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Worst prediction on the history of this blog? (Consolation is that said prediction wasn’t mine, though I did think it interesting enough to highlight).
Anyhow, far from “going to zero”, Tesla stonks have increased tenfold since May 2018.
Tesla now constitutes something like 30% of the market capitalization of all the world’s automakers combined, at a p/e ratio of more than 1,000 (most of the Tech Giants are at ~40).
So, what we have in Tesla is a company that accounts for just 0.4% of global car production in 2019 (365k/92M), in one of the world’s most gruesomely competitive sectors, and one that is due to become even more competitive, since batteries are simpler than internal combustion engines (fewer moving parts), which will propel a number of new entrants from China (Neo, etc.) to join the existing European/Japanese/American global auto giants. There is the rejoinder that Tesla is really more of a tech company, but its self-driving AI technology is not the best in its class (that would probably be Waymo), and in any case, any large automaker has the capability to generate a large amount of training data in short order.
It’s difficult to see how Tesla can support these valuations in the long-term, or why it is supposed to be innately much more valuable than, say, Volkswagen or Renault (whose budget EV cars are outselling Tesla’s in Europe), or those new Chinese EV companies. I can see Tesla retaining a permanent lead in the luxury segment – becoming what Apple is to the cell phone and laptop market, i.e. a strong, “cool” brand that signals status for the moneyed SWPL class that will consoom that product. But to justify its current price – let alone expand into trillion dollar territory – it needs to maintain its current profit margins while rapidly expanding to acquire a dominant market share of the world auto market. Seems like a tall order.
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You were doing pretty good until this – let alone expand into trillion dollar territory.
All the currency (not money) printing is going asymptotic and finding its way into the stock market. Therefore, Tesla can just ride the hyperinflation wave to trillion dollar status and well beyond.
When (not if) it reaches that mark of no particular importance, the moneyed but brain dead will take that as a signal to purchase even more stock, and a Tesla, for the privilege it offers of telling their friends how smart they are with the vehicle in their driveway as proof.
This is the madness of crowds in full public display.
We should imagine Sysyphus as a rather 'appy guy. (Camus said that).
The bulls say they have a lead in AI. All their cars are driving with sensors hovering up data which nobody else can match. I’m not saying they’re right but that’s what they’re betting on. Not EV but self driving EV
I just purchased a 2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 that has only 39,000 miles on it. It’s in perfect condition (obviously a Sunday church car) and is a really sweet ride. The previous owner is already complaining to me that his brand new Toyota Corolla has fewer goodies (and it does). I’ve thought about hybrids, but have shied away because I’m not interested in the prospect of having to eventually exchange the batteries. Electric cars? Maybe next time around. Gasoline prices are relatively low, and there are fewer and fewer places that one travels to these days.
A 1,000 P/E ration – that’s incredible.
It’s baffling how they’ve gained so much market value while losing their competitive edge. Tesla used to make the best electric cars but today have competition in every car segment. With Porsche Taycan Tesla doesn’t even make the best electric sports car anymore.
I lease my Tesla 3 and my favorite feature is the interior. Elon Musk, 6 foot 2, made a car that makes no compromises for Manlets. First time I felt like a car was made for someone other than a 5’4 Chang or 56 percenter ‘white’ femoid with a Napoleon complex.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/1976_Lincoln_Continental_Mark_IV_Givenchy_designer_series_%28interior%29.jpgA really great ride for one of those front seat Romeo kind of guys. :-)
The old Cadillacs were also a great ride that offered the driver "plenty of room".
I would guess that back in the day you would have been a Lincoln Continental Mark 4 kind of guy?
A really great ride for one of those front seat Romeo kind of guys. 🙂
The old Cadillacs were also a great ride that offered the driver “plenty of room”.
How much of it is due to Musk’s celebrity?
Tesla quality seems to leave a lot to be desired and there’s a reason no other car company builds cars in California. I’ve heard Tesla’s have excellent resale value but I’m not sure I would want one for that very reason. Batteries wear out and I’m not sure how much actual value a used electric vehicle actually has given the cost of replacing the battery pack. I can buy a low mileage used ICE car and have a pretty good idea how much life it has left in it. I’m not sure EV’s have that kind of track record… YET.
Musk has taken advantage of ESG/Climate mania but, going forward that same mania is going to put real pressure on battery supply as other car makers go EV to say nothing of homeowners and big electric utilities ‘greening’ their electric power and require additional battery capacity.
Space X might be the real jewel in Musk’s portfolio. His Falcon self landing rockets are remarkable and give him a unique capability in the LEO satellite field.
People are buying Elon Musk and his vision. Self driving Teslas on Mars. It’s not very rational, but that’s “unlimited wants”, as the economists put it, for you. 🙂
EVs in general are an interesting phenomenon. People buy them thinking that they are more environmentally friendly than internal combustion cars, even though the opposite is true. If you take into account environmental damage caused by making batteries (including mining for necessary minerals), producing electricity, and then disposing of old batteries with their highly toxic contents, burning gas in your internal combustion engine is a lot less damaging to the environment.
It’s the same with solar panels: if you count environmental damage caused by production and disposal, even the dirtiest coal-burning power plants do a lot less environmental damage per unit of electricity produced. But a lot of people are easily fooled, especially those who consider themselves intelligent and fool themselves.
I have seen different claims about how many miles an EV has to drive to make up for the extra emissions involved in producing batteries, over the life of the car its clearly cleaner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZws7kE3U5k
Motors and batteries from crashed Teslas end up being used by companies like Zero EV, pay close attention to the size of the batteries in their cars, the Mazda MX-5 has a 26kWh battery, about the same size as the battery In the Gen 1 Leaf, but batteries have improved so much 26kWh is now smaller than a MX-5 engine, also look at the size of the 53kWh battery they have built for a Porsche 911, its far smaller than the 53kWh battery that went into the original Tesla Roadster
The batteries from used 20 year old Teslas and other EVs will end up being used as home battery storage, its the easiest way to recycle batteries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNjUdTJjiNk
Right now the most interesting EV IMO is the Aptera, to begin with they won't sell many cars, but if they can stay around for a few years, they might see real growthReplies: @AnonFromTN
Much like most other stock valuations, it’s all built on BS and marketing.
It has a more mundane name – a bubble. Bubbles inevitably burst.
Most of the waste resulting from EVs will be accumulated in Third World countries anyway, and the cars will not emit any pollution in the well to do neighbourhoods that these people live in so they will get another way to “upgrade” their lives.
I would never consider buying it at that high inflated P/E ratio. How could anybody?..
Where’s Thorfinnsson when you need him anyway? I’ve forgotten the correct speloing of his name, it’s been so long 🙂
Me neither. I consider anything with P/E greater than 20 a bubble. As I don’t want to invest much time into trading stocks, I never buy anything with P/E in the bubble range.
Brian Wang’s (NextBigFuture.com) take here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/#comment-48551
***
It is now a game of factories and also a game of self-driving. A profitable good range EV is the second poker ante and before that is having a desirable EV design. The Tesla Roadster was desirable. The Tesla Model S and X are desirable and profitable on single car basis. Model 3 took the whole company to profitability at scale.
Making 100k-200k EVs/year and losing $1-4billion per year is one thing but what will it take to be a major-let alone dominant player in 2025. 2030?
