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Japan's New Political Order: The Unexpected Rise of SanseitÅ in the July 2025 Upper House Election
This article is the English version of a previously posted piece titled âThe Deeper Layers of the IshimaruâSaitÅâSanseitÅ Phenomenon: Shifting Trust and the Rise of Emotion-Driven Politics.â (In Japanese)
I also created a narrated slide video (in English) using NotebookLMâplease take a look at the video as well!
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The Unexpected Rise of SanseitÅ in the July 2025 Upper House Election
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In July 2025, the unexpected surge of SanseitÅ (the "Party of Do It Yourself Politics") in Japanâs House of Councillors election has drawn significant public attention. This phenomenon, which eluded major media coverage and conventional polling, is not simply a sudden outburst of populism. Rather, it is an extension of two political movements seen in 2024: the rise of Shinji Ishimaru in the Tokyo gubernatorial election and the re-election of Motohiko SaitÅ in the HyÅgo gubernatorial raceâcollectively referred to as the âIshimaru phenomenonâ and âSaitÅ phenomenon.â
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What these cases share is a deep-rooted mistrust of conventional party politics and the mainstream media, combined with the formation of a new âemotional public sphereâ that appeals to moral psychology deeply rooted in human evolution. My analysis seeks to illuminate the psychosocial structures driving these movements. Where does the fervor seen on social media come from? Why has the perception of âthe media = vested interestsâ become so widespread? And what common psychological tendencies are shared by their supporters? This article draws on social survey data and findings in moral psychology to offer a nuanced answer to these questions.
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A Shared Trait: Deep Distrust of Mainstream Media
While the supporter bases of Ishimaru and SaitÅ differ in socioeconomic profile and political orientationâIshimaru is most strongly supported by men in their 20s to 40s, while SaitÅ's support is more evenly distributed across age and genderâthere is one striking commonality: strong criticism toward the idea that âthe media represent entrenched powers.â
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In analyzing the political events of 2024, I sought to measure this widespread sentimentâwhat I call "criticism of the media as vested interests"âusing the following six survey items:
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- Political reform requires dismantling entrenched interest groups.
- Japan's stagnation is the fault of vested interests.
- The mass media are biased and cannot be trusted.
- The mass media rest on their privileged status.
- The truth exists on the internet, not in the media.
- Many people accept media narratives without question.
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At first glance, these six items seem to cover distinct themes: items â and â¡ reflect political dissatisfaction in general, ⢠and ⣠are direct criticisms of the media, ⤠reflects belief in the internet as an alternative truth source, and ⥠points to a lack of media literacy among the general public.
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However, statistical analysis revealed something striking: these six items functioned together as a unified psychological construct. In other words, there appears to be a widely held, intuitive worldview along the following lines:
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 âThe media represent entrenched interests and do not convey the truth. The real truth exists online, and those who believe what the media say are being deceived.â
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I termed this psychological pattern the **Criticism of Mass Media and Vested Interests Score (CMVIS)**, and positioned it as a significant indicator of information distrust and political dissatisfaction in contemporary Japan. In fact, CMVIS scores averaged 4.35 among Ishimaru supporters and 4.49 among SaitÅ supporters (on a 6-point scale, with 3.5 as the neutral midpoint)âremarkably high levels. This suggests that profound distrust in the mediaâs truthfulness lies at the heart of their support.
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Do They Trust Social Media Instead?
Whatâs particularly intriguing is that those who distrust mainstream media do not necessarily place full faith in newer media platforms such as social media or video sites. In fact, the average trust score for social media and video content was only 2.86 on a 6-point scaleâwell below the neutral point of 3.5.
When respondents were also asked about their trust in mass media and social media as sources of political information (again using the 6-point scale with 3.5 as neutral), the results showed a nuanced picture. Among Ishimaru supporters, trust in mass media scored 3.42, slightly higher than trust in social media at 3.03. For SaitÅ supporters, trust in mass media was 3.12 and social media 3.09âvirtually the same.
In short, while distrust in television and newspapers has grown, it is not counterbalanced by a wholehearted embrace of the internet. Instead, what seems to be spreading is a broader, more generalized mistrust of all sources of information.
This widespread skepticism reflects not merely a transformation in the information environment, but a deeper psychosocial reality: a sense that âthere is no longer anything left to trust.â What emerges here is not a simple binary conflict between mainstream media and social media, but an entirely new âcrisis of trust.â
Contempt for Others and the Sentiment of âNon-Minority Politicsâ
Another noteworthy point is the strong correlation between media distrust and psychological tendencies I term âcontempt for othersâ and ânon-minority politics.â
âContempt for othersâ refers to attitudes like âthere are so many people acting superior despite knowing nothing.â This is often linked to low self-esteem and manifests as a form of virtual type competency (VTC)âa sense of inflated competence in virtual spaces or discursive contexts.
Meanwhile, ânon-minority politicsâ reflects the perception that social minorities are unjustly benefiting from their status. This belief often appears in online discourse through expressions such as âvictim privilegeâ or âthe victim business,â and is tied to a sense that minority groups leverage their identity to gain unfair advantages.
My analysis found that the higher one scores in these tendenciesâcontempt for others and non-minority politicsâthe higher their CMVIS score tends to be. Moreover, strong correlations were observed with two well-established psychological constructs:
- Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), particularly the value placed on respect for tradition and social order.
- Social Dominance Orientation (SDO), which measures endorsement of hierarchical relations between social groups.
The Moral Psychology Behind Contempt and Non-Minority Politics
Among these, SDO deserves special attention. As I explain in detail elsewhere, SDO refers to a worldview that sees human society as composed of inherently competitive groups. Those high in SDO believe that group-based inequality is natural and justifiedâthat dominant groups should rule over weaker ones.
