would preferentially favor all of the Chinese competitors to all of the Western companies that have stopped doing business. As such, these Western companies will be at a severe disadvantage in trying to re-enter any of these market following the end of the war. I also believe that part of the deal for ending the war will include the permanent expulsion and exclusion of all Western NGO's, including those of George Soros, Bill Gates, and Klaus Schwab from this common market.

    The reason why I think this will happen is because it would be a major diplomatic coup for China, relative to the West (particularly the bozos in Washington DC). It would also help elevate China as the top economic and technological power in the world. This is precisely the kind of deal I would be working on if I were Xi Jinping.

    Replies: @Adept

    The Chinese may well broker an end to the Russian/Ukrainian war. The Chinese buy as much technical gear (jet engines, specialized alloys, etc) from the Ukrainians as they do natural resources from the Russians.

    That is incorrect.

    https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr

    Ukraine’s exports are mostly non-technical. Their top exports to China are raw ore, corn, vegetables, and seed oil. It’s true that they exported \$30M of aircraft parts to China in 2019, but this is a small amount — certainly insignificant on a geopolitical scale.

    Besides, Ukraine’s technical and metallurgical factories are quite possibly rubble by now. So it’s not like China can broker a deal and resume receiving aircraft parts from Ukraine immediately thereafter. It’ll be years until Ukraine is back on its feet.

  353. @Yellowface Anon
    https://twitter.com/henrysgao/status/1501055353785511939

    They will start secondary sanctions on Chinese businesses and financial institutions, and then tertiary (!) sanctions on whoever doing business amicably with them, to kickstart hard decoupling from China.

    A 2nd repeat of the American oil embargo on Japan in 1939.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon

    What’s the chance China will put the Ukrainian government backed by Russia on the negotiation table, instead of the Zelensky’s government-of-exile, when Kiev falls? Will determine if China gets hostile sanctions like Russia had in 2014.

  354. @songbird
    Some people are saying that there is no way that GAE could take over Russia, even if it surrendered, but Ukraine seems remarkably woke, on a GDP per capita basis. On a dollar to dollar basis, it would make Ireland (super-woke in reality), with its corporate tax haven structure, seem based.

    BTW, are Russian or Chinese or Moldovan universities as enriched? Wonder what the cost differential is.

    Something makes me very suspicious when I see all those non-Euro faces in Ukraine, even if they are there for university. At a minimum, I bet a lot of them are being sponsored, in order to help transform the culture. You change the environment of the universities and that is a big input on the elites. But, I also suspect that it is being used as a springboard to invade Western Europe. Maybe, teaching English. Giving people the phony credentials needed, to help facilitate the lie that it is desirable to have them immigrate.

    Replies: @Coconuts

    Some people are saying that there is no way that GAE could take over Russia, even if it surrendered, but Ukraine seems remarkably woke, on a GDP per capita basis. On a dollar to dollar basis, it would make Ireland (super-woke in reality), with its corporate tax haven structure, seem based.

    Imo it’s harder to gauge in post-Soviet countries because of legacy socialist progressivism, which had a certain level of overlap with liberal progressivism and now the Woke New Left stuff.

    From what I can tell worship of blacks and idealised oppressed noble savage archetypes is much more minimal and doesn’t really exist as a cultural trope yet, so there is an obvious difference with how things are in Anglo culture at the moment.

    •�Replies: @songbird
    @Coconuts


    Imo it’s harder to gauge in post-Soviet countries because of legacy socialist progressivism, which had a certain level of overlap with liberal progressivism and now the Woke New Left stuff.
    What really amazes me is the gay stuff. Like, Zelensky did a comedy skit where he was wearing a gay S&M costume and playing a gay with other men dressed similarly.

    What year was that? I am not sure. And I don't know how to manipulate these economic factors to do a good, technical comparisons, but Ukraine's per capita GDP now is about the same as Russia's was at the year the Soviet Union ended.

    Now that is admittedly a very rough comparison, and not apples to apples, but one could also compare it to other countries today, on a nominal basis.

    Mongolia, Indonesia, and El Salvador are above Ukraine in per capita. The next three lower are Egypt, Sri Lanka, and Djibouti. When I saw the fourth, I did not recognize it, had to look it up - apparently Swaziland has changed its name. I'm not very knowledgeable about any of these places, but has any flown a giant rainbow flag? I'd guess not.

    Maybe, it is just the regime signaling subservience to American power, or the EU. But, even so, it seems really strange and noteworthy, and it is hard to try to think through all the implications.
  355. A123 says: •�Website
    @mal
    @Thulean Friend


    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.
    It's funny but I think the pessimists are right on this one at least in the short term.

    The "swiss cheese" comment is silly because there's a lot of self sanctioning going on. Even if only a few Russian banks got banned, in reality, this means the whole banking system. Due to counter party risk all of Russian assets are deemed toxic.

    It doesn't mean the end of the world though. Ruble resumed devaluation that i expected which is needed to save Russian balance of payments. This is important because we are about to enter Great Depression 2.0 and demand for commodities will slump. Russia is profiting now, but it won't be forever. Devaluation is the key part of long term strategy and if it doesn't happen Russia is screwed.

    With attack on CBR reserves, eurodollar is done. In the upcoming depression, ex-US world will be unable to pay off USD denominated debt and will default. Meanwhile, US will be forced to print dozens of $trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90's for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don't see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.

    The end game though is well worth it as bilateral trade agreements will emerge from the ruins of the eurodollar system. The planet will taste freedom and sovereignty for the first time since 19th century. US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated

    The € EuroZone [EZ] was a mistake from Day 1. Multinational MegaCorporations liked the idea, but it flew in the face of history. A currency union without a fiscal union is inherently unstable. The € will be devastated, destroying over leveraged financial institutions, such as DeutscheBank and CreditAgricole. Countries & countries highly dependant on foreign export markets will lose badly when sovereign currencies resume.

    Where I diverge from your prediction is, “What happens after the EU ends?” There will be genuine winners that are currently being held back by Brussels. Poland will immediately gain by junking global warming mythology. Cheap electricity will power its economy. Greece and Italy are victims of EZ austerity policies. Their national economies will rebound when the EU and € go away.

    US will be forced to print dozens of \$trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.

    US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.

    One of the facets of MAGA Reindustrialization is fixing this over emphasis on services. The U.S. is both food and energy independent. Main Street America will be much stronger via:

    — Extracting & refining additional raw materials (including rare earth elements).
    — Creating finished products for domestic consumers using domestic labor.

    MegaCorporations that depend on undercutting U.S. wages via migration and outsourcing will be crushed. Having a strong bubble that protects citizens and local industries from predatory nations is a winning policy.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Agree: mal
  356. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack

    Mixed, noting that these are mostly media/foreign policy intelligentsia types. Those seeing a basis do so without any kind of comfort. Nothing like Poroshenko saying that "their" (Donbass rebel inhabited) kids will be in cellars getting bombed while ours are free and going to school.

    Whatever happened to Nadiya Savchenko, if I correctly recall her name?. Her image went down around the time she acknowledged Kiev regime fault-lines in Donbass.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I don’t know anything about Nadiya Savchenko, but I’m very impressed with the outpouring of support shown for the Ukrainian side in this war. Over 16,000 (and still counting) volunteers from all corners of the world have come to help fight the war against Russian aggression:

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    Another brave American who has volunteered to help the Ukrainian cause:

    https://youtu.be/pMjNVJyRzdo
  357. @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    I don't know anything about Nadiya Savchenko, but I'm very impressed with the outpouring of support shown for the Ukrainian side in this war. Over 16,000 (and still counting) volunteers from all corners of the world have come to help fight the war against Russian aggression:

    https://youtu.be/4WsIkf30Vok

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Another brave American who has volunteered to help the Ukrainian cause:

  358. A123 says: •�Website
    @Boethiuss
    @Pharmakon


    Might I ask what indicators are you seeing that are suggesting this won’t be a decisive Russian victory?
    A week ago at this time the Russian invasion had stalled, resupply was failing, Russia was losing planes, helos and men, etc, etc. But, well you gotta understand Russia has only committed 30% of its amassed force inside Ukraine. Ok then.

    Now, it's a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there's not been much progress since then.

    That's an indicator this won't be a decisive Russian victory.

    Replies: @Pharmakon, @A123

    Now, it’s a week later and Russia has committed 90% of its mobilized forces in theater inside Ukraine, and there’s not been much progress since then.

    That’s an indicator this won’t be a decisive Russian victory.

    It is an indicator that Russia is not rushing headlong into a mistake. The amount of material being moved by truck is quite high. I have not seen any solid explanation why Russian forces are using an unexpectedly low amount of rail transport.

    Also, levelling Kiev is a LOSE-LOSE proposition. That level of force will inflame public opinion abroad. There is still hope for negotiations during the logistics build-up period.
    _____

    Israel has stepped up to the plate with Its own efforts at mediating a peace deal: (1)

    Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett—not just any leader but Israel’s first Orthodox one—boarded a plane for Moscow on Saturday, it was clear something unusual was afoot. Halakhic exceptions are granted only when lives are at stake.

    Bennett met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for three hours at the Kremlin and then flew to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Israeli leader is depicting the trip as a bid to mediate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, two countries with long-standing political and cultural ties to Israel. Bennett has also spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several times by phone in recent days and with French President Emmanuel Macron

    Bennett told his cabinet on Sunday, hours after his return to Israel. “Even if the chance is not great—as soon as there is even a small opening, and we have access to all sides and the capability—I see this as our moral obligation to make every effort.”

    The meeting in Moscow was the first between Putin and a Western leader since Russia sent troops into Ukraine last month. Although Bennett would seem like an unlikely mediator—he’s held office for less than a year and remains largely untested—he is one of the few world leaders with open channels to all sides of the Ukraine conflict.

    There is still an opportunity for Zelensky to negotiate an end to this conflict.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/07/israel-ukraine-mediation-russia-bennett-putin/

  359. @mal
    @Thulean Friend


    I am now seeing estimates of up to a 20% GDP collapse. This is wishful thinking. Not even half that will happen, and most of the GDP fall this year will be one-off transition costs as Russians cut ties with the West in a range of sectors.
    It's funny but I think the pessimists are right on this one at least in the short term.

    The "swiss cheese" comment is silly because there's a lot of self sanctioning going on. Even if only a few Russian banks got banned, in reality, this means the whole banking system. Due to counter party risk all of Russian assets are deemed toxic.

    It doesn't mean the end of the world though. Ruble resumed devaluation that i expected which is needed to save Russian balance of payments. This is important because we are about to enter Great Depression 2.0 and demand for commodities will slump. Russia is profiting now, but it won't be forever. Devaluation is the key part of long term strategy and if it doesn't happen Russia is screwed.

    With attack on CBR reserves, eurodollar is done. In the upcoming depression, ex-US world will be unable to pay off USD denominated debt and will default. Meanwhile, US will be forced to print dozens of $trillions to save its own economy. But because 80% of US economy is services, none of those dollars will make it to save the ex-US eurodollar world.

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90's for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don't see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.

    The end game though is well worth it as bilateral trade agreements will emerge from the ruins of the eurodollar system. The planet will taste freedom and sovereignty for the first time since 19th century. US will continue to exist in its own bubble for a while longer.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90’s for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don’t see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.

    If you know what is going to happen you are smarter than any person who ever lived!

    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?

    Just kidding. : )

    The bit about Newton is true but he had a good job so he didn’t become a homeless person or anything.

    •�Thanks: Mr. Hack
    •�Replies: @silviosilver
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?
    Actually, I did know that. He supposedly (one must be cautious about these attributions) and very memorably remarked of his losses, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men."

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  360. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Barbarossa

    No it's ODS.
    https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Oliver_D._Smith

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Too bad. I figured it was a low chance of accuracy but I liked the way my theory sounded.

    Oliver D. Smith seems like a very special character. If you are finding yourself shadowed on the internet and trolled by such a lowlife, you have my sincerest condolences.

  361. @Pharmakon
    @Boethiuss

    You're giving me no indicators but Twitter-"expert"-level "arguments".
    Are you, by any chance, one them know-it-all people who "grew up with the Internet"?

    Be more precise: how many planes, AFVs, MRLS', etc each respective side had lost and what percentage do these loses represent out of the respective party's total strength? Does the VSU have the operational initiative on any of the decisive fronts?

    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a "Wenck's XII Army" surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?

    OT. The Ukrainians, too, are Russian, so I never expected them not to give their brothers a good fight. But this is melodramatic and it has nothing to do with the vast power-differential between the two parties.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Boethiuss

    Zelensky screaming for a no-fly zone while saying the West wants Ukrainians to be killed is not the behaviour of someone who expects to win – in fact he is behaving more like Hitler in Downfall than Putin is. The Ukrainians topping one of their own negotiators and then being conflicted on whether he was a hero or a traitor does not suggest much institutional strength.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @Wielgus

    Zelensky is rhetoricially backing away from NATO (1)

    Zelensky in the newly published ABC interview for the first time since the war began on Feb.24 issued a significantly toned down rhetoric on the question of future NATO membership:

    "Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. We never wanted to be a country that is begging for something on its knees, and we are not going to be that country and I don’t want to be that president."

    However, Russia is still pushing for something difficult to obtain:

    Kremlin issued updated demands saying it would halt all military operations if Ukraine agreed to the following: recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, acknowledged the statehood of Donetsk and Luhansk, and importantly to update the Ukrainian constitution barring entry into external military alliances (namely NATO).
    The trick is going to be finding something that:
    -- Putin will accept
    -- Zelensky can deliver

    Amending the Ukrainian Constitution probably exceeds what Zelensky can achieve.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-8

    Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Pharmakon
    @Wielgus

    Of course. The institutional breakdown and admission of defeat became obvious at the very beginning of the Russian campaign, when the UKR regime started handing out rifles to everyone and their dog. Killing and arresting your own negotiators does not project much institutional cohesion, either. Operationally, the VSU had lost all initiative and had it's main bodies fixed by the end of day 5, so it was already clear that there is Zero chance of a militarily-favorable outcome for the Ukraine.

    I give the West and its Ukrainian pupils one thing, though: they've totally succeeded in creating a parallel, meta-reality which works amazingly-well for the Corona-conditioned Western populace. This is all nice and dandy but, at the end of the day, reality trumps meta-reality.
  362. @Boethiuss
    @songbird


    I think that lying as a matter of course, even when it’s not necessary, and being incapable of conducting military operations effectively are probably related to each other in a deep sense. Strelkov is exasperated and even Colonelcassad cannot hide growing signs of anxiety. Only the likes of Saker, Martyanov and, surprisingly, also AK pretend at this stage that things are going according to plan. I still think that Russia, true to tradition, will somehow manage to win this war with great losses and sacrifices but even with the cakewalk victory announced by AK, it was never clear how Putin was going to implement his political objectives. With the fierce resistance shown by the Ukrainians on all fronts, I see them impossible to achieve.
    Yeah, this is an important paragraph. As I understand it, the current Karlin line is to say, "Yeah, Ukrainian resistance has been stronger than we thought, and Russian army performance has been poorer than we thought but ultimately it doesn't make any difference. At the end of the day Russia is much stronger than Ukraine and will deploy whatever resources are required to win."

    There are quite a number of smart people who think this, and not all of them are Russophiles. And this is certainly well within the realm of possibility, but I'm still skeptical.

    The basic reality of the war as it stands is that Russia has made little if any progress over the last week. It controls only a small percentage of the territory of Ukraine. Most of the part that it does control were already being contested on its behalf by separatist groups. The logistics of the Russian army are horrible. And they are routinely losing control of previously held military objectives.

    And one thing that's so mind-boggling it's still hard for me to get my head around: Russia still does not have air supremacy in theater. They barely have air advantage, and maybe not even that. It's ten days into the war and the Ukrainian air force and Ukrainian air defense is still operational and effective.

    A week ago, I wouldn't have believed the idea that the Russian army would straight-up militarily lose to the Ukrainians. It's not at all ridiculous now.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    •�Replies: @sudden death
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Neither Crimea nor Donetsk/Lugansk area are newly taken grounds of 2022, so optically it looks bit misleading.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @Boethiuss
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.
    Yeah, I think we are. Your map is more generous to the Russians than what I have seen, but in any event the basic story is the same. Russia has Donbass, Luhansk, the Black Sea coast except Odessa, and a little bit of territory north of Kiev. That's it.

    There doesn't seem to be any meaningful prospect of a Russian advance and in fact it appears Russia is at least as likely to lose territory that it controls as opposed to gain territory that it doesn't (which btw, is probably a large part of the discrepancies among the various maps).

    That leaves a trillion square miles of Ukrainian territory where Ukraine has uncontested control. Ukraine has overland supply routes from Poland (maybe Hungary and maybe Slovakia as well, but Poland for sure) and the whole world willing to resupply them.

    I can't see any way this is supposed to be comparable to the Confederate army in 1865.

    Replies: @Beckow
    , @AP
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It’s a fake map; Russian forces have advanced along some main roads but don’t control all that territory between those roads. At best you can claim that territory as contested.

    By 1865, the Union had captured Atlanta and Savannah, splitting the Confederacy in two. Russia has only captured one oblast capital, a small one near Crimea.

    So far, this war resembles the Winter War in Finland, where the Soviets slowly seized lands while losing large numbers of men and equipment. For Russia, this war will be a race to see how much they will advance before they finally run out of soldiers and equipment. I doubt they can grab all of Ukraine before that happens but it is possible and even likely that cities near the border such as Kharkiv or Chernihiv may fall. Kiev would be a long battle.

    So far, Ukraine has inflicted many more vehicle losses on Russia than vice versa. The rate does not exceed the discrepancy between vehicle numbers, however, which means that at the current rate both sides will run out of vehicles at about the same time. If it becomes a war of infantry, Russia will be at a disadvantage. Ukrainian infantry is equal if not better than Russian in terms of training, motivation, and equipment. Remember when Russians were laughing at Ukrainian territorial defence forces training with wooden guns? Or when they laughed at the article I posted that said that Ukrainians would be having a field day with Russian tanks and APCs using all their javelins and NLAWs? Who is laughing now? How is the 7 day cakewalk?

    Russia already has something like 70% or 75% of its total usable forces in Ukraine, so this will be it. I’m not predicting who will win because Russia may very well have enough to slog through most of Ukraine - but as I predicted this will be a lot harder for Russia than Russian fanboys assumed it would have been. And Ukrainians do have a chance of winning, their struggle is far from a hopeless and suicidal one.

    If it ends like Finland we can expect Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    If Russia manages to take and keep Odessa, I wonder if Gdańsk will repeat its role from the PLC days as the port for all that Ukrainian grain.

    Replies: @AP, @tamako, @Beckow
  363. @Mr. Hack
    @Mikhail

    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don't understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I'll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?

    https://youtu.be/fLcHPV-X_Xo

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib

    It would have been interesting to see in The Sun similar images of civilian victims in the Donbass.

    Selective indignation is hypocrisy.

    •�Agree: Mikel
    •�Replies: @Wielgus
    @Aedib

    A Russian site showed photos of what looked like the same woman, hale and hearty and in one clutching an assault rifle as part of a nationalist militia. She had a much shorter hairdo, suggesting that that is a wig in the "wounded" photo. True or not, I don't recall Western newspapers splashing photos of wounded civilians in say, Yemen or Palestine with such aplomb.
    , @AP
    @Aedib

    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas. Of these IIRC 15 were killed in rebel territory (by Kiev’s forces) and 3 by rebels. These deaths were typically the result of shooting out of civilian areas and return fire. These deaths were rare.

    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine due an invasion totally of Russia’s making. Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings. But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee. Here, an elderly couple were shot in their car at close range;



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501163159138275331?s=21

    Replies: @Pharmakon
  364. @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    Of course I condemn the indiscriminate carnage against Donbas rebel civilian inhabitants. But that sort of thing lessened more and more as time went on. I don’t understand how recreating these tragedies by the other side on a much larger scale today results in anything positive, do you?

    Therefore, I’ll ask you one more time, and ask you to give a straight-up forthright answer to this question:

    Do you support the vicious Russian assault on Ukraine by Russia, including the killing of civilian Ukrainian inhabitants?
    From top to bottom regarding the above - regime forces increased in number near the rebels, with continued shelling and fatality from that side which has been greater than the other way around. All this happening as the regime for the past 7 years did nothing to begin implementing the UN approved Minsk Protocol for a Donbass autonomy settlement.

    Neocon-neolib influenced US government hypocritically sanctions Russia, while not doing likewise with the Kiev regime.

    Zelensky won the presidency on a platform for better Russo-Ukrainian relations and an end to the Donbass conflict. In office, he bans cultural arrangements with the Hermitage and some other Russian venues, while propping the Neo-Nazis.

    Israelis, Americans, Russians, whatever, war involving civilian areas inevitably lead to civilian casualties which I've never gloated over.

    There was a valid way to prevent this and one still evident. Clint Ehrlich said something that I surmised. Putin apparently calculated that the NATOization of Ukraine was expanding to the point that it needed to get nipped in the butt sooner rather than later. Recall the rational for what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WW II.

    As I earlier advocated for ending the conflict sooner rather than later, in a way that supports an end to killing:

    - Ukraine formally becomes neutral, with a limited military capability and gets back all of Donbass as a loose affiliate, while recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Along with the rest of the former Ukrainian SSR (minus Crimea, which has seen vast improvement since reunifying with Russia), Donbass is given an economic sweetener to go along with this arrangement.

    - Quite possibly, a similar scenario can be reached with Georgia. Given an economic sweetener, Abkhazia and South Ossetia become very loosely affiliated with an economically sweetened Georgia, in exchange for a neutral Georgia.

    - Georgia and Ukraine can join the EU, while being barred NATO membership, in accordance with international agreements, noting that the expansion of one military alliance shouldn't sacrifice the security of another country.

    - In turn, the hypocritically warped sanctions against Russia (influenced by Western governments) end (including the blatantly bigoted ones in sports and culture), preferably with cooler Western establishment heads acknowledging the arrogantly, ignorant, hypocritical and in some instances bigoted stances taken against Russia/Russians.

    - NATO and Russia further discuss their differences.

    If implemented, this plan serves to improve the global economy.

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media. Moscow can start by reviewing some of the people they've utilized from the West (Liz Wahl, et al) over others (ahem). Making the same mistakes are counterproductive.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mikel

    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media.

    From what I’ve seen in the past week, giving Ramzan Kadyrov a senior role in the information sphere would mark an improvement.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @Wielgus
    @Mikel

    His statements in Russian media operate well at the stupid level, but then so do a lot of the Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian statements. Effective propaganda is often visceral and would not stand up to a moment of actual analysis. His complaint that Chechens can't catch Banderists and "Satans" because they run too fast is a good example.
    , @Pharmakon
    @Mikel

    Yes, it's quite amazing to see how low-budget propaganda messaging produced by (of all people) Caucasian hillbillies, is vastly more successful with certain demographics than are money sinkholes such as RT.

