RSS
H/t Eduard-456.
Navalny has accepted Strelkov’s call for a debate from June 15. Get hype? At any rate, this is probably the closest things to politics that has happened in Russia this year.
There are going to be the main topics of discussion in the debate next week, which may be hosted by Echo of Moscow:
- How can Navalny beat corruption, if he’s President?
- His position on Russia’s Western partners?
- What is he going to do about Crimea and the Donbass?
This has been met with general surprise from all quarters.
The former commander of the LDNR militias is as much an object of hatred for Russian liberals – Navalny’s core constituency – as he is an idol for Russian nationalists.
Famous Sputnik i Pogrom designed banner from 2014 that still adorns many pro-Novorossiya sites.
As such, many Russian liberals and Ukrainian nationalists (but I repeat myself) are already squealing and kvetching about Navalny agreeing to appear with the “war criminal” Girkin.
One need only read some of the top responses to Navalny’s Facebook post announcing the debate to get a flavor of their fury:
- Pavel Khmelnytskyi: You guys are so cool in Russia… a debate between a Presidential candidate and an international terrorist. On the right path!
- Denis Zatsepin: Alexey, I’m a strong supporter of yours, but in this case I consider it a mistake to appear in the same frame as a bandit and killer. Debates with him are only possible in the form of interrogations about his war mongering, murders, illegal arms transfers, mercenary work.
- Alexey Karpov: A great opportunity to publicly disavow your phrase that “Crimea is not a sandwich” [i.e., as an object to be haggled over]. And if you fail to do this, I will consider the ensuing crash of your political career to be perfectly justified.
That said, there is a logic to Navalny appearing with Strelkov.
The only half-way conceivable way in which the Putin government could be overthrown would be through an overarching alliance between liberals and nationalists, as in the Ukraine itself in 2014, or in Serbia in 2000.
Navalny could either comfortably occupy the “liberal niche” that constitutes no more than 10% of the Russian electorate – the one that Prokhorov filled in 2012 – or he could try to convince the patriotic-nationalist crowd to sign up with him, which would cut into Putin’s own support base.
The price of his gamble is the risk of alienating his diehard liberal supporters, and consequently fading away into the limelight. Then again, as pro-Donbass blogger El Murid points out, there is, in any case, only so much fuel left in Navalny’s anti-corruption engine; the engine on which he rose to prominence. After the film about Medvedev, one can hardly generate any political excitement over exposing the corrupt machinations of one more CEO of a state firm or regional governor; everybody is waiting for the “Big Film” starring “The Main Hero.” Anything else would be a let-down. After the failure of the June 12 protests, one can make a good case that Navalny needs to do something bold and unexpected to turn around a negative trend in publicity and get people talking about him again – and going head to head against Strelkov is perhaps not the worst idea.
However, this is going to be an opportunity for the patriotic/nationalist crowd to make their mark as well.
Navalny, at least, enjoys access to Gazprom-funded Echo of Moscow and TV Rain. Since returning from the Donbass, Strelkov has been blacklisted from appearing on federal MSM – a not atypical fate for repatriated war heroes with harsh words for the leaders who “abandoned” their cause. Shorn of media resources – no radio or TV mass media to speak of, their main website blocked, and reliant on blogs and social networks to spread their messages – this will be a good opportunity for nationalists to remind Russians that there are choices beyond Putin and Navalny.
The main danger for them is that Strelkov performs poorly. Although he has a poor grasp of issues beyond his pet theme of corruption, as demonstrated in his recent interview with Sobchak, Navalny more than makes up for it as a demagogue. And whereas Strelkov might be an inspirational battlefield commander, his sartorial style and rhetorical skills… leave much to be desired.
�
Another interesting question is to what extent this debate has been cleared with the Kremlin.
The ideal outcome for Kremlin Inc. would be for Navalny to destroy Strelkov, a minor nuisance for them, while affirming his pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian positions on Crimea and the Donbass (that is, a second referendum in the former, and withdrawal of support from the latter). This would also close off any lingering prospects for a liberal-nationalist alliance against Putin.
In this scenario, it is even feasible that Navalny would be allowed to run in the Presidential elections. Without any significant support from the patriotic-nationalist camp, Navalny would be more or less safely bounded at a maximum of 10-15% of the vote, while the fact of his participation in the electoral process – as the most prominent figure in the non-systemic opposition – would serve to “legitimize” Putin’s inevitable victory in the West.
Best of all, there is probably nothing quite as good for burnishing one’s questionable credentials as a Russian nationalist or even patriot for the domestic audience as running against an outright Ukrainian nationalist and Western representative.
English
Arabic
Chinese (Simplified)
Dutch
French
German
Hebrew
Hindi
Italian
Persian
Portuguese
Russian
Spanish
Swedish
I would say it was pretty disgraceful for Strelkov to share a stage with an avowed traitor and western running dog. But then Strelkov’s own oppositional posturing has got more and more outrageous as the reasons for it have disappeared. As always, things are not what they seem and resemble professional wrestling more than an honest sporting contest.
It is a lot of more disgraceful how the Kremlin handles the Russian opposition, banning SiP, but letting Navalny cause more trouble to others just because they do not want a credible opposition against them.
Like Anatoly said, it’s the closest thing that Russia has to politics right now. There are important national issues that the Kremlin (and Russia’s state TV) refuses to adress. So, perhaps, Strelkov-Navalny will? We’ll see, might be worth a try.
Probability of this event P(E)—> O. This is not to mention that there are nationalists and then there are nationalists. Strelkov has a sect of followers. In general, this whole circus will be a freak show such as their Committee of whatever December (after Nicholas II Decree in 1916 or 15, whatever). Judging by one of the ideologues of this “nationalist” movement, said Prosvirnin, chances are not very good of any real political impact, let alone (in a highly unlikely case of getting to power) being able to competently manage such country and such economy as Russia.
I find it embarrassing that in the 21st century our country is still being governed in a feudal way, with so much power concentrated in the hands of one man, and no clear mechanism for replacing this person (there are rumors that Putin will appoint one of his bodyguards as his successor -WTF!).
Russia needs to develop modern politics and modern political institutions ASAP. Strelkov-Navalny debate may be a small step in this direction, so we should probably refrain from ridiculing them too much. The Kremlin on the other hand is doing its outmost to keep Russia feudal. For this they deserve contempt.Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
So, because Navalny doesn’t support continuing military aid to proxys and other Russian Mir missfits in the Donbas, and re-staging a less phoney plebiscite in Crimea, he’s a ‘Ukrainain nationalist and Western representative’? I wonder what he needs to do to be labeled a ‘Junta Nazi’, as most Ukrainians already are?
I’m wondering Anatoly, since Strelkov is a nationalist, as you are too, is he your early on favorite candidate for the presidency? Perhaps, Zhirinovsky is closer to your heart? Certainly, Putin with his pronounced Eurasian political direction is not a true nationalist able to protect Russia from
the cosmopolitan influences of Europe and the West or from more unwanted Asian migration to the fatherland, as you routinely point out in your posts here?…Besides, as you’ve also pointed out previously, he’s much to weak in his Ukrainian policies. What’s really needed is a real ball buster that will invade Ukraine and subdue it and remold it back to its proper place within the Ruskij Mir?…yeah, Strelkov or Zhirinovsky seem like better candidates. eh?…
Navalny doesn't seem to grasp some basic concepts of great power politics, which for a guy who wants to rule Russia is simply inexusable.
I think the current favorite to succeed Putin (whenever that happens) is Alexey Dyumin.Replies: @reiner Tor, @5371
Because the current regime is doing such a great job of it? Look, Russia got lucky with Putin, but it was a pure accident that Putin’s rule turned out as good (not bad) as it did. It was certainly not the result of well functioning political institutions in Russia. Remember, the dude was essentially appointed by a bunch of Jewish oligarchs to oversee their business empires – who knew at the time that president Putin would develop his own political agenda?
I find it embarrassing that in the 21st century our country is still being governed in a feudal way, with so much power concentrated in the hands of one man, and no clear mechanism for replacing this person (there are rumors that Putin will appoint one of his bodyguards as his successor -WTF!).
Russia needs to develop modern politics and modern political institutions ASAP. Strelkov-Navalny debate may be a small step in this direction, so we should probably refrain from ridiculing them too much. The Kremlin on the other hand is doing its outmost to keep Russia feudal. For this they deserve contempt.
