Bo Nix, the No. 6 QB in the 2024 NFL Draft, is playing better than that ranking

Normally a quarterback drafted 12th overall would carry the weight of enormous expectations on his shoulders, but Denver Broncos’ QB Bo Nix was not the typical 12th overall quarterback. Five quarterbacks were drafted ahead of him, so five teams decided he wasn’t as good of a prospect as another signal-caller available.

Coming off of his first four-touchdown outing in a 38-6 thrashing of the Falcons, now Nix is playing better than any of his rookie counterparts. And most veterans.

Rookie of the Month is a shoo-in, and he’s SB Nation’s QB of the Week, but Nix was also the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after becoming the first rookie in NFL history to have four touchdowns, 300 yards, 80% completions, and no interceptions.

A player who had to transfer schools two years ago just to build his resume to become an NFL Draft prospect after three underwhelming seasons at Auburn, Nix already has the Broncos on track to make their first playoff appearance since winning the Super Bowl almost a decade ago.

The sixth-best quarterback prospect in a class is not supposed to be this good, let alone this good as a rookie. Fittingly, Nix replaced Russell Wilson, who is the last “sixth quarterback drafted” (75th overall in 2012) to take his team to the playoffs as a rookie.

Same College Player, Same NFL Results

The number one knock against Nix in the draft was that he excelled in Oregon’s passing offense (45 TD, 3 INT, 77% completions) because every throw was practically right in front of him. Could that really work in an NFL offense and is that kind of quarterback worth the 12th overall pick?

So far the answers are: Yes and Yes.

Per Next Gen Stats passing chart, against the Falcons Nix was 22-of-25 for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns on pass attempts with fewer than 10 air yards.

Two of his four touchdowns were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, only three of his completions were beyond 15 yards. In Week 11, Nix had a season-best 9.3 yards per attempt, but a season-low 3.6 air yards per attempt. The ball only travels about 15-18 feet.

Let’s ask the Falcons if they were encouraged to allow Nix to complete 28 of 33 passes, even if the ball only traveled 15 feet in the air.

One of the big reasons for that disparity is running back Javonte Williams:

• Williams has an average depth of target of 0.3 yards
• But Williams also averages 7.7 yards after the catch
• Jahmyr Gibbs averages -0.1 ADOT and 13.7 YAC

That comparison to Gibbs is important because Jared Goff might be perceived as a quarterback who takes more downfield chances than Nix, yet much of that perception is driven by coaching and personnel. Not only does Gibbs lead the NFL in yards after catch per reception, Jameson Williams is fourth (11.1) and David Montgomery is eighth (9.9) so the Lions do even more for their quarterback than what the Broncos are capable of doing for Nix.

At least, that’s the case this season.

The Denver Bronc-Bos

With another offseason, the Broncos could put some more of those YAC pieces in place and while the team won’t be free from the anchor that is Wilson’s dead money ($32 million left in 2025), Sean Payton will have more play money than he had the past two years. Receivers and running backs should be atop his wish list.

And there will be those who want him to trade up in the draft to guarantee that Ashton Jeanty keeps being a “Bronco” after a historic career at Boise State.

Nix has already proven that when you give him more help, he will do better, and making those around you their best selves is the number one job of any quarterback.

Maybe the Broncos won’t win the Super Bowl this season. But maybe this isn’t your usual QBsix. And he’s not...He’s QBNix