Turkey’s carrier battlegroup takes shape

Turkey’s ambitious naval projects —an aircraft carrier, a destroyer and a submarine —signal a bold bid for naval power and geopolitical prestige.

This month, Naval News reported that the  Turkish Ministry of Defense announced the commencement of three significant naval projects: the MUGEM aircraft carrier, the TF-2000 destroyer and the MILDEN submarine.

Naval News mentions that the steel-cutting ceremonies for MUGEM and TF-2000 were held at the Istanbul Naval Shipyard, while the MILDEN ceremony took place at the Gölcük Naval Shipyard.

In terms of dimensions, Naval News states in a separate October 2024 report that the MUGEM carrier features an optimized hull form for superior seakeeping, stability and maneuverability, with a bow design that reduces fuel consumption by 1.5% and improves underwater noise propagation.

Naval News mentions that MUGEM will initially have three runways — two for takeoff and one for landing — without a catapult system. However, the report states that a modular ramp design will be used until a domestic catapult system is developed.

For its air wing, the report says the carrier can house up to 50 aircraft, including manned and unmanned systems, with space for 20 aircraft on the deck and 30 in the hangar.

In terms of armament, Naval News says the MUGEM will be armed with a 32-cell MIDLAS Vertical Launch System, four Gökdeniz Close-in Weapon Systems (CIWS) and six Aselsan 25-millimeter STOP Remote Weapon Systems.

Naval News says that the MUGEM carrier’s dimensions include a length of 285 meters, a beam of 72 meters, a draft of 10.1 meters, a displacement of 60,000 tons, a maximum speed of over 25 knots, a cruising speed of 14 knots and a range of 10,000 nautical miles at cruising speed.

Alongside the MUGEM carrier, Naval News mentions that the TF-2000 destroyer, part of the MILGEM program, will be equipped with a 96-cell vertical launch system and advanced radar systems. This warship may be intended to serve as an escort for the MUGEM carrier. Naval News says that the MILDEN submarine, developed by the Turkish Naval Research Center Command, will feature an Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, enhancing its stealth and operational endurance.

The report states that the projects are expected to enhance Turkey’s maritime defense capabilities significantly.

While Turkey initially envisioned having a light carrier with its TCG Anadolu landing helicopter dock (LHD), it was forced to covert the ship into a drone carrier in 2019 after being removed from the US F-35 program due to its controversial purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles (SAM) despite being a NATO member. The S-400 is incompatible with NATO defense architecture, and Turkey operating the S-400 SAM alongside F-35s could compromise the latter’s stealth features, allowing Russia to detect the aircraft better.

However, drone carriers may be a less-than-ideal solution for Turkey’s capability requirements and great power ambitions.

Fatih Yurtsever argues in an August 2021 article for Turkish Minute that the TCG Anadolu was built with 8-10 F-35Bs in mind, making that type the only viable aircraft for the ship. Yurtsever says that while Turkey is trying to compensate for the loss of F-35Bs by turning the TCG Anadolu into a drone carrier, it is unrealistic to expect that drones can effectively replace manned aircraft altogether.

He says drone carriers are a new and untested concept. He also points out that since drones don’t have air-to-air combat capability yet and have limited survivability against even rudimentary air defenses, they are confined to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations and small-scale strikes.

Further, Sinan Ciddi mentions in a September 2024 article for The National Interest (TNI) that Turkey has started talks with the US for reinstatement in the F-35 program. Ciddi says that from the US side, the S-400 issue remains the sole roadblock to Turkey’s reinstatement and that the US would not settle for anything less than the complete removal of the S-400 system from Turkey’s territory.

Determined to replace the F-35, Turkey, as Asia Times reported in February 2024, had test-flown its domestically built KAAN 4.5-generation fighter, which features 85% indigenous parts. However, the KAAN still uses two US-made General Electric F110-GE-129 turbofan engines and falls short of being a true 5th-generation fighter like the F-35.

Also, Turkey’s poor economic performance could result in cost overruns for KAAN production. While Turkey could spread out costs over several years of production, that could result in an obsolete product on delivery.

But even if the US reinstates Turkey into the F-35B program and gets KAAN production up to speed, the TCG Anadolu’s small air wing can present an offense-defense dilemma. Committing more aircraft to an attack may leave the carrier vulnerable, but withholding aircraft for fleet air defense can diminish attack power.

Yurtsever says that instead of pursuing untried and untested solutions such as drone carriers, Turkey should consider manned-unmanned teaming, wherein F-35Bs can control loyal wingman drones that serve as “missile trucks.” In that network-centric configuration, he mentions that the F-35B could launch the drone’s missiles against land or surface targets, effectively increasing the aircraft’s ammunition capacity while keeping it out of reach from enemy air defenses. 

Power projection and prestige factors appear to be significant factors in Turkey’s carrier program. Turkey’s current fleet of F-16s and F-4 fighter jets is insufficient for power projection over the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Seas. Also, Turkey is deeply involved in ongoing conflicts in Libya and Syria and is establishing an extra-regional presence, with military bases in Qatar and Somalia.

Having an aircraft carrier would give Turkey a floating airbase to cover areas beyond the reach of its land-based aircraft.

An aircraft carrier would also put Turkey into the elite club of countries operating such complex and expensive warships. The symbolism and prestige value attached to aircraft carriers aligns with Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s vision of neo-Ottomanism, which aims to cement Turkish influence over territories once under the Ottoman Empire. However, Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism faces significant challenges, such as increasing authoritarianism and political polarization in Turkey, economic woes, complicated relations with Europe and NATO, and costly military interventions abroad.