I'm wondering Anatoly, since Strelkov is a nationalist, as you are too, is he your early on favorite candidate for the presidency? Perhaps, Zhirinovsky is closer to your heart? Certainly, Putin with his pronounced Eurasian political direction is not a true nationalist able to protect Russia from
the cosmopolitan influences of Europe and the West or from more unwanted Asian migration to the fatherland, as you routinely point out in your posts here?...Besides, as you've also pointed out previously, he's much to weak in his Ukrainian policies. What's really needed is a real ball buster that will invade Ukraine and subdue it and remold it back to its proper place within the Ruskij Mir?...yeah, Strelkov or Zhirinovsky seem like better candidates. eh?...Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Andrei Martyanov, @Anatoly Karlin
These are allies, mate. If you throw your allies under the bus, no one will ever fight for you again. That is why US keeps backing the Syrian rebels long after they lost any realistic chance of winning that war.
Navalny doesn’t seem to grasp some basic concepts of great power politics, which for a guy who wants to rule Russia is simply inexusable.
I find it embarrassing that in the 21st century our country is still being governed in a feudal way, with so much power concentrated in the hands of one man, and no clear mechanism for replacing this person (there are rumors that Putin will appoint one of his bodyguards as his successor -WTF!).
Russia needs to develop modern politics and modern political institutions ASAP. Strelkov-Navalny debate may be a small step in this direction, so we should probably refrain from ridiculing them too much. The Kremlin on the other hand is doing its outmost to keep Russia feudal. For this they deserve contempt.Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
It is, of course, up for a debate what IS “modern” in politics. But with some valid points you made, I think Putin’s Direct Line (especially the last one) is a thing NO any current world leader from supposedly “modern politics” nations will be able to handle.
I doubt it very much.
Chinese system has all these attributes, despite not being democratic. By contrast Russia's system is highly personalised, and built around Putin. We've got officials making statements to the effect that "without Putin, there is no Russia" - that sort of thinking definitely needs to go.The point is it shouldn't be Putin handpicking the next Russian president. As things stand now, Putin could have relinquished the presidency in favor of one of his daughters, and nobody is the government would as much as blink.
I'm wondering Anatoly, since Strelkov is a nationalist, as you are too, is he your early on favorite candidate for the presidency? Perhaps, Zhirinovsky is closer to your heart? Certainly, Putin with his pronounced Eurasian political direction is not a true nationalist able to protect Russia from
the cosmopolitan influences of Europe and the West or from more unwanted Asian migration to the fatherland, as you routinely point out in your posts here?...Besides, as you've also pointed out previously, he's much to weak in his Ukrainian policies. What's really needed is a real ball buster that will invade Ukraine and subdue it and remold it back to its proper place within the Ruskij Mir?...yeah, Strelkov or Zhirinovsky seem like better candidates. eh?...Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Andrei Martyanov, @Anatoly Karlin
Putin’s bodyguard Zolotov was appointed head of the National Guard, which is pretty Third World-y, but there’s a ways to go before we reach the level of Yeltsin’s relation with Korzhakov.
I think the current favorite to succeed Putin (whenever that happens) is Alexey Dyumin.
I'm wondering Anatoly, since Strelkov is a nationalist, as you are too, is he your early on favorite candidate for the presidency? Perhaps, Zhirinovsky is closer to your heart? Certainly, Putin with his pronounced Eurasian political direction is not a true nationalist able to protect Russia from
the cosmopolitan influences of Europe and the West or from more unwanted Asian migration to the fatherland, as you routinely point out in your posts here?...Besides, as you've also pointed out previously, he's much to weak in his Ukrainian policies. What's really needed is a real ball buster that will invade Ukraine and subdue it and remold it back to its proper place within the Ruskij Mir?...yeah, Strelkov or Zhirinovsky seem like better candidates. eh?...Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Andrei Martyanov, @Anatoly Karlin
Anyone in Russia who expresses such a position should have their heads examined by psychiatrists. A condition Girkin, btw, satisfies extremely well. Mentioning Zhirik in this context is laughable–he is a great showman but he is also extremely well situationally (and tactically) aware–that’s what makes him so effective at his clownishness. Many (including on these forums here) may not have gotten the message yet–but Russia really does not need Ukraine, most importantly–majority of Russians do not want to have anything in common with Ukraine anymore. It seems this tectonic shift which manifested itself in 2015-16, and especially in 2017, has been lost on many. But evidently the dynamics of Russia’s decoupling herself from Ukraine in every single field, from industry to culture, is being ignored. Ukraine did happen as a state and as a nation–I omit here what kind of nation–but this is fait accompli. Donbass will return home to Russia eventually and once those who consider Russia her historic and cultural root return to Russia, there will be nothing to “occupy” in Ukraine. Hell, there is nothing there even today bar some Russian pockets. Maidan has won, now Ukraine has to live with its consequences.
I'm wondering Anatoly, since Strelkov is a nationalist, as you are too, is he your early on favorite candidate for the presidency? Perhaps, Zhirinovsky is closer to your heart? Certainly, Putin with his pronounced Eurasian political direction is not a true nationalist able to protect Russia from
the cosmopolitan influences of Europe and the West or from more unwanted Asian migration to the fatherland, as you routinely point out in your posts here?...Besides, as you've also pointed out previously, he's much to weak in his Ukrainian policies. What's really needed is a real ball buster that will invade Ukraine and subdue it and remold it back to its proper place within the Ruskij Mir?...yeah, Strelkov or Zhirinovsky seem like better candidates. eh?...Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Andrei Martyanov, @Anatoly Karlin
Yes. Though that’s not the tenth of it.
Take it up with the people who use that term (i.e. not me).
You took the words out of my mouth.
I think the current favorite to succeed Putin (whenever that happens) is Alexey Dyumin.Replies: @reiner Tor, @5371
Orbán appointed his bodyguard to head his newly created elite police unit. Although the guy is not totally unqualified, he started his career at SWAT units, and only became a bodyguard later (leading the team guarding Orbán while he was opposition leader 2002-2010). Still he doesn’t seem to be very qualified to organize a new police unit, the unit has often been ridiculed for incompetence, not without justification.
Zolotov (apart from Law Degree) graduated from the Academy of General Staff, Dyumin has a superb technological education and a serious operational experience in highest level staffs of Armed Forces of Russia–both are highly qualified people. So, the term “bodyguard” does not do justice to both people mentioned here–both are much more than “bodyguards”.
Don’t be coy. Even if Ukraine still just about floats, Russia will get its land bridge to the Crimea. If the ” Ukrainian Government ” continues in its stupidity, then complete collapse beckons and large parts of Southern and Eastern Ukraine could follow.
Better than Putin? Care to explain that one in a little more depth?…
Say, I seem to have lost the ability to first view my comment before ‘publishing’ it and make any corrections? Is this endemic, or something specifically related to my account here?
I don’t know if I should wait for another OT thread for this, but I have another Russia question for the Russian posters here:
When journalists in Russia get murdered or have “accidents”, is it a consensus in Russia that Putin is behind the hits?
If so, we in the West could learn a lot from Putin.
A typical person in the West knows very little about the realities of Russia and generally trusts what he reads in MSM. If Western media tell him that "Putin murders journalists", then that's what he is going to believe.
Graph of journalist killings in Russia:
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/cpj-journalists-killed-in-russia-1992-to-2015.png
Tracks the overall crime/homicide rate very well.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @The Big Red Scary, @JL
The way I see it, a modern political system is when a country is governed by institutions as opposed to a strongman, authority within the goernment is shared and delegated, and no single individual owns the state. The head of the government serves a limited term, and there is a clearly defined procedure for replacing him. Replacing the leader should not require his consent.
Chinese system has all these attributes, despite not being democratic. By contrast Russia’s system is highly personalised, and built around Putin. We’ve got officials making statements to the effect that “without Putin, there is no Russia” – that sort of thinking definitely needs to go.
The point is it shouldn’t be Putin handpicking the next Russian president. As things stand now, Putin could have relinquished the presidency in favor of one of his daughters, and nobody is the government would as much as blink.
When journalists in Russia get murdered or have "accidents", is it a consensus in Russia that Putin is behind the hits?
If so, we in the West could learn a lot from Putin.Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen
Absolutely not. It’s mostly the Westerners who believe in all these Putin-related conspiracy theories.
A typical person in the West knows very little about the realities of Russia and generally trusts what he reads in MSM. If Western media tell him that “Putin murders journalists”, then that’s what he is going to believe.
When journalists in Russia get murdered or have "accidents", is it a consensus in Russia that Putin is behind the hits?
If so, we in the West could learn a lot from Putin.Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen
Yes, it is. In the 10% liberal camp. Otherwise, no.
Graph of journalist killings in Russia:
Tracks the overall crime/homicide rate very well.
