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What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation

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Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Ghana

Venezuela

Lebanon

South Korea

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro waits for the arrival of other heads of state of members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America regional trading bloc during the XXIV ALBA-TCP Summit in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 14, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inaugurations in Ghana and Venezuela, Yoon's Potential Arrest in South Korea

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mozambique

Protesters in Maputo prepare to burn a flag of Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party on Oct. 24, 2024. 

The growing economic toll of the unrest will increase the incentives for President-elect Chapo to reach a deal with opposition leader Mondlane, though this would risk triggering infighting within the ruling Frelimo party.

Mozambique's Post-Election Crisis Reaches a Critical Juncture

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 3, 2025

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

Ukraine

Russia

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

Australia

Nauru

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

The flags of Australia, the Solomon Islands, Nauru and Papua New Guinea clockwise starting from the upper left. Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.

Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.&nbsp;

Australian Efforts to Counter China in the Pacific Will Require Follow-Through

Snapshots

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Bolivia

Poland

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Latest

The Port of Houston Authority is seen during a strike among members of the International Longshoreman's Association on Oct. 1, 2024, in Houston, Texas. 

A dispute over port automation, along with the impending transition from Biden to Trump, will hinder progress in newly resumed talks between U.S. longshoremen and their employers, creating the risk of a highly disruptive strike.

The U.S. Braces for Another, Likely More Disruptive, Port Strike

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau&rsquo;s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

France

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

Indonesia

BRICS chair Brazil announced Indonesia's formal membership in the trade bloc following the unanimous endorsement of the group's member states, the Jakarta Globe reported on Jan. 6. 

Indonesia: Country Becomes Newest Fully Fledged BRICS Member

The week from Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 marked Russia's slowest rate of advance in Ukraine since July, while in December, the Russian military halved the rate of its offensive advances in Ukraine compared with the previous month, Agentstvo reported on Jan. 6. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Pakistan

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that the United Arab Emirates agreed to extend a $2 billion payment deadline that was due in January, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

Science & Technology

U.S. technology company Meta will replace its fact-checking program, which relies on news and third-party organizations, with user notes or corrections similar to the system seen on X, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a video posted to Facebook on Jan. 7. 

U.S.: Meta To End Fact-Checking Program

Chad

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Senegal

French President Emmanuel Macron said France had decided to withdraw from military facilities in West and Central Africa on its own initiative, triggering spats with Senegal and Chad, Radio France Internationale reported on Jan. 7.

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa  

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard announced plans to slow the pace of deficit reduction slightly -- targeting a 2025 deficit of 5.5% of gross domestic product, just above the previous 5% goal -- to "protect growth" through fewer spending cuts and tax hikes, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 6, citing Lombard&rsquo;s comments to France Inter radio. 

France: New Government Offers Slower Pace of Deficit Reduction

Namibia

Outgoing Namibian President Nangolo Mbumba expressed his interest in securing fresh Chinese investments to support the development of civilian nuclear power in the country during a joint press conference with Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi, Bloomberg reported Jan. 6. 

China, Africa: Namibia Eyes Chinese Investment in Nuclear Power as China's Wang Yi Kicks Off Africa Tour

Israel's Ministry of Defense signed two deals with domestic arms contractor Elbit Systems to develop new raw materials to help supply the military with heavy bombs in a deal worth around $275 million, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 7.

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Argentina

Argentina secured a 28-month $1 billion repurchase agreement with five international banks, and the new cash will help the Central Bank shore up foreign exchange reserves, Bloomberg reported on Jan 3. 

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Jan. 6 a six-month general license to facilitate humanitarian aid inflows into Syria and the provision of basic necessities, although sanctions imposed on the militant group leading Syria's transitional government, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, will remain in place.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Eases Aid Restrictions on Syria but Keeps Sanctions

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia&rsquo;s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World&rsquo;s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Indonesia: Country Becomes Newest Fully Fledged BRICS Member

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

U.S.: Meta To End Fact-Checking Program

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa

France: New Government Offers Slower Pace of Deficit Reduction

China, Africa: Namibia Eyes Chinese Investment in Nuclear Power as China's Wang Yi Kicks Off Africa Tour

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

U.S., Syria: U.S. Eases Aid Restrictions on Syria but Keeps Sanctions

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