    Replies: @Wielgus
  365. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Boethiuss

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/isw_map-2.png

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Boethiuss, @AP

    Neither Crimea nor Donetsk/Lugansk area are newly taken grounds of 2022, so optically it looks bit misleading.

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @sudden death

    good point
  366. @sudden death
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Neither Crimea nor Donetsk/Lugansk area are newly taken grounds of 2022, so optically it looks bit misleading.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    good point

  367. @Thulean Friend
    @Mikel


    it would be interesting to see how AK explains his failed predictions of a cakewalk, mass surrenders, serious resistance ending in less than a week and the fall of Kiev a few days after the start of hostilities.
    1. Rapid revisionism on Twitter.
    2. Pretend what you said previously never happened.
    3. Hope nobody notices.
    4. Get enraged when called out.


    This is the pattern we've already seen.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  368. @Aedib
    @Mr. Hack

    It would have been interesting to see in The Sun similar images of civilian victims in the Donbass.

    Selective indignation is hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @AP

    A Russian site showed photos of what looked like the same woman, hale and hearty and in one clutching an assault rifle as part of a nationalist militia. She had a much shorter hairdo, suggesting that that is a wig in the “wounded” photo. True or not, I don’t recall Western newspapers splashing photos of wounded civilians in say, Yemen or Palestine with such aplomb.

  369. @Pharmakon
    @Boethiuss

    You're giving me no indicators but Twitter-"expert"-level "arguments".
    Are you, by any chance, one them know-it-all people who "grew up with the Internet"?

    Be more precise: how many planes, AFVs, MRLS', etc each respective side had lost and what percentage do these loses represent out of the respective party's total strength? Does the VSU have the operational initiative on any of the decisive fronts?

    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a "Wenck's XII Army" surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?

    OT. The Ukrainians, too, are Russian, so I never expected them not to give their brothers a good fight. But this is melodramatic and it has nothing to do with the vast power-differential between the two parties.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Boethiuss

    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a “Wenck’s XII Army” surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?

    If that does happen it will probably be because the Russian army makes little or no progress in theater in Ukraine, while at the same time due to the sanctions Russian domestic morale is low and their economic capacity is diminished to the point where they can sustain their manpower commitments and field operations.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    We cannot evaluate progress without knowing the objectives. Russia's stated objectives:
    - Demilitarization of Ukraine - mostly done, but could be reversed
    - Ukraine not in NATO - done
    - Denazification - mostly for PR
    - Security for Donetsk-Lugansk - almost done, but will take months to consolidate
    - Crimea in Russia - de facto for 8 years, de jure is symbolic.

    Russia has specifically said that they don't want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense - expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call "stalling action" could be "ending, because they are almost done".

    Russia will probably use the war to take control of most of the Black See coast. That would strengthen their strategic situation and would make it easy to block Ukraine inland. They will also keep on destroying weapons depots, air-fields, etc...

    This looks similar to what Izrael does, or what Russia did in Georgia. They go in, achieve their objectives, don't take any responsibility, move on. We may be better off than all the apocalyptic scenarios.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Dmitry
  370. @Mikel
    @Mikhail


    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media.
    From what I've seen in the past week, giving Ramzan Kadyrov a senior role in the information sphere would mark an improvement.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Pharmakon

    His statements in Russian media operate well at the stupid level, but then so do a lot of the Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian statements. Effective propaganda is often visceral and would not stand up to a moment of actual analysis. His complaint that Chechens can’t catch Banderists and “Satans” because they run too fast is a good example.

  371. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Boethiuss

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/isw_map-2.png

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Boethiuss, @AP

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    Yeah, I think we are. Your map is more generous to the Russians than what I have seen, but in any event the basic story is the same. Russia has Donbass, Luhansk, the Black Sea coast except Odessa, and a little bit of territory north of Kiev. That’s it.

    There doesn’t seem to be any meaningful prospect of a Russian advance and in fact it appears Russia is at least as likely to lose territory that it controls as opposed to gain territory that it doesn’t (which btw, is probably a large part of the discrepancies among the various maps).

    That leaves a trillion square miles of Ukrainian territory where Ukraine has uncontested control. Ukraine has overland supply routes from Poland (maybe Hungary and maybe Slovakia as well, but Poland for sure) and the whole world willing to resupply them.

    I can’t see any way this is supposed to be comparable to the Confederate army in 1865.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more - it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.

    If Russia achieves it objectives, what happens next? You can't fight a guerilla war if there is no occupation for most of Ukraine. The parts of Ukraine that Russia will control are in the friendly Russian speaking areas - some mayhem will happen, but in the open flat country along Black See that will be limited.

    The real change will happen in the rump Ukraine: destroyed military assets, no access to the see, loss of arable lands and Donbas industry, no prospect to be in NATO (or EU), and a Damocles sword hanging over them of more bombing any time. Dependence on EU handouts, poverty and mass emigration.

    Russia and Europe will suffer economically but will recover; Russia more oriented on China and the south, Europe more on US. Was this worth the stubborn refusal by NATO and Bidens-Macrons to acknowledge that Ukraine will not be in NATO? They thought they will call Russia's bluff, now we know better.

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  372. @Boethiuss
    @Pharmakon


    How do you foresee Russian defeat materializing? Running out of troops and war-gear while the Ukrainians are being constantly replenished with fuel, tanks, planes and, most importantly, operationally-capable units? Perhaps, the VSU will pull a “Wenck’s XII Army” surprise on those pesky Russians at the very last moment? Even more interesting, how do you see a Ukrainian victory emerging?
    If that does happen it will probably be because the Russian army makes little or no progress in theater in Ukraine, while at the same time due to the sanctions Russian domestic morale is low and their economic capacity is diminished to the point where they can sustain their manpower commitments and field operations.

    Replies: @Beckow

    We cannot evaluate progress without knowing the objectives. Russia’s stated objectives:
    – Demilitarization of Ukraine – mostly done, but could be reversed
    – Ukraine not in NATO – done
    – Denazification – mostly for PR
    – Security for Donetsk-Lugansk – almost done, but will take months to consolidate
    – Crimea in Russia – de facto for 8 years, de jure is symbolic.

    Russia has specifically said that they don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense – expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call “stalling action” could be “ending, because they are almost done“.

    Russia will probably use the war to take control of most of the Black See coast. That would strengthen their strategic situation and would make it easy to block Ukraine inland. They will also keep on destroying weapons depots, air-fields, etc…

    This looks similar to what Izrael does, or what Russia did in Georgia. They go in, achieve their objectives, don’t take any responsibility, move on. We may be better off than all the apocalyptic scenarios.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    Russia has specifically said that they don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense – expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call “stalling action” could be “ending, because they are almost done“.
    That would be a better situation that what we have now, that's for sure. I wish it were viable but I don't think it is.

    Among other things, it contradicts what Putin has told Macron his war aims are. It also contradicts the Russian battle plan. If the Russian war aims primarily had to do with Donbass/Luhansk/Crimea, it should not have attacked Kiev, which took most of the world by surprise, including me.

    Speaking for Russia as a nation, it's reasonable to say that it's best move right this second is to declare victory and go home. Unfortunately for Russia, that doesn't remove the sanctions against it. But it does remove the instigating cause of those sanctions, and at least give Russian diplomats the possibility of reestablishing trust in the hope that animosities could die down and over the course of time the Russian economy might recover.

    But for exactly this reason though, I don't think it works for Putin. He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation. I don't think that's a formula for Putin to stay in power, and maybe not even stay alive.

    Replies: @Beckow
    , @Dmitry
    @Beckow

    Its original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back (kind of "We have only to kick in the door" attitude).

    We know they do not expect much fighting back in the planning, because otherwise you would not throw Tigr or BMD inside the cities.

    BMD is a metal coffin and Tigr is just a car made by Deripaska. These are not suitable for urban warfare, if you expect resistance.

    Even in December 1994, they do no put BMDs into the cities, even then they expect more resistance in Grozny. And in December 1994, they enter Grozny not prepared for serious urban war.

    But in 2022, they drive into the center of Kharkov with Tigr vehicles. It's more suitable riot controlling, than urban warfare.

    So, we know planning was indeed for a light resistance with some kind of liberation.


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497834839634067460

    similar to what Izrael does,
    Israel tried to do regime-change of Lebanon in 1982 with 80,000 soldiers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War), in a similar invasion to this one.

    When the PLO is operating in Lebanon during its civil war, Israel invades Lebanon, occupied Beirut, to try to do regime change.

    After regime-change operation failed in 1982, they then occupy Southern Lebanon. Israel then occupies South Lebanon for 18 years, where eventually they exit in 2000. After ending of occupation of South Lebanon, Hezbollah has replaced its own power on territory Israel had occupied.

    In addition, to failing to achieve regime-change, reducing security in the multi-decade horizon, such failed military objectives, also contributed to militarization of Israeli culture, psychological brutalization of the Israeli population, and an increasing international isolation.

    -
    To go offtopic, there is a good anime film on YouTube ("Waltz with Bashir") about these themes of Israel's invasion of Lebanon, which reminds of this war in Ukraine today.

    Teenagers thrown into Beirut, without understanding the operation, kill civilians.

    At 20:00 a scene of killing a family in a car, was already recreated many times in Ukraine, where many civilians have been killed while driving in cars.

    This is television reporter in the invasion of Beirut at 56:45 in the film Ron Ben-Yishai, is currently in Kiev at the moment interviewing people for clips. Hopefully, Kiev will not become the next Beirut of 1982.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9h7vIJ3Bik

    Replies: @Beckow
  373. A123 says: •�Website
    @Wielgus
    @Pharmakon

    Zelensky screaming for a no-fly zone while saying the West wants Ukrainians to be killed is not the behaviour of someone who expects to win - in fact he is behaving more like Hitler in Downfall than Putin is. The Ukrainians topping one of their own negotiators and then being conflicted on whether he was a hero or a traitor does not suggest much institutional strength.

    Replies: @A123, @Pharmakon

    Zelensky is rhetoricially backing away from NATO (1)

    Zelensky in the newly published ABC interview for the first time since the war began on Feb.24 issued a significantly toned down rhetoric on the question of future NATO membership:

    “Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. We never wanted to be a country that is begging for something on its knees, and we are not going to be that country and I don’t want to be that president.”

    However, Russia is still pushing for something difficult to obtain:

    Kremlin issued updated demands saying it would halt all military operations if Ukraine agreed to the following: recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, acknowledged the statehood of Donetsk and Luhansk, and importantly to update the Ukrainian constitution barring entry into external military alliances (namely NATO).

    The trick is going to be finding something that:
    — Putin will accept
    — Zelensky can deliver

    Amending the Ukrainian Constitution probably exceeds what Zelensky can achieve.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-8

    •�Replies: @Wielgus
    @A123

    He is also suggesting some flexibility on Crimea and Donbass, which he was not doing before. This is good but hardly suggests Ukraine is winning. Donbass are a bunch of terrorists, according to Ukraine.
  374. @Boethiuss
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.
    Yeah, I think we are. Your map is more generous to the Russians than what I have seen, but in any event the basic story is the same. Russia has Donbass, Luhansk, the Black Sea coast except Odessa, and a little bit of territory north of Kiev. That's it.

    There doesn't seem to be any meaningful prospect of a Russian advance and in fact it appears Russia is at least as likely to lose territory that it controls as opposed to gain territory that it doesn't (which btw, is probably a large part of the discrepancies among the various maps).

    That leaves a trillion square miles of Ukrainian territory where Ukraine has uncontested control. Ukraine has overland supply routes from Poland (maybe Hungary and maybe Slovakia as well, but Poland for sure) and the whole world willing to resupply them.

    I can't see any way this is supposed to be comparable to the Confederate army in 1865.

    Replies: @Beckow

    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.

    If Russia achieves it objectives, what happens next? You can’t fight a guerilla war if there is no occupation for most of Ukraine. The parts of Ukraine that Russia will control are in the friendly Russian speaking areas – some mayhem will happen, but in the open flat country along Black See that will be limited.

    The real change will happen in the rump Ukraine: destroyed military assets, no access to the see, loss of arable lands and Donbas industry, no prospect to be in NATO (or EU), and a Damocles sword hanging over them of more bombing any time. Dependence on EU handouts, poverty and mass emigration.

    Russia and Europe will suffer economically but will recover; Russia more oriented on China and the south, Europe more on US. Was this worth the stubborn refusal by NATO and Bidens-Macrons to acknowledge that Ukraine will not be in NATO? They thought they will call Russia’s bluff, now we know better.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.
    No no. At the end of the US Civil War, the Confederates had no artillery, no men, and no food (and no money). None of those things apply to Ukraine.

    Though, early in the war the Confederates thought they would get help from the Continental powers because they, the Confederates, thought Europe needed Southern cotton more than it did. Which, come to think of it, reminds me quite a bit of the Karlin/Beckow overestimations of Russia's economic leverage here.

    Replies: @A123
  375. @Wielgus
    @Pharmakon

    Zelensky screaming for a no-fly zone while saying the West wants Ukrainians to be killed is not the behaviour of someone who expects to win - in fact he is behaving more like Hitler in Downfall than Putin is. The Ukrainians topping one of their own negotiators and then being conflicted on whether he was a hero or a traitor does not suggest much institutional strength.

    Replies: @A123, @Pharmakon

    Of course. The institutional breakdown and admission of defeat became obvious at the very beginning of the Russian campaign, when the UKR regime started handing out rifles to everyone and their dog. Killing and arresting your own negotiators does not project much institutional cohesion, either. Operationally, the VSU had lost all initiative and had it’s main bodies fixed by the end of day 5, so it was already clear that there is Zero chance of a militarily-favorable outcome for the Ukraine.

    I give the West and its Ukrainian pupils one thing, though: they’ve totally succeeded in creating a parallel, meta-reality which works amazingly-well for the Corona-conditioned Western populace. This is all nice and dandy but, at the end of the day, reality trumps meta-reality.

    •�Agree: Wielgus
  376. @Mikel
    @Mikhail


    Along the way, Russia improves at Western English language PR and media.
    From what I've seen in the past week, giving Ramzan Kadyrov a senior role in the information sphere would mark an improvement.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Pharmakon

    Yes, it’s quite amazing to see how low-budget propaganda messaging produced by (of all people) Caucasian hillbillies, is vastly more successful with certain demographics than are money sinkholes such as RT.

    •�Replies: @Wielgus
    @Pharmakon

    Kadyrov's comment reminded me of the chant "We had joy, we had fun we had (insert target group here) on the run, but the fun couldn't last 'cos the bastards ran too fast." Stupid but a memorable taunt. And good propaganda.
  377. @A123
    @Wielgus

    Zelensky is rhetoricially backing away from NATO (1)

    Zelensky in the newly published ABC interview for the first time since the war began on Feb.24 issued a significantly toned down rhetoric on the question of future NATO membership:

    "Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. We never wanted to be a country that is begging for something on its knees, and we are not going to be that country and I don’t want to be that president."

    However, Russia is still pushing for something difficult to obtain:

    Kremlin issued updated demands saying it would halt all military operations if Ukraine agreed to the following: recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, acknowledged the statehood of Donetsk and Luhansk, and importantly to update the Ukrainian constitution barring entry into external military alliances (namely NATO).
    The trick is going to be finding something that:
    -- Putin will accept
    -- Zelensky can deliver

    Amending the Ukrainian Constitution probably exceeds what Zelensky can achieve.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-8

    Replies: @Wielgus

    He is also suggesting some flexibility on Crimea and Donbass, which he was not doing before. This is good but hardly suggests Ukraine is winning. Donbass are a bunch of terrorists, according to Ukraine.

  378. @Pharmakon
    @Mikel

    Yes, it's quite amazing to see how low-budget propaganda messaging produced by (of all people) Caucasian hillbillies, is vastly more successful with certain demographics than are money sinkholes such as RT.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    Kadyrov’s comment reminded me of the chant “We had joy, we had fun we had (insert target group here) on the run, but the fun couldn’t last ‘cos the bastards ran too fast.” Stupid but a memorable taunt. And good propaganda.

    •�Agree: Pharmakon
  379. Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1501304203725217792?s=20&t=KGnJ15FRc1xc2PrYUJWJpQ
  380. AP says:
    @Aedib
    @Mr. Hack

    It would have been interesting to see in The Sun similar images of civilian victims in the Donbass.

    Selective indignation is hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Wielgus, @AP

    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas. Of these IIRC 15 were killed in rebel territory (by Kiev’s forces) and 3 by rebels. These deaths were typically the result of shooting out of civilian areas and return fire. These deaths were rare.

    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine due an invasion totally of Russia’s making. Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings. But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee. Here, an elderly couple were shot in their car at close range;

    [MORE]

    •�Replies: @Pharmakon
    @AP


    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine..
    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings
    Have you got any proof to back this statement? Civilian infrastructure is being targeted only when it is occupied by the VSU and this is perfectly legitimate from, both, moral and military standpoint.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaign so, in all likelihood, those civilians are being killed by the VSU or by the TerOb retards.

    Replies: @AP
  381. @AP
    @Aedib

    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas. Of these IIRC 15 were killed in rebel territory (by Kiev’s forces) and 3 by rebels. These deaths were typically the result of shooting out of civilian areas and return fire. These deaths were rare.

    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine due an invasion totally of Russia’s making. Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings. But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee. Here, an elderly couple were shot in their car at close range;



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501163159138275331?s=21

    Replies: @Pharmakon

    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine..

    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings

    Have you got any proof to back this statement? Civilian infrastructure is being targeted only when it is occupied by the VSU and this is perfectly legitimate from, both, moral and military standpoint.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaign so, in all likelihood, those civilians are being killed by the VSU or by the TerOb retards.

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Pharmakon


    "In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine.."

    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.
    UN estimates there are 480 civilian deaths so far. So it will take 24 years just to break even, if there were no more civilian deaths during this war. Of course, unfortunately there will be many more.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings

    Have you got any proof to back this statement?
    https://twitter.com/lokmanchtoday/status/1500022266968494082?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Some of us have family in Ukraine who have witnessed residential places getting bombed, you can't fool us.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaig
    You are claiming that Russians are not using mortars? Maybe they are also not using guns? Tanks?

    You are just repeating nonsense they say on Russian TV. Thanks for demonstrating the lack of credibility of Russian claims.

    Russians firing mortars:



    https://twitter.com/UAWarUpdatesEN/status/1501228571817353223?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Here Ukrainians have captured a heavy mortar:

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501237463712419846?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Another captured mortar:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499777539102945282?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Ukrainian family murdered by Russian mortars:

    https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1500677873769885700?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Replies: @Pharmakon
  382. Basically this is just proof of the EMJ thesis that Richard Spencer, Jared Taylor, and the majority of the white nationalist movement are basically Jew funded psyops.
    When the white nationalist narrative rears its head the jew becomes invisible.

    All wars are jews wars.
    Spencer never had enough brains to be subtle.

  383. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    We cannot evaluate progress without knowing the objectives. Russia's stated objectives:
    - Demilitarization of Ukraine - mostly done, but could be reversed
    - Ukraine not in NATO - done
    - Denazification - mostly for PR
    - Security for Donetsk-Lugansk - almost done, but will take months to consolidate
    - Crimea in Russia - de facto for 8 years, de jure is symbolic.

    Russia has specifically said that they don't want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense - expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call "stalling action" could be "ending, because they are almost done".

    Russia will probably use the war to take control of most of the Black See coast. That would strengthen their strategic situation and would make it easy to block Ukraine inland. They will also keep on destroying weapons depots, air-fields, etc...

    This looks similar to what Izrael does, or what Russia did in Georgia. They go in, achieve their objectives, don't take any responsibility, move on. We may be better off than all the apocalyptic scenarios.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Dmitry

    Russia has specifically said that they don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense – expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call “stalling action” could be “ending, because they are almost done“.

    That would be a better situation that what we have now, that’s for sure. I wish it were viable but I don’t think it is.

    Among other things, it contradicts what Putin has told Macron his war aims are. It also contradicts the Russian battle plan. If the Russian war aims primarily had to do with Donbass/Luhansk/Crimea, it should not have attacked Kiev, which took most of the world by surprise, including me.

    Speaking for Russia as a nation, it’s reasonable to say that it’s best move right this second is to declare victory and go home. Unfortunately for Russia, that doesn’t remove the sanctions against it. But it does remove the instigating cause of those sanctions, and at least give Russian diplomats the possibility of reestablishing trust in the hope that animosities could die down and over the course of time the Russian economy might recover.

    But for exactly this reason though, I don’t think it works for Putin. He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation. I don’t think that’s a formula for Putin to stay in power, and maybe not even stay alive.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    The battle plan and likely a feigned move on Kiev can be easily understood: to get a free hand in the east and south, to tie down Ukr. forces in many places, to surround them in cauldrons in the east. It is the way people fight wars when there is a massive army opposing them - you go around, you confuse, create chaos. But we don't know Russia's "battle plan", don't speculate.

    ...declare victory and go home.
    I agree, the issue is that Russia defines 'home' as more than a month ago. Wars often end up with the winner taking more than what their original objectives were - e.g. Germany losing Silesia and Stettin ware not a serious objective for Poland in 1939. The inability to be realistic by Kiev and NATO means that they could lose the Black See coast.

    He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation.
    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that's worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    The 'oceans of hardship' are all around us, this is not going to benefit Europe or Ukraine. Russia still has about 50% of the world (with 80% of population) to trade with. They sell stuff that people always buy. On the other hand, what Europe was selling to Russia is easily available elsewhere or copied. What Europe was is buying from Russia can only be replaced by paying more or by consuming less. But let's see.

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don't keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya...). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general - and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Dreaming about internal coups or worse is a sign of desperation. I said the same thing when Russians were clumsily putting out feelers to the Ukrainian army. Let's stick with what actually happens.

    (I don't know much about cotton, so I will let your explanation of Civil War stand. It is different now - your analogy, as all analogies used are of very limited help. This is just different, it is 2022.)

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss
  384. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more - it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.

    If Russia achieves it objectives, what happens next? You can't fight a guerilla war if there is no occupation for most of Ukraine. The parts of Ukraine that Russia will control are in the friendly Russian speaking areas - some mayhem will happen, but in the open flat country along Black See that will be limited.

    The real change will happen in the rump Ukraine: destroyed military assets, no access to the see, loss of arable lands and Donbas industry, no prospect to be in NATO (or EU), and a Damocles sword hanging over them of more bombing any time. Dependence on EU handouts, poverty and mass emigration.

    Russia and Europe will suffer economically but will recover; Russia more oriented on China and the south, Europe more on US. Was this worth the stubborn refusal by NATO and Bidens-Macrons to acknowledge that Ukraine will not be in NATO? They thought they will call Russia's bluff, now we know better.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.