Graph of journalist killings in Russia:
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/cpj-journalists-killed-in-russia-1992-to-2015.png
Tracks the overall crime/homicide rate very well.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @The Big Red Scary, @JL
I am quite ready to believe that the homicide rate for journalists tracks the overall homicide rate. The base rate fallacy is all too common. But how do you come up with the number? How do you estimate the number of journalists?
Another thing. As stated, the questions that Navalny is supposed to debate with Strelkov seem to be all about what Navalny wants to do about some issues rather than about the issues themselves. Who proposed the questions?
Graph of journalist killings in Russia:
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/cpj-journalists-killed-in-russia-1992-to-2015.png
Tracks the overall crime/homicide rate very well.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @The Big Red Scary, @JL
About the calculation. It seems to me that to get a better idea of what is going on (which is probably not very much), you should control for various socio-economic statistics. So you could ask how does the rate of murdered journalists in Moscow compare to the base rate of murder of people of similar social background in Moscow (as opposed, to say, the murder of gopniks in Uralvagonzavod), and also compare that to the same calculation for a basket of other countries.
Graph of journalist killings in Russia:
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/cpj-journalists-killed-in-russia-1992-to-2015.png
Tracks the overall crime/homicide rate very well.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @The Big Red Scary, @JL
Even the liberal camp knows better. Any murder-for-hire requires three elements, those who order the murder, those who organize it and those who carry it out. In almost all of these political murders, especially of the investigative journalists, Chechens figure as either one, two or all three. It’s one of the reasons the Chechens and liberals are constantly at each others’ throats. They blame Putin, perhaps rightfully, not for ordering the murders but by enabling them through his Chechnya policy.
I think the current favorite to succeed Putin (whenever that happens) is Alexey Dyumin.Replies: @reiner Tor, @5371
Dyumin seems plausible as the anti-Dima, but opsec has never been a Kremlin weakness and I am sure intrigue will be maintained until the decision is actually announced.
The author of the article is incorrect…..Navalny has previously only had 3% support throughout Russia….he wouldn’t get much more than that in 2018 elections, especially now with regards to relations with USA and NATO countries.
He got 27% in Moscow in 2013, so 10% across Russia is perfectly within the realm of plausibility.
I would be very surprised if Navalny even received 5%.......right now, I think hard-line Nationalists have better chances in the elections with policies that would better protect Russia.
I’m not sure if these data are correct:
Geo-politcally a lot has changed since 2013…..especially with regards to Ukraine and Russia’s relationships with USA & EU. (incl. the sanctions etc)
I would be very surprised if Navalny even received 5%…….right now, I think hard-line Nationalists have better chances in the elections with policies that would better protect Russia.
1. A clear distinction has to be made about what “investment” is–often it is merely a business. Russia didn’t stop doing business with Ukraine.
2. Having said all that–Russia’s decoupling herself from last vestiges of a remaining (and increasingly decrepit) industry–from Yuzhmash, Zorya Mashproekt, Progress or Antonov is a catastrophe for Ukraine.
You don’t have to trust me, you can read Leonid Kuchma’s conclusions:
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2017/06/goddamn-you-all-i-told-you-so-partially.html
Ukraine as a modern state (nation) is done, since can not exists as such without Russia, plus Ukraine finally ran out of technical documentation and know how (all Soviet) to sell to Chinese. Can Ukraine exist as something else? Sure–“agricultural superpower” or any other myth they would come up but as modern state Ukraine is over, no matter “investments”–a euphemism for speculation. The last Ukrainian shtick in high tech field is to repaint Russo-Ukrainian (mostly Russian) An-70 from which Russian MOD wisely refused, call it An-77 and wait for US to jump on board to “jointly” produce it, LOL.
This is, certainly, within the realm of possibilities but it is too early to say. My point was that Ukrainians happened as a nation. That is why I am also very realist about Malo(Novo)rossia–yes, there are people there and they are a large minority, but minority nonetheless. At this stage Russia can not and must not commit herself to territories and population which at best will be in “moya hata s krayu” mode, at worst, and most probable, will have latent (and constantly) brewing Ukrainian “grievances”–a situation which exactly brought Maidan to fruition. Would they like to live like Russians? Sure, will they be loyal to Russia–hell, no. This is the reality. Militant Ukrainianism exists even among very many Ukrainians who live in Russia, use all of her benefits and still hate her and Russians–those a very numerous, well-documented cases and they do form a very real pattern.
There is no good reason to expect the same process would not have taken place throughout the eight constituent oblasts of Novorossiya.You're over-estimating the importance of the military-industrial complex. It is very relevant for countries with Great Power pretensions, of course, but countries without such ambitions can provide comfortable living standards just by creating business friendly regulations and attracting foreign manufacturers by dint of lower labor costs (as happened in Poland/Czechia, now ongoing to some extent in Galicia).Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
Let’s get this myth based on anecdotal cases of svidomism out of the way. 90%+ of Crimeans support its incorporation into Russia according to numerous opinion polls, even though as of the 2001 census it was 60% Russian, 25% Ukrainian, and 10% Tatar. Since most opposition was Crimean Tatar (“only” half of them support it), that leaves only 5% – at most – unaccounted for, so that’s 80% of self-identifying Ukrainians supporting going into Russia even if we assume that all Russians were monolithically for it. (This is apart from the fact that in the 2014 census, masses of Crimean Ukrainians suddenly decided to start identifying as Russians instead).
There is no good reason to expect the same process would not have taken place throughout the eight constituent oblasts of Novorossiya.
You’re over-estimating the importance of the military-industrial complex. It is very relevant for countries with Great Power pretensions, of course, but countries without such ambitions can provide comfortable living standards just by creating business friendly regulations and attracting foreign manufacturers by dint of lower labor costs (as happened in Poland/Czechia, now ongoing to some extent in Galicia).
There is no good reason to expect the same process would not have taken place throughout the eight constituent oblasts of Novorossiya.You're over-estimating the importance of the military-industrial complex. It is very relevant for countries with Great Power pretensions, of course, but countries without such ambitions can provide comfortable living standards just by creating business friendly regulations and attracting foreign manufacturers by dint of lower labor costs (as happened in Poland/Czechia, now ongoing to some extent in Galicia).Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
I know Crimea and Sevastopol, and the Black Sea Fleet intimately–I lived there also for a long time. Using Crimea and Ukraine in the same sentence is simply nonacademic and is detached from the reality. There are also no legitimate parallels to be drawn between Ukraine and Crimea.
Totally false statement since is misguided–who said anything about specifically Military-Industrial Complex? The talk is about modern industry and it is not just some processors and iPhone production. Said Czechia has a well developed machine building complex which is also well integrated into global market–from world famous Skoda to a tier two aerospace companies, including sophisticated composite materials manufacturers. In fact, Czechia is a highly industrialized nation, Ukraine, meanwhile, is de-industrializing with catastrophic speed. Czechia’s PPP GDP is exactly the same as that of Ukraine–to a dollar, 368 billion. It’s just that her population is 4 times smaller. Once the remnants of Ukraine’s machine-building complex go, which is almost there by now, it is over for Ukraine. There are NO modern nation without serious machine building capacity, period. The rest, is a monetarist BS. Observe now, how Poland (which is mostly FIRE economy) will try to revive her once viable shipbuilding industry, which existed largely thanks to USSR–Poland produced a huge portion of the Soviet Navy’s amphibious component. No, machine-building complex is not only for countries with Great Power pretensions–it is for any nation which wants to be modern and with a high standard of living, because is capable to produce finished products with a very high added value. Commercial jets and cars are examples of such products, so are the services by such things as GPS or GLONASS, so are composite materials and CNC machines–none of which are existent anymore in Ukraine.
A decent measure of actual loyalty was self-identified native language (not the same as actual speech used in day to day life). Kiev is about 90% Russian-speaking, but 72% of people in Kiev declared that Ukrainian was their native language. In Kharkiv oblast this was 54%, in Dnipropetrovsk it was 67%, in Odessa 46%. In Crimea - 10%; in Donetsk oblast - 24%.Northern California is not a nation but it is prosperous with an economy with little machine-building as a % of its economy. It isn't worse than world auto-capital Michigan.
