Happy 2025!!! Hope yours is off to a good start.
Why Do We All Watch a Ball Drop to Celebrate the New Year? Vice
People Are Sharing Subtly Weird Parts Of Life In America, And Even As Someone From The US, I’m Thinking Twice About Some Of These BuzzFeed (Kevin W)
Ants Perform Better As a Group Than Humans When Trying to Solve the ‘Piano Mover’s Puzzle’ Laughing Squid
A practical, biomimetic, one-pot synthesis of firefly luciferin Nature (Micael T)
Missing dog returns home, rings doorbell BoingBoing
#COVID-19/Pandemics
Nearly 1M chickens test positive for bird flu at Darke County egg producer Dayton Daily News
Climate/Environment
Science and realism’: Governments plan for doomsday climate scenarios USA Today
World endures ‘decade of deadly heat’ as 2024 caps hottest years on record Guardian
After a few days of La Niña induced relief, we're back above pre-2023 daily record global Sea Surface Temperatures… https://t.co/yck98QPmgJ pic.twitter.com/Hyw0wpurHY
— Leon Simons (is fine) (@LeonSimons8) December 30, 2024
China?
Will China’s Massive Dam Project Spark A Water War With India? India Today
Chuck L courteously sent the link for the article discussed below: A New Type of Political Party System That Has Grown Out of Chinese Soil Qiushi:
Many people dismiss China as a one-party state but the reality is actually much more nuanced than this.
As I've often argued you cannot possibly understand something – let alone criticize it – if you don't also understand it from the standpoint of those who defend it. Meaning,…
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) December 31, 2024
Rupiah Intervention Shows EM’s Strong-Dollar Headache Bloomberg
Koreas
South Korea poised to crash and burn in 2025 Asia Times (Kevin W)
Africa
From Sudan to the Sahel, War Spreads in Africa in 2024 Foreign Policy
European Disunion
Ukraine to end transit of Russian gas to EU BBC (Kevin W). In case you missed it.
Russia’s Gazprom stops gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine as transit deal expires TASS (guurst)
EU prepares to launch energy war The Duran, YouTube
Gas trading days in Europe end at 08:00 Moscow time. By the time you read this post, the gas flow may have already stopped.
During trading hours, gas prices in Europe rose to $536 per 1,000 cubic meters ahead of the expected halt in Russian gas transit through Ukraine, 👇 pic.twitter.com/VqEYEtHcnq
— Djole 🇷🇸 (@onlydjole) January 1, 2025
New French finance minister eyes 2025 deficit slightly above 5% Reuters
Old Blighty
Starmer asks UK regulators for ideas to boost growth BBC. Kill me now.
Keir Starmer vows to rebuild Britain as Labour did after second world war Guardian (Kevin W)
Retailers face collapse as costs rocket and High St distress levels soar 25% after Budget This is Money
Climate change will devastate value of homes, warns Bank of England Telegraph
Israel v. The Resistance
Winter rains worsen horrors faced by displaced Palestinians in Gaza Aljazeera
Rain, hunger, displacement under the threat of annihilation. Their homes pulverised. Israel blocking all basic survival supplies. https://t.co/tli7v9aqxq
— Nicola Perugini (@PeruginiNic) January 1, 2025
In Gaza’s crowded tent camps, women wrestle with a life stripped of privacy Independent
* * * Hamas, Israel have reached an impasse in hostage negotiations, Arab mediators tell WSJ Jerusalem Post. Oddly not prominent at the Journal’s site.
Half of Iran’s industrial capacity halted by energy crisis Iran International
Iraq still negotiating with mediator to ensure Turkmen gas delivery Iraqi News
Syraqistan
Syria official’s comments on women spark uproar New Arab
Iran objects to Afghanistan’s construction of Pashdan Dam on Harirud Tehran Times
New Not-So-Cold War
America Needs a Maximum Pressure Strategy in Ukraine Foreign Affairs. And I would like a pony.
Finland Finds Anchor Drag Marks Left by Tanker That Broke Cables Bloomberg
Sweden’s opposition wants NATO article invoked after cable break Euronews
The Greatness of the Russian Army: Real results of 2024 Marat Khairullin. Unabashedly partisan. I trust readers can discount for that.
Do click through for details:
🇺🇸💥🇺🇦💥🇷🇺‼️Elon Musk is the main culprit for the defeat of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, Ukrainians claim‼️
Former colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Oleg Starikov, in an interview with political analyst Mihail Karasev, analyzed in detail the reasons 👇 pic.twitter.com/gdiLG5PvrB
— Djole 🇷🇸 (@onlydjole) December 31, 2024
Big Brother is Watching You Watch
Gift Card Fraud Bruce Schneier
Imperial Collapse Watch
Middle Powers Revisited: “Good Citizens” of the World Majority Russia in Global Affairs (Micael T). From a couple of months ago. Still germane.
Who’d want to survive a nuclear war? Spectator
GOP Clown Car
Chip Roy on Johnson: ‘I don’t believe he has the votes’ The Hill
At least 10 killed, dozens injured as truck crashes into New Orleans crowd Aljazeera
Chief Justice Roberts condemns elected officials for intimidating judges The Hill (Kevin W)
Breaking: The lawsuit v Pfizer by TX Attorney General, Ken Paxton is dismissed Sasha Latypova
Immigration
Li from Dec 31: “Bannon and Batya are live ranting right now”:
Bannon: The program, from top to bottom, is a scam and a con. The workers here under this program should be deported, just like the 15 million we’ll start deporting on the afternoon of January 20th. Deport them now, and hire American citizens with the same skill set. pic.twitter.com/0Gw6iMYveJ
— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) December 30, 2024
Steve Bannon bashes Elon Musk and makes bold new demand as MAGA row over migrant visas escalates Daily Mail
Tech Giants Secure Work Visas For Tens Of Thousands Of Foreigners While Kicking Existing Employees To The Curb Daily Caller
Our No Longer Free Press
Russia Slams EU for Blocking State Media on Telegram, Vows Retaliation News Central
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Soar Ahead of Historic Cold Front OilPrice (Kevin W)
The Depletion Paradox Natural Resource Market Insights. We reported many years ago, based on expert views then, that shale gas production would peak in the mid-later 2020s, and decline gradually for a few years, then suddenly. It looks like the peak arrived early.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak Wolf Richter (Li)
Class Warfare
when did the Washington Post hire Marie Antoinette as a columnist pic.twitter.com/FlyVZIDzJs
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) December 31, 2024
US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010 Financial Times
Antidote du jour. Tracie H: “Female Mallard duck. She doesn’t want to get her eyes wet if she doesn’t have to.”
And a bonus (Chuck L):
Someone brought an RC car to the dog park.. 😊 pic.twitter.com/SDprEFPFty
— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) December 31, 2024
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
“The Depletion Paradox”
There is a geopolitical aspect to this mentioned by The Duran in the video in Links today called “EU prepares to launch energy war”. Supposing, just supposing that depletion of gas in the US becomes obvious and prices start to rise. Consider too that the EU has just got the Ukraine to entirely cut themselves off Russian gas which means that gas supply for the EU become more difficult and prices rise. Add the fact that the EU wants to stop all imports of Russian gas even though ironically Russian gas imports into the EU have risen. Finally consider that the EU has picked a deliberate fight with Qatar who is a critical supplier of gas to the EU meaning that Qatar might give the EU the chop. So think about this scenario. Gas is being rapidly depleted in the US and prices start to skyrocket. Trump is still President so Trump does what he did in the past – stop all gas exports to the EU and keep it in the US to bring down gas prices. Since the EU is to a large extent dependent on US gas and Trump is presently demanding that the EU imports more, they are absolutely and totally screwed. To make things worse, the unelected, unaccountable EU leadership will refuse to ask the Russians to sell the EU more gas as that would offend their sensibilities.
Well, Trump still has one Trump card to play, it won’t be long before permits will be issued for drilling on Federal lands, and then it’s a matter of how fast the industry can set up their rigs for what’s possibly the “Free World”‘s last hurrah.
So what if he does? Wells take lots of time to construct and even more time to develop (well development is the process of increasing transmission of fluids into a well through chemical and mechanical means). Assuming there are viable oil-gas reserves in the newly permitted areas, and that construction materials are readily available, both of which which are grossly optimistic assumptions, production is years away. The benefits of this scheme, if there are any, would most likely appear in the next administration.
It takes years, even decades to go from access to discovery to drilling to full production. M. King Hubbert accurately predicted US peak oil (pre-fracking) would be 30 years after peak discovery. This exceeds Trump’s, and the American public’s, attention span.
Could all this be a Biden Team plot to saddle America w/exploding gas prices just as Trump takes office? Maybe Trump should one up them by offering to buyout Europe’s gas contract w/Qatar and lifting US sanctions on Russian energy. Also, If he can find some “national security emergency” reason maybe he can terminate those energy sanctions unilaterally by Presidential decree. After all, corporations are people and have a constitutional right to buy Russian energy if they want. John Robert’s & the Supremes said so.
