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Trading on Violence
Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.
Mar 2
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Claude (Anthropic) on the Tariff Case
There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of…
Feb 20
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Rajiv Sethi
11
2
2
The Second Coming
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two…
Feb 16
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Rajiv Sethi
24
3
10
Guessing Games
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of…
Jan 18
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Rajiv Sethi
26
6
The Venezuela Windfall
Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.
Jan 8
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Rajiv Sethi
21
8
5
Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds
I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.
Dec 10, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
23
16
5
Encountering the Buddha
I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.
Nov 26, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
16
2
The Detection of Wash Trading
Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened…
Nov 12, 2025
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Rajiv Sethi
15
4
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