    No no. At the end of the US Civil War, the Confederates had no artillery, no men, and no food (and no money). None of those things apply to Ukraine.

    Though, early in the war the Confederates thought they would get help from the Continental powers because they, the Confederates, thought Europe needed Southern cotton more than it did. Which, come to think of it, reminds me quite a bit of the Karlin/Beckow overestimations of Russia’s economic leverage here.

    •�Agree: AP
    •�Replies: @A123
    @Boethiuss



    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.
    No no. At the end of the US Civil War, the Confederates had no artillery, no men, and no food (and no money). None of those things apply to Ukraine
    You left out the key word, presumably intentionally:

    None of those things apply to Ukraine -- *YET*

    The Ukrainian military is consuming munitions, such as Javelins & NLAW's, faster than they will be resupplied. Eventually, they will run out. The analogy holds up fairly well. The current situation is roughly comparable to the early U.S. Civil War.

    PEACE 😇
  385. AP says:
    @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Boethiuss

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/isw_map-2.png

    Are you seeing different maps? To me it looks like Ukraine is teetering on complete collapse. It looks like Union versus Confederacy in March 1865.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Boethiuss, @AP

    It’s a fake map; Russian forces have advanced along some main roads but don’t control all that territory between those roads. At best you can claim that territory as contested.

    By 1865, the Union had captured Atlanta and Savannah, splitting the Confederacy in two. Russia has only captured one oblast capital, a small one near Crimea.

    So far, this war resembles the Winter War in Finland, where the Soviets slowly seized lands while losing large numbers of men and equipment. For Russia, this war will be a race to see how much they will advance before they finally run out of soldiers and equipment. I doubt they can grab all of Ukraine before that happens but it is possible and even likely that cities near the border such as Kharkiv or Chernihiv may fall. Kiev would be a long battle.

    So far, Ukraine has inflicted many more vehicle losses on Russia than vice versa. The rate does not exceed the discrepancy between vehicle numbers, however, which means that at the current rate both sides will run out of vehicles at about the same time. If it becomes a war of infantry, Russia will be at a disadvantage. Ukrainian infantry is equal if not better than Russian in terms of training, motivation, and equipment. Remember when Russians were laughing at Ukrainian territorial defence forces training with wooden guns? Or when they laughed at the article I posted that said that Ukrainians would be having a field day with Russian tanks and APCs using all their javelins and NLAWs? Who is laughing now? How is the 7 day cakewalk?

    Russia already has something like 70% or 75% of its total usable forces in Ukraine, so this will be it. I’m not predicting who will win because Russia may very well have enough to slog through most of Ukraine – but as I predicted this will be a lot harder for Russia than Russian fanboys assumed it would have been. And Ukrainians do have a chance of winning, their struggle is far from a hopeless and suicidal one.

    If it ends like Finland we can expect Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    If Russia manages to take and keep Odessa, I wonder if Gdańsk will repeat its role from the PLC days as the port for all that Ukrainian grain.

    •�Agree: Bardon Kaldian
    •�Replies: @AP
    @AP

    Also, Ukraine is replenishing its equipment with captured Russian equipment; I am not sure that the reverse is true to the same extent:



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501177982731407365?s=21

    Replies: @A123
    , @tamako
    @AP

    Go read the assessments that the (American) Institute for the Study of War releases alongside those maps, you should notice that the ISW is pretty negative on the Russian side and is consistently pointing out how shit of a job (the Russians) are supposedly doing in terms of logistics, minimizing civilian casualties, running the information war, etc. That is to say, if that map is fake, it's certainly not because they're biased in favor of the Russians.

    If you want a fake map, go look at the maps Readovka releases.
    , @Beckow
    @AP

    You are right about some things, wrong about others. The maps are misleading because they mostly show who controls the roads in an area.

    Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”
    You can't 'denazify' a country, the goal is PR for domestic audiences in Russia-Ukraine. It has some effect, most people are reluctant to march with Nazis and there is enough of that in Ukraine to make it credible. Many will also leave for Europe or be killed.

    You are wrong about 'heavily militarised': the main success for Russia has been to destroy Ukraine's weapons, air-fields, etc...anything coming in, they can also easily destroy it in the future. That's why a no-fly zone is a key variable, will NATO have the balls to go for it? It looks like Poland has pulled back.

    EU will still play games with the rump Ukraine - too poor, expensive, volatile, white, Christian conservative, lacking the resources that EU was originally interested in.

    I like the idea of Gdansk as the future port for Ukraine. There is only one problem, a large portion of the black-earth arable land ('chernozem') is in the south and east. That's where the bulk of grains for export come from. It will depend on where the boundary ends up, right now it looks like Russia is cherry-picking the best parts. This war is many things to many people, but it is also a good old-fashioned plunder. What did Kiev expect? They pushed it with the in-your-face-we-will-do-NATO-and-more...

    Replies: @AP
  386. A123 says: •�Website
    @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.
    No no. At the end of the US Civil War, the Confederates had no artillery, no men, and no food (and no money). None of those things apply to Ukraine.

    Though, early in the war the Confederates thought they would get help from the Continental powers because they, the Confederates, thought Europe needed Southern cotton more than it did. Which, come to think of it, reminds me quite a bit of the Karlin/Beckow overestimations of Russia's economic leverage here.

    Replies: @A123

    When the Confederates surrendered they still controlled most of their own territory. They were not surrounded and still had external forces willing to supply them. They surrendered because their armies were not capable of organized fighting any more – it became pointless. They could had gone for a guerilla war, some did, but it petered out.

    No no. At the end of the US Civil War, the Confederates had no artillery, no men, and no food (and no money). None of those things apply to Ukraine

    You left out the key word, presumably intentionally:

    None of those things apply to Ukraine — *YET*

    The Ukrainian military is consuming munitions, such as Javelins & NLAW’s, faster than they will be resupplied. Eventually, they will run out. The analogy holds up fairly well. The current situation is roughly comparable to the early U.S. Civil War.

    PEACE 😇

  387. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    We cannot evaluate progress without knowing the objectives. Russia's stated objectives:
    - Demilitarization of Ukraine - mostly done, but could be reversed
    - Ukraine not in NATO - done
    - Denazification - mostly for PR
    - Security for Donetsk-Lugansk - almost done, but will take months to consolidate
    - Crimea in Russia - de facto for 8 years, de jure is symbolic.

    Russia has specifically said that they don't want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense - expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call "stalling action" could be "ending, because they are almost done".

    Russia will probably use the war to take control of most of the Black See coast. That would strengthen their strategic situation and would make it easy to block Ukraine inland. They will also keep on destroying weapons depots, air-fields, etc...

    This looks similar to what Izrael does, or what Russia did in Georgia. They go in, achieve their objectives, don't take any responsibility, move on. We may be better off than all the apocalyptic scenarios.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Dmitry

    Its original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back (kind of “We have only to kick in the door” attitude).

    We know they do not expect much fighting back in the planning, because otherwise you would not throw Tigr or BMD inside the cities.

    BMD is a metal coffin and Tigr is just a car made by Deripaska. These are not suitable for urban warfare, if you expect resistance.

    Even in December 1994, they do no put BMDs into the cities, even then they expect more resistance in Grozny. And in December 1994, they enter Grozny not prepared for serious urban war.

    But in 2022, they drive into the center of Kharkov with Tigr vehicles. It’s more suitable riot controlling, than urban warfare.

    So, we know planning was indeed for a light resistance with some kind of liberation.

    similar to what Izrael does,

    Israel tried to do regime-change of Lebanon in 1982 with 80,000 soldiers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War), in a similar invasion to this one.

    When the PLO is operating in Lebanon during its civil war, Israel invades Lebanon, occupied Beirut, to try to do regime change.

    After regime-change operation failed in 1982, they then occupy Southern Lebanon. Israel then occupies South Lebanon for 18 years, where eventually they exit in 2000. After ending of occupation of South Lebanon, Hezbollah has replaced its own power on territory Israel had occupied.

    In addition, to failing to achieve regime-change, reducing security in the multi-decade horizon, such failed military objectives, also contributed to militarization of Israeli culture, psychological brutalization of the Israeli population, and an increasing international isolation.


    To go offtopic, there is a good anime film on YouTube (“Waltz with Bashir”) about these themes of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, which reminds of this war in Ukraine today.

    Teenagers thrown into Beirut, without understanding the operation, kill civilians.

    At 20:00 a scene of killing a family in a car, was already recreated many times in Ukraine, where many civilians have been killed while driving in cars.

    This is television reporter in the invasion of Beirut at 56:45 in the film Ron Ben-Yishai, is currently in Kiev at the moment interviewing people for clips. Hopefully, Kiev will not become the next Beirut of 1982.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Dmitry

    .

    ..original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back
    Right. I am glad you have access to it, could you provide a link?
    Reading anything into a "BMD" somewhere is not a serious argument. There are fools with initiative in all armies (and other places too).

    There is some similarity with Izrael. In effect, Russia acted as a larger version of Izrael: security and ethnic goals combined. But let's not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years. When you look at the big picture, Izrael has done well with the aggressive protection of its interests combined with opportunistic 'growth'.

    Try to imagine what would have happened since 2014 if the geography was different and Izrael was a neighbor of Ukraine: the nationalist uprising in Kiev with ugly slogans about other people living there, celebrating Bandera and his Nazi collaborators, Nazi symbols, marches, signs, hand gestures, etc...I suspect if Izrael was next door they would have done something in 2015-16.

    Replies: @Dmitry
  388. @AP
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It’s a fake map; Russian forces have advanced along some main roads but don’t control all that territory between those roads. At best you can claim that territory as contested.

    By 1865, the Union had captured Atlanta and Savannah, splitting the Confederacy in two. Russia has only captured one oblast capital, a small one near Crimea.

    So far, this war resembles the Winter War in Finland, where the Soviets slowly seized lands while losing large numbers of men and equipment. For Russia, this war will be a race to see how much they will advance before they finally run out of soldiers and equipment. I doubt they can grab all of Ukraine before that happens but it is possible and even likely that cities near the border such as Kharkiv or Chernihiv may fall. Kiev would be a long battle.

    So far, Ukraine has inflicted many more vehicle losses on Russia than vice versa. The rate does not exceed the discrepancy between vehicle numbers, however, which means that at the current rate both sides will run out of vehicles at about the same time. If it becomes a war of infantry, Russia will be at a disadvantage. Ukrainian infantry is equal if not better than Russian in terms of training, motivation, and equipment. Remember when Russians were laughing at Ukrainian territorial defence forces training with wooden guns? Or when they laughed at the article I posted that said that Ukrainians would be having a field day with Russian tanks and APCs using all their javelins and NLAWs? Who is laughing now? How is the 7 day cakewalk?

    Russia already has something like 70% or 75% of its total usable forces in Ukraine, so this will be it. I’m not predicting who will win because Russia may very well have enough to slog through most of Ukraine - but as I predicted this will be a lot harder for Russia than Russian fanboys assumed it would have been. And Ukrainians do have a chance of winning, their struggle is far from a hopeless and suicidal one.

    If it ends like Finland we can expect Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    If Russia manages to take and keep Odessa, I wonder if Gdańsk will repeat its role from the PLC days as the port for all that Ukrainian grain.

    Replies: @AP, @tamako, @Beckow

    Also, Ukraine is replenishing its equipment with captured Russian equipment; I am not sure that the reverse is true to the same extent:

    [MORE]

    •�Replies: @A123
    @AP


    Ukraine is replenishing its equipment with captured Russian equipment; I am not sure that the reverse is true to the same extent:
    Are they capturing defective CCP tires along with the equipment? If so, that will be a liability. (1)

    Cheap Chinese tires have been blamed for a Russian convoy of armoured vehicles being unable to reach Kyiv.
    ...
    Karl Muth, an academic based at the University of Chicago and a self-described tire expert, took to Twitter to set out a theory blaming cheap Chinese tires for the slow advance of Russian vehicles.
    ...
    “Those aren’t Soviet-era heavy truck radials,” Muth said, commenting on a photo of a Russian army vehicle with ripped tires.

    Instead Muth believes the trucks use “Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20.”

    “This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan. it’s a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design
    How many other unreliable CCP parts have made their way into military equipment? The problem is larger than the forces fighting today. Various subcontractors and providers substituting low quality, but cheap, parts is an issue that could impact even NATO forces where the use of CCP parts is prohibited.

    Yet more proof that decoupling from inferior Chinese manufacturing is not simply essential for U.S. prosperity. It is also a prerequisite for U.S.national security.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.cityam.com/cheap-chinese-tires-blamed-as-russian-convoy-unable-to-reach-kyiv/
  389. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    Russia has specifically said that they don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine or take Kiev and the big cities. It would make no sense – expenses, responsibility, hostile population. So what some call “stalling action” could be “ending, because they are almost done“.
    That would be a better situation that what we have now, that's for sure. I wish it were viable but I don't think it is.

    Among other things, it contradicts what Putin has told Macron his war aims are. It also contradicts the Russian battle plan. If the Russian war aims primarily had to do with Donbass/Luhansk/Crimea, it should not have attacked Kiev, which took most of the world by surprise, including me.

    Speaking for Russia as a nation, it's reasonable to say that it's best move right this second is to declare victory and go home. Unfortunately for Russia, that doesn't remove the sanctions against it. But it does remove the instigating cause of those sanctions, and at least give Russian diplomats the possibility of reestablishing trust in the hope that animosities could die down and over the course of time the Russian economy might recover.

    But for exactly this reason though, I don't think it works for Putin. He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation. I don't think that's a formula for Putin to stay in power, and maybe not even stay alive.

    Replies: @Beckow

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    The battle plan and likely a feigned move on Kiev can be easily understood: to get a free hand in the east and south, to tie down Ukr. forces in many places, to surround them in cauldrons in the east. It is the way people fight wars when there is a massive army opposing them – you go around, you confuse, create chaos. But we don’t know Russia’s “battle plan”, don’t speculate.

    …declare victory and go home.

    I agree, the issue is that Russia defines ‘home’ as more than a month ago. Wars often end up with the winner taking more than what their original objectives were – e.g. Germany losing Silesia and Stettin ware not a serious objective for Poland in 1939. The inability to be realistic by Kiev and NATO means that they could lose the Black See coast.

    He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation.

    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that’s worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    The ‘oceans of hardship’ are all around us, this is not going to benefit Europe or Ukraine. Russia still has about 50% of the world (with 80% of population) to trade with. They sell stuff that people always buy. On the other hand, what Europe was selling to Russia is easily available elsewhere or copied. What Europe was is buying from Russia can only be replaced by paying more or by consuming less. But let’s see.

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don’t keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya…). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general – and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Dreaming about internal coups or worse is a sign of desperation. I said the same thing when Russians were clumsily putting out feelers to the Ukrainian army. Let’s stick with what actually happens.

    (I don’t know much about cotton, so I will let your explanation of Civil War stand. It is different now – your analogy, as all analogies used are of very limited help. This is just different, it is 2022.)

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?
    My understanding is that Putin and Macron are in reasonably regular contact. And in their most recent conversation, Putin told Macron that he intends to capture all of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow
    , @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don’t keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya…). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general – and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.
    Whatever. I may or may not buy this, but to whatever extent this is true, it's all the much worse for Russia.

    Because, let's assume for the sake of argument that one way or another military hostilities in Ukraine are suspended, let's even assume the territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine are mitigated if not resolved. That doesn't mean Russia is no longer being sanctioned by the Western powers.

    Lifting the sanctions against Russia requires a diplomatic process, one that Russia is heavily invested in. Without a diplomatic resolution to the sanctions facing Russia, Russia will either be impoverished, a vassal state of China, or both.
    , @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that’s worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.
    Yeah, the upside value of the Ukraine campaign in terms of Russian strategic security doesn't make sense.

    Even in the narrowest possible terms, for example it's not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before. Obviously considerations like this are almost certainly going to be determined as a consequence of how this invasion is resolved. And if Russia fails to accomplish its battlefield objectives (and that's the way it's been so far), then it's likely that the terms of armistice won't be in Russia's favor, eg, Ukraine in NATO.

    But of course, the security of a nation-state has many facets. One of them is the economic profile of the country, and another is the intentions of other nations toward it. Whatever Russia thinks it gained in Ukraine has to be miniscule compared to what it lost in economic activity and international stature.

    Your comments seem to imply that economic activity and international stature don't have much to do with Russia's strategic security whereas for me it seems obvious that they do.

    Replies: @Beckow
  390. A123 says: •�Website
    @AP
    @AP

    Also, Ukraine is replenishing its equipment with captured Russian equipment; I am not sure that the reverse is true to the same extent:



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501177982731407365?s=21

    Replies: @A123

    Ukraine is replenishing its equipment with captured Russian equipment; I am not sure that the reverse is true to the same extent:

    Are they capturing defective CCP tires along with the equipment? If so, that will be a liability. (1)

    Cheap Chinese tires have been blamed for a Russian convoy of armoured vehicles being unable to reach Kyiv.

    Karl Muth, an academic based at the University of Chicago and a self-described tire expert, took to Twitter to set out a theory blaming cheap Chinese tires for the slow advance of Russian vehicles.

    “Those aren’t Soviet-era heavy truck radials,” Muth said, commenting on a photo of a Russian army vehicle with ripped tires.

    Instead Muth believes the trucks use “Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20.”

    “This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan. it’s a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design

    How many other unreliable CCP parts have made their way into military equipment? The problem is larger than the forces fighting today. Various subcontractors and providers substituting low quality, but cheap, parts is an issue that could impact even NATO forces where the use of CCP parts is prohibited.

    Yet more proof that decoupling from inferior Chinese manufacturing is not simply essential for U.S. prosperity. It is also a prerequisite for U.S.national security.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.cityam.com/cheap-chinese-tires-blamed-as-russian-convoy-unable-to-reach-kyiv/

  391. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    The battle plan and likely a feigned move on Kiev can be easily understood: to get a free hand in the east and south, to tie down Ukr. forces in many places, to surround them in cauldrons in the east. It is the way people fight wars when there is a massive army opposing them - you go around, you confuse, create chaos. But we don't know Russia's "battle plan", don't speculate.

    ...declare victory and go home.
    I agree, the issue is that Russia defines 'home' as more than a month ago. Wars often end up with the winner taking more than what their original objectives were - e.g. Germany losing Silesia and Stettin ware not a serious objective for Poland in 1939. The inability to be realistic by Kiev and NATO means that they could lose the Black See coast.

    He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation.
    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that's worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    The 'oceans of hardship' are all around us, this is not going to benefit Europe or Ukraine. Russia still has about 50% of the world (with 80% of population) to trade with. They sell stuff that people always buy. On the other hand, what Europe was selling to Russia is easily available elsewhere or copied. What Europe was is buying from Russia can only be replaced by paying more or by consuming less. But let's see.

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don't keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya...). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general - and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Dreaming about internal coups or worse is a sign of desperation. I said the same thing when Russians were clumsily putting out feelers to the Ukrainian army. Let's stick with what actually happens.

    (I don't know much about cotton, so I will let your explanation of Civil War stand. It is different now - your analogy, as all analogies used are of very limited help. This is just different, it is 2022.)

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    My understanding is that Putin and Macron are in reasonably regular contact. And in their most recent conversation, Putin told Macron that he intends to capture all of Ukraine.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    Really? And that is documented where? Your 'understanding' is not a sufficient anything, yoi could be making it up.

    When I told you that NATO wanted and planned to get Ukraine into NATO you tried to deny it and asked for a 'proof'. Then I posted an actual link that word for word from NATO docs said 'Ukraine will be in NATO', and you have not mentioned it since then. So your credibility is spotty.

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  392. @Dmitry
    @Beckow

    Its original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back (kind of "We have only to kick in the door" attitude).

    We know they do not expect much fighting back in the planning, because otherwise you would not throw Tigr or BMD inside the cities.

    BMD is a metal coffin and Tigr is just a car made by Deripaska. These are not suitable for urban warfare, if you expect resistance.

    Even in December 1994, they do no put BMDs into the cities, even then they expect more resistance in Grozny. And in December 1994, they enter Grozny not prepared for serious urban war.

    But in 2022, they drive into the center of Kharkov with Tigr vehicles. It's more suitable riot controlling, than urban warfare.

    So, we know planning was indeed for a light resistance with some kind of liberation.


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497834839634067460

    similar to what Izrael does,
    Israel tried to do regime-change of Lebanon in 1982 with 80,000 soldiers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War), in a similar invasion to this one.

    When the PLO is operating in Lebanon during its civil war, Israel invades Lebanon, occupied Beirut, to try to do regime change.

    After regime-change operation failed in 1982, they then occupy Southern Lebanon. Israel then occupies South Lebanon for 18 years, where eventually they exit in 2000. After ending of occupation of South Lebanon, Hezbollah has replaced its own power on territory Israel had occupied.

    In addition, to failing to achieve regime-change, reducing security in the multi-decade horizon, such failed military objectives, also contributed to militarization of Israeli culture, psychological brutalization of the Israeli population, and an increasing international isolation.

    -
    To go offtopic, there is a good anime film on YouTube ("Waltz with Bashir") about these themes of Israel's invasion of Lebanon, which reminds of this war in Ukraine today.

    Teenagers thrown into Beirut, without understanding the operation, kill civilians.

    At 20:00 a scene of killing a family in a car, was already recreated many times in Ukraine, where many civilians have been killed while driving in cars.

    This is television reporter in the invasion of Beirut at 56:45 in the film Ron Ben-Yishai, is currently in Kiev at the moment interviewing people for clips. Hopefully, Kiev will not become the next Beirut of 1982.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9h7vIJ3Bik

    Replies: @Beckow

    .

    ..original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back

    Right. I am glad you have access to it, could you provide a link?
    Reading anything into a “BMD” somewhere is not a serious argument. There are fools with initiative in all armies (and other places too).

    There is some similarity with Izrael. In effect, Russia acted as a larger version of Izrael: security and ethnic goals combined. But let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years. When you look at the big picture, Izrael has done well with the aggressive protection of its interests combined with opportunistic ‘growth’.

    Try to imagine what would have happened since 2014 if the geography was different and Izrael was a neighbor of Ukraine: the nationalist uprising in Kiev with ugly slogans about other people living there, celebrating Bandera and his Nazi collaborators, Nazi symbols, marches, signs, hand gestures, etc…I suspect if Izrael was next door they would have done something in 2015-16.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    Izrael has done well with the
    Israel does well in many things, in their lifestyle, their water management, etc.

    They do not do well with Lebanon. Their policy in relation to Lebanon was creating disaster, which even from cynical, selfish perspective, resulted in weaker security 40 years later.

    If you wanted the most important thing to not copy from Israel, then it was the strategy which could result in such a military "adventure".

    Look how often negative the long term effects of these kinds of wars usually are, even if you would ignore the criminal aspect of killing people. There are usually worse consequences for the country which begins the war, decades later, than were present in the original situation.