Doomberg , who are usually very good at this sort of thing, have a very different view of natural gas supplies in the US and elsewhere for that matter. Gas prices have recently increased with oil prices decreasing to adjust the ratio back to the long term average, it had got very skewed.
Gas consumption for electricity generation was inconsequential 25 years ago, now it is the major fuel source. It cannot be easily replaced. Doomberg comment seems like the one made by silver bugs that gold:silver relationship means something.
The conclusion of the article says it all:
What happens is the US will mirror EU’s slide without cheap Russian pipeline gas. It will be telling if the big data center projects for AI continue at the planned rates. Gas and electricity prices are set on the margin. In NYS between data centers, CHIPS act and forced electrification it will be interesting few years.
That article did not appear to discuss whether novel technologies could materially increase production from existing wells. The article linked below discusses that possibility:
“The DoE estimates that next-generation CO2-EOR has the potential to produce over 60 billion barrels of oil that would otherwise be left trapped in the rocks. It would take around 13 years for U.S. producers to pump that volume of oil at the current clip of ~13 million barrels per day.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-American-Shale-Patch-Is-All-About-Depletion-Now.html
So now the groundwater contamination will produce ‘fizzie’ water?
The goal here is to eventually reidrect Russian gas production from Europe and from internal Russian consumption towards the US.
p.s. BERLINER ZEITUNG on this issue yesterday – containing this beautiful reminder:
“From March 2025, forwarding of LNG from Russia to non-EU countries, so-called transshipment transactions, is to be banned.”
There is serious doubt suppliers will follow suit. We´ll see.
German version:
https://archive.is/vsBlc
“(…) Despite sanctions: Europe imports record amounts of Russian LNG – “too attractive”
The EU wanted to break away from Russian energy. But in 2024, LNG imports reached a record high – and dependence could continue to rise in 2025
Turning away from Russian gas is one of the European Union’s declared goals. But 2024 went differently than planned: Europe imported more Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) than ever before. Instead of reducing dependence, the amount rose to a new record high.
As early as 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU announced that it would completely abandon fossil fuels from Russia by 2027. While imports of oil and coal are now banned and pipeline gas deliveries have almost come to a standstill, a different trend is emerging for LNG: According to an analysis by data provider Kpler, reported by the British daily Financial Times, the EU had already imported 16.5 million tonnes of Russian LNG by mid-December 2024 – more than in any previous year. For comparison: In the whole of 2023, it was around 15.2 million tonnes.
LNG: France doubled its imports from Russia
The reason for this increase is the low prices. Deliveries from the Yamal terminal, Russia’s most important LNG hub, are considerably cheaper than alternatives from the USA or Qatar. At the same time, the share of short-term spot market transactions is growing: 33 percent of Russian LNG imports into the EU were handled via spot contracts in 2024 – a significant increase compared to 23 percent in the previous year.
But European LNG relations are also under pressure outside of Russia. Qatar, one of the EU’s most important LNG suppliers, is facing challenges from a new EU directive on CO₂ emissions and human rights. As the Berliner Zeitung previously reported, Qatar is threatening to stop deliveries if the directive places excessive burdens on the energy exporter. Such a conflict could further increase Europe’s dependence on Russian LNG.
France is particularly active in taking advantage of the cheap offers from Russia: the country has almost doubled its imports of Russian LNG compared to the previous year. The terminals in Dunkirk and Zeebrugge play a key role in this: they not only supply France, but also serve as a hub for deliveries to other parts of the EU and beyond.
Analyst: “Russian LNG is still too attractive”
The paradox remains: while the EU is geopolitically distancing itself from Russia, economic considerations continue to secure high revenues for the Russian energy industry. Despite the ongoing imports, the EU’s political goal of ending dependence on Russian energy supplies remains. From March 2025, forwarding of LNG from Russia to non-EU countries, so-called transshipment transactions, is to be banned.
But the economic realities are making the change of course difficult: “Russian LNG is still too attractive to rule it out completely,” as Christoph Halser, analyst at the energy research company Rystad Energy, is quoted as saying in the Financial Times report. This trend is unlikely to change much in 2025. According to the portal Montel, which specializes in energy markets, analysts are again expecting a record year for Russian LNG in Europe. The reasons: demand remains high and alternatives such as LNG from Qatar or the USA are still more expensive. (…)”
And they could turn on the surviving Nordstream 2 line at any time. They will probably wait until a US firm has snatched it.
‘At the same time, the share of short-term spot market transactions is growing’
That was at the EU’s insistence. Russia preferred long-term contracts to give the market predictability but before the war the EU was demanding that the switch be made to spot markets. Of course because of the war the spot markets went crazy and now the EU is forced to pay bigger bills for the same gas but at least a lot of people in the gas markets are now getting big commissions so there is that.
That was what … summer 2021?
Und Deutschland…?
I’m imagining a colder winter now than last, and it becoming quite clear that ukr war will end with surrender. Eu pop already quite restive, anti eu parties growing stronger. And as it is previous us to eu lng shipments at times tripled us gas price. The eu squeeze might start this winter. Imo eu leadership is unstable, certainly in France/germany, maybe Italy too.
Us mischief was intended to weaken Russia, it’s ended up strengthening Russia, driving Russia and China together, and pushing eu into a death spiral, all of which weakens the west. And there’s no relief from western incompetent leadership in sight as friedman’s disastrous neolib does its work.
As long as humans are in charge, you will have incompetent leadership. Ants should be in charge. They do things right.
I’m no antist, but while I respect their work ethic if they are put in charge, as soon as one of the people they are bossing around takes a lunch break and leaves some crumbs management will race over and mob the food. Not a good look. Now bees…………
Gorozen, the site hosting “The Depletion Paradox”, is generally an excellent source of energy/economic analysis.
Another site I’ve come to trust is Gail Tverberg’s Our Finite World.
For example, this insight from Ms. Tverberg: the oil supply is running out, and we have global warming, but the societal managers are using global warming to sell the energy transition because “global warming” doesn’t cause a panic reaction, while “no more oil” is fundamentally more scary.
Antidote bonus…that is a sinister plan by an evil person. Don’t tease those doggies that way!! \sarc
I was recently watching a movie over the Christmas holiday, where a bunch of weight lifting goofs attempt to steal from a rich Miami guy….it featured a greyhound racing track and the unfortunate temporarily stolen dog finds his way back, which helps to tip off the police ….This movie advertises during the movie ” this is mostly a true story…”. Pain and Gain was a hilarious tale of the criminal mishaps and blunt stupidity.
“Why Do We All Watch a Ball Drop to Celebrate the New Year?”
Sometimes you just want to get the year over and done with and just want that ball to drop-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqC28Py8S8M (22 secs)
We ALL don’t watch the ball drop. I didn’t watch it.
I watch it for about two minutes until that annoying New York, New York song kicks in. Vanity thy name is NYC.
NYC is so amazing. New Yorkers are always talking about these wild, crazy places called…get this…”bodegas,” where you can exchange money for goods and services. Whoa! Slow down, you’re blowing my mind, dude! Gosh, I wish we had something like that where I live!
Crazy yeah those used to be called convenience stores before the Brooklyn hipsters decided to use a Spanish word. TBH I love those stores in NYC because there’s always something odd going on and a beer is like $15 and they put it in a bag like you’re a hobo.
Since you’re paying for the bagged beer ‘hobo’ is an accurate description. A hobo is a traveler who works, on occasion. A tramp or bum couldn’t afford to enter a bodega :)
It’s been used in NYC since the 1950s.
1956
There is not really a section [of New York City] that is to Puerto Ricans what Harlem is to Negroes. Almost every sector of the city has a bodega (grocery) or two, and perhaps a Spanish-language movie house.
Time 2 July 58 Citation details for Time
https://www.oed.com/dictionary/bodega_n#1271569800
Not in my former ‘hood. All done in, mainly by bank branches.
In Manhattan, below 96th Street, they used to call them “Koreans”. But most killed by rising rents and competition from 24 hour drugstores that sold essentials like cigarettes, batteries, diapers and toilet paper, eggs, OJ, soda, and now even bottled coffee and kombuchas.
Why do YOU ALL watch a ball drop etc.
And in our next item… People Are Sharing Subtly Weird Parts Of Life In America, And Even As Someone From The US, I’m Thinking Twice About Some Of These
Lol, only tourists watch the ball drop. Here in my quiet little corner the festivities were subdued.
We moved to the US in 95 and since then this ball has been a weird curiosity that I never got as far as researching. Culture shock involved for us adapting to a wide range of “Subtly Weird Parts Of Life In America”. Now, thanks to Vice I know about time balls.
