By 2030, 82% of new vehicles sold will be electric vehicles
Smart, Low-carbon Transport Opens up the Mobile Third Space
In 2030, new energy, autonomous driving, and vehicle-road-cloud synergy will enter the fast lane, making vehicles into a mobile third space outside our homes and workplaces.
Predictions
By 2030, 82% of new vehicles sold will be electric vehicles
By 2030, the whole-vehicle computing power will exceed 5,000 TOPS
Directions for Exploration
Electric vehicles for green transport
Snapshot from the future: New energy for green mobility
Some countries have made significant progress in adding electric vehicles (EVs), such as buses and taxis, to their urban public transportation systems. For example, by 2017, all of Shenzhen's 16,000 buses were electric. This made Shenzhen the world's first city with an entirely electric bus fleet. In Europe, EVs make up over 78% of Denmark's new buses, and about two-thirds of new buses in Luxembourg and the Netherlands are zero-emission.
There are two reasons behind these rapid advancements in public transportation. First, public transportation vehicles are replaced relatively frequently, which provides the opportunity to plan and implement the deployment and adoption of new energy vehicles. Government subsidies and efficient O&M solutions can also reduce the operating costs of electric fleets to levels close to or even lower than those of conventional vehicles, and this reduces the barriers to introducing new energy vehicles.
Second, these publicly-owned vehicles are centrally stored and maintained in specialized facilities that can easily be upgraded into multi-functional spaces with charging piles for EVs. Therefore, lack of charging facilities is not a major obstacle for the electrification of public transportation.
Public transportation vehicles also travel longer distances every day and generate more carbon emissions than private vehicles. Therefore, the wide adoption of electric public buses and taxis is an effective and efficient way to reduce vehicle emissions.
Snapshot from the future: New energy aircraft trials
The aviation industry accounted for about 2% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2022. If such emissions are not effectively curtailed, this percentage is expected to increase to 25% by the middle of this century.
At present, three main types of new energy aircraft are being developed: hybrid-electric, pure electric, and hydrogen-powered. In addition to increasing energy efficiency and reducing pollution and noise, new energy aircraft also present an opportunity to trial new designs, such as the blended wing body design. This design can significantly reduce aircraft's drag and energy consumption and improve their flight performance. In addition, this design can increase the amount of space in the cabin, which is a very valuable upgrade, as it increases aircraft's carrying capacity.
Autonomy opens up the mobile third space
Snapshot from the future: Autonomous driving and vehicle-road-cloud synergy in the fast lane
Low- and medium-speed public roads: Self-driving vehicles have delivered positive results in fields such as logistics and distribution, cleaning and disinfection, and patrolling.
High-speed semi-closed roads: Heavy trucks are expensive, so the price of sensors is not a limiting factor. Sensors such as lidar can be installed in these trucks for better sensing of their environment. Heavy trucks are mainly used in high-speed cargo transportation, ports, and logistics parks, which means the driving environment is less complex and routes are generally fixed. Heavy trucks are rarely seen on complex urban roads. This means that the driving environment that autonomous driving systems have to handle is not particularly complex. Truck drivers are expensive, and they frequently breach rules by overloading their vehicles and working overtime. Autonomous driving of heavy trucks would quickly help industries cut costs and work more efficiently, making this a compelling business case. According to a Deloitte report on smart logistics in China, technologies like unmanned trucks and artificial intelligence will mature in a decade or so, and will be widely used in warehousing, transportation, distribution, and last mile delivery.
Special non-public roads: Autonomous driving is playing an increasingly important role in environments like mines and ports. Some companies are working with ports to test self-driving container trucks. We have already seen unmanned trucks working in multiple fleets and even during night shifts at mines. Since 2023, 92 intelligent guided vehicles have been operating autonomously at the Second Container Terminal of Tianjin Port in China. This was made possible thanks to 5G, the Beidou navigation system, and automatic driving technologies. We are expected to see autonomous horizontal transportation at 30% of terminals by 2030.