    It would be much better if Israel would just build a high wall at the border with Lebanon, with some electric wire, and not go near to Lebanon, those decades in the past. It would be better if USA never knew where Vietnam was on the map in the 1960s. Etc.

    Replies: @Beckow
  393. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    The battle plan and likely a feigned move on Kiev can be easily understood: to get a free hand in the east and south, to tie down Ukr. forces in many places, to surround them in cauldrons in the east. It is the way people fight wars when there is a massive army opposing them - you go around, you confuse, create chaos. But we don't know Russia's "battle plan", don't speculate.

    ...declare victory and go home.
    I agree, the issue is that Russia defines 'home' as more than a month ago. Wars often end up with the winner taking more than what their original objectives were - e.g. Germany losing Silesia and Stettin ware not a serious objective for Poland in 1939. The inability to be realistic by Kiev and NATO means that they could lose the Black See coast.

    He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation.
    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that's worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    The 'oceans of hardship' are all around us, this is not going to benefit Europe or Ukraine. Russia still has about 50% of the world (with 80% of population) to trade with. They sell stuff that people always buy. On the other hand, what Europe was selling to Russia is easily available elsewhere or copied. What Europe was is buying from Russia can only be replaced by paying more or by consuming less. But let's see.

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don't keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya...). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general - and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Dreaming about internal coups or worse is a sign of desperation. I said the same thing when Russians were clumsily putting out feelers to the Ukrainian army. Let's stick with what actually happens.

    (I don't know much about cotton, so I will let your explanation of Civil War stand. It is different now - your analogy, as all analogies used are of very limited help. This is just different, it is 2022.)

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don’t keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya…). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general – and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Whatever. I may or may not buy this, but to whatever extent this is true, it’s all the much worse for Russia.

    Because, let’s assume for the sake of argument that one way or another military hostilities in Ukraine are suspended, let’s even assume the territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine are mitigated if not resolved. That doesn’t mean Russia is no longer being sanctioned by the Western powers.

    Lifting the sanctions against Russia requires a diplomatic process, one that Russia is heavily invested in. Without a diplomatic resolution to the sanctions facing Russia, Russia will either be impoverished, a vassal state of China, or both.

  394. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?
    My understanding is that Putin and Macron are in reasonably regular contact. And in their most recent conversation, Putin told Macron that he intends to capture all of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Really? And that is documented where? Your ‘understanding‘ is not a sufficient anything, yoi could be making it up.

    When I told you that NATO wanted and planned to get Ukraine into NATO you tried to deny it and asked for a ‘proof’. Then I posted an actual link that word for word from NATO docs said ‘Ukraine will be in NATO’, and you have not mentioned it since then. So your credibility is spotty.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow

    To be honest, I did not anticipate this was supposed to be a controversial point.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/03/macron-putin-call-ukraine/

    The 90-minute call failed to deliver a diplomatic breakthrough, and a senior French official said it left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow
  395. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    Really? And that is documented where? Your 'understanding' is not a sufficient anything, yoi could be making it up.

    When I told you that NATO wanted and planned to get Ukraine into NATO you tried to deny it and asked for a 'proof'. Then I posted an actual link that word for word from NATO docs said 'Ukraine will be in NATO', and you have not mentioned it since then. So your credibility is spotty.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    To be honest, I did not anticipate this was supposed to be a controversial point.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/03/macron-putin-call-ukraine/

    The 90-minute call failed to deliver a diplomatic breakthrough, and a senior French official said it left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.
    'convinced', 'aims', 'control'...and the infamous: 'senior official'. So it wasn't Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.

    Why wouldn't that be controversial? There is a war going on about it. In the past you denied that there was a plan to get Ukraine in NATO - there are documents, speeches and Ukrainian constitution saying that explicitly. Now you are willing to believe an opposite extreme based on nothing. You don't use the same standard, why?

    Replies: @A123, @Boethiuss
  396. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @mal


    Just like with the end of the Roman Empire, provinces will burn first. EU will be devastated. US will be fine. Dollar will soar in value to the point of being unusable. Like Pets dot com stock in 1999. So will US government debt.

    Russia will have to eat 15-20% GDP loss, but with low debt levels, it should be like living in the 90’s for a year or so. Depression will also cure inflation globally so I don’t see Russian inflation going past 20% for long, as long as depression results.
    If you know what is going to happen you are smarter than any person who ever lived!

    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?

    Just kidding. : )

    The bit about Newton is true but he had a good job so he didn't become a homeless person or anything.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?

    Actually, I did know that. He supposedly (one must be cautious about these attributions) and very memorably remarked of his losses, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men.”

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @silviosilver

    If you skim the bejeezus of it (I read ~ .6 of it word X word) Stephenson's Baroque Cycle is a glorious fun set of books to read. Newton and Leibniz are the greatest characters. Newton and Hooke are both mad as hatters from ingesting mercury for longevity.

    If anybody could do calculations on human madness for sure it was Newton as Stephenson wrote him.
  397. @Aedib
    Izum taken by the Russians (there is still a hopeless Ukrainian resistance in the south of the town). They are joining Lugansk forces which have “fire control” over the route from Izum to Gorlovka. So, another kettle was closed. The big one behind the Ukrainian forces attacking Donetsk is not closed yet but is taking shape.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Kettles only work if you have overwheming numbers/fire power. OTher wise they stretch you forces thin.

  398. The Russian idea that Ukraine has Biolabs for war is fake news.
    The Soviet Union had 11 biolabs researching Plague in Ukraine. In 2005 the US heard about them and paid for research samples. So they have been US funded.

    They are now in use by pharmaceutical companies to support drug trials. People in Ukraine are poor and are easy to recruit for drug trials. At the same time there are educated people there to work in the laboratories. It is a world centre for drug testing.

    There is also a claim about dirty nuclear weapons from Chernobyl. Ths is nonsense for 1000 reasons.
    So why make such claims?
    1) Weapons of Mass Destruction. The Anglo-American lie for invading Iraq despite the opposition of 75% of the people.
    2) A justification for using nuclear weapons.

    Putin failed to win in the first 3 days. Nobody in Ukraine rose up to welcome his soldiers. Now, in the north his convoys are stuck in the mud because their cheap Chinese tyres have burst. (The specification was Michelin. Somebody made money buying Chinese – I spent a night on a train with a Russian army tyre fitter. I know more than you might think about Russian army tyres).
    Russia will win because it has so many more machines and men. But Putin will be humiliated because of the cost in blood and treasure on his own side not to mention the repeat of Grozny and Aleppo across Ukraine, destroying whole cities from a distance.

    The invasion of Ukraine has been planned since February 2004 when the FSB removed every single member of the government except Putin. Then in 2005 there was the book “The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be” by Mikhail Yuriev. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to Taganarog – well before the Maidan. Putin is not alone. Change is not easy. The security services, the stavka (general staff) and some factions of the Orthodox Church have the same goals to reunite the Russian Empire.

    I used to admire Putin but I now think he was lying in his first presidency. His goal was always military strength not civilian prosperity. Hence his faint hearted discussions of EU and particularly NATO membership.

    https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/177-a-map-of-russias-third-empire-2053/

    •�Thanks: S
    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen


    used to admire Putin
    It just sounds like you are distracted with different marketing faces.

    In one-party states, the leader can need to sit in different seats, and talk to different groups in ways which are attractive to them.

    One of the parts of Putin's job as President, is talking to the bourgeois or to the wealthy people. This is also the social group he climbed to, so he absorbs by osmosis some of the vocabulary of the upper class (i.e. semi-understood neoliberal terminology from economic textbooks).

    So, there is the "bourgeois Putinism", which refers to "flat taxes" or "investment climate".

    But only 0,1% of the population in Russia are like rich people. So, he also has to sit in all the seats, to talk to all the other groups.

    Rich people are an influential group, but the bourgeoisie are still like 0,1% of the Russian population. So, the part of Putin's job talking about "investment climate" and "monetary stabilization", is just one of the many small tasks he has to complete as the one-party leader.

    When postsoviet leader one-party leader are sitting in a different seat, it doesn't mean it is a fixed position for them, or represents some underlying values. It's just a different seat they need to speak from in one day or another. One day, he is speaking with the bourgeoisie, about the monetary stabilization and the IMF reform program. Next day, he will be sitting with military leaders, speaking with a very different vocabulary.
    , @S
    @Philip Owen


    Then in 2005 there was the book “The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be” by Mikhail Yuriev.
    I've posted before about a remarkable geopolitical book (see link below for some quotes from it) published in the United States in 1853 called The New Rome; or, the United States of the World.

    The premise of the mid 19th century book is that there will be a future rapprochement between America and Britain, that the resulting newly formed US/UK united front will then unleash a 'world's war' upon the Earth when it moves to conquer and gain control of continental Europe's center of power (ie Germany) for itself, and that immediately following the world's war there will be a global struggle specifically between the United States and Russia for world domination, in which the 'New Rome', ie the United States, prevails.

    It had occurred to me that this book might have been a 'suggestion' being placed in the US public's mind of what was expected of the people of the United States in the future.

    And then I'd wondered if maybe a similar book, perhaps called The Third Rome; or, the United States of the World had been published in Russia in the past, as a 'suggestion' to the Russians but telling them that they, the Russians, were going to 'win', instead of the United States.

    I'd posted that very question in one of AK's past threads, if anyone in Russia had recalled such a book there, but didn't receive any answer. Thanks for answering that question, Owen, that yes, at least one such book does exist in Russia.

    There is at least a possibility, then, that rather than one side prevailing against the other in a WWIII, that someone (or something) could instead be attempting to manipulate both the US and Russia to destroy each other in such a war.

    https://www.unz.com/imercer/uncle-sam-still-king-of-all-invaders-ukraine-realpolitik-the-wests-failure/#comment-5212186
    , @Wielgus
    @Philip Owen

    Victoria Nuland has confirmed their existence and worried about them falling into Russian hands.

    Replies: @Philip Owen
  399. I stand by my point about this war being instigated by outside parties.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/ukraine-and-the-global-american-empire?s=r

  400. If true, I think… good news

    •�Agree: LondonBob
  401. @Coconuts
    @songbird


    Some people are saying that there is no way that GAE could take over Russia, even if it surrendered, but Ukraine seems remarkably woke, on a GDP per capita basis. On a dollar to dollar basis, it would make Ireland (super-woke in reality), with its corporate tax haven structure, seem based.
    Imo it's harder to gauge in post-Soviet countries because of legacy socialist progressivism, which had a certain level of overlap with liberal progressivism and now the Woke New Left stuff.

    From what I can tell worship of blacks and idealised oppressed noble savage archetypes is much more minimal and doesn't really exist as a cultural trope yet, so there is an obvious difference with how things are in Anglo culture at the moment.

    Replies: @songbird

    Imo it’s harder to gauge in post-Soviet countries because of legacy socialist progressivism, which had a certain level of overlap with liberal progressivism and now the Woke New Left stuff.

    What really amazes me is the gay stuff. Like, Zelensky did a comedy skit where he was wearing a gay S&M costume and playing a gay with other men dressed similarly.

    What year was that? I am not sure. And I don’t know how to manipulate these economic factors to do a good, technical comparisons, but Ukraine’s per capita GDP now is about the same as Russia’s was at the year the Soviet Union ended.

    Now that is admittedly a very rough comparison, and not apples to apples, but one could also compare it to other countries today, on a nominal basis.

    Mongolia, Indonesia, and El Salvador are above Ukraine in per capita. The next three lower are Egypt, Sri Lanka, and Djibouti. When I saw the fourth, I did not recognize it, had to look it up – apparently Swaziland has changed its name. I’m not very knowledgeable about any of these places, but has any flown a giant rainbow flag? I’d guess not.

    Maybe, it is just the regime signaling subservience to American power, or the EU. But, even so, it seems really strange and noteworthy, and it is hard to try to think through all the implications.

  402. People are certainly setting new heights in crazy shit. Somebody posted a link to a website on the Unz links space this morning. The story was poorly written. They served me an ad for 25 years of survival foodstuffs. (I didn’t ever imagine such a product was available for purchase.) But a companion piece was like f’n 4chan in utter absurd stupidity.

    Disgraced Alt-Right Leader Richard Spencer Defends Ukraine — Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion Gains Support of American Neo-Nazis

    https://www.dailyveracity.com/2022/03/06/disgraced-alt-right-leader-richard-spencer-defends-ukraine-neo-nazi-azov-battalion-gains-support-of-american-neo-nazis/

  403. A123 says: •�Website

    Poland just rolled Not-The-President Biden (1)

    Everything about that statement, including the headline, shouts that Poland is calling Anthony Blinken’s bluff.

    Essentially, Poland is saying: “Bulls**t, on all of this. The U.S. is lying. We are not going to start World War III, but if you intend to – well, here’s the tools, you start the war.” It is a stunning statement, and a jaw-dropping situation.

    The U.S. State Department is trying to use Poland to trigger a NATO war against Russia. Poland wants no part of that and is directly and specifically telling the world that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is lying. Yet somehow, the media don’t report on this.

    It is a multi-level win for Christian Populism in Europe:

    –A– Poland affirmed its sovereignty by reinterpretating the deal without consulting SJW Globalist administration officials (2).

    US “Surprised”, Wasn’t Pre-Consulted On Poland’s Announcement Of Jets For Ukraine

    This level of huge contradiction among allies on such a big development is just a bit awkward and even embarrassing. The Biden administration is saying it was caught completely by “surprise” at Poland’s declaration hours ago that it would send all its Russian-produced MiG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany for the United States to be able to transfer them to Ukraine

    .

    –B– The turnover will take place in Germany thus casting a Klieg light on Scholz as well as Blinken & Nuland. Will the Traffic Light coalition allow the MiG’s to fly from a Luftwaffe airbase to Ukraine?

    –C– Assuming that this actually happens, Poland gets newer F-16’s in return for aging MiG 29’s. Single engine F-16’s are much less expensive to operate. And, Poland is able to end it’s dependency on Russian spare parts.

    The already highly unpopular Biden regime is now going to take another leg downwards:
    ��� ​• Will they make the Ukraine situation worse by delivering the fighters?
    ��� • Or, will they back down on the deal Blinken has been trumpeting?

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇
    ______________________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/poland-calls-secretary-blinkens-bluff-refuses-to-help-the-united-states-start-world-war-iii-against-russia/

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-announces-all-its-mig-29-jets-will-be-transferred-us-send-ukraine

    •�Thanks: Barbarossa
    •�Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    I hope GR doesn't live near Ramstein.

    Replies: @A123
  404. @silviosilver
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Did you know that the 2nd smartest person who ever lived, Isaac Newton, lost his fortune in the collapse of the South Sea company?
    Actually, I did know that. He supposedly (one must be cautious about these attributions) and very memorably remarked of his losses, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men."

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    If you skim the bejeezus of it (I read ~ .6 of it word X word) Stephenson’s Baroque Cycle is a glorious fun set of books to read. Newton and Leibniz are the greatest characters. Newton and Hooke are both mad as hatters from ingesting mercury for longevity.

    If anybody could do calculations on human madness for sure it was Newton as Stephenson wrote him.

  405. @AaronB
    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Probably the people coming off the silliest in this thing are the"rationalists".

    Ron Unz insisted that Putin would absolutely never invade, because Unz absolutely correctly perceived that it made zero rational and practical sense for him to do so. The silly NATO stuff was obviously not sufficient pretext from a national interest perspective, so Ron knew Putin would not invade.

    After all, according to Ron Russia and China are "rational" - because technocratic, totalitarian - whereas only the US is "irrational" and ideological (democratic, chaotic, etc).

    Now, of course, Ron is insisting that Putin had absolutely no choice but to invade because of NATO in Ukraine etc etc etc. It was merely the totally rational thing to do, don't you see.

    And so the rationalist hamster spins it's wheel to maintain the tottering intellectual facade that "reason" rules on human affairs.

    And yet, had Ron merely consulted his own irrational "thumotic" tendencies - his "thumotic" hatred of Jews - he would have understood a man like Putin well.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and "thumotic" reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class - Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    The old, classical, thumotic human motives for war - still with us after the liberals assured us we are in a new age of rationality, represented by technocratic efficiency etc. Yet utterly incapable of being comprehended by the rationalists, as usual.

    Karlin, having moved out of the West and back to Mother Russia, had reconnected to his thumotic side and rediscovered emotions and sides of his personality that the West does not recognize or allow to emerge.

    That is why Karlins persona is so much more "strange" and "ugly" and "aggressive" this time around - it is the final unravelling of the residues of a liberal persona and a return to an archaic, thumotic mode that seems so shocking to our late liberal sensibilities.

    (well, not mine, I viscerally understand this kind of thing very well, although it is the work of spirituality to overcome it).

    Worth noting that Karlins transition is not complete, as indicated in his Hitler-like "conditional" support for Mother Russia that hinges on its success - not the true thumotic devotion one might find in ancient Rome, Greece, Israel, etc, and that alone truly leads to "greatness" (whether greatness is desirable is another question).

    As partial children of modernity, figures like Hitler or Karlin cannot truly return to the thumotic archaic mode that has been the engine of greatness in history - worship of soulless "efficiency" still clings to them - and they remain doomed to failure.

    Likewise, China's desire to regain Taiwan is entirely thumotic in character and has no rational basis whatsoever.

    Hopefully China will be deterred by this Russian debacle, which would go ten times worse for China in Taiwan with it's well supplied modern weaponry and full American support - but thumotic considerations are not rational.

    For sure, when that times comes the silly rationalists will insist that China cannot possible start a war because it makes no rational sense, and when it happens, they will insist it was the only truly rational thing to do - so remaining silly to the end and never learning anything, trapped in their narrow world view.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver, @Justvisiting, @Coconuts

    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.

    Agree that that is another interesting article by John Gray, I think he is the first ‘post-liberal’ writer I came across.

    I wonder if it is true that Ivan Ilyin is a major influence on Putin? From what I have briefly managed to read about Ilyin he sounds a bit like a Russian equivalent of Maurras, but maybe less of a journalist and with more philosophical depth in his writing. If Putin is really inspired by him he would probably be a contender for being the most based European leader since Franco and Dr. Salazar, and one of the most serious (given his position) post-liberals.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and “thumotic” reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class – Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.

    In France Maurras and the ‘Integral Nationalists’ used to be known as the realists or exponents of a reasonable ‘politics of nature’, based on the old Aristotelian tradition, while the liberals could correctly be called rationalists given their underlying philosophy, which Maurrasians criticised as being like trying to construct a utopian society balanced at the apex of a pyramid of disembodied, disinterested good wills.

    That in turn was supposed to be what gave rise to the periodic ‘crises of the demo-liberal fiction’, as human nature and the real workings of political power repeatedly reasserted themselves through the facade of abstraction.

    If Ilyin is a writer with a similar perspective it seems understandable how he could be seen as interesting and relevant in Russia, after the fall of Socialism and the failed introduction of Liberalism in the 90s.

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Coconuts

    Putin and other postsoviet leaders are not "post liberal" (which implies progressing through liberalism), but maybe like "pre liberal".

    Concepts like "free speech", "privacy", "bottom-up society" just not understood, except as limits on their control.

    It's not because of reading some esoteric writer, but because if you are a government worker, KGB, etc, from the Soviet Union, you don't experience these things, except from the position of being a government worker (where they are limits on your own powers).

    1990s in Russia just added a simulacra of some Western concepts, in the 1990s to try to "impress the white people" to give support and loans. And in the 2000s, this simulacra was more systematized, but became increasingly mechanized and "low effort".

    Because the population itself, does not understand what you are supposed to do with things like free speech or privacy (it's not shiny like money or power). They are easy to satisfy so you don't need to pretend too much.

    -

    Last year Surkov was interviewed by the Financial Times of London and there was the most honest or "saying too openly" description of how they try to arrange the "low effort" simulacra of democracy.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/interview-an-overdose-of-freedom-is-lethal-to-a-state-says-former-key-putin-adviser-1.4598641

    Surkov is really too honest and cannot avoid laughing about how gullible the people are. He is often saying it honestly and then laughing, but in the Financial Times interview there is the best description of the policy of the 2000s.
  406. @A123
    Poland just rolled Not-The-President Biden (1)


    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Polish-statement-migs.jpg

    Everything about that statement, including the headline, shouts that Poland is calling Anthony Blinken’s bluff.

    Essentially, Poland is saying: “Bulls**t, on all of this. The U.S. is lying. We are not going to start World War III, but if you intend to – well, here’s the tools, you start the war.” It is a stunning statement, and a jaw-dropping situation.

    The U.S. State Department is trying to use Poland to trigger a NATO war against Russia. Poland wants no part of that and is directly and specifically telling the world that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is lying. Yet somehow, the media don’t report on this.
    It is a multi-level win for Christian Populism in Europe:

    --A-- Poland affirmed its sovereignty by reinterpretating the deal without consulting SJW Globalist administration officials (2).

    US "Surprised", Wasn't Pre-Consulted On Poland's Announcement Of Jets For Ukraine

    This level of huge contradiction among allies on such a big development is just a bit awkward and even embarrassing. The Biden administration is saying it was caught completely by "surprise" at Poland's declaration hours ago that it would send all its Russian-produced MiG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany for the United States to be able to transfer them to Ukraine
    .

    --B-- The turnover will take place in Germany thus casting a Klieg light on Scholz as well as Blinken & Nuland. Will the Traffic Light coalition allow the MiG's to fly from a Luftwaffe airbase to Ukraine?

    --C-- Assuming that this actually happens, Poland gets newer F-16's in return for aging MiG 29's. Single engine F-16's are much less expensive to operate. And, Poland is able to end it's dependency on Russian spare parts.

    The already highly unpopular Biden regime is now going to take another leg downwards:
    ��� ​• Will they make the Ukraine situation worse by delivering the fighters?
    ��� • Or, will they back down on the deal Blinken has been trumpeting?

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇
    ______________________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/poland-calls-secretary-blinkens-bluff-refuses-to-help-the-united-states-start-world-war-iii-against-russia/

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-announces-all-its-mig-29-jets-will-be-transferred-us-send-ukraine

    Replies: @songbird

    I hope GR doesn’t live near Ramstein.

    •�Replies: @A123
    @songbird

    GR is quite safe.

    From my previous post: (∆)

    –B– The turnover will take place in Germany thus casting a Klieg light on Scholz as well as Blinken & Nuland. Will the Traffic Light coalition allow the MiG’s to fly from a Luftwaffe airbase to Ukraine?

    Alas, we will never know what Scholz was going to decide, because, this happened within hours of the Polish "offer": (1)


    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Poland-Pentagon-Fail.jpg


    This is the most outrageous passage:

    The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance

    These are the same officials who were advocating for: The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of Poland” departing from a NATO airbase to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine"

    The inconsistency is mind boggling. Was Not-The-President Biden's regime deliberately trying to start a Poland-Russia military conflict? What other explanation is possible?
    ______

    Is there any nation that respects the current White House occupant?