We quickly saw that America must be a communist country because the roads are in dreadful condition and everyone is waving or displaying flags. When I inquired about this I found few that recognized the joke so that was a hint to me that maybe the theory was flawed and beliefs in state ideology may run a little deeper here than they did in 80s Hungary. I’d say things have changed a little bit since then.
I definitely felt #8, as I lived there without a car for years. Your destination might be less than a block away, but if it’s on the other side of a major road, there might be literally no way for you to get there except for hitching a ride with someone. (There are exceptions, like Manhattan).
Super Bowl Sunday. There’s always a party and everyone goes, whether they like football or not. Hardly anybody pays attention to the game, but everyone watches the ads when they come on.
Re: the roads, I lived in a state that was famous for local government corruption and the roads were notoriously bad. One of the potholes on a bridge got so bad that it went right through and you could see the water below (that one made the news and actually got fixed, but that’s about what it took). You knew exactly when you left the state when you were driving, because the rumbling and bumping stopped and you were suddenly driving on flat, smooth asphalt.
That’s how I felt. I couldn’t wait to display and begin my new calendars.
I have to admit I looked at the stove clock about 1:30 am and for half a second tried to remember if I needed to move it an hour ahead or back.
Calendars are cool.
Balls have been dropping off all over Europe but very few seem to have noticed. Maybe attention will pick up after a few thousand people die of sanctions induced hypothemia.
Who is “we”, Kemosabe?
New Orleans headline this is the lead story this morning on the national news …A heavy crowded street into and following any New Year’s parties and celebrating the calendar turning…Out with the old and in with the new, except for this headline story of a violent act against a defenseless crowd.
Oh and by a mere coincidence, in college sports there is a highly valued Sugar Bowl contest this evening between two powerhouse programs, Georgia vs Notre Dame. So if possible the city and central entertainment districts are likely even more crowded by travelling fan base and rabid supporters of those football teams.
Just got to the French Quarter to go to work on Bourbon and the cops have the whole of Bourbon street shut down by where I work.
Today is one of the biggest money days of the year.
Lots of workers getting royally fucked today!
And now this very important quarter-final game in the college “bowl championship series” has been postponed for 24 hours (or so). The hotels where the players are staying are on “lockdown” in the interest of “public safety.”
One can only imagine the retribution touchdown jesus will take on alejandro mayorkas for visiting this immigrant scourge on the mighty american new year customs and traditions, not to mention the plethora of newly minted internet sports gaming “entrepreneurs” whose leg breakers will undoubtedly be out gunnin’ for him.
Oh well. “Shit happens.”
Speaking of which, what ever happened to those very scary drones over NJ? I guess they couldn’t figure out a way for them to eff up the college football schedule. They’ll probably be back for MLK day if they can figure out a racist angle…
Yuuuuup.
Unfortunately for the Conspirationaly Minded, (I am often in that number,) the perpetrator was an American born citizen from Texas. And an Army veteran.
What do you make of the ISIS flag?
Is that a plant?
I think it was the Syrian flag!
The new one with Palestine colors and 3 stars?
Should be a every day headline from the Israel Times (/Sarc)
We are all GAZAns now!
I can try keeping up, but as often pointed out by our own and shortly departing Lambert…like drinking from a firehose the plethora of data points and anecdotes…
One more across the transom. As the news below shows.
https://www.wdsu.com/article/tesla-cybertruck-explodes-in-front-of-trump-hotel-in-vegas/63316851
“Half of Iran’s industrial capacity halted by energy crisis”
Wait! I’ve got an idea. I just happen to know of a source of gas that has come onto the market just now to the tune of 42.4 million cubic meters worth. And I also happen to know that the country that has all this suddenly available gas just happens to border Iran. And if that gas went to Iran, it would boost their economy allowing them to pay for that gas more easily. Sounds like a plan to me.
OKOn a more serious note, I’d like to see Russia and China take an interest in solving Iran’s energy problems. Or else Iran might go the way of Syria. There have been headlines Israel is planning to step up attacks on Iran and it will be easier for her to do so with Syria gone. Of course it’s possible Turkey & Israel will be butting heads which will keep Israel busy and Turkey is more formidable than any Israel has dealt with, but that’s speculation.
For this thread specifically, while Iran clearly needs more work and investment on its energy infrastructure, there are a couple things where it’s easy to start from a mistaken premise.
First off, I would be very skeptical of the details in this story. Iran International (and Iran Wire is another one I think) are essentially anti-government websites based in the West. Like if you just skim the front page, they literally don’t describe a single good thing happening in the entire country; in short, it’s a FUD factory / concern-troll den. They claim this was from a Tasnim interview, but google / DuckDuckGo for the interviewee return nothing but an echo chamber of other oppo sites. It’s possibly legit but never indexed, Tasnim possibly took it down (obviously they have their own bias), but it also could just be largely made up.
More realistically, and one of the big things people seem to be missing in analyses of Syria, is that Iran is Turkey’s #2 supplier of natural gas and indirectly (unless you assume Iraq just magically pumped more to make up exactly Iran’s share after 2018) its #2 supplier of crude oil. Oh, and Russia is #1:
From the Carnegie Endowment
So on the one hand, Iran has way more leverage when negotiating disagreements with the Turkish government behind the scenes than people seem to account for. But for the exact same reason, they probably have to prioritize exports to Turkey at times even when it hurts domestically. BTW, that’s also probably why Turkey has always been so enthusiastic about a pipeline from Qatar to “Europe” (not that Saudia will go for it now, even if Syria will).
Thanks for this useful color. Off topic, but I’ve been wondering about the tinderbox named Pakistan these days, this today from the Times Tensions Escalate After Pakistan Pounds Afghanistan With Airstrikes, archived. That Pakistan feels the need to “Pound Afghanistan With Airstrikes” makes me think high political risk. Now I’m wondering if a “Greater Pashtun State” includes Islamabad.
Just trying to understand how this news story was sourced, and found this at the bottom of the web page:
All rights reserved for Volant Media UK Limited
Hmm, a 24/7 news source on Iran based in the UK? Wonder who funds this?
I wonder if they can publish any stories on how other BRICS countries will be investing and developing in Iran? Cause this just seems like it’s gonna happen.
For some reason this reminds me of the “China will collapse any minute now” stories I’ve been reading for ten years (or maybe more).
“Climate change will devastate value of homes, warns Bank of England ”
One can only hope! Finally more affordable housing ;)
Unless wage collapse also kicks in, so nobody can afford to buy and support the values of those homes — even the lower values.
(Maybe these have already been linked) Blair Fix at Economics from the Top Down wrote some things:
The American Housing Crisis: A Theft, Not a Shortage
From Commodity to Asset: The Truth Behind Rising House Prices
Trouble is, the inhabitants will need probably need gills. https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24827389.bolton-major-incident-declared-flooding-affects-town/
Ruh, Roh! This does not look like a good omen for 2025-
‘The Washington Monument, Capitol Building, and Empire State Building were all struck by lightning on New Year’s Eve.’
https://x.com/AFpost/status/1874325551462441287
If this were Roman times, people would be panicking as this particular trifecta.
We had a rather unseasonable thunderstorm here in southern Vermont last night. Boomers and an uneasy feeling.
Right into northern Connecticut! I heard it approaching, pour rain, then pass on.
Right into northern Connecticut. I heard it approaching, pour rain, then pass.
“Ukraine to end transit of Russian gas to EU”
It is surreal to see the EU throwing its own member states under the bus in order to “support” a non-member. The EU is supposed to act in the interest of its member states and nobody else. They should immediately end all support to Ukraine until the gas is switched back on. But instead, these non-elected EU bureaucrats will be cheering this!
The EU is a kind of governance structure to rule the Euro part of the Empire. It has little to do with helping the people who live in that province. Almost every Euro “leader” is tied to their entanglement with the Empire–there is no alternative at this time. We’ll just have to see if this changes but most of us don’t understand how that control by Washington is instituted but threats and bribes figure prominently into the equation. It will take major change in Washington and in Europe before this scenario can change–the people of that province need to realize what is going on which is unlikely at this time since their media is even more tightly controlled than the US media.
Slovakia told the Ukraine that if they cut their gas, then Slovakia would cut the electricity that they send them. But then fellow EU member Poland told the Ukraine not to worry as they would send them extra electricity.
> The world’s oceans have continuously been running above pre-2023 daily temperatures for 638 days now.
> As far as I can determine, this has never happened before in the @NOAA OISST V2.1 dataset.
In 2015 SST temperatures delaminated from previous values and (by the Climate Reanalyzer chart) did not cross back for 608 days. Subsequent years filled in the space until 2023 delaminated again.
The curve for 2023-24 tracks 2015-16 pretty well, just a quarter-degree higher. Until disproven, we can anticipate it being an upper bound that is approached, above previous records, but not exceeded. Until the next delamination.
Albedo loss will shrink the interim between delamination. Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo. Thinning/loss of low-level cloud mass (Alarm!), and “Record-lows” here have plenty of room to become “new record-lows”. Current shift to La Nina is weak.