Volkswagen is losing $4500 for every ID3 they sell. the eGolf was a relative failure. Volkswagen not expecting to make money until 2025. If they are losing $4500 per car then selling 1.1 million costs them $5 billion. GM is selling its Bolts at 12k below MSRP and the Bolts had a starting price that was not profitable for GM. Tesla has been selling all of its cars without spending $5B per year on ads.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/
Volkswagen cannot scale (convert gas car factories to EV factories) until they are making profitable EVs. They can endure pain to be in the game at 200k-500k/year but they dare not convert 10 factories to get 5 million cars per year in 2023-2025.
World 3 million EV/year in 2020 (Growing 30% per year but signs of accelerating to 50-70% per year as EV get more desirable than combustion cars). Maybe 5 million in 2021. 8-9 million in 2022. 15-25 million in 2025.
There is room for 2 to 4 companies making 5 million cars per year in 2025 and then 2 to 4 companies making 10 million cars per year in 2030. It will cost $20-40 billion to build the factories by 2025. $10+ for the R&D. Does each also have to eat $10-20B in losses as they scale? It will take another $20-40 billion to make/convert factories to get to 2030 scale.
If it is so simple to scale EV, then why does Volkswagen target 1.5 million cars per year in 2025 and GM 1 million? Tesla will have 1 million to 1.5 million cars per year in 2021. GM and Volkswagen have to spend $30-50B and 4 years to get to where Tesla is 2020-2021. Tesla continues to innovate.
Some of the China EV makers will have the government backstopping them with billions for factories.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/global-electric-car-sales-has-an-annualized-4-million-in-september.html
If Tesla maintains 20% global market share and has 90% of the profits from EV, then they are like Apple versus the Androids. Apple has almost all of the smartphone profits.
Tesla makes 26+% auto margin and growing. So they make $13000 on every $50000 car they sell. After $1 billion in quarterly operating expenses that is mostly profit.
They are raising another $5 billion today for 0.8% dilution. That is enough for them to start two more gigafactories for another 1 million cars per year in 2023.
Does GM-Volkswagen have over the air update? Do they have their own AI chip. Tesla is heading to 2nd and 3rd gen on the custom AI chip?
By 2023, Tesla will have rolled out most of the Battery day innovations. Half the cost of the batteries. Batteries part of structure. 70% lower cost to build out factories.
Tesla can race ahead on factories and new models and massive amounts of batteries because they have 500,000 EV/year profitably made and sold.
EV are not simpler to make really good. Tesla leads on the efficiency rating of batteries and drivetrain. kwh/miles/weight.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/teslas-huge-advantage-with-batteries-and-drive-train.html
You get government mandates out of the picture people will no more want electric cars than they want cheap watches or cellphones. Only the poor will want a battery powered car because they cannot afford the engineering and cost of a ICE that roars when it accelerates.Replies: @Dreadilk, @YetAnotherAnon
In the meantime, it's Chinese battery companies that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies.
While the pouch or prismatic battery cells on average cost more than $200 per kWh in 2019 and Tesla’s cylindrical cell battery pack dropped to $158.27 per kilowatt-hour last year, in comparison, the cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh, CATL’s low-cobalt NMC battery packs are close to $100/kWh.. CATL is building a $ 2 billion battery factory in Germany are in cooperation with Tesla to build EV batteries.
https://pushevs.com/2020/05/18/catl-cobalt-free-battery-cells-are-already-below-60-euros-per-kwh/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC
Tesla Battery Day? SVolt May Ruin The Party With Cobalt-Free Li-Ion Battery (with 1.2 million km, or approximately 750,000 miles, warranty). Svolt will also build a battery factory in Germany soon.
https://insideevs.com/news/424185/svolt-cobalt-free-li-ion-battery/
In other news,
GAC to test its "super-fast-charging battery" in production vehicles, which can charge to 85% of full capacity in 8 minutes.
CATL's 2-Million Kilometer (a lifespan of approximately 1.24 miles) Battery Has No Connection To Tesla
https://insideevs.com/news/428508/catl-2-million-km-battery-not-tesla/
1. replacing empty battery with charged one will take just two minutes in appropriate 'battery station'. It's simple more convinient for most people.
2. EV can be sold without battery, you will lease one from 'battery station'. This will put initial cost of such EVs below classic or EVs with embeded battery.
3. In few years you will get new improved batery models in 'battery station' wich can provide extended range for you EV.
4. You will never wear out your battery or in case of battery mailfunction give your precious EV for recyclyng at fraction of cost.
If this becomes true, competition in EV market will push mainstream models profit margins far below those profitable for Tesla.Replies: @(((They))) Live
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/admixture2.png
EVs batteries are recycled in much the same way parts from “normal” cars
I have seen different claims about how many miles an EV has to drive to make up for the extra emissions involved in producing batteries, over the life of the car its clearly cleaner
Motors and batteries from crashed Teslas end up being used by companies like Zero EV, pay close attention to the size of the batteries in their cars, the Mazda MX-5 has a 26kWh battery, about the same size as the battery In the Gen 1 Leaf, but batteries have improved so much 26kWh is now smaller than a MX-5 engine, also look at the size of the 53kWh battery they have built for a Porsche 911, its far smaller than the 53kWh battery that went into the original Tesla Roadster
The batteries from used 20 year old Teslas and other EVs will end up being used as home battery storage, its the easiest way to recycle batteries
Right now the most interesting EV IMO is the Aptera, to begin with they won’t sell many cars, but if they can stay around for a few years, they might see real growth
I am talking about the fact that the sum total of environmental impact of EVs is very large. Naturally, “green” people do not think about that. They tend not to think about anything that is not spoon-fed to them by lugenpresse.Replies: @(((They))) Live, @Dmitry
I honestly think that Musk has a bit of Bushman in him. Probably not much, but something. Maybe, a tiny bit of Malay too. I guess Bantu would not be entirely off the table either.
I always find it amazing how such a little bit shows.
I doubt it, I have seen pictures/videos of his mother, she’s 100% European, his father looks to be the same
He has some Boer ancestry from his father. Boers have been in South Africa for a long time - that means a lot of ancestors in South Africa. Today, pretty much all of them have some admixture, despite often being very pale, with blond hair and blue eyes. I think I can see a touch in his father too, despite the wrinkles.
His mother was born in Canada.
He has some Boer ancestry from his father. Boers have been in South Africa for a long time – that means a lot of ancestors in South Africa. Today, pretty much all of them have some admixture, despite often being very pale, with blond hair and blue eyes. I think I can see a touch in his father too, despite the wrinkles.
It mightn’t continue to be as mad as you make us think. – Oh, now I’ve made Thorfinnson’s mistake too – if in disguise (=to a lesser extent (so – well: I – ceteris paribus – will only have kinda failed as bad as he has – so far, hehe)).
We should imagine Sysyphus as a rather ‘appy guy. (Camus said that).
***
It is now a game of factories and also a game of self-driving. A profitable good range EV is the second poker ante and before that is having a desirable EV design. The Tesla Roadster was desirable. The Tesla Model S and X are desirable and profitable on single car basis. Model 3 took the whole company to profitability at scale.
Making 100k-200k EVs/year and losing $1-4billion per year is one thing but what will it take to be a major-let alone dominant player in 2025. 2030?
Volkswagen is losing $4500 for every ID3 they sell. the eGolf was a relative failure. Volkswagen not expecting to make money until 2025. If they are losing $4500 per car then selling 1.1 million costs them $5 billion. GM is selling its Bolts at 12k below MSRP and the Bolts had a starting price that was not profitable for GM. Tesla has been selling all of its cars without spending $5B per year on ads.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/
Volkswagen cannot scale (convert gas car factories to EV factories) until they are making profitable EVs. They can endure pain to be in the game at 200k-500k/year but they dare not convert 10 factories to get 5 million cars per year in 2023-2025.