Some may question whether this kind of prejudice or bias truly qualifies as moral psychology. However, I argue that it doesâespecially when seen through the lens of evolutionary psychology and evolutionary anthropology. From this perspective, moral behavior among modern humans is understood as a set of psychological mechanisms evolved to suppress selfish behavior (deception, exploitation, betrayal) and to promote altruism and cooperation within social groups.
Thus, individualistic moral values such as care and fairnessâexpressed as helping the weak, opposing harm, and condemning greed or double standardsâare certainly vital. But equally important are collectivist values: loyalty to one's in-group (e.g., punishing traitors and distrusting outsiders) and respect for traditional norms (e.g., moral outrage at rule-breakers).
Both MFTâs ârespect for traditionâ and SDO express these collectivist moral tendencies. For individuals drawn to slogans like âJapan First,â such moral intuitions resonate strongly and serve as powerful motivators.
In this light, distrust in mass media is not merely about rejecting one source of information in favor of another. Rather, it reflects a complex entanglement of moral values, social perspectives, and views of othersâa worldview in which people feel that âwe, the non-minority Japanese, are being overlooked and disregarded.â
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âRighteous Angerâ Born from Three Decades of Stagnation
Why, then, are these emotions surfacing now? The answer lies in the distortion of Japanese society over the past thirty yearsâa period of âgrowth without progress.â Economic stagnation, deepening inequality, and a future devoid of hope have left many people feeling disillusioned. In the age of social media, frustration about not being heard becomes especially visible and amplified. Those who perceive themselves as the unrewarded majority harbor strong counter-emotions toward the mass media and liberal politics, which they see as promoting false righteousness or hypocritical slogansâsuch as SDGs or LGBTQ rights.
These psychological energies are expressed through online outrage, public shaming, and political fervor. I explain this phenomenon using what I call the Truth-Default In-Group Hypothesis: evolution has shaped humans to assume that information shared within their in-group is true, while regarding information from outside groups with suspicion or rejection.
Itâs Not the Technology That ChangedâItâs Our Psychology and Society
This analysis challenges simplistic forms of technological determinism, such as claims that âthe internet changed everythingâ or that âSNS now determines electoral outcomes.â What really matters is the emotional climate, the structure of trust, and the transformation of moral psychology. Indeed, platforms like social media and video-sharing sites have created new spaces for public discourse. But what moves these spaces is not just informationâit is emotion.
And that emotion is driven by:
- Dissatisfaction with society,
- Contempt for others,
- A sense of being âoverlookedâ or left behind, and
- A longing for a pure, legitimate in-group to belong to.
Even behaviors rooted in a sense of justiceâlike online shaming and outrageâare not merely impulsive acts of emotion. They arise from a deeper, evolutionary pattern I call the Truth-Default In-Group Hypothesis: the psychological tendency to treat in-group information as true and to question or reject outside perspectives.
At the level of the nation, the media, and social movements, this dynamic constructs a powerful insideâoutside boundary, leading people increasingly toward an in-group first ideology.
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What Do the Ishimaru and SaitÅ Phenomenaâand SanseitÅâs RiseâTell Us?
The online popularity of Ishimaru and SaitÅ, and the electoral success of SanseitÅ mentioned at the beginning, point to a continued political dynamic: emotions such as drifting trust, frustration with others, and dissatisfaction with institutions are coalescing around candidates who articulate specific values and rhetorical styles.
SanseitÅ has gained support online as a party that âsays what others are afraid to sayâ on issues such as vaccines, education, and gender. Underlying this is the same emotional and psychological structure observed in the Ishimaru and SaitÅ phenomenaânamely, the belief that âestablishment parties donât speak honestlyâ and âthe media hides the real truth.â SanseitÅ has given a political voice and slogan to ânon-minority politics,â crystallized in its message of âJapan First.â
Their rise signals not just a shift in policy preferences or economic agendas, but a broader transformation in politics itselfâinto a space where emotion, affect, and collectivist moral psychology are legitimized and given centrality.
What Questions Should We Be Asking?
Itâs easy to dismiss these trends with the label âpopulism.â But my analysis suggests that we need to ask deeper questions:
- Why have these emotions and feelings become so widespread?
- Why has it become so difficult to find anythingâor anyoneâto trust?
As more people lose faith in the media and feel that institutions no longer serve them, we must seriously ask: How can we rebuild the foundations of democratic publicness and consensus-building?
This is not simply a matter of ensuring information accuracy or improving media literacy. At its core, itâs about peopleâs dignity and their need for recognition.
In a society that grows ever more complex and diverse, we must ask ourselves:
- Whose voices are we listening to?
- Which stories do we choose to amplify?
These are the questions we must now confrontâopenly, and without evasion.
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Sociology of Popularity/Celebrity, Audio-narrated slide video
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I'm interested in Google's Notebook LM's "Video Explanation" feature, and I've tried creating a "Video Explanation" for my previously uploaded article in Japanese, "Serebu (Star) ã» Ryukou no Shakai-gaku (Sociology of 'Celebrities (Stars)' and 'Trends'.) " As of August 4, 2025, it's only available in English, so it's in English, but I think it's very well done.
I believe that watching it together with my original article will deepen your understanding of the content, and I also feel that it could be used for studying sociology in English.
If you're interested in the "Video Explanation" feature, please take a look!
Sociology of Popularity/Celebrity, Audio-narrated slide video
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Below is the English translation of the original Japanese essay. Please take a look through it if you are interested.
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