The USA Today writes of “early warning systems” (Science and Realism) being considered by various countries. That’s a howler. They even have the gall to include this sub-header “United Kingdom confronts climate change”, Lol. One must ask, “Where exactly are the good citizens of Timor-Leste going to go when they get an “early” warning?”.
“Sweden’s opposition wants NATO article invoked after cable break”
How about invoking Article 5 on the Northstream sabotage? That was literally an attack against German infrastructure, causing orders of magnitude more damage than the cable break. Also, in case of Northstream there is no doubt whatsoever whether this was a deliberate attack.
With NATO “friends” like this, you don’t need enemies.
You can’t “invoke” Article 5 and there is no mechanism for doing so, as these idiots would know if they had bothered to read the Treaty. The Article is a treaty requirement to to treat an
“armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America (as) an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary.”
I suppose Sweden could convene a meeting of the North Atlantic Council and demand assistance but, as you can see from the wording above it was never intended to cover this kind of situation. Oh, and Art 6 refers to attacks “on the territory” of the parties, which would be a stretch for undersea cables (certainly nothing like that was ever foreseen by the drafters of the Treaty.)
Likely this Swedish demand is done for domestic political reasons as is the normal way governments in Europe act–it is not a serious request because NATO has no capacity to even come close to defeating Russia militarily short of a massive nuclear attack.
“The poorest Americans have access to better health care than the richest royals did 100 years ago.”
What a joke of a comparison. Call me crazy but I think I’d take my chances with the exclusive personal attention of the physician to a European royal family over the kind of junk insurance that the poorest Americans can afford even if he was only trained to the standards of 1925. Catch him up on the existence of antibiotics and the decision is a no-brainer.
Made my first dental appointment after relocation to Knoxville. Chatted with the lady as we set up appointment. I learned she was born 1968 (about 56 yrs old), pays $500/month for a United Heathcare medical coverage and is thinking of just dropping it because “it doesn’t pay for anything and I’m falling behind paying my other bills and dropping it would help me pay those bills.” She gets why that CEO got shot. Eventually towards end of conversation she did make the obligitory noise that you should not kill others.
It wasn’t the Royals who invented/discovered/paid for this “better health care”. It was us.
The very poorest Americans get Medicaid coverage. It’s the middling poor that really have no access.
Whether the very poorest or the middling poor, I’d be surprised if a 50 year old American from either group had a greater probability of surviving to Medicare age than a 50 year old royal from 1925. So much for the idea that “there’s never been a better time to be alive because even the poorest get better medical care than the royalty of a century ago”. Though there is that telltale neoliberal weasel word “access”. I guess it’s not strictly impossible that an American, no matter how poor, might get “access” to healthcare that even the royalty of yesteryear couldn’t dream of.
It can be “challenging” to get an appointment with medicaid coverage.
It’s the difference in access, affordability and quality of care between the haves and the have nots that is the issue. I’m not sure we have progressed much on that front. Nancy Pelosi got her new hip within days and I’m guessing it was done by one of the best surgeons on staff. Others have to wait months in order to get that procedure, assuming they can get pre-approved and afford it. Many just suffer along because they can’t. Same as it ever was.
I believe that before the rise of the pharma industry, homeopathic medicine was widely practiced in the U.S. I once, about 1973, found an 1895 Pharmacognosy book in the ruins of an abandoned house on a cliff above the ocean in Sonoma County, Ca somewhere. It was a large tome, a collection of medicinal minerals and plants with pictures and information on preparing, growing and/or collecting these.
So the notion that medicine today is soooo much better than 100 years ago strikes me as willfully ignorant in service of our (the U.S.’) ripoff of our health for profit. The koolaid is getting very sour these days.
Well, there may be something to that statement since the poorest Americans can more afford health care than I can with Medicare which covers almost nothing past emergency care. But for Americans in general I need to remind people that we have the worst health-care system in the world by far and are the only country not in the middle of a war where lifespans have been falling for a decade or more year-in, year-out. US health-care is a racket not a service. Just ask people who are familiar with the system on both the cost and delivery side.
Medicare provides very extensive coverage. Do you really not know this, or are you just whining here because you think you have a sympathetic audience?
Medicare (parts A and B) provides 80% coverage. (Extensive?) It is the private insurance Medigap plans that provide the other 20%. Twenty percent of a $50k hospital bill puts many patients into bankruptcy. UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was managing an medical insurer that denied ~30% of all its insurance claims. Medicare is a crapshoot not quality medical care. (I’ve been using it for over 10 years.)
Medicare Advantage is worse.
There was Russia after the fall of USSR, but they eventually got Putin who began to reverse the problems. Instead, we get Obummer, Trump, and Biden.
>The poorest Americans have access to better health care than the richest royals did 100 years ago.”
I see the word “access” used in an article about health care and all it tells me is that the door to the hospital is not locked. You can walk in and get your ” healthcare “, good luck paying for it and not being bankrupted for the privilege of “access “.
Exactly this.
That “access to” is doing a ton of work in that sentence, and dramatically changes its meaning by using a couple of harmless-looking extra words.
Happy New Year, everybody!
Obviously this whole CEO thing has touched an elite nerve, and we’re going to be subject to all sorts of stupidity in the news.
But honestly, if you’ve given the running of the country over to these CEO oligarchy elite, and are unwilling to do anything that the American public wants – what did you expect? And I’m amazed at the elites that are shocked by the showing of public support. They really do live in a bubble. I’m actually amazed it’s taken this long for something like this to happen, but now that the cat’s out of the bag, I don’t see how you stuff it back in. Certainly just making things worse for average Americans will not make things better. (Just ponder how stupid our discourse is that that is a sentence I have to add.)
I think the way they are handling it shows exactly how little self-awareness they have.
If I was the press advisor for the New York mayor, I’d be telling him: try to at least pay lip service to the idea of equal justice and protection for all, and not look too obviously like you’re mobilizing to protect class interests. If anybody is telling him that, he’s clearly not listening to them.
I’m just waiting for the Ukraine-style article about how this murder was especially distressing because it wasn’t happening to faceless brown people in poor neighborhoods but to people just like us!
“Ants Perform Better As a Group Than Humans When Trying to Solve the ‘Piano Mover’s Puzzle’’
Those ants look like they are using the trial and error method to me just like the humans were. Of course if you are going to solve the ‘Piano Mover’s Puzzle’ with ants, you are going to need a bigger ant. Just remember to be prepared though-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd0gxpje5tI (52 secs)
We humans solved the problem by replacing the pianos with lightweight digital keyboards. Let’s see the smarty pants ants do that.
i’ll stick with my piano, 50 yrs back when the lightning hit the restaurant, Piano and candle light.
We play and perform on a Weber & Sons (Chicago) piano from 1914, a “stand up grand”. We tune it up about every 3 years ($150 or so). no way in Billy Bob will you ever be playing on a 100+ year old Cassio.
Smarty pants ants! Happy New Year!
Hey a solution to Musk’s H1B problems. He can acquire the smartest ant colonies for pennies on the dollar. I smell investment.
I smell…Marabunta!
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak Wolf Richter (Li)
“percentage of its overall loans that are marked as unrecoverable, hit 6.1 per cent, up from 5.2 per cent a year ago.”
With the rates that cards charge – it does not look like profits will be affected that much. The unrecoverable part sold on to the secondary market at 20% value— not sure) would gain some debt collectors who will pursue full face value some area for gains.
Maybe the Card companies could restructure these unrecoverables with their clients at some lower amount above that which they sell to debt collectors – of course – these credit structures have been carefully engineered to maximize gains and pains.
Of course, these behemoths, will go crying to their underlings in congress, hat-in-hand looking for a few scraps and coins to help em’ out when their luck is down
This sentence illustrates everything wrong with the US economy:
“High vacancy rates in the latest and greatest buildings allow companies to move from an older office tower into new fancy digs, while downsizing office space at the same time”
Whatever happened to “waste not, want not?” This is so wasteful from a resource perspective. Older buildings may not be as “fancy,” but they don’t require expensive construction, materials, or the latest LEED-certified regulations driving up costs.
How many of these companies would be better served to negotiate a really sweet lease term in an older building? Is this just all the classic “American Idiot” at work?
How ’bout you idiots stop building?
And on that Grinchy note, I wish you all a Happy 2025!
I would add, “How about you idiots stop forcing people to commute to offices for jobs that can perfectly be done remotely? This would reduce both fossil fuel usage and the need for office space.”
Re gift cards and “card draining”–amazing. What will the tech criminals think of next? But if it is really a widespread problem then I wonder why we haven’t heard more about it.
It happened to my kid last year. His aunt sent him a Visa gift card for Christmas and when he went to use it a few weeks later, he discovered that the $$ already been used up.
re: People Are Sharing Subtly Weird Parts Of Life In America, And Even As Someone From The US, I’m Thinking Twice About Some Of These BuzzFeed (Kevin W)
I would add: Americans have more national flags on display everywhere than any country I’ve been to. It always makes me think of the Swastikas in Nazi Germany.
