Biden’s arms dump won’t ease Taiwan’s Trump trepidation

China has strongly protested outgoing US President Joe Biden’s approval of as much as US$571.3 million worth of defense material and services for Taiwan, warning that America is “playing with fire” with its latest provision of military material and services to the self-ruling island.   

Separately, the US Defense Department announced that it approved $295 million worth of military sales to Taipei, weaponry amid rising regional tensions that many speculate could become the epicenter of global geopolitical tensions with the likely end of the Ukraine war under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The $571 million in military assistance tops up Biden’s authorization of $567 million for the same purposes in late September. In October, He approved $2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including the first-time delivery of an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement released on Sunday (December 22) urged the US to stop arming Taiwan and cease what it called “dangerous moves that undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

The latest US military package was announced after China’s largest maritime drills around Taiwan since 1996, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) deploying more than 90 warships to adjacent waters stretching from the East China Sea to the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea.

“Taiwan and the United States will continue to cooperate closely on security issues to maintain peace, stability and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait,” Taiwan’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Due to the sensitivity of the issue, Taipei declined to provide details on the “content” of the assistance “based on the tacit agreement between Taiwan and the United States.”

The stakes couldn’t be higher. A recently released report by the US Pentagon has warned that China has “amplified” its full-spectrum pressure on Taiwan over the past year, underscoring Beijing’s threat to “reunify” the island with the mainland.

War drums

Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping has reportedly instructed the PLA to be in a position to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027, if necessary.

That threat could grow in significance if Trump follows through on his promised 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, a move that would add pressure to China’s already wobbly economy and potentially the ruling Communist Party.  

If anything, China is determined to create a “world-class” military that can rival America’s by 2049. With an estimated annual defense budget of $450 billion, China is in a strong position to concentrate its increasingly robust military capabilities in its own backyard, i.e., the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Already in possession of the world’s largest navy, with as many as 395 battleforce ships to come on steam next year, China is also deploying  DF-27 anti-ship ballistic missiles that could significantly threaten America’s military presence in the Western Pacific, including the strategic outpost of Guam.  

Although Washington adheres to a “one China” policy, namely recognizing Beijing as the diplomatic representative of the so-called “Greater China”, it has the obligation to help prevent any forcible takeover of the self-ruling island nation under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

On multiple occasions, Biden has vowed to come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a conflict with China, even if the two sides no longer have a mutual defense pact.

There are, however, certain concerns that the incoming Trump administration will be less committed to Taiwan’s defense and may even entertain a potential grand bargain with China at the expense of Taiwan’s self-proclaimed sovereignty and regional partners’ security.

Key US allies Japan and the Philippines have accordingly doubled down on their own defense cooperation by ratifying a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), which would facilitate greater military interoperability and enhance a joint response to any major contingency in the region, including over Taiwan.

While hoping for continuity in America’s China policy, key regional players are hedging their bets ahead of a potentially disruptive second Trump presidency.

Far from a passive actor, Taiwan is preparing for all eventualities. After ratifying a record $20.2 billion defense budget in August, the self-ruling island nation is also ramping up its imports of advanced American weapons systems.

This month, Taiwan received the first batch of 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks, underscoring its preparation for a possible all-out of war, including attrition warfare, in the near future.

The new American-made tanks were transported to the Armor Training Command in Hsinchu County southwest of Taipei in mid-December. For next year, Taiwan is planning to allocate NTD70.6 billion ($2.2 billion) for the acquisition of new US-made platforms.

Atop Taiwan’s shopping list, according to a proposal submitted by Taiwan’s legislature, are 100 Harpoon land-based missile systems, 66 F-16V fighter jets, 29 HIMARS rocket systems and a total of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks.

“Taipei has signed contracts with the US for 21 procurement projects, totaling NT$716.6 billion, with final payments scheduled to be made in 2031,” Taiwan’s defense ministry said last month.