World 3 million EV/year in 2020 (Growing 30% per year but signs of accelerating to 50-70% per year as EV get more desirable than combustion cars). Maybe 5 million in 2021. 8-9 million in 2022. 15-25 million in 2025.
There is room for 2 to 4 companies making 5 million cars per year in 2025 and then 2 to 4 companies making 10 million cars per year in 2030. It will cost $20-40 billion to build the factories by 2025. $10+ for the R&D. Does each also have to eat $10-20B in losses as they scale? It will take another $20-40 billion to make/convert factories to get to 2030 scale.
If it is so simple to scale EV, then why does Volkswagen target 1.5 million cars per year in 2025 and GM 1 million? Tesla will have 1 million to 1.5 million cars per year in 2021. GM and Volkswagen have to spend $30-50B and 4 years to get to where Tesla is 2020-2021. Tesla continues to innovate.
Some of the China EV makers will have the government backstopping them with billions for factories.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/global-electric-car-sales-has-an-annualized-4-million-in-september.html
If Tesla maintains 20% global market share and has 90% of the profits from EV, then they are like Apple versus the Androids. Apple has almost all of the smartphone profits.
Tesla makes 26+% auto margin and growing. So they make $13000 on every $50000 car they sell. After $1 billion in quarterly operating expenses that is mostly profit.
They are raising another $5 billion today for 0.8% dilution. That is enough for them to start two more gigafactories for another 1 million cars per year in 2023.
Does GM-Volkswagen have over the air update? Do they have their own AI chip. Tesla is heading to 2nd and 3rd gen on the custom AI chip?
By 2023, Tesla will have rolled out most of the Battery day innovations. Half the cost of the batteries. Batteries part of structure. 70% lower cost to build out factories.
Tesla can race ahead on factories and new models and massive amounts of batteries because they have 500,000 EV/year profitably made and sold.
EV are not simpler to make really good. Tesla leads on the efficiency rating of batteries and drivetrain. kwh/miles/weight.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/teslas-huge-advantage-with-batteries-and-drive-train.htmlReplies: @unit472, @last straw, @Pericles, @anonlb
Here’s something to consider. A quartz wristwatch will keep better time than a $10,000 Rolex but people don’t buy watches or cars just for efficiency and economy. Same with motorcars. Those that can afford quality and design want it. An electric Porsche is not a 911. Never will be, never can be for the the same reason an electronic wristwatch will never be a Patek Phillipe even if you adorn it with a gold and gem encrusted wrist band.
You get government mandates out of the picture people will no more want electric cars than they want cheap watches or cellphones. Only the poor will want a battery powered car because they cannot afford the engineering and cost of a ICE that roars when it accelerates.
My personal hope is that we get a depression so that a lot of this fake and gay shit crashes and burns as it should.
They can fill up a Formula 1 car with 130 kilos of fuel in 10 seconds, unlikely they can do that in the foreseeable future in a Tesla, and gas has a much greater energy density than lithium batteries, plus electric cars can never make the engine and exhaust note that Formula 1 V10s and V12s make, or even normal late 90s Ferrari V12s.
I have seen different claims about how many miles an EV has to drive to make up for the extra emissions involved in producing batteries, over the life of the car its clearly cleaner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZws7kE3U5k
Motors and batteries from crashed Teslas end up being used by companies like Zero EV, pay close attention to the size of the batteries in their cars, the Mazda MX-5 has a 26kWh battery, about the same size as the battery In the Gen 1 Leaf, but batteries have improved so much 26kWh is now smaller than a MX-5 engine, also look at the size of the 53kWh battery they have built for a Porsche 911, its far smaller than the 53kWh battery that went into the original Tesla Roadster
The batteries from used 20 year old Teslas and other EVs will end up being used as home battery storage, its the easiest way to recycle batteries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNjUdTJjiNk
Right now the most interesting EV IMO is the Aptera, to begin with they won't sell many cars, but if they can stay around for a few years, they might see real growthReplies: @AnonFromTN
Every battery needs to be made first, so lithium needs to be mined and produced, with huge environmental damage. Every battery has limited life span, so in the end it must be disposed of. EV batteries are much greater than regular car batteries, contain a lot more toxic material, and therefore require a lot more energy to be used for recycling. Their recycling generates a lot more environmentally unfriendly products. Not to mention that electricity does not come from thin air spontaneously, it needs to be produced, and its production damages the environment regardless of the method.
I am talking about the fact that the sum total of environmental impact of EVs is very large. Naturally, “green” people do not think about that. They tend not to think about anything that is not spoon-fed to them by lugenpresse.
Plenty of studies have been done on the total environmental impact of EVs, if people don't put their thumb on the scales somewhere along the way, EVs generally win out in the end
2cents:
#1: Quality:
Go to the premium marques like BMW and sit inside their upper offerings (5/7 series) and then go to Tesla. The interior/build quality is okay, but not for that price-level.
Let’s not even talk about the luxury marques like Rolls-Royce, Bentley or flagship models like Toyota Century, AMG series.
#2: Cachet & Time:
Premium & luxury brands are the only ones, which have a truly global cachet. That cachet was build over a period of 50 years: 1910s to 1950s.
Does Tesla have that much time? Where is Tesla’s motorsport division/team? Remember that many customers even in the mid 1980s did not consider Audi a premium brand! Volkswagen had to throw money at Audi for quite a while until the late 1980s.
#3: Product-structure & technologies:
Tesla biggest problem: Premium brands like BMW actually make money from the midsize series, which benefit from the fullsize series’ reputation. Premium brands live off business-customers’ fleet leasing of those midsize cars.
High-end models have invidually a high margin, but the numbers alone cannot carry the R&D cost, platform cost and the whole company’s infrastructure. Gen-1 tech is trialed in the flagship models and the matured Gen-2 of that tech will go down to the lower-tier product. But at that time Gen-3 arrives for the flagship models. In case of VW right now it’s LED matrix for the volume models, while the Audi/Porsche can be ordered with Laser lights.
Will Tesla be able to continously bring down tech for their lower models while stay on the edge with the flaghship?
#4: Customers / Market nationalism:
All of E-Asian markets already have their premium cars/brands. Toyota’s Century/Lexus. Hyundai’s Genesis and China’s FAW/Hongqi (+ upstart brands like Nio). The local bigwigs/celebs/VIPs/SOE bosses will be under subtle pressure to drive the local brands.
Especially the Japanese old money, prideful 2nd gen well off Koreans see it as a matter of national pride and distinct class symbol.
There is a reason why Sony still makes smartphone, which are good but no longer cutting edge. Toshiba’s Dynabook can exist despite the low margin.
In case of China there is a new generation of well-off customers, whose parent/older relatives made it big in 1990s/2000s. Those are not quite old money, but they are not New Money. These are the core drivers for the Chinese premium/luxury brands in the next 3 decades.
The same applies to the European market. Even in the lower segment. The Skoda Octavia is overall the better MQB-model of VW, but many German customers still buy the Golf for a higher price.
This leaves Tesla with the North-American core-market & minor market like MENA, S-America and prolish New Money.
#5: Quantity has its’ quality:
Daimler Group -> 70 billion € over the next decade, VW Group -> already over 20 billion € etc.
VW Group’s first gen electric cars will arrive this/next year. Over 20 models over the next 3 years. First models are being delivered to the customers.
