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Live Presidential Forecast

LIVE

Live Presidential Forecast

We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. These graphics and estimates will no longer be updated.

Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›

Chance of winning

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely

Electoral college estimate

Trump 312

286 to 312

Harris 226

226 to 252

226

Harris

312

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 310300290280280290300310’20’16

Popular vote estimate

Trump +1.5

Harris +0.56 to Trump +4

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +8+6+4+2+2+4+6+8

Chance of winning

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely

Electoral college estimate

Trump 312

286 to 312

Harris 226

226 to 252

226

Harris

312

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 310300290280280290300310’20’16

Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›

Chance of winning

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely

Electoral college estimate

Trump 312

286 to 312

Harris 226

226 to 252

226

Harris

312

Trump

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 310300290280280290300310’20’16

Popular vote estimate

Trump +1.5

Harris +0.56 to Trump +4

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +8+6+4+2+2+4+6+8

Which states will decide the election?

These seven battleground states comprised 93 electoral college votes. Trump won seven of these states, securing victory.

Mich.

15

Trump

Wis.

10

Trump

Pa.

19 

Trump

Ga.

16

Trump

N.C.

16

Trump

Nev.

6

Trump

Ariz.

11

Trump

Live forecast by state

As votes are counted in each state, our model adjusts its estimates in other areas with similar demographics and voting history. Select a state to see detailed results and estimates.

Race
Maine >95% Harris
D +6.3
N.M. 100% Harris
D +5.9
N.J. >95% Harris
D +5.4
Va. >95% Harris
D +5.2
Minn. >95% Harris
D +4.3
Neb. 2 >95% Harris
D +3.8
N.H. >95% Harris
D +2.9
Wis. >95% Trump
R +1.1
Mich. 100% Trump
R +1.5
Pa. >95% Trump
R +2.1
Ga. 100% Trump
R +2.3
N.C. >95% Trump
R +3.4
Ariz. 100% Trump
R +4.3
Nev. >95% Trump
R +4.6

How our forecast has changed

These charts show how our forecast has changed over the course of the night. As a rule, when the electoral vote estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy.

Estimate of final electoral vote count

The lines below include a shaded range showing our model’s uncertainty. As more results are reported, the uncertainty around the estimates will narrow.

Chart showing changes in the estimate of final electoral vote count over time sadf sadf 200250300350 8 PM

Chance of winning the presidency

Chart showing changes in the chance of winning the presidency over time 20%40%60%80%100% 8 PM

2024 General Election Results

Results by state

National Results

Issues on the Ballot

Past Elections