Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature — Can the Branch Known for Snubbing Frontrunners Finally Embrace Popular Titles?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Documentary Feature
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 21, 2024): The race for best documentary feature is always full of surprises, and this year, no single nonfiction film has yet emerged as “the one to beat.”
Let’s not forget we’re dealing with the Documentary Branch — the always famously unpredictable and never without a few painful snubs. This is the same group that has shocked us by overlooking favorites like “Apollo 11,” “Jane,” “Three Identical Strangers,” and “American Symphony.”
One interesting piece of trivia to remember: Since 2000, only two filmmakers who’ve won Best Documentary Feature have managed to score another nomination after their victory. Michael Moore won for 2002’s “Bowling for Columbine” and was later nominated for 2007’s “Sicko.” Similarly, Laura Poitras won for 2014’s “Citizenfour” and received another nod for 2022’s “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.” It’s surprising how many previous winners have been omitted since, including big names like Davis Guggenheim (“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), Alex Gibney (“Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief,” “Totally Under Control”), and Morgan Neville (“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”). Could this frustrating trend continue, or will this year break the mold?
Neville is back in the running with his animated biopic “Piece by Piece,” which chronicles the life of Pharrell Williams. But will the Branch embrace re-creations of pivotal moments in Pharrell’s life? Given their history of ignoring innovative work like 2021’s “The Rescue” (which was directed by “Free Solo” winners Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin), there’s always a chance they might pass it over. The good thing is the film is also vying for animated feature and original song, which could prevent a total shutout.
On a more optimistic note, the branch has recently seen a significant boost in international members, which could open doors for non-U.S. productions. Thanks to this broadened voter base, films like Shiori Itô’s powerful “Black Box Diaries” and Mati Diop’s “Dahomey” — which is also Senegal’s official submission for International Feature — might have a better shot.
As the awards season progresses, National Geographic’s “Sugarcane” is already off to a strong start, leading the Critics Choice Documentary Awards with eight nominations. Joining the critically acclaimed film by Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie are contenders like “Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story,” “Daughters,” “The Greatest Night in Pop,” “Jim Henson: Idea Man,” “Music by John Williams,” “Piece by Piece,” “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” and “Will & Harper.”
Netflix is in a strong position with several top contenders. Among its significant hopefuls is the Sundance award winner “Daughters,” which is at the forefront of the race (at the moment). The platform also has titles like “Skywalkers: A Love Story” and “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” making it a formidable force in this year’s race.
It’s always worth remembering that no documentary has ever been nominated for best picture — though “Chang” was nominated in the now-defunct “Unique and Artistic Production” category at the 1927/28 Oscars. Perhaps it’s time to consider expanding the voting pool for this category to include other branches. It could be the key to seeing a nonfiction film finally make it into the race for the Academy’s top prize. It’s well past due.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 “Daughters” (Netflix) — Angela Patton, Natalie Rae 2 “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie 3 “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme) — Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning 4 “Dahomey” (Mubi) — Mati Diop, Judith Lou Lévy, Eve Robin 5 “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — Josh Greenbaum Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Johan Grimonprez, Ambroise Boimbo, Robert Lebeck Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films) — Daniela Völker 7 “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films) — Shiori Itô 8 “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber) — Johan Grimonprez, Rémi Grellety, Daan Milius 9 “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures) — Raoul Peck 10 “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse) — Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPré Pesmen Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Hiddenlight Prods. Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 “Bread and Roses” (Apple Original Films) 12 “Power” (Netflix) 13 “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film) 14 “Union” (Level Ground) 15 “Frida” (Amazon MGM) 16 “Zurawski v Texas” (No U.S. Distributor) 17 “Invisible Nation” (Abramorama) 18 “Copa 71” (Greenwich) 19 “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix) 20 “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.) Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Documentary Feature)
Image Credit: Courtesy Berlinale **This is the complete eligibility list released by the Academy on Nov. 21. Not all movies have met their release requirements, and changes may occur between now and shortlist voting.
- “Adrianne & the Castle”
- “After the Rain: Putin’s Stolen Children Come Home”
- “Agent of Happiness”
- “Am I Racist?”
- “American Cats: The Good, the Bad & the Cuddly”
- “Americans with No Address”
- “America’s Burning”
- “And So It Begins”
- “At the Door of the House Who Will Come Knocking”
- “Bad Actor: A Hollywood Ponzi Scheme”
- “Bad Faith”
- “Bad River”
- “Behind the Mist”
- “The Bibi Files”
- “Black Box Diaries”
- “Black Girls”
- “Blind Spot”
- “Blink”
- “Bob Mackie: Naked Illusion”
- “The Body Politic”
- “Bread & Roses”
- “Brief Tender Light”
- “Carol Doda Topless at the Condor”
- “Carville: Winning Is Everything, Stupid”
- “¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!”