This massive product offensive with matured dealer-networks and long-established business-customer-relationship will be flexed.
#6: The heat from below/fire from the flanks:
e.g. Vietnam’s largest company Vingroup so far spent nearly 3 billion USD on an automotive brand – Vinfast. The factory & supplier-park in Haiphong cost 1,5billion USD . Personel-recruitment/training for another 300 million. It took them less 30 month to start delivering the first cars, which were licensed/re-skinned Opel Karl and BMW Series 5.
But the most important aspect: They got German engineering company EDAG and in addition hired a few hundred engineers in the US/Australia and spent just 800 mio USD & 12 months and now already have an fully-working electric drive-platform of their own. Prototype of their electric crossovers are already on the road.
Furthermore my contacts/friends in VN tell me that there is now heavy pressure on SOE/state-institutions to buy Vinfast for their fleets. Public tenders will be written in a way that only domestic companies and foreign companies with local production-sites can fullfill the requirement. Of course local insurers demand higher fees for foreign-assembled cars making the choise easier.
Side-note: Vinfast also sells electric scooters and buses.
The Turks have studied the Viets and have also launched their own brand – TOGG. Any middle-sized country with some emerging industrial base just need to mobilize 7-10 billion USD and then can enter the car-game.
The structure of the car-industry means that new players just need a good management/marketing/service to enter the game + backing by the government. Everything else can be bought off the shelf. From design to platforms.
I’ll expect similar moves in India and Indonesia from local tycoons.
Tesla as for now is ahead when it comes software + centralized data processing. It also has Big Man Elon in charge, but will that be enough? I don’t think so. It is currently extremely over-valutation will be brought back to a more sensible size.
Of course some older players might be also get crushed by Asian competition and changing of rules. My bet is that Stellantis won’t survive if they try to keep all brands alive. Lancia is already dead.
#1: Quality:
Go to the premium marques like BMW and sit inside their upper offerings (5/7 series) and then go to Tesla. The interior/build quality is okay, but not for that price-level.
Let's not even talk about the luxury marques like Rolls-Royce, Bentley or flagship models like Toyota Century, AMG series.
#2: Cachet & Time:
Premium & luxury brands are the only ones, which have a truly global cachet. That cachet was build over a period of 50 years: 1910s to 1950s.
Does Tesla have that much time? Where is Tesla's motorsport division/team? Remember that many customers even in the mid 1980s did not consider Audi a premium brand! Volkswagen had to throw money at Audi for quite a while until the late 1980s.
#3: Product-structure & technologies:
Tesla biggest problem: Premium brands like BMW actually make money from the midsize series, which benefit from the fullsize series' reputation. Premium brands live off business-customers' fleet leasing of those midsize cars.
High-end models have invidually a high margin, but the numbers alone cannot carry the R&D cost, platform cost and the whole company's infrastructure. Gen-1 tech is trialed in the flagship models and the matured Gen-2 of that tech will go down to the lower-tier product. But at that time Gen-3 arrives for the flagship models. In case of VW right now it's LED matrix for the volume models, while the Audi/Porsche can be ordered with Laser lights.
Will Tesla be able to continously bring down tech for their lower models while stay on the edge with the flaghship?
#4: Customers / Market nationalism:
All of E-Asian markets already have their premium cars/brands. Toyota's Century/Lexus. Hyundai's Genesis and China's FAW/Hongqi (+ upstart brands like Nio). The local bigwigs/celebs/VIPs/SOE bosses will be under subtle pressure to drive the local brands.
Especially the Japanese old money, prideful 2nd gen well off Koreans see it as a matter of national pride and distinct class symbol.
There is a reason why Sony still makes smartphone, which are good but no longer cutting edge. Toshiba's Dynabook can exist despite the low margin.
In case of China there is a new generation of well-off customers, whose parent/older relatives made it big in 1990s/2000s. Those are not quite old money, but they are not New Money. These are the core drivers for the Chinese premium/luxury brands in the next 3 decades.
The same applies to the European market. Even in the lower segment. The Skoda Octavia is overall the better MQB-model of VW, but many German customers still buy the Golf for a higher price.
This leaves Tesla with the North-American core-market & minor market like MENA, S-America and prolish New Money.
#5: Quantity has its' quality:
Daimler Group -> 70 billion € over the next decade, VW Group -> already over 20 billion € etc.
VW Group's first gen electric cars will arrive this/next year. Over 20 models over the next 3 years. First models are being delivered to the customers.
This massive product offensive with matured dealer-networks and long-established business-customer-relationship will be flexed.
#6: The heat from below/fire from the flanks:
e.g. Vietnam's largest company Vingroup so far spent nearly 3 billion USD on an automotive brand - Vinfast. The factory & supplier-park in Haiphong cost 1,5billion USD . Personel-recruitment/training for another 300 million. It took them less 30 month to start delivering the first cars, which were licensed/re-skinned Opel Karl and BMW Series 5.
But the most important aspect: They got German engineering company EDAG and in addition hired a few hundred engineers in the US/Australia and spent just 800 mio USD & 12 months and now already have an fully-working electric drive-platform of their own. Prototype of their electric crossovers are already on the road.
Furthermore my contacts/friends in VN tell me that there is now heavy pressure on SOE/state-institutions to buy Vinfast for their fleets. Public tenders will be written in a way that only domestic companies and foreign companies with local production-sites can fullfill the requirement. Of course local insurers demand higher fees for foreign-assembled cars making the choise easier.
Side-note: Vinfast also sells electric scooters and buses.
The Turks have studied the Viets and have also launched their own brand - TOGG. Any middle-sized country with some emerging industrial base just need to mobilize 7-10 billion USD and then can enter the car-game.
The structure of the car-industry means that new players just need a good management/marketing/service to enter the game + backing by the government. Everything else can be bought off the shelf. From design to platforms.
I'll expect similar moves in India and Indonesia from local tycoons.
Tesla as for now is ahead when it comes software + centralized data processing. It also has Big Man Elon in charge, but will that be enough? I don't think so. It is currently extremely over-valutation will be brought back to a more sensible size.
Of course some older players might be also get crushed by Asian competition and changing of rules. My bet is that Stellantis won't survive if they try to keep all brands alive. Lancia is already dead.Replies: @Blinky Bill
Thank you for this quality comment! You should post more often.
Well, twenty years ago we had the gigantic Dotcom Bubble…
A dozen years ago we had the gigantic Mortgage Bubble…
Isn’t it pretty obvious what we’re seeing right now on Wall Street, with Tesla merely being the most extreme example?
Was Theranos really worth $9 billion, which made Elizabeth Holmes the wealthiest woman in America? Probably not.
Was WeWork really worth $40 billion, and its eccentric/lunatic founder a business genius? Probably not.
I haven’t paid much attention to the details of Tesla, but from what I’ve read in the papers all its profits come from pollution-credits. I wouldn’t be surprised if within a year or two it’s lost 90-98% of its current market value…
***
It is now a game of factories and also a game of self-driving. A profitable good range EV is the second poker ante and before that is having a desirable EV design. The Tesla Roadster was desirable. The Tesla Model S and X are desirable and profitable on single car basis. Model 3 took the whole company to profitability at scale.
Making 100k-200k EVs/year and losing $1-4billion per year is one thing but what will it take to be a major-let alone dominant player in 2025. 2030?