    While the fighter policy was being reversed, additional snubs were delivered. (2)

    Apparently, the Biden administration planned to go hat in hand to the Middle East for help with oil production. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to even take Joe Biden’s calls.

    (Wall Street Journal) […] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf.

    ...
    MBS and Sheikh Mohammed are not blind. They know the Obama-Biden teams support the Muslim Brotherhood who are the political wing of the Islamic extremist figures creating unrest in the Middle East.

    I diverge slightly from this analysis. It fails to mention the Obama-Biden team's support for Iranian aggression. After Iran cheated on JCPOA1, why are there negotiations for JCPOA2? It makes no sense, unless this is another effort to intentionally start a war.

    One can understand why the puppeteers that installed Biden are in total panic due to the results of their scheme. However, it is hard to see how a major war "helps" them. More war can only make the domestic inflation problem worse. And, there is no way to rehabilitate the failed administration with the American people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5219785

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/blinken-and-biden-fold-pentagon-rejects-poland-offer-for-united-states-to-start-world-war-iii/

    (2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/leaders-of-saudi-arabia-and-the-united-arab-emirates-refuse-to-take-biden-phone-calls-both-spoke-to-vladimir-putin/

    Replies: @songbird
  407. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow

    To be honest, I did not anticipate this was supposed to be a controversial point.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/03/macron-putin-call-ukraine/

    The 90-minute call failed to deliver a diplomatic breakthrough, and a senior French official said it left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.

    convinced‘, ‘aims‘, ‘control‘…and the infamous: ‘senior official‘. So it wasn’t Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.

    Why wouldn’t that be controversial? There is a war going on about it. In the past you denied that there was a plan to get Ukraine in NATO – there are documents, speeches and Ukrainian constitution saying that explicitly. Now you are willing to believe an opposite extreme based on nothing. You don’t use the same standard, why?

    •�Replies: @A123
    @Beckow

    Certain people uncritically believe anything that comes from the Fake Stream Media complex.

    According to @Boethiuss ... It is in Jeff Bezos' Washington Post, therefore it must be true.

    He also believes their lies about the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    So it wasn’t Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.
    This has been all over the media and to the best of my knowledge neither Macron nor Putin (nor anybody else except you) has tried to deny it. This is not dependent on one anonymous source or one media outlet.

    Replies: @Beckow
  408. Here is an interesting article about an “Irish” medical student, “from Carlow”, who got stuck in Ukraine:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60658896?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

    Something really fishy going on here. Is Ireland paying its blacks to get educated in Ukraine? I suspect so.

  409. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.
    'convinced', 'aims', 'control'...and the infamous: 'senior official'. So it wasn't Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.

    Why wouldn't that be controversial? There is a war going on about it. In the past you denied that there was a plan to get Ukraine in NATO - there are documents, speeches and Ukrainian constitution saying that explicitly. Now you are willing to believe an opposite extreme based on nothing. You don't use the same standard, why?

    Replies: @A123, @Boethiuss

    Certain people uncritically believe anything that comes from the Fake Stream Media complex.

    According to … It is in Jeff Bezos’ Washington Post, therefore it must be true.

    He also believes their lies about the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections.

    PEACE 😇

  410. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    What did Putin tell Macron? What are we missing from the goals I listed above?

    The battle plan and likely a feigned move on Kiev can be easily understood: to get a free hand in the east and south, to tie down Ukr. forces in many places, to surround them in cauldrons in the east. It is the way people fight wars when there is a massive army opposing them - you go around, you confuse, create chaos. But we don't know Russia's "battle plan", don't speculate.

    ...declare victory and go home.
    I agree, the issue is that Russia defines 'home' as more than a month ago. Wars often end up with the winner taking more than what their original objectives were - e.g. Germany losing Silesia and Stettin ware not a serious objective for Poland in 1939. The inability to be realistic by Kiev and NATO means that they could lose the Black See coast.

    He gained a thimbleful of advantage in Ukraine and bought himself an ocean of economic hardship and diplomatic isolation.
    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that's worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    The 'oceans of hardship' are all around us, this is not going to benefit Europe or Ukraine. Russia still has about 50% of the world (with 80% of population) to trade with. They sell stuff that people always buy. On the other hand, what Europe was selling to Russia is easily available elsewhere or copied. What Europe was is buying from Russia can only be replaced by paying more or by consuming less. But let's see.

    Diplomacy with the West? Of what benefit is diplomacy with people who don't keep their word, break treaties, attack smaller countries at will (Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya...). And then lie about it? This is not good for diplomacy in general - and the lion share of responsibility lies with people who behaved like rogue bullies for 20+ years.

    Dreaming about internal coups or worse is a sign of desperation. I said the same thing when Russians were clumsily putting out feelers to the Ukrainian army. Let's stick with what actually happens.

    (I don't know much about cotton, so I will let your explanation of Civil War stand. It is different now - your analogy, as all analogies used are of very limited help. This is just different, it is 2022.)

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss, @Boethiuss

    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that’s worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.

    Yeah, the upside value of the Ukraine campaign in terms of Russian strategic security doesn’t make sense.

    Even in the narrowest possible terms, for example it’s not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before. Obviously considerations like this are almost certainly going to be determined as a consequence of how this invasion is resolved. And if Russia fails to accomplish its battlefield objectives (and that’s the way it’s been so far), then it’s likely that the terms of armistice won’t be in Russia’s favor, eg, Ukraine in NATO.

    But of course, the security of a nation-state has many facets. One of them is the economic profile of the country, and another is the intentions of other nations toward it. Whatever Russia thinks it gained in Ukraine has to be miniscule compared to what it lost in economic activity and international stature.

    Your comments seem to imply that economic activity and international stature don’t have much to do with Russia’s strategic security whereas for me it seems obvious that they do.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before.
    If Ukraine wins the war, they will join NATO. What are the odds? 1 in 10? I don't know, but based on the situation on the ground, Ukraine doesn't control about 20% of its territory and has a foreign army moving around. So, yeah, it is rather clear. Unfortunately at this point the odds of a nuclear exchange are higher than Kiev winning the war and joining NATO.

    economic activity and international stature don’t have much to do with Russia’s strategic security
    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine? If they think that would put them in a situation of a permanent vassal, not being able to protect their wealth, then a very high level of sacrifice is worth it. As US would do almost anything to prevent Russian or Chinese bases on its border in Quebec or Mexico. Or probably even Venezuela. You need to consider that, not "whatever" dismiss it.

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  411. @Coconuts
    @AaronB


    John Gray has a great article up in the New Statesman about how the liberal West simply can no longer understand the mind of someone like Putin.
    Agree that that is another interesting article by John Gray, I think he is the first 'post-liberal' writer I came across.

    I wonder if it is true that Ivan Ilyin is a major influence on Putin? From what I have briefly managed to read about Ilyin he sounds a bit like a Russian equivalent of Maurras, but maybe less of a journalist and with more philosophical depth in his writing. If Putin is really inspired by him he would probably be a contender for being the most based European leader since Franco and Dr. Salazar, and one of the most serious (given his position) post-liberals.

    And yet Anatoly Karlin explicitly laid out the largely non-rational and “thumotic” reasoning for Putin, no doubt shared by a large number of Russians and especially the leadership class – Holy Kiev, Mother of Russia, ingathering of Russian lands, civilizational aggrandizement, etc.
    In France Maurras and the 'Integral Nationalists' used to be known as the realists or exponents of a reasonable 'politics of nature', based on the old Aristotelian tradition, while the liberals could correctly be called rationalists given their underlying philosophy, which Maurrasians criticised as being like trying to construct a utopian society balanced at the apex of a pyramid of disembodied, disinterested good wills.

    That in turn was supposed to be what gave rise to the periodic 'crises of the demo-liberal fiction', as human nature and the real workings of political power repeatedly reasserted themselves through the facade of abstraction.

    If Ilyin is a writer with a similar perspective it seems understandable how he could be seen as interesting and relevant in Russia, after the fall of Socialism and the failed introduction of Liberalism in the 90s.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Putin and other postsoviet leaders are not “post liberal” (which implies progressing through liberalism), but maybe like “pre liberal”.

    Concepts like “free speech”, “privacy”, “bottom-up society” just not understood, except as limits on their control.

    It’s not because of reading some esoteric writer, but because if you are a government worker, KGB, etc, from the Soviet Union, you don’t experience these things, except from the position of being a government worker (where they are limits on your own powers).

    1990s in Russia just added a simulacra of some Western concepts, in the 1990s to try to “impress the white people” to give support and loans. And in the 2000s, this simulacra was more systematized, but became increasingly mechanized and “low effort”.

    Because the population itself, does not understand what you are supposed to do with things like free speech or privacy (it’s not shiny like money or power). They are easy to satisfy so you don’t need to pretend too much.

    Last year Surkov was interviewed by the Financial Times of London and there was the most honest or “saying too openly” description of how they try to arrange the “low effort” simulacra of democracy.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/interview-an-overdose-of-freedom-is-lethal-to-a-state-says-former-key-putin-adviser-1.4598641

    Surkov is really too honest and cannot avoid laughing about how gullible the people are. He is often saying it honestly and then laughing, but in the Financial Times interview there is the best description of the policy of the 2000s.

  412. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...left Macron convinced that “the worst is yet to come” and that Putin aims to take control of all of Ukraine.
    'convinced', 'aims', 'control'...and the infamous: 'senior official'. So it wasn't Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.

    Why wouldn't that be controversial? There is a war going on about it. In the past you denied that there was a plan to get Ukraine in NATO - there are documents, speeches and Ukrainian constitution saying that explicitly. Now you are willing to believe an opposite extreme based on nothing. You don't use the same standard, why?

    Replies: @A123, @Boethiuss

    So it wasn’t Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.

    This has been all over the media and to the best of my knowledge neither Macron nor Putin (nor anybody else except you) has tried to deny it. This is not dependent on one anonymous source or one media outlet.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    This has been all over the media...neither Macron nor Putin deny it.
    No it isn't. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla... Not a single media says that "Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine" as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline - but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times...

    The 'not deny' is just silly. Macron also didn't deny that he was actually an alien, and neither did Putin. How about that? Your PR skills are behind the times, try to do better.

    At this point you are simply lying a lot. That devalues your other points, that are often good and worth considering.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Boethiuss
  413. @Beckow
    @Dmitry

    .

    ..original plan was regime-change, expecting without much Ukrainian fighting back
    Right. I am glad you have access to it, could you provide a link?
    Reading anything into a "BMD" somewhere is not a serious argument. There are fools with initiative in all armies (and other places too).

    There is some similarity with Izrael. In effect, Russia acted as a larger version of Izrael: security and ethnic goals combined. But let's not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years. When you look at the big picture, Izrael has done well with the aggressive protection of its interests combined with opportunistic 'growth'.

    Try to imagine what would have happened since 2014 if the geography was different and Izrael was a neighbor of Ukraine: the nationalist uprising in Kiev with ugly slogans about other people living there, celebrating Bandera and his Nazi collaborators, Nazi symbols, marches, signs, hand gestures, etc...I suspect if Izrael was next door they would have done something in 2015-16.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Izrael has done well with the

    Israel does well in many things, in their lifestyle, their water management, etc.

    They do not do well with Lebanon. Their policy in relation to Lebanon was creating disaster, which even from cynical, selfish perspective, resulted in weaker security 40 years later.

    If you wanted the most important thing to not copy from Israel, then it was the strategy which could result in such a military “adventure”.

    Look how often negative the long term effects of these kinds of wars usually are, even if you would ignore the criminal aspect of killing people. There are usually worse consequences for the country which begins the war, decades later, than were present in the original situation.

    It would be much better if Israel would just build a high wall at the border with Lebanon, with some electric wire, and not go near to Lebanon, those decades in the past. It would be better if USA never knew where Vietnam was on the map in the 1960s. Etc.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Dmitry

    So no link to the 'plan'? I thought so. No big surprise there, you pull things out of thin air. It doesn't work.

    Your response about Izrael's strengths and weaknesses is irrelevant, you keep on talking only about Lebanon, why narrow it? why cherrypick? I said specifically:

    ...let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years.
    How about that?

    Replies: @Dmitry
  414. @Philip Owen
    The Russian idea that Ukraine has Biolabs for war is fake news.
    The Soviet Union had 11 biolabs researching Plague in Ukraine. In 2005 the US heard about them and paid for research samples. So they have been US funded.

    They are now in use by pharmaceutical companies to support drug trials. People in Ukraine are poor and are easy to recruit for drug trials. At the same time there are educated people there to work in the laboratories. It is a world centre for drug testing.

    There is also a claim about dirty nuclear weapons from Chernobyl. Ths is nonsense for 1000 reasons.
    So why make such claims?
    1) Weapons of Mass Destruction. The Anglo-American lie for invading Iraq despite the opposition of 75% of the people.
    2) A justification for using nuclear weapons.

    Putin failed to win in the first 3 days. Nobody in Ukraine rose up to welcome his soldiers. Now, in the north his convoys are stuck in the mud because their cheap Chinese tyres have burst. (The specification was Michelin. Somebody made money buying Chinese - I spent a night on a train with a Russian army tyre fitter. I know more than you might think about Russian army tyres).
    Russia will win because it has so many more machines and men. But Putin will be humiliated because of the cost in blood and treasure on his own side not to mention the repeat of Grozny and Aleppo across Ukraine, destroying whole cities from a distance.

    The invasion of Ukraine has been planned since February 2004 when the FSB removed every single member of the government except Putin. Then in 2005 there was the book "The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be" by Mikhail Yuriev. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to Taganarog - well before the Maidan. Putin is not alone. Change is not easy. The security services, the stavka (general staff) and some factions of the Orthodox Church have the same goals to reunite the Russian Empire.

    I used to admire Putin but I now think he was lying in his first presidency. His goal was always military strength not civilian prosperity. Hence his faint hearted discussions of EU and particularly NATO membership.

    https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/177-a-map-of-russias-third-empire-2053/

    Replies: @Dmitry, @S, @Wielgus

    used to admire Putin

    It just sounds like you are distracted with different marketing faces.

    In one-party states, the leader can need to sit in different seats, and talk to different groups in ways which are attractive to them.

    One of the parts of Putin’s job as President, is talking to the bourgeois or to the wealthy people. This is also the social group he climbed to, so he absorbs by osmosis some of the vocabulary of the upper class (i.e. semi-understood neoliberal terminology from economic textbooks).

    So, there is the “bourgeois Putinism”, which refers to “flat taxes” or “investment climate”.

    But only 0,1% of the population in Russia are like rich people. So, he also has to sit in all the seats, to talk to all the other groups.

    Rich people are an influential group, but the bourgeoisie are still like 0,1% of the Russian population. So, the part of Putin’s job talking about “investment climate” and “monetary stabilization”, is just one of the many small tasks he has to complete as the one-party leader.

    When postsoviet leader one-party leader are sitting in a different seat, it doesn’t mean it is a fixed position for them, or represents some underlying values. It’s just a different seat they need to speak from in one day or another. One day, he is speaking with the bourgeoisie, about the monetary stabilization and the IMF reform program. Next day, he will be sitting with military leaders, speaking with a very different vocabulary.

    •�Agree: Philip Owen
  415. Mariupol cauldron boiling.
    Volnovakha cauldron closed.
    Severodonetsk & Lysichansk cauldron closed.
    Cauldron over forces west of Donetsk & Gorlovka closing.

    Things seem to move to the bitter end.

  416. @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    Izrael has done well with the
    Israel does well in many things, in their lifestyle, their water management, etc.

    They do not do well with Lebanon. Their policy in relation to Lebanon was creating disaster, which even from cynical, selfish perspective, resulted in weaker security 40 years later.

    If you wanted the most important thing to not copy from Israel, then it was the strategy which could result in such a military "adventure".

    Look how often negative the long term effects of these kinds of wars usually are, even if you would ignore the criminal aspect of killing people. There are usually worse consequences for the country which begins the war, decades later, than were present in the original situation.

    It would be much better if Israel would just build a high wall at the border with Lebanon, with some electric wire, and not go near to Lebanon, those decades in the past. It would be better if USA never knew where Vietnam was on the map in the 1960s. Etc.

    Replies: @Beckow

    So no link to the ‘plan’? I thought so. No big surprise there, you pull things out of thin air. It doesn’t work.

    Your response about Izrael’s strengths and weaknesses is irrelevant, you keep on talking only about Lebanon, why narrow it? why cherrypick? I said specifically:

    …let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years.

    How about that?

    •�Replies: @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    ink to the ‘plan’? I thought so. No big surprise there, you pull things out of thin
    Can you understand Russian language or resources? I guess in Czech you do not following what they been saying, there has not been any disguise of this aspect of the invasion in the early days.

    Putin told Ukrainian military to rebel against what he calls Ukrainian government (gangs of drug addicts and neo-Nazis settled in Kiev)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoIH9o2FbuM

    And Kadyrov is still going on this

    https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/1333

    you pull things out of thin air. It doesn’t work.
    If someone shows you direct evidence e.g. the military operation itself, which involves BMD, Tigr, and police and prison vehicles in the first wave of the invasion of Ukraine.

    Then you say "let's ignore physical or direct evidence". Or "it's because of a stupid person in the military".

    As if you are really claiming, the Russian military are irrational, and would send light vehicles to be destroyed, if they had expected the current levels of Ukrainian military resistance.

    They are not that crazy and stupid. It's because they simply, expected small resistance.

    -

    Personally, I'm interested in the war in Ukraine. Physical and direct evidence about the war, the most interesting topic here, for me. But you don't seem interested in talking about it, which is your option.

    I'm interested in why you send hundreds of prison vehicles in the first wave of a military invasion.

    If anyone has alternative explanations, than an expectation of little resistance of the Ukrainian military? If you believe the Russian military is simply irrational or wants to destroy its own forces.

    https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1500328192791523329

    Your response about Izrael’s strengths and weaknesses is irrelevant, you keep on talking only about Lebanon, why narrow it? why cherrypick? I said specifically:

    …let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years.

    How about that?
    Mission to invade another country, to change the regime of another country, prevent supposed threats, is Israel's policy in Lebanon in 1982. It's not 1948 or something.
  417. @Russian Antifa
    https://www.reddit.com/r/AntifascistsofReddit/comments/t0tj5n/proputin_russian_fake_journalist_anatoly_karlin/

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Guest99
  418. It’s obvious that Putler doesn’t care at all if the Russian rank and file perish in Ukraine, but at least 4 top Russian military commanders in Ukraine have perished.

    File under: Shock and disbelief

  419. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    So it wasn’t Macron and I see evasive weasel words to create an impression without saying what you claimed Macron said.
    This has been all over the media and to the best of my knowledge neither Macron nor Putin (nor anybody else except you) has tried to deny it. This is not dependent on one anonymous source or one media outlet.

    Replies: @Beckow

    This has been all over the media…neither Macron nor Putin deny it.

    No it isn’t. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla… Not a single media says that “Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine” as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline – but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times…

    The ‘not deny’ is just silly. Macron also didn’t deny that he was actually an alien, and neither did Putin. How about that? Your PR skills are behind the times, try to do better.

    At this point you are simply lying a lot. That devalues your other points, that are often good and worth considering.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    A first for Japan. A huge cargo plane from Japan arrived in Ukraine full of protective defensive materials, at no cost.

    https://youtu.be/1bPtT3P4FwY

    All in order to circumvent Putler's war party held up in....the Caucuses?
    , @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    No it isn’t. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla… Not a single media says that “Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine” as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline – but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times…
    You gotta be kidding me. First of all, this does not depend on one particular media outlet. There are scores of media reports on this. Here's another.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron-call.html

    According to this one,

    “Our analysis of the military operations is that the Russian ambitions are to take control of all of Ukraine,”
    So even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn't make much difference. Clearly Macron believes that Putin intends to control all of Ukraine. That's what he sees on the map, and that's what he's led to believe from speaking with Putin who he's in contact with at least once a week and maybe more often than that.

    Replies: @Beckow
  420. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    This has been all over the media...neither Macron nor Putin deny it.
    No it isn't. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla... Not a single media says that "Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine" as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline - but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times...

    The 'not deny' is just silly. Macron also didn't deny that he was actually an alien, and neither did Putin. How about that? Your PR skills are behind the times, try to do better.

    At this point you are simply lying a lot. That devalues your other points, that are often good and worth considering.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Boethiuss

    A first for Japan. A huge cargo plane from Japan arrived in Ukraine full of protective defensive materials, at no cost.

    All in order to circumvent Putler’s war party held up in….the Caucuses?

  421. @Anatoly Karlin
    Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  422. AP says:
    @Pharmakon
    @AP


    In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine..
    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings
    Have you got any proof to back this statement? Civilian infrastructure is being targeted only when it is occupied by the VSU and this is perfectly legitimate from, both, moral and military standpoint.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaign so, in all likelihood, those civilians are being killed by the VSU or by the TerOb retards.

    Replies: @AP

    “In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine..”

    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.

    UN estimates there are 480 civilian deaths so far. So it will take 24 years just to break even, if there were no more civilian deaths during this war. Of course, unfortunately there will be many more.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings

    Have you got any proof to back this statement?

    Some of us have family in Ukraine who have witnessed residential places getting bombed, you can’t fool us.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaig

    You are claiming that Russians are not using mortars? Maybe they are also not using guns? Tanks?

    You are just repeating nonsense they say on Russian TV. Thanks for demonstrating the lack of credibility of Russian claims.

    Russians firing mortars:

    [MORE]

    Here Ukrainians have captured a heavy mortar:

    Another captured mortar:

    Ukrainian family murdered by Russian mortars:

    •�Replies: @Pharmakon
    @AP

    I understand - if it is on Twitter, it must be true.
    On Twitter, the Ukraine is winning too.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack
  423. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    It depends how you look at it. If the advantage means strategic security, how do you put a value on it? How do we know how much that’s worth to Russia? How much would it be worth to US in similar circumstances.
    Yeah, the upside value of the Ukraine campaign in terms of Russian strategic security doesn't make sense.

    Even in the narrowest possible terms, for example it's not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before. Obviously considerations like this are almost certainly going to be determined as a consequence of how this invasion is resolved. And if Russia fails to accomplish its battlefield objectives (and that's the way it's been so far), then it's likely that the terms of armistice won't be in Russia's favor, eg, Ukraine in NATO.

    But of course, the security of a nation-state has many facets. One of them is the economic profile of the country, and another is the intentions of other nations toward it. Whatever Russia thinks it gained in Ukraine has to be miniscule compared to what it lost in economic activity and international stature.

    Your comments seem to imply that economic activity and international stature don't have much to do with Russia's strategic security whereas for me it seems obvious that they do.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before.

