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BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
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Opinion Poll
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Opinion Poll

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Taliban Rule Is the Democratic Will of 13% of Afghans
•�August 18, 2021
•�3,300 Words •�348 Comments
It is true that Afghans probably have the highest "Islamism Quotient" in the world. Support for sharia, as Steve Sailer reminds us, is basically universal. He refers to a 2013 PEW poll, which Razib Khan and I had covered a few years back. Furthermore, 79% of Afghans who support sharia also support the death penalty... Read More
Rainbow Ascendant
•�August 13, 2021
•�800 Words •�129 Comments
I mentioned this Ipsos poll on global attitudes to LGBT in a previous Open Thread, but it really deserves a separate post on account of its significance. I think it demonstrates three things: LGBT rights (as in marriage and adoption) have become universalized beyond their Western core, with the Rest sliding into line soon after... Read More
41% of Ukrainians Agree They and Russians Are One People
•�July 28, 2021
•�100 Words •�266 Comments
These are the results of a recent poll from Rating Group. 41% agree with Putin's position, 55% disagree. Not bad, considering there's now been a generation's worth of state svidomy narratives. But possibly the most startling result (and certainly one that I didn't expect is there there's essentially zero difference across age groups. 44% of... Read More
Navalny's Popularity on the Wane
•�July 11, 2021
•�100 Words •�154 Comments
That's what I counselled people hoping for (or fearing) that a color revolution was imminent a few months ago: Look at the numbers. Well, since then, they have if anything plummeted further. 14% approval vs. 62% disapproval. Down from half a year ago. Furthermore, while young people are relatively more pro-Navalny (this is not surprising:... Read More
Rejecting Sputnik to Own Putler
•�July 6, 2021
•�500 Words •�166 Comments
Yesterday the Levada Center released a new poll on vaccines that tends to confirm my contention that Russia's tawdry pace of vaccinations is not a result of supply constraints, but the banal fact that many Russians (including in older age groups) would simply rather catch Corona than get vaccinated. The first observation is that the... Read More
Opinion Poll: Is Russia "Europe"?
•�March 18, 2021
•�300 Words •�373 Comments
New Levada poll shows Russians decreasingly willing to identify Russia as a European country: From 52% in 2008 (vs. 36%) to 29% in 2021 (vs. 64%). However, perhaps even more tellingly, this percentage goes DOWN with age. Just 23% of 18-24 y/o's identify Russia as Europe, vs. 33% of 55%+ y/o's. Could it be that... Read More
Opinion Poll: Belorussians Favor Union State with Russia Over EU
•�March 15, 2021
•�1,400 Words •�197 Comments
Been a while since the last Belarus update. It looks like progress towards implementing Union State provisions continues, with some accomplishments including: Mutual recognition of visas from third countries. (So getting a Russian visa will now enable you to visit Belarus as well). Moves towards removing cell phone roaming. Russia to recognize results of the... Read More
Don't Waste Time on Hacks. Look at Numbers.