Yes. I said nearly the same thing above. See my reply to Revenant’s reply to RK.
Flags are tough. They can be beautiful but I also hate them. A bridge is being replaced at the I-90/95 intersection and a crane there often has a huge stars and stripes flying from its load line. In good weather conditions it looks wonderful. The USA has a good looking national flag. But it also creeps me out.
Don’t you love those giant pickups that have a big US flag flying from one corner of the bed and a Confederate flag flying from the other corner? Nothing says Patriot like that! /s
I wonder what that does to their gas mileage. :)
Remember how flags mysteriously appeared on every freeway overpass bridge right after 9/11? That really creeped me out. So much changed for the worse after 9/11. The u.s. is not the same country.
There’s also the dreadful Pledge of Allegiance. I’ve lived in five other countries and have never seen or heard of a Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag in those countries. Does such a Pledge exist anywhere else in the world? If so, what is its status?
Belize. It appears the words were changed around 10 years ago, pledging to Belize rather than the flag: youtube 40 secs. I don’t know if kids have to recite it every day or what.
The Pledge wasn’t officially adopted until 1942. (Updated with addendum “under God” in 1954).
Becuase of the “under God” addition many city councils don’t begin with the Pledge, or require council members to recite it (they can simply sit through it—I’m one of them).
I’m Canadian and a long time ago (early Middle Ages) when I was in highschool I spent a day at a high school while visiting friends in Virginia.
The class I was visiting started off the day with the Pledge of Allegiance. I had read about it but it still was really weird.
I cannot think of anything Canadian school kids could except may sing “God Save The King” and far too many teenagers would be inventing obscene lyrics to make that a winner.
Just as well that they don’t do the Bellamy salute in US schools these days. That would be a little to on the nose-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellamy_salute
Says in that Ask Jimbo! page that the Bellamy salute was replaced by the hand over heart salute in Dec 1942.
!
We have a ridiculous Oath to the King here in Canada:
“I, [name], do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King Charles the Third, King of Canada, his heirs and successors. So help me God.”
It was recited at school board meetings right after the national anthem when I was Superintendent; I refused to utter the words myself — my Irish ancestors would spin in their graves had I done so …
We, in the USA, are a country with deeply divided population in terms of ethnicity and culture unlike Europe and other places though that is changing rapidly. But we are still a melting pot culture where the flag and, sometimes, sports unite us in some way. I favor the display of flags (though I don’t do it) as a good thing–we need all the cohesion we can get.
The US flag is a symbol of pride only for people who are – willingly or otherwise – ignorant of its horrible history, starting with the near-genocide of its native population, and continuing today with its support for the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
My opinion, of course.
100% perfectly stated. like taking pride in sex trafficking or in denying healthcare to those in need.
Of course it does.
re: Elon Musk is the main culprit for the defeat of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, Ukrainians claim
Who was it that said something along the lines of “if your business depends on someone else’s platform, you don’t have a viable business”?
Haha, yours truly! And the saying goes, “If your business depends on a platform, you don’t have a business.”
I find it striking that Musk has been way more respectful of Putin’s red lines than the US and NATO have been, as in hearing that parties involved in targeting strikes into Russia are at war with Russia and should not be surprised if/when they are attacked. Did Musk suspect he would not get adequate help? Did he not want Russia to get better at signal jamming (they apparently are becoming more effective v. Starlink).
And how dumb could the Ukrainians be, if Starlink really was essential, not to get confirmation of support in Kursk?
Yeah, of all the criticisms to make of Musk (and the list is long) they choose the Starlink thing? He has been crystal clear all along that he doesn’t want it used to extend the war to targets in Russian territory, and has shut it down before when Ukraine has crossed that line.
If they planned the Kursk campaign on the assumption that they’d have Starlink comms, despite Musk’s repeated statements to the contrary, then that’s rank incompetence on their part. If they didn’t, then they’re just looking for scapegoats.
Musk is not a native American. He was born and grew up in apartheid South Africa as the apartheid was collapsing. He is unlikely to buy into US exceptionalism and may take Russia seriously.
Arnaud Bertrand’s take or observation on the Chinese representative system is quite interesting. It harkens to the recent articles on the open input system that they use when one calls 12345 on their phone. Why can’t we all just get along!
Especially important; explaining the open-consensus decision making system that explains Chinese governing and why governing is so flexible and adaptable and acceptable all through China. China has been continually and successfully adapting to the repeated development assaults from the United States and a few allied countries. This past year is a perfect example of Chinese development through policy adaptability.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1873988319564251569
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
Many people dismiss China as a one-party state but the reality is actually much more nuanced than this.
‘Green’ ferry emits more CO2 than old diesel ship BBC”
I bet there’s still a very big coupon for the people who own it, which is all that really matters.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-27/China-s-electric-zero-emission-ferry-to-begin-service-in-October-1dF2ad3u2IM/index.html
September 27, 2022
China’s electric, zero-emission ferry to begin service in October
China’s purely electric, zero-emission ferry named Xin Sheng Tai has been delivered in Shanghai and will be put into service by October end for ferrying between the city’s Changxing and Hengsha islands.
The ultracapacitor-powered ferry is 65 meters long, 14.5 meters wide and 4.3 meters deep. It can carry a maximum of 165 passengers and 30 cars at a time.
Equipped with full rotation thrusters and supercapacitor power, the vessel has a power output of 2,000 kilowatts and a speed of 12 knots.
It is undergoing its final checks and adjustments before the official start of operation.
“Since it is electric, the ferry emits almost no noise, and it is highly intelligent. From the bridge to the engine room, the control is centralized and fully automated,” said Captain Zhang Ping.
Due to the use of supercapacitors for charging, which enable the ship to sail for an hour only on a 15-minute charge, about 500 tonnes of fuel can be saved every year.
“This supercapacitor has four groups of batteries and is composed of 60 capacitor modules combined. Each module has 360 single capacitor cells, and there are 21,600 single cells in total. This system can realize intelligent management and remote monitoring. If a fault occurs, the service provider can obtain data remotely, communicate with us in time and guide us to correct the fault,” said Chief Engineer Xue Bing.
The ferry will boost Shanghai’s green transportation development system and provide a new pathway to achieving new-energy-powered development for inland vessels.
Most of China’s power comes from coal (62%), so what does that have to do with anything? More power for the boat means a lot more coal burned. Completely aside from power required for the production of the boat….
China is worse than the tech bros. That story is form 2022. How is it operating compared to it’s design parameters? Do we even know the design parameters?
“Most of China’s power comes from coal…”
Forgive me for being foolish, I thought the Chinese ferry was electric and zero-emission.
The electricity has to be generated first. If it’s generated from coal, its adding more CO2 into the atmosphere than a gas turbine would.
The only really zero emissions vehicle is a bicycle.
It’s okay. Many are.
Again, I am quite grateful for the explanations.
I made no complaint at all about the British “LNG and marine gas oil” ferry: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy87e72yg3o
I only showed the Chinese already had an electric zero-emission ferry. Now, the Chinese also have a green-hydrogen fueled zero-emission ferry. These new energy ferries still strike me as exciting developments.
That is a very small ferry if it can only carry 30 cars.
“That is a very small ferry…”
What the size limit may be for electric ferries is unclear to me, but China has been building far larger ships or boats for inland waters using hydrogen fuel cells, filled with green-hydrogen, with zero-emissions all through.
How big are the islands being served? In my area we have anything from a ~ 2 or 4 car ferry to a 10 auto to , IIRC, a ~ 80 auto ferry. That last one is electric. It depends on the specific island’s population.
LNG and natural gas in general is a bridge to abrupt climate change given the fugitive methane emissions that plague the production sites, distribution networks, and end use appliances, vehicles, and industrial processes. We have known this for over a decade, but the official lies take precedence in our media. Bill McKibben was highlighting this in 2016:
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/global-warming-terrifying-new-chemistry/
The Chinese are following the correct path, using electric batteries (in EVs, ferries etc.) while adding colossal amounts of renewables and nuclear to their electricity generating system. China’s CO2 emissions may peak this year, at 5% GDP growth, and its coal usage may peak within a couple of years at most. The Chinese heavy-truck fleet has made a big move to LNG and batteries and away from diesel, hopefully the batteries will start to dominate.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/
This is tech bro speak.
“has made a big move to LNG and batteries and away from diesel, hopefully the batteries will start to dominate.”
Where are the numbers to back that up? Showing a picture of a street with more lng trucks than other trucks would be a start to “reporting”, not just cheer leading.
The word “battery” is also said as a blessing these days. “the holy spirit will protect us”. Where does the holy spirit, or the electricity to fuel the batteries, come from?
