Water Conservation through Decentralized Rain Water Harvesting under climate

uncertainty

Mengistu Addis
PhD Candidate in Hydraulic Engineering

Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Ethiopia

July 2020
Out Lines
q Introduction
Climate Change and Uncertainty
Water Supply and Demand
Water Conservation
Rain Water Harvesting
q Objective
q Methods and Analysis
q Results
q Conclusion and Recommendation
1. Introduction
1.1 General
Adequate water supply is basic demand for all human being, basis for development

Improved water supply and sanitation is global agenda

More than 31% of world population have no access to safe water supply where as
in Ethiopia more than 62% of total population (i.e above 62 million people) have no
access for safe drinking water and for other domestic demands.

Even though plenty of resources, Ethiopia has found itself in an extreme water
crisis situation, brought on mainly by severe drought and lack of water
management and sanitation resources.

Climate change, increase in population and demand with rapid urbanisation (development?)
1.2. Climate Change
What is Climate?

Ø Is the weather in some location/place averaged over some long period of time (Long
term average of weather condition)

Climate Change?

Ø The change that occurs over a longer period of time typically over decades and centuries
and may not return to it former state unless significant measures are taken place.
Climate Variability?
Ø The change that occurs within smaller or shorter time frame such as a month, a season or a year
and may return to its former state.
There is global argument on Climate Variability and Climate Change
Climate Uncertainty = Climate Change + Climate Variability
1.2. Climate Change …
Observed Climate Changes and Causes

According to IPCC AR-5

ü Significant and clear human influence on the climate system and recent
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history.
ü Widespread impacts on human and natural systems

ü Increased surface temperature

ü Increased GHG concentration on the atmosphere

ü Un expected hazards such as drought, flooding, global warming, rise of ocean

and lake levels
1.2. Climate Change Cont. …
Observed Climate Changes and Causes
1.2. Climate Change Cont. …
Climate Change Scenarios?
Ø Are alternative approaches to forecast/project future climate change using previous
baseline and historical trends.
1. SRES (Special Reports on Emission Scenarios) are B1, A1, B2, F1
Ø Climate Projection used from 2000 to 2009 till RCP
Ø Depends on possible emissions of alternatives

2. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)

Based on radiative positive forcing from greenhouse gases and negative forcing from
aerosols which are unbalanced.
RCP 2.6 (Optimistic) – RCP 8.5 (Pessimistic … A1F1 of SRES)
Includes approaches that combine reductions in emissions and adaptation to reduce
climate change damages.
1.2. Climate Change Cont. …

It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often

and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events
will become more intense and frequent in many
regions (IPCC, 2014).
1.2. Climate Change Cont. …
1.2. Climate Change Cont. …
Ethiopia
High potential of extreme events (flood and drought), wet seasons may be
more wetter and warm seasons may also be warmer, (NAPA,2007).
For the IPCC mid range (A1B) emission scenario, the mean annual
temperature will increase in the range of 0.9 - 1.1 ° C by 2030, in the range
of 1.7 - 2.1 ° C by 2050 and in the range of 2.7-3.4 ° C by 2080 over Ethiopia
compared to the 1961-1990 normal.
Climate change lead to water demand increase and supply decrease which
needs strategic concern
1.3. Water Stress and Scarcity
Water Stress: is less access of water supply to fulfill domestic demand
Water Scarcity: is measure of poverty and is the lack of secure access to safe
and affordable water to consistently satisfy domestic need
Globally About 1.2 billion people live in areas of physical water scarcity
and up to 33% face water stress.
In 2025, about 1.8 billion people will live in regions with absolute water
scarcity and about 67% of the world’s population in areas of water stress
1.3. Water Supply and Demand …
Most cities in Africa are provided with at least 100 lpcd with a 3.5% population
growth rate

most of Ethiopian cities are getting average of 20 lpcd with average annual
population growth above 4% (Ndaruzaniye, 2011)

About 12% of households in Addis Ababa have flush toilets discharging to sewers
or septic tanks, 63% use individual or shared pit latrines, and 25% do not have
access to sanitation facilities.

Risk of diseases in densely populated areas where water supply, sanitation, and
nutrition are inadequate
1.4. Decentralized Rain Water Harvesting
Water conservation keeping, preserving and restoring of available
Water sources
Most modern technologies for obtaining drinking water
(exploitation of surface water from rivers, streams and lakes, and
groundwater) account only 40% of total precipitation
Rain Water Harvesting is Collection of water directly from rain
falling on impervious surfaces (roof tops or paved ground)
Decentralized – collection at house hold level
Why RWH is needed? Due to short rainy season with high volume of RF and
extended dry season.
1.4. Objective
To assess water supply potential from rain water harvesting
through roof tops for rural and urban domestic water demand
Indicating decentralized water management strategies
Roof Tops