•�February 4, 2021
•�200 Words •�163 Comments
Western media: Angry Russians fed up with Putler's corruption pour into the streets. But now the first post-"palace" video opinion polls are coming in on Putin's approval rating and related questions: Levada: 65%→64% VCIOM: 60%→61% FOM: 61%→60% Levada is a private, opposition-leaning pollster. VCIOM and FOM are state-owned pollsters. Other polls: FOM: Did the actions... Read More
World Poll: Trads vs. Trans
•�December 23, 2020
•�400 Words •�83 Comments
«Ромир»/GlobalNR poll with n=7,100 respondents across nine countries has some interesting if broadly unsurprising results. (Extra coverage). Percentage that agree with: "Traditional gender roles for girls and boys are better suited for society." China - 82% Russia - 71% India - 69% Thailand - 48% USA - 47% Italy - 43% UK - 37% Brazil... Read More
Serbia Is Down But Not Out
•�December 22, 2020
•�200 Words •�152 Comments
Interesting results of some recent polling: 72% Serbs think Russia's influence in Serbia is positive (+11% relatove to 2017), while 7% think it's bad. 87% think China's influence is positive (+30%). 32% think US influence in Serbia is good, while 59% think it's bad. Of greater relevance, perhaps: 24% think EU influence is good, whereas... Read More
The Black Clinics of Kolkata
•�December 11, 2020
•�200 Words •�17 Comments
There's a lot of interesting data in the recent PEW poll on public attitudes to gene editing research, though it's really just the increasing intelligence part (4th column) that's of civilizational significance. Gene editing for IQ is still a philosophical discussion at this stage, despite very fast progress in the relevant fields. So these numbers... Read More
Malleability of Values
•�December 3, 2020
•�200 Words •�120 Comments
Poll shows that Russians are basically ~50/50 on whether women changing their surname about marriage should be "mandatory" or not. This happens to be the exact same figure in the US. Half of Americans believe it should be a "government requirement." And that survey is from 2019. This suggests that Russians aren't fundamentally more "conservative"... Read More
Where the World's Racists Are... In 2020
•�October 28, 2020
•�600 Words •�74 Comments
Audacious Epigone has pointed out another interesting question from the latest round of the World Values Survey. (I covered religiosity a few days ago). This question concerns the respondents who said they would not like to have neighbors "of a different race" than their own, given as percentages of respondents from a given country. AE... Read More
Who Do Russians Support in Karabakh War 2020?
•�October 27, 2020
•�200 Words •�19 Comments
FOM poll: 12% with Armenia, 2% with Azerbaijan, 71% with neither/equally. Armenophilia tends to increase with: Higher education Wealth Muscovites But the effects aren't that big. Probably the single most interesting result is that Azerbaijan doesn't enjoy elevated sympathy in neither the North Caucasus (10% pro-Armenia, 0% pro-Azeri) nor in the Volga region (11% pro-Armenian,... Read More
Russians Would (Unenthusiastically) Vote for Trump
•�September 28, 2020
•�300 Words •�20 Comments
If Russiagate fantasies were real and they had the vote in US elections - at least as suggested by this FOM poll. This is not to say that Russians like Trump - their short post-elections honeymoon was soon after undermined by Russiagate sanctions and foreign policy erraticism, such as the strikes on Russian mercenaries in... Read More
Russian & Ukrainian Attitudes to Belarus Maidan
•�September 28, 2020
•�200 Words •�15 Comments
KMIS poll on Ukrainian attitudes to Lukashenko vs. protesters from: It was carried out on 12-16 September, i.e. after the breakdown of Belorussian-Ukrainian relations following Lukashenko's about turn on extraditing the Russian mercs to Ukraine. Across the Ukraine, 31% support Lukashenko while 45% support the protesters. I would actually probably similar to figures for Belarus... Read More
Belarus: Boomer Russophilia, Millennial Occidentophilia
•�August 22, 2020
•�200 Words •�114 Comments
From Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin in The Washington Post, who have in general done some very useful and objective (at least, quantitative) work on geopolitical attitudes in Russia's Near Abroad over the years. Here is the key observation: While allowances may be made for youngsters drifting towards more conservative positions with age, the divide... Read More
Basarabia e România
•�August 13, 2020