- “Catching Fire: The Story of Anita Pallenberg”
- “Celebrating Laughter, The Life and Films of Colin Higgins”
- “The Commandant’s Shadow”
- “Copa 71”
- “The Cowboy and the Queen”
- “Dahomey”
- “Daughters”
- “Death without Mercy”
- “Einhundertvier”
- “Elton John: Never Too Late”
- “Eno”
- “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found”
- “Escape from Extinction Rewilding”
- “Every Little Thing”
- “The Fabulous Gold Harvesting Machine”
- “Farming the Revolution”
- “Favoriten”
- “Federer: Twelve Final Days”
- “Fighting Spirit: A Combat Chaplain’s Journey”
- “500 Days in the Wild”
- “The Flats”
- “Flipside”
- “Following Harry”
- “Food and Country”
- “Food, Inc. 2”
- “Forgetting the Many: The Royal Pardon of Alan Turing”
- “Frank Miller: American Genius”
- “Frida”
- “From Ground Zero”
- “Gaucho Gaucho”
- “Girls State”
- “God & Country”
- “Gonzo for Democracy”
- “The Grab”
- “The Greatest Night in Pop”
- “Happy Campers”
- “Happy Clothes: A Film about Patricia Field”
- “Hidden Master: The Legacy of George Platt Lynes”
- “Hollywoodgate”
- “Homegrown”
- “How to Come Alive with Norman Mailer”
- “Hummingbirds”
- “I Am: Celine Dion”
- “I Can’t Breathe”
- “In Between Stars and Scars: Masters of Cinema”
- “Indigo Girls: It’s Only Life After All”
- “Intercepted”
- “Invisible Nation”
- “It Happened on Our Ground”
- “Jewel of the Desert”
- “Jim Henson Idea Man”
- “Join or Die”
- “Just a Bit Outside: The Story of the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers”
- “King of Kings: Chasing Edward Jones”
- “Kiss the Future”
- “The Landscape and the Fury”
- “The Last Journey”
- “The Last of the Sea Women”
- “The Last Ones”
- “Leap of Faith”
- “Left Behind”
- “Legacy: The De-Colonized History of South Africa”
- “Look into My Eyes”
- “Lost Angel: The Genius of Judee Sill”
- “The Lost Legacy of Tony Gaudio”
- “Lovely Jackson”
- “Lover of Men, The Untold History of Abraham Lincoln”
- “Luther: Never Too Much”
- “Mad about the Boy – The Noel Coward Story”
- “Made in England: The Films of Powell and Pressburger”
- “Majority Rules”
- “Marching in the Dark”
- “Martha”
- “Maya and the Wave”
- “Mediha”
- “Merchant Ivory”
- “Mom & Dad’s Nipple Factory”
- “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”
- “Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa”
- “Music by John Williams”
- “My Sweet Land”
- “Natterer’s Treasure”
- “Never Look Away”
- “A New Kind of Wilderness”
- “New Wave”
- “No One Asked You”
- “No Other Land”
- “Nocturnes”
- “Nurse Unseen”
- “October H8te: The Fight for the Soul of America”
- “Of Color and Ink”
- “One Person, One Vote?”
- “1489”
- “One with the Whale”
- “Ozogoche”
- “Patrice: The Movie”
- “A Photographic Memory”
- “Piece by Piece”
- “Porcelain War”
- “Power”
- “Queendom”
- “Ray of Hope”
- “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin”
- “Remembering Gene Wilder”
- “Resurgo Detroit: The Rise from Within”
- “Resynator”
- “Sabbath Queen”
- “Samuel: Hollywood vs Hollywood”
- “Seeking Mavis Beacon”
- “Separated”
- “She Rises Up”
- “The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru”
- “The Sixth”
- “64 Days – The Insurrection Playbook”
- “Skywalkers: A Love Story”
- “Sorry/Not Sorry”
- “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
- “State Organs: Unmasking Transplant Abuse in China”
- “Stolen Time”
- “Stripped for Parts: American Journalism on the Brink”
- “Studio One Forever”
- “Sugarcane”
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
- “Sweetheart Deal”
- “Taking Venice”
- “The Taste of Mango”
- “The Tuba Thieves”
- “2073”
- “Uncropped”
- “Unfightable”
- “Union”
- “Veselka: The Rainbow on the Corner at the Center of the World”
- “Vigilantes Inc.: America’s New Vote Suppression Hitmen”
- “War Game”
- “We Will Dance Again”
- “Welcome to Babel”
- “Whale Restaurant”
- “Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law?”
- “Will & Harper”
- “William Shatner: You Can Call Me Bill”
- “The World According to Allee Willis”
- “The World Is Family”
- “Yintah”
- “Zurawski v Texas”
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More Information (Oscars: Best Documentary Feature)
Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety 2024 category winner: “20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) — Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