Volkswagen is losing $4500 for every ID3 they sell. the eGolf was a relative failure. Volkswagen not expecting to make money until 2025. If they are losing $4500 per car then selling 1.1 million costs them $5 billion. GM is selling its Bolts at 12k below MSRP and the Bolts had a starting price that was not profitable for GM. Tesla has been selling all of its cars without spending $5B per year on ads.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/
Volkswagen cannot scale (convert gas car factories to EV factories) until they are making profitable EVs. They can endure pain to be in the game at 200k-500k/year but they dare not convert 10 factories to get 5 million cars per year in 2023-2025.
World 3 million EV/year in 2020 (Growing 30% per year but signs of accelerating to 50-70% per year as EV get more desirable than combustion cars). Maybe 5 million in 2021. 8-9 million in 2022. 15-25 million in 2025.
There is room for 2 to 4 companies making 5 million cars per year in 2025 and then 2 to 4 companies making 10 million cars per year in 2030. It will cost $20-40 billion to build the factories by 2025. $10+ for the R&D. Does each also have to eat $10-20B in losses as they scale? It will take another $20-40 billion to make/convert factories to get to 2030 scale.
If it is so simple to scale EV, then why does Volkswagen target 1.5 million cars per year in 2025 and GM 1 million? Tesla will have 1 million to 1.5 million cars per year in 2021. GM and Volkswagen have to spend $30-50B and 4 years to get to where Tesla is 2020-2021. Tesla continues to innovate.
Some of the China EV makers will have the government backstopping them with billions for factories.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/global-electric-car-sales-has-an-annualized-4-million-in-september.html
If Tesla maintains 20% global market share and has 90% of the profits from EV, then they are like Apple versus the Androids. Apple has almost all of the smartphone profits.
Tesla makes 26+% auto margin and growing. So they make $13000 on every $50000 car they sell. After $1 billion in quarterly operating expenses that is mostly profit.
They are raising another $5 billion today for 0.8% dilution. That is enough for them to start two more gigafactories for another 1 million cars per year in 2023.
Does GM-Volkswagen have over the air update? Do they have their own AI chip. Tesla is heading to 2nd and 3rd gen on the custom AI chip?
By 2023, Tesla will have rolled out most of the Battery day innovations. Half the cost of the batteries. Batteries part of structure. 70% lower cost to build out factories.
Tesla can race ahead on factories and new models and massive amounts of batteries because they have 500,000 EV/year profitably made and sold.
EV are not simpler to make really good. Tesla leads on the efficiency rating of batteries and drivetrain. kwh/miles/weight.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/teslas-huge-advantage-with-batteries-and-drive-train.htmlReplies: @unit472, @last straw, @Pericles, @anonlb
I have an inkling that Tesla may go belly up someday and be bought by some Chinese company, if they keep buying expensive cobalt containing batteries. Cobalt will be a neck-bottle element in the near future.
In the meantime, it’s Chinese battery companies that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies.
While the pouch or prismatic battery cells on average cost more than $200 per kWh in 2019 and Tesla’s cylindrical cell battery pack dropped to $158.27 per kilowatt-hour last year, in comparison, the cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh, CATL’s low-cobalt NMC battery packs are close to $100/kWh.. CATL is building a $ 2 billion battery factory in Germany are in cooperation with Tesla to build EV batteries.
https://pushevs.com/2020/05/18/catl-cobalt-free-battery-cells-are-already-below-60-euros-per-kwh/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC
Tesla Battery Day? SVolt May Ruin The Party With Cobalt-Free Li-Ion Battery (with 1.2 million km, or approximately 750,000 miles, warranty). Svolt will also build a battery factory in Germany soon.
https://insideevs.com/news/424185/svolt-cobalt-free-li-ion-battery/
In other news,
GAC to test its “super-fast-charging battery” in production vehicles, which can charge to 85% of full capacity in 8 minutes.
CATL’s 2-Million Kilometer (a lifespan of approximately 1.24 miles) Battery Has No Connection To Tesla
https://insideevs.com/news/428508/catl-2-million-km-battery-not-tesla/
A dozen years ago we had the gigantic Mortgage Bubble...
Isn't it pretty obvious what we're seeing right now on Wall Street, with Tesla merely being the most extreme example?
Was Theranos really worth $9 billion, which made Elizabeth Holmes the wealthiest woman in America? Probably not.
Was WeWork really worth $40 billion, and its eccentric/lunatic founder a business genius? Probably not.
I haven't paid much attention to the details of Tesla, but from what I've read in the papers all its profits come from pollution-credits. I wouldn't be surprised if within a year or two it's lost 90-98% of its current market value...Replies: @last straw
I think Tesla had 3 consecutive profitable quarters so far.
Remember a few months ago when Tesla became eligible for the S&P 500, and everyone was surprised that the S&P board rejected them? I assumed it was because they were nervous that if Tesla were included and then lost 98% of its market value, the S&P Index would be devastated. But the pressure became too great, and a few weeks ago, they finally gave in.
People seem to have very short memories and have completely forgotten the 2000 Dotcom Bubble and the 2008 Mortgage Bubble. In those bubbles, companies worth a hundred billion disappeared, but this time the victims may be closer to the trillion dollar mark.Replies: @Pericles
I am talking about the fact that the sum total of environmental impact of EVs is very large. Naturally, “green” people do not think about that. They tend not to think about anything that is not spoon-fed to them by lugenpresse.Replies: @(((They))) Live, @Dmitry
I am talking about the fact that the sum total of environmental impact of EVs is very large. Naturally, “green” people do not think about that. They tend not to think about anything that is not spoon-fed to them by lugenpresse.
Plenty of studies have been done on the total environmental impact of EVs, if people don’t put their thumb on the scales somewhere along the way, EVs generally win out in the end
Fracking also causes a lot of pollution, so does coal mining and burning coal.
Well, I think the articles in the papers have emphasized that all of Tesla’s profits come from selling huge governmental Carbon tax-credits, without which Tesla would still have massive operating losses. If all your profits come from the government giving you huge amounts of free money, I wonder if your business is really all that successful.
Remember a few months ago when Tesla became eligible for the S&P 500, and everyone was surprised that the S&P board rejected them? I assumed it was because they were nervous that if Tesla were included and then lost 98% of its market value, the S&P Index would be devastated. But the pressure became too great, and a few weeks ago, they finally gave in.
People seem to have very short memories and have completely forgotten the 2000 Dotcom Bubble and the 2008 Mortgage Bubble. In those bubbles, companies worth a hundred billion disappeared, but this time the victims may be closer to the trillion dollar mark.
There was a lot of chatter about self-driving cars up to about a year ago, but it seems like reality set in and everybody had to go back to the drawing board.
***
It is now a game of factories and also a game of self-driving. A profitable good range EV is the second poker ante and before that is having a desirable EV design. The Tesla Roadster was desirable. The Tesla Model S and X are desirable and profitable on single car basis. Model 3 took the whole company to profitability at scale.
Making 100k-200k EVs/year and losing $1-4billion per year is one thing but what will it take to be a major-let alone dominant player in 2025. 2030?
Volkswagen is losing $4500 for every ID3 they sell. the eGolf was a relative failure. Volkswagen not expecting to make money until 2025. If they are losing $4500 per car then selling 1.1 million costs them $5 billion. GM is selling its Bolts at 12k below MSRP and the Bolts had a starting price that was not profitable for GM. Tesla has been selling all of its cars without spending $5B per year on ads.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/
Volkswagen cannot scale (convert gas car factories to EV factories) until they are making profitable EVs. They can endure pain to be in the game at 200k-500k/year but they dare not convert 10 factories to get 5 million cars per year in 2023-2025.
