Levels and projections in officially announced military spending are not a good guide even to what is actually happening now, let alone to what will happen in the future. Otherwise geopolitical predictions would be very easy.
Also, Khokhlostan is only sinking deeper into the shit, but I have grown weary of reiterating that.

Exactly. There is nothing to stop them from expanding military spending drastically if the oil prices go up.

Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from. Yes, the Ukraine will remain Bandera-occupied for the time being, but we can take solace in knowing it will never be successful 😉

As a loyal military man, basically competent but without being excessively intelligent – he graduated from a third-rate military academy – Dyumin would make a solid replacement for Putin, who would continue to wield extensive influence as some sort of “elder statesman� or “father of the nation� figure.

Meanwhile, in this scenario, Putin’s people would continue to occupy key power positions: Vyacheslav Volodin would continue looking after the Duma, Sergey Shoigu will stay on as Defense Minister, and another of Putin’s former bodyguards, Viktor Zolotov, will remain head of the 340,000 strong National Guard. This would be an additional guarantee against the successor getting too many ideas of his own.

Except if he’s smarter or more cunning than he lets on. Brezhnev or Sadat were thought to be lacking in own ideas and controlled by people appointed by their predecessors, but eventually managed to get rid of all of those people. OK, Brezhnev got that stroke just when he managed to get full power, but Sadat did a few interesting maneuvers.

Isn’t the problem with Dyumin that he has not much experience running a country or just a part of it?
He has been a governor of Tula for less than two years.

That is why this seems likely

he was asked a question about whether Putin would run in 2018. At the time, Zagorodnov gave this a 80% chance then. More recently, I asked him again, and he has now upped it to 90%, but he thinks that there is only a 50% chance of Putin finishing his second term.

Dyumin seems like a logical choice for a successor, but he needs more time.

Also, no military military confrontation planned =/= trying to restore relations with the West and making concessions for the sake of it.
After all, main weapons of the West are not the military.

Alexey Dyumin? Damn. I was rooting for Dmitry “tanks don’t need visas� Rogozin.

Why not Vladimir “Put a Russian baby in her!” Zhirinovsky?

I found it amusing, incidentally, that La Wik specifically updated his photo to put on an unflattering photo of him. He must be really getting on some liberal nerves.

There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

Maybe I’m biased, but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.

Are we seeing a “brain drain” in Ukraine? If they can’t keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.

The Ukraine has a lot of potential as Agricolony of EUrope.
Of course, for that you don’t need many people.

If Putin doesn’t run in 2018 he should be replaced with someone who is competent and experienced, not just some random person witch Putin can easily control. If Putin wants to have control he should run, otherwise he should limit himself to select good successor and enjoy in pension.
I don’t know russian political figures well, but Rogozin seems competent (and little funny).

At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range

Lynn estimated 97. The 92 figure comes from the same source that placed Romania at 82, which is very unrealistic. Is there a logical reason to suppose a number that is a lot lower than that of neighboring Slavic countries Russia, Belarus, and Poland? Ukrainians have some Balkan descent which would depress their score, and Russians some Finnic which might elevate their score, but it’s doubtful that the resultant difference would be dramatic. Ukrainians don’t have a reputation in neighboring countries of being dumb.

and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

No, it probably won’t be “successful� on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further

It’s too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms

It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

Also, about Ukraine’s economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country). This is gone. A lot of the drop in the national per capita GDP simply reflects this loss. That is, even if there were no trade disruptions or war, if you compared Ukraine per capita GDP PPP in 2013 vs. Ukraine 2016 per capita GDP PPP but excluded the coal and steel exporting areas when formulating the latter figure, you would get a large drop in per capita GDP for Ukraine. But this doesn’t mean the areas being measured in 2016 have actually gotten poorer.

Much of the decline actually reflects the fact that poorer regions are being measured and richer ones are excluded from the figures now – and not that those remaining Ukrainian regions have gotten a lot poorer. To be sure, there has been decline in the remaining Ukrainian regions too (war and trade disruption have had an effect) and overall Ukraine-outside-Donbas is poorer now than it was in 2013- but not as much as the drop in per capita figures suggests. Indeed, some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 – so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

Putin’s controversial “castling� maneuver with Medvedev

Yeah, whatever happened to that guy?

Except if he’s smarter or more cunning than he lets on.

In Japan, that is known as the Tokugawa Ieyasu strategy.

To quote Art Deco:

Employment in agriculture currently accounts for 15% of the Ukraine’s workforce and has not, since 1990, accounted for more than 21% at any time. As we speak, agriculture accounts for 14% of the value added in the economy; it stood at 25% in 1990 and has been around 9% for most of the last 25 years. Industry accounts for 26% (v. 44% in 1990). Services account now for 60% (v. 30% in 1990)

The current mix of agriculture, industry and services is similar to that of Argentina.

Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars), pharma is doing well, etc.

Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars)

Only heard of a couple of such plants. Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.

Looking forward to more coverage of independent Russian presidential candidate and glamour girl Ksenia Sobchak whom Anatoly Karlin mentions above … Ksenia seems a sweet religious girl the way she wears her Christian cross so close to her skin

Ksenia just turned age 36 a few days ago on 5 Nov. … definitely a star of the Russian election season, she is deservedly confident she will gather the 300,000 signatures needed to be on Russia’s ballot

I mention it a lot, but IT has a lot of jobs, is growing, and one can live much better on an IT salary in Ukraine than in many other places. Recent example:

Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson opens R & D office in Lviv.

https://www.dev-pro.net/blog/why-big-tech-names-have-opened-rd-facilities-in-ukraine/

Only heard of a couple of such plants

Some examples:

Leoni:

https://www.just-auto.com/news/leoni-opens-second-wiring-systems-plant-in-ukraine_id178896.aspx

(their largest plant is actually in Ukraine)

Kromberg and Schubert:

http://en.lawyers.ua/krombergschubert-increases-the-investments-in-its-plant-in-zhitomir.html

BASF:

https://www.theubj.com/news/view/germanys-basf-finds-growth-in-ukraines-regions

Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.

The number of light industrial plants is growing and expanding. Much of the migration is temporary – someone working in Poland or Germany for a few months, and returning home with money. Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

Ukraine’s median age is about the same as Poland’s, and slightly higher than Russia’s (which probably means lower than ethnic Russia’s). It is clearly lower than the EU average.

How important would an oil price hike even be for both the military budget and the overall federal budget, especially in the long-term? In rouble terms, of course. Let that meme slowly die…

Rising oil prices would probably strengthen the rouble more or less considerably, which would partially offset any gains (again, obviously in roubles). You should not look at Russia’s military budget in dollars, it’s totally irrelevant. The fact is that the oil prices didn’t affect the military budget massively to begin with. They’re not going to do so now.

However, I do agree (as I pointed out a few days ago) that the new spending plan should not be taken too seriously. The important variable is not the oil price, but economic growth. With their current official plans, the military’s share of the GDP would rapidly decrease to totally unrealistic, western European, levels before the mid-20s.

The plans simply don’t seem to take any economic growth in to account. The numbers are unrealistically conservative. If my very simple calculations are even remotely correct, simply keeping military budget’s share of the GDP at 2.5-3% would ensure a much larger defence spending than 19 trillion in 10 years, even with a modest economic growth.

Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

The numbers are unrealistically conservative.

That is how the Russian government seems to work.
Their budget is based on quite low oil prices ($40).
Real prices are constantly higher.

Exactly, forgot to mention that. The new armaments program has clearly been “invented” with a similar mindset, but it might actually be even more conservative than their recent federal budgets. The oil prices are indeed so much higher than $40 currently, that the Russian budget deficit must be very low, especially if the prices stays this “high” for some time.

