Scenario planning

Scenario planning should be an effective tool for developing responses to climate change but will depend on ecological assessments of broad enough scope to support decision-making. Using climate projections from an ensemble of 16 models, we conducted an assessment of a midcontinental area of North America (Minnesota) based on a resistance, resilience, and facilitation framework. We assessed likely impacts and proposed options for eight landscape regions within the planning area. Climate change projections suggest that by 2069, average annual temperatures will increase 3°C with a slight increase in precipitation (6%). Analogous climate locales currently prevail 400-500 km SSW. Although the effects of climate change may be resisted through intensive management of invasive species, herbivores, and disturbance regimes, conservation practices need to shift to facilitation and resilience. Key resilience actions include providing buffers for small reserves, expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity, prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges, and managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands. Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants), enlarge seed zones, and include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low-risk facilitation strategy. Monitoring ''trailing edge" populations of rare species should be a high conservation priority to support decisionmaking related to assisted colonization. Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world.

Shifting from fossil to clean energy sources is a major global challenge, but in particular for those countries with substantial fossil-fuel reserves and economies depending on fossil-fuel exports. Here we introduce an improved framework for renewable energy planning and decision-making to help such countries to more effectively harness their abundant renewable energy resources. We use Iran as a case for the analysis. The framework includes identifying and removing barriers that prevent the use of renewables. It is based on combining two models: Benefit, Opportunity, Cost, Risk (BOCR) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) models. In the analyses, the mutual weight of strategic criteria is employed such as technology, economy, energy vulnerability, security,
global effects, and human wellbeing. Using the integrated model, we find that solar energy would be the preferential renewable energy source for Iran. Also, the role of infrastructures, policies, and administrative structures in renewable energy to facilitate their development was analyzed. The renewable energy policy-making framework presented is applicable to other countries as well.

We reviewed a broad range of scenarios of the future developed for Australia and globally and developed a synthesis for Australia. Our four synthesis scenarios were structured around two axes: (1) individual vs. community orientation and (2) whether biophysical limits are binding on continued GDP growth or could be overcome with technology. While global scenarios have explored transformational or collapse futures, very few scenarios at the national scale for Australia have done so. Australian scenarios
have also not articulated positive futures that are very different from the status quo. We have addressed this gap. We describe each scenario in tabular and summary form. We also developed a public opinion survey to be used to involve Australians in ranking the scenarios and thinking about the future they want. This extension of scenario planning is novel and we hope to employ it to improve thinking, discussion, and policy about Australia’s future.

The future of minerals exploration remains uncertain as geological, economic, environmental and socio-political issues impact upon the funding and land access required for exploration. Technology, innovation and improved skills and education are often cited as general methods for resolving geological and even economic difficulties in exploration, however, this leaves critical environmental and socio-political issues unresolved. A recent scenario planning workshop, via an emergent and collective decision, investigated the interaction of technology, skills and education and the environmental and socio-political issues prevailing on explorers. The scenarios workshop used the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and started out with purely strategic intentions. The initial findings suggested that technology and education played a key role in societal development overall and therefore the exploration industry could use these to enhance its reputation, and in turn overall access to search space. However, the systemic reputational vulnerability of the mining industry, where one incident by an industry party beyond the actors control, can damage the reputation of everyone in the industry, means this 'reputation-based' strategy is very difficult to pursue individually, and thus collective action is required. With this realisation, the workshop moved into a transformative scenarios approach, more focused on galvanising social action towards a better future. As such two future scenarios were envisioned – a negative 'Two Peoples' scenario, where the world is trapped in cycle of revolution caused by inequity between the 'haves' and 'have not's'; and a positive 'iWorld' scenario, which breaks the cycle creating a prosperous yet more equitable society. Clearly, the collective aim of the mining industry should be to move towards the iWorld scenario. To transition into this future, explorers must not only become more technologically sophisticated and innovative, but also more collaborative with both local communities, and national and supranational governments. This concept is described as 'big exploration' where the importance of 'boots on the ground' is not just geological, but socio-political. Whether companies, professionals, and the professional societies involved in exploration are ready for this transition remains an unanswered question.