World 3 million EV/year in 2020 (Growing 30% per year but signs of accelerating to 50-70% per year as EV get more desirable than combustion cars). Maybe 5 million in 2021. 8-9 million in 2022. 15-25 million in 2025.
There is room for 2 to 4 companies making 5 million cars per year in 2025 and then 2 to 4 companies making 10 million cars per year in 2030. It will cost $20-40 billion to build the factories by 2025. $10+ for the R&D. Does each also have to eat $10-20B in losses as they scale? It will take another $20-40 billion to make/convert factories to get to 2030 scale.
If it is so simple to scale EV, then why does Volkswagen target 1.5 million cars per year in 2025 and GM 1 million? Tesla will have 1 million to 1.5 million cars per year in 2021. GM and Volkswagen have to spend $30-50B and 4 years to get to where Tesla is 2020-2021. Tesla continues to innovate.
Some of the China EV makers will have the government backstopping them with billions for factories.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/global-electric-car-sales-has-an-annualized-4-million-in-september.html
If Tesla maintains 20% global market share and has 90% of the profits from EV, then they are like Apple versus the Androids. Apple has almost all of the smartphone profits.
Tesla makes 26+% auto margin and growing. So they make $13000 on every $50000 car they sell. After $1 billion in quarterly operating expenses that is mostly profit.
They are raising another $5 billion today for 0.8% dilution. That is enough for them to start two more gigafactories for another 1 million cars per year in 2023.
Does GM-Volkswagen have over the air update? Do they have their own AI chip. Tesla is heading to 2nd and 3rd gen on the custom AI chip?
By 2023, Tesla will have rolled out most of the Battery day innovations. Half the cost of the batteries. Batteries part of structure. 70% lower cost to build out factories.
Tesla can race ahead on factories and new models and massive amounts of batteries because they have 500,000 EV/year profitably made and sold.
EV are not simpler to make really good. Tesla leads on the efficiency rating of batteries and drivetrain. kwh/miles/weight.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/teslas-huge-advantage-with-batteries-and-drive-train.htmlReplies: @unit472, @last straw, @Pericles, @anonlb
In Sweden, and thus assuming elsewhere too, I get the impression that government is pushing pretty hard for EVs, with both carrots and whips provided aplenty. We’re so incredibly climate smart and all that, you know. So even if all the magnificent technology to be provided in the future turns out to be a dud, that would at least provide a manufactured groundswell for EVs.
Remember a few months ago when Tesla became eligible for the S&P 500, and everyone was surprised that the S&P board rejected them? I assumed it was because they were nervous that if Tesla were included and then lost 98% of its market value, the S&P Index would be devastated. But the pressure became too great, and a few weeks ago, they finally gave in.
People seem to have very short memories and have completely forgotten the 2000 Dotcom Bubble and the 2008 Mortgage Bubble. In those bubbles, companies worth a hundred billion disappeared, but this time the victims may be closer to the trillion dollar mark.Replies: @Pericles
On the bright side, just a trillion doesn’t seem so bad these days.
You get government mandates out of the picture people will no more want electric cars than they want cheap watches or cellphones. Only the poor will want a battery powered car because they cannot afford the engineering and cost of a ICE that roars when it accelerates.Replies: @Dreadilk, @YetAnotherAnon
I hate EVs but if governments choose to push them as some are doing now then Musk’s play makes sense. It seems most people excited about EVs are banking on this.
My personal hope is that we get a depression so that a lot of this fake and gay shit crashes and burns as it should.
Never thought of getting a Tesla, and was a bit put off after a semi-famous prof that knows me told me that she and her husband are on a waiting list to get a Tesla. They are big SJWs, and although I can spend a lot of time talking to them, like I can with most people, it’s still a bit dicey to make sure I don’t say anything political, so that automatically lowered the Tesla’s value for me and I will actively avoid it. Still, I’m guessing there are so many people like them in the US, that Elon has a captive market in that country. After that conversations, the whole Tesla culture and the types of people who buy it started putting me off, so I can’t claim to be objective on the company. And later I saw the following video too:
Lately I heard about a new electric Nissan minivan, that not only can be plugged in (apparently the latest models), but you can fill it with gas and it will burn it in a motor that acts as a generator and fill up the battery that is the drive motor. And it’s crazy efficient for each liter of gas. The whole thing sounded so funny, that I’m thinking of getting it. Unfortunately I’m loath to get rid of the old car while it’s still functional and it’s Japanese engineering as well, so by the time I’m forced to make a choice of what to buy, I’ll find out if Elon won or if the US stock market collapsed along with Tesla.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLxPAwIeL0w
Lately I heard about a new electric Nissan minivan, that not only can be plugged in (apparently the latest models), but you can fill it with gas and it will burn it in a motor that acts as a generator and fill up the battery that is the drive motor. And it's crazy efficient for each liter of gas. The whole thing sounded so funny, that I'm thinking of getting it. Unfortunately I'm loath to get rid of the old car while it's still functional and it's Japanese engineering as well, so by the time I'm forced to make a choice of what to buy, I'll find out if Elon won or if the US stock market collapsed along with Tesla.Replies: @AnonFromTN
That’s my problem, as well. I know some people who own Tesla, and I know that their political and environmental views are unbalanced and untrustworthy, to put it mildly. So, in my mind EVs in general and Tesla in particular are associated with people I cannot trust an inch. I am not sure that this is not objective. As Russian saying puts it, “tell me who are your friends, and I tell you what you are”.
I think someone tweeted a short time ago about a conspiracy theory (?) regarding Elon Musk. He was funded by US military and all of the technological developments will help US army to continue exerting its influence across the world or something like this. I am not sure whether it was you or not but this might explain his twitter activity as well. There is no way you can tweet like him if you don’t have some sort of guarantees.
Are you referring to SpaceX and its presumed involved with Rods of God project?
I don’t remember such a thing but most of the innovations have direct application for the military (One might say that it was requested by the US military.). As I said, I can’t recall most of the details but it was pretty interesting one.
so nobody here saw battery day?
addresses most of the questions posed here about Tesla.
i was extremely impressed by this presentation. one of my best friends is a materials science PHD from MIT, and he had the same reaction. as did most of his associates. i don’t think the average investor can really even understand the big picture effect this stuff will have, which is why TSLA stock did not go up right after Battery Day. however, the takeaways:
1) battery tech advantage over other companies. was about 5 years ahead due to stuff like octovalve, will be 10 years ahead soon due to 4680 battery with no tabs.
2) environmental damage. complete redesign of battery production to eliminate lithium strip mining step and acid solvent step. elimination of cobalt for nickel.
3) battery volume production. complete redesign of 100 year old factory paradigm where maybe 8% of a factory volume does work. GW production moving into the TW production range once new, super high density test plant opens, where 30% of the volume of the factory does work. velocity of the assembly line, the important metric, increased significantly.
4) body casting. will reduce car production down to 2 huge aluminum castings, which will be an absolute, not relative, advantage over all vehicle manufacturers, not just electric vehicle builders. Tesla has the largest car casting machine in the world.
disclosure: i manage about 3 million dollars in assets, and have a $200,000 dollar position in TSLA. based on several years of fundamental analysis, i made a big bet on them in june, which has since tripled. i only wish i had bought more back then. i continue to steadily buy more TSLA, though slowly.
one of my main resources for industry research is this guy, a former Ford production manager and 40 year car manufacturing veteran:
https://www.youtube.com/c/MunroLive/videos
if you really want to know about Tesla stuff, this is the guy to watch. earlier this year he disassembled a Tesla Model Y down to the nuts and bolts, on stream.