    If Ukraine wins the war, they will join NATO. What are the odds? 1 in 10? I don’t know, but based on the situation on the ground, Ukraine doesn’t control about 20% of its territory and has a foreign army moving around. So, yeah, it is rather clear. Unfortunately at this point the odds of a nuclear exchange are higher than Kiev winning the war and joining NATO.

    economic activity and international stature don’t have much to do with Russia’s strategic security

    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine? If they think that would put them in a situation of a permanent vassal, not being able to protect their wealth, then a very high level of sacrifice is worth it. As US would do almost anything to prevent Russian or Chinese bases on its border in Quebec or Mexico. Or probably even Venezuela. You need to consider that, not “whatever” dismiss it.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine?
    You have stated or implied that Putin's war aims are protecting Russia's strategic security whereas the things they are losing are in some way a difference in kind. I'm not having it, among other things it seems very obvious to me that being poor is a big security risk, as Russia is finding out now.

    Btw, here's a question you may or may not be able to answer: how come NATO membership for Ukraine is such a big deal pertaining to in-theater missiles, whereas NATO membership for Poland and the Baltics is irritating for Russia, but less important.

    Tallinn and St Petersburg are what, 100 miles apart? As far as stacking missiles right on the Russian border, NATO already has a platform for that if they want. Of course, there are no missiles in Estonia as far as I know.

    Replies: @AP
  424. @Beckow
    @Dmitry

    So no link to the 'plan'? I thought so. No big surprise there, you pull things out of thin air. It doesn't work.

    Your response about Izrael's strengths and weaknesses is irrelevant, you keep on talking only about Lebanon, why narrow it? why cherrypick? I said specifically:

    ...let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years.
    How about that?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    ink to the ‘plan’? I thought so. No big surprise there, you pull things out of thin

    Can you understand Russian language or resources? I guess in Czech you do not following what they been saying, there has not been any disguise of this aspect of the invasion in the early days.

    Putin told Ukrainian military to rebel against what he calls Ukrainian government (gangs of drug addicts and neo-Nazis settled in Kiev)

    And Kadyrov is still going on this

    https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/1333

    you pull things out of thin air. It doesn’t work.

    If someone shows you direct evidence e.g. the military operation itself, which involves BMD, Tigr, and police and prison vehicles in the first wave of the invasion of Ukraine.

    Then you say “let’s ignore physical or direct evidence”. Or “it’s because of a stupid person in the military”.

    As if you are really claiming, the Russian military are irrational, and would send light vehicles to be destroyed, if they had expected the current levels of Ukrainian military resistance.

    They are not that crazy and stupid. It’s because they simply, expected small resistance.

    Personally, I’m interested in the war in Ukraine. Physical and direct evidence about the war, the most interesting topic here, for me. But you don’t seem interested in talking about it, which is your option.

    I’m interested in why you send hundreds of prison vehicles in the first wave of a military invasion.

    If anyone has alternative explanations, than an expectation of little resistance of the Ukrainian military? If you believe the Russian military is simply irrational or wants to destroy its own forces.

    Your response about Izrael’s strengths and weaknesses is irrelevant, you keep on talking only about Lebanon, why narrow it? why cherrypick? I said specifically:

    …let’s not narrow it to Lebanon, there was a lot more that happened there in the last 70 years.

    How about that?

    Mission to invade another country, to change the regime of another country, prevent supposed threats, is Israel’s policy in Lebanon in 1982. It’s not 1948 or something.

  425. @Yevardian
    So, is anyone more connected with Russian popular culture (Our unboxing video afficionado?) than I going to comment on this new 'Z' cult that started 'spontaneously' appearing everywhere in the past few days? Naturally, Karlin adopted it immediately.
    I really don't like where this is going, you have Russia that seems to be actually sliding towards some sort of fascism versus the Americans, with all their hubris and LGBTXQKPOP insanity, again, I see no winners.
    After decades of stagnation, this is looking to become the conflict that Chinese historians will look back as ending ~500 years of European (in the broad sense) hegemony once and for all.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill

  426. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    This has been all over the media...neither Macron nor Putin deny it.
    No it isn't. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla... Not a single media says that "Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine" as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline - but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times...

    The 'not deny' is just silly. Macron also didn't deny that he was actually an alien, and neither did Putin. How about that? Your PR skills are behind the times, try to do better.

    At this point you are simply lying a lot. That devalues your other points, that are often good and worth considering.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Boethiuss

    No it isn’t. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla… Not a single media says that “Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine” as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline – but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times…

    You gotta be kidding me. First of all, this does not depend on one particular media outlet. There are scores of media reports on this. Here’s another.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron-call.html

    According to this one,

    “Our analysis of the military operations is that the Russian ambitions are to take control of all of Ukraine,”

    So even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn’t make much difference. Clearly Macron believes that Putin intends to control all of Ukraine. That’s what he sees on the map, and that’s what he’s led to believe from speaking with Putin who he’s in contact with at least once a week and maybe more often than that.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn’t make much difference.
    It makes all the difference in the world. And you know it. Foreign services statements exist in the context that they are "French foreign service" - their primary role is to promote their government's views or plans. They lie - e.g. UK or US with Iraq WMD's...they will make things up. This is also an "analysis", meaning it is 'subjective' (the meaning of 'analysis'). It uses 'ambitions' - what does that even mean? Dreams?

    I can say in my analysis that the French ambition is to take control of all countries in its former colonial empire in Africa, or that Justin Trudeau's ambition is to take over eastern Siberia and settle the disobedient truckers there. Same veracity.

    The article doesn't say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.

    Replies: @Boethiuss
  427. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...not at all clear that Ukraine is less like to join NATO now than they were before.
    If Ukraine wins the war, they will join NATO. What are the odds? 1 in 10? I don't know, but based on the situation on the ground, Ukraine doesn't control about 20% of its territory and has a foreign army moving around. So, yeah, it is rather clear. Unfortunately at this point the odds of a nuclear exchange are higher than Kiev winning the war and joining NATO.

    economic activity and international stature don’t have much to do with Russia’s strategic security
    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine? If they think that would put them in a situation of a permanent vassal, not being able to protect their wealth, then a very high level of sacrifice is worth it. As US would do almost anything to prevent Russian or Chinese bases on its border in Quebec or Mexico. Or probably even Venezuela. You need to consider that, not "whatever" dismiss it.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine?

    You have stated or implied that Putin’s war aims are protecting Russia’s strategic security whereas the things they are losing are in some way a difference in kind. I’m not having it, among other things it seems very obvious to me that being poor is a big security risk, as Russia is finding out now.

    Btw, here’s a question you may or may not be able to answer: how come NATO membership for Ukraine is such a big deal pertaining to in-theater missiles, whereas NATO membership for Poland and the Baltics is irritating for Russia, but less important.

    Tallinn and St Petersburg are what, 100 miles apart? As far as stacking missiles right on the Russian border, NATO already has a platform for that if they want. Of course, there are no missiles in Estonia as far as I know.

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Boethiuss


    Tallinn and St Petersburg are what, 100 miles apart? As far as stacking missiles right on the Russian border, NATO already has a platform for that if they want. Of course, there are no missiles in Estonia as far as I know.
    Exactly. NATO membership was an excuse, the real problem was choosing integration with EU versus Eurasia and leaving the "Russian World."

    The Minsk treaty was designed to prevent that from happening, by providing Donbas with veto power over this (Donbas was given the right to have its own trade treaty - with Russia - which would have necessarily prevented one with EU). When it became clear that this ploy wouldn't work, the excuse of NATO was used to invade Ukraine. Note that one of Putin's conditions was no bloc - not just no NATO, specifically.
  428. AP says:
    @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    But the point is: how much value does a country put on each? It depends on how much value Russia puts on not having NATO and its missiles on its border in Ukraine?
    You have stated or implied that Putin's war aims are protecting Russia's strategic security whereas the things they are losing are in some way a difference in kind. I'm not having it, among other things it seems very obvious to me that being poor is a big security risk, as Russia is finding out now.

    Btw, here's a question you may or may not be able to answer: how come NATO membership for Ukraine is such a big deal pertaining to in-theater missiles, whereas NATO membership for Poland and the Baltics is irritating for Russia, but less important.

    Tallinn and St Petersburg are what, 100 miles apart? As far as stacking missiles right on the Russian border, NATO already has a platform for that if they want. Of course, there are no missiles in Estonia as far as I know.

    Replies: @AP

    Tallinn and St Petersburg are what, 100 miles apart? As far as stacking missiles right on the Russian border, NATO already has a platform for that if they want. Of course, there are no missiles in Estonia as far as I know.

    Exactly. NATO membership was an excuse, the real problem was choosing integration with EU versus Eurasia and leaving the “Russian World.”

    The Minsk treaty was designed to prevent that from happening, by providing Donbas with veto power over this (Donbas was given the right to have its own trade treaty – with Russia – which would have necessarily prevented one with EU). When it became clear that this ploy wouldn’t work, the excuse of NATO was used to invade Ukraine. Note that one of Putin’s conditions was no bloc – not just no NATO, specifically.

  429. 1. The decision by the ‘Eastern Flank’ countries of NATO to propose sending their MiG-29s to Ramstein airbase is a hilarious troll. The US tried to bully them using their own airfields as training grounds. When the US’ own base was proposed, suddenly they got cold feet. As I said: America will fight to the last Eastern European.

    2. Is South Korea a bellweather? It has refused to participate in energy sanctions (import ban) but will institute a tech embargo. I think this will be the model that survives going forward once/when the war settles down. Russian energy/commodities are too important to ban. Question is if Putin will use them as bargaining chips to get access to silicon chips, and wether it will be successful.

    [MORE]

    3. https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1501290394067341316

    4. Remember this when you hear about “Russia’s global isolation”.

    •�Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Thulean Friend

    I typed into the google box: when was the last time Biden and Xi spoke?

    It came up 16 Nov 2021. Almost 4 months ago. That seems like maybe it is not good.
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1501359532542464002?s=20&t=eKGOWbCCsoH6RK1WeBpBcw

    Replies: @awry, @Emil Nikola Richard
    , @LondonBob
    @Thulean Friend

    I read something about Samsung looking to expand in Russia, not convinced how well these sanctions will be enforced by many nations.

    I can only imagine the fury and disbelief the Jews in the State Department are feeling about being outwitted by the Russians. What concerns me is that them, the Nazis and gangster oligarchs will pull down the whole world in their fury.
  430. @Thulean Friend
    1. The decision by the 'Eastern Flank' countries of NATO to propose sending their MiG-29s to Ramstein airbase is a hilarious troll. The US tried to bully them using their own airfields as training grounds. When the US' own base was proposed, suddenly they got cold feet. As I said: America will fight to the last Eastern European.

    2. Is South Korea a bellweather? It has refused to participate in energy sanctions (import ban) but will institute a tech embargo. I think this will be the model that survives going forward once/when the war settles down. Russian energy/commodities are too important to ban. Question is if Putin will use them as bargaining chips to get access to silicon chips, and wether it will be successful.

    3. https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1501290394067341316

    4. Remember this when you hear about "Russia's global isolation".

    https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1501411215263862784

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Blinky Bill, @LondonBob

    I typed into the google box: when was the last time Biden and Xi spoke?

    It came up 16 Nov 2021. Almost 4 months ago. That seems like maybe it is not good.

  431. @AP
    @Pharmakon


    "In the first 9 months of 2021 18 civilians were killed in Donbas.
    So far hundreds of civilians have been killed in Ukraine.."

    Yes, but this is to end all killings afterwards.
    UN estimates there are 480 civilian deaths so far. So it will take 24 years just to break even, if there were no more civilian deaths during this war. Of course, unfortunately there will be many more.

    Many of these murders are from indiscriminate bombings of apartment buildings

    Have you got any proof to back this statement?
    https://twitter.com/lokmanchtoday/status/1500022266968494082?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Some of us have family in Ukraine who have witnessed residential places getting bombed, you can't fool us.

    But also civilians have been hit by mortars when trying to flee.

    To the best of my knowledge, the VSRF is not using mortar systems in the current campaig
    You are claiming that Russians are not using mortars? Maybe they are also not using guns? Tanks?

    You are just repeating nonsense they say on Russian TV. Thanks for demonstrating the lack of credibility of Russian claims.

    Russians firing mortars:



    https://twitter.com/UAWarUpdatesEN/status/1501228571817353223?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Here Ukrainians have captured a heavy mortar:

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501237463712419846?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Another captured mortar:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499777539102945282?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Ukrainian family murdered by Russian mortars:

    https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1500677873769885700?s=20&t=2cblyLYhnHLR7tipUduC6w

    Replies: @Pharmakon

    I understand – if it is on Twitter, it must be true.
    On Twitter, the Ukraine is winning too.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Pharmakon

    Well, what other conclusions can you come to? I hear that Russian forces have "overtaken" both Mykolaiv and Kherson, yet I still see the mayors of both towns not conceding and angry mobs coming out to "greet" the 3-4 Russian tanks parked in the middle of town, singing the Ukrainian national anthem and telling the hostile troops to get the f__k out of Dodge. The tank personnel are afraid to leave the interiors of the tanks for fear of getting clobbered with a fry pan over the head by an angry babushkas. Wow, what great Russian victories?.........
  432. @AP
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It’s a fake map; Russian forces have advanced along some main roads but don’t control all that territory between those roads. At best you can claim that territory as contested.

    By 1865, the Union had captured Atlanta and Savannah, splitting the Confederacy in two. Russia has only captured one oblast capital, a small one near Crimea.

    So far, this war resembles the Winter War in Finland, where the Soviets slowly seized lands while losing large numbers of men and equipment. For Russia, this war will be a race to see how much they will advance before they finally run out of soldiers and equipment. I doubt they can grab all of Ukraine before that happens but it is possible and even likely that cities near the border such as Kharkiv or Chernihiv may fall. Kiev would be a long battle.

    So far, Ukraine has inflicted many more vehicle losses on Russia than vice versa. The rate does not exceed the discrepancy between vehicle numbers, however, which means that at the current rate both sides will run out of vehicles at about the same time. If it becomes a war of infantry, Russia will be at a disadvantage. Ukrainian infantry is equal if not better than Russian in terms of training, motivation, and equipment. Remember when Russians were laughing at Ukrainian territorial defence forces training with wooden guns? Or when they laughed at the article I posted that said that Ukrainians would be having a field day with Russian tanks and APCs using all their javelins and NLAWs? Who is laughing now? How is the 7 day cakewalk?

    Russia already has something like 70% or 75% of its total usable forces in Ukraine, so this will be it. I’m not predicting who will win because Russia may very well have enough to slog through most of Ukraine - but as I predicted this will be a lot harder for Russia than Russian fanboys assumed it would have been. And Ukrainians do have a chance of winning, their struggle is far from a hopeless and suicidal one.

    If it ends like Finland we can expect Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    If Russia manages to take and keep Odessa, I wonder if Gdańsk will repeat its role from the PLC days as the port for all that Ukrainian grain.

    Replies: @AP, @tamako, @Beckow

    Go read the assessments that the (American) Institute for the Study of War releases alongside those maps, you should notice that the ISW is pretty negative on the Russian side and is consistently pointing out how shit of a job (the Russians) are supposedly doing in terms of logistics, minimizing civilian casualties, running the information war, etc. That is to say, if that map is fake, it’s certainly not because they’re biased in favor of the Russians.

    If you want a fake map, go look at the maps Readovka releases.

  433. @Thulean Friend
    1. The decision by the 'Eastern Flank' countries of NATO to propose sending their MiG-29s to Ramstein airbase is a hilarious troll. The US tried to bully them using their own airfields as training grounds. When the US' own base was proposed, suddenly they got cold feet. As I said: America will fight to the last Eastern European.

    2. Is South Korea a bellweather? It has refused to participate in energy sanctions (import ban) but will institute a tech embargo. I think this will be the model that survives going forward once/when the war settles down. Russian energy/commodities are too important to ban. Question is if Putin will use them as bargaining chips to get access to silicon chips, and wether it will be successful.

    3. https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1501290394067341316

    4. Remember this when you hear about "Russia's global isolation".

    https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1501411215263862784

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Blinky Bill, @LondonBob

    •�LOL: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @awry
    @Blinky Bill

    Nigh impossible because of Israel.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Blinky Bill

    I never realized Stoller was a total retard. Twitter is really bad for a lot of people.
  434. @AaronB
    @Dmitry

    I admit I don't follow military developments very much, but I was under the impression that Russian military technology and capability in general was superior to that of China.

    I thought that was one of Russia's main strengths, at least reading all the Unz commenters (which obviously I should not be relying on for serious information lol).

    Either way, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be a military and political disaster for China, obviously.

    That doesn't mean they won't attempt it - thumotic considerations, the primary motivation for China, are irrational, and authoritarian dictatorships have famously corrupted information streams and decision making processes.

    Widespread corruption and the softness that comes from prosperity makes today's generation of Chinese very different than the one willing to make such supreme sacrifices and put up with such hardship during WW2 - and Chinese military organization and tactics, the state of it's equipment, and the morale of it's troops, are hard to assess, but likely as with Russia, not close to the propoganda.

    The interesting thing about the "rise" of China and Russia is that they do not attempt to frame their actions in terms of a universal moral framework, or develop a global system for the benefit of all.

    It's just naked self-interest and dreams of zero-sum personal glory and superiority without any larger vision or unifying framework. It's actually remarkably small minded and archaic.

    The American led glob system was and is obviously deeply corrupt and unfair, and as is known I am no fan of capitalism - but there was a genuine attempt to develop a universal moral vision and a system of mutual inter-benefit, however wrongheaded.

    Today, of course, the West is dying and it's spiritual vision has become corrupted to the point of being a malign force in the world.

    But what's remarkable is how there is nothing to supplant it.

    If China really wanted to once again be the "Middle Kingdom" and supplant the West, it would draw on it's tradition to develop a new and revitalized vision of a universal moral order and the inter-benefit of all states, which is actually something deeply rooted in traditional Chinese morality.

    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest - we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power. Granted, this can provide a certain level of motivation for a while, but this is a fundamentally petty vision - and utterly reactive - and one unworthy of any great people if it aspires to any leadership role.

    How different the vision America and the West had at least for a while.

    America and the West are badly in need of renewal and revitalization on a completely different basis - yes, a spiritual basis.

    But so is the entire world, and so are we all.

    Perhaps, first, the corrupted spiritual vision of the West has first to collapse into a morass of petty squabbling self interested states before the world can regenerate on a healthy spiritual basis.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird

    Yet the story that has captured the Chinese imagination is one of spite, revenge, and self-interest – we were humiliated by the West, and now we will show them, and we will nakedly pursue power.

    I believe it is inculcated in school, not to mention film.

    I’ve said before that I admire it, and I do. This lets me see the positive side of it, which goes beyond the obvious narrative of material and scientific progress.

    [MORE]

    Ultimately, IMO, the Century of Humiliation is just a Chinese nationalist’s formalization of the Eastern impulse to “save face.” Now, obviously, “saving face” is not always unalloyed good, but it is often associated with Confucianism, so there are philosophical and pro-social aspects to it. Inherently, it involves “theory of mind.”

    Maybe, it is often a very simple “theory of mind”, concerned with the things that men have been concerned about since primordial times. Whether someone else is laughing at their expense, whether they might lose social status. But those impulses, as selfish as they seem at first glance, can encourage all sorts of pro-social behaviors, where empty moralizing would not. It can prevent a man from blowing his top.

    And, ultimately, in a national frame, some “theory of mind” is better than none. A Chinese man might argue against a rash course of national action by saying, “China would become the laughing stock of the world.” Could an American? IMO, it is not in our toolkit.

  435. @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1501359532542464002?s=20&t=eKGOWbCCsoH6RK1WeBpBcw

    Replies: @awry, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Nigh impossible because of Israel.

    •�Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @awry


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNVvV_rUcAUS_zx.jpg
  436. @Thulean Friend
    1. The decision by the 'Eastern Flank' countries of NATO to propose sending their MiG-29s to Ramstein airbase is a hilarious troll. The US tried to bully them using their own airfields as training grounds. When the US' own base was proposed, suddenly they got cold feet. As I said: America will fight to the last Eastern European.

    2. Is South Korea a bellweather? It has refused to participate in energy sanctions (import ban) but will institute a tech embargo. I think this will be the model that survives going forward once/when the war settles down. Russian energy/commodities are too important to ban. Question is if Putin will use them as bargaining chips to get access to silicon chips, and wether it will be successful.

    3. https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1501290394067341316

    4. Remember this when you hear about "Russia's global isolation".

    https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1501411215263862784

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Blinky Bill, @LondonBob

    I read something about Samsung looking to expand in Russia, not convinced how well these sanctions will be enforced by many nations.

    I can only imagine the fury and disbelief the Jews in the State Department are feeling about being outwitted by the Russians. What concerns me is that them, the Nazis and gangster oligarchs will pull down the whole world in their fury.

  437. S says:
    @Philip Owen
    The Russian idea that Ukraine has Biolabs for war is fake news.
    The Soviet Union had 11 biolabs researching Plague in Ukraine. In 2005 the US heard about them and paid for research samples. So they have been US funded.

    They are now in use by pharmaceutical companies to support drug trials. People in Ukraine are poor and are easy to recruit for drug trials. At the same time there are educated people there to work in the laboratories. It is a world centre for drug testing.

    There is also a claim about dirty nuclear weapons from Chernobyl. Ths is nonsense for 1000 reasons.
    So why make such claims?
    1) Weapons of Mass Destruction. The Anglo-American lie for invading Iraq despite the opposition of 75% of the people.
    2) A justification for using nuclear weapons.

    Putin failed to win in the first 3 days. Nobody in Ukraine rose up to welcome his soldiers. Now, in the north his convoys are stuck in the mud because their cheap Chinese tyres have burst. (The specification was Michelin. Somebody made money buying Chinese - I spent a night on a train with a Russian army tyre fitter. I know more than you might think about Russian army tyres).
    Russia will win because it has so many more machines and men. But Putin will be humiliated because of the cost in blood and treasure on his own side not to mention the repeat of Grozny and Aleppo across Ukraine, destroying whole cities from a distance.

    The invasion of Ukraine has been planned since February 2004 when the FSB removed every single member of the government except Putin. Then in 2005 there was the book "The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be" by Mikhail Yuriev. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to Taganarog - well before the Maidan. Putin is not alone. Change is not easy. The security services, the stavka (general staff) and some factions of the Orthodox Church have the same goals to reunite the Russian Empire.

    I used to admire Putin but I now think he was lying in his first presidency. His goal was always military strength not civilian prosperity. Hence his faint hearted discussions of EU and particularly NATO membership.

    https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/177-a-map-of-russias-third-empire-2053/

    Replies: @Dmitry, @S, @Wielgus

    Then in 2005 there was the book “The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be” by Mikhail Yuriev.

    I’ve posted before about a remarkable geopolitical book (see link below for some quotes from it) published in the United States in 1853 called The New Rome; or, the United States of the World.

