Southern California bosses hired fewer workers in early 2024, with job creation running half as slow as what was previously reported.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed two sets of job stats as of June, looking back 12 months, and found the freshest figures suggest 45,700 fewer workers were added locally – or 50% less.
You see, there’s the monthly jobs data we frequently discuss. It’s derived from an employer survey and reported shortly after a month ends by California’s Employment Development Department. The polling is done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and is the basis for these national, state and local job tallies.
Then there’s often-ignored quarterly employment data – the new numbers we’re now chatting about – that is reported by the BLS. This math is seen as higher-quality numbers because it’s drawn from unemployment insurance filings made by employers for all their workers.
The catch? Well, these results come almost five months after the quarter ends. And this delay means we’re contemplating the numerical differences – as of June.
The newly released quarterly stats show bosses in the five-county region added 45,400 workers in the year ended in June – or 0.5% growth. That’s half of 91,100 Southern California additions, or 1% growth, counted by the previously released monthly data.
Southern California’s meeker employment growth may help explain why hiring stats seemed more robust than other economic signals.
For example, the pace of local homebuying ran near record lows earlier this year. And my spreadsheet’s five-county unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in June from 4.6% during these 12 months.
Locally speaking
Now, this hiring-count gap is fairly consistent across the region’s job markets.
Los Angeles County: 22,400 additions in the past year, or 0.5% growth, as tallied by the quarterly count. Compare that to the 36,300 worker increase, or 0.8% growth, shown by the monthly EDD survey. That’s 13,900 or 38% less hires.
Orange County: 8,200 additions by quarterly count, 0.5% growth, vs. monthly survey’s 21,100 worker increase, 1.3% growth. That’s 12,900 or 61% less.
Inland Empire: 13,200 additions by quarterly count, 0.8% growth, vs. monthly survey’s 23,700 worker increase, 1.4% growth. That’s 10,500 or 44% less.
San Diego County: 1,500 additions by quarterly count, 0.1% growth, vs. monthly survey’s 10,000 worker increase, 0.6% growth. That’s 8,500 or 85% less.
Bottom line
Look, this isn’t some grand conspiracy. Sometimes, these two job counts are aligned. Other times, like the latest results, the gap is noteworthy.
But if we want near-instant snapshots of the job market, it seems we’ll have to live with certain statistical quirks.
Plus, we could also look at this hiring gap another way – it’s a tiny variation out of 9 million-plus local workers. Essentially, a less than 1% difference.
And please remember, this is how the statistical system is supposed to work. The more refined quarterly data is the basis for the annual revisions of the monthly reports – a retooling of local job results that usually comes in February.
Nationally speaking
This growth-may-be-slower trend holds true across the nation as well.
The fresh quarterly stats show the US added 1.3 million workers in the year ended in June, or 0.8% growth. In contrast, the monthly surveys show 2.6 million new jobs created in the same period or 1.7% growth.
That’s 1.3 million fewer hires – half of what was previously reported.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