Also AP, it seems that the Russian economic growth is actually going to slightly above 2% this year. So if Ukraine really grows by 2% this year (I have no idea, don’t really follow Ukraine), then it’s entirely possible that Russia’s economic growth in 2017 will actually be slightly higher. Not that makes a massive difference to one way or another, just pointing that out.

The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea)

No longer true.

Ukraine experiencing big drop in births, like Russia and the Baltics:

Ukraine Jan-Aug 2017 (2016) (excluding Crimea, Donezk and Luhansk)

Births: 228,289 (247,053) -7.6%

Estimate for the TFR for 2017: 1.39 (1.47)

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143071207&postcount=5630

And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

Russia’s fall is actually steeper than Ukraine’s (-11.4%)!

Combination of recession and other factors.

A rather sharp decrease in the number of births. Dynamics of mortality in this case is the same as in previous years.
None of the factors separately (demographic, economic, social) could not give such a result. Since last year greatly decreased the number of marriages (-15%), and this year on the contrary there is a large increase (+10%), apparently it was one of the strongest factors that influenced on the decrease in the number of births. Many couples delayed marriage (for various reasons – such as leap year, problems in the economy) and now of course no children are born, which would have been conceived after the wedding .

On the other hand, recent years have seen a speeding up of the second birth, to receive maternity capital, which could get up to 31 December 2016. The programme is being extended, but many women gave birth to additional children much in advance of the final date 2-3 years ago. And now they are “not enough” in the number of mothers, that is as if they have given birth faster than they should have.

It has generally been expected, but nobody expected such a strong decline.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=139609638&postcount=32100

I have to admit that I’m actually not sure, but it seems likely. They certainly seem to give more money to the military outside of the program, the process which is then announced mainly/only afterwards… That certainly happened last year, IIRC. And we are talking about tens of billions USD…

I think they announced that the R&D spending is actually going to increase. It’s true that the procurement is going to decrease, but it’s partially/largely because the modernization has already been achieved (by the end of 2020).

The procurement of 2,300 T-14s always seemed totally ridiculous, and was probably a mistranslation, or something. It never even made any sense for numerous reasons…

1. Why did they start modernizing T-72s en masse at all, if that was going to be the case? 2,300 is an insane number by any standards. Western European powers like Germany, France and UK have only 200-300 MBTs each, the US seemingly has “only” around 2000 in proper active service (not 6000) and China has slightly less than 1,000 Type 99s.

2. So the 2,300 figure was and is the total number of “modern” tanks in service, not only Armatas. That is pretty much exactly what they are going to achieve and it seems like an obvious explanation. That includes upgraded T-72s, and T-90s, and now they announced a modernization of some T-80s as well.

So it’s possible that the Armata program might have been slightly cut, but certainly not from 2,300 to 100. One thing to consider is that T-14 seems to be very advanced, and it’s also modular, very upgradeable. Also the gap between different tank “generations” is certainly not going to shorten, so T-14 Armata is going to remain viable for a very long time (50 years even?). The US doesn’t even have any plans to replace Abrams (with a totally new generation vehicle). So it’s obvious T-14 is going to remain in production for a long time, even for the Russian service, probably for 2 decades, or so.

Overall, it seems that the procurement is going to remain pretty similar to what it’s now, which is pretty good. The procurement of Su-35s, Su-30SMs and Su-34 is going to continue at a roughly similar level atleast until 2025, and of course Su-57’s production is going to start increasing.

So realistically having 60-80 Su-57s by 2025, maybe 130-150 by 2030 sounds about right. The cut from 60 to 12, or whatever, is probably not going to matter that much in the end, it was always going to be a long-term program and Russia’s F-22, not F-35.

Also it seems that the procurement of ships and land equipment is going to remain at a roughly similar level as well. They are going to cut attack helicopter procurement, because it seems that that has been going particularly well. And of course less need to procure or upgrade older vehicles (T-72, BMP-3, etc.) after 2020. New missile systems (like Zircon and S-500), more cruise missiles, heavy drones and the average quality of individual equipment is also probably going to keep improving by quite a lot (Ratnik).

But my main point really was that the figure seems too conservative regardless. Even with a modest economic growth, they should be able to afford more by the mid-20s, if the maintenance costs don’t somehow balloon out of control (kind of like in the US actually), or something. And as long as “Putlerreich” doesn’t want to turn into Sweden (in more ways than one, LOL).

“Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.”

Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

It depends on how much lower (salary in factory in Ukraine, vs. being a laborer in western Europe), and if it is worth the hassle of moving abroad and being apart from one’s family. The plants opening up now don’t have a shortage of workers.

The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia…the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect – Tsapok, Khalaleva

Kuban is probably very similar to rural parts of Ukraine. The population is highly mixed with rural Ukrainians. I would expect Kherson, Vynnytsia, Sumy, and other rural central and eastern Ukrainan regions to have Kuban-level IQs. OTOH, Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv would be higher. Zakarpatiya and Volyn would be a little lower but they don’t have a high population. Ukraine overall would therefore be higher than Kuban in IQ.

Also – Ukrainian kids were tested a few months earlier in the school year on the TIMMS than were Russian kids, which probably accounts for a couple points.

The fall seems to be global, births in America are down 3.2% in first half 2017, 1.863m vs 1.925m. The TFR is likely to fall below 1.8 this year, perhaps as as low as 1.75.

For all the talk about US “exceptionalism” in terms of fertility, not only has the US converged with Europe in terms of TFR since 2007 but is now going below European nations such as France or Sweden in TFR. For the first time since it was founded as a nation at the end of the 18th century, US fertility will be below that of several large European states.

As you have mentioned, the US seems to be becoming more and more like Europe.

So Medvedev is out of the picture?

The memes were too strongk.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-medvedev-crimea-visit-no-money-social-media-pensioner/27754644.html

If one were to go by Churkin’s secret pseudonymous blog (discussed here after his untimely death a while back), Rogozin is extremely unpopular with his colleagues as a glory hound and all hat, no cattle kind of guy.

LOL, this is like saying a QB who has failed at 5 different NFL teams is bound to be a star eventually, because he looks good on paper and played well in college.

Well, I was joking. But I should read that Churkin blog. It sounds interesting.

What ever happened to Boris N?

Lot’s of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I’ve ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.

He didn’t like Putin, he didn’t like the opponents of Putin, he didn’t like the Ukraine, he didn’t like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn’t like the people who didn’t like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn’t like Russophobes, he didn’t like Russophiles, he didn’t like people who were neither Russophobes nor Russophiles, he didn’t like Muslims, he didn’t like Syria and Iran, he didn’t like the enemies of Syria and Iran, he didn’t like the Communists, he didn’t like the opponents of Communism, he didn’t like the West (although like all non Americans he felt like he deserved a say on US healthcare policies and gun control legislation), he didn’t like the fact that it wasn’t easy for him to immigrate to the West, etc.

With Boris N, whatever the issue was, you knew his position before the conversation even started: Against.

Lot’s of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I’ve ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.

Maybe he turned against the Internet too.

5/10. Would not bang.

Looks like she has some Jewish ancestry as well. Hmm… revised position: 4/10. Would not bang.

rapidly declining and aging population

Most migration is temporary (work a few months, and return).

Ukraine’ median age is about the same as Poland’s and significantly lower than western Europe’s. The oldest population in Ukraine, with the least children, was Donbas, and it is gone.

its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed

Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow

Russia accounted for 38% of FDI. This mostly took the form of bank racapitalization.

but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state

Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D, agriculture, light industry, and pharma. Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.

Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D

You keep pushing this theme, and it still makes no sense to me. Ukraine has just under 40 million population, the vast majority of them want nothing to do with computers. You can’t have “IT outsourcing” as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!

Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.

And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.

Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

Growth in Poland is unevenly distributed; the Eastern part is economically desolate with unemloyment in double digit figures. That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine? They are basically stuck in limbo until relations with Russia improve.

Or as an agri-colony of CHINA, in time.

None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

I’m not happy about it, but the fertility numbers are so dire that I am tired of seeing them ignored or downplayed. As these figures show, Ukraine’s population drops every day simply because there are more than one hundred more deaths than births EVERY DAY, without taking any account of net migration:

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

As the population ages further and there are ever fewer women of childbearing age, the rate of population decline will accelerate drastically.

There will be hardly any Ukrainian people in existence soon, so there will be none to take jobs of any sort.

PS, Ukraine’s population:

51.4 million in 1990
50.9 million in 1995
48.8 million in 2000
46.9 million in 2005
45.8 million in 2010
44.7 million in 2015
43.6 million projected for 2020
42.5 million projected for 2025

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

(oddly, this source must be counting Crimea as part of Ukraine for the future projections, apparently)

The worst is yet to come for Ukraine’s population. As they have fewer women of childbearing age AND a terribly low fertility rate among those women, the rate of population decline will accelerate. Tragic.

Keep in mind, the Ukraine hasn’t had a census since 2001! So these projections are more like guesstimates really.

I’m pretty sure regime-controlled part of Ukraine has under 40 million people now.

The Ukraine is big enough for both sides, though there are signs that Brüssel is less and less willing to share with the Chinese.

You can’t have “IT outsourcing� as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!

IT, pharma, light industry, and agriculture seem to be growing. That’s hardly a wasteland.

In the first 9 months of 2017, exports of services (largely IT outsourcing) was $7.8 billion, up 10% from last year. Exports of food was up 25% and grain 15%.

“Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.”

And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.

First part is true and of course not good, second part doesn’t follow due to other sectors of the economy doing well.

That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine?

Lviv oblast’s GRP declined a total of 5% in 2014 and 2015. It grew 2% in 2016, and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So far in 2017 salaries are up 20% and costs up only 9%.

The country overall grew 2.3% in 2016, projected to grow 2% in 2017 and over 3% next year. So something is happening.

None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

TFR of around 1.5 is not terrible by European standards. And unlike the case with Europe – this doesn’t mean population replacement, as there is no diversity in Ukraine. It just means a smaller population. In 2050, Ukraine without Crimea and Donbas will probably have a population as it did in the early 1960s. It will be just as Slavic by then. Ukraine was hardly an uninhabited wasteland in the early 1960s.

Moreover Ukrainian birth rates are not even. Here is a nice interactive site where you can explore by oblast by year:

http://datatowel.in.ua/natural/birth-death-regions-historical

You’ll see that 2 oblasts plus the city of Kiev had more births than deaths in 2016. A third one almost broke even (459 more deaths than births).

The EU is booming. Ukraine will get pulled by that train. Russia needs to find a friend without oil to keep up. Turkey is too close to the EU. India’s interest is transactional. China has already given the cold shoulder. The next President has a political hole to dig himself out of. Japan is still an option.

Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.

Uzbeks! And Tajiks.

What French components?

Friendly reminder that PO is a hardcore remainer.

Gerard2 isn’t “barking”, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

(Hardly a surprise if you know anything about the history of that particular geographic region.)

Ukraine doesn’t just lag behind Russia, it also lags behind Belarus in TFR. I think its possible that actual TFR is slightly higher than the one reported, because the number of women is overestimated, but I’m not interesting in going too deep into such speculations.

The point is these losers are embarrassed to do a census, because they know how bad their demographics are.

lol EU is currently “booming” at an annual rate of 2%. Russia will have no trouble “keeping up”.

The TFR is not terrible by European standards?

In other words, the Ukrainians aren’t dying out as a people much faster than the English, Germans, French, Italians, and Swedes are dying out as peoples. Impressive and reassuring.

I wish it weren’t so, but Ukrainian population decline is set to accelerate drastically as the number of women of childbearing age shrinks.

Ukraine’s growth is below global average, despite the fact that the country currently has some African levels GDP per capita.

In other words, the world is leaving Ukraine behind. It’s kinda funny, telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians, but Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections!

That’s what I meant when I said that Ukraine lacks economic potential: it is stuck in a rut, with no clear way out.

The Ukrainians will stay around longer than the English. The English not only fail to reproduce, but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace. And the English collapse is still far away. So Ukrainian demographics is not going to hinder their economic performance for some time.

A 2% European growth rate would be enough to induce strong growth (4-5%) in Eastern Central Europe. Possibly in Ukraine, too.

So do you think Hungary can finally exceed its 2008 level of GDP? I’m happy for you, guys!

https://www.google.com/search?q=hungary+gdp

Nominal GDP is what really matters when we’re talking about international financial flows and trade.

Put simply, nominal GDP indicates the country’s “weight” in international markets, its “purchasing power” and capacity to absorb imports. Eastern Europe can grow its GDP all it wants, but if it won’t buy more Ukrainian goods, then how is their growth going to benefit the Ukraine?

exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)…The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade…As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%…On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years – a period foreseen in the Agreement.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en

It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia’s direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.

It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously.

Sorry, I meant:

It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that Anatoly clings to so tenaciously

Subconsciously, I think that AP’s first name is Anatoly too…just guessing? 🙂

I don’t understand what “truine Russia” means. There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached. The Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste.

telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians,

Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867.

Ukraine’s Human Development Index score is the same as Armenia’s at .743; Nigeria’s is at .527.

(although Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries’ HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectively).

Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections

Central Africa’s Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

You are soooo objective.

There is a small oil-rich central African country that is wealthier than Ukraine – Equatorial Guinea. Alas, its per capita GDP PPP of $25,535 places it ahead of Russia also.

There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached.

You must still believe in Santa Clause too, Tovarishch? 🙂

Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste

.
Total nonsense! Apparently you have reading comprehension problems, and aren’t able to put 2 +2 together. Ukraine’s situation will steadily get better as its trade relations with the EU increase over time. I suspect that Russia and its true believers in the ‘triune Russia’ will someday soon discover that Ukraine is indeed a separate country, with a unique history and culture all its own, and that reestablishing good neighborly relations including trade is the way to go, not stupid and costly and unmanageable wars with its neighbor, that only lead to decline for all involved.

Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867

Your point? These are comparable figures. It’s even closer in nominal terms with Nigeria just ahead. What’s more Nigeria is growing much faster.

That means the Ukraine will be trailing Nigeria for the rest of its independence. Think about that!

BTW, I’d love to hear how Karlin can explain that – clearly national IQ isn’t everything.

Gerard2 isn’t “barking�, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

Says the guy who believes stuff like the Tsars persecuted the Orthodox Church more than did the Soviets, or that Russia is as deeply religious country.

Let’s look at the barking:

Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017…Russia, on the other hand is now past “break-even’ stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop

Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.

More barking:

Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil

Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.

Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot……they are directly dependent on them…and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine

Lviv oblast’s GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it’s doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

What’s more Nigeria is growing much faster.

In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

Ukraine’s forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

Given Ukraine’s declining and Nigeria’s growing population, per capita numbers have lagged more for Nigeria in 2016.

You are sooo objective.

He’s just wrong. As I posted in my reply to him:

In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

Ukraine’s forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

Given Ukraine’s declining and Nigeria’s growing population, per capita numbers make the differences even greater.

It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.

That doesn’t sound like a good thing for Ukrainians.

Not really a fair comparison – the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars

Also at least 5% of the population left. (Mostly highly productive young people.) So per capita GDP is higher.