You are correct that most of Ukraine's heavy industry is dying. On the other hand, Ukraine is now experiencing a dramatic growth in IT outsourcing (if my memory serves, it is now in 4th place). 12 of the top 100 IT outsourcing companies in the world are in Ukraine. This doesn't mean much in terms of great power pretensions, but it is certainly something capable of providing a decent living for many people. Lviv is Ukaine's per capita leader in this, and by appearance and local lifestyle it is a nice, thoroughly modern city.Replies: @5371, @Andrei Martyanov, @The Big Red Scary
Correct. Due to Crimea’s Russian-ness, there has been some self-selection, wherein patriotic Ukrainians had left (or never settled there in the first place) and those who didn’t mind living in what was then de facto Russia stayed. To a lesser extent this was also true of Donbas, but it was simply not the case with rest of so-called Novorossiya.
A decent measure of actual loyalty was self-identified native language (not the same as actual speech used in day to day life). Kiev is about 90% Russian-speaking, but 72% of people in Kiev declared that Ukrainian was their native language. In Kharkiv oblast this was 54%, in Dnipropetrovsk it was 67%, in Odessa 46%. In Crimea – 10%; in Donetsk oblast – 24%.
Northern California is not a nation but it is prosperous with an economy with little machine-building as a % of its economy. It isn’t worse than world auto-capital Michigan.
You are correct that most of Ukraine’s heavy industry is dying. On the other hand, Ukraine is now experiencing a dramatic growth in IT outsourcing (if my memory serves, it is now in 4th place). 12 of the top 100 IT outsourcing companies in the world are in Ukraine. This doesn’t mean much in terms of great power pretensions, but it is certainly something capable of providing a decent living for many people. Lviv is Ukaine’s per capita leader in this, and by appearance and local lifestyle it is a nice, thoroughly modern city.
A decent measure of actual loyalty was self-identified native language (not the same as actual speech used in day to day life). Kiev is about 90% Russian-speaking, but 72% of people in Kiev declared that Ukrainian was their native language. In Kharkiv oblast this was 54%, in Dnipropetrovsk it was 67%, in Odessa 46%. In Crimea - 10%; in Donetsk oblast - 24%.Northern California is not a nation but it is prosperous with an economy with little machine-building as a % of its economy. It isn't worse than world auto-capital Michigan.
You are correct that most of Ukraine's heavy industry is dying. On the other hand, Ukraine is now experiencing a dramatic growth in IT outsourcing (if my memory serves, it is now in 4th place). 12 of the top 100 IT outsourcing companies in the world are in Ukraine. This doesn't mean much in terms of great power pretensions, but it is certainly something capable of providing a decent living for many people. Lviv is Ukaine's per capita leader in this, and by appearance and local lifestyle it is a nice, thoroughly modern city.Replies: @5371, @Andrei Martyanov, @The Big Red Scary
Portrait of the Khokhol as Cyber-Scavenger.
A decent measure of actual loyalty was self-identified native language (not the same as actual speech used in day to day life). Kiev is about 90% Russian-speaking, but 72% of people in Kiev declared that Ukrainian was their native language. In Kharkiv oblast this was 54%, in Dnipropetrovsk it was 67%, in Odessa 46%. In Crimea - 10%; in Donetsk oblast - 24%.Northern California is not a nation but it is prosperous with an economy with little machine-building as a % of its economy. It isn't worse than world auto-capital Michigan.
You are correct that most of Ukraine's heavy industry is dying. On the other hand, Ukraine is now experiencing a dramatic growth in IT outsourcing (if my memory serves, it is now in 4th place). 12 of the top 100 IT outsourcing companies in the world are in Ukraine. This doesn't mean much in terms of great power pretensions, but it is certainly something capable of providing a decent living for many people. Lviv is Ukaine's per capita leader in this, and by appearance and local lifestyle it is a nice, thoroughly modern city.Replies: @5371, @Andrei Martyanov, @The Big Red Scary
Let us be very very clear. While IT is an important industry it can not under any circumstances, unless we live in a fully automated utopia of a distant future, substitute for a modern (not heavy–this is insufficient term) machine-building complex. This is not a theorem, this is an axiom. For a simple reason–IT itself is a byproduct of this very industry, not the other way around. This utopia of a nation of brainiaks spending hours in a front of displays (hardware, btw–needs matrix, massive polymer industry, electronics and electrical industries) writing some magical programs thus increasing own nations GDP through the roof and providing for everyone with European middle-class existence–is a complete, well… utopia born in the murky depths of an American financial industry which played a key role in bankrupting and de-industrializing own nation–the United States. In other words–enclosed technological cycle always ruled, rules and will continue to rule, the rest is just monetarist crap.
Here is an optimistic article (I do not endorse or support everything that was written there):
https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/isaac-webb/bootstrapping-ukraine-s-revolution-one-startup-at-timeReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Andrei Martyanov
A decent measure of actual loyalty was self-identified native language (not the same as actual speech used in day to day life). Kiev is about 90% Russian-speaking, but 72% of people in Kiev declared that Ukrainian was their native language. In Kharkiv oblast this was 54%, in Dnipropetrovsk it was 67%, in Odessa 46%. In Crimea - 10%; in Donetsk oblast - 24%.Northern California is not a nation but it is prosperous with an economy with little machine-building as a % of its economy. It isn't worse than world auto-capital Michigan.
You are correct that most of Ukraine's heavy industry is dying. On the other hand, Ukraine is now experiencing a dramatic growth in IT outsourcing (if my memory serves, it is now in 4th place). 12 of the top 100 IT outsourcing companies in the world are in Ukraine. This doesn't mean much in terms of great power pretensions, but it is certainly something capable of providing a decent living for many people. Lviv is Ukaine's per capita leader in this, and by appearance and local lifestyle it is a nice, thoroughly modern city.Replies: @5371, @Andrei Martyanov, @The Big Red Scary
I have a friend from Lviv who works in tech. He agrees that Lviv is a nice place to live but feels there are few opportunities for an intelligent person to make a good living and considers moving to some other European country, for example Russia. Do you think this unwise?
He could, of course, make more in other countries (particular western ones). He can live very nicely in Lviv but of course he would make exponentially more in Silicon Valley with such skills.
Imagine the Strange New Respect which Western elites would suddenly develop for Putin, if by some miracle there was a runoff between him and Zhirinovsky!
Yea, because Russia closed down Ukrainian schools. Unless he doesn’t care if his kids study in Russian or English. Speaking of the West, he will also have to pay a premium just to live in a place like London, for instance. And forget about buying a reasonable property there – that is increasingly out of reach even for youngish professionals (esp. if they don’t want to remain childless). Ukrainians will find out soon enough and, Ukrainians being high IQ white people with their increasing expectations and higher benchmarks than welfare immigrants, they will make decisions based on those factors. With a relatively high salary, it makes sense to stay in Lviv because you’ll get many things for much cheaper than you would in the West (probably Moscow too, I hear a lot from Russians coming out of their that the air in Moscow is shitty and it is super expensive).
I think the issue is not only money, but also intellectual self-respect. If you have work to feel proud of, then you can be content with a more modest income. (This is the trade-off I made with moving to Russia.) But most basic tech work is boring. I’ve seen a number of highly intelligent people sink into depression when the only work they can find bores them.
Another huge factor – surrounding culture. Especially – Slavic nationals within Anglo and Germanic cultures, doesn’t always work that great.
Another factor would be whether he has an attractive wife – if he takes her along to the West, she might get snatched from him (in full seriousness, this has happened in real life to many EE guys), because her value will rise (this can happen to married ones, too). In the West there will be more guys who make more and who are more starved for hot women, whereas in Lviv, which is full of hot women and the sex ratio is in men’s favor, he probably wouldn’t have to worry about that. Ofc, in Russia it would be a different story, as Russian women are hot, too.
When journalists in Russia get murdered or have "accidents", is it a consensus in Russia that Putin is behind the hits?
If so, we in the West could learn a lot from Putin.Replies: @Felix Keverich, @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen
No. Lots of journalists in Russia are there to dig up dirt on their employers’ political opponents. Leads to retaliations.
Strelkov is an autistic truth sayer. I don’t agree with him but I would have him round to supper. He wouldn’t cope with an election. He couldn’t cope with the politics of Generalship. He was completely outwitted while “Minister of Defence”.
In Lviv he could probably rise to management. There are also many start-ups in Lviv. One of my cousins helps run one of those outsourcing firms; he does very well even by Western standards and has turned down opportunities to work in the West. Our mutual uncle, in Soviet times, had been the chief engineer at a secret factory that produced electronics for missile systems in Lviv. So one can see the transition in the economy in one family.
This comes back down to “great power” pretensions – Ukraine being a fully autonomous “electronics” power in which it not only has programmers but they use computers designed and built in Ukraine. Well, what if there are simply over 100,000 of decently-paid IT people working in start-ups and outsourcing. Obviously this alone is not enough on which to base a national economy, and indeed in addition to this Ukraine has agriculture, rapidly expanding light industry (producing electric cables for cars is not nearly the same as producing cars, but it is something), etc. Plus in the case of Lviv, tourism.
