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    Gensini Deck

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    This document discusses extreme weather events in the past, present and future. It explores the science behind storms and how climate change is influencing weather patterns. The author examines topics like how climate change is making storms more severe, the ingredients that lead to hazardous weather, and how numerical modeling can help predict storms and climate impacts at local scales. Research is showing that climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of some extreme weather events.

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    Gensini Deck

    Uploaded by

    Natalie
    50 views43 pages
    This document discusses extreme weather events in the past, present and future. It explores the science behind storms and how climate change is influencing weather patterns. The author examines topics like how climate change is making storms more severe, the ingredients that lead to hazardous weather, and how numerical modeling can help predict storms and climate impacts at local scales. Research is showing that climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of some extreme weather events.

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    This document discusses extreme weather events in the past, present and future. It explores the science behind storms and how climate change is influencing weather patterns. The author examines topics like how climate change is making storms more severe, the ingredients that lead to hazardous weather, and how numerical modeling can help predict storms and climate impacts at local scales. Research is showing that climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of some extreme weather events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    50 views43 pages

    Gensini Deck

    Uploaded by

    Natalie
    This document discusses extreme weather events in the past, present and future. It explores the science behind storms and how climate change is influencing weather patterns. The author examines topics like how climate change is making storms more severe, the ingredients that lead to hazardous weather, and how numerical modeling can help predict storms and climate impacts at local scales. Research is showing that climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of some extreme weather events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 43

    Extreme Weather: The Science Behind

    Past, Present and Future Storms

    6 November 2022 Vittorio (Victor) Gensini, PhD, CCM
    Dr. Walker Ashley
    NIU Weather, Climate, and Society  Ph.D. University of Georgia
    PTP; PRP; CCM #668
    Research Group mesoscale meteorology, atmospheric 
    hazards, and disasters

    wcs.niu.edu
    Dr. Victor Gensini
    Ph.D. University of Georgia
    Associate Professor; CCM #752
    MET Undergraduate Coordinator
    severe weather climatology and prediction

    Dr. Allison Michaelis
    Ph.D. N.C. State University
    Assistant Professor
    Climate change and tropical 
    meteorology

    Dr. Alex Haberlie
    Ph.D. NIU
    Assistant Professor
    Artificial intelligence in the atmospheric 
    sciences
    ~

    Updated from Hansen et al. (2001)


    Corn crop destroyed east of Cedar Rapids (Matt Rogers)
    Source: NASA Terra satellite MODIS imager 
    Hurricane Ian
    May 20, 2013 – Moore, OK

    EF5, 24 fatalities, 246 injuries


    Is climate change to blame? Why did it hit without warning?
    ; IEXLIVMW]SYVQ SSH

    'PMQ EXIMW]SYVTIVWSREPMX]

    =SYVQ SSH VMKLXRS[ MWRSXERMRHMGEXSV


    SJ]SYVTIVWSREPMX]
    Climate is changing rapidly compared to the pace of natural variations 
    in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history
    • It is real
    • It is not a belief system
    • Earth‐atmosphere is complex and difficult to study
    • There is uncertainty, and we are first to admit it
    • Yes, climate has changed in past; this is different
    • Fossil fuels enhance the greenhouse effect
    • Change is complex, and varies across scales
    • Change is occurring rapidly, and we do not 
    understand implications fully
    • We are the cause ↑ 1.0°C (1.8° F) since 1850
    Most of that warming has occurred since 1975
    28 April 1899: Kirksville, MO 27 April 2011: Birmingham, AL
    Storm eports have caveats…

    Tippett, M. K., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous
    convective weather. Cur. Climate Change Rep. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6
    Ingredients Based Approach

    Apples Shear of the vertical wind


    Sugar Lift
    Flour Instability
    Egg Moisture
    Johns, R. H., & Doswell, C. A. (1992). Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Weather Forecasting, 7, 588-612.
    Global tornado environments

    Tippett, M. K., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous
    convective weather. Cur. Climate Change Rep.,1 (2),60–73.DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6
    Gensini, V. A., and H. E. Brooks, 2018: Spatial trends in United States
    tornado activity. npj Climate and Atmos. Science., 1, 1–5.
    DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2
    Numerical Weather Prediction
    Dynamical Downscaling

    • Work in this area is needed for climate change attribution and local
    studies of weather/climate impacts.
    • Cannot assess local impacts with global climate models configured to
    assess global change.
    The Expanding Bull’s-eye Effect

    Ashley, W. S., S. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Spatiotemporal changes in tornado
    hazard exposure: The case of the expanding bull's eye effect in Chicago, IL. Weather, Climate, and
    Society, 6, 175-193.
    1920 Southern Barnegat Bay Island in 1920 and 2012. The bay side of the island used 
    to be buffered by a natural beach environment before people began constructing 
    houses and businesses on the island.

    Disasters are socially constructed!

    “disasters are not ‘natural,’ 
    but socially constructed 
    events which are 
    influenced by demographic 
    and socio‐economic 
    characteristics, social and 
    cultural norms, prejudices 
    and values”  
    ‐Squires and Hartman 
    2006

    Source: NOAA Southern Barnegat Bay Island, New Jersey
    1920
    2012 Southern Barnegat Bay Island in 1920 and 2012. The bay side of the island used 
    to be buffered by a natural beach environment before people began constructing 
    houses and businesses on the island.

    Disasters are socially constructed!

    “disasters are not ‘natural,’ 
    but socially constructed 
    events which are 
    influenced by demographic 
    and socio‐economic 
    characteristics, social and 
    cultural norms, prejudices 
    and values”  
    ‐Squires and Hartman 
    2006

    Source: NOAA Southern Barnegat Bay Island, New Jersey
    Southwest Omaha 1984‐2016

    earthengine.google.com/timelapse
    Wisconsin Tornado Housing Unit Impacts 
    Simulated 10,000 years of tornado paths
    My take on climate change…
    Forecast Rain?

    Y N

    Rain Occur?

    37
    Climate change?

    Y N

    Climate impacts?

    38
    Storm Sensationalism
    Thank you for your support! 
    Questions?
    [email protected]

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