•�200 Words •�71 Comments
So apparently 70% of Romanians agree with that powerful slogan. When I was in Romania, their libs were telling me only marginal freaks supported reunification with Moldova. But evidently, they were wrong. It is more like 70% of the population as that map shows. I actually think Moldova is pretty interesting as a comparator for... Read More
Political Compass on Lukashenkophilia
•�August 13, 2020
•�900 Words •�2 Comments
Stunning age differential on Russian view of events in Belarus, according to VCIOM poll. 33% of 60+ y/o's believe Lukashenko's 80% result was fully authentic, vs. just 3% of 18-24% y/o's. General background note: The past couple of years have seen an awning divide in chronological terms. While Putin was actually marginally more popular amongst... Read More
PEW Poll on Religiosity 2020
•�July 31, 2020
•�200 Words •�145 Comments
Major new study from PEW on religion in 2020. It is amazing to think that basically equivalent numbers of Russians and Poles connect morality to God, that would have seemed a very bizarre situation a couple of decades ago, when Russia was associated with pseudo-lesbian pop duo Tatu while Poles would make the cross when... Read More
Russian Nationalists on US vs. China Confrontation
•�July 25, 2020
•�700 Words •�72 Comments
I collected some official polls about Russian opinion towards China last year here. But what do Russian nationalists in particular think? Well, back around May 24-25, when it became clear that the Cold War was going to get a reboot with a major change in cast, a couple of us - myself, and Kirill Kaminets... Read More
Map: China Approval in Europe
•�July 20, 2020
•�100 Words •�205 Comments
Interesting map of European approval of China, though being mostly from 2018/19 (see Sources) this was from before the coronavirus. But I don't expect the general patterns to have changed, the countries already disposed to think well of China wouldn't have had their expectations shattered - possibly, even the converse - while the more Sinophobic... Read More
No Racism in Russia
•�June 29, 2020
•�100 Words •�60 Comments
Recent Levada poll asking 14-29 year old Russians and non-Russians how often they feel discriminated against. Non-Russians: 77% say never discriminated against. Also 78% of women say there were never discriminated against on account of their sex. This succinctly answers the question of whether there is racism and sexism in Russia. There isn't, so far... Read More
Lysenko's Curtain on JayMan World
•�June 16, 2020
•�200 Words •�44 Comments
Over the past ~5 years, there have been intermittent debates amongst the HBD crowd as to what will come first. Widespread HBD acceptance, due to the "free market of ideas" leading to a kind of "enlightened" radical centrist utopia in which liberal-left goodie-goodness is anchored in a benign paternalism borne of HBD realism (i.e. what... Read More
Hedonic Treadmill, #BlackLivesMatter Edition
•�June 9, 2020
•�100 Words •�28 Comments
Zach Goldberg, eminent scholar of the Great Awokening, writes: However, as with all political religions, failure to immanentize just means that the faithful weren't praying hard enough. So double down.
The Wealth & Masks of Nations
•�May 24, 2020
•�2,400 Words •�94 Comments
There are at least many views on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of lockdowns. The balance of the evidence suggests that they do work, though the effect is confounded in complex ways by people spontaneously engaging in risk-reducing (but GDP-lowering) behavior. Be that as it may, the point is becoming moot, since they are ending across... Read More
Reality Disconnect
•�May 21, 2020
•�100 Words •�60 Comments
Just released PEW poll: America: 95,000 deaths, epidemic still raging - just as "reopening" gathers steam. China: 4,500 deaths, epidemic contained, economy humming along to the extent it can in the midst of a global depression. Like, even if those crematorium calculations were legitimate and China's deaths were an order of magnitude higher, this still... Read More
Polish Rancors
•�May 21, 2020
•�200 Words •�116 Comments
Interesting poll from the Center for Polish-Russian Dialogue. Causes of discord: History 74% Economics 34% Current politics 21% Current culture 11% This suggests that the impasse in Polish-Russian relations may be resolvable, if Russia was to adopt my suggestion to adopt a "politics of memory" on the victims of Bolshevism. It's not like Warszawa, unlike... Read More
What Does Russian's "Generation Z" Think?