Here is an optimistic article (I do not endorse or support everything that was written there):
https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/isaac-webb/bootstrapping-ukraine-s-revolution-one-startup-at-time
https://fronteranews.com/news/emerging-europe/no-longer-secret-ukraine-europes-new-frontier-market/
Compare:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_microprocessors
and
http://www.uadn.net/2016/01/15/ukrainian-electronics-producer-aims-to-capitalize-on-patriotism/Replies: @AP
Where I live in the US, young Ukrainian immigrants seem to be doing quite well, many professionals making in excess of six figure incomes. Even those that are older and less educated seem to be holding their own, working as beauticians, barbers, auto mechanics and home repair capenters. All live in their own homes, have nice new cars and always enjoy nice vacations. Not all places are super expensive to live in, like San Francisco, where Karlin spent 10 years of his time.
Here is an optimistic article (I do not endorse or support everything that was written there):
https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/isaac-webb/bootstrapping-ukraine-s-revolution-one-startup-at-timeReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Andrei Martyanov
Here’s another article that buttresses your point of view. It even points out the possibility of building upon Ukraine’s aerospace sector. A real eye opener for me:
https://fronteranews.com/news/emerging-europe/no-longer-secret-ukraine-europes-new-frontier-market/
Here is an optimistic article (I do not endorse or support everything that was written there):
https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/isaac-webb/bootstrapping-ukraine-s-revolution-one-startup-at-timeReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Andrei Martyanov
So, Ukraine produces processors now, right? LOL.
Compare:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_microprocessors
and
http://www.uadn.net/2016/01/15/ukrainian-electronics-producer-aims-to-capitalize-on-patriotism/
I’m aware that Ukrainians mostly do well in the US, but again – are you talking about first, second generation immigrants because there is a difference there. Many of them have support systems (several family members come together and most of them do not live in places like San Fran but in little whitopian towns on outskirts of bigger cities). Don’t get me wrong, I was just making a few observations from an E.European POV (I have a liking for Ukrainians and wish that they would prosper in Ukraine). I just think it isn’t necessarily the best deal for, let’s say, a mid-30s professional, if he’s already doing well, to switch Lviv for London or a similar place. It might be ok for a two year long stint or at a particular period in one’s career, or to make one’s resume look nicer, but if you put all the pros and cons together in the long term, and especially if you include family / kids, Lviv might be better in the end for an educated professional. In fact, moving West might be a better deal for a blue collar worker (which isn’t good for the country in the long term). Hopefully, Ukraine will develop more products, I feel very optimistic about Ukraine.
Agree. I know two professionals who moved back to Lviv from the West after a few years. One of them did wait until they got the Western passport though (yes, I know Ukraine doesn’t allow it. They travel through Poland when using the other one). I also know people who returned to Lviv from Kiev for similar reasons.
Compare:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_microprocessors
and
http://www.uadn.net/2016/01/15/ukrainian-electronics-producer-aims-to-capitalize-on-patriotism/Replies: @AP
I neither said nor implied it. My point is that a place can be prosperous with 100,000s of programmers while not also producing hardware.
I thought you were Canadian. Did you vote for Hillary?
I’m talking almost exclusively about first generation immigrants. One, a good friend of mine, piggy backed over here after his sister first made the move and both are now U.S citizens. She is a college instructor and is doing pretty good, visiting Europe and being invited to conferences there during the summer months. She also has worked there during the summer months on research projects. He’s a system’s guy, working for a small government unit, not complaining too much. Still, I think that most of these immigrants have a back-up plan where they make some money here, and return back to Ukraine to retire…it is a lot cheaper to live there, as you’ve pointed out and they would normally feel more comfortable living in their own environment. We’ll see how it all ends up in a few years as their kids grow up in the states and feel more at home here…
Canadian? Hillary?? 🙂
If you didn't vote for Hillary then I apologize as it is a truly terrible thing to wrongfully accuse somebody of.Replies: @Mr. Hack
you have accused Russia of helping to elect Trump which sounds like something a Hillary supporter would say. I dismissed it when you said it because I just attributed it to Canadian Trump Derangement Syndrome, but you can’t have Canadian Trump Derangement Syndrome if you aren’t Canadian, which opens up the possibility that you voted for Hil.
If you didn’t vote for Hillary then I apologize as it is a truly terrible thing to wrongfully accuse somebody of.
Well, about the future of Lviv, maybe my friend is a pessimist, and you are an optimist. And I hope you are right on this, despite your sampling bias. At any rate, the Wikipedia page makes Lviv look attractive, and I generally like that part of the world, so I’ll have to visit. How annoyed will people be if I speak five words of Ukrainian, but speak Russian better than they speak English?
If you didn't vote for Hillary then I apologize as it is a truly terrible thing to wrongfully accuse somebody of.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Did I? I really don’t remember doing so, and If I did and you can direct me to a quotation, I’d be greatly indebted to you. For the record, I voted neither for Hilary nor Donald, but wrote in Rob Portman from Ohio, an up and coming future president.
I thought it was only a couple of threads ago where you confronted Anatoly about Russian meddling in the US election. Maybe it was somebody else?
I am grieved and disappointed that you did not vote for our savior Trump. Are you in favor of the Democrats plan to turn whites into a minority in their own country?Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack
I’m not gonna did it up, not because I don’t respect you but simply because I just don’t care enough to search through the threads.
I thought it was only a couple of threads ago where you confronted Anatoly about Russian meddling in the US election. Maybe it was somebody else?
I am grieved and disappointed that you did not vote for our savior Trump. Are you in favor of the Democrats plan to turn whites into a minority in their own country?
This comment is about right:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/trump-open-thread-2/#comment-1863503
Ironically he may have conned the Russophiles, too.
I seems rather obvious that Russia meddled in the election. They certainly had the means and motive to do so. The meddling was probably low on the list of many factors that led to Trump's victory, but it was there. The purpose was probably to weaken and discredit Hillary, I doubt the Russians expected Trump to win.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @5371
There are a lot of Russian-speaking tourists from Kiev in the city so they won’t be annoyed at all if you speak Russian to them.
No, it can’t. Switzerland, much touted for her once great banking “industry” is prosperous not only because of the banks, but because has a very developed hi-tech bio-pharmaceutical, chemical, yes, watches–which is precision machine-building, and other machine-building industries. Only nations in possession of highly developed modern industries and large number of enclosed technological cycles are prosperous. Highly skilled labor force is a must–that force exists for and within only modern industries. No mo0dern industry–no prosperity.
Although I can't off the top of my head think of a nation with such a profile, the US state of Minnesota comes to mind. It's primarily agricultural but with a strong service and high tech sector, without much industry (they make snowmobiles and such but this is a small fraction of MN's agricultural and service-based economy - and Lviv still makes some busses).
I mentioned it elsewhere, but my uncle in Ukraine had been the chief engineer at a plant in Lviv that produced electronics for Soviet weapons. The plant is gone, killed when Kuchma obeyed and didn't sell to Saddam. Next generation - my cousin helps run one of the large IT outsourcing firms in the city. He lives much better than my uncle ever did, as do the employees. And indeed, the city itself looks much more prosperous now, then when I visited in 1990. In terms of great power pretensions, creating apps and improving operating systems may be a joke compared to producing integral components for weapon systems but in terms of providing a nice life for workers and the community, the transition has not been bad.Replies: @Mr. Hack
I thought it was only a couple of threads ago where you confronted Anatoly about Russian meddling in the US election. Maybe it was somebody else?
I am grieved and disappointed that you did not vote for our savior Trump. Are you in favor of the Democrats plan to turn whites into a minority in their own country?Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack
Trump is a con artist, not a savior.
This comment is about right:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/trump-open-thread-2/#comment-1863503
Ironically he may have conned the Russophiles, too.
I seems rather obvious that Russia meddled in the election. They certainly had the means and motive to do so. The meddling was probably low on the list of many factors that led to Trump’s victory, but it was there. The purpose was probably to weaken and discredit Hillary, I doubt the Russians expected Trump to win.
About meddling in the election. The prior probability that the Russian intelligence agencies would try to do that is quite high, of course. (Same goes for the intelligence agencies of UK and Israel.) But the actual evidence seems rather weak, and since a number of 0ther recent red scares in US newspapers have been thoroughly discredited (for example, hacking of the Vermont electric grid), I am disinclined to assign even a moderate probability to "Russian hacking" as an explanation for the DNC and Podesta emails.