So, what course of action would be preferable? Don’t forget that one of Karlin’s incessant themes as of late is that Russia doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas, much less all of Ukraine…I think that he’s correct here!

Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, i

There are 44 million people resident, a half-a-dozen cities with populations over 600,000, $370 bn of business and industry, and has a favorable balance of trade in foodstuffs. The notion that it isn’t ‘viable’ is one of those lies the more brazen sort of Russian nationalist is wont to tell.

Sorry if I’ve misconstrued you. It seems that initial Russian propaganda circa 2014 helped promote a picture of a beneficent Mother Russia, willing to even increase pension payouts to pensioners in Donbas. Apparently, citizens of Crimea had their pension payments absorbed and increased over Ukrainian ones. Russia of course is hesitant to annex any more Ukrainian territory, and absorb any more social program payouts.

The English not only fail to reproduce

TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52). Note that in Northern Ireland where non-European migrants are rare the TFR was 1,95, higher than in France or America.

but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace.

Pray for Brexit. A worse economic performance should discourage that.

Say Anatoly, I’ve had all of my comments at UNZ put on ‘Your comment is awaiting moderation.’ ever since I started commenting at your blog (and others at UNZ) since I first started, about 8 months ago.
Since then, I’ve never had even one single comment deleted by Big Brother. Is there any way to change my status, for as you see, my views aren’t all that controversial here? 🙂

AK: Everybody’s comments on this site are premoderated (except on mine; Ron made the exception for my blog at my own request).

When the USA becomes unable to credibly threaten sustained conventional force in Ukraine, as we will, the European countries themselves will not be able to do much with their pathetic militaries and declining native populations. They will have their hands full with a never ending Muslim and African crime wave, far greater than what has already developed, and ultimately large parts of their countries will be effectively conquered by Muslims.

China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

“The EU�, if it still exists in twenty years, will have no opinion re Ukraine that China need seriously worry about.

TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52).

What about TFR for native English? Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

Not sure about that.
The Ukraine reminds me sometimes of Norkland: Russian Edition and considering how much the Chinese failed to influence the DPRK…

UK TFRs for 2016 released today

UK 1.79

Regionally

Northern Ireland 1.95 (Highest – Mid-Ulster and Newry, Mourne & Down both 2.15, lowest – Belfast 1.77)

West Midlands 1.91 (Highest – East Staffordshire 2.14, lowest Newcastle-under-Lyme 1.48, notable mention Shropshire 1.89 )

East England 1.91 (Highest – Forest Heath 2.31, lowest – City of Cambridge 1.45)

Northwest England 1.85 (Highest – Blackburn & Darwen 2.25, lowest – City of Lancaster 1.62)

Southeast England 1.84 (Highest – Slough 2.29, lowest – Brighton & Hove 1.30)

Yorkshire & Humber 1.82 (Highest – City of Bradford 2.21, lowest – City of York 1.37)

East Midlands 1.82 (Highest – Corby 2.15, lowest – City of Lincoln 1.56)

Southwest England 1.79 (Highest – Forest of Dean 2.06, lowest – City of Exeter 1.34)

Wales 1.74 (Highest – Denbighshire 2.09, lowest – City of Cardiff 1.59)

Northeast England 1.72 (Highest – Middlesbrough 1.98, Lowest – City of Newcastle-upon-Tyne 1.56)

London 1.72 (Highest – Barking & Dagenham 2.47, lowest City of London 0.75)

Scotland 1.52 (Highest – Shetland Islands 2.02, lowest – City of Edinburgh 1.22)

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143586150&postcount=35280

Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

And Northern Ireland does not? Neither are English.

what do your parents think of your move back to the Motherland?

Great. Giant statues of Nadiya Savchenko are exactly what this world needs now.

I think I saw you mention that before… You have no idea what you’re talking about.

Okay, that is total nonsense. Armata doesn’t have any “French” components, certainly not any major ones.

And 2030 sounds totally ridiculous, who would actually ever make than kind of a prediction? How could it ever take that long to replace tank components – for Russia?

It’s like Russia doesn’t have a full-scale, internationally competitive MIC and that the Russian military and MIC haven’t been considerably modernized during the last 5-10 years. Why not 2050? 2300?

Optics and fire control system.

Before the vote, yes. Since a soft leaver. Vote on terms, stay in single market or at least CU.

Optics and fire control.

Budget. As Medvedev said. There is no money.

The low TCR’s are all student cities with large populations of single young women. The high TFR’s are often places that have been passed by. and seem to be the very high immigration areas of pre EU times or completely native with not much in between.

Oil prices fell in 2014, for 25+ years. Oil consumers, foremost amongst them the EU, are the growth engines now.

Russia is at -0.2% and has restricted access to capital.

They’re happy he found a way to shuck off that nutty girlfriend. Now if she would quit calling them….

Russian GDP is projected to grow 1.7-2.2% in 2017. Russian companies can borrow domestically and do not really need Western capital.

A big happy Thanksgiving to all of the American members of the Unz/Anatoly commetariat. Even Seamus and 5371.

And of course to Anatoly himself, a happy Kwanzaa.

Isn’t Ukraine larger and more fertile agriculturally than North Korea? It would, therefore, be more important to China in feeding its own vast population, and China would be willing to do whatever it takes to secure control over Ukraine’s ag output.

Wishing you a happy and blessed Thanksgiving, as well, GW.

I’ll even wish Happy Thanksgiving to my buddy Corvinus 😉
Seriously, I wish the best for all of you and your families.

For someone who bred out of his own white race, RadicalCenter, your preoccupation with Eastern European birth rates seems a bit strange. You should worry a bit more about your own country. In fact, the white birthrate in the US has crashed and the TFRs for whites in the US are currently not higher than in many post-Soviet states, that is, around 1.7. White American and Russian birthrates currently are not all that much better than Western Ukrainian, Belarussian or Lithuanian.

Regarding the Chinese – again, I’d worry about yourself (especially the future generations). The Chinese are not just buying up hot properties in Southern California and the big West coast cities, such as Seattle, San Fran, etc, forcing local middle class whites into the boonies where they are pauperized by low job prospects. The Chinese are buying up real estate in small towns of America. Why don’t you worry about that first.

Are you sure it won’t just be Medvedev again? Or at least someone from the “liberal”/technocratic side of the Kremlin. That may be a better fit for the Boring Years angle, though I suppose that on the other hand a sufficiently pliable silovik would have some advantages there too. (A “liberal” would work better for rapprochement with other liberals and the West, but on the other hand “Only Dyumin can go to America”, i.e. sell it to the electorate.)

AP is a typical Ukrainian nationalist and facts mean nothing to him, only his convictions. Here is a chart comparing GDP per capita for Ukraine and Nigeria.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

I can see a beautiful convergence on this chart. 🙂 And yes, Nigeria has a fast-growing population, which makes its per capita performance look even more impressive. This is what a real economic boom looks like, and a good story for international investors, unlike the desolate Ukraine.

GDP per capita in Nigeria is 29% lower than that in the Ukraine. Reliance on natural resource rents is about the same in both territories, but Nigeria’s income distribution is much more skewed, with the hypertrophy of the share captured by the most affluent decile accounting for about 15% of national income. As far as the standard of living for the broad majority is concerned, real income levels in Nigeria are about 40% lower than the Ukraine’s. (N.B. Nigeria’s life expectancy at birth is 19 years lower than that of the Ukraine and 49% of the population over 15 in Nigeria is illiterate).

And, of course, being forcibly conquered by Russia will destroy a large mass of physical and human capital. It will in and of itself do nothing to address the Ukraine’s institutional problems. They’re just not that into you. Get over it.

Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher”, it’s exactly the same:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

They’re just not that into you.

You don’t know that. And ultimately, this isn’t about what some people in this territory want. It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

Yeah, no. Simply not true.

Russia has enough money for the military modernization and all current projects. Armata is basically finished at this point, ffs. You seriously think Russia doesn’t have modern optics and fire control systems? And it would somehow take them over 10 years (!!!) to develop those!? Again, why not 100? Where does that 2030 come from? 2020 would atleast sound somewhat believable (and you would still be wrong).

Su-35 is operational (just to make a comparison to Armata and its electronics), the first photo evidence very recently proved that the new engine for Su-57 really does (already!) exist, they just rolled out a new Tu-160 and an A-100 (!), unveiled a whole set of heavy drones, which Russia didn’t have previously… and I could go on and on, but “no moneys”!? Not to mention that dozens of T-14s have actually already been produced (before the actual production has even started)!? Right…

You also seem to still think that Russia’s economic growth is at -0.2%, when it actually is at +2%. Sums it up really. Your “knowledge” about the Russian military seems to also be from 2007, and I’m being generous.

Anatoly…when will you next be on Crosstalk? You were on once, and that was it! …and when will you be on any of the Russian talkshows?…its a good source of money…and I hear the Ukrainians,Polish dickhead and Michael Bom dimwit are earning sizeable amounts from it. Russia, unlike Ukraine and unlike most western countries ..actually allows on all types of viewpoints…even the most anti-patriotic liberast clowns (who if anything are massively overrepresented on Russian federal TV and radio)

well said…..smart man

Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system

I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This ia also true of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.

Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher�, it’s exactly the same:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine’s currency collapsed.

In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you – Ukraine 30% higher.

We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania’s and Panama’s level due to ruble devaluation:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=RU-RO-PA

Independent Russian state has used its Soviet considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that is lower than that of Panama or Turkey.

they just rolled out a new Tu-160

The one that was entirely built from parts that were stored during the Soviet Union times?

Wasn’t that partially? Anyway, I’m not sure how relevant that is… just one the new and current projects, that was my point. It’s a testbed, so I guess all the new features will be tested on it, serial production will start in around 2023.

It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

Unfortunately for you, the Ukrainians look upon Ukraine as belonging to Ukrainians, not to the Russians. You guys to the north already control way too much land to colonize properly. Watch out that China doesn’t take back the Chinese lands in the far East that was stolen from them. Get out of Ukraine, and stay out!

Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

No, the gdp per capita assessed at purchasing power parity is 29% lower in Nigeria than it is in the Ukraine. And, of course, Nigeria has an intensely skewed distribution of income, so what prosperity Nigeria has is less prevalent in the population as a whole.

It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours.

The people who actually live in the Ukraine might have something to say about that. Public opinion in the Ukraine in favor of merger with Russia is pretty much nil and the bloc of political parties congenial to Russia has lost 2/3 of the electoral base it had 7 years ago. Every thing’s just working out swimmingly. If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.

Putin stepping down would be very good news indeed. His continuance in office makes war almost inevitable. He’s bogged down in Ukraine and in Syria (where he is also a sitting duck). Having deliberately thumbed his nose at the international community, there’s no way he’s ever going to get an agreement on either and it must be dawning on him by now that his American supporters are not going to be able to manipulate their own country into capitulating to him. His recent rather frantic attempts to get some sort of agreement with Trump on Syria suggest that he considers himself in deep trouble and panicking. Putin has been in power continuously since 2000 and is now 65 years old. That’s retiring age in Europe. He could decently retire saying he’s “tiredâ€�. Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable, given state control of the media, but whatever popularity he has would very quickly evaporate if Russia started taking heavy casualties (in Syria, for example). Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling. Incidentally, the incredible fury that the author’s comments about Ukraine unleashed speaks volumes for just much trouble Putin is in.

“The next Presidential term is looking up to be one of technocratic optimization and further reforms, of privatizing an overly state-dominated economy, of trying to restore relations with the West.”

Mr. Karlin,

I am grateful for the exceptional learning experience you have shared.

Have one question on your quotation, above.

Several months ago, esteemed author Paul Craig Roberts wrote an article on the (internal) influence of the “Atlantic Integrationists” upon the Putin government and the direction & development of the Russian economy.

Admittedly, research is not my “ballywick” and I respectfully ask if you may know more specifics on “Atlanticist Integrationists”? In short, who are they and are they connected with key drivers of global economy.

Thank you very much!

Putin may be tired, but he is still the best chess player on the scene. Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu can possibly be in the same league in terms of cunning, the other players are not even close. The US is often losing because it keeps playing checkers against his chess, but after “Iraq WMDs� it does not have decent players, it’s diplomacy is brain-dead.
The thing I really don’t understand is why the West is so keen on Putin’s going. Russia would never tolerate another Gorby or Yeltsin, so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets in their vaudeville “states�, and quite a few more half-baked regimes the US invested in creating to surround Russia. My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.

Only someone who does not understand Russia can consider Sobchak or Navalny seriously. The rumor has it, both are Kremlin creations, because nobody can discredit self-proclaimed opposition in the eyes of the Russians better than it itself does. What’s more, Russians are particularly hard on traitors. Any wannabe politician, who says that Crimea belongs to Ukraine (even if s/he later retracts this statement, like Navalny), or gets the money and/or marching orders from the US, can kiss his electoral prospects goodbye. The US routinely destroys the credibility of so-called opposition in Russia by funding it and inviting to the Embassy, without even understanding that this plays right into Putin’s hands. Putin is smart enough to use this state of affairs for his own benefit, especially when hapless and clueless US diplomacy is doing the dirty work for him. He is much more cunning than late unlamented Soviet leaders lacking brains and any sense of humor.
Putin’s foreign policy is supported by the great majority of Russians, but the economic policy of his government is not. However, people who reveal their traitorous nature loose credibility in everything, even when they rightly criticize economic policy or point out the cases of corruption. If the West had even rudimentary understanding of this, it would not be surprised so often.

My first big project in Russia was reviewing 120 inventions for the RAS for commercialisation. Then I started working with the Russian Opto-electronics industry. You are taking Russian propaganda at face value. Armata is a dinosaur anyway. Kicking the can along the road saves the embarrassment of an immediate cancellation.

I hope he does run so when he wins we can blame it on the Russians!

Well, this does say that only 100 units will be delivered by 2020, which is not far off 2030 …

I, for one, am hoping for a nice little conflict between NATO and Russia so we can see how each side’s equipment and personnel really perform.

If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.

That’s absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn’t be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

{Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu…..}

Netanyahu in the same league as Putin?
You are joking , right?
Nutsoyahoo is your typical Israeli politician: a loudmouth, arrogant, preening nobody who thinks he or she is somebody – while under the protective umbrella of US. If not for US support (….and influential Jewish American diaspora) nobody would pay attention to Israel’s leaders.

{so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. }

Most likely: Yes. That’s what US/NATO want.
Can you guess why?

{He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets….}

Ukraine maybe: would a big mistake.
Baltic puppets: never. Much to lose and nothing to gain for Russia.

{My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.}

No: West/NATO/US can’t wait for Putin to leave office and a hot-headed Russian nationalist to replace him.
Reason West hates Putin is because he confounds them every time they try to bait him into doing something rash. He will not play West’s game. He will not step into their traps. Putin’s public persona is always conciliatory towards the West: he always talks about ‘our partners’ (the West). You know, “… it’s a little misunderstanding between ‘friends‘: no big deal.”

