MENA’s transformative role in climate adaptation

Climate change continues to be a firm fixture on the agendas of governments in the Middle East and North Africa due to the profound impact it has on the region’s economies, communities and ecosystems. Cities and areas across the MENA region are at the center of multifarious climate risks, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Experts are sounding the alarm on the necessity of climate action plans to mitigate the effects of climate change on the region, where vulnerabilities are intensifying by the day. The MENA region is prone to extreme heat, with a World Bank study forecasting that temperatures will soar as high as 56 degrees Celsius if global temperatures rise by 4 C above pre-industrial levels. This would translate to summer heat in parts of Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq intensifying by up to 8 C by 2100, highlighting the dire implications of inaction for one of the world’s hottest regions.
Furthermore, data derived from 2018 figures published by the Food and Agriculture Organization paints a gloomy outlook for water resources. The MENA region is currently the most water-stressed area globally, with about 60 percent of the population residing in areas experiencing severe water stress. According to projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in temperature of up to 2 C could lead to devastating impacts, with freshwater availability in the region declining by between 15 percent and 45 percent. Consequently, this climate-driven water scarcity is projected to negatively impact the region’s gross domestic product growth, potentially causing a substantial decrease of 6 percent to 14 percent by 2050.
The MENA region is also facing heightened risks from rising sea levels. Nearly a quarter of the region’s coastal GDP and a fifth of its urban coastal areas are highly susceptible to these changes. By 2030, some 100 million residents could be exposed to coastal flooding, threatening critical infrastructure, including 43 major port cities.
Due to these multiple uncertainties, climate change is likely to weaken regional food systems and domestic agricultural productivity, thereby severely aggravating the food insecurity situation in the region and pivoting communities to increased reliance on food imports, which are frequently subject to price and supply fluctuations. The World Bank estimates that 132 million people will be flung into poverty due to severe climate events jeopardizing the lives and livelihoods of low-income communities.
Moreover, extreme weather events will pose significant public health risks, with an estimated 40 percent of lost working hours being due to heat stress by 2030. This will also exacerbate existing health burdens, leading to a number of heat-related illnesses and deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, it is estimated that the rates of climate migration will increase substantially due to the effects of climate change.
Such perilous projections accentuate the urgency for regional governments to adopt sustainable climate adaptation strategies in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. That is why last year’s COP28 climate change conference was a pivotal milestone toward accelerating the progress toward a more sustainable future in the region.
The UAE’s presidency of COP28 was instrumental in shaping the global climate agenda, culminating in the UAE Consensus, which outlines comprehensive agreements to tackle climate challenges, in addition to a set of declarations to advance climate actions globally. On the first day of COP28, a landmark agreement was made to activate the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, for which $853 million has been pledged thus far. It aims to arrange funding solutions for developing countries that are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
The key outcomes of COP28, through the UAE Consensus and across the Presidential Action Agenda, included the unprecedented and noteworthy decision to shift away from fossil fuels in energy systems, emphasizing the importance of doing so in a manner that is fair, systematic and inclusive of all affected communities. Additionally, an agreement was set to accelerate the global energy transition, reflected in tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, while also significantly reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions. 

The Middle East Green Initiative, led by Saudi Arabia, is the largest afforestation program in the world.

Sara Al-Mulla

Another milestone agreement was the launch of a global initiative to end deforestation by 2030. Additionally, emissions are targeted to peak by 2025 in alignment with the 1.5 C climate pathway, focusing on both sustainable development and poverty eradication. COP28 also sparked significant momentum toward advancing climate adaptation finance, going beyond the initial goal of doubling funding. Other declarations addressed the growing need to design and implement policies that maximize public health benefits from climate change mitigation and prevent dire health impacts, in addition to providing ample support to vulnerable agricultural producers impacted by climate change.
The MENA region has been making significant strides in the area of climate action, demonstrating its commitment to aligning the region’s contributions to the global climate agenda. At COP28, the UAE and the Gates Foundation announced a joint $200 million investment aimed at leveraging artificial intelligence and technology to tackle climate change’s impact on global food systems.
This funding supports several key initiatives, which harness the power of AI to enhance agricultural services for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, in addition to finding solutions to protect palm trees from pest threats and bolstering agricultural resilience through climate vulnerability diagnostics, mitigation-adaptation assessments and high-quality weather forecasting technologies.
At COP29 last month, the UAE announced the Mangrove Alliance for Climate Strategy, which is designed to accelerate global mangrove conservation efforts and emphasize the UAE’s commitment to restoring 100 million mangroves by 2030. In tandem, the UAE also unveiled the Global Energy Efficiency Alliance, with the goal of doubling global energy efficiency rates by 2030.
The Middle East Green Initiative, led by Saudi Arabia, is the largest afforestation program in the world and it aims to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by expanding green spaces across the Kingdom and other MENA countries. Its ambitions include the planting of 50 billion trees across the region and restoration of 200 million hectares of degraded land.
In another pioneering example, the Saudi Electricity Company has partnered with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology to launch a groundbreaking research project at the Rabigh Power Plant. This initiative, overseen by the Ministry of Energy, focuses on testing innovative carbon capture technology that utilizes freezing techniques to capture carbon and treat various pollutants. The process achieves a carbon purity of up to 99 percent, marking a significant step forward in the country’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Meanwhile, Oman is taking significant strides toward becoming a global leader in green hydrogen production. It aims to scale up the production of green hydrogen, with investments projected to reach up to $140 billion by 2050, supporting a production capacity of 7.5 million to 8 million tonnes per year.
The National Climate Change Plan 2030 recently unveiled by the government of Qatar outlines more than 300 initiatives designed to bolster the country’s climate adaptation efforts. The strategy sets a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2030. It also focuses on restoring 30 percent of natural habitats affected by climate change, conserving 30 percent of land and coastal areas and protecting 17 species that are either endangered or endemic to the region.
Considering the many collective efforts expended by MENA countries, several critical aspects must be considered for continued progress. Monitoring and tracking the effectiveness of climate initiatives through big data is essential for evaluating commitments to meeting climate targets. Additionally, greater investment in green technologies and infrastructure, alongside strengthening cooperation with innovators from the private sector or research centers, will be key to unlocking many new solutions powered by emerging technologies.
Collaboration with subject matter experts can also provide the necessary expertise to address the many complex challenges facing the region, in addition to transferring skills to developing a sizable and competent green workforce. Regulations should also support climate action agendas with the aim of enforcing efficiency targets and mitigation measures.
As the region faces some of the most severe impacts of climate change, the necessity for transformative climate policies has never been more pressing. The momentum seen since COP28 has been pivotal to securing a greener, more resilient future, but sustained efforts will be necessary to meet both regional and global climate targets.

• Sara Al-Mulla is an Emirati civil servant with an interest in human development policy and children’s literature. She can be contacted at www.amorelicious.com.