•�May 19, 2020
•�500 Words •�54 Comments
Russia blogger/retired Canadian diplomat Patrick Armstrong highlights a big new poll from Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung/Levada in his latest Russia Sitrep: Main points of interest: 1. Young Russian are both more nationalist and more liberal than Russians as a whole - as indeed I have argued before, based on voting patterns. However, unlike voting for the KPRF, it... Read More
Ukrainians Send Chinese Aid on Soviet Planes to USA
•�April 18, 2020
•�200 Words •�144 Comments
Propaganda: The FTFY version (h/t Bryan MacDonald): *** Would indeed be pretty strange for the Ukraine to do it for free, since it has received a grand total of $1.2 million in Corona-related aid, which is basically an insult even relative to Ukraine's economy. I suppose even Ukrainian West-worship has its limits. Incidentally, on that... Read More
Turks Don't Want Idlib--or Refugees
•�March 5, 2020
•�500 Words •�56 Comments
This, at least, is the result of an instructive poll carried out recently amongst Turks. Here's the three main takeaways: 1. Erdogan's popularity is at a relative low point. 2. 49% of Turks don't want their military in Idlib, vs. 31% who do. 3. 60% don't think refugees will return home after the war, 71%... Read More
No Radical Changes In Russian Cabinet
•�January 22, 2020
•�900 Words •�38 Comments
Bryan MacDonald has covered PM Mikhail Mishustin's new Cabinet in detail at his RT blog, so I'll avoid repeating the listings there and widely available elsewhere. *** Despite the heavy import of Putin's proposed Constitutional changes, the actual change in the Cabinet has been negligible. Sergey Shoigu, Sergey Lavrov (contra initial rumors), and Vladimir Kolokoltsev... Read More
European Attitudes on Miscegenation II
•�December 15, 2019
•�300 Words •�207 Comments
New Eurobarometer 493 poll (October 2019) [download data] largely confirms what I wrote about this last year. The map is from /r/europe. (1) Poles least based in EE... as usual. (2) Sociologically, Ossies are now an essentially EE people. According to Cicerone, West German average would be 8.0, while East German average would be similar... Read More
What Do Intelligence Experts Think?
•�November 18, 2019
•�1,500 Words •�58 Comments
Rindermann, Heiner, David Becker, and Thomas R. Coyle. 2020. “Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Intelligence Research, Experts’ Background, Controversial Issues, and the Media.” Intelligence 78 (January): 101406. Experts (N max = 102 answering) on intelligence completed a survey about IQ research, controversies, and the media. The survey was conducted in 2013 and 2014 using... Read More
ECFR Poll on European IR Preferences
•�September 12, 2019
•�100 Words •�129 Comments
You can read the report with all the polls here. Of note: 1. Slovakia is the "Russophile" outlier. 2. Results are very largely the same for a conflict putting the US against China (pp. 10) Macron is currently making some moves to normalize EU-Russia relations, which hasn't been covered much because the MSM would much... Read More
Homosexuality and Honor Killings in the Arab World
•�June 25, 2019
•�100 Words •�30 Comments
Approval of them seem to be strongly correlated... at least according to this recent BBC poll. That is a rather more puzzling result than the fact that Arab religiosity is going down (through from a very high base), especially amongst the young. This has been frequently noted, by Razib Khan and others. Atheist YouTube is... Read More
Notes on Russian Attitudes on China
•�June 24, 2019
•�700 Words •�156 Comments
This is not meant so much to be an "editorial" post as a set of notes for future reference purposes, although it is hoped that my readers may find them useful as well. Summary of a couple of FOM polls of Russians on China: Russian Interest Towards China (2015) China (2018) (1) As of 2015,... Read More
The Collapse of the British Two Party System
•�June 3, 2019
•�100 Words •�37 Comments
... has seemingly occured in the blink of an eye, and has given way to an emerging four party system. There was one brief period during the early 2010s when it looked like the Lib Dems might finally break out as the third "party of power." However, that uptick ended up as a damp squib... Read More
So About That Latest Stalin Poll...