West desperately needs a rash, boisterous Russian leader, who will publicly call the West ‘the enemy’, and act impulsively. West was hoping that Putin would invade Ukraine: Putin kept his cool, despite the tremendous pressure form Russian nationalists to help their Russian kin in East Ukraine. He knew and knows that the Junta in Kiev will self destruct. And any help to Novorossyia can be done without fanfare.

I worry about both. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

My children, by the way, speak better English, know more about American and Western history, are more proud of Western civilization, are less inclined to take shit from PC lefties, more willing to expend effort to preserve our traditions, and will be more able and ready and willing to defend their family and neighborhood and nation with firearms, than most white kids born to two white parents here in the USA.

I have written to, emailed, and called my fed and State reps to demand a crackdown on both legal and illegal immigration, as well as restrictions on foreign ownership of land and resources here. They haven’t listened, as you may have noticed. I have donated to p9litical candidates and groups more than I can afford. I have worn political shirts and been spit on and hit for my trouble. I have attended rallies and been threatened, followed, and surveilled for it, at risk to my career. I have forwarded columns and information to literally a couple thousand people, friends, relatives, coworkers, acquaintances to try to educate and influence and inspire them to also demand change.

All while raising three children, losing a parent, and staring to care for the other parent who is declining in health.

Sorry my efforts don’t meet your lofty standards.

Why don’t you specify in detail what you have done that is superior in these regards. Tell us how many children you have and exactly what you are doing to raise them right and influence and restore something of our culture and liberty. Then get a consistent screen name that we can tell apart from others.

PS good point about China buying up property everywhere in the USA and Canada. If you have attended a movie at an AMC theater in recent years, for example, you have enriched our future overlords in China, namely billionaire real estate developer Wang Jianglin.

I don’t take my family to that chain of theaters, for that reason. Were you even aware of the ownership of AMC? Do you make similar efforts to be loyal to America and not support our rivals and enemies in the minutiae of your life?

We spend much more on clothing and shoes for our kids than necessary, because we buy so much American-made goods from small companies online instead of just getting what’s cheap made in China from Walmart, Target, on Amazon, etc. how about you and your family?

Moreover, Russia merely needs to hold its native population constant – which admittedly I’m unsure whether they are doing or will do – and watch while Ukrainians die off.

(Kinda like the Muslims and Chinese proliferate and watch while whites play with their iPhones, talk about how bad whiteness is, take useless college classes then complain that they can’t get good jobs beyond Starbucks and Uber, invent new pronouns and play at taking offense at everything, and binge-drink and tattoo and f—- each other up the ass while other races actually do the hard and satisfying work of HAVING AND RAISING THEIR OWN CHILDREN, teaching them to study hard, work hard, fight whenever needed, and be proud of who they are.)

Ukraine will soon have very few fighting-age men to resist an invasion from Russia or anyone else. The decline in Ukraine population is about to accelerate drastically, apparently to a degree not suffered by Russia at present. Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe. Given the dearth of reproductive-age women in Ukraine and their general unwillingness to have more than one child, Russia will face a neighbor with only 30 million Ukrainians soon enough, eventually far fewer. Ukraine is North Dakota without the oil and the high levels of social trust, and it Will continue to depopulate.

Hmm, maybe a deal can be made when the US dollar and/or economy collapse or the US otherwise becomes unable to afford or sustain projection of power far abroad (e.g. widespread, ongoing race riots or civil war in the US). China takes Taiwan and Australia while Russia takes Ukraine and maybe the Baltics. Who would stop them exactly? And except for our love for our brothers in Australia, why would regular Americans care about the rest of that scenario?

That’s absurdly exaggerated.

Military planning is not my business.

I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

Now, the expense and the bloodshed may improve on some alternative state of affairs. Political decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, what are you attempting to improve on by rolling the tanks into the Ukraine? Well, you have a certain subset of Russian chauvinists who fancy Ukrainians cannot function without Russians calling the shots or that the Ukraine is a sort of Eurasian commons with no proprietary population. That’s flagrantly silly.

There were people in this country who had the idea in their heads that the residual parts of British North America ought to be incorporated into the United States. They got their asses handed to them on the battlefield in 1813 and the issue disappeared from American political discourse. Anglophone Canadians have a truncated sense of self, but one thing they’re sure of is that Canada is not ‘the States’. Re the Ukraine, Russians in their capacity as citizens would benefit by letting it slide; there’s seldom a shortage of things to discuss in your domestic affairs.

Understand your sentiment, but how can we be sure that the conflict will remain a nice little one? Better that it never begin.

USA and Russia had better get together against China, Islamism, and other common threats. But that would require Americans to regain control of the us government and come to their senses. I hope we can do so before this current elite leads us to massive war or, what is more certain, demographic and economic and cultural suicide here at home.

The largest, most supposedly prosperous EU countries, Germany and France, will find it impossible to continue providing even half of their current welfare state and standard of living to their own people, given the growing cost of subsidizing the African and muslim hordes who have set up permanent residence there. Forget about aid to Ukraine. Forget even about most purchase of foodstuffs or whatever else from Ukraine.

Relying on people who will not even have children or defend their own existing women and children -my people in Europe – is a fool’s bet. Europeans lack the common sense and courage to be good allies, and they will soon lack the resources to be good trading partners either.

However difficult emotionally, Ukraine ought to seek customs union, favorable trade agreements, and the like with Russia and other Eastern European countries. Including countries that hopefully have the sense to leave the eu soon, like Hungary and Austria and Poland.

PS What exactly was Putin supposed to do? Do you seriously expect the leader of Russia to allow an aggressive, hostile, untrustworthy power like the US government to install naval and land military bases in Crimea, further encircling and hemming in Russia? Because that is exactly what would have happened if Russia hadn’t re-taken the Crimea.

I have no illusions about Putin or Russia. Let’s not have any illusions about the US gov and its track record and sick ambitions either.

Yes, the EU will have massive permanent welfare dependency, entire cities that are no-go zones for nonMuslims, more mosques than factories, more homosexual bars than churches, and more bitter barren women than children (at least until the Muslims have the numbers to “address� that first part), and a booming trade in korans, hijabs, and halal meats. What a glorious economy and culture to hitch ones wagon to. What attractive trading partners and allies for the Ukrainians.

Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

Congratulations to the Europeans, and to the government ruling “my� country (the USA), for making Russia look like the better option. That took some work.

Nice use of the Soviet-era Russian word for “comrade.� Snark is always a good substitute for argument, evidence, and logic.

Who is the so-called international community? If we had free popular referenda worldwide with the choices being the USA/EU or Russia, who do you think would garner more trust and good will?

The vote in China and India alone would be so lopsided as to ensure a worldwide majority vote for Russia. Didn’t have to be this way, but it is, and it is well deserved based on US government lying and reneging and murdering and then accusing others of the same. Don’t deceive yourself.

So when Putin seeks a peaceful negotiated solution in Syria, that shows he is “desperate� and weak, eh?

What if Putin did NOT seek such a solution? You’d be the first calling him a warmonger.

What exactly can Russia do, besides curl up in a ball and let the US take and kill and occupy and sanction and drone and threaten everyone and everywhere it wants, that would meet your approval?

If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn’t be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

You’re proposing to liberate Ukrainians from themselves. Cute.

Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

Ukraine is between Russia and Poland. Poland is not the Europe you describe.

Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe

Not much more severe. And unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large Muslim population within their country and to their immediate south. And the nationalistic parts of Ukraine are demographically stable.