Bill McKibben has been highlighting deez for a long time
“The Chinese are following the correct path…”
I appreciate this. The Chinese intend to continue growing as fast as expanding potential will allow, but energy use will be increasingly clean all through. Potential growth in China, as Robert Solow explained, should be 5% and above for quite a while, given the level of domestic investment.
Roger Boyd:
The Chinese heavy-truck fleet has made a big move to LNG and batteries and away from diesel…”
Absolutely; the complete numbers for 2024 will be coming for a while, but the electric-hydrogen transition has already been dramatic both domestically and through exports. Buses, trucks, construction and farm equipment and beyond.
> The Depletion Paradox Natural Resource Market Insights. We reported many years ago, based on expert views then, that shale gas production would peak in the mid-later 2020s, and decline gradually for a few years, then suddenly. It looks like the peak arrived early.
With all due respect, this is bonkers. Natural gas is a cyclical industry because its production involves capex upfront and then very low marginal cost for sales after that. Further, a key issue for capex is pipeline capacity to move natural gas (whether directly produced or, more commonly, associated gas, a byproduct of crude oil). A generic large independent oil/gas company like Devon, Continental, or Chesapeake/Expand has a financial model for every spot they can drill with proximity to a pipeline where they need to input assumed oil and natural gas prices over a 5- or 10-year period. If forward prices catch a sustained upward trajectory, they will drill more. And they have the inventory to do it. If forward prices look a lot higher on a sustained basis, we will get new pipelines to otherwise distant inventory. There is enough natural gas in the ground to do it.
Henry Hub futures have spent the better part of the last two years around $2-2.50 per MMBtu. That is literally the same nominal price range as 1997. There is no price signal to do a sustained production increase right now.
An example of cyclicality can be seen in the data going back over the last 5 years. Natural gas prices tanked during the COVID pandemic ($1.60s during H1 2020). Drilling dropped. Then natural gas prices rose a lot during Q4 2021 and Q1-3 2022, hitting high $8.xx’s. Drilling increased. Now natural gas prices are lower.
If we hit peak natural gas production in the late 2020s, it will only be because we have such low prices that producers are never incented to drill for more production, and industry consolidation reduces wildcatter production.
Sorry, I read the same predictions REPEATEDLY from industry experts, as in the financial analyst types, who would be very fixated on the economics. The issue was the life of shale gas wells, that they produce heavily for a short life and have a long-ish tail of low production. They modeled the exploitation of major regions. You are missing that the wells individually have limited lives and the most promising spots in a region will be exploited first.
I’ve seen the same, including statements that Trump can’t make good on his promise to increase production because of the declining economics of shale reserves. In the context of forecasting energy markets for investors, not politics.
Yes, I am aware that shale wells have shorter lives. I’m not missing it. I live in a city where some oil producers are located–you can google my name based on my email address–and I eat lunch with these people all the time. I promise you there is more inventory if the prices go up–a lot more.
Although many Japanese would disagree, the roles of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in China and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan are very similar. The reason why Japan, a democratic country, has tolerated the “one-party dictatorship” of the LDP to this day is that the LDP has been part of the Japanese government structure rather than a political party. The role required of opposition parties is to make constructive proposals to the LDP, not to take power themselves. It may come as a surprise to some, but opposition parties that are hostile to the LDP are viewed and criticized as uncooperative and irresponsible.
The same logic as the LDP and CPC would apply to the old Dem Party of US. It took a lot of skilled (and quite “democratic/representative”) politicking within to achieve that, and yes, Roy Rogers had no clue what he was talking about. Ironically, following what people like Rogers thought “party politics” meant was what broke American politics, I think.
To elaborate, being the permanent “ruling coalition” (even if only of a 1/3 of the government, or less–in case of the US Dems, it was really just the House that they kept “permanent” control thereof) is that you are forced to be responsible. Whatever that comes out of the government is your work and those who don’t get material benefits know that it’s your malfeasance that keeps stuff out of their hands. Furthermore, it takes a huge popular coalition to keep your “party” in power: this is independent of elections–CPC knows if what it does is unpopular among the masses and seeks to avoid being genuinely unpopular with any large group of population whenever possible.
In contrast, people can’t really tell between ideology and “talk,” especially if you’re at arm’s length, much the way Zelensky is the “democratic” and “freedom-loving” leader of the Ukraine. So the permanent ruling coalition is always devoted to doing something useful for a large number of people in some fashion. You can always talk about “fighting for” X, Y, or Z, without doing a damn thing about it. Ironically, elections provide a false sense of legitimacy: you only want to build a minimum winning coalition to win elections under the rules at hand, as any larger coalition than that is inefficient. So you feel that you are free to alienate 49.9% or whatever (allowed under the electoral rules) of the population while appeal to the rest with mere words and slogans (becasue they are cheap). But 49.9% coalition of unhappy people (or more, really–depending on how the elections are set up and/or practiced) is a giant ticking bomb that can blow up badly if left unaddressed for too long.
Ironically, so called electoral autocracies understand this problem well: the Singaporean government being the best example thereof. Winning elections (with minimum winning coalitions) is not their thing: they want elections mainly as means of learning what it is that different segments of people want and don’t want. Elections are, therefore, “rigged” in a manner that outsiders don’t expect: they need to ensure that the ruling party consistently wins, but need to be as fair and free as possible, at least in the big picture sense–the latter so that people can be honest in letting their sentiments known. One might say the same thing about the old Democrats, too, I suppose–they were quite skilled in doing, eh, questionable things in elections (or so people believe anyways.) But the Tammany Hall, say, was very good at gauging what most of the people wanted and delivering them (with a small cut for themselves…but only fools would expect anything, especially politics, is free.). In an odd way, CPC’s internal politics has been remarkable, even more than that of Japan, Singapore, or Russia: even without formal elections, they have set things up so that they get a lot of what the Chinese public wants and are good at delivering them with remarkable efficiency.
I’m inclined to think that a permanent party of power is almost inevitable when you combine a first past the post vote in a parliamentary system in an ethnically/culturally homogenous country like Japan. In other countries with similar systems, such as ROK and Taiwan, you at least have some deeper fractures within the population that leads to something like a duopoly of parties with at least some overt differences in policy. Even then, as with the US and UK and pretty much every other country with a FPTP (or similar) system, most of the real politics happens within, not between parties. The LDP has also been lucky with its enemies – its various rival parties seem to have been incredibly inept. Ultimately, its power is based on its relatively good long term management of the country. Japan is a pretty good advert for permanent ruling coalitions, although Japans uniqueness means it doesn’t really have many lessons for other countries. It should also be pointed out that while Japan isn’t particularly democratic at national level, politics is far more lively and proactive at city and local level. Democracy isn’t just about what goes on in the capital.
Singapore is also a really good advert for technocratic autocracies, and as you say, the elections there act as a good means for the government to gauge the temperature of public opinion. The Singaporeans have a knack for making things work well, but is also a good indicator that people will accept the loss of a lot of freedom if they get low crime, good housing and plenty of jobs in return (which is, of course, a form of freedom).
I think the key secret to the CCP success is the generally decentralized nature of the Party and the country. By generating competition between regions you get something like a meritocracy of senior politicians and there is a good churn of ideas, and prevents various levels from becoming too sclerotic and/or corrupt. I’m inclined to think that Xi’s very strong centralizing tendency may be counterproductive in the longer run.
I used to be very optimistic about Vietnam – the Party there was very open at some levels (particularly in rural areas and parts of the north). Up to quite recently I thought Vietnam would be the next big economic success in the region. I’m a little less optimistic now – I think the indications are that the government has become very inward looking and deeply corrupt to the extent that it could choke off the countries potential. Time will tell.
Do you mean Will Rogers?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Rogers
Oops!!
The 1955 system as “democratic”?
How would you square this claim about Japan with Tim Weiner’s reading (see: Legacy of Ashes), or the following account of the LDP from Chalmers Johnson, viz.,
I.e., the period from the reverse course of the late 1940s to at least 1974.
It’s a matter of perception: ask any Japanese if they think the 1955 system is a dictatorship by the LDP. They will tell you that Japan (unlike its neighbors) has been a consistently democratic nation since World War II, and that the U.S. military is not occupying Japan, but is there to protect it from invasion by the evil Chinese and Russians.
Almost none of the Japanese I know here in Japan would say any of that.
The U.S. military presence is deeply unpopular (e.g., see years of protests in Okinawa), and there are quite a few people unhappy with Jiminto, e.g.:
https://x.com/bochibochiyo/status/1874430367224222128
Taibbi’s latest, public excerpt.