    The premise of the mid 19th century book is that there will be a future rapprochement between America and Britain, that the resulting newly formed US/UK united front will then unleash a ‘world’s war’ upon the Earth when it moves to conquer and gain control of continental Europe’s center of power (ie Germany) for itself, and that immediately following the world’s war there will be a global struggle specifically between the United States and Russia for world domination, in which the ‘New Rome’, ie the United States, prevails.

    It had occurred to me that this book might have been a ‘suggestion’ being placed in the US public’s mind of what was expected of the people of the United States in the future.

    And then I’d wondered if maybe a similar book, perhaps called The Third Rome; or, the United States of the World had been published in Russia in the past, as a ‘suggestion’ to the Russians but telling them that they, the Russians, were going to ‘win’, instead of the United States.

    I’d posted that very question in one of AK’s past threads, if anyone in Russia had recalled such a book there, but didn’t receive any answer. Thanks for answering that question, Owen, that yes, at least one such book does exist in Russia.

    There is at least a possibility, then, that rather than one side prevailing against the other in a WWIII, that someone (or something) could instead be attempting to manipulate both the US and Russia to destroy each other in such a war.

    https://www.unz.com/imercer/uncle-sam-still-king-of-all-invaders-ukraine-realpolitik-the-wests-failure/#comment-5212186

    •�Thanks: Pharmakon, Philip Owen
  438. Chechen RPG is now Ukrainian RPG/NLAW/Javelin I guess.

  439. Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief is inevitable.

    •�Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Your childlike responses are meant to impress whom? Even Michael Averko offers more nourishment for the intellect to consume than you. I thought that you've already made your swan song departure from here several times already? Maybe if you ask real nicely, Ron Unz will put you back on his payroll? I'd hate to have to stand in the long unemployment line in Moscow today, which I hear is growing exponentially.
    , @Bomb Moscow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Lol. It's hilarious how people Google your name.

    https://twitter.com/InvestigadoraP/status/1501423482407727105
    , @Mikel
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Any estimate of when we will be consumed by shock and disbelief? Weeks, months, years?

    I'm asking because I'd actually like this war to end as fast as possible, whatever the outcome, but, having trusted your predictions at the beginning, I see them coming apart with no end in sight.
  440. A123 says: •�Website
    @songbird
    @A123

    I hope GR doesn't live near Ramstein.

    Replies: @A123

    GR is quite safe.

    From my previous post: (∆)

    –B– The turnover will take place in Germany thus casting a Klieg light on Scholz as well as Blinken & Nuland. Will the Traffic Light coalition allow the MiG’s to fly from a Luftwaffe airbase to Ukraine?

    Alas, we will never know what Scholz was going to decide, because, this happened within hours of the Polish “offer”: (1)



    This is the most outrageous passage:

    The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance

    These are the same officials who were advocating for: The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of Poland” departing from a NATO airbase to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine”

    The inconsistency is mind boggling. Was Not-The-President Biden’s regime deliberately trying to start a Poland-Russia military conflict? What other explanation is possible?
    ______

    Is there any nation that respects the current White House occupant?

    While the fighter policy was being reversed, additional snubs were delivered. (2)

    Apparently, the Biden administration planned to go hat in hand to the Middle East for help with oil production. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to even take Joe Biden’s calls.

    (Wall Street Journal) […] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf.


    MBS and Sheikh Mohammed are not blind. They know the Obama-Biden teams support the Muslim Brotherhood who are the political wing of the Islamic extremist figures creating unrest in the Middle East.

    I diverge slightly from this analysis. It fails to mention the Obama-Biden team’s support for Iranian aggression. After Iran cheated on JCPOA1, why are there negotiations for JCPOA2? It makes no sense, unless this is another effort to intentionally start a war.

    One can understand why the puppeteers that installed Biden are in total panic due to the results of their scheme. However, it is hard to see how a major war “helps” them. More war can only make the domestic inflation problem worse. And, there is no way to rehabilitate the failed administration with the American people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5219785

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/blinken-and-biden-fold-pentagon-rejects-poland-offer-for-united-states-to-start-world-war-iii/

    (2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/leaders-of-saudi-arabia-and-the-united-arab-emirates-refuse-to-take-biden-phone-calls-both-spoke-to-vladimir-putin/

    •�LOL: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    I fear nobody in Germany is safe with headlines such as this:

    German court rules far-right AfD party a suspected threat to democracy
    Domestic intelligence agency can now tap communications and use undercover informants to spy on activities
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/german-court-rules-far-right-afd-party-a-suspected-threat-to-democracy

    What I find amazing about it is that they have the gall to admit they are doing it. Though, I think it quite likely that they are doing a lot of other bad stuff that they are not admitting to, like trying to tamp down nationalism in other European countries.
  441. “On an individual level, one of the positive effects of war is that it makes people feel more alive, alert, and awake. In James’ words, it “redeem[s] life from flat degeneration.” It supplies meaning and purpose, transcending the monotony of everyday life. As James puts it, “Life seems cast upon a higher plane of power.” “

    From Psychology Today, 8 years ago, by a guy who specialized in war/ego stuff. I think maybe he was onto something. The phrase “flat degeneration” reminded me of one person in particular. That fellow does seem to have a new spring in his heel. So do countless others. Pixie dust is in the air. We all know the feeling, when pixie dust clears, of “what was I thinking?”

  442. @A123
    @songbird

    GR is quite safe.

    From my previous post: (∆)

    –B– The turnover will take place in Germany thus casting a Klieg light on Scholz as well as Blinken & Nuland. Will the Traffic Light coalition allow the MiG’s to fly from a Luftwaffe airbase to Ukraine?

    Alas, we will never know what Scholz was going to decide, because, this happened within hours of the Polish "offer": (1)


    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Poland-Pentagon-Fail.jpg


    This is the most outrageous passage:

    The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance

    These are the same officials who were advocating for: The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of Poland” departing from a NATO airbase to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine"

    The inconsistency is mind boggling. Was Not-The-President Biden's regime deliberately trying to start a Poland-Russia military conflict? What other explanation is possible?
    ______

    Is there any nation that respects the current White House occupant?

    While the fighter policy was being reversed, additional snubs were delivered. (2)

    Apparently, the Biden administration planned to go hat in hand to the Middle East for help with oil production. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to even take Joe Biden’s calls.

    (Wall Street Journal) […] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf.

    ...
    MBS and Sheikh Mohammed are not blind. They know the Obama-Biden teams support the Muslim Brotherhood who are the political wing of the Islamic extremist figures creating unrest in the Middle East.

    I diverge slightly from this analysis. It fails to mention the Obama-Biden team's support for Iranian aggression. After Iran cheated on JCPOA1, why are there negotiations for JCPOA2? It makes no sense, unless this is another effort to intentionally start a war.

    One can understand why the puppeteers that installed Biden are in total panic due to the results of their scheme. However, it is hard to see how a major war "helps" them. More war can only make the domestic inflation problem worse. And, there is no way to rehabilitate the failed administration with the American people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-178-russia-ukraine/#comment-5219785

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/blinken-and-biden-fold-pentagon-rejects-poland-offer-for-united-states-to-start-world-war-iii/

    (2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/leaders-of-saudi-arabia-and-the-united-arab-emirates-refuse-to-take-biden-phone-calls-both-spoke-to-vladimir-putin/

    Replies: @songbird

    I fear nobody in Germany is safe with headlines such as this:

    German court rules far-right AfD party a suspected threat to democracy
    Domestic intelligence agency can now tap communications and use undercover informants to spy on activities

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/german-court-rules-far-right-afd-party-a-suspected-threat-to-democracy

    What I find amazing about it is that they have the gall to admit they are doing it. Though, I think it quite likely that they are doing a lot of other bad stuff that they are not admitting to, like trying to tamp down nationalism in other European countries.

  443. I’ve always hated reality TV, but would probably watch a show starring Kadyrov.

  444. @Philip Owen
    The Russian idea that Ukraine has Biolabs for war is fake news.
    The Soviet Union had 11 biolabs researching Plague in Ukraine. In 2005 the US heard about them and paid for research samples. So they have been US funded.

    They are now in use by pharmaceutical companies to support drug trials. People in Ukraine are poor and are easy to recruit for drug trials. At the same time there are educated people there to work in the laboratories. It is a world centre for drug testing.

    There is also a claim about dirty nuclear weapons from Chernobyl. Ths is nonsense for 1000 reasons.
    So why make such claims?
    1) Weapons of Mass Destruction. The Anglo-American lie for invading Iraq despite the opposition of 75% of the people.
    2) A justification for using nuclear weapons.

    Putin failed to win in the first 3 days. Nobody in Ukraine rose up to welcome his soldiers. Now, in the north his convoys are stuck in the mud because their cheap Chinese tyres have burst. (The specification was Michelin. Somebody made money buying Chinese - I spent a night on a train with a Russian army tyre fitter. I know more than you might think about Russian army tyres).
    Russia will win because it has so many more machines and men. But Putin will be humiliated because of the cost in blood and treasure on his own side not to mention the repeat of Grozny and Aleppo across Ukraine, destroying whole cities from a distance.

    The invasion of Ukraine has been planned since February 2004 when the FSB removed every single member of the government except Putin. Then in 2005 there was the book "The Third Empire. Russia as it must (Долхен) be" by Mikhail Yuriev. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to Taganarog - well before the Maidan. Putin is not alone. Change is not easy. The security services, the stavka (general staff) and some factions of the Orthodox Church have the same goals to reunite the Russian Empire.

    I used to admire Putin but I now think he was lying in his first presidency. His goal was always military strength not civilian prosperity. Hence his faint hearted discussions of EU and particularly NATO membership.

    https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/177-a-map-of-russias-third-empire-2053/

    Replies: @Dmitry, @S, @Wielgus

    Victoria Nuland has confirmed their existence and worried about them falling into Russian hands.

    •�Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Wielgus

    As I said above, they exist. It sounds as though not everything was cleaned out or perhaps might not have been.
  445. awry says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @Yahya

    They are a sight to behold. It's a beautiful country including beautiful intelligent hardworking people. And Putler wants to destroy it? It's a most despicable act that will never be forgotten.

    Replies: @awry

    Doubt that he wants to destroy it, the bear wants to embrace his wayward children.
    But to quote from an interview from a Hungarian who has been collecting folk songs in Ukraine:
    “In the east of Ukraine, the older generation had an interesting sense of identity: they were proud of the Soviet past, but when asked if they would join Russia, they said no. They want a big empire again, but also an independent Ukraine. But with the election of Zelensky in 2019, for the first time, it was not possible to map the East-West fracture in Ukraine on the basis of votes. It has become common for Russian-speaking people to claim to be Ukrainian. If the current occupation had taken place ten years earlier, the state could have easily fall apart; during less than ten years, Ukraine has undergone a change. The occupation of Crimea and the eastern region has created such a unified rejection that pro-Russian and anti-Russian actors have been brought to a common platform.
    In any case, I consider this war aggression, which is destabilizing not only Ukraine but also Russia, to be self-destructive and deeply reprehensible for the people of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
    There has also been a lot of irresponsibility in Ukrainian politics in recent years, such as the language law that has affected Hungarians in Transcarpathia or the strategy of NATO and EU membership that ignores the geopolitical reality, but it is clear to me that this unexpected conflict.
    The West does not understand the thinking of the eastern world. few speak eastern languages, few know their culture, their history. Whatever the outcome of the war, the relative stability of the Ukrainian state has deteriorated. Thousands of foreigners are coming to the country to fight from all over the world, the weapons flooding the population will not be taken out of circulation again for a long time, and the senseless destruction of millions of civilian lives will ignite unquenchable rage among the people. Even now, I can’t comprehend exactly what this is about, what are the benefits of this invasion? I understand his background, I also understand the Russian motive and the Ukrainian interests, but I think that this has been escalated into a frontal war is incomprehensible and unacceptable. We are one step away from making Ukraine the land of the Cossacks again.”

    •�Thanks: Mr. Hack
  446. @Blinky Bill
    @Thulean Friend

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1501359532542464002?s=20&t=eKGOWbCCsoH6RK1WeBpBcw

    Replies: @awry, @Emil Nikola Richard

    I never realized Stoller was a total retard. Twitter is really bad for a lot of people.

  447. @Anatoly Karlin
    Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief is inevitable.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Bomb Moscow, @Mikel

    Your childlike responses are meant to impress whom? Even Michael Averko offers more nourishment for the intellect to consume than you. I thought that you’ve already made your swan song departure from here several times already? Maybe if you ask real nicely, Ron Unz will put you back on his payroll? I’d hate to have to stand in the long unemployment line in Moscow today, which I hear is growing exponentially.

  448. @Pharmakon
    @AP

    I understand - if it is on Twitter, it must be true.
    On Twitter, the Ukraine is winning too.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Well, what other conclusions can you come to? I hear that Russian forces have “overtaken” both Mykolaiv and Kherson, yet I still see the mayors of both towns not conceding and angry mobs coming out to “greet” the 3-4 Russian tanks parked in the middle of town, singing the Ukrainian national anthem and telling the hostile troops to get the f__k out of Dodge. The tank personnel are afraid to leave the interiors of the tanks for fear of getting clobbered with a fry pan over the head by an angry babushkas. Wow, what great Russian victories?………

  449. Perhaps, Greta and the Greens played Putin to try to destroy industries and lifestyles dependent on cheap fossil fuels.
    ____________
    If I were making propaganda for Russia, I would pay some guys to make a mod of some old video game like Syphon Filter where the Russians are the bad guys, and make GAE the bad guys, instead.

    Make it about about trying to stop American agents from releasing a gay germ tailored to the DNA of Slavs. (an intermediary step to making one for the Chinese.) Include lots of other countries toadying and rainbow flags, and goosestepping gay parades.

  450. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    No it isn’t. What is all over the media is that they talked and that Macron said this-and-that and Putin said blabla… Not a single media says that “Putin told Macron that he will take over all of Ukraine” as you claimed. If that was said it would a major headline – but it is not, it is nowhere, not even mentioned by France24, BBC, NY Times…
    You gotta be kidding me. First of all, this does not depend on one particular media outlet. There are scores of media reports on this. Here's another.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron-call.html

    According to this one,

    “Our analysis of the military operations is that the Russian ambitions are to take control of all of Ukraine,”
    So even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn't make much difference. Clearly Macron believes that Putin intends to control all of Ukraine. That's what he sees on the map, and that's what he's led to believe from speaking with Putin who he's in contact with at least once a week and maybe more often than that.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn’t make much difference.

    It makes all the difference in the world. And you know it. Foreign services statements exist in the context that they are “French foreign service” – their primary role is to promote their government’s views or plans. They lie – e.g. UK or US with Iraq WMD’s…they will make things up. This is also an “analysis”, meaning it is ‘subjective’ (the meaning of ‘analysis’). It uses ‘ambitions’ – what does that even mean? Dreams?

    I can say in my analysis that the French ambition is to take control of all countries in its former colonial empire in Africa, or that Justin Trudeau’s ambition is to take over eastern Siberia and settle the disobedient truckers there. Same veracity.

    The article doesn’t say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.

    •�Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    The article doesn’t say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.
    No no. This is absurdly pedantic.

    We know that Putin directly attacked Kiev as well as eastern Ukraine in the invasion. We also know that Macron and Putin are in regular contact, including the conversation at issue. This conversation has some measure of confidentiality, not much but some. So as far as I know there are no public transcripts or direct quotes from Putin. But it was a conversation, Putin clearly said topical things in the course of those 90 minutes.

    What I said (upthread) was that Putin told Macron in the course of this conversation that he, Putin, intended to control all of Ukraine as a consequence of this invasion. Which, of course, Putin said. We have reason to believe this because for people in the French foreign service who had direct access to this conversation that we don't, that's what _they_ said. If there were a direct transcript, that's what the transcript would say.

    It's not that the French foreign service was idly speculating about Putin's motives. They are summarizing the results of a direct contact between Putin and Macron.

    Replies: @Beckow
  451. @AP
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It’s a fake map; Russian forces have advanced along some main roads but don’t control all that territory between those roads. At best you can claim that territory as contested.

    By 1865, the Union had captured Atlanta and Savannah, splitting the Confederacy in two. Russia has only captured one oblast capital, a small one near Crimea.

    So far, this war resembles the Winter War in Finland, where the Soviets slowly seized lands while losing large numbers of men and equipment. For Russia, this war will be a race to see how much they will advance before they finally run out of soldiers and equipment. I doubt they can grab all of Ukraine before that happens but it is possible and even likely that cities near the border such as Kharkiv or Chernihiv may fall. Kiev would be a long battle.

    So far, Ukraine has inflicted many more vehicle losses on Russia than vice versa. The rate does not exceed the discrepancy between vehicle numbers, however, which means that at the current rate both sides will run out of vehicles at about the same time. If it becomes a war of infantry, Russia will be at a disadvantage. Ukrainian infantry is equal if not better than Russian in terms of training, motivation, and equipment. Remember when Russians were laughing at Ukrainian territorial defence forces training with wooden guns? Or when they laughed at the article I posted that said that Ukrainians would be having a field day with Russian tanks and APCs using all their javelins and NLAWs? Who is laughing now? How is the 7 day cakewalk?

    Russia already has something like 70% or 75% of its total usable forces in Ukraine, so this will be it. I’m not predicting who will win because Russia may very well have enough to slog through most of Ukraine - but as I predicted this will be a lot harder for Russia than Russian fanboys assumed it would have been. And Ukrainians do have a chance of winning, their struggle is far from a hopeless and suicidal one.

    If it ends like Finland we can expect Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    If Russia manages to take and keep Odessa, I wonder if Gdańsk will repeat its role from the PLC days as the port for all that Ukrainian grain.

    Replies: @AP, @tamako, @Beckow

    You are right about some things, wrong about others. The maps are misleading because they mostly show who controls the roads in an area.

    Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”

    You can’t ‘denazify‘ a country, the goal is PR for domestic audiences in Russia-Ukraine. It has some effect, most people are reluctant to march with Nazis and there is enough of that in Ukraine to make it credible. Many will also leave for Europe or be killed.

    You are wrong about ‘heavily militarised‘: the main success for Russia has been to destroy Ukraine’s weapons, air-fields, etc…anything coming in, they can also easily destroy it in the future. That’s why a no-fly zone is a key variable, will NATO have the balls to go for it? It looks like Poland has pulled back.

    EU will still play games with the rump Ukraine – too poor, expensive, volatile, white, Christian conservative, lacking the resources that EU was originally interested in.

    I like the idea of Gdansk as the future port for Ukraine. There is only one problem, a large portion of the black-earth arable land (‘chernozem’) is in the south and east. That’s where the bulk of grains for export come from. It will depend on where the boundary ends up, right now it looks like Russia is cherry-picking the best parts. This war is many things to many people, but it is also a good old-fashioned plunder. What did Kiev expect? They pushed it with the in-your-face-we-will-do-NATO-and-more

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Beckow

    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.

    Things aren’t going so well so this is off the table.

    Demilitarization is also now off the table. It means Ukraine will rebuild its air fields and build the drone making factory (joint project with Turkey already agreed upon) that fortunately had not yet been started before the war. Its infantry is already superbly armed and its Air Force will be replenished.

    I would expect Ukraine to be rebuilt using money confiscated from Russia.

    Russia will have his Crimea and Donbas. Maybe it will keep the land bridge?

    NATO will be off the table, but EU won’t be.

    Overall a massive waste, Putin is the one primarily to blame. He stupidly thought that Ukrainians would behave like Beckow, and give up right away.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian
  452. They’re going to start besieging cities and shelling indiscriminately after this “humanitarian corridor”

    US and MI6state department have now brought in Salafist headchoppers(the Sunni Islamists – its the 5th branch of the U.S. Armed Forces of the 21st century, along with the USArmy, USAF, USN and USMC and a tried and true favorite )

    we take what we can get but I dont think we should have Salafists in Ukraine..plus it isnt doing much for PR at all. ISIS fighting to support democracy in Ukraine. What a world

    And after all after the bombings, Putin, isnt even probably going to be rebuilding anything

    •�Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Svidomyatheart

    You are talking about all the "foreign volunteers" coming into the country? I hadn't heard that many of them are Muslim fundamentalists, but then again I hadn't been paying much attention to that. What are you hearing?

    I don't have a real ideological investment in this war on either side, but I hope that it's over as quickly as possible. This is a terrible tragedy for Ukraine, and arms and foreign fighters seem to me only to make it worse for the people of Ukraine by prolonging the destruction.
  453. @awry
    @Blinky Bill

    Nigh impossible because of Israel.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  454. @Anatoly Karlin
    Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief is inevitable.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Bomb Moscow, @Mikel

    Lol. It’s hilarious how people Google your name.

  455. @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...even if this is an analysis of the French foreign service as opposed to Putin himself, it doesn’t make much difference.
    It makes all the difference in the world. And you know it. Foreign services statements exist in the context that they are "French foreign service" - their primary role is to promote their government's views or plans. They lie - e.g. UK or US with Iraq WMD's...they will make things up. This is also an "analysis", meaning it is 'subjective' (the meaning of 'analysis'). It uses 'ambitions' - what does that even mean? Dreams?

    I can say in my analysis that the French ambition is to take control of all countries in its former colonial empire in Africa, or that Justin Trudeau's ambition is to take over eastern Siberia and settle the disobedient truckers there. Same veracity.

    The article doesn't say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    The article doesn’t say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.

    No no. This is absurdly pedantic.

    We know that Putin directly attacked Kiev as well as eastern Ukraine in the invasion. We also know that Macron and Putin are in regular contact, including the conversation at issue. This conversation has some measure of confidentiality, not much but some. So as far as I know there are no public transcripts or direct quotes from Putin. But it was a conversation, Putin clearly said topical things in the course of those 90 minutes.

    What I said (upthread) was that Putin told Macron in the course of this conversation that he, Putin, intended to control all of Ukraine as a consequence of this invasion. Which, of course, Putin said. We have reason to believe this because for people in the French foreign service who had direct access to this conversation that we don’t, that’s what _they_ said. If there were a direct transcript, that’s what the transcript would say.

    It’s not that the French foreign service was idly speculating about Putin’s motives. They are summarizing the results of a direct contact between Putin and Macron.

    •�LOL: Pharmakon
    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss


    ...French foreign service was idly speculating about Putin’s motives.
    Precisely. I am not sure it was 'idly', but they were speculating, projecting, manipulating. Or all three.

    You are in a hole: what you claimed is not true. Stop digging, all the additional stuff you have come up with only shows that you wildly exaggerated in your original claim.

    It is touching how trusting you are of the French officials. Some people are conformist because they have to be, others because that's just the way they are. Which flavor of conformism fits you better?

    (Your breathless doubling-down suggests that conformism is your nature. Good luck with that.)
  456. @Boethiuss
    @Beckow


    The article doesn’t say what you claimed. You claimed that Macron said Putin told him that he will take over all of Ukraine. Neither Macron nor Putin said it. You are basing it on nothing. I am sorry but self-serving and ambiguous anonymous speculation by an analyst is nothing. Think about all the lies these people have fed the world.
    No no. This is absurdly pedantic.

