United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2024 →
U.S. Senate, Arizona
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 4, 2022
Primary: August 2, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Arizona elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) in the general election for one of Arizona's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022.

Kelly won a November 2020 special election following the death of U.S. Sen. John McCain (R). Before joining Congress, Kelly served as a U.S. Navy pilot and a NASA astronaut. Kelly and his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), founded Americans for Responsible Solutions (known at the time of the 2022 election as Giffords) in 2013. Kelly said he was "focused on representing Arizonans – all Arizonans – and I’ll keep working with Republicans and Democrats to support hardworking families and get our economy back on track."[1] Kelly's campaign website highlighted affordable health care, providing competitive educational opportunities, increasing wages to cover the cost of living, and funding federal benefits like Social Security and Medicare as policy goals in Washington.[2] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Kelly cumulatively raised $81.8 million and spent $75.9 million.

Masters, a venture capitalist, became president of the Thiel Foundation in 2015 and served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022. Masters' campaign website said he ran "because the same old establishment politicians and the same old establishment candidates have failed us. [Masters] brings a wealth of experience to the table on how to defeat not just the progressive Democrats, but also the weak and compromised RINO Republicans." Masters' campaign website listed public safety as his top priority. He wrote, "I am so sick of this crime and chaos. It’s time to turn this ship around. We need to get control of our border. We need to punish criminals severely. And we need to project strength and competence abroad."[3] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Masters cumulatively raised $12.3 million and spent $9.7 million.

The previous two Senate elections—held in 2018 and 2020—were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a special election 51.2% to 48.8%.[4] In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally 50.0% to 47.6%.

The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close. Joe Biden (D) won the state of Arizona by 0.3 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 3.6 percentage points.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2022. Democrats retained their majority and gained one net seat, with the Senate's post-election partisan balance at 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.

Thirty-five of 100 seats were up for election, including one special election.[5] At the time of the election, Democrats had an effective majority, with the chamber split 50-50 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) having the tie-breaking vote.[6] Of the seats up for election in 2022, Democrats held 14 and Republicans held 21.

Marc Victor (L) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly (D)
 
51.4
 
1,322,027
Image of Blake Masters
Blake Masters (R)
 
46.5
 
1,196,308
Image of Marc Victor
Marc Victor (L) (Unofficially withdrew) Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
53,762
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Lester Ralph Maul Jr. (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
95
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Christopher Bullock (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
27
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Ty McLean Jr. (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
21
Image of Roxanne Rodriguez
Roxanne Rodriguez (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
20
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sherrise Bordes (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
17
Image of William Taylor
William Taylor (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
8
Image of Todd Smeltzer
Todd Smeltzer (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
6
Image of Edward Davida
Edward Davida (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
3

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 2,572,294
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Incumbent Mark Kelly advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly
 
100.0
 
589,400

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 589,400
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Blake Masters
Blake Masters
 
40.2
 
327,198
Image of Jim Lamon
Jim Lamon
 
28.1
 
228,467
Image of Mark Brnovich
Mark Brnovich
 
17.7
 
144,092
Image of Michael McGuire
Michael McGuire Candidate Connection
 
8.7
 
71,100
Image of Justin Olson
Justin Olson
 
5.2
 
41,985
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
David Bozic (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
138
Image of Frank Bertone
Frank Bertone (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
88

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 813,068
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Marc Victor advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marc Victor
Marc Victor Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
3,065

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 3,065
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Results analysis

Echelon Insights, a polling and data analysis firm, published an analysis deck called Split Ticket Atlas: Comparative Republican Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Senate Candidate Performance, 2020-2022 in March 2023. The report compared the performance of Republican candidates in 2022 statewide elections. Click here to view the full analysis.

This analysis found that, compared to 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R), Masters received 108,395 fewer votes. The largest differences were in Maricopa (61,271) and Pima (18,433) counties. Masters came closest to Lake's vote total in Greenlee County (188 votes).

Know of additional analysis related to this election? Please email us.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Arizona

Election information in Arizona: Nov. 8, 2022, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: Oct. 11, 2022
  • By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 11, 2022
  • Online: Oct. 11, 2022

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Oct. 28, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Oct. 28, 2022
  • Online: Oct. 28, 2022

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 8, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 8, 2022

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 12, 2022 to Nov. 4, 2022

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

6 a.m. to 7 p.m.


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Mark Kelly

Image of Mark Kelly

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

U.S. Senate (Assumed office: 2020)

Biography:  Kelly served as a pilot in the U.S. Navy and worked as an astronaut with NASA, completing four missions to the International Space Station. In 2013, he co-founded the advocacy group Americans for Responsible Solutions (now known as Giffords) with his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D).