In fact, at least for the Podesta emails, obtained by phishing, just about any Trump fanboy could have pulled that off. Given that this was so easy, then it seems almost certain that Russia (as well as the UK and Israel) must have succeeded in gathering other information on Clinton. But I have seen no evidence suggesting that the DNC and Podesta emails were obtained by state sponsored hackers. There is simply not enough information to estimate probabilities for the various ways the emails could have been obtained.
Good to know. However, I have had much success in annoying Czechs and Poles by speaking German and Russian.
This comment is about right:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/trump-open-thread-2/#comment-1863503
Ironically he may have conned the Russophiles, too.
I seems rather obvious that Russia meddled in the election. They certainly had the means and motive to do so. The meddling was probably low on the list of many factors that led to Trump's victory, but it was there. The purpose was probably to weaken and discredit Hillary, I doubt the Russians expected Trump to win.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @5371
I agree about Trump. Some people around here have shown uncharacteristically poor judgement with respect to Trump.
About meddling in the election. The prior probability that the Russian intelligence agencies would try to do that is quite high, of course. (Same goes for the intelligence agencies of UK and Israel.) But the actual evidence seems rather weak, and since a number of 0ther recent red scares in US newspapers have been thoroughly discredited (for example, hacking of the Vermont electric grid), I am disinclined to assign even a moderate probability to “Russian hacking” as an explanation for the DNC and Podesta emails.
In fact, at least for the Podesta emails, obtained by phishing, just about any Trump fanboy could have pulled that off. Given that this was so easy, then it seems almost certain that Russia (as well as the UK and Israel) must have succeeded in gathering other information on Clinton. But I have seen no evidence suggesting that the DNC and Podesta emails were obtained by state sponsored hackers. There is simply not enough information to estimate probabilities for the various ways the emails could have been obtained.
Ukraine seems to be in a unique position. On the one hand, its traditional manufacturing is dying, but on the other hand it retains a highly skilled workforce and is experiencing tremendous growth in IT services, while its agriculture and agriculture-derived industries (such as sugar processing and sunflower oil production) are also growing. It is losing or has lost its status as a major manufacturing player, but is certainly not turning into some sort of third world plantation either. Lviv Polytechnic is ranked at #20 in the world terms of the quality of its programmers; tied with MIT and above MGU; one doesn’t see that sort of thing in Latin American agricultural countries.
Although I can’t off the top of my head think of a nation with such a profile, the US state of Minnesota comes to mind. It’s primarily agricultural but with a strong service and high tech sector, without much industry (they make snowmobiles and such but this is a small fraction of MN’s agricultural and service-based economy – and Lviv still makes some busses).
I mentioned it elsewhere, but my uncle in Ukraine had been the chief engineer at a plant in Lviv that produced electronics for Soviet weapons. The plant is gone, killed when Kuchma obeyed and didn’t sell to Saddam. Next generation – my cousin helps run one of the large IT outsourcing firms in the city. He lives much better than my uncle ever did, as do the employees. And indeed, the city itself looks much more prosperous now, then when I visited in 1990. In terms of great power pretensions, creating apps and improving operating systems may be a joke compared to producing integral components for weapon systems but in terms of providing a nice life for workers and the community, the transition has not been bad.
Minnesota is an integral part of the American economy and can not be viewed separately from the US economy as a whole. This is not a very good example.
The hope for Ukrainians is that Ukraine gets integrated into the EU, I suppose.
As I said, Ukraine's position may be unique. I can't, without doing on-line research, think of a prosperous country that doesn't also manufacture high-end products, as you say. On the other hand, I cannot think of a mostly agricultural country that also is a major outsourcing center. From this article:
https://n-ix.com/top-it-outsourcing-destinations-ukraine-vs-poland/That is definitely not the profile of a future Africa or Honduras.
Although I can't off the top of my head think of a nation with such a profile, the US state of Minnesota comes to mind. It's primarily agricultural but with a strong service and high tech sector, without much industry (they make snowmobiles and such but this is a small fraction of MN's agricultural and service-based economy - and Lviv still makes some busses).
I mentioned it elsewhere, but my uncle in Ukraine had been the chief engineer at a plant in Lviv that produced electronics for Soviet weapons. The plant is gone, killed when Kuchma obeyed and didn't sell to Saddam. Next generation - my cousin helps run one of the large IT outsourcing firms in the city. He lives much better than my uncle ever did, as do the employees. And indeed, the city itself looks much more prosperous now, then when I visited in 1990. In terms of great power pretensions, creating apps and improving operating systems may be a joke compared to producing integral components for weapon systems but in terms of providing a nice life for workers and the community, the transition has not been bad.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Your comparison of Ukraine’s situation with what Minnesota has achieved in the contemporary world is quite prescient! I’m curious, did you come up with this idea on your own or could you share any citations that also point to this sort of a comparison? Minnesota is not totally void of manufacturing products though. 3M, a huge global player in manufacturing all manner of products is headquartered in Maplewood Minnesota. Honeywell, another huge multi national company has a huge presence in Minnesota too, that specializes in aerospace and thermostat design. And then there’s Medtronics, another huge manufacturer of medical devices that has its operational headquarters in Fridley Minnesota. Etc; etc;…So, you see, there’s more than ‘snowmobiles’ being manufactured in Minnesota. Comparing Ukraine with Minnesota hit a positive note with me, as I know Minnesota quite well and have spent a good part of my life living there. 🙂
How much of MN's stuff is still made in the USA, versus in China? Honeywell has a lot of MN-based engineers but isn't a lot of the manufacturing in China?Replies: @Mr. Hack
I thought it was only a couple of threads ago where you confronted Anatoly about Russian meddling in the US election. Maybe it was somebody else?
I am grieved and disappointed that you did not vote for our savior Trump. Are you in favor of the Democrats plan to turn whites into a minority in their own country?Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack
I’m not a big fan of the Democratic party for many reasons, not only for their lax immigration policies. As for Trump ‘our savior’, I’d suggest that for the time being, he concentrate on saving himself, as the faint whiff of impeachment is really in the air right now…
The Trump haters on this site are all members of the Syria/Iran crowd. They are just angry that their man Ron Paul was a homosexual who failed miserably in his two pathetic primary runs.
Your statement might make some sense, if contemporary Ukraine was cut off and living in some sort of a vacuum. Although it’s clear that this perception is what most Russophiles of your ilk would like to perceive Ukraine as being, it’s really not so and its prospects for future increases in trade with other countries is only really just beginning to unwind. Even, Russia, as you’ve so clearly shown us, can’t seem to diminish its business dealing with Ukraine, and doesn’t appear to really want to. Read this article to get a better idea of the economic and trade prospects that Ukraine presents to its Western trade partners: https://fronteranews.com/news/emerging-europe/no-longer-secret-ukraine-europes-new-frontier-market/
True.
The hope for Ukrainians is that Ukraine gets integrated into the EU, I suppose.
As I said, Ukraine’s position may be unique. I can’t, without doing on-line research, think of a prosperous country that doesn’t also manufacture high-end products, as you say. On the other hand, I cannot think of a mostly agricultural country that also is a major outsourcing center. From this article:
https://n-ix.com/top-it-outsourcing-destinations-ukraine-vs-poland/
That is definitely not the profile of a future Africa or Honduras.
It was my own idea. South Dakota (home of Gateway computers, since bought by the Chinese) is another place with an agricultural/high tech economy, without much industry.
How much of MN’s stuff is still made in the USA, versus in China? Honeywell has a lot of MN-based engineers but isn’t a lot of the manufacturing in China?
How much of MN's stuff is still made in the USA, versus in China? Honeywell has a lot of MN-based engineers but isn't a lot of the manufacturing in China?Replies: @Mr. Hack
All thre eof the companies that I cited are international ones,but they do have very large presences in Minnesota. I couldn’t tell you how much of what they produce is actually made in Minnesota, and how much is manufactured in other countries. One thing that is clear from the article that I cited both to you and to Martyanov, is that Ukraine is poised to benefit from more direct involvement from large multi-nationals, such as the ones I listed in Minnesota. Cargill, one of the very largest private companies in the world involved in food manufacturing has been involved in Ukraine for quite some time too. I’d be interested in hearing your opinion about the article cited from Frontera news.