Public roads: Autonomous driving technologies can make driving safer for the general public and help local authorities manage roads more efficiently. For example, they can quickly detect traffic incidents and access the relevant information, issue warnings about secondary accidents, select better routes to avoid traffic jams, send traffic alerts to vulnerable road users, and provide information about construction sites and other areas with temporary traffic controls. Autonomous driving can significantly reduce the number of traffic accidents.
Snapshot from the future: Urban air mobility
The research and development of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft has attracted investment from innovative companies around the world, and their performance has seen solid improvements. Currently, the five-seat aircraft which are being manufactured by several companies have a cruising range of about 250 kilometers. Some companies are working on eVTOL aircraft with seven seats or more. Some are exploring hydrogen-fueled aerial vehicles for longer ranges (more than 600 kilometers). These new aircraft may be used in various scenarios, including emergency medical services, urban air mobility, regional air mobility, air freight transportation, and personal aircraft.
Sharing vehicles for faster, low-carbon transportation
Snapshot from the future: Mobility as a Service available on demand
According to the International Road Transport Union, Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is to put the user at the core of transport services, offering them tailor-made mobility solutions based on their individual needs. MaaS is the integration of various modes of transport into a single mobility service accessible on demand. It combines all possible modes of transport, enabling users to access services through a single application and single purchase.
A key objective of MaaS is to provide integrated and convenient public transport services and develop green transport. MaaS systems aim to integrate local transport (e.g., buses, rail, shared cars, and shared bikes) and intercity transport (e.g., planes, high-speed rail, and long-distance coaches) and provide useful local information about dining, accommodation, shopping, and local tourist attractions. These systems will build on the intelligent scheduling functions of public transport systems, and identify passenger travel models while prioritizing green transport. With online payment functions integrated, MaaS systems can offer travel booking, one-tap itinerary planning, seamless connections between different modes of transport, and one-tap payments. MaaS will improve satisfaction with transport services while also providing green transport options.
Many EU cities are building MaaS showcase projects. Different cities have different levels of integration in terms of facilities, fares, payments, information, communications, management systems, and transport services. Gothenburg, Hanover, Vienna, and Helsinki were the first cities to explore MaaS. These cities have made full use of digital technologies to optimize their transport systems, including buses, shared cars, bicycles, and urban deliveries. This will help them incubate emerging transport service providers and drive urban decarbonization.
MaaS can bring tangible benefits: Individuals can cut their transport costs while enjoying better safety and a better experience. Governments can optimize their investment in transport infrastructure for more sustainable urban management and higher citizen satisfaction. In addition, MaaS will create more opportunities for transport service providers, as they can cut service costs and expand their services. When MaaS is widely deployed, we will see integrated scheduling of transport resources, better shared resources, a user-centric experience, and low-carbon transport.
Connected vehicles for safer, faster, and larger-scale autonomous driving
Snapshot from the future: Safer, more efficient dispatch services
Over the past decade, pioneers have begun exploring the use of elevated rails to transport containers in busy ports. Containers are sent to rails similar to cable railways. The railway system dispatches the containers based on their destination and sends them to railway stations, truck warehouses, or even waterless ports in inland cities. This makes container transportation much faster at a very low cost. In the future, we will see a comprehensive transportation system that supports the coordinated scheduling of different modes of transport. This system will ensure smooth traffic, speed up the distribution of goods, and drive the development of port-related industries. When this system is up and running, transport facilities will be fully connected and different modes of transport will work together seamlessly, which will help boost logistics efficiency, form industry clusters, and drive urban development. In other words, ports, industries, and cities will work more closely than ever for shared success.
Snapshot from the future: Broadband in the air, just as at home
Moving forward, broadband coverage will extend beyond the ground into the air and beyond. Broadband connections will be available to devices at various heights, such as drones less than 1 kilometer above the ground, aerial vehicles 10 kilometers above the ground, and low-orbit spacecraft hundreds of kilometers above the ground. The integrated network will consist of small cells covering hotspots within a radius of 100 meters, macro cells with a radius of 1 to 10 kilometers, and low-orbit satellites with coverage over a radius of 300 to 400 kilometers, providing users with unbroken access to broadband of up to 10 Gbit/s, 1 Gbit/s, and 100 Mbit/s, respectively.
More Outlooks
