Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Ghana

Venezuela

Lebanon

South Korea

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro waits for the arrival of other heads of state of members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America regional trading bloc during the XXIV ALBA-TCP Summit in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 14, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inaugurations in Ghana and Venezuela, Yoon's Potential Arrest in South Korea

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 3, 2025

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

Ukraine

Russia

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

Australia

China

Nauru

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

The flags of Australia, the Solomon Islands, Nauru and Papua New Guinea clockwise starting from the upper left. Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.

Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.&nbsp;

Australian Efforts to Counter China in the Pacific Will Require Follow-Through

Snapshots

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Bolivia

Poland

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 27, 2024

Bangladesh

Demonstrators on Sept. 5 mark a month since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka. The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more.

The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more. 

A Likely Delay to Bangladesh Elections Will Intensify Unrest

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Cyber

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Latest

Mozambique

Protesters in Maputo prepare to burn a flag of Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party on Oct. 24, 2024. 

The growing economic toll of the unrest will increase the incentives for President-elect Chapo to reach a deal with opposition leader Mondlane, though this would risk triggering infighting within the ruling Frelimo party.

Mozambique's Post-Election Crisis Reaches a Critical Juncture

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

France

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Columns

On Geopolitics

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

Argentina

Argentina secured a 28-month $1 billion repurchase agreement with five international banks, and the new cash will help the Central Bank shore up foreign exchange reserves, Bloomberg reported on Jan 3. 

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Jan. 6 a six-month general license to facilitate humanitarian aid inflows into Syria and the provision of basic necessities, although sanctions imposed on the militant group leading Syria's transitional government, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, will remain in place.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Eases Aid Restrictions on Syria but Keeps Sanctions

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reversed his earlier comments by saying, "I am not thinking about a grand coalition at the moment," after the leaders of key opposition parties all denied the possibility of such a coalition with Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of upper house elections in July, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Jan. 6.

Japan: Denied 'Grand Coalition' Keeps Alive Chance of Double Election in July

Taiwan

Science & Technology

Taiwan asked South Korea to assist in investigating a Chinese-owned cargo ship suspected of cutting an underwater sea cable on Taiwan's north coast on Jan. 3, The Financial Times reported on Jan. 5.

Taiwan: Chinese Vessel Suspected of Sea Cable Incident

Presidential candidate and opposition leader Venancio Mondlane announced that he will return to Mozambique on Jan. 9 and launch a new wave of protests, Club of Mozambique reported on Jan. 6.

Mozambique: Opposition Leader To Return Amid Internal Division

Sudan

The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan welcomed Turkish proposals to mediate the dispute between Sudan's SAF-led government and the United Arab Emirates, which is widely seen as providing military support to the SAF's rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Le Monde reported on Jan. 6.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE  

The Israeli military confirmed that it had been conducting "operational raids" in Syria on Mount Hermon over the past several weeks, The New York Times reported on Jan. 5. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced in a Jan. 6 press conference that he is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party, a position he has held for more than a decade, and will resign as prime minister once the Liberals select a new leader.

Canada: Trudeau Steps Down as Liberal Party Leader, Will Remain Prime Minister Until Replacement Selected

Austria

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), with forming a new government following the collapse of coalition talks between centrist parties last week, Politico reported Jan. 6. 

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

Aides of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are considering placing tariffs on imports from all countries, regardless of origin, that target certain critical sectors, such as those deemed critical to national or economic security, The Washington Post reported on Jan. 6. 

U.S.: Trump's Aides Discuss Narrow 'Universal' Tariff

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia&rsquo;s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World&rsquo;s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

U.S., Syria: U.S. Eases Aid Restrictions on Syria but Keeps Sanctions

Japan: Denied 'Grand Coalition' Keeps Alive Chance of Double Election in July

Taiwan: Chinese Vessel Suspected of Sea Cable Incident

Mozambique: Opposition Leader To Return Amid Internal Division

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

Canada: Trudeau Steps Down as Liberal Party Leader, Will Remain Prime Minister Until Replacement Selected

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

U.S.: Trump's Aides Discuss Narrow 'Universal' Tariff

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support