Just weeks after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and Muhammad Yunus’ appointment as Bangladesh’s interim chief executive, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saw an opportunity to revive historically strained ties.
After a rare warm conversation between Islamabad and Dhaka, both leaders have met twice within the span of a few months, opening the way for a diplomatic reset with major implications for South Asia’s geopolitics.
Bangladesh has moved to abolish a special security desk at Dhaka airport specifically for scrutinizing Pakistani passengers, waived the requirement of physical inspection of consignments from Pakistan and welcomed the first direct cargo ship docking at Chittagong Port from Pakistan.
Those moves imply a significant warming trend. Pakistan and Bangladesh were once a unified nation but separated after a brutal war in 1971. Since then, Bangladesh has developed stronger ties with neighboring India, Pakistan’s longstanding rival.
Even though Pakistan formally recognized Bangladesh in 1974, the historic events surrounding the 1971 war and separation of East Pakistan have long haunted bilateral relations, with deep-seated political and historical narratives still sporadically sparking tensions.
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father, played a key role in the separation of Bangladesh, a legacy that added complexities to bilateral ties. That history arguably drove Sheikh Hasina closer to India.
Indeed, Hasina’s relations with Islamabad were notably strained. The execution of several leaders from the Jamaat-e-Islami Party on war crime charges for 1971-related events drew the ire of Pakistan, which viewed the trials as politically motivated. In 2016, both nations expelled diplomats, further souring ties.
When Sharif and Yunus met on the sidelines of the D-8 conference in Cairo, Egypt, on December 19, it marked their second meeting, following their first encounter at the sidelines of the UNGA in New York in September.
In Cairo, the two leaders expressed “satisfaction [with] the increasing frequency of high-level contacts,” Sharif’s office said in a statement.
He expressed Pakistan’s “keen desire to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in the areas of trade, people-to-people contacts and cultural exchanges.”
In particular, Sharif mentioned the opportunity for “new avenues of economic cooperation” and trade in chemicals, cement clinkers, surgical goods, leather goods and the IT sector.
However, reflecting past wounds, Yunus urged Sharif to “settle the issues of 1971 to help Dhaka move forward with its relationship,” the Bangladesh official news agency reported.
“The issues have kept coming again and again. Let’s settle those issues for us to move forward,” he told Sharif. It would be nice to resolve things “once and for all for the future generations,” Yunus said.
Dhaka had never previously demanded an apology from Islamabad for the “genocide” during its war of independence until Hasina assumed power in 1996.
In response, Pakistan only described the events as “regrettable” during former military dictator General Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Dhaka in July 2002.
Upon returning to Islamabad from Egypt, Sharif told his federal cabinet that his country was opening a new chapter of its relationship with Bangladesh after a “positive engagement” in Cairo.
He also announced plans to send a high-level delegation to Dhaka in February next year, a rare visit that could redefine the dynamics of South Asian alliances.
Regional reset
As Islamabad and Dhaka draw closer, India seems to be the biggest geopolitical loser from Hasina’s fall, with once-friendly relations taking a significant dive in recent months.
Throughout her tenure, Hasina maintained a multifaceted relationship with India. Crucially, that included a rail connectivity agreement to enable India to utilize Bangladesh’s rail network for transporting goods to its remote northeastern states.
Additionally, Bangladesh approved India’s request to send experts to assess the Teesta River Project, a key bilateral water-sharing initiative.
However, following her ouster amid violent protests, Hasina fled to New Delhi to seek refuge. Bangladesh has since formally requested India’s assistance in extraditing Hasina to face legal proceedings.
India has acknowledged the request but has not provided further details, emphasizing that Hasina is in India for safety reasons.
When protests began against Hasina, she was in China, which has deep and wide ties to Dhaka’s defense establishment, having supplied 72% of Bangladesh’s military equipment.
The modernization of Bangladesh’s military under the “Forces Goal 2030” has the potential to boost Chinese arms imports further.
While Hasina sought to strengthen ties with China, she was careful not to alienate India, striving to maintain a strategic balance between the two geopolitical rivals.
However, unlike its relations with India, Bangladesh’s ties with China appear unchanged in the transition from Hasina to Yunus. Beijing was quick to welcome Yunus as interim head.
In September, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Yunus on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. That same month, Beijing’s ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen also called on Yunus.
“No matter what changes have taken place in the domestic situation of Bangladesh, China’s commitment to develop China-Bangladesh relations remains unchanged,” Yao said.
During their meeting, Yunus and Sharif also discussed reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a multilateral forum that has not held a summit since 2014.
The last summit took place in Nepal, while the planned 2016 summit in Pakistan was canceled after India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan chose not to participate under Delhi’s influence.
“I am a big fan of the idea of SAARC. I keep harping on the issue. I want a summit of SAARC leaders even if it is only for a photo session because that will carry a strong message,” Yunus said.