Freshco, a small producer and distributor of hybrid maize seed and macadamia seedlings, was one of the first private companies to enter the Kenya seed market after its liberalization. Currently, the company produces and markets six high yielding maize varieties that are ...

Synthèse de recherche en Atelier du Projet Urbain 2010 à l'EPAU: diagnostic, scénarios et plan d'action pour accroître l'attractivité d'un territoire en déséquilibre.

BEREZOWSKA-AZZAG E., (s/d), ABDELATIF I., AKROUR N., HALIMI R., "Approche du Projet Urbain par la mise en attractivité d'un territoire. Bab Ezzouar, El Harrach, Oued Smar à Alger", in Revue Vies de Villes, Architecture, Urbanisme & Société, Hors Série n°04, "Projet urbain, espoirs et incertitudes", ALUR, Alger, décembre 2012, 104 p., pp. 80-88, ISSN 1112-5284,  www.viesdevilles.net

Moderne Gesellschaften stehen bei vielen grundlegenden und langfristigen Entscheidungen vor der Herausforderung, sich ein Bild über die Zukunft machen zu müssen. Szenarioanalysen zählen mittlerweile zum Standardrepertoire von Wissenschaft, Politik und Wirtschaft, um diese Entscheidungen wissensbasiert und systematisch zu unterstützen. Bei der Szenarioentwicklung treffen unterschiedlichste wissenstheoretische Traditionen aufeinander: Szenarien werden in Form von Trendextrapolationen, makroökonomischen Modellierungen, Computersimulationen oder narrativen Diskursen entwickelt. Dieser Beitrag widmet sich modellbasierten Szenarioanalysen und thematisiert dabei die Frage, wie die sozialen Dimensionen der zu analysierenden Systeme in die Szenarien einbezogen werden können. Wir vertreten hier die These, dass technisch-ökonomische Zukunftsanalysen unvermeidlich auf sozialen Annahmen basieren und stellen drei Grundprobleme von rein modellgestützten Szenarioanalysen heraus: (1) Nicht quantifizier-bare, gesellschaftliche Dimensionen werden vernachlässigt, (2) der Unsi-cherheit der berücksichtigten gesellschaftlichen Annahmen wird meist nur unzureichend Rechnung getragen und (3) die Komplexität und Wechselwir-kung zwischen verschiedenen gesellschaftlichen Einflussfaktoren wird nur implizit betrachtet und kaum berücksichtigt. Wir stellen daher das Konzept der "Kontextszenarien" vor, mit dem qualitative gesellschaftliche Szenarien entwickelt werden, die dann als Grundlage für mathematische Simulationen dienen können. So wird ein konkreter Beitrag zu einer systematischeren Berücksichtigung gesellschaftlicher Zusammenhänge hin zur Entwicklung eines interdisziplinären Ansatzes in der modellgestützten Szenarioanalyse geleistet.

In this issue we ask how well we inherently understand East African Countries. As East African issues are being discussed or decided at regional organs of the East African Community (EAC), does the public truly know and comprehend the impact of integration? Digging for such information based on properly researched evidence is always a good thing because of the likelihood of having to dispel existing assumptions. That is what is beginning to happen in Tanzania following the Society for International Development's (SID) collaboration with Twaweza in the Tanzania Dialogues Initiative.

Most perceptions of Tanzania and its citizens are a characterization of lukewarm attitudes towards integration initiatives. This perception is so prevalent that most of the reporting on Tanzanian feelings towards the "Coalition of the Willing" (COW) seemed to brand them as very unenthusiastic in progressing the integration agenda and that it was justi?ed to let them (together with Burundi) catch up in future. Surprisingly, it emerged from the Sauti za Wananchi survey conducted with Twaweza that 80 percent of Tanzanians believe fully in the East African integration process. The majority of those who had heard of the COW wanted to join it. So, if integration is so popular in Tanzania, is the problem its leadership or its bureaucracy?