Goodbye to 2024, America’s Craziest Year
A decades-long mission to fill a spiritual void with politics finally collapsed this year. Will America finally get a life?
https://www.racket.news/p/goodbye-to-2024-americas-craziest
A couple of paras from the longer article:
Looking back, it wasn’t just shocks like Brexit or the election of Trump that sent educated people praying to idols. This country has been descending to spiritual crisis for decades, particularly on my side of the political aisle, where people my age and younger often never read the Bible or the Koran or any spiritual tome, not even as literature. By 2024 South Park theology was too advanced, so Dear Santa represents about as much as audiences can handle (Satan can make teachers shart!). Lacking the vocabulary to consider issues of good or evil, or conscience, or one’s eternal soul, secular audiences have been easy prey for academics and media opportunists seeking to shovel nonsense into those inner chasms. A particularly cynical trick was turning something as barren as partisan politics into a religious cause. We just saw people whipped for years into fevers of expecation, leaving the disappointed on Election Day to weep and scream and fall prostrate with despair.
Now that electoral dust has settled, a few scattered media voices are admitting it may not have been healthy to play with people’s emotions this way. The point of today’s Post editorial, to the extent that it has one, is that pouring one’s soul into political news is poor life strategy, since even journalists make mistakes (the paper conceded it was “wrong to assume” Russia sabotaged Nord Stream). In one sad passage, the Post told readers that chilling out a little won’t “require ignoring reality, such as the crushing national debt, climate change or President-elect Donald Trump’s record.” In other words, you can cling to all those fears we’ve been selling you! Just don’t go overboard with panic until you’re sure it’s bad news you see, since “not every plausible negative outcome will be borne out.”
~~~~
An aside, I think Lambert has made a wise choice, though I will much miss WC.
For Lambert. All the best.
“Though much is taken, much abides; and though
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.”
― Alfred Lord Tennyson, Idylls of the King
It’s complicated…..
the article did not describe how they managed to test 1 million chickens for bird flu. Does anybody know what that would entail? It sounds like an incredible mischaracterization to me. The article says they culled a million birds and, separately, that “they” tested positive for bird flu. But the verb that goes with a million birds is culled, not tested. Am I to imagine that they tested a million carcasses? Because I really don’t think so. I know at this point it’s stupid to complain about a headline, but I just can’t help myself sometimes.
On another note, I’m sad to see “kill me now” return to this publication. In these dark times it feels like a promotion of suicide, and it gives me the creeps. Maybe it could change to “kill this timeline now”. Just a thought.
This will put smaller egg producers out of business but not the big poultry agribiz out of business. Sort the way small, independent restaurants were put of business but not the big chain Wall St. owned restaurants during lockdown. What a deal (for monopolies and cartels).
Catch 22 here. The bird flu vaccine is made with eggs apparently, 15 million doses are stored but if it breaks out the number of eggs needed expands like the national debt. But the bird flu is killing the chickens that lay the eggs. Pity poor Mr Trump once again being the bag holder. They would just assume that in any modern chicken pen all chickens would get infected poste haste once a few go down.
By the way the infected chickens are ground up and put in landfill, not burnt as you would think. Sub-typing of all the current Flu A cases in the US is only being done on an adhoc basis, so the spread is really unknown.
They won’t be testing the carcasses. They’ll be making cat food out of them. Time to break the fur bag in on fish.
She’s ba-aack. Jimmy Dore, utube, ~30+ minutes.
“Time To Freak Out About Bird Flu!” Says Discredited CNN COVID Alarmist Leana Wen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwxmklUWL_M
It was pretty simple. They texted a sample group of nine hundred chickens, and asked them if they were feeling okay.
Jeeze, when did the Rose parade turn into a military parade? If it wasn’t for the mini horses, I would unplug it once and for all.
Trump support for Musk on H1B visas gives me the same feeling as Obama appointing Geitner. Queue the ominous music.
Also interesting to me are X personalities demanding that GOP congress critters support Johnson for Speaker because Trump is the party leader. Devotion to the constitution from self-described “patriots” apparently does not extend to appreciation of Congress as a separate and equal branch of government.
I think the likelihood of a Vance presidency is declining at the moment.
Trump’s entire business career was based on screwing over creditors, vendors, contractors and the like: why should anyone ever expect anything but betrayal from the guy?
That he kept his word on TPP and Supreme Court appointments is big news, because it’s so out of character.
That’s unfair. Trump is the traditional capitalist hustler no different than any other of his colleagues. The whole TDS thing is really a reflection of our hatred for honesty and love of hypocrisy to be maintained at all costs. In his way Trump is the most honest politician I’ve seen and less controlled by outside operators–though he’s still controlled by those who can make their threats real, i.e., CIA and friends. BTW, I don’t agree with many of his policies but you, it seems, don’t understand how difficult it is for any POTUS to actually control policy.
As Russian President Putin put it in describing US Presidents: “Presidents come and go but the politics remain the same.”
I was just listening to a Mexican blogger who said basically the same thing.
I’ve been observing Trump from the beginning of his career in NY, and what I said was a factual description of his behavior (and leaves out his inflammatory racist rants about, for example, the Central Park Five). As for his “independence” from outside influences, two words: Miriam Adelson.
For you to equate a factual description of his long-standing behavior with TDS says a lot more about you than it does me.
Well, it showed who the real President was/is, and who was/is merely the Head Butler In Chief.
President Musk is eating the pets! Deport President Musk before he eats them all!
Bannon sez “Deport them now, and hire American citizens with the same skill set.”
So doing construction work for minimum wage? I doubt there are enough qualified Americans to fill the slots in health care, software design etc.
I think that’s why God invented training.
Yes. It won’t be a quick fix, but unless there’s demand, we won’t get a serious market for providing training either. At the same time though, it does mean that whatever immigration reform that takes place will have to be accompanied by a fairly serious education reform for at least the medium term. I think it is telling that Dept of Ed is on the target list for the Musvek, paired with their defense of H1b.
100 %
>>>So doing construction work for minimum wage? I doubt there are enough qualified Americans to fill the slots in health care, software design etc.
How so? I keep reading of Americans being fired and replaced in tech for several decades. Then there is the suppression of wages to below what is needed just to live using imported labor.
I believe that there might be areas where there are not enough Americans workers available, but in all areas their wages have been suppressed and they have been replaced by cheaper, often effectively indentured, imported labor.
yeah, it would be way cool to be able to earn a modest income from selling all the food i grow…in at least a gray market setting.
but that would require something a little beyond deporting a bunch of brown folks.
ive been out of pocket, and avoiding news, mostly, all month(i loathe december), but i have looked , and have seen zero actionable intelligence about ag policy…just handwaves and gibbering platitudes.
It’s not a wonder since national agricultural policy has been used to destroy family size farms since at least the 1970s. For the same reasons as the factories were shipped overseas, which not only was profitable for the wealthy, but destroyed the unions, which was to destroy all those pesky farming organizations and movements such as the Progressive Movement.
With the prospective Speaker a little short of votes, wouldn’t Biden’s resignation @ the sixth make things more interesting?
Imagine the look on Harris’ face and the look on HRC’s face if the cackler becomes America’s first ( Officially, anyway) female President.
With two weeks left before handing off to Trump.
I would be vastly amused.
Aww . . . Hillary cackled better than Kamalabama does.
About ” Will China’s massive dam project spark a water war with India? ” . . .
As a mere layman with zero hydrology or engineering knowledge, it doesn’t necessarily have to – – in my purely amateur layman’s opinion.
Why would I even dare to offer such a thought? I read once that the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra River has long been considered one of the worlds sweetest spots for hydroelectric energy. Here is a map of the ” Brahmatzangpo” River showing its Great Bend.
https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=great+bend+of+the+brahmaputra+river+map+image&fr=sfp&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2F736x%2Fe0%2F51%2F12%2Fe05112aaba0adef4d7a2467c5f572918.jpg#id=-1&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2F736x%2Fe0%2F51%2F12%2Fe05112aaba0adef4d7a2467c5f572918.jpg&action=click
I remember reading that between the start and the finish of the Great Bend , the drop in altitude is several thousand feet. It only takes a moderate amount of water falling that far to spin a lot of turbines for a lot of power. There could be a whole stairstep series of little dams and powerhouses all the way down the Great Bend generating power at every step. Not only that, tunnel pipes could be drilled from the highest parts of the Breat Bend right through the rock to the lowest parts of the Great Bend for inlet-to-outlet head-pressure differences of a thousand vertical feet equivalent or more. Think of how much power could be generated with just a modest amount of water stood into columns a thousand or more feet tall falling through turbines at the bottoms of the columns. So if the object is hydropower, a water war need not be inevitable.
That said, the CPC will probably indulge itself in one of its grand Pharaonic-Scale Gigaprojects designed to amaze and awe the world. And it will design and operate the dam in such a way as to show its Grand Indifference to the mere outside barbarians who live downstream.
Therefore, I renew my prediction that long after the Unites States of America has become a fading memory, China will be the most hated country in all of East , Southeast and South Asia.
The project doesn’t siphon off any water. Absurd headline.