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Kelly said he had been ranked one of the most bipartisan senators in Congress and was "focused on representing Arizonans – all Arizonans – and I’ll keep working with Republicans and Democrats to support hardworking families and get our economy back on track."

Kelly's website highlighted economic issues: "Mark has called on the Biden Administration to take action to lower costs. His plan to lower prescription drug costs was recently signed into law. He’s also introduced legislation to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax, supported increasing domestic oil production, and has pushed corporations to stop price gouging."

Kelly said his experience as an astronaut shaped how he approached problems. "When you’re orbiting the Earth at 25 times the speed of sound and bad stuff starts to happen, you have to work the problem as a team, and you can’t dismiss ideas based on the politics of the person offering them," he said.

Show sources

Sources: Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Mark Kelly for Senate Launches 'Republicans for Kelly,'" July 15, 2022 ; Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "The Mission," accessed August 9, 2022; Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "About Mark," accessed August 9, 2022

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Blake Masters

Image of Blake Masters

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Masters received a bachelor's degree in political science from Stanford University in 2008 and a J.D. from Stanford University Law School in 2012. In 2012, Masters co-founded Judicata, a software startup focused on legal research. In 2014, Masters joined Thiel Capital, and in 2015, he was named president of the Thiel Foundation.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Masters said he would fight to make Arizona safer. "As a father of three young children, I am so sick of this crime and chaos. It’s time to turn this ship around. We need to get control of our border. We need to punish criminals severely. And we need to project strength and competence abroad."

On immigration, Masters said he wanted to: "Finish the Wall, Triple the size of Border Patrol, Increase hi-tech surveillance at the border, Mandate E-Verify nationwide, Hire lots more USCIS agents and Magistrate judges to process deportions, and Always oppose amnesty for illegal aliens, period."

Masters said, "The 1st Amendment is under attack because Democrats don’t believe in free speech anymore. They threaten, intimidate, and cancel anyone they don’t like. And they have powerful allies in Big Tech and the corporate media, who do the Left’s bidding by censoring conservatives and hiding truths that don’t fit their narrative."

Show sources

Sources: Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, "The Masters Plan," accessed June 23, 2022; Linkedin, "Blake Masters," accessed June 23, 2022; AAE Speakers, "Blake Masters," accessed June 23, 2022; Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, "About," accessed June 23, 2022

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Marc Victor

Image of Marc Victor

Website

Party: Libertarian Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Hello, my name is Marc J. Victor, and I will be running for US Senate in Arizona in the 2022 election cycle. I’m running simply as a “live and let live guy.” Although, I’ll be officially listed on the ballot as a Libertarian if enough Arizona registered voters sign a petition. As a candidate, I’ll be discussing and promoting the new Live and Let Live Global Peace Movement. See, LiveandLetLive.org for more information. I previously ran as a Libertarian for US Senate in 2012 against Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona, in which I received 102,109 votes. I'm running because we need real change based on the right principle."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

If we want to achieve freedom, peace, and prosperity, we need a totally new approach to politics. That new approach can be summed up by the phrase, "Live and Let Live." As a Senator from Arizona, I'll do everything in my power to align the laws to be in accordance with the legal principle described at www.LiveandLetLive.org

Instead of each of us attempting to impose our personal moral views on others through the law, we should instead work to remove even our own moral views from the law such that the law prohibits all forms of aggression only.

We should work to encourage people to simply be good humans. I will work to promote the moral principle found at www.LiveandLetLive.org

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

If we want to achieve freedom, peace, and prosperity, we need a totally new approach to politics. That new approach can be summed up by the phrase, "Live and Let Live." As a Senator from Arizona, I'll do everything in my power to align the laws to be in accordance with the legal principle described at www.LiveandLetLive.org

Instead of each of us attempting to impose our personal moral views on others through the law, we should instead work to remove even our own moral views from the law such that the law prohibits all forms of aggression only.

