Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Yes, It’s Possible. Ariana Grande Can Win for ‘Wicked’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 21, 2024): People and pundits may not be ready to have this conversation, but I will — yes, Ariana Grande can, in fact, win an Academy Award for her role in Wicked.
As Glinda, Grande brings charm and wit to a character known for her bubbly exterior and hidden depth. The 31-year-old pop star commands each of Glinda’s signature numbers, including a delightful rendition of “Popular.” But her knack for comedic timing makes her performance stand out. Her delivery of various one-liners and zingers is one of the film’s highlights, and it could ultimately position her for a first-time Oscar nomination in the best supporting actress category. Grande’s Glinda is both endearing and hilarious, making her a strong contender in an award race that often favors musical talents.
It wouldn’t be the first time a pop star successfully transitioned to the Dolby Theatre. Cher won best actress for “Moonstruck” just a few years after her first nomination for “Silkwood,” proving that pop stars can shine just about anywhere if they land the right role. And this role? It’s the one Grande was born to play.
The supporting actress category has long been a welcoming space for musical performances. From Meryl Streep’s nomination in “Into the Woods” to Catherine Zeta-Jones’ win in “Chicago,” the Academy has often celebrated actresses who can showcase their vocal talents. That also bodes well for her closest competitor, Zoe Saldaña from the Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” and her co-star Selena Gomez, who can come along for the ride.
But let’s take a detour into another realm of musical performances. Monica Barbaro, known to some for her role in “Top Gun: Maverick,” steps into the transformative and delectable role of Joan Baez in James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown.” Here, she proves she’s a bona fide star, capturing the essence of Baez’s quiet strength and musical soul. Barbaro has earned her place among the year’s most exciting breakout performances, positioning herself as a dark horse contender for Oscar recognition.
Barbaro also shares the screen with Elle Fanning, who delivers a standout performance as Sylvia, a fictionalized version of Dylan’s first love. Fanning’s role may not include singing or dancing, but it’s no less demanding. She must portray a character who serves as the audience’s lens into Dylan’s enigmatic world. As Sylvia, Fanning’s emotional depth stands out, especially in a pivotal final scene.
In “Unknown,” she observes, cries, and becomes a silent witness to a turbulent, musical journey. Perhaps she can come along too if the movie hits with the Actors Branch?
Below are the latest rankings for best supporting actress. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 2 Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 3 Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 4 Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 5 Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Netflix / Courtesy Everett Collection Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 7 Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 8 Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) 9 Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 10 Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features) 12 Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi) 13 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 14 Leonie Benesch — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 15 Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 16 Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 17 Jamie Lee Curtis — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) 18 Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 19 Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 20 Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Toni Collette — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) 22 Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 23 Fernanda Montenegro — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 24 Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 25 Lesley Manville — “Queer” (A24) 26 Rachel Sennott — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 27 Dolly De Leon — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films) 28 Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 29 Brenda Song — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) 30 Brigette Lundy-Paine — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Supporting Actress)
Image Credit: Focus Features ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Sophie Wilde — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Juliet Cowan — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Lesley Manville — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Alison Steadman — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Nykiya Adams — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Adria Arjona — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Geena Davis — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Alia Shawkat — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Erin Kellyman — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Hayley Squires — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Lashana Lynch — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Anna Diop — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Alfre Woodard — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **
- Cailee Spaeny — “Civil War” (A24)
- Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Dafne Keen — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Glenn Close — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Demi Singleton — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Renate Reinsve — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Beanie Feldstein — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Geraldine Viswanathan — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Rebecca Ferguson — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Zendaya — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
- Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon)
- Oluniké Adeliyi — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Dolly De Leon — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Trine Dyrholm — “The Girl with the Needle” (Mubi)
- Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Michelle Dockery — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Kelly Reilly — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
- Chloe East — “Heretic” (A24)
- Sophie Thatcher — “Heretic” (A24)
- Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Sienna Miller — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Fernanda Montenegro — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Sasha Calle — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Lio Mehiel — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) **
- Zoe Ziegler — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Zazie Beetz — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
- Catherine Keener — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Toni Collette — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) **
- Zoey Deutch — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Hong Chau — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jamie Lee Curtis — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Billie Lourd — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Brenda Song — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Marion Cotillard — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Andrea Riseborough — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Karen Gillan — “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Katy O’Brian — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- Valeria Golino — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Aubrey Plaza — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Tiffany Boone — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Maddie Ziegler — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Jessica Harper — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Emma Corrin — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Uma Thurman — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Helena Bonham Carter — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Lena Olin — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Lesley Manville — “Queer” (A24)
- Jennifer Grey — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Amber Midthunder — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Ella Hunt — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Kim Matula — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Rachel Sennott — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Leonie Benesch — “September 5” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Oprah Winfrey — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Eileen Walsh — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Emily Watson — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Laura Linney — “Suncoast” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Juliette Lewis — “The Thicket” (Tubi Movies)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Michelle Yeoh — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Laura Linney — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- Tilda Cobham-Hervey — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actress)
Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety 2024 category winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