Here is an article about PornHub striking back against states which demand verified proof of verified age in order to access Porn sites, under the guise of so-called “protecting the children”. Porn Hub is just blocking access to itself in those states instead. Porn Hub is now defending freedom of privacy against the creeping National Digital Identification State, much as Larry Flynt stood up for Free Speech in his day. ( When someone once called him a ‘smut peddler’, he replied: ” That’s MISTER ‘Smut Peddler’ to you.”)
https://www.404media.co/pornhub-is-now-blocked-in-almost-all-of-the-u-s-south/
If the outraged pornoholic citizens of these states can torture and terrorise their representatives into repealing these laws, that will be a Porn Hub victory for Digital Privacy Rights right there. It would cause the BlueNose BusyBullies of the non-Southern States to rethink their plans to do the very same thing.
If the outraged pornoholic citizens of these states are not strong enough to torture and terrorise their state governments into repealing these laws, then hopefully this will lead to a braindrain of pornoholics and principled Conscientous Digital Age Verification Objectors to the Porn Hub still-available states. Such a brain drain might make the Digital Freedom Privacy Rights community even stronger in the Freedom Of Porn Hub states and reduce still further the chances of those states’s legislatures imposing a digital No-Privacy-For-You regime.
On the other hand, this could lead to greater employment in a healthier and greener more local economy, with many more escort services and massage parlors opening.
This is likely what was intended by “sex education consultant and state representative Laurie Schegel” when she wrote the model law.
Church business is down, even in the Bible Belt. Some sector has to “pick up the slack”.
Does anyone in the commentariat have any suggestions on how to get Ivermectin in the SF Bay Area? Thanks, and Happy New Year to everyone!
You can order from any pharmacy in TN. It’s OTC. No prescription required.
Not SF specific, but I get the animal stuff from the feedstore. I swallow it rather than inject it though you do need a syringe to get it out of the bottle.
Covid-19: Very interesting interview about investigations into the origins of SARS-CoV-2 with a timeline and patient zero named. Based on FOIA results, and DARPA grant proposals and research, is sounds pretty convincing:
SARS-CoV-2 originated in a US lab
Ah, good. Nothing like having an engineer from the oil industry do research on the origins of a virus. Next time I have the flu I’m consulting my butcher.
I am not a gossip person. But as I have learned what structural changes news media and lies have caused in society in recent years I am not as negligent as I once might have been.
After the Johnny Depp case – which was from my outsider’s perspective insane – now new info on actors Blake Lively vs. Justin Baldoni.
VARIETY:
Justin Baldoni Files $250 Million Lawsuit Against New York Times Over Blake Lively Story: It Relied on Her ‘Self-Serving Narrative’ (EXCLUSIVE)
https://variety.com/2024/film/news/justin-baldoni-sues-new-york-times-blake-lively-allegations-story-1236263099/
To document how childish and irresponsible all of this appears to be – especially considering that this is an art form/entertainment content centered on the human body – acting is not exactly writing code for a software company – see e.g. following excerpt (of course these circles are so moronic on so many levels. At some point being a millionaire or billionaire fries your brain):
“(…)Another allegation made by Lively centered on Heath showing her a video of his naked wife. “The Times compounded its journalistic failures by uncritically advancing Lively’s unsubstantiated claims of sexual harassment against Heath and Baldoni. … [with the] CRD complaint even labeling [that] footage as ‘pornography.’ This claim is patently absurd,” the lawsuit says. “The video in question was a (non-pornographic) recording of Heath’s wife during a home birth — a deeply personal one with no sexual overtone. To distort this benign event into an act of sexual misconduct is outrageous and emblematic of the lengths to which Lively and her collaborators are willing to go to defame plaintiffs.” The suit adds that the video in question was shown to Lively as part of a creative discussion regarding a birthing scene in “It Ends With Us.” As for the allegation that Baldoni inappropriately described Lively’s character’s attire as “sexy,” the suit calls that “exaggerated and misleading.” Text exchanges between Baldoni and Lively that are included in the complaint show the actress using the word herself when she wrote that her character’s clothing should be “much sexier.” “Will show you both ways but beanie is much sexier,” she wrote in what appeared to be her advocating for a particular wardrobe option. “Lively set the tone, a tone that Baldoni respectfully heeded during the creative process,” the suit says.(…)”
Do you think this was staged? Or do these things just burst into flames like this?
Cybertruck bursts into flames outside Trump hotel
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2025/1/1/cybertruck-bursts-into-flames-outside-trump-hotel
Can someone explain to me the wisdom of buying a 60-80K dollar cybertruck with “telemetry”?
See Trump Tower explosion in Las Vegas?
The world gets more concerning by the day……
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/01/us/cybertruck-fire-trump-hotel-las-vegas/index.html
If it was a spontaneous lithium battery-mass flame-eruption as some of them are ( viz. Teslas bursting into flames in anonymous non-telegenic parking garages with no audience except the security camera), then one hopes the law enforcement will admit that . . . . if that is what they find.
Hopefully they bring in fire marshalls and relevant-engineers to get some genuinely knowledge-based expert input.
Meanwhile, President Musk is eating the pets.
He’s eating all the pets.
“Happy New Year” sure had a hollow ring to it this year.
>>>Can someone explain to me the wisdom of buying a 60-80K dollar cybertruck with “telemetry”?
Because it’s “cool?” Really, that is the American way. Buy stupid stuff that’s more expensive than what the Jones’ have. It’s bling.
I’m reading articles that have this incident in Las Vegas as potentially linked to what happen in New Orleans. I suppose it might be, but let’s not forget this accident:
Fiery Tesla Cybertruck crash in Northern California kills 3 young adults
https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/tesla-cybertruck-crash-piedmont-hampton-road-king-avenue/
Those batteries have lots of stored energy, and are extremely difficult to put out once lit.
But I completely agree with you that the price and data collection is crazy, but I think the same thing is happening for all the light trucks in America right now. I feel a bit smart getting a “fleet configured” F-150 since it doesn’t have the data links to send data back to Ford, but I got it mostly because this as about the least expensive trucks you can buy (and I am cheap!)
The problem is not the stored energy, it is that the battery is built using an inherently flammable material. It is possible to build this level of car battery without a flammable material, and a number of companies are trying to deliver.
Someone built a series of battery-powered tourist riverboats in the Netherlands, and there is a video of one of the boats suffering a massive battery fire. The tourists and crew were safely evacuated, but the riverboat itself suffered a Viking funeral. I would love to find and save that video, it was insane.
Musk says it was rented from Turo… so maybe people rent them like limousines?
I can see that my 2025 bingo card already needs more “Musk vs. Trump” squares!
Here is the video. Annnnd it does look more like an explosion than like a genuine battery flame-eruption.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CyberStuck/comments/1hrafib/cybertruck_explosion_outside_trump_hotel/
If that’s what it was, that isn’t good.
I wonder if the driver knew what was in the back of that truck. Or whether he was on a one-way ticket. Was it political as it was a Musk truck in front of a Trump hotel.
I have to agree. The optics are intentional or ironic or both.
Here is a report about it from the Irish Times.
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/world-news/explosion-trump-tower-las-vegas-34404022?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=reddit
If stuff like this keeps happening I will begin to wonder if it is a false-flag operation to prepare Americans to support an Argentine Dirty War against Trump’s chosen targets. I would be cautious about being seen or heard celebrating these things. The walls have teeth.
Below is a Tweet from Musk FWIW. I read the “telemetry” angle as what it looked like on Tesla’s end. I know nothing about the vehicle and how much it may communicate with the manufacturer.
Musk Tweet
What it says;
Janet and I were talking about the particular type of laughter I’ve developed about not-funny things, a bit Joker-like, yet without the nasal downglides characterizing cynical laughter. She suggested ‘Sardonic’.
From EtymologyOnline:
> “apparently but not really proceeding from gaiety,” especially of laughter, a grin, etc., 1630s, from French sardonique (16c.), from Latin sardonius (but as if from *sardonicus) as used in the phrase Sardonius risus, a loan-translation of Greek sardonios gelōs “of bitter or scornful laughter.”
Okay, along the right line, tho still a bit minor-key…
> The Greek word was altered from Homeric sardanios (which is of uncertain origin) apparently by influence of Sardonios “Sardinian” (see Sardinia) because the Greeks believed that eating a certain plant they called sardonion (“plant from Sardinia”) caused facial convulsions
…okay…
> facial convulsions resembling those of sardonic laughter (usually followed by death).
Yup! Saw that and started the laughing. Had just got done listening to Tulsi on Ukrainian biolabs. Full jōkər. Don’t eat none of them sard-onions!
The early favorite for word of year, lol, heh heh. You get to experience it while you think about it.
Gotta say, be careful with it. You think it settled down and Bam, it sneaks up on you again.
Thanks for that etymology.
And with a nod to the 1961 William Castle film Mr. Sardonicus.
And UB40?
https://youtu.be/AC8YBNLaK7o?si=JA7yGW0NVR_0Froe