Even more astounding, despite a historical rivalry with Kenya, Tanzanians view the country as a popular partner. The same is the case with Uganda although the two share much more cordial relations in history. In that sense it seems a legacy of the three pioneer countries in the EAC is still very strong all the way down to the general populace. Maybe this is the reason why a single tourist visa and progress on free movement have been warmly welcomed. Tanzanians just can't wait for an opportunity to visit Kampala or Nairobi! This will surely work into the very optimistic view of their future.

Other than reporting these Tanzanian perspectives, this issue also comments on growing in?uence of Kenya's military in domestic security. The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) may require a little more nuance in service provision. Our bookworm gets to review "Through My African Eyes" by the 'in-your-face, intensive if not hypertensive but humorous' man, Je? Koinange, as he weaves a profound story of the challenges, intrigues, and focus in the experiences of an African journalist.

Additionally, this issue also tries to ask how the Greater Horn of East Africa (GHEA) is coping with mental health issues within a context of so many trauma related events. This is especially the case, in light of increased participation in actions of conventional warfare while still having to face many other scary and shocking events that are likely to manifest in generations of people afflicted by Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Such shocking events can be like what our reporter in 2026 informs us as the occupation of Burundi by Tanzanian forces. One can never tell what this could mean, not only for the psyche of the nation but also the mental health of Burundians at border points going to be attacked in that time by the Union of Kivu Peoples (UPK).

Despite the mostly gory news coming out of Kenya these days, Irungu Houghton points us to some good work coming out of Kilimani neighborhood in Nairobi. Through a place-based organizing initiative residents are envisioning an alternate concept of their spaces, therefore, gaining more ownership to confidently demand better services while improving their society by building: trust, community and solidarity beyond maintenance of utilities. It is clear that this can only happen with greater imagination and openness in processes. In Ebola, another horrific story, we find light through lessons provided by gallant Ugandan doctors as they help out their West African brothers in their time of need.

We also get to ask if Sudan and its Al-Ingaz regime are actually 'friendly' to the integrationist development agenda in the GHEA; particularly in the EAC. This is in light of very revealing leaked documents of its Military and Security Committee that speak of its intentions to continue facilitating protracted fighting in South Sudan and possible linkages with militias such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia where a number of EAC countries are engaged in peacemaking under the banner of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom). And what lies in wait for Burundi if its people continue to suffer from hunger and ill-health? Lastly, in our 'Tweenterview' section we feature Aly-Khan Saatchu's monthly #Mindspeak series, where he invited TradeMark East Africa (TMEA) Chief Executive Officer Frank Matsaert to talk on how to "Unleash the East African Lion". Let's think about it.

This study is the first of its kind to apply the scenario technique approach to explore the future of wearable technologies in tourism. Focus groups were conducted to gain an understanding of the core factors that will determine the future use of wearable devices in an on-site tourism context. Software, Hardware, Network & Infrastructure, Comfort & Embodiment, Functions & Usages, Reliability and Third Party Access were identified as the most influential factors. Their future development will determine how tourists will employ wearable devices in their tourism experiences. The proposed future scenarios could serve as guidance for decision-makers in the organisational and destination management context. This research contributes to the theory on technology-mediated experiences in tourism and addresses the gap in literature regarding the tourist experience on-site whilst using wearable technology.

Related video by authors about this paper from Wiley: https://onlinelibrary-wiley-com.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/journal/25735152

Scholars claim that futures and foresight science should overcome “confusion” regarding the definition of core concepts, for example, the scenario. Admittedly, defining
scenario has been a challenge. Current practice, which results in repeated attempts to clarify said confusion with yet another new definition of scenario, has apparently not advanced the field. An alternative option is not to redefine scenario, but to, instead, create a shared definition composed of component parts of pre‐existing definitions. The result is an operant or synthesized definition based on analysis of claims indicating what “a scenario is…” and “scenarios are…” in the literature on scenario planning. The authors find that scenarios have a temporal property rooted in the future and reference external forces in that context; scenarios should be possible and plausible while taking the proper form of a story or narrative description; and that scenarios exist in sets that are systematically prepared to coexist as meaningful alternatives to one another. Despite claims to the contrary, the authors find that the academic community of futures and foresight science does not seem to suffer from so‐called confusion over the definition of scenario, and thus, it is time to sunset the use of claims to this end.