We should work to encourage people to simply be good humans. I will work to promote the moral principle found at www.LiveandLetLive.org
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

We need to get our economy back on track. A free market is the best way to raise standards of living. The government's job is to protect our rights, and not to do charitable work or to take care of people from cradle to grave. The United States rose to become a superpower precisely because we have historically enjoyed more freedom, including a free market in goods and services, relative to most other countries. We need to focus on what actually made the United States great. We should inspire people to act with kindness towards others and not force it through the law. The government cannot fix our problems. We, as citizens, must act to restore what we have lost. We must be better parents, neighbors, and citizens.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I have many heroes. I was very lucky to have a great mom who set the example I'm still trying my best to follow. My law professor Butler Shaffer influenced my thinking more than anyone else. He got me to understand the principles of freedom and why they always raise standards of living. I left his class opposed to all forms of aggression and committed to advocating for a free and peaceful world. I'm also a big Captain Kirk fan. I love how this fictional character balances the tension between rational thought and emotion. He was also committed to excellence while realizing his own flaws. Finally, I admire Dr. Martin Luther King's vision of people being judged by the content of their character rather than the content of their skin.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I'm currently writing my own book.

I recommend The Rational optimist by Matt Ridley and Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker.

I also love The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

These are the same principles important for all people, elected or not.

A commitment to the right principles and the integrity to remain committed to those principles. The principles I'm firmly committed to are found at www.LiveandLetLive.org I'm also a big fan and totally committed to the principles detailed in Steven Covey's book, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.

I'm firmly committed to the principles necessary to achieve and maintain freedom and peace.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I'm a leader who is absolutely committed to working towards the specific principles described at www.LiveandLetLive.org

While I am always open to being persuaded by a good argument, I cannot be bullied.

I'm totally committed to freedom and peace for all people regardless of their personal views.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

The job of government is to secure our rights to both define and to pursue our happiness. We must promote a free and peaceful society so we can raise standards of living for all people. Government is also charged with protecting us against those who would aggress.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I'd like to move the world closer to freedom and peace.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

My first job was washing dishes at the International House of Pancakes. I worked the "bar rush" shift every weekend and earned $3.35/hr. I was soon promoted to cook. I worked as a short order cook for many years until I started working as a lawyer. Nobody makes better eggs for breakfast!
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I love the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey. For the last several years, I've closed my law firm for a full day and discussed this book all day. I believe the principles promoted in this book work and will lead to a happier and more productive life.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

Captain James T. Kirk
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

Thunderstruck by AC/DC
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I'm totally committed to excellence. Accepting that I'm simply an imperfect human who sometimes acts imperfectly has been a struggle for me.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

We need to get our financial house under control before we have a financial crash. We should be talking about cutting spending immediately. We need to remove our ethical views from the law. Charity should be a private voluntary matter and not imposed via the law. We also have many existential threats to resolve in the near future including nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, and synthetic biology. Nothing is more urgent than winning more hearts and minds for the live and let live philosophy.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

In a democracy, the majority of people get what they deserve. There is no need for effective politicians working for the right goals to be forced to leave office. However, ineffective politicians or ones working towards the wrong goals should be voted out of office immediately. We need to win more hearts and minds of the people who vote if we are to obtain better politicians. Imposed term limits is not the solution to our problems.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

There are many powers held only by the United States Senate. I have always admired the founders view that the Senate should be the more dignified body and less susceptible to the popular influences of the day. Also, given that we only allow two senators per state, this is a much smaller body and the influence of one person is therefore magnified. Also, the senate has the critically important job to confirm appointments for the United States Supreme Court.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

It doesn't matter to me. I'm most interested in the principles upon which a person acts. As we have seen, mere tenure in politics does not guarantee either a more effective politician or one acting to do the right things. That said, leadership qualities, whether in politics or outside politics, are very important qualities. My service in the United States Marine Corps as well as my leadership in running and growing my law firm have well prepared me for this job.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I'm not for gamesmanship. We should honestly and fairly debate issues.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

I will always do everything in my power to implement the Live and Let Live philosophy. As such, I will always support qualified people working for the right pro-Live and Let Live goals. I will always oppose people who work for the wrong goals.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

Judicial

Armed Services

Foreign Relations
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

No. While I admire many people, I chart my own course.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

Knowledge of the Constitution and judicial philosophy.

I'd want to see a consistent history of principled based decision-making.

The highest integrity too.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

As with all my relationships in life, they must be built on high levels of trust. I will always lead with integrity and based on principle.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MarcVictor.jpg

Marc Victor (L)

Yes. While I would like all things my own way, I recognize this is not possible. While I would seek to convince others to adopt my position and always remain open-minded to be persuaded to adopt theirs, if we can move things in the right direction, I'll take more freedom instead of less freedom.


Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Mark Kelly

October 22, 2022
October 15, 2022
August 3, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Blake Masters

November 3, 2022
October 18, 2022
October 18, 2022

Ballotpedia has not yet come across embeddable ads for Blake Masters. View more ads here:


Satellite ads

This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.