Nothing wrong with manufacturing food: https://www.cargill.com/worldwide/ukraine-en
Check your reading comprehension. You have serious issues with it, if you can not distinguish between border trade, financial transactions and some food imports-exports from and to Ukraine and the scale of business in machine-building sphere, which is pretty much over. Not to mention your complete ignorance on the issues of real economy. If even this imbecile Lyashko gets it, and there are very few Ukrainian “patriots” more unhinged than him, then I don’t know.
https://www.facebook.com/O.Liashko/videos/vb.100001758206922/1371924606209466/
Mr Hack, stop peddling here some shitty “analytic” outfit most of whose contributors and “analysts” will not find their own ass with both hands in a brightly lit room when dealing with real economy and especially when talking about Russia and Ukraine issues. So called Western analysts proved for the last three years, with spectacular failures, that they are completely ignorant and incompetent to speak on anything related to subjects which really matter. Here is a piece by Professor Nicholas Gvosdev who teaches strategy in Naval War College, even he had to eat a “humble pie”.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-growing-danger-military-conflict-russia-18013?page=2
If not him, than acquaint yourself with Harlan Ullman from Atlantic Council
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Opinion/2016/11/28/Needed-urgently-some-first-rate-Kremlinologists/6171480114407/
What is needed now is serious analytical examination of Russia from top to bottom to identify strengths, weaknesses, vulnerabilities and most importantly the knowledge and understanding on which Western policy should be based.
As I already stated not for once–bar some few exceptions–Western view of Russia is ignorant and incompetent. Generally, it always was. So spare me your “opinions” on the matter–they are rubbish. As per Ukraine–you may continue to reside in parallel universe. Ukraine has nothing–zero–to offer, other than raw materials, to Western “trade partners”.
I hope Trump does get impeached because that would guarantee a civil war. Alas, there is 0 chance of it happening.
The Trump haters on this site are all members of the Syria/Iran crowd. They are just angry that their man Ron Paul was a homosexual who failed miserably in his two pathetic primary runs.
What kind of IT services do you think offer an exportable material? (keeping in mind the competition from low-wage countries)
Nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing that you’ve stated or alluded to has served to negate anything that I’ve posted. Nothing! I was commenting on Ukraine’s future economic and business prospects, and even included an article to support my opinions, and aside from your bizarre form of histrionics, you were unable to address even one single idea brought up therein. Your response included two articles that mostly dealt with military issues, and even the one portion that dealt with economic issues came out making Russia look like the weak limping economy that it still is:
The difference between you and me, is that I actually read the citations that you’ve included, whereas I doubt that you even paid a passing glance at what I’ve posted. In order to assess somebody else’s reading comprehension skills, you should first check out your own. From where I sit, I’ve seen hungry dogs in a pack yelp and scream louder and more convincingly than you, Mr. Naval Instructor Man (‘EX’ -Naval Instructor Man). 🙂
As I stated, you have serious issues with reading comprehension–the articles I provided you with are not about Russian economy, but about even some huge ego and fairly high positioned people admitting that they know very little about Russia. Now, about your “article” I am not interested in opinions of some second-rate amateurs. But then again, I am basically answering this not for you but for a benefit of those who read this and, actually, do comprehend what they read. As per Russian “weak” economy, sure–whatever floats your boat. Even if neocon morons from Newsweek admitted in 2015…
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/24/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934.html
Listen, I know you are troll, but here is the (not for you):
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/05/23/russian-economy-moves-to-recovery-from-recession-says-the-world-bank
Now, for trolls like you–real economy is defined by GDP’s structure but this is beyond you comprehension, but I will repeat–Ukraine is now the Third World nation and it will remain there with no chances of improving.
Or the Ukrainian economy either, but that’s what I was commenting about – why would you provide articles about other writer’s perceived credibility when commenting back to me about another topic? Only somebody who truly has ‘comprehension issues’ would try such a stunt!
Okay Tarzan. Having problems writing too?…’here is the (not for you)’ 🙂
I’m totally aware about the meaning of GDP, however my original comment had to deal in general terms about the improving conditions of Ukraine’s economy, not Russia’s. You seem to have a serious problem with staying on topic and like to jump around a lot.
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/24/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934.html
Listen, I know you are troll, but here is the (not for you):
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/05/23/russian-economy-moves-to-recovery-from-recession-says-the-world-bank
Now, for trolls like you--real economy is defined by GDP's structure but this is beyond you comprehension, but I will repeat--Ukraine is now the Third World nation and it will remain there with no chances of improving.Replies: @AP
“Third world nation” that is also the 4th largest source of certified IT workers and which includes 12 of the world’s top 100 IT outsourcing firms doesn’t compute. (I linked to this info previously).
Ukraine’s 2017 per capita GDP PPP of $8,678 is about the same as that of Belarus in 2004. I had no idea Belarus was a third world country in 2004.
Here is a tourist’s video of Lviv:
Total third world 🙂
It’s on track to sell about $3 billion worth of programming services this year to Western trade partners. Also several hundred millions worth of light industrial products such as electric cables.
Looks just awful, how can people live like that??…say, I didn’t see any of those nasty ‘Ukro-Nazis’ you hear so much about – they must have hidden them just for this video clip…
As I said, cyber-scavengers, digging in e-dumpsters to survive, but calling themselves “trained IT professionals”. Like a hobo describing himself as a “trained sanitary engineer”.
This comment is about right:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/trump-open-thread-2/#comment-1863503
Ironically he may have conned the Russophiles, too.
I seems rather obvious that Russia meddled in the election. They certainly had the means and motive to do so. The meddling was probably low on the list of many factors that led to Trump's victory, but it was there. The purpose was probably to weaken and discredit Hillary, I doubt the Russians expected Trump to win.Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @5371
It’s very hard to overstate the degree of stupidity or mendacity – usually both – which is necessary to think “Russian meddling in the election” is a charge that can be seriously levelled.
That’s right, computer programmers and app developers are just like hobos looking through trash cans.
Of course, numerous American and foreign intelligence agencies managed to lie, coordinate their lies, and there have miraculously been no whistle-blowers or leakers to expose such lies. They are all so brilliant.
Or, Russians have simply been doing things they are technically capable of doing, and have a motive to do, the same kinds of things that Americans have themselves also been doing, to the USA.
Which is more likely?
Out of curiosity – are you a 9-11 truther?
Well, if you think, or want to appear to think, that anyone who disbelieved Cunton-favourable, or believed Cunton-unfavourable, stories online was tricked into doing so by a diabolical and undefinable Russo-robotic plot, I can’t help you. There hasn’t been a single election anywhere in the world since 1945 without much more evidence of US intervention than there is of Russian intervention in this one.
As I wrote elsewhere, the Russian interference was a small factor in Hillary’s loss. BLM-pandering, her inherent unpleasantness, her failure to take into account the needs of white workers, immigration, wanting to bring in Muslim refugees, etc. all played far more critical roles. I doubt the Russian themselves thought they were going to swing the election; the objective was probably simply to weaken Hillary.
That having been said, given the tiny margin of victory, one can’t exclude the possibility that the interference – small in its impact relative to other factors as it was – played a critical role. Perhaps some bitter Bernie supports didn’t vote, but otherwise would have; perhaps this info was enough to convince someone who would have voted for Hillary to just stay home, etc. Nearly 130 million people voted in 2016. It’s not unlikely that a few 10,000s were swayed to vote differently, or to not vote at all, based on the product of Russian interference.
Anyways, the extent of the impact of the interference is simply speculation. But the existence of the interference is much less so.
I’m neutral in this fight, but I don’t think that Andrei likes the Ukraine very much.
Russia has many credible opposition you cretin. It has a strong multi-party system, unlike the USA…and frequently United Russia caves in or outright copies policies of KPRF and LDPR
errrmmmmm……Ukraine was the only one that interfered in the Americans you braindead russophobic dipshit. They openly did, openly proved that they did….at state level from the SBU and Rada and President…..but are too fucked in the head crazy ukronazis to realise that they did….just like they are too fucked up to realise or admit that they are losing Donbass not to the Russian army…but a bunch of miners, or too dumb too realise that they are murdering civilians, or that they are a failed state and a artificial state….hence their braindead moron statements on guys like Lenin and Stalin who basically created the state of “Ukraine” you stupid retard.
