Scenario Building

The future is by its very nature uncertain and unknown, and only by discussion and debate regarding how the future may develop can we adequately prepare for what may lie ahead. A collaborative scenario development process was developed with the European Construction Institute (ECI) Industry Futures Task Force. This involved investigating and debating the range of issues and factors that might impact upon the European construction industry in the next couple of decades, which resulted in the development of four future scenarios for the ...

Purpose-The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore.
Design/methodology/approach-This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants.
Findings-This study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore's vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered.
Research limitations/implications-As the findings are fruit of the authors' interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research.
Originality/value-This study presents the interpretation of elite informants' accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.

The paper aims to determine plausible scenarios for widespread adoption of online residential cleaning services in the Philippines by 2025.

A section in the paper summarizes the different incumbent industry players in the Philippines and their value propositions. Since most of the SMEs in the country offering such services are in their infancy stage, several scenarios can be drawn out of the uncertainties which also make the study interesting in exploring the lucrativeness and marketability of the online residential cleaning service industry.

A section in the paper also summarizes different notable Online Cleaning Service or OCS in other countries and their successful strategies in bringing the service to the market. The reasons behind OCS failures, such as Homejoy, and its recommendations are also discussed.

In order to derive scenarios and strategies, the project methodology used is the 10-step scenario building tool. Through scenario development, both the public and the private sectors can anticipate possible risks in the future and maximize the opportunities through the paper􏰁s recommended strategies. Furthermore, the paper gives a thorough analysis on the implications of different strategies and its conditions to be executed.

This paper examines the role of narrative in the process of interactive experience design, focusing on the potential uses of narrative in prototyping and iteration efforts to uncover deeper and more meaningful responses from users by engaging them in the co-creation of narratives of use around the design. We created a series of narrative fictions with embedded design concepts, and built low-fi prototype artifacts for directed storytelling sessions with twelve participants. We conclude with a discussion of findings regarding the opportunities to more effectively use narrative techniques and immersive storytelling to create valuable experiences between designers and users.

Effective management of artisanal fisheries requires understanding fishers, their behaviors, and the drivers that underpin their choices. Behavioral drivers are critical links in understanding the interactions between social and ecological systems and can help inform effective management approaches. A Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach was used to investigate a diverse range of qualitative and quantitative social and ecological drivers of spatial location choice in a multi-species artisanal dive fishery in Costa Rica. Empirical and observer data used to populate the BBN showed the influence of economic factors, environmental conditions as well as social interactions on the decision-making process of spatial location choice. Good governance scenarios represented by Responsible Fisheries Marine Areas Management were analyzed for both hookah and free diving methods to assess the effects of responsible fishing on the fishers and the fishery. Model based-scenario analysis suggests that management interventions should consider the fisher's potential behavioral responses in the context of environmental variability, dependence on cultural assets, and food security. The results show that there is a need to understand fisher's decisions based on broad socio-ecological system understanding and consider the environmental outcomes alongside food security and the cultural significance of different marine species to fishing communities.

In a turbulent environment characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question "who are we as an organization?" Some organizations may concurrently hold multiple identities without being clear on whether these are shared and agreed upon, and on their role in potentially disruptive futures. In response to this challenge and addressing a methodological gap in the broader futures and foresight field, we draw on both futures and foresight as well as management and organization literature to propose a new organizational foresight method: Identity Wind Tunneling (IWT). Designed as an enhancement of wind tunneling approaches, IWT allows an organization to understand, test, and manage multiple organizational identities. Furthermore, IWT facilitates the alignment of organizational identities across a range of possible futures created during a scenario planning process with the ultimate goal of finding a strategic identity. This represents the central, enduring, and distinctive role that the organization embodies while pursuing a long-term and holistic strategic direction that is robust across all scenarios. The strategic identity either clarifies or reimagines the identity of the organization. The paper provides a step-by-step explanation of how to implement IWT and presents a case study of its application. The method is also presented with a series of open-source templates created on the whiteboard collaborative platform Miro (https://miro.com/app/board/ o9J_kqakY js=/).

We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self‐sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientific theory on futures and foresight practices and processes in organizations. Drawing from the tradition of management and organization sciences, we describe what scientific theory in the context of organizations is and is not, and how theory development contributes to the incremental progress of scientific fields. We then unpack the crux of the problem, deconstructing the resistance to scientific theory within our field into nine, closely related reasons. We offer solutions to the problem in the form of three sets of recommendations: for authors, journal editors, and practitioners. We conclude by responding to likely misunderstandings in advance.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

The paper aims to determine plausible scenarios for widespread adoption of online residential cleaning services in the Philippines by 2025.