American Bankers Association and Arizona Bankers Association

The American Bankers Association and the Arizona Bankers Association jointly released an ad supporting Kelly on October 11, 2022.[42] That ad is embedded below.

October 11, 2022
Club for Growth

On September 15, 2022, Club for Growth launched its first ad in this race. A selection of their ads are embedded below:

October 26, 2022
October 6, 2022
September 15, 2022
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

On August 15, 2022, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched its first ad in this race.[60] A selection of their ads in this race are included below:

September 11, 2022
August 31, 2022
August 15, 2022
MAGA, Inc.

MAGA, Inc. published an ad opposing Kelly and gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs (D) on October 6, 2022.[44] That ad is embedded below.

October 6, 2022
National Republican Senatorial Committee

The National Republican Senatorial Committee published ads opposing Kelly. A selection of those ads are embedded below:

September 17, 2022
September 2, 2022
August 19, 2022
One Nation

One Nation published ads opposing Kelly. Those ads are embedded below:

August 30, 2022
August 16, 2022
Our American Century

Our American Century published an ad opposing Kelly on October 3.[63] Click here to view the ad on Twitter.

Restoration PAC

Restoration PAC launched an ad opposing Kelly on October 25. That ad is embedded below.

October 25, 2022
Saving Arizona

Saving Arizona, a group originally funded by Peter Thiel, launched its first ad for Masters on September 8. That ad is embedded below.[57]

September 8, 2022
Senate Majority PAC and VoteVets

Senate Majority PAC and VoteVets.org jointly published an ad opposing Masters on September 12.[55] That ad is embedded below.

September 12, 2022
Sentinel Action Fund

Sentinel Action Fund published an ad opposing Kelly on October 3.[64] Click here to view the ad on AdImpact.

The Lincoln Project

The Lincoln Project published an ad opposing Masters on October 12. That ad is embedded below.

October 12, 2022
Women Speak Out PAC

Women Speak Out PAC, an affiliate of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, published ads opposing Kelly.[51] Those ads are embedded below.

October 19, 2022
September 23, 2022

Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

October 6 debate

On October 6, 2022, Kelly, Masters, and Victor participated in a debate hosted by PBS Arizona.[65] A video of the debate is embedded below.

October 6, 2022

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[66] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[67] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022: General election polls
Poll Date Democratic Party Kelly Republican Party Masters Libertarian Party Victor Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[68] Sponsor[69]
Research Co. November 4-6, 2022 51% 47% 2% — ± 4.6 450 LV N/A
Data Orbital November 4-6, 2022 48% 47% 2% 3 ± 4.3 550 LV N/A
KAConsulting November 2-3, 2022 47% 46% — 7%[70] ± 4.4 501 LV Citizens United
InsiderAdvantage November 2, 2022 48% 48% 2% — ± 4.2 550 LV KSAZ-TV
Remington Research Group November 1-2, 2022 48% 47% 2% 3% ± 2.9 1,075 LV N/A


The chart below shows RealClearPolitics polling averages in this race over time.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[77]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[78][79][80]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterToss-upToss-upLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Noteworthy endorsements

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[81] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[82] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mark Kelly Democratic Party $92,771,344 $92,715,992 $1,457,875 As of December 31, 2022
Ty McLean Jr. Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Todd Smeltzer Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
William Taylor Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Frank Bertone Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Sherrise Bordes Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
David Bozic Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Mark Brnovich Republican Party $3,184,415 $3,179,169 $5,245 As of December 31, 2022
Christopher Bullock Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Edward Davida Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Jim Lamon Republican Party $19,564,450 $19,553,632 $10,818 As of December 31, 2022
Blake Masters Republican Party $15,659,649 $15,559,519 $100,130 As of December 31, 2022
Michael McGuire Republican Party $2,715,996 $2,714,376 $1,620 As of December 31, 2022
Justin Olson Republican Party $323,230 $297,090 $25,708 As of December 31, 2022
Roxanne Rodriguez Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Marc Victor Libertarian Party $138,786 $141,454 $-2,568 As of December 31, 2022
Lester Ralph Maul Jr. Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[83][84]

If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[85]