What do you expect Teslas market share to be in 10-20 years?
Tesla does have a strong brand value currently. This will likely manifest in substantial market shares especially in anglophone countries. Being an American company, Tesla will defintly have an edge over German, Chinese and Japanese automakers in the US market.
I think market shares around (below) would be possible.
USA - 35%
Canada - 35%
United Kingdom - 25%
EU - 15%
China - 5%
India - 10%
Mexico - 15%
No matter how successfull Tesla is, it is going to have competitors. Multiple factors could impact Tesla share value. Will Tesla at one point begin paying dividends? When Tesla reaches a ceiling for marketshare or begin to lose marketshare, how will that impact the stock?
My take is that someday Tesla's stock is going to decline relativ to it's competitors.Replies: @Shortsword
one of my main resources for industry research is this guy, a former Ford production manager and 40 year car manufacturing veteran:
https://www.youtube.com/c/MunroLive/videos
if you really want to know about Tesla stuff, this is the guy to watch. earlier this year he disassembled a Tesla Model Y down to the nuts and bolts, on stream.Replies: @AnonFromTN, @(((They))) Live, @Rattus Norwegius
As American saying puts it, “there is a sucker born every minute”.
***
It is now a game of factories and also a game of self-driving. A profitable good range EV is the second poker ante and before that is having a desirable EV design. The Tesla Roadster was desirable. The Tesla Model S and X are desirable and profitable on single car basis. Model 3 took the whole company to profitability at scale.
Making 100k-200k EVs/year and losing $1-4billion per year is one thing but what will it take to be a major-let alone dominant player in 2025. 2030?
Volkswagen is losing $4500 for every ID3 they sell. the eGolf was a relative failure. Volkswagen not expecting to make money until 2025. If they are losing $4500 per car then selling 1.1 million costs them $5 billion. GM is selling its Bolts at 12k below MSRP and the Bolts had a starting price that was not profitable for GM. Tesla has been selling all of its cars without spending $5B per year on ads.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/
Volkswagen cannot scale (convert gas car factories to EV factories) until they are making profitable EVs. They can endure pain to be in the game at 200k-500k/year but they dare not convert 10 factories to get 5 million cars per year in 2023-2025.
World 3 million EV/year in 2020 (Growing 30% per year but signs of accelerating to 50-70% per year as EV get more desirable than combustion cars). Maybe 5 million in 2021. 8-9 million in 2022. 15-25 million in 2025.
There is room for 2 to 4 companies making 5 million cars per year in 2025 and then 2 to 4 companies making 10 million cars per year in 2030. It will cost $20-40 billion to build the factories by 2025. $10+ for the R&D. Does each also have to eat $10-20B in losses as they scale? It will take another $20-40 billion to make/convert factories to get to 2030 scale.
If it is so simple to scale EV, then why does Volkswagen target 1.5 million cars per year in 2025 and GM 1 million? Tesla will have 1 million to 1.5 million cars per year in 2021. GM and Volkswagen have to spend $30-50B and 4 years to get to where Tesla is 2020-2021. Tesla continues to innovate.
Some of the China EV makers will have the government backstopping them with billions for factories.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/global-electric-car-sales-has-an-annualized-4-million-in-september.html
If Tesla maintains 20% global market share and has 90% of the profits from EV, then they are like Apple versus the Androids. Apple has almost all of the smartphone profits.
Tesla makes 26+% auto margin and growing. So they make $13000 on every $50000 car they sell. After $1 billion in quarterly operating expenses that is mostly profit.
They are raising another $5 billion today for 0.8% dilution. That is enough for them to start two more gigafactories for another 1 million cars per year in 2023.
Does GM-Volkswagen have over the air update? Do they have their own AI chip. Tesla is heading to 2nd and 3rd gen on the custom AI chip?
By 2023, Tesla will have rolled out most of the Battery day innovations. Half the cost of the batteries. Batteries part of structure. 70% lower cost to build out factories.
Tesla can race ahead on factories and new models and massive amounts of batteries because they have 500,000 EV/year profitably made and sold.
EV are not simpler to make really good. Tesla leads on the efficiency rating of batteries and drivetrain. kwh/miles/weight.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/teslas-huge-advantage-with-batteries-and-drive-train.htmlReplies: @unit472, @last straw, @Pericles, @anonlb
My 2c: EVs with replaceable battery will become mainsteream because:
1. replacing empty battery with charged one will take just two minutes in appropriate ‘battery station’. It’s simple more convinient for most people.
2. EV can be sold without battery, you will lease one from ‘battery station’. This will put initial cost of such EVs below classic or EVs with embeded battery.
3. In few years you will get new improved batery models in ‘battery station’ wich can provide extended range for you EV.
4. You will never wear out your battery or in case of battery mailfunction give your precious EV for recyclyng at fraction of cost.
If this becomes true, competition in EV market will push mainstream models profit margins far below those profitable for Tesla.
I don’t know if this goes here or in the open thread
1. replacing empty battery with charged one will take just two minutes in appropriate 'battery station'. It's simple more convinient for most people.
2. EV can be sold without battery, you will lease one from 'battery station'. This will put initial cost of such EVs below classic or EVs with embeded battery.
3. In few years you will get new improved batery models in 'battery station' wich can provide extended range for you EV.
4. You will never wear out your battery or in case of battery mailfunction give your precious EV for recyclyng at fraction of cost.
If this becomes true, competition in EV market will push mainstream models profit margins far below those profitable for Tesla.Replies: @(((They))) Live
Battery swapping has already been tried and failed, people don’t really like the idea
Battery replacement/swapping requires wide and reliable network of 'battery stations' and battery standardization in order to become popular, but in my opinion this will be solved in next few years. Many petrol stations will join because this model is more profitable for them: they can serve more customers with EVs with swappable battery and charge more for service than customers with EVs with embeded battery.
one of my main resources for industry research is this guy, a former Ford production manager and 40 year car manufacturing veteran:
https://www.youtube.com/c/MunroLive/videos
if you really want to know about Tesla stuff, this is the guy to watch. earlier this year he disassembled a Tesla Model Y down to the nuts and bolts, on stream.Replies: @AnonFromTN, @(((They))) Live, @Rattus Norwegius
Take your profits while you can, I like EVs and Tesla but its clearly way over valued, be careful
NIO managed to survive and keeps trynig, https://www.nio.com/baas
Battery replacement/swapping requires wide and reliable network of ‘battery stations’ and battery standardization in order to become popular, but in my opinion this will be solved in next few years. Many petrol stations will join because this model is more profitable for them: they can serve more customers with EVs with swappable battery and charge more for service than customers with EVs with embeded battery.
I think there’s just not yet enough usage of electric cars for good infrastructure for it, but once there’s enough usage for electric vehicles, the infrastructure and general preference for battery swapping will follow.
I doubt electric cars are less environmentally friendly than ICE cars. At the very least, they are better for the air in the cities, which is of primary importance.
Tesla is not an auto company. It is a tech company. Also gets a heavy lift being associated with SpaceX. Elon musk is basically hyping the crap out of his companies, stocks are soaring. It will continue till it doesn’t.
I also think Amazon is over valued, just not as much as Tesla or SpaceX. I personally think stock price corrections would not happen till dollar is no longer the reserve currency. Small, mini correction would always occur from time to time.