Yeah right…miners that know how to operate (not very well) BUK artillery units. And where did they get these systems from in the first place? Keep spitting out your stupid remarks giraffe, I’m sure you’ll find some takers for your empty headed histrionics! Maybe some coal miners who never finished the 5th grade? 🙂
Oh goody. Yes, in 2004 Belarus was nothing to talk about, yet today (2017) her per-capita GDP is 2.5 times that of Ukraine. You know why? Because Belarus is synced with Russia, who even in her hardest days of mid-2000 continued to buy Belarus’ products, including hi-tech ones. Ukraine had Russia’s sinecure for decades, now it is over and no matter how you try to convince yourself–IT as a core of the economy is a figment of imagination of hacks (wink, wink). As per your video, LOL, Sir, when was the last time you visited Moscow, St.Petersburg, Nizhny or Vladivostok with Novosibirsk? You are trying to impress me with Lviv? LOL. Talk about having no sense of measure or proportion. Moscow’s economy alone (most of it hi-tech, machine-building etc.), as a city (forget Oblast) is about 60% that of whole Ukarine’s (with Oblast included–about the same). Moscow’s per-capita GDP is one of the highest in Europe and higher than that of Netherlands or Germany. Moreover, a very similar, albeit on somewhat lower level situation repeats itself in many (not all) Russia’s major urban centers. Even if to consider some of Russia’s depressed areas (some of countryside, many mono-towns or simply towns), Russia’s overall per-capita GDP is three and a half times that of Ukraine’s. So, yes, please, impress me, especially against the background of Moscow’s, St.Petersburg’s or Yekaterinburg’s glitz, LOL. Do you want to visit Sochi? ;))
LOL. Hey, try to offer your expertise to CNN;)
How about ‘BUK missile unit’ – is that better? BTW, you seem to be the one with a checkered work history. Perhaps, you should check with CNN, being the expert that you are? 🙂
So was Belarus a third world country in 2004? Yes or no.
I lived in Moscow in the mid 2000s and visit regularly, most recently in 2013. I might go for New Year’s this year, if my wife’s flat isn’t rented out by then. When is the last time you were there, and how much time have you spent there?
I have never been to Vladivostock but I have been to the Urals a few times and, of course, St. Petersburg.
I’m not trying to “impress” you with Lviv, I am simply showing you that it is a normal European city, and not the third world as you claim.
That being said, Lviv is certainly nicer and more developed than some provincial Russian cities. Lviv is much smaller and far cheaper than Moscow but the restaurants are no worse, the streets no less civilized in appearance, even if there are fewer (or maybe no) Bentleys.
Yes. And what does Moscow’s wealth have to do with the silly claim that Ukraine is a third world country.
hahaha!! This is the most braindead thing i’ve read…..so because the average GDP in Britain in 1865 was lower than Nigeria’s now…that means that Nigeria is a richer country now than Britain was in 1865? What type of fucktard troll moron “thinking” is that you troll prick.
bollocks…you are a fantasist fucktard troll who knows fuckall about everything and copies and pastes bollocks from the Motyl dipshit section of wikipedia. Also y0u are some fucktard probably related to some Nazi rapist cunt in the 40’s
hahaha you insecure fucktard…Lvov is a nothing city that even Ryanair won’t touch. Most tourists there are from Russia…once they lose interest than nobody goes there you dickhead. Lvov is an average dirty city with severe rubbish collection problems you twat….just like a third world country. Iraq ,Cuba,North Korea have many places that are tourist friendly……that still doesn’t mean they aren’t third world …just like failed state Ukraine is you retard. Ukraine has also had millions of people leave it…because it is a third world state….and has a very weak GDP….worse than Armenia…which has terrible relations with the wealthy Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Yes.
Because Ukraine is poor, uneducated and a… third world country which produces nothing of what defines a modern developed nation. It will get even worse, in fact it is getting there while I type this. She has nothing on offer for what developed world needs, other than some raw materials. She has a per-capita GDP of a shit hole such as South Africa and a bunch of baboons running it. OK, what else?
Yes, it is getting there, becoming a “normal European city”, including dumps, “refugees” and no industry. This is the whole point–guys, just get to Europe ASAP;)
LOL, you surely missed a lot.
Ukraine is indeed poor.
Uneducated? Literacy rate slightly higher than Russia's (99.8% vs. 99.7% - no difference). The only world ranking of overall university systems I've come across is from U21 here. Ukraine is tied with Greece, slightly below Russia. Is Greece a third world country? Within Europe it was ranked higher than Slovakia, Serbia, Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria. Are these all third world countries?
Ukraine manufactures and exports hundreds of millions of dollars worth of electric cables per year.
Ukraine produces about 3 billion dollars worth of IT services. It's become the largest outsourcing center in Europe.And yet, its economy is growing. While you type this.You forgot the approximately $3 billion dollars worth of IT services. This is amount is growing every year.I didn't see any dumps there. As for "refugees" Moscow is much darker than Lviv, which is 99% European. Industry? Lviv manufactures a few trolleybuses, but the local economy is driven by the thousands of programmers in start-ups and outsourcing firms. It's not a heavily industrialized city.
Your ideal is Detroit?I know Moscow (at least its center, and places outside it such as the town with our dacha) much better than you do. And unlike you, I can actually compare it to Ukraine, because like many Russians who think they know something about Ukraine, you have never been there. As evidenced by your seriously written nonsense about a "third world country."
Here is someone's video of a tram ride in Lviv. Behold your idea of a "third world country":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgK3FRAT7lgReplies: @Andrei Martyanov
Yes, he is a Reverend Mother Gaius Helen Mohiam.
If you can with straight face someone like Strelkov autistic, this proves that word “autism” lost all meaning it once had and became just another general purpose insult. (like other formerly medical term as “idiot” “imbecile” “moron”etc.)
Ok. You are wrong, but at least consistent. Ukraine is a third world country in the same way as Belarus was in 2004.
Again, please explain what Moscow’s wealth has to do with this (mostly false) claim?
Ukraine is indeed poor.
Uneducated? Literacy rate slightly higher than Russia’s (99.8% vs. 99.7% – no difference). The only world ranking of overall university systems I’ve come across is from U21 here. Ukraine is tied with Greece, slightly below Russia. Is Greece a third world country? Within Europe it was ranked higher than Slovakia, Serbia, Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria. Are these all third world countries?
Ukraine manufactures and exports hundreds of millions of dollars worth of electric cables per year.
Ukraine produces about 3 billion dollars worth of IT services. It’s become the largest outsourcing center in Europe.
And yet, its economy is growing. While you type this.
You forgot the approximately $3 billion dollars worth of IT services. This is amount is growing every year.
I didn’t see any dumps there. As for “refugees” Moscow is much darker than Lviv, which is 99% European. Industry? Lviv manufactures a few trolleybuses, but the local economy is driven by the thousands of programmers in start-ups and outsourcing firms. It’s not a heavily industrialized city.
Your ideal is Detroit?
I know Moscow (at least its center, and places outside it such as the town with our dacha) much better than you do. And unlike you, I can actually compare it to Ukraine, because like many Russians who think they know something about Ukraine, you have never been there. As evidenced by your seriously written nonsense about a “third world country.”
Here is someone’s video of a tram ride in Lviv. Behold your idea of a “third world country”:
Jeez, what’s with this endless L’vov-fetishizing? Get a grip; it’s a dump, always has been, always will be.
Anyway, Strelkov, I did hear him speak. Once. For a couple of minutes. That was enough – he’s a clown. He should concentrate on dressing up in old military uniforms and imagining himself a hero. Debating – to avoid, by any and all means.
Let me guess – you were never there.
Ukraine is indeed poor.
Uneducated? Literacy rate slightly higher than Russia's (99.8% vs. 99.7% - no difference). The only world ranking of overall university systems I've come across is from U21 here. Ukraine is tied with Greece, slightly below Russia. Is Greece a third world country? Within Europe it was ranked higher than Slovakia, Serbia, Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria. Are these all third world countries?
Ukraine manufactures and exports hundreds of millions of dollars worth of electric cables per year.
Ukraine produces about 3 billion dollars worth of IT services. It's become the largest outsourcing center in Europe.And yet, its economy is growing. While you type this.You forgot the approximately $3 billion dollars worth of IT services. This is amount is growing every year.I didn't see any dumps there. As for "refugees" Moscow is much darker than Lviv, which is 99% European. Industry? Lviv manufactures a few trolleybuses, but the local economy is driven by the thousands of programmers in start-ups and outsourcing firms. It's not a heavily industrialized city.
Your ideal is Detroit?I know Moscow (at least its center, and places outside it such as the town with our dacha) much better than you do. And unlike you, I can actually compare it to Ukraine, because like many Russians who think they know something about Ukraine, you have never been there. As evidenced by your seriously written nonsense about a "third world country."
Here is someone's video of a tram ride in Lviv. Behold your idea of a "third world country":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgK3FRAT7lgReplies: @Andrei Martyanov
LOL.
Unless you have lived there (and you never claimed to have) my statement was correct, your laughter notwithstanding. Of the two of us, only I have been to both Moscow and Lviv (or other places in west and central Ukraine).