You are right in one important thing: the West hopes that the next Russian president wouldn’t be as cunning as Putin and will step right into Western traps set for him. This is possible, but unlikely: Russian elites (which are, BTW, just as corrupt as the US elites) mostly appreciate Putin’s ability to outmaneuver the US and its vassals, so they will try to find someone as cunning as Putin. Very likely that person would have to learn on the job, like Putin did (compare him in 2001 and now – it’s night and day). Russian elites also learned a lesson from the fiasco of Ukrainian elites: grand thieves do need a strong state to protect them, as there are always other thieves eager to steal their ill-gotten riches.
You are also right in another thing: if the next leader has any brains, he would not act too much, but would instead allow the Ukrainian regime, as well as the US, NATO, and EU, to continue their self-destruction, following old Chinese wisdom that the best thing is to sit on the bank of a river and watch the dead body of your enemy float by. Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.
But the words would change: the enemies would not be called “partners� any more. Also, Putin’s inclination to let everyone save face would be gone. So a lot of Western players will find themselves having eggs on their faces. Their impotent fury would be a sight to see.

A few words of caution.
Fertility: every developed or even half-developed country (with the exception of the US) has fertility problem. In terms of its severity, Japan has the worst problem of them all. Ukraine’s main problem is not just low fertility, it’s the situation when many millions of citizens live and work outside of it, for the most part in Russia and Poland. By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991).

Corruption. Yes, Russian elites are corrupt, but so are the elites of its main foes, including the US. Otherwise, how do you explain that the US spends on “defense� more than the rest of the world put together, and yet does not seem to be fit to fight even puny North Korea? How do you explain persisting problems with F-35 that the US invested hundreds of billions into? Or the fact that the engine of a multi-billion Zumwalt broke down in Panama channel, so that it had to be towed out of it? As for Ukraine, in terms of corruption it’s way ahead of Russia, as it was even in Soviet times. Many people have noted that while the first thing the Ukrainian road police tries to do is to squeeze a bribe out of a driver, whereas after Crimea joined Russia, Crimean road police no longer takes bribes.

Demographic “stability� of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country. That’s why most gastarbeiters in Russia and Poland are from that part of Ukraine. The people there have two options: join the Ukrainian army (which they are reluctant to do) or get out of the country to find work. Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian. This is likely an overestimation: less educated and less civilized people in Ukraine do not have internet, and that’s the people who largely speak Ukrainian. But this fact is yet another problem for the nationalists.

Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars. The game does not go well, though: Crimean Tatar language became one of the official languages in Crimea only after it joined Russia; Kiev-sponsored Tatar “leader� Dzhemilev voted for the Europarliament resolution condemning Ukrainian law of exclusive use of Ukrainian in school. Naturally, this law excluded Tatar language, among others. This law was meant to be anti-Russian, but it offended Tatars along with Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it (while whatever it has or gets is stolen by corrupt officials).

though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.

The revanchist vote in Germany and Austria after the war was close to nil. People with dirty pasts active in Austrian politics concealed them carefully.

Germany and Austria benefited after 1945 from that absence of bitterness. People were plenty bitter during the inter-war period. Learning from experience. It’s great stuff.

If you and Felix would like to try learning the hard way, well…

—

The Russophile party in the Ukraine has for several years now polled around 12% of the public; there is no suggestion whatsoever in their platform that Ukraine should merge with Russia. Pew undertook a survey a couple of years back of public opinion in the Ukraine. The respondents who favored the end-state of ceding the Donbass to Russia amounted to 2% of those polled. Another 4% favored a sovereign Donbass. You’re all implicitly advocating a political outcome in the Ukraine the preference for which cannot be properly gauged with surveys because it’s so unusual.

Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.

The Baltics are more affluent than Russia, by a factor of 1.12 re Latvia and 1.25 re Lithuania and Estonia. Natural resource rents account for 10% of Russia’s domestic product, v. < 1% for the Baltic states. There's room for improvement on some indicators (Latvia and Lithuania have elevated unemployment rates around 7-9%) but their other macroeconomic indicators (inflation, public sector debt ratio, public sector deficits) are generally satisfactory. Their exports are diversified and oil and minerals account for less than 20% of export revenues in all three countries. External debt levels in the Baltic states are high but they are currently running current account surpluses or small deficits.

{What exactly can Russia do,…..,. that would meet your approval?}

Basically, disappear as a sovereign state.
So that Neocon reptiles can freely loot its natural resources and enslave its people.
And not be a nuclear impediment to the Globalist plans to dominate various parts of the world ‘near and dear’ to the Neocons’ evil ‘hearts’.

Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop, as well as transit fees for Russian goods, which are dwindling and are about to stop in a year or two. Russia built a huge Ust-Luga port specifically to take away transit fees from the Baltics. These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites more than anything else. Even with these props Baltic countries are not far ahead of Russia. Without them they are likely to fall way behind. What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now), which is hardly something to write home about. Personally, I know only one Balt, an Estonian. He lives in Finland for many years and complains that Estonian language is not as similar to Finnish as many believe.

What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now),

The total fertility rate for the Baltic states is slightly higher than the European mean. There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home.

Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop,

Net subventions from the EU amount to about 3% of the gross domestic product of the Baltic states. Were it withdrawn tomorrow, you’d see a disagreeable recession for which a workout would take several years. Roughly 2/3 of the net subsidy is accounted for by the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, which I doubt will be disappearing anytime soon. They pay the subsidies because they’re more affluent than the Baltic states are. Russia is not more affluent and would not be even were the subsidies to evaporate.

These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites

I think you’re projecting.

You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home�.
The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there.

This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) – the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn’t as deeply rooted – had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians). But at least we didn’t drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).

Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language.

This is a problem for all Eastern Europeans (except maybe Belorussians) – I’m sure you’ve met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian. But there are Latvian language and school curricula programs for kids abroad. In fact, the use of the Baltic languages has increased a lot (you may not know this but all of the EU legislation and essentially every meeting is translated into Baltic languages, the languages are used in international sales, IT terminology is being developed and we also create machine learning and AI language tools). Most Russians in Latvia are citizens, 20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion), many Russian city mayors, the ones who are not citizens are so by their own choice – they don’t want to naturalize their children because they still have relatives in Russia and it would impede with them visiting there (they’d need a Russian visa).

Lithuania has the same problem,

No it doesn’t since Lithuania never had a huge Russian influx – they kept it below 7-10% of the population, how they managed it we don’t know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification. Also, the military center was organized in Latvia, more so than Lithuania.

The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.

I’m sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let’s say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B. The Baltic states in general are thriving. Ofc, it’s not ideal, and there can always be minor adjustments (both politically and economically), but in general the living standard is going up, the climate for exports this past year was very healthy. Unemployment is down, we will need labor soon, we’ll need those well educated and white Ukies. You did mention the Russian transit, and, yes, it’s an issue (and not pleasant, nothing new there), but our ports have a better infrastructure and the quality of service we offer is higher.

Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

A few decades? Do you mean like 50 years? No, that’s just nutty. The Baltic languages will probably be around for hundreds of years (which isn’t much, I agree). Possibly beyond. There are no three versions of Latvian (lol) – there is standard Latvian and dialects (some of which are cultivated, such as Latgalian (originally from Eastern Latvia), by introducing the first Latgalian ATM recently). Would you be happy if there were fewer languages and everyone spoke Spanish, English or Chinese? Do you prefer that all Europeans spoke only English? Because it’s def not going to be Russian, my friend, we Balts (and Ukies) are the last non-Russkies who still speak it as a second language. So be nice.

The Russian share of Estonia’s population was at it’s peak in 1989 and has declined slowly and steadily since then, now sitting at 25% of the total. The same has been true in Latvia. The same is also true in Lithuania, bar that Russians, White Russians, and Ukrainians never amounted in sum to more than a single-digit share of the population therein.