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election

Noteworthy spending

  • October 28, 2022: AdImpact reported that Club for Growth spent an additional $1 million in ads supporting Masters and Senate Majority PAC spent an additional $750,000 in ads supporting Kelly.[24]
  • October 26, 2022: AdImpact reported that Saving Arizona purchased $3.7 million in ads supporting Masters.[27]
  • October 25, 2022:
    • Club for Growth purchased $2.5 million in ads opposing Kelly.[29]
    • AdImpact reported that MAGA, Inc., a new super PAC supported by former President Donald Trump (R), spent an additional $1 million in ads for this race.[30]
  • October 18, 2022: AdImpact reported that MAGA, Inc., a new super PAC supported by former President Donald Trump (R), spent an additional $750,000 in ads for this race.[34]
  • October 14, 2022: Protect Freedom PAC, a group affiliated with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), reserved $700,000 in ads opposing Kelly.[37]
  • October 7, 2022: Medium Buying reported that MAGA, Inc., a new super PAC supported by former President Donald Trump (R), reserved $1.16 million in ads.[44] The group published an ad opposing Kelly and gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs (D).
  • September 28, 2022: Women Speak Out PAC, an affiliate of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, reported spending almost $1 million to run a television ad supporting Masters and opposing Kelly.[50] The ad was scheduled to run from September 26 through October 5 in the Phoenix area.[51]
  • September 20, 2022: Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund canceled $9.6 million in reserved television ads meant to support Masters.[54]
  • September 15, 2022: Saving Arizona purchased a $30,000 ad buy to air a 30-minute informercial supporting Masters.[86]
  • September 8, 2022: Saving Arizona, a group originally funded by Peter Thiel, launched a $1.5 million ad buy in the Phoenix market.[57]

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Arizona and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Arizona, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Arizona's 1st David Schweikert Ends.png Republican R+2
Arizona's 2nd Tom O'Halleran Electiondot.png Democratic R+6
Arizona's 3rd Ruben Gallego Electiondot.png Democratic D+24
Arizona's 4th Greg Stanton Electiondot.png Democratic D+2
Arizona's 5th Andy Biggs Ends.png Republican R+11
Arizona's 6th Open Electiondot.png Democratic R+3
Arizona's 7th Raul Grijalva Electiondot.png Democratic D+15
Arizona's 8th Debbie Lesko Ends.png Republican R+10
Arizona's 9th Paul Gosar Ends.png Republican R+16


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Arizona[87]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Arizona's 1st 50.1% 48.6%
Arizona's 2nd 45.3% 53.2%
Arizona's 3rd 74.5% 23.9%
Arizona's 4th 54.2% 43.9%
Arizona's 5th 41.0% 57.4%
Arizona's 6th 49.3% 49.2%
Arizona's 7th 65.6% 32.9%
Arizona's 8th 42.5% 56.1%
Arizona's 9th 36.4% 62.2%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 9 Democratic wins
  • 19 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R D R R R R R D

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.

U.S. Senate election results in Arizona
Race Winner Runner up
2020 51.2%Democratic Party 48.8%Republican Party
2018 50.0%Democratic Party 47.6%Republican Party
2016 53.7%Republican Party 40.8%Democratic Party
2012 49.2%Republican Party 46.1%Democratic Party
2010 59.2%Republican Party 34.7%Democratic Party
Average 52.7 43.6

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.

Gubernatorial election results in Arizona
Race Winner Runner up
2018 56.0%Republican Party 41.8%Democratic Party
2014 53.4%Democratic Party 41.6%Republican Party
2010 54.3%Republican Party 42.4%Democratic Party
2006 62.6%Democratic Party 35.4%Republican Party
2002 46.2%Democratic Party 45.2%Republican Party
Average 54.5 41.3

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 2 5 7
Republican 0 4 4
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 9 11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Arizona, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Doug Ducey
Secretary of State Democratic Party Katie Hobbs
Attorney General Republican Party Mark Brnovich

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Arizona State Legislature as of November 2022.

Arizona State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 14
     Republican Party 16
     Vacancies 0
Total 30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 29
     Republican Party 31
     Vacancies 0
Total 60

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Arizona was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019. 

   .placeholder {}
   .census-table-container {
       width: 100%;
       max-width: 500px;
       overflow-x: auto;
   }
   .census-table-widget {
       text-align: center;
       border: 1px solid black !important;
   }
   .census-table-header {
       background-color: #334aab;
       color: white;
       padding: 0.5em 1em;
   }
   .census-table-census-item-header {
       text-align: left !important;
       font-weight: normal !important;
       background-color: #D9D9D9;
       padding-left: 0.25em;
       padding-right: 0.25em;
   }
   .census-table-census-item {
       text-align: center !important;
       font-weight: normal !important;
   }
   .census-table-section-header {
       background-color: #f0a236;
       font-style: italic;
   }
   .census-table-source {
       font-size: 80%;
   }
   .census-table-race-disclaimer {
       font-size: 70%;
       border-top: 1px solid #ccc;
   }