Inadvertently, you hit the nail on the head. EVs are about shifting the pollution from cities, where libtards drive their cars, to boondocks where deplorables live (electricity production, partially battery production and disposal), and to the third world, where aborigines live (lithium strip-mining, partially battery production and disposal). Naturally, hypocritical libtards would never acknowledge that, putting forth false narrative of “saving the Earth” and suchlike.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds&t=33m30s
addresses most of the questions posed here about Tesla.
i was extremely impressed by this presentation. one of my best friends is a materials science PHD from MIT, and he had the same reaction. as did most of his associates. i don't think the average investor can really even understand the big picture effect this stuff will have, which is why TSLA stock did not go up right after Battery Day. however, the takeaways:
1) battery tech advantage over other companies. was about 5 years ahead due to stuff like octovalve, will be 10 years ahead soon due to 4680 battery with no tabs.
2) environmental damage. complete redesign of battery production to eliminate lithium strip mining step and acid solvent step. elimination of cobalt for nickel.
3) battery volume production. complete redesign of 100 year old factory paradigm where maybe 8% of a factory volume does work. GW production moving into the TW production range once new, super high density test plant opens, where 30% of the volume of the factory does work. velocity of the assembly line, the important metric, increased significantly.
4) body casting. will reduce car production down to 2 huge aluminum castings, which will be an absolute, not relative, advantage over all vehicle manufacturers, not just electric vehicle builders. Tesla has the largest car casting machine in the world.Replies: @Dreadilk
All of these things are easy to promise but hard to produce.
Well expressed by an American saying “talk is cheap”.
Drilling for oil and fracking does not pollute? Tailpipe emissions or emissions from coal plants does not pollute?
Mining for lithium, cobalt, etc., used in EV batteries also pollutes, as well as battery disposal.
The question is, if we take into account all processes involved, what pollutes more per mile traveled: traditional ICE cars or EVs? I’ve seen calculations giving both possible answers.Replies: @128
Drilling for oil pollutes, fracking pollutes a lot more per unit of oil obtained than traditional drilling and extraction. Tailpipe emissions also pollute, as does electricity production using coal, oil, and natural gas. Arguably, nuclear power plants generate the least pollution per unit of electric energy produced, but it is still non-zero.
Mining for lithium, cobalt, etc., used in EV batteries also pollutes, as well as battery disposal.
The question is, if we take into account all processes involved, what pollutes more per mile traveled: traditional ICE cars or EVs? I’ve seen calculations giving both possible answers.
Mining for lithium, cobalt, etc., used in EV batteries also pollutes, as well as battery disposal.
The question is, if we take into account all processes involved, what pollutes more per mile traveled: traditional ICE cars or EVs? I’ve seen calculations giving both possible answers.Replies: @128
Are you accounting for pollution in countries where most vehicles use diesel?
You get government mandates out of the picture people will no more want electric cars than they want cheap watches or cellphones. Only the poor will want a battery powered car because they cannot afford the engineering and cost of a ICE that roars when it accelerates.Replies: @Dreadilk, @YetAnotherAnon
“A quartz wristwatch will keep better time than a $10,000 Rolex but people don’t buy watches or cars just for efficiency and economy. Same with motorcars. “
That goes both ways. A Tesla says “I’m pretty wealthy, and I care about the environment” – whether it’s actually that green is neither here nor there. A Model S is definitely what used to be called a “fanny magnet” in the UK – if you’re a young man with £1,000 a month to spare. Do ladies care about what’s under the bonnet?
Same with iPhones – a £200 Android phone will do pretty much the same thing that a £900 iPhone will, but people buy the brand. And as things like houses become more and more unaffordable, more people get comfort from the shiny toy that they can afford.
How long the iPhone brand can last is the question. 15 years ago it was the Blackberry. Admittedly the iPhone has lasted over a decade.
I am talking about the fact that the sum total of environmental impact of EVs is very large. Naturally, “green” people do not think about that. They tend not to think about anything that is not spoon-fed to them by lugenpresse.Replies: @(((They))) Live, @Dmitry
This shouldn’t be true, as the electric vehicle can be multiple times more energy efficient than the model with the internal combustion engine (mainly deriving from the energy conversion that occurs at the power station).
However, the environmental improvement (especially on our lungs), will vary a lot between countries. For example, in China or Poland where coal power station are predominant, then increasing electricity demand is not necessarily going to be improving the air quality citizens’ breath.
There’s also another issue in relation to brake and tyre dust, which is one of the main contributors of pollution that damages human health inside cities. Here electric vehicles with large batteries are often increased weight compared to internal combustion vehicles, and the increase in weight will contribute to increasing of emission of brake and tyre dust forms of air pollution.
Here can depend on marginal decision-making in the country – if increased demand on electricity created by EVs could encourage construction of a coal or nuclear power station (latter is most polluting thousands of years into the future, and almost impractically expensive to reduce such hazard) by a country that they would not otherwise build (without EVs), then it’s possible that EVs could increase other potential dangers to citizens. But it would be a result of the effect of an additional decision by the authorities (and less dangerous energy sources now can be cheaper than those options).
However, in general, increasing EVs will reduce the emission of particulates and NOx inside the cities, so we would expect improvement in peoples’ health by reduction of air pollution. A more likely downside could be if increased weight of battery-heavy vehicles could increase emission of tyre and brake dust.
one of my main resources for industry research is this guy, a former Ford production manager and 40 year car manufacturing veteran:
https://www.youtube.com/c/MunroLive/videos
if you really want to know about Tesla stuff, this is the guy to watch. earlier this year he disassembled a Tesla Model Y down to the nuts and bolts, on stream.Replies: @AnonFromTN, @(((They))) Live, @Rattus Norwegius
Speaking as someone that has 0$ invested in Tesla stock.
What do you expect Teslas market share to be in 10-20 years?
Tesla does have a strong brand value currently. This will likely manifest in substantial market shares especially in anglophone countries. Being an American company, Tesla will defintly have an edge over German, Chinese and Japanese automakers in the US market.
I think market shares around (below) would be possible.
USA – 35%
Canada – 35%
United Kingdom – 25%
EU – 15%
China – 5%
India – 10%
Mexico – 15%
No matter how successfull Tesla is, it is going to have competitors. Multiple factors could impact Tesla share value. Will Tesla at one point begin paying dividends? When Tesla reaches a ceiling for marketshare or begin to lose marketshare, how will that impact the stock?
My take is that someday Tesla’s stock is going to decline relativ to it’s competitors.
What do you expect Teslas market share to be in 10-20 years?
Tesla does have a strong brand value currently. This will likely manifest in substantial market shares especially in anglophone countries. Being an American company, Tesla will defintly have an edge over German, Chinese and Japanese automakers in the US market.
I think market shares around (below) would be possible.
USA - 35%
Canada - 35%
United Kingdom - 25%
EU - 15%
China - 5%
India - 10%
Mexico - 15%
No matter how successfull Tesla is, it is going to have competitors. Multiple factors could impact Tesla share value. Will Tesla at one point begin paying dividends? When Tesla reaches a ceiling for marketshare or begin to lose marketshare, how will that impact the stock?
My take is that someday Tesla's stock is going to decline relativ to it's competitors.Replies: @Shortsword
That sounds feasible. But it’s also feasible it will be 0%. Maybe not in 10 years but 20 years is a lot of time. Competitors is catching up which means Tesla is increasingly less defined by having the best performance and instead more by having a strong brand. That can die quick and Tesla doesn’t have the hundreds of billions in net assets like Apple does.