•�April 16, 2019
•�100 Words •�31 Comments
Which showed a new record in Stalinophia, with positive views of the mustachioed Georgian BDSM master now approaching 70%. Here is a more interesting/original poll. 40% said they wanted the pensions they had under Stalin vs. 26% said they wanted the pensions they have under Putin. Under Stalin, only bureaucrats and urban workers enjoyed pensions... Read More
The Future of Russia-Ukraine Relations
•�March 22, 2019
•�1,100 Words •�272 Comments
The latest polls, jointly conducted by KIIS (Ukraine) and Levada (Russia), show that the collapse in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia may be turning a corner. Legend: Ukrainian attitudes towards Russia [blue]; Russian attitudes towards Ukraine [orange] For the first time since April 2014, more Ukrainians have a positive impressive of Russia than the converse. Attitudes... Read More
New Peak in US Russophobia
•�March 1, 2019
•�200 Words •�56 Comments
Gallup: Majority of Americans Now Consider Russia a Critical Threat It has also, for the second time since February 2015, become America's "greatest enemy." But if the percentage of Americans saying that was 18% back then, now it is at 32%. Relative to average Russia disapproval of 73%, this reaches 80% amongst Democrats, 84% amongst... Read More
What the Pink Guards Think
•�March 1, 2019
•�200 Words •�2 Comments
As per Zach Goldberg, a politics researcher at Georgetown State: Now to be sure, they may just about be right about Hispanics; at least Ron Unz argues so - while I used to be convinced, others have made good counter arguments, so I don't really know. But they're certainly at the same order of magnitude,... Read More
96% of Kuril Islanders Oppose Joining Japan
•�February 21, 2019
•�400 Words •�29 Comments
I have already mentioned that there is virtually zero popular support for handing over the Kurils to Japan, so current hopes (and histrionics) on this topic are almost certainly nothing but hot air. I wouldn't even be making this post if not for a new development in this saga - the appearance of concrete numbers... Read More
Surkov Is Not A Deep Person
•�February 13, 2019
•�1,100 Words •�59 Comments
The Kremlin "ideologue" Vladislav Surkov has recently written an article for Nezavisimaya Gazeta called "Putin's Long State." It posits that the Putinist system's power stems from its unique ability to "listen and understand" Russia's "deep people" - in contradistinction to the "deep states" that control the West beneath their democratic facades. This means that the... Read More
Kurils Poll
•�January 27, 2019
•�500 Words •�140 Comments
I wrote why giving away the Kurils (even just two of the islands) to Japan in exchange for fuzzy and unenforceable investment commitments is a really bad idea back in 2010 and I see no cause to change any of that. One big problem, then as now, is that ordinary Russians are against it. The... Read More
Huge Collection of Polls on Human Genetic Engein
•�January 17, 2019
•�400 Words •�4 Comments
Ask and ye shall receive! Via Nightfox: Here is a partial list of worldwide opinion polls on genetic editing: Highlights below. (Sample sizes not listed are unavailable.) TL;DR US support for cognitive enhancements collapsed in the 1990s. Support for genetic editing appears to be higher outside the Hajnal line (see Turkey, Italy, Spain). U.K., XI.2017:... Read More
New Poll on Human Gene Editing
•�January 16, 2019
•�200 Words •�18 Comments
It was carried out a couple of weeks after China's CRISPRgate. Results are basically the same as for the July 2018 poll by PEW, in which 72% consider gene editing for treating a serious condition at birth appropriate but only 19% support it for intelligence augmentation. Other polls I'm aware of: Chinese poll in 2018... Read More
PEW Confirms "Soviet Freezer" Theory
•�November 3, 2018
•�600 Words •�111 Comments
There's a few theories that I push over and over again when discussions on European social trends come up: Communism was a "deep freezer" that conserved antediluvian ("based" in our lingvo) social attitudes in Eastern Europe, at least relative to countries under the American sphere of influence. These attitudes express themselves particularly strongly on LGBT,... Read More
PEW: 250,000 Anchor Babies Per Year
•�November 2, 2018
•�100 Words •�8 Comments
Hot on the heels of the Center for Immigration Studies report comes a study from the PEW polling organization, which estimates that there were 250,000 births to illegal immigrants in the US in 2016. Given the vast challenges in estimating births to illegals, the degree of agreement between the two organizations - which have rather... Read More
Gay Marriage in Estonia
•�October 30, 2018
•�100 Words •�211 Comments
This graph shows support for gay marriage in Estonia by age group and language (blue - Russian; red - Estonian). The older people lived in one homophobic country. Amongst younger people, Estonians tuned into Estonian language media, which I imagine is highly Europeanized, or even went straight to the source (English language media). Russians tuned... Read More
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.