A section in the paper summarizes the different incumbent industry players in the Philippines and their value propositions. Since most of the SMEs in the country offering such services are in their infancy stage, several scenarios can be drawn out of the uncertainties which also make the study interesting in exploring the lucrativeness and marketability of the online residential cleaning service industry.

A section in the paper also summarizes different notable Online Cleaning Service or OCS in other countries and their successful strategies in bringing the service to the market. The reasons behind OCS failures, such as Homejoy, and its recommendations are also discussed.

In order to derive scenarios and strategies, the project methodology used is the 10-step scenario building tool. Through scenario development, both the public and the private sectors can anticipate possible risks in the future and maximize the opportunities through the paper􏰁s recommended strategies. Furthermore, the paper gives a thorough analysis on the implications of different strategies and its conditions to be executed.

Von den Veröffentlichungen der Lehrstuhlinhaber für Demographie und anderer
Bevölkerungswissenschaftler in den 1970er Jahren zu einer Enquete-Kommission
zum Thema über drei Legislaturperioden über den Jahrtausendwechsel hinweg, hatte
der Demographische Wandel einen weiten Weg ins Bewusstsein der Bevölkerung
zurückzulegen (vgl. HOHMEIER/ POHL 1978; KROHN 1978; LEHR 1978a,b; BUNDESMINISTERIUM FÜR JUGEND, FAMILIE UND GESUNDHEIT 1979; HÖHN 1979;
SCHMID, J. 1979; SCHWARZ 1979; WINGEN 1979; DEUTSCHER BUNDESTAG 2002).
Ein Marketingprogramm der Bundesregierung namens demotrans konnte Anregungen
im Bereich Arbeitspolitik geben (vgl. BUCK 2005, Z. 8-101). Finanzierungslücken in der
Pflegeversicherung zeigen schlaglichtartig eine zukünftig größere Bevölkerungsgruppe
an sehr alten Menschen auf (vgl. WEISS 2005). Bundesfamilienministerin von
der Leyen muss starke Überzeugungsarbeit innerhalb ihrer Partei und im Kabinett
leisten, um das Thema Kinderbetreuung als vordringlich zu benennen. All dies sind
Fragmente eines seit Jahren und Jahrzehnten, und wie zu zeigen sein wird, schon
seit einem Jahrhundert andauerndem Wandel, der unter dem Namen Demographischer
Übergang oder öfter Demographischer Wandel viele, wenn nicht alle politischen, gesellschaftlichen und somit auch wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen der
kommenden Jahrzehnte beeinflussen oder sogar dominieren kann.
Wesentlich sind in diesem Zusammenhang die Abhängigkeiten der Entwicklungen der
Altersgruppen in der Bevölkerung untereinander. Alterung ist kein Problem der Alten,
Kinderlosigkeit nicht nur ein Problem der Paare im zeugungs- und gebärfähigen Alter
(vgl. BIRG 2005). Eine Gesellschaft als Aggregat seiner Teile spiegelt diesen Umschwung wider, in dem sich nicht nur die Altersgruppen untereinander verschieben,
sondern der Median, das mittlere Altersjahr, stetig wächst. Es wird hier von einer
alternden Gesellschaft gesprochen.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.
Design/methodology/approach-The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.
Findings-The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.
Originality/value-The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

This thesis has two main aims. The first of these is to study available methodologies for researching the future in the social sciences, and particularly in political science and international relations (IR). To be more specific, it attempts to determine whether it is possible to establish, given the present state of scientific knowledge, a relatively rigorous method for examining the futures of socio-political phenomena. The second aim is to set out to use the methodological approach(es) established in the first part of the study to examine the future of China, both as an applied example of the use of the methodology as well as an end in itself within IR’s sub-field of China studies. Thus, the thesis fits within the areas of future studies and China studies, but with a particular focus on the implications of the research for political science and IR within the broader social sciences.
The research reveals that the most suitable candidate for researching socio-political futures, at least until computer modelling and complexity theory are refined enough to examine the future with greater accuracy (if this is possible), is scenario construction, given that it deals not with prediction of definite outcomes, but with future possibilities. Since scenario construction, however, is a faute de mieux methodology (meaning that, despite inadequacies, it is less inadequate than the alternatives), there is a need to develop it further. The thesis’ primary research attempts to do this by taking and adapting Delphi method’s premise that consensus expert opinion can, at least to a degree, act as a counterweight to individual bias, and thereby constructing scenarios on the basis of a typology of expert forecasts. The main part of the research thus focuses on constructing scenarios of China’s future out of a typology of expert forecasts concerning China’s development up to 2050. The ultimate goals are to assess the degree of success of the resulting scenario construction project, and to develop a basis for further research into both China’s future in particular and the study of socio-political futures in general.