Demographic Data for Arizona
Arizona United States
Population 6,392,017 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 113,652 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 77.2% 72.5%
Black/African American 4.5% 12.7%
Asian 3.3% 5.5%
Native American 4.5% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.2%
Two or more 3.7% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 31.3% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 87.1% 88%
College graduation rate 29.5% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $58,945 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 15.1% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


Election context

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Arizona in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Arizona U.S. Senate Ballot-qualified party 0.25% of qualified signers in the state N/A 4/4/2022 Source
Arizona U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 3% of total registered voters who are not members of a ballot-qualified political party N/A 4/4/2022 Source

Election history

2020

See also: United States Senate special election in Arizona, 2020

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)

General election

Special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly (D)
 
51.2
 
1,716,467
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally (R)
 
48.8
 
1,637,661
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Matthew Dorchester (L) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
379
Image of Nicholas Glenn
Nicholas Glenn (Independent Republican Party) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
152
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Debbie Simmons (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
98
Image of John Schiess
John Schiess (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
92
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Christopher Beckett (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
69
Image of Joshua Rodriguez
Joshua Rodriguez (Unity Party) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
69
Image of Mohammad Arif
Mohammad Arif (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
68
Image of Perry Kapadia
Perry Kapadia (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
58
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Mathew Haupt (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
37
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Patrick Thomas (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
29
Image of Edward Davida
Edward Davida (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
28
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Jim Stevens (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
23
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Buzz Stewart (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
22
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
William Decker (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
21
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Adam Chilton (D) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
19
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
17
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Frank Saenz (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
8

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 3,355,317
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Mark Kelly defeated Bo Garcia in the special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly
 
99.9
 
665,620
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Bo Garcia (Write-in)
 
0.1
 
451

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 666,071
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Incumbent Martha McSally defeated Daniel McCarthy and Sean Lyons in the special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally
 
75.2
 
551,119
Image of Daniel McCarthy
Daniel McCarthy Candidate Connection
 
24.8
 
181,511
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sean Lyons (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
210

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 732,840
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Barry Hess and Alan White ran as write-in candidates in the race. Hess received 329 votes and White received 101 votes. Libertarian write-in candidates were required to receive at least 3,335 votes to make the general election ballot.

2018

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018
See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Martha McSally and Angela Green in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kyrsten Sinema
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
 
50.0
 
1,191,100
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally (R)
 
47.6
 
1,135,200
Image of Angela Green
Angela Green (G)
 
2.4
 
57,442
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
566

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 2,384,308
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Deedra Abboud in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kyrsten Sinema
Kyrsten Sinema
 
79.3
 
404,170
Image of Deedra Abboud
Deedra Abboud
 
20.7
 
105,800

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 509,970
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Martha McSally defeated Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally
 
54.6
 
357,626
Image of Kelli Ward
Kelli Ward
 
27.6
 
180,926
Image of Joe Arpaio
Joe Arpaio
 
17.8
 
116,555

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 655,107
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

No Green candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 53.7% 1,359,267
     Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 1,031,245
     Green Gary Swing 5.5% 138,634
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 1,584
Total Votes 2,530,730
Source: Arizona Secretary of State
U.S. Senate, Arizona Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 51.2% 302,532
Kelli Ward 39.9% 235,988
Alex Meluskey 5.3% 31,159
Clair Van Steenwyk 3.6% 21,476
Total Votes 591,155
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 49.2% 1,104,457
     Democratic Richard Carmona 46.2% 1,036,542
     Libertarian Marc Victor 4.6% 102,109
     Independent Steven Watts (Write-in) 0% 290
     Independent Don Manspeaker (Write-in) 0% 24
Total Votes 2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
United States Senate Democratic Primary, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRichard Carmona 100% 289,881
Total Votes 289,881
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf
United States Senate Republican Primary, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 69.3% 357,360
     Republican Wil Cardon 21.3% 110,150
     Republican Clair Van Steenwyk 5.7% 29,159
     Republican Bryan Hackbarth 3.7% 19,174
     Republican John Lyon (write-in) 0% 126
     Republican Luis Acle (write-in) 0% 56
Total Votes 516,025
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf
United States Senate Libertarian Primary, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Libertarian Green check mark transparent.pngMarc Victor (write-in) 100% 591
Total Votes 591
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf

2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

Arizona 2022 primaries 2022 U.S. Congress elections
Seal of Arizona.png
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
CongressLogosmall.png
Arizona congressional delegation
Voting in Arizona
Arizona elections:
2022 • 2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018
Democratic primary battlegrounds
Republican primary battlegrounds
U.S. Senate Democratic primaries
U.S. Senate Republican primaries
U.S. House Democratic primaries
U.S. House Republican primaries
U.S. Congress elections
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
Ballot access

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Mark Kelly for Senate Launches 'Republicans for Kelly,'" July 15, 2022
  2. ↑ Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Why I'm Running," accessed August 9, 2022
  3. ↑ Blake Masters' 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed October 19, 2022
  4. ↑ McSally had been appointed to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and death of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
  5. ↑ The special Senate election in California was for the same seat up for regular election. There were, then, 36 total Senate elections for 35 total seats.
  6. ↑ Two independents who caucus with Democrats are included with Democrats in the 50-50 split count.
  7. ↑ The New York Times, "Mark Kelly Wins Arizona Senate Race, Putting Democrats a Seat From Control," November 11, 2022
  8. ↑ Data Orbital, "Final AZ General Election Polls: Republicans in a strong position going into Election Day 2022," November 7, 2022
  9. ↑ Research Co., "Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election," November 7, 2022
  10. ↑ KAConsulting, "Republicans surging in Arizona; Democrats stuck under 50%," November 4, 2022
  11. ↑ Marist Poll, "The 2022 Elections in Arizona," November 4, 2022
  12. ↑ Fox 10 Phoenix, "2022 Arizona Election Poll: Lake leads Hobbs in governor's race by 3 points, Senate race tied," November 3, 2022
  13. ↑ HighGround, "Unaffiliated Voters Will Decide Arizona’s Races for Senate & Governor," November 3, 2022
  14. ↑ Remington Research Group, "Arizona - General Election - November 2022," November 3, 2022
  15. ↑ Civiqs, "Election 2022: New Civiqs Polls in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona," November 2, 2022
  16. ↑ AZCentral, "Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate drops out, backs Republican Blake Masters," November 1, 2022
  17. ↑ Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Arizona races tighten as support for Republican candidates increases," November 1, 2022
  18. ↑ The Phillips Academy Poll, "Arizona decides: Kelly and Masters locked in tight battle, Kari Lake dominates Hobbs," November 1, 2022
  19. ↑ Univision, "Latino voters in Arizona could help Democrats keep control of Senate: Univision News poll," November 1, 2022
  20. ↑ NBC News, "Arizona Senate and governor races tighten ahead of Obama visit, GOP poll says," October 31, 2022
  21. ↑ The Hill, "Kelly tops Masters by 6 points in Arizona Senate race: poll ," October 31, 2022
  22. ↑ OH Predictive Insights, "OHPI Poll of Record: Close Races Up and Down the Ticket in Arizona," October 31, 2022
  23. ↑ Wick Insights, "AZ 2022 Poll October 30th," accessed October 31, 2022
  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 NBC News, "Midterm elections roundup: Democrats try to defy gravity," October 28, 2022
  25. ↑ Data for Progress, "AZ Midterm Tabs," accessed October 27, 2022
  26. ↑ FOX 10 Phoenix, "2022 Arizona Election Poll: Lake leads governor's race, Senate race tightens," October 26, 2022
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 Twitter, "Rob Pyers on October 26, 2022," accessed October 27, 2022
  28. ↑ Susquehanna Polling and Research, "Arizona Statewide Public Opinion Survey," accessed October 26, 2022
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 Twitter, "Rob Pyers on October 25, 2022," accessed October 27, 2022
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Twitter, "AdImpact Politics on October 25, 2022," accessed October 27, 2022
  31. ↑ co/efficient, "Arizona Statewide 2022 General Election," accessed October 24, 2022
  32. ↑ Wick Insights, "AZ Battleground Survey, October 2022," accessed October 25, 2022
  33. ↑ Arizona's Family, "Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey: Masters closing gap with Kelly in Senate race," October 18, 2022
  34. ↑ 34.0 34.1 Twitter, "AdImpact on October 18, 2022," accessed October 20, 2022
  35. ↑ Trafalgar Group, "Arizona October 2022 Poll," accessed October 19, 2022
  36. ↑ CNBC, "Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly outraises GOP opponent Blake Masters going into final weeks of midterm campaign," October 15, 2022
  37. ↑ 37.0 37.1 Twitter, "Rob Pyers on October 14, 2022," accessed October 17, 2022
  38. ↑ FOX 10 Phoenix, "2022 Election: Lake leads Arizona governor's race, Kelly remains ahead in Senate race in new poll," October 13, 2022