Ethnic Russians in the Baltic states who want citizenship have to pass a proficiency test in the local language. That’s a perfectly reasonable requirement, and one many ethnic Russians have met in the last 25 years. Calling it ‘apartheid’ is just lying.

To be clear, I was referring to places like Kharkiv and Odessa – not Kiev (which Keverich thinks Russia could take over and control fairly easily). There would be significant resistance in Kiev.

So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

No, Azov is from Kharkiv, Right Sector largely from Dnipropetrovsk. There would be plenty of native troublemakers setting off bombs, taking pot-shots at troops or officials. It wouldn’t be building-to-building mass resistance but a large and expensive headache for the Russian occupation forces.

Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages.

Hundreds of thousands speak Welsh after 700 years of English rule. The majority in Friesland speak Frisian. Basque has a 7-digit population of speakers. See Ethnologue. These are not endangered or declining languages.

There’s the world as it is and the world as you wish it to be. You get confused between the two.

By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991)

Birth figures contradict this weird claim.

Most Ukrainian migrants are temporary. They work for a few months on Poland, then drive home. Warsaw to Kiev is about a 9 hour drive.

Demographic “stability� of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country.

True of Volyn, not true of Galicia. Here is Ukrainian population density:

Lviv has about 800,000 people, larger than national capitals like Slovakia’s Bratislava or Lithuania’s Vilnius.

Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian.

Because more results can be found in Russian. For the same reason there are more queries in English, in Russia, than native English-speakers in that country.

Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars

When Crimea was part of Ukraine Crimean Tatars were about .5% of the population. They are much less now. Russia is about 10% Muslim, not including undocumented migrants (so another few %). There is no comparison.

Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it

In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has virtually no Muslims.

Sorry to disappoint, but the world I wish to be is very different from what you apparently imagine. Not to mention that in Soviet times I was a vocal proponent of the independence of all three Baltic states. They appeared more civilized than the rest. Now I know that the mentality of their elites is purely tribal, of the Hutu-Tutsi variety, further clouded by a severe inferiority complex. How else could you explain the fact that in Latvia the law requires everyone to have an “s� after the first and last name? Like, you would have to be Arts Decos, if that were you name.
The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade. What’s more, successful multi-national states have many official languages (Switzerland has four, so does Singapore, Belgium has three, to name just a few). The US does not have an official language, although you do need good English to be successful. In sharp contrast, Baltics and Ukraine have only one official language. That’s a surefire way to undermine your country, but that’s not my problem.
Knowing what I know now, I could not care less about the Baltics. I left Russia in 1991 (~6 months before the Soviet Union was dissolved) and lived in the States ever since. I work in research, have better publication record and more citations than most Russian Academy of Sciences members, have good funding despite tough highly competitive environment, have full professorship and an endowed chair is in one of the top US universities. Obviously, there is no way I would go back to Russia, considering the state of the science there. However, my father fought against Hitler in WWII. He got decorations and was wounded several times. Therefore, there is no way I can respect or want to visit any country holding Nazi parades. This includes Latvia, Estonia, and present-day Ukraine. Curiously, there are no other countries on that list.

The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid

I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.

I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

I understood you to be claiming the death roll for Russian forces would be six figures. As a total death toll for both sides and civilians, six figures is less implausible, but I think still unrealistic. The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks, and would be unlikely to produce total military and civilian casualties of more than 10,000-20,000 (or about 10-20 times the total casualties per day during the most intense period of fighting in the Donbass conflict). Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

The high civilian casualty rate in Chechnya was due largely to the fact that in the 90s and early 2000s the Russian army was a poorly trained conscript force (in the 90s it was barely even a functional military organization). And the reason the Iraq War resulted in so many civilian deaths is that the Iraqis began killing each other in sectarian violence. Presumably, nothing similar would happen in Ukraine.

PS: There was a typo in my last post, that should be 2,500,000 reserve personnel in the Russian military, not 250,000.

Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?

2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas. Russia had excellent intelligence on other regions and would have taken them too, had it been fairly cheap and easy to do so. Crimea is 60% Russian, the Donbas republic areas about 45% Russian. Kharkiv oblast is only 25.6% Russian.

The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks

America started bombing Iraq in March 19 and captured Baghdad in April 9th. I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017 (2014 would have been a different story), not to mention the fighting spirit of soldiers (Slavs are not Arabs). I suppose a month or two could also be described as “a few weeks” of course.

Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

Depends where. Limited to Kharkiv, probably. In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced. Insurgency could be deadly in those regions.

Thanks to the Donbas war, Ukraine has 100,000s of men with some familiarity with fighting and shooting. It would be hard to differentiate the pro-Russians from the anti-Russians. An insurgency could be quite expensive.

Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?

It wouldn’t make sense for Russia to invade more than the east and south plus Kiev. But even if for some reason Russia invaded all of Ukraine, I think it’s unlikely that Russian casualties would exceed 5000-10000, or not much higher than what the US experienced in Iraq.

2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas.

Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn’t been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017

Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia’s active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).

In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced

The 1940s Red Army had a lot of experience in conventional warfare, but it was also a conscript force without experience or training in counterinsurgency. Also, thanks to advances in body armor and military medicine, far fewer soldiers die from their wounds today than decades ago: If the USA had fought the Iraq War with Vietnam-era medicine, the number of US soldiers killed would have been nearly double. So the number of Russian casualties in an occupation of Western Ukraine today, would probably be more similar to US losses in Iraq than to the Red Army vs. UPA.

What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

Their populations will decline more and more drastically unless the total fertility rate improves massively and soon.

Latvian is losing more than one percent of its population every year, without exception, I.e. a net decrease of at least 20,000 people each year out of only two million. It will be a country of fewer than one million residents within the lifetime of some readers here, then on downwards faster on current trends.

There won’t be many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians left alive to speak any language. I think this is a tragedy, but the numbers are stark.

Here is a chart of Latvian ethnic populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia#/media/File:Population-of-Latvia.svg

Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn’t sparsely populated back then.

“2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas.”

Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn’t been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

Kharkiv City is not another Donetsk. In the 2010 mayoral election Avakov (Poroshenko’s interior minister, who has links to the nationalist/neo-Nazi Azov battalion) got 48% of the vote, losing by only .63%.

Someone posted pro-Maidan and anti-Maidan vkontake stats. These are a good gauge of the attitudes of young people (the ones who will fight). Anti-Maidan was much more popular in Donetsk – in Kharkiv on the other hand the two sides were evenly divided.

Moreover, support for Yanukovich during Maidan isn’t the same as support for annexation by Russia. That’s a much more extreme position, with far fewer adherents. The Russians would have come to own a large city where half the young people hated their presence and where most of the rest of the population didn’t want them to be there. Imagine the mess if some local boys take pot shots at Russian occupation troops, they return fire, and local Kharkovites are being killed by foreign Russian soldiers.

So sure, the city could have been taken fairly easily. There wouldn’t be bitter block-by-block fighting as would probably happen in some parts of Kiev. But occupation wouldn’t have been so cheap.

“I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017”

Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia’s active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).

OTOH the Americans had clear desert and plains in Iraq while the Russian invaders would have cities, forests, and hilly areas to fight through. Ukraine has another 85,000 reserves and 100,000s of demobilized people with some combat and weapons experience. Iraqi forces melted away, Slavs don’t tend to do that. Obviously Russia would win in the end, but beyond taking the border city of Kharkiv it would probably be much more costly than invading and occupying Iraq was for the Americans.

This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) – the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn’t as deeply rooted – had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians).

Actually, you Baltic cretin….

What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

That’s not a problem peculiar to the Baltic states. Total fertility rates in the Baltics are at the European mean. Russia only surpassed the current Baltic rates about 5 years ago and they are still not very far ahead of the Baltics.