    We know that Putin directly attacked Kiev as well as eastern Ukraine in the invasion. We also know that Macron and Putin are in regular contact, including the conversation at issue. This conversation has some measure of confidentiality, not much but some. So as far as I know there are no public transcripts or direct quotes from Putin. But it was a conversation, Putin clearly said topical things in the course of those 90 minutes.

    What I said (upthread) was that Putin told Macron in the course of this conversation that he, Putin, intended to control all of Ukraine as a consequence of this invasion. Which, of course, Putin said. We have reason to believe this because for people in the French foreign service who had direct access to this conversation that we don't, that's what _they_ said. If there were a direct transcript, that's what the transcript would say.

    It's not that the French foreign service was idly speculating about Putin's motives. They are summarizing the results of a direct contact between Putin and Macron.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …French foreign service was idly speculating about Putin’s motives.

    Precisely. I am not sure it was ‘idly’, but they were speculating, projecting, manipulating. Or all three.

    You are in a hole: what you claimed is not true. Stop digging, all the additional stuff you have come up with only shows that you wildly exaggerated in your original claim.

    It is touching how trusting you are of the French officials. Some people are conformist because they have to be, others because that’s just the way they are. Which flavor of conformism fits you better?

    (Your breathless doubling-down suggests that conformism is your nature. Good luck with that.)

  457. It is touching how trusting you are of the French officials. Some people are conformist because they have to be, others because that’s just the way they are. Which flavor of conformism fits you better?

    Well, in this case it has less to do with my blind faith in the competence and good intentions of the French foreign service as much as much as what they representing confirms what we knew, or at least believed beforehand.

    And lest it get swept under the rug, let’s also note that if you _are_ right, that the attack on Kiev was a diversionary ruse to improve the battlespace to where it’s easier to secure Donbass, that makes Putin and Russia’s conduct all the more worse. Because whereas Putin’s attacks on civilian population centers are obviously horrible in their own right, if Putin is intending to capture all of Ukraine then the civilian casualties are arguably collateral damage toward a military objective. But if the military objective was to secure Donbass, then the attacks on Kiev are completely superfluous and unforgiveable.

    There was an American pundit, Matthew Yglesias, who was making some point I cannot recall, and in any event he was talking about the tendency in certain quarters that we should make a better effort to understand or empathize with Putin and his motives. And I forget exactly what he was trying to conclude, but he did say that the better you understand Putin, the more evil he gets.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @Boethiuss

    Kiev is not 'all of Ukraine', the western half has been almost untouched. When you claim that the plan is 'all of Ukraine' that would include Galicia etc... that is uncorraborated.

    Collateral damage is a weird concept for the West to bring up: they invented killing civilians for the greater good - see Serbia (500+), Iraq (10,000's), Libya, Syria...you can't tell others that what is allowed for you can't happen when they are involved. There are also two sides to this: Russia claims that it is the Ukrainian 'nazis' that have caused most of the civilian casualties and have shown a few cases where that looks like that's what happened. But judging it in the middle of the war - when all sides have an incentive to not tell the truth, including Kiev - is pointless. We know for sure how many thousands have died from NATO's 'collateral damage'. Have you ever been bothered by that? Did you say anything?

    I am not in the business of assigning good and evil. For some people Tony Blair or Bush, and quite a few other characters are evil. For you it is Putin. Who knows; there is so much hypocrisy, inconsistency and lying. If some 'Yglesia' character thinks that we should care, good for him. Where was in the past? Did he ever denounced Kiev bombing its own civilians in Donbas? If not, he is either a hypocrite or a fool.

    Fools fear nothing as long as they are successful. Maybe the hysteria today is the realization that they are not succeeding.
  458. @Svidomyatheart
    They're going to start besieging cities and shelling indiscriminately after this "humanitarian corridor"

    US and MI6state department have now brought in Salafist headchoppers(the Sunni Islamists - its the 5th branch of the U.S. Armed Forces of the 21st century, along with the USArmy, USAF, USN and USMC and a tried and true favorite )

    we take what we can get but I dont think we should have Salafists in Ukraine..plus it isnt doing much for PR at all. ISIS fighting to support democracy in Ukraine. What a world




    And after all after the bombings, Putin, isnt even probably going to be rebuilding anything

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    You are talking about all the “foreign volunteers” coming into the country? I hadn’t heard that many of them are Muslim fundamentalists, but then again I hadn’t been paying much attention to that. What are you hearing?

    I don’t have a real ideological investment in this war on either side, but I hope that it’s over as quickly as possible. This is a terrible tragedy for Ukraine, and arms and foreign fighters seem to me only to make it worse for the people of Ukraine by prolonging the destruction.

  459. @Boethiuss

    It is touching how trusting you are of the French officials. Some people are conformist because they have to be, others because that’s just the way they are. Which flavor of conformism fits you better?
    Well, in this case it has less to do with my blind faith in the competence and good intentions of the French foreign service as much as much as what they representing confirms what we knew, or at least believed beforehand.

    And lest it get swept under the rug, let's also note that if you _are_ right, that the attack on Kiev was a diversionary ruse to improve the battlespace to where it's easier to secure Donbass, that makes Putin and Russia's conduct all the more worse. Because whereas Putin's attacks on civilian population centers are obviously horrible in their own right, if Putin is intending to capture all of Ukraine then the civilian casualties are arguably collateral damage toward a military objective. But if the military objective was to secure Donbass, then the attacks on Kiev are completely superfluous and unforgiveable.

    There was an American pundit, Matthew Yglesias, who was making some point I cannot recall, and in any event he was talking about the tendency in certain quarters that we should make a better effort to understand or empathize with Putin and his motives. And I forget exactly what he was trying to conclude, but he did say that the better you understand Putin, the more evil he gets.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Kiev is not ‘all of Ukraine’, the western half has been almost untouched. When you claim that the plan is ‘all of Ukraine’ that would include Galicia etc… that is uncorraborated.

    Collateral damage is a weird concept for the West to bring up: they invented killing civilians for the greater good – see Serbia (500+), Iraq (10,000’s), Libya, Syria…you can’t tell others that what is allowed for you can’t happen when they are involved. There are also two sides to this: Russia claims that it is the Ukrainian ‘nazis’ that have caused most of the civilian casualties and have shown a few cases where that looks like that’s what happened. But judging it in the middle of the war – when all sides have an incentive to not tell the truth, including Kiev – is pointless. We know for sure how many thousands have died from NATO’s ‘collateral damage’. Have you ever been bothered by that? Did you say anything?

    I am not in the business of assigning good and evil. For some people Tony Blair or Bush, and quite a few other characters are evil. For you it is Putin. Who knows; there is so much hypocrisy, inconsistency and lying. If some ‘Yglesia’ character thinks that we should care, good for him. Where was in the past? Did he ever denounced Kiev bombing its own civilians in Donbas? If not, he is either a hypocrite or a fool.

    Fools fear nothing as long as they are successful. Maybe the hysteria today is the realization that they are not succeeding.

  460. Mikel says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Daily reminder: Shock and disbelief is inevitable.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Bomb Moscow, @Mikel

    Any estimate of when we will be consumed by shock and disbelief? Weeks, months, years?

    I’m asking because I’d actually like this war to end as fast as possible, whatever the outcome, but, having trusted your predictions at the beginning, I see them coming apart with no end in sight.

  461. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    You are right about some things, wrong about others. The maps are misleading because they mostly show who controls the roads in an area.

    Crimea and Donbas officially gone, maybe some additional territories too. Ukraine will be barred from NATO but not EU, it will be heavily militarised and not “deNazifided.”
    You can't 'denazify' a country, the goal is PR for domestic audiences in Russia-Ukraine. It has some effect, most people are reluctant to march with Nazis and there is enough of that in Ukraine to make it credible. Many will also leave for Europe or be killed.

    You are wrong about 'heavily militarised': the main success for Russia has been to destroy Ukraine's weapons, air-fields, etc...anything coming in, they can also easily destroy it in the future. That's why a no-fly zone is a key variable, will NATO have the balls to go for it? It looks like Poland has pulled back.

    EU will still play games with the rump Ukraine - too poor, expensive, volatile, white, Christian conservative, lacking the resources that EU was originally interested in.

    I like the idea of Gdansk as the future port for Ukraine. There is only one problem, a large portion of the black-earth arable land ('chernozem') is in the south and east. That's where the bulk of grains for export come from. It will depend on where the boundary ends up, right now it looks like Russia is cherry-picking the best parts. This war is many things to many people, but it is also a good old-fashioned plunder. What did Kiev expect? They pushed it with the in-your-face-we-will-do-NATO-and-more...

    Replies: @AP

    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.

    Things aren’t going so well so this is off the table.

    Demilitarization is also now off the table. It means Ukraine will rebuild its air fields and build the drone making factory (joint project with Turkey already agreed upon) that fortunately had not yet been started before the war. Its infantry is already superbly armed and its Air Force will be replenished.

    I would expect Ukraine to be rebuilt using money confiscated from Russia.

    Russia will have his Crimea and Donbas. Maybe it will keep the land bridge?

    NATO will be off the table, but EU won’t be.

    Overall a massive waste, Putin is the one primarily to blame. He stupidly thought that Ukrainians would behave like Beckow, and give up right away.

    •�Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    How are they going to rebuilt military assets if Russia can blow anything that comes in? You can't hide planes, air fields, artillery or missiles. Go for it, but unless you have some magical way to protect it, it will be a sitting duck.

    EU will not change: they have no resources to support another large poor country. If it doesn't happen in the next few months - when the emotions are at their peak - it will be off the agenda. Turkey has been waiting since 1960. But you will get the gay meddlers from EU and from what I know about the Galicians that's not the way they turn. As Hitler said: I carry out my threats and break my promises. A lot of institutions in the West work roughly the same - they are very good at promising.

    The "land bridge": I suppose the big question right now is how big it will be, will it exist at all? How deep they will go inland, will they try to connect to Transdnistria? It is a massive waste that could had been avoided by Zelko saying: "we won't be in NATO". By the way, there are millions of Ukrainians who are rationally leaving, they won't be back - it is a mess and a waste.

    Replies: @AP
    , @Yevardian
    @AP


    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.
    I don't think there was any other choice, ever since a hot war was announced (or not, is Russia even officially at war with Ukraine? I don't recall any official declaration).
    I have to agree with Akarlin's take here, although its really just common sense:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1501686224075038725?cxt=HHwWioC54cPqh9cpAAAA

    But, the wisdom of emulating Serbian grand strategy aside (lol), there's still uncertainty regarding whether this was Putin's initial intention. I tend to think it wasn't, but of course, wars have a way of following their own logic and taking everyone with them. That's why I still think Putin was an imbecile to take this gamble, even with ordinary humanitarian considerations aside.
    Even if Russia 'wins' maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.

    Replies: @AP
  462. @AP
    @Beckow

    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.

    Things aren’t going so well so this is off the table.

    Demilitarization is also now off the table. It means Ukraine will rebuild its air fields and build the drone making factory (joint project with Turkey already agreed upon) that fortunately had not yet been started before the war. Its infantry is already superbly armed and its Air Force will be replenished.

    I would expect Ukraine to be rebuilt using money confiscated from Russia.

    Russia will have his Crimea and Donbas. Maybe it will keep the land bridge?

    NATO will be off the table, but EU won’t be.

    Overall a massive waste, Putin is the one primarily to blame. He stupidly thought that Ukrainians would behave like Beckow, and give up right away.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian

    How are they going to rebuilt military assets if Russia can blow anything that comes in? You can’t hide planes, air fields, artillery or missiles. Go for it, but unless you have some magical way to protect it, it will be a sitting duck.

    EU will not change: they have no resources to support another large poor country. If it doesn’t happen in the next few months – when the emotions are at their peak – it will be off the agenda. Turkey has been waiting since 1960. But you will get the gay meddlers from EU and from what I know about the Galicians that’s not the way they turn. As Hitler said: I carry out my threats and break my promises. A lot of institutions in the West work roughly the same – they are very good at promising.

    The “land bridge”: I suppose the big question right now is how big it will be, will it exist at all? How deep they will go inland, will they try to connect to Transdnistria? It is a massive waste that could had been avoided by Zelko saying: “we won’t be in NATO“. By the way, there are millions of Ukrainians who are rationally leaving, they won’t be back – it is a mess and a waste.

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    How are they going to rebuilt military assets if Russia can blow anything that comes in?
    Russia's most recent diplomatic note indicated that it was no longer insisting on demilitarization for a peace deal. Which means that in the future, when peace is established, this stuff will be rebuilt.

    It is a massive waste that could had been avoided by Zelko saying: “we won’t be in NATO“
    Russia demanded much more than just no NATO.

    EU will not change: they have no resources to support another large poor country.
    Ukraine will presumably be rebuilt with money seized from Russia plus massive aid. It will not be as poor. But it will also have to get its act together.

    Turkey has been waiting since 1960.
    Turkey has 84 million people versus Ukraine's 35 million. Turkey is much further from core Europe than is Ukraine.

    By the way, there are millions of Ukrainians who are rationally leaving, they won’t be back
    Most will return, many will not. My relatives safe in Poland and Germany, women and kids who have left their men behind to fight, all plan to return.

    The fewer people in Ukraine after this is done, the easier to integrate into Europe.
  463. @Wielgus
    @Philip Owen

    Victoria Nuland has confirmed their existence and worried about them falling into Russian hands.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    As I said above, they exist. It sounds as though not everything was cleaned out or perhaps might not have been.

  464. @AP
    @Beckow

    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.

    Things aren’t going so well so this is off the table.

    Demilitarization is also now off the table. It means Ukraine will rebuild its air fields and build the drone making factory (joint project with Turkey already agreed upon) that fortunately had not yet been started before the war. Its infantry is already superbly armed and its Air Force will be replenished.

    I would expect Ukraine to be rebuilt using money confiscated from Russia.

    Russia will have his Crimea and Donbas. Maybe it will keep the land bridge?

    NATO will be off the table, but EU won’t be.

    Overall a massive waste, Putin is the one primarily to blame. He stupidly thought that Ukrainians would behave like Beckow, and give up right away.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian

    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.

    I don’t think there was any other choice, ever since a hot war was announced (or not, is Russia even officially at war with Ukraine? I don’t recall any official declaration).
    I have to agree with Akarlin’s take here, although its really just common sense:

    But, the wisdom of emulating Serbian grand strategy aside (lol), there’s still uncertainty regarding whether this was Putin’s initial intention. I tend to think it wasn’t, but of course, wars have a way of following their own logic and taking everyone with them. That’s why I still think Putin was an imbecile to take this gamble, even with ordinary humanitarian considerations aside.
    Even if Russia ‘wins’ maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Yevardian


    Even if Russia ‘wins’ maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.
    I'm not convinced Russia will be able to invade and permanently occupy all of Ukraine (that is, end all insurgency). But either way, at the end of all this Russia along with whatever parts of Ukraine it holds will be reduced to a Chinese dependency.

    Replies: @Yevardian
  465. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    How are they going to rebuilt military assets if Russia can blow anything that comes in? You can't hide planes, air fields, artillery or missiles. Go for it, but unless you have some magical way to protect it, it will be a sitting duck.

    EU will not change: they have no resources to support another large poor country. If it doesn't happen in the next few months - when the emotions are at their peak - it will be off the agenda. Turkey has been waiting since 1960. But you will get the gay meddlers from EU and from what I know about the Galicians that's not the way they turn. As Hitler said: I carry out my threats and break my promises. A lot of institutions in the West work roughly the same - they are very good at promising.

    The "land bridge": I suppose the big question right now is how big it will be, will it exist at all? How deep they will go inland, will they try to connect to Transdnistria? It is a massive waste that could had been avoided by Zelko saying: "we won't be in NATO". By the way, there are millions of Ukrainians who are rationally leaving, they won't be back - it is a mess and a waste.

    Replies: @AP

    How are they going to rebuilt military assets if Russia can blow anything that comes in?

    Russia’s most recent diplomatic note indicated that it was no longer insisting on demilitarization for a peace deal. Which means that in the future, when peace is established, this stuff will be rebuilt.

    It is a massive waste that could had been avoided by Zelko saying: “we won’t be in NATO“

    Russia demanded much more than just no NATO.

    EU will not change: they have no resources to support another large poor country.

    Ukraine will presumably be rebuilt with money seized from Russia plus massive aid. It will not be as poor. But it will also have to get its act together.

    Turkey has been waiting since 1960.

    Turkey has 84 million people versus Ukraine’s 35 million. Turkey is much further from core Europe than is Ukraine.

    By the way, there are millions of Ukrainians who are rationally leaving, they won’t be back

    Most will return, many will not. My relatives safe in Poland and Germany, women and kids who have left their men behind to fight, all plan to return.

    The fewer people in Ukraine after this is done, the easier to integrate into Europe.

  466. AP says:
    @Yevardian
    @AP


    Putin has consistently described Ukraine as having a Nazi government. The therefore, deNazification meant removal of the Ukrainian government and purging it of nationalists (Russians think of them as Nazis). This clearly means invasion and occupation of the entire country.
    I don't think there was any other choice, ever since a hot war was announced (or not, is Russia even officially at war with Ukraine? I don't recall any official declaration).
    I have to agree with Akarlin's take here, although its really just common sense:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1501686224075038725?cxt=HHwWioC54cPqh9cpAAAA

    But, the wisdom of emulating Serbian grand strategy aside (lol), there's still uncertainty regarding whether this was Putin's initial intention. I tend to think it wasn't, but of course, wars have a way of following their own logic and taking everyone with them. That's why I still think Putin was an imbecile to take this gamble, even with ordinary humanitarian considerations aside.
    Even if Russia 'wins' maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.

    Replies: @AP

    Even if Russia ‘wins’ maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.

    I’m not convinced Russia will be able to invade and permanently occupy all of Ukraine (that is, end all insurgency). But either way, at the end of all this Russia along with whatever parts of Ukraine it holds will be reduced to a Chinese dependency.

    •�Replies: @Yevardian
    @AP

    Yes, I meant to add here, although South America, Mid-East, Africa etc probably won't bother sanctioning Russia, none of these regions really export anything of value except raw commodoties, of which Russia has plenty already. European and Japanese technology and high-level manufacturing (hardware/mechanical components, etc) are the imports that Russia actually needs.
    India has been mentioned, but other than economy of scale I don't see what it has going for it (main non-resource exports aside from scams and pajeets?). Also, if Russia enters an open, two-way military alliance with China, India is unlikely to remain so neutral.

    But it's worth mentioning this, I was seeing this for a few weeks earlier, was doubtful, but its now been openly admitted, more or less.

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r

    Replies: @AP
  467. @AP
    @Yevardian


    Even if Russia ‘wins’ maximal military objectives here (more likely than not) it will be left a Chinese economic dependency.
    I'm not convinced Russia will be able to invade and permanently occupy all of Ukraine (that is, end all insurgency). But either way, at the end of all this Russia along with whatever parts of Ukraine it holds will be reduced to a Chinese dependency.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Yes, I meant to add here, although South America, Mid-East, Africa etc probably won’t bother sanctioning Russia, none of these regions really export anything of value except raw commodoties, of which Russia has plenty already. European and Japanese technology and high-level manufacturing (hardware/mechanical components, etc) are the imports that Russia actually needs.
    India has been mentioned, but other than economy of scale I don’t see what it has going for it (main non-resource exports aside from scams and pajeets?). Also, if Russia enters an open, two-way military alliance with China, India is unlikely to remain so neutral.

    But it’s worth mentioning this, I was seeing this for a few weeks earlier, was doubtful, but its now been openly admitted, more or less.

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r

    •�Replies: @AP
    @Yevardian


    But it’s worth mentioning this, I was seeing this for a few weeks earlier, was doubtful, but its now been openly admitted, more or less.
    Ukraine inherited a lot of biolabs from the USSR, which the USA "took over." They do pharma research there. This wasn't a secret. Has it become the latest Q-anon conspiracy now?

    From August:

    https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/ukraine-may-become-european-hub-for-clinical-trials-of-original-western-drugs

    Ukraine may become European hub for clinical trials of original Western drugs
  468. AP says:
    @Yevardian
    @AP

    Yes, I meant to add here, although South America, Mid-East, Africa etc probably won't bother sanctioning Russia, none of these regions really export anything of value except raw commodoties, of which Russia has plenty already. European and Japanese technology and high-level manufacturing (hardware/mechanical components, etc) are the imports that Russia actually needs.
    India has been mentioned, but other than economy of scale I don't see what it has going for it (main non-resource exports aside from scams and pajeets?). Also, if Russia enters an open, two-way military alliance with China, India is unlikely to remain so neutral.

    But it's worth mentioning this, I was seeing this for a few weeks earlier, was doubtful, but its now been openly admitted, more or less.

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r

    Replies: @AP

    But it’s worth mentioning this, I was seeing this for a few weeks earlier, was doubtful, but its now been openly admitted, more or less.

    Ukraine inherited a lot of biolabs from the USSR, which the USA “took over.” They do pharma research there. This wasn’t a secret. Has it become the latest Q-anon conspiracy now?

    From August:

    https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/ukraine-may-become-european-hub-for-clinical-trials-of-original-western-drugs

    Ukraine may become European hub for clinical trials of original Western drugs

  469. @Yellowface Anon
    https://twitter.com/henrysgao/status/1501055353785511939

    They will start secondary sanctions on Chinese businesses and financial institutions, and then tertiary (!) sanctions on whoever doing business amicably with them, to kickstart hard decoupling from China.

    A 2nd repeat of the American oil embargo on Japan in 1939.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon

    The sanctions trap just got pushed forward. (Use proxies.)

  470. From now on only crucified boys by UA army will be allowed in new threads, because everything is going according to the plan and confdence in quick victory is up further through the roof 😉

    Poor Karlin is so shell shocked atm that he deleted this comment from his new censorshiped thread, lol

    Inviting everybody to continue post “inconvenient truths” in this thread as he cannot enforce his deranged party line and there is still enough room.

  471. Russia did all of this so that Ukraine doesn’t become a NATO member, or de facto NATO member. To enforce their red line on the matter, which has been ignored time and again. The main point here is that nobody can say the Russians are all talk on the issue. So, mission accomplished. Assuming Russia is ready to do all of this over again if needed. Which is entirely up to them.

    It will be impossible for Ukraine to be a de facto NATO member if Russia just goes in and wrecks the place periodically. Demolition is a lot cheaper than construction.

    The Ukrainians are the weak link here. Of course US doesn’t mind if Ukraine gets wrecked on a consistent basis, but I’m guessing the Ukrainians do. The Russians will probably learn from this experience, and wreck Ukraine more efficiently the next time around.

    The good news is that Ukraine can easily determine how much suffering they take, going forward.

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