Durch die genaue Analyse der Rolle von zwölf relevanten Akteuren im syrischen Bürgerkrieg, die entweder ein lokales, regionales oder internationales Profil besitzen, ihrer Ziele und Befürchtungen sowie möglicher proaktiver Handlungsoptionen dieser Schlüsselakteure gelangt man zu teilweise sehr überraschenden Erkenntnissen. So ergab die Analyse zum Beispiel, dass bei geänderten Rahmenbedingungen durchaus auch politische und militärische Koalitionen zwischen Akteuren möglich sind, die nicht dem ursprünglichen Freund-Feind-Schema zu Beginn des Bürgerkriegs entsprechen. Ein Beispiel dafür stellt die Entwicklung dar, dass in der Wahrnehmung
westlicher Akteure islamistische Dschihadisten mittlerweile als größere Gefahr für den Frieden perzipiert werden als der ursprüngliche „Hauptfeind“, das syrische Regime von Baschar al-Asad.

A comparative review and analysis of 42 different scenario projects drawn from government and NGO futures projects around the world. Both the methods used and the content of the resulting scenarios are compared and clustered, resulting in a 'roadmap' of scenario archetypes. The methods review also includes the results of "lessons learned" contributed by both government policy staff, and the futures/foresight consultants who contributed the scenario research.

We would like to extend our thanks to colleagues and students in the third year (ID301) studio, for their valuable involvement at the project negotiation stages and for providing an excellent foundation of future scenarios, on which we could frame and build our project. We also extend our sincerest gratitude to all staff at BSH and Profilo, not only for choosing METU Department of Industrial Design for such a highly challenging and stimulating project, but also for their generosity in time and advice. Their enthusiasm and commitment undoubtedly drove our students to achieve the outstanding results that are evident throughout this catalogue.

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curves.

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project water scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and
probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of
methodological choice possibilities.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English
language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have
arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations
to open up the methodological space available.
Findings – The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature –
and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a
richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.

This paper highlights the importance of Software architecture in the present IT industry scenario. It  focuses on different architectural styles and their suitability in existing projects. The paper provides an overall view of the importance of Software Architecture in the present context.The intricacies involved in the design issues are also highlighted

Scenario planning studies are an important CNR-Irpps research branch for about fifteen years. The innovative Delphi methodology developed by the Institute (Delphi MIX), and over time improved by the editor of this paper, has had several applications in national and international context. These research addressed different themes that concerned social, cultural, demographic and health aspects of the population. This paper presents the results of a Delphi study on blood donation in Italy - commissioned in 2016 by the Italian Voluntary Blood Association (AVIS) -, and outlines communicative and organizational strategies that will strengthen the practice of donating over the next ten years. In this innovative future scenario the concept of gift becomes synonymous with well-being, social inclusion, socialization.

Szenarien sind allgegenwärtig: als Klima- oder Wirtschafts-, als Best-Case- oder Worst-Case-, als Katastrophen- oder gar apokalyptische Szenarien. Diese Untersuchung formuliert mit Blick auf zwei historische Zeitschichten Antworten darauf, wie die Rede vom »Szenario« - ausgehend von Drama, Theater und Film - auf Bereiche der militärstrategischen und ökonomischen Planung durchgreift. Szenarien werden so als Sichtbarkeitsmaschinen nicht nur in visueller und numerischer Hinsicht entwickelt, sondern gerade im Sinne improvisatorischer Evidenzerzeugung. Sie dienen als Instrumente der szenischen Einbildung des Künftigen.

Quantitative point forecasts of energy and emissions have experienced difficulty with responding to uncertainty. Accuracy issues arise even in the short term with consequences for policy. The technique of scenario analysis is increasingly applied in scientific inquiry on the long term but it also has utility in the short term. This paper presents a discussion of the use of forecasts for prediction and proposes integrated or ´hybrid´ exploratory qualitative and quantitative scenarios in its stead. Various methodological issues are explored towards formulation of a scenario development process. Integrated scenarios structure thinking on the future, bound uncertainty, document important assumptions, aid communication, widen perspectives, can explore new dynamics and permit the exploration of ´softer´ issues in development paths such as governance, social and cultural drivers. These can be crucial to outcomes but are not captured by quantitative approaches alone. An example of the technique employed to construct integrated scenarios for Ireland to 2020 is presented, which as a process is applicable with diverse quantitative techniques. The advancement of more broad holistic perspectives on development and processes of change is policy relevant in all states, for which purpose integrated scenarios are an ideal analysis and mainstreaming tool even on short time scales.