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 Twitter, "Rob Pyers on October 13, 2022," accessed October 17, 2022
  40. ↑ OH Predictive Insights, "U.S. Senate Race: Kelly holds the Lead Over Masters," October 12, 2022
  41. ↑ KWCH, "Former VP Mike Pence endorses Blake Masters," October 11, 2022
  42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 American Bankers Association, "ABA Joins Arizona Bankers Association in Releasing New Ad Encouraging Senator Mark Kelly to Keep Fighting for Workers and Businesses," October 11, 2022
  43. ↑ OnMessage, "October Poll," October 11, 2022
  44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 Twitter, "Medium Buying on October 7, 2022," accessed October 10, 2022
  45. ↑ CNN, "CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader," October 6, 2022
  46. ↑ CBS News, "Mark Kelly has edge in Arizona Senate race that hinges on abortion, economy, immigration — CBS News Battleground Tracker," October 5, 2022
  47. ↑ Fox News Poll, "Arizona," September 29, 2022
  48. ↑ MaristPoll, "The 2022 Elections in Arizona," September 28, 2022
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 Arizona Republic, "New Arizona Republic poll projects who’s ahead in Kelly-Masters Senate race," September 27, 2022
  50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 Federal Election Commission, "FILING FEC-1632657," accessed September 29, 2022
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 51.2 YouTube, "Arizona's Mark Kelly Supports Painful Late Abortions," September 23, 2022
  52. ↑ Twitter, "Jacob Rubashkin on September 23, 2022," September 23, 2022
  53. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "Arizona Senate Moves From Toss Up To Lean Democrat," September 22, 2022
  54. ↑ 54.0 54.1 Axios, "Scoop: McConnell-aligned super PAC pulls out of Arizona," September 20, 2022
  55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 55.2 NBC News, "Democrats launch new abortion ad in Arizona Senate race," September 13, 2022
  56. ↑ 56.0 56.1 Politico, "More Republican money flowing to Arizona’s Senate race," September 12, 2022
  57. ↑ 57.0 57.1 57.2 Politico, "Thiel-linked PAC resumes spending in Arizona Senate race — without Thiel," September 9, 2022
  58. ↑ Politico, "Senate GOP super PAC cancels ad buys in Arizona, Alaska," August 26, 2022
  59. ↑ Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Mark Kelly for Senate Announces Second Wave of Republicans for Kelly,'" August 22, 2022
  60. ↑ 60.0 60.1 ABC News, "In key Arizona race, Senate Dems try to highlight Blake Masters' abortion, Social Security comments," August 16, 2022
  61. ↑ The New York Times, "Senate G.O.P. Campaign Arm Slashes TV Ad Buys in Three States," August 15, 2022
  62. ↑ Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Mark Kelly for Senate Launches “Republicans for Kelly,'" July 15, 2022
  63. ↑ Twitter, "Jacob Rubashkin on October 3, 2022," accessed October 4, 2022
  64. ↑ Twitter, "Ben Kamisar on October 3, 2022," accessed October 4, 2022
  65. ↑ Arizona PBS, "Arizona PBS hosting general election debates," September 15, 2022
  66. ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  67. ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  68. ↑ 68.0 68.1 RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  69. ↑ 69.0 69.1 The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  70. ↑ Includes the responses of "Uncommitted" (6%) and "Other" (1%).
  71. ↑ Includes the responses of "Don't know" (6%) and "Someone else" (2%).
  72. ↑ Reported as "Someone else" (3%) and "Undecided" (1%).
  73. ↑ Reported as "Undecided" (3%) and "Someone else" (2%).
  74. ↑ Reported as "Neither" (3%) and "Other" (1%).
  75. ↑ Reported as "Undecided" (9%), "Other" (3%), and "Wouldn't Vote" (3%).
  76. ↑ Included the responses of "Undecided" (5%) and "Someone else" (4%).
  77. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  78. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  79. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  80. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  81. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  82. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  83. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  84. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  85. ↑ Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
  86. ↑ Twitter, "AdImpact Politics on September 15, 2022," accessed September 19, 2022
  87. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mark Kelly (D)
Kyrsten Sinema (I)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Independent (1)


v • e
2021-2022 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
v • e
Ballotpedia
About
Editorial Content
Geoff Pallay, Director of Editorial Content and Editor-in-Chief • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Frank Festa • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox • Mercedes Yanora
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2022&oldid=9160306"