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Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked
Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.
Kamala Harris overwhelmingly impressed voters in her debate with Donald J. Trump, a new set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College found, but she has failed so far to seize a decisive advantage in the presidential campaign.
The race is deadlocked nationally. Yet in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris has a lead of four percentage points — a slight edge that is unchanged since early August. She has reassembled much of the core Democratic coalition in the state, winning the support of Black voters, younger voters and women there.
[Combined, the two polls are a bit of a puzzle, Nate Cohn writes.]
The vice president received far stronger reviews of her debate performance last week than did Mr. Trump, with 67 percent of U.S. likely voters saying she did well compared with 40 percent for him. A majority of voters in every racial group, age bracket and education level — even white voters without a college degree, who are typically the former president’s most loyal demographic — gave her a positive review.
But even that was not enough to jostle a race that appears destined to become a battle of inches this fall, after a summer of tumult and upheaval.
Nationally, Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are knotted at 47 percent. In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris leads, 50 percent to 46 percent. The surveys were conducted almost entirely before the second apparent assassination attempt against Mr. Trump last Sunday.
How the polls compare
National | Pa. | |
---|---|---|
Times/Inquirer/Siena Likely voters Sept. 11–16 | Even | Harris +4 |
Polling average voters As of 5 a.m. Sept. 19 | Harris +3 | Harris +2 |
Fox News/Beacon & Shaw Likely voters Sept. 13–16 | Harris +2 | No poll |
Ipsos/ABC News Likely voters Sept. 11–13 | Harris +6 | No poll |
AtlasIntel Likely voters Sept. 11–12 | Trump +3 | No poll |
Ipsos/Reuters Registered voters Sept. 11–12 | Harris +5 | No poll |
Marist College Likely voters Sept. 12–17 | No poll | Even |
Quinnipiac University Likely voters Sept. 12–16 | No poll | Harris +5 |
Suffolk University/USA Today Likely voters Sept. 11–14 | No poll | Harris +3 |
How polls have changed since the debate
National | Margin Pre-Debate | Margin Post-Debate |
---|---|---|
Times/Inquirer/Siena Among likely voters nationwide | Trump +2 | Even |
Polling average Among all recent national polls | Harris +3 | Harris +3 |
Pennsylvania | Margin Pre-Debate | Margin Post-Debate |
---|---|---|
Times/Inquirer/Siena Among likely voters in Pennsylvania | Harris +4 | Harris +4 |
Polling average Among all recent Pennsylvania polls | Harris <1 | Harris +2 |
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