Rain Collection Barrels

2. Description of Study Area

Population trends up to 2025

2. Description of Study Area (Blue Nile Basin)
• The basin accounts about 23% of country’s land area and is
the habitat of 37.6% of the total population.
• Densely populated compared to other parts of the country.
• Gets higher amount of annual precipitation ranging from
800 to 2220mm with an average amount of 1535mm
• Densely populated gets higher precipitation
2. Description of Study Area (Blue Nile Basin)

Mean Annual
ppt
Population
Density

Climate Zones
3. Methodology and Analysis
Population data – from Ethiopian census
Precipitation – from Ethiopian Meteorological agency

Water demand – from WHO and Ethiopian Ministry of WIE standards

Average no of individuals per house hold is 5.6 and 7 for rural areas and 6 for urban areas are taken

Ratio of households to housing units in rural areas is 1.05 where as in urban areas is 1.1 and % of
current urban population is about 19.8%.

In Rural areas the average area for housing is 40m2 and for those urban areas is 36 m2.
Mean annual rainfall of 850mm is taken for nation wide analysis even though more than 60% of the
population lives in areas getting rainfall exceeding 1200mm, 1300mm is used for Blue Nile basin,

According to WHO standard, minimum daily domestic percapita water demand for developing
countries is 20 l/day in which only 10-15% is for drinking purpose
3. Methodology and Analysis …
Year Total Pop. Urban Pop. Rural Pop. UAGR (%) RAGR (%)
1980 35,239,974.00 3,668,755.00 31,571,219.00 5.46 2.87

1985 40,775,997.00 4,670,398.00 36,105,599.00 5.97 3.26

1990 48,057,094.00 6,063,524.00 41,993,570.00 6.01 3.50

1995 57,237,226.00 7,884,886.00 49,352,340.00 4.68 2.98

2000 66,443,603.00 9,731,656.00 56,711,947.00 4.58 2.80

2005 76,608,431.00 11,958,476.00 64,649,955.00 5.23 2.42

2010 87,561,814.00 15,083,947.00 72,477,867.00 5.54 2.11

2015 99,390,750.00 19,265,898.00 80,124,852.00 5.35 2.85

2020 110,635,984.00 22,743,529.00 87,892,455.00 3.21 1.76

2025 122,027,143.50 26,397,240.00 95,629,903.50 4.94 2.63

3. Methodology and Analysis …
7.00

6.00

5.00
Annual Mean GR (%)

4.00

3.00 UAGR (%)

RAGR (%)
2.00

1.00

0.00
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

Mean Annual Population Growth Rates (%)

3. Methodology and Analysis …
Amount of Harvested Rain Water (RWH) is calculated using rational formula:
Q = R*P*A
Where, Q = Mean Annual harvested rainwater volume (m3)
R = Runoff coefficient (dimensionless)
P = Mean Annual Precipitation (m)
A = Surface Area of Roof Tops (m2)
Run-off coefficient (R) is considered to account potential losses due to
splashing, evaporation, leakage and overflow of roof tops and minimum
value is taken as 0.8 (20% loss)
NB: Only residential roof tops are considered
4. Results and Discussion
4.1 Country Level
• If appropriately managed and awareness is created, there is a
potential to store about half billion m3 water annually from
residential roof tops only

Figure 4.1: Available RWH for Rural Water Use compared to total water demand
4. Results and Discussion …
300
Total Demand
250
Demand for
Demand (*106 m3)

Toilet
200 RWH

150 Gardening
W. Demand
100 Toilet and
Gardening
50

-
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

Figure 4.2: Figure 4.2: Available RWH for Urban Water Use compared to total water demand
o 40% of total domestic water demand in rural areas and 25% for urban community
can be satisfied with HRW
o In urban areas, harvested rain water can satisfy the toilet water demand and
water demands used for gardening and cleaning purposes which accounts above
35% of total water demand.
4. Results and Discussion …
4.1 Blue Nile Basin
• more than 50% of total water demand can be fulfilled through rain water
harvesting in rural areas where as above 40% of urban domestic demand can be
met through decentralized rain water harvesting only
500.00
Total Demand
DEMAND (IN MILLIONS M3)

450.00
400.00 RWH
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
-
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000YEAR2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 4.3: Potential RWH for Rural Water Use compared to total water demand
4. Results and Discussion …
Harvested water can be used for toilets, cleaning and washing and
for gardening purposes which consumes above 50% of total
domestic water demand.
Urban runoff problems due to increased impervious areas in which
more than 30% roof tops will be significantly reduced through rain
water collection 180.00
160.00 Total Demand
DEMAND (IN MILLIONS M3)

140.00 Toilet & Cloth washing demand

120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000YEAR2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 4.4: Potential RWH for Urban Water Use compared to total water demand
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusion
High potential of domestic water supply source from roof tops
Significant direct runoff reduction at urban areas due to rainwater harvesting
Recommendation
Adopt decentralized water management techniques from roof tops and paved
areas
Detail study and investigation on water demand variation and rain water
harvesting other than residential areas
Thank You
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