Moore's law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number
of transistors in a denseintegrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. The law is named
after Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel Corporation, who described the trend in his 1965
paper.
[1][2][3]
His prediction has proven to be accurate, in part because the law is now used in
the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and
development.
[4]
The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's
law:quality-adjusted microprocessor prices,
[5]
memory capacity, sensors and even the number and
size of pixels in digital cameras.
[6]
All of these are improving at roughly exponential rates as well.
This exponential improvement has dramatically enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly
every segment of the world economy.
[7]
Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and
social change, productivity and economic growth in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
[8][9][10][11]
The period is often quoted as 18 months because of Intelexecutive David House, who predicted that
chip performance would double every 18 months (being a combination of the effect of more
transistors and their being faster).
[12]
Although this trend has continued for more than half a century, Moore's law should be considered
an observation or conjecture and not a physical or natural law. Sources in 2005 expected it to
continue until at least 2015 or 2020.
[note 1][14]
However, the 2010 update to the International
Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors predicted that growth will slow at the end of
2013,
[15]
when transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.
Contents
[hide]
1 History
2 Other formulations and similar laws
3 As a target for industry and a self-fulfilling prophecy
o 3.1 Moore's second law
4 Major enabling factors and future trends
o 4.1 Ultimate limits of the law
o 4.2 Futurists and Moore's law
5 Consequences and limitations
6 See also
7 Notes
8 References
9 Further reading
10 External links
o 10.1 News
o 10.2 Articles
o 10.3 Data
o 10.4 FAQs
History[edit]
Gordon Moore in 2004
The term "Moore's law" was coined around 1970 by the Caltech professor, VLSI pioneer, and
entrepreneur Carver Mead in reference to a statement by Gordon E. Moore.
[2][16]
Predictions of
similar increases in computer power had existed years prior. Moore may have heard Douglas
Engelbart, a co-inventor of today's mechanical computer mouse, discuss the projected downscaling
of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture.
[17]
A New York Timesarticle published August 31, 2009,
credits Engelbart as having made the prediction in 1959.
[18]
Moore's original statement that transistor counts had doubled every year can be found in his
publication "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Magazine19 April
1965. The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year
from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965
[19]
and then concluded:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per
year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the
longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will
not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components
per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built
on a single wafer.
[1]
Moore slightly altered the formulation of the law over time, in retrospect bolstering the perceived
accuracy of his law.
[20]
Most notably, in 1975, Moore altered his projection to a doubling
every two years.
[21][22]
Despite popular misconception, he is adamant that he did not predict a
doubling "every 18 months." However, David House, an Intel colleague, had factored in the
increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double
in performance every 18 months.
[note 2]
In April 2005, Intel offered US$10,000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine issue
in which Moore's article appeared.
[24]
An engineer living in the United Kingdom was the first to find a
copy and offer it to Intel.
[25]
Other formulations and similar laws[edit]
PC hard disk capacity (in GB). The plot is logarithmic, so the fitted line corresponds to exponential growth.
Several measures of digital technology are improving at exponential rates related to Moore's law,
including the size, cost, density and speed of components. Moore himself wrote only about the
density of components, "a component being a transistor,