“Of this total, approximately NT$373.1 billion has already been paid, while NT$343.5 billion remains unpaid and will be disbursed according to the payment schedule,” the ministry added. Next year, Taiwan is allocating up to NT$70.6 billion on portable short-range air defense missiles and radar system upgrades.

Recognizing its power asymmetry with China, Taiwan has historically embraced a “porcupine strategy”, which would significantly raise the cost of any full-scale invasion by the Asian superpower. 

Thanks to Taiwan’s sophisticated industries, robust defense budget and acquisition of modern weapons systems from the West, some military experts have proposed a “honey badger” strategy, which relies on a more proactive and “smart” deployment of state-of-the-art platforms to foil any Chinese invasion.

A second Trump presidency, however, introduces new uncertainties to US support for that strategy. Trump has made it clear that he prefers allies to shoulder more of their own defense needs and pay more for US “protection.”

In fairness, Trump’s first term is fondly remembered in Taipei, a period that saw a historic phone call between then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Trump, a rapid expansion in high-level contacts and joint visits, and Taipei’s purchase of $18 billion worth of US weapons, $4 billion more than the combined two terms of the Obama administration.

Amid rising public discontent in America over massive financing of the Ukraine war, Trump is expected to adopt a more “isolationist” stance, especially since he will no longer be restrained by veteran and more multilateralist generals.

Throughout the year, Trump has adopted more brazenly transactional rhetoric on foreign policy and has even gone so far as to criticize Taiwan’s supposed underspending for its own defense. (Taiwan spends around 2.5% of annual GDP on defense.) Trump has dismissed any military intervention that could risk a war with China as “stupid.”

In an interview earlier this year, Trump said he would “never say” if America is committed to defending Taiwan and emphasized his “good relationship” with Chinese President Xi. “I never say because I have to negotiate things [with China], right?” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press host Kristen Welker.

Taiwan is reportedly wary of the influence of key Trump advisors such as billionaire Elon Musk, who has significant business interests in China and has described Taiwan as an “integral part of China”, parroting Beijing’s line. 

“I think most people are anxious…Because of Trump’s unpredictability, we don’t know if Taiwan will be safer or more dangerous under his second term,” Chen Ming-chi, a former senior advisor to Taiwan’s National Security Council, told the media.

Dealing with Trump

Likely to Trump’s liking, Taiwan is reportedly mulling a $15 billion weapons package in the coming years. But, according to a report by the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank, Taiwan has yet to receive $20.53 billion worth of military equipment from the US due to production and delivery delays. The Pentagon has already been stretched with massive arms transfers to Ukraine and Israel in the past year.

“Some new equipment faced integration issues, which requires system adjustments to meet customer demands,” said prominent Taiwanese defense expert Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, emphasizing difficulties in obtaining key US-made weapons such as Stinger missiles due to competing demands from conflicts elsewhere.

At the same time, US regional allies are also preparing for potential contingencies. Japan has agreed to reconstitute the US forces stationed in Japan into a broader joint force headquarters under the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Hawaii.

The Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) is also creating a Joint Operations Command to better coordinate with the consolidated INDOPACOM.

Japan is also enhancing interoperability with the Philippines amid growing worries among US allies about a possible Taiwan war. After years of negotiations, the Philippine Senate finally ratified a visiting forces agreement-style pact, which underscores growing strategic convergence between the two key US allies.

“Ratifying the agreement further affirms the strategic partnership between the two countries and their mutual goal to enhance contribution to regional and international peace, security and stability,” the Philippine Senate said in a statement.

For his part, Japan’s ambassador to Manila, Kazuya Endo, emphasized how the new pact will “facilitate the implementation of cooperative activities between the forces of the two countries, further promote security and defense cooperation, and firmly support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Neither side overtly mentioned Trump or Taiwan, but, as with other key US allies in the region, both are actively preparing for a new era of strategic uncertainty and hot great power competition closer to home than under Biden.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @RichHeydarian