Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump
Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
If the polls miss in Harris’s favor
Harris could easily prevail if the polls are underestimating her. For example, state polls underestimated Democrats in the 2022 midterms, and they could also miss in that direction this year. Here’s a possible scenario.
If the polls miss in Trump’s favor
Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. Here’s one possibility.
Across the seven swing states that are likely to decide the outcome of this election, the polls are so remarkably close that neither candidate has a meaningful edge in this final stretch. But if the polls are off even by a small margin, it’s possible either candidate could sweep most or all of these states. You can explore all possible scenarios and see the potential paths to victory here. Updated Nov. 4
States are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.
Swing states
| Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
| 19 E.V. | Even | D +1 | R <1 |
| 6 E.V. | Even | D +2 | D +2 |
| 16 E.V. | Even | R +1 | R +4 |
| 15 E.V. | Harris <1 | D +3 | R <1 |
| 10 E.V. | Harris +1 | D <1 | R <1 |
| 16 E.V. | Trump +1 | D <1 | R +5 |
| 11 E.V. | Trump +3 | D <1 | R +4 |
We now have enough polls to generate an average in Iowa, after a new poll from the well-regarded pollster J. Ann Selzer. That poll finds Harris up three percentage points. With that poll included, our Iowa average has Trump ahead by three percentage points, which puts it in line with the core battleground states. Updated Nov. 4
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
| Biggest recent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | Range of polling miss |
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) |
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond. You can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters.
| Loading... |
The polls have shifted toward Trump over the last few weeks. But over the last few days, there were signs that the race had begun to swing a bit back toward Harris. Marist College, YouGov, Muhlenberg College and The Washington Post found her narrowly up in Pennsylvania. Then there was the Selzer poll showing her leading by three points in Iowa. Finally, the last wave of New York Times/Siena College polls showed her with a narrow edge in the key battlegrounds. But historically, late shifts in the polls do not necessarily carry through to predict how the polls will err on Election Day. Updated Nov. 4
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Harris; to the right, for Trump.
| Current margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Harris +1 | 53 | |
| Wis. | Harris +1 | 23 | |
| Mich. | Harris <1 | 30 | |
| Pa. | Even | 29 | |
| Nev. | Even | 16 | |
| N.C. | Even | 18 | |
| Ga. | Trump +1 | 17 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +3 | 23 |
Harris’s gains in the last few days came as the political conversation turned toward Trump’s liabilities. While the news and the polls have helped give the Harris campaign a sense of momentum heading into Election Day, the overall effect on the averages has been relatively minimal. Updated Nov. 5
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
Overall, the race remains deadlocked. The national polls have become extremely close, raising the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote. And Harris’s once clear-but-modest lead in the so-called blue wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan has all but evaporated. In the end, the voters, not the polls, will soon have the final say. Updated Nov. 4
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